The latest Roy Morgan poll was run between August 30th and September 26th. The headline results of Labour/Greens with 55% (increase by 3.5%) against opposition National/Act/Maori parties on 41% (up 0.5%) were good enough. But they also showed the gender split. That shows that women deserting the right.
I was surprised that the Maori Party was lumped in with the right. Sure they were in the Key/English governments. But when you look at the gender split, it becomes clearer.
Party vote analysis by Gender
| Total | Men | Women | |
| % | % | % | |
| Labour | 45.5 | 37.5 | 54 |
| Greens | 9.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| Labour/Greens | 55 | 46 | 64.5 |
| National | 23 | 25.5 | 21 |
| Act NZ | 16 | 22.5 | 9.5 |
| Maori Party | 2 | 2.5 | 1 |
| National/Act NZ/ Maori Party | 41 | 50.5 | 31.5 |
| Others | 4 | 3.5 | 4 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating* | |||
| Right Direction | 57 | 54.5 | 59 |
| Wrong Direction | 32 | 37.5 | 26.5 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating* | 125 | 117 | 132.5 |
| Can’t say | 11 | 8 | 14.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 |
The National party has a minor 20% lean towards male voters. However Act has 130% misogyny lean towards males – and it is similar for the Maori Party (on small numbers).
To me it is striking that just how strong the voting imbalance is becoming. Lab/Green has a positive about 40% lean of support from women compared to men, and the Nat/Act/MP has a 60% negative lean away by women voters.
I’m sure that the debate here will come up with speculation about why. But personally I suspect the overwhelming stream of bibulous negativity and scapegoating from National and Act and its inability to do anything to do any positive actions apart squabble amongst themselves is the main off-putting factors.
I haven’t dug back through the previous recent Roy Morgan findings too far to look for previous gender related information – because I think that it is only recently that they have been reporting it. August 2021, July 2021 … Feel free to link to them for other readers.
But the few that I scanned through lead me to speculate that the right parties are getting more support from men in recent months, but not attracting women. And that the misogynist support is increasingly concentrating into Act.
However none of it a year after the last election, tends to indicate any real trend towards National being able to put together a winning coalition in the future. It must be worrying. To me they certainly look less competent now than they did at the last election – and they were a shambles then.
Things like the tone-deaf and downright stupid sabotage Simeon Brown (and Judith Collins) tried to perform to the vaccination drive earlier this week – see “Right now Sonny Fatupaito is an essential worker”.
Viruses simply don’t care about who people are, or how sanctimonious dimwits would prefer to scapegoat people for electoral purposes. Viruses only want to find hosts to infect and breed in. Having unvaccinated marginalised pocket populations acting as infection pools is a perfect way to keep a endemic disease spreading out in a epidemic to the whole population – vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.
This would be obvious to anyone who has seen the spread of diseases through populations, and certainly to any mother who has dealt with children colds and sniffles from the education system. You don’t deal with diseases by scapegoating. You deal with infectious diseases with collective actions that constrain their spread.
In my opinion the right simply isn’t competent at collective actions. They prefer scapegoating and trying to ignore problems. The latter is why rapidly increasing our population over most of the last decade while steadily cutting public service delivery per head of population, like our medical system. Paying for tax cuts like that John Key penny-pinching has left us in a precarious position when a pandemic arrives.
It takes a equally long time build them up again to the point where they could cope. While equipment can be brought and installed reasonably rapidly, training people takes years and years. So vaccines, masks, and border controls will be the way forward for the foreseeable future in NZ. Perhaps National and Act should focus on something constructive – like how to make that happen?
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