How does the left win the Auckland Mayoralty?

Auckland’s local body elections are a year away.

And all eyes will be on the Mayoralty which apart from the Prime Ministership would be the most complex and most difficult job in New Zealand politics.

There has been a certain degree of despondency amongst the ranks of the left so far.

Running a good Mayoral campaign takes a lot of resources, requires a well known candidate, and usually they need to be making a splash now. So far there have been no signs of this happening.

But progressives are talking about the issue. It would not be good for us to meekly surrender the mayoralty to the right and we should stand a candidate.

Wayne Brown clearly intends to stand again. And discussions on the right appear to be leaning towards current Deputy Mayor Desley Simpson being their designated candidate in preference to Paula Bennett whose name has been mentioned at different times.

From a progressive point of view it would be hard to chose between Brown and Simpson. The current Mayor has shown flexibility when presented with a show of unity by the progressive Councillors and is able to be reasoned with. And Simpson does have an understanding about how Auckland works and how Local Government works. From a progressive point of view she would be much preferrable to Bennett but in some respects not dissimiliar to Brown.

But with a muscular contest on the right the chances of a left wing candidate coming through the middle and winning suddenly improve a great deal.

Historically we have always had two horse races for the Auckland mayoralty.

In 2010 Len Brown bet John Banks 49% to 36% with third party candidates sharing the remaining 15% between them and Colin Craig gaining a respectable 9%.

In 2013 Brown trounced John Palino 49% to 32%. Post election attacks on Brown by Cameron Slater did not change the result. A group of third party candidates shared the remaining 19%.

In 2016 Phil Goff defeated Vic Crone heavily by 48% to 22%. Chloe Swarbrick polled a respectable 7%, very respectable considering the resources she had for the campaign and Palino finished behind her on 6%. A total of 30% was shared amongst the minor candidates that year.

In 2019 the right did not stand a candidate and Goff bet John Tamihere 49% to 22%. Third party candidates picked up the remaining 29%.

And in 2022 after some jocking around on the right and the pulling out of different potential right wing candidates as polling suggested they could not make it Wayne Brown won with 45% of the vote on a promise to fix Auckland. I don’t think that many will conclude that he has done this. Efeso Collins was second with 31%. Minor candidates picked up the remaining 24% of the vote.

As can be seen there is a history of minor candidates amassing 15% plus of the vote.

In a tight three horse race if a progressive candidate retained Efeso Collins’ share of the vote they could win.

The calibre of the candidate will be all important. They need to be younger, from the South or the West, and ideally be Maori or Pasifeka. They need to represent the future of Tamaki Makaurau and not the past. They need to provide a contrast to Brown and Simpson.

A few months ago I thought there was absolutely no chance of a progressive Mayoral candidate winning. But now I am wondering if they may have an outside change of pulling off an upset.

No matter what it would be important for there to be a candidate to talk about progressive ideals and what a progressive Tamaki Makaurau could look like. Someone to highlight the importance of the environment and of cultural diversity. Someone to champion the outskirts of the city rather than just downtown and the inner suburbs. Someone to work to make the city sustainable and not see their job as to complain about road cones.

The opportunity is there. Will someone take it up?