Do the EU elections matter in Britain?

Written By: - Date published: 9:03 am, June 16th, 2024 - 15 comments
Categories: Brexit, elections, Europe, International, uk politics - Tags: , , , , ,

Originally published on Nick Kelly’s blog

Last weekend the EU elections saw a significant increase in support for the populist/alt-right in European elections.

I deliberately avoid using the term far-right. It would be too simplistic and inaccurate to paint a picture of Europe re-living the 1930s and entering fascism. It is not.

The actual result was that across the EU bloc, the centre-right maintained control. But in Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Austria and various other countries the populist right increased their share of the vote. They are not a majority but a significant bloc in the European Parliament. A bloc that could destabilise the EU.

This is significant for two reasons.

One, these ‘populists’ do not agree on very much. They disagree on the issue of supporting Ukraine or on whether to reform or break up the EU.

Two, the rise in support for the populist right in the EU elections, collates with their increased support for these parties at national polls. The last three European countries I visited (Italy, Netherlands, and Portugal) all elected governments with alt-right parties playing significant roles shortly after I visited. I was gaining a complex but remembered that I had never been to Hungary and it’s been years since I visited Austria, both nations where the populist right won at the ballot box.

Why did Macron dissolve parliament and call an election for the end of the month? Possibly he is banking on tactical voting against Le Pen’s National Rally Party in the second round of voting. A high-risk strategy, and one where Macron’s centrist Renaissance Party risk being wiped out.

Why do we not see a similar right of the populist alt-left? Green Parties did make some gains in Europe last week, but to say the green movement is populist left is inaccurate. Some sections of it are, but much of the green movement in Europe, as in other democracies is mainstream and often part of the political establishment. Green politics are mainstream and as such get tarred with the same brush as other mainstream parties. Moreover, they are often the target of alt-right politician’s wrath.

Given the UK is no longer in the EU, will these results impact the coming UK election?

One recent poll had Nigel Farage’s Reform party level pegging with the Conservatives at 18%. The same rejection of mainstream politics and a desire for governments to be stronger on immigration has fuelled support for these parties in Europe, is also helping the Reform Party in the UK. Farage, who played a leading role in campaigning for Britain to leave the EU is now openly trying to replace the Conservative Party as the main right-of-centre party in UK politics. If this sounds far-fetched, it is what the alt-right has already achieved in France, Italy, Portugal and various other European nations in recent years.

While not being talked about much on the campaign trail, Labour if elected will seek to renegotiate the deal with Europe. The UK will not rejoin the single market, in the short term at least, but closer alignment is on the cards. Under the current EU leadership, this will be challenging, but not possible. The growing populist-right bloc does make things more unpredictable.

The right of the political spectrum is going through a significant transformation. The European elections are the latest example of populism gaining at the expense of the old mainstream parties. While Labour is likely to win the 2024 UK election, polls suggest the rise in the populist right is a European trend Britain is following.

15 comments on “Do the EU elections matter in Britain? ”

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  1. SPC 1
    16 June 2024 at 10:07 am

    The EU change is overstated.

    The same groups that had the majority in the past 5, do so for the next 5 years.

    The centre left and centre right grouping numbers are close to the same.

    The big losers were the Green Party and centrist Renew (Macron's block).

    So despite immigration + the pandemic + the Ukraine-Russia war, the far right achieved stuff all.

    The centre right EPP can govern with centre-left and Green Party or with Renew Green Party and ECR (founded by Cameron, now including Brothers Party of Italy) – now more important in EU governance.

    The first issue is Hungary has the Presidency for the next 6 months – but Orban's party has been removed from the EPP group (and has lost a lot of local support to a breakaway group because of corruption and declining tolerance for his confrontational style).

    The second is the rise to importance of Italy in the EU – this will see focus on immigration burden of front-line nations and a focus on the cost of debt.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1472642/seats-won-european-parliament-country-party/

    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/4ab5/live/dd48b1d0-273a-11ef-baa7-25d483663b8e.png.webp

    The real issue is the contest between centre-right (RINO in USA speak) and populist right. Over not just immigration, but economic and political internationalism or nationalism (retreat from collective security, including GW and abandoning free trade). The right wing version of a lockdown retreat from the liberal society.

    PS. Le Pen's party threw the AFD out of their Identity and Democracy European grouping. The AFD is isolated, even within Europe. And Le Pen is dependent on parliamentary victory in France.

    • Bill Drees 1.1
      16 June 2024 at 1:12 pm

      Thanks for an excellent piece on the outcomes of the EU elections.
      Europe is holding its own against the efforts of the extremist right, which has much support from Putin and from American RW groups.
      EU support for reform in Poland worked and its pressure on Hungary is working. Brexit & the Russian invasion is generating a new level of cohesion in Europe.

  2. Mike the Lefty 2
    16 June 2024 at 12:47 pm

    Farage is a waste of a seat in the UK parliament, just a prize spin merchant in it for the money.

  3. Bill Drees 3
    16 June 2024 at 1:24 pm

    What is the effect of the EU Elections on Britain?

    Brexit is not even visible in Europe’s rear view mirror. England is now firmly a ‘Third Country’.
    Starmer’s Labour will not get any hearing in Brussels with their ‘Make Brexit Work’ strategy.
    Brexit will become entrenched by Starmer leading to Northern Ireland and Scotland exiting the UK sooner and joining the EU.

  4. Bill Drees 4
    16 June 2024 at 2:46 pm
    • Starmer has been very clear on his intentions to fund growth in England with Scottish natural respources. He will do everything to block the Scottish Independence movement.
    • Towards that end Strarmer will avoid any movement towards a Border Poll, which is outlined in the Good Friday Agreeement. A United Ireland will precipitate Scottish Independence (if it already has not come about).
    • Under the GFA anyone born in Northern Ireland has access to an Irish Passport. Ian Óg Paisley goes on dodgy holidays with an Irish Passport.

    Starmer is at his core a conservative English Nationalist. He has wrapped himself in the St Georges Flag to take it back from the extreme Nationalists. He will resist the end of the UK happening on his watch.

    *The names of the State is Ireland when writing in English or Ėire when writing in Irish.

  5. Ad 5
    18 June 2024 at 12:44 pm

    It will certainly matter when the UK and Australia become one of the very last two countries run by Labor.

    The US is a militarised centrist behemoth even under Biden, the EU has and is tilting deep hard right in recent elections both for EU and nationally, Canada is preparing to dump Trudeau, even little places like NZ have turned the way of Europe.

    The earth appears to be turning away from the left in government. Ain't pretty.

    Thank goodness for Mexico.