How does the left win the Auckland Mayoralty?
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11:08 am, October 8th, 2024 - 28 comments
Categories: auckland supercity, elections, local body elections, local government, supercity -
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Auckland’s local body elections are a year away.
And all eyes will be on the Mayoralty which apart from the Prime Ministership would be the most complex and most difficult job in New Zealand politics.
There has been a certain degree of despondency amongst the ranks of the left so far.
Running a good Mayoral campaign takes a lot of resources, requires a well known candidate, and usually they need to be making a splash now. So far there have been no signs of this happening.
But progressives are talking about the issue. It would not be good for us to meekly surrender the mayoralty to the right and we should stand a candidate.
Wayne Brown clearly intends to stand again. And discussions on the right appear to be leaning towards current Deputy Mayor Desley Simpson being their designated candidate in preference to Paula Bennett whose name has been mentioned at different times.
From a progressive point of view it would be hard to chose between Brown and Simpson. The current Mayor has shown flexibility when presented with a show of unity by the progressive Councillors and is able to be reasoned with. And Simpson does have an understanding about how Auckland works and how Local Government works. From a progressive point of view she would be much preferrable to Bennett but in some respects not dissimiliar to Brown.
But with a muscular contest on the right the chances of a left wing candidate coming through the middle and winning suddenly improve a great deal.
Historically we have always had two horse races for the Auckland mayoralty.
In 2010 Len Brown bet John Banks 49% to 36% with third party candidates sharing the remaining 15% between them and Colin Craig gaining a respectable 9%.
In 2013 Brown trounced John Palino 49% to 32%. Post election attacks on Brown by Cameron Slater did not change the result. A group of third party candidates shared the remaining 19%.
In 2016 Phil Goff defeated Vic Crone heavily by 48% to 22%. Chloe Swarbrick polled a respectable 7%, very respectable considering the resources she had for the campaign and Palino finished behind her on 6%. A total of 30% was shared amongst the minor candidates that year.
In 2019 the right did not stand a candidate and Goff bet John Tamihere 49% to 22%. Third party candidates picked up the remaining 29%.
And in 2022 after some jocking around on the right and the pulling out of different potential right wing candidates as polling suggested they could not make it Wayne Brown won with 45% of the vote on a promise to fix Auckland. I don’t think that many will conclude that he has done this. Efeso Collins was second with 31%. Minor candidates picked up the remaining 24% of the vote.
As can be seen there is a history of minor candidates amassing 15% plus of the vote.
In a tight three horse race if a progressive candidate retained Efeso Collins’ share of the vote they could win.
The calibre of the candidate will be all important. They need to be younger, from the South or the West, and ideally be Maori or Pasifeka. They need to represent the future of Tamaki Makaurau and not the past. They need to provide a contrast to Brown and Simpson.
A few months ago I thought there was absolutely no chance of a progressive Mayoral candidate winning. But now I am wondering if they may have an outside change of pulling off an upset.
No matter what it would be important for there to be a candidate to talk about progressive ideals and what a progressive Tamaki Makaurau could look like. Someone to highlight the importance of the environment and of cultural diversity. Someone to champion the outskirts of the city rather than just downtown and the inner suburbs. Someone to work to make the city sustainable and not see their job as to complain about road cones.
The opportunity is there. Will someone take it up?
28 comments on “How does the left win the Auckland Mayoralty? ”
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Given the history of the Right pulling candidates (whether formally or informally) in 2022 – in order to prevent Collins sneaking through the middle to win. I can't see any reason why they wouldn't do so again, should there be a credible Left candidate
Tall ask mickey after the resources weve seen deployed with extra available if required for the 'right' candidate.
Then youve got to overcome the apathy in voter turnout even with an inspirational progressive candidate to vote for.
Some of the characters being made redundant out of TVNZ would be worth a chat as options.
Efeso was a double tragedy. Both for the last-minute right-conspiracy stacking against him, and for the alternative history of what would have happened if he's won and then died.
Richard Hills??
Voted to sell the Airport shares.
I doubt that you're going to find any candidate (or at least not one who has any chance of being elected) who has an impeccable record of voting the 'correct' way on all occasions.
Has a young family – the reason he pulled out of consideration last time.
Needs to be a fresh face not a recycled parliamentary candidate / ex mp for sure.
I can't see the right turning on Wayne Brown anyway.
Mike King
Not sure of your thinking here….
As a candidate? And/or otherwise helps the Left win the Auckland Mayoralty…How ?
There is a less than zero chance of Mike King standing on a Left or Labour ticket for mayor of Auckland.
Historical low participation rates, and lack of encouragement to vote at a mere handful of actual polling stations will doom the supercity for a while yet. Post is virtually unkown to under 40s and services like drop boxes and post offices are under constant retrenchment which makes postal ballots a challenge.
A number of people know the policies needed–sit on the CCOs, free public transport, retain public assets and services…but the degraded voting infrastructure and alienation of potential voters is pushing the proverbial uphill.
Actually, there are plenty of physical polling stations across the city. Well signposted and advertised; and located in local shopping centres, schools, and community facilities.
Postal voting is at the mercy of the increasingly incompetent NZPost. Postal voting is largely used by the elderly and disabled. As you point out, under 40s are unlikely to respond to a postal ballot (or even check a mailbox).
I'd be happy to revert back to voting in person. Postal voting was put in place to encourage participation. IMO, it's failed in it's purpose.
Participation rates aren't an issue because people can't access the polls. They're an issue because they either don't want to, or don't see the value in voting.
I recall being a parent supporting my kid at a local sports event, right next door to a polling station on voting day (lots of voting days now, but this was the last one before the polls closed) – and commenting that I was heading off to vote after the game. In the resulting conversation, most parents said they weren't going to bother to vote – it didn't make any difference.
According to the Auck. Council evaluation there were 136 voting places across the whole region including Countdown supermarkets, and Council facilities such as Libraries and offices…it is a pretty low amount in my view for the geographical area but did attract 127,000 or 31% of votes cast. So, let's have more booths.
https://infocouncil.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/Open/2024/06/20240620_OR_AGN_11944_ExternalAttachments/20240620_OR_AGN_11944_Attachment_99911_4.PDF
I'd certainly be happy to drop postal voting in favour of more booths.
Post is unknown to me now as well. I have received less than 10 pieces of post this year and most of them were from the council and parking tickets. Both of which would have been more timely if they were emailed.
I used my last stamp more than 5 years ago. Had to look up online to see what the cost was and used a pile of old 20c stamps to send it (the glue tasted awful and some had to be held on with tape).
Had to look up online to find a mailing box. Ever since then I courier everything physically because they are almost always legal docs and I need to know about arrivals.
Really – who uses the post these days…. Just the organisations that are required to do so because of old legislation.
Well that rings true–Car Rego label, and Electoral Commission is about all I get now. Digital communication rules.
Anything I send has a printed out label and Courier pick up, am in Far North at Tokerau Beach. I guess older folks at least have a memory of writing letters, postage and stamps.
Because I have a VTNZ just down the road, I organise to do WOF there a week or two before the due date. I just update the rego at the same time at VTNZ for the same length as the next WOF.
It passes (most of the time), so I have effectively added a extra week or two in advance on the WOF (they add the period to the end date of the existing rego). Then I send it to the mechanic for a service and anything that find.
If it has to goes to the mechanic after failing the WOF, I just come back after they have serviced and fixed to do the WOF again. VTNZ then pass it and I am sure of the mechanic.
This process works because I am required to have a current WOF before I can renew the rego. So I come in before the WOF expires. Stupid system because the two bits of paper are for completely different purposes. One says that the car has paid road and ACC taxes. The other says that the car if suitable for the road. They have separate fines and charges. They shouldn’t be coupled.
For me it is way easier to do everything on the same day and forget about getting the rego in the post. It could be weeks before I look at the postbox, and weeks more before I go near the car. Remembering to take a piece of cardboard down 5 flights of stairs is hard enough. I'm not going up them just to get a piece of cardboard..
I'm really lazy about trivial operations, so I always try to minimise how much of my attention I have to give them.
WOF and registration of vehicles that do less than 10k per year is definitely fits my criteria of trivial.
Well, I already know about Wayne Brown, Paula Bennet, Desley Simpson….
What I would like to know from (Auckland Standardistas/Otherwise In the Know) is who are the Left wing/Aligned possibles?
As, apart from Chloe Swarbrick ,who is already Co-leading the Green Party (and wont be standing?) There is fuck all information about same…
When it was previously All On, there was this…Polls aye!?
And all to soon…
Efeso Collins..What might have been? Is there anyone else that could step..up?
Wow, where did you get that quote from – sounds like it was really early.
Viv Beck dropped out.
Leo Molloy dropped out earlier. Also (as I remember it) to because he was losing and wanted to prevent the split on the right votes so that there wouldn't be another leftish Mayor. Couldn't be bothered listening to the loudmouth self-promoter again to refresh my memory.
Yes it was quite early….and i did follow it all the way, as it was so important. Was reasonably optimistic till, as you say the right colluded/dropped out.
And yea..could there be another of Efeso Collins stature/recognition ? Or similar ?
Anyway there was this on voting at the time..
I'd say there is close to zero chance that NZ will move to online voting any time soon. Way too open to potential corruption.
Mickey: Not being an Aucklander, my knowledge is rather limited. Its all well and good positing a left candidate, but from where would they come?Any names out there actually worth considering? Clearly it can't be a Labour or Labour-backed candidate, because Labour is stuck in the neoliberal zugzwang of their own making. I'm not aware of any Green-leaning options, either. So it seems to suggest to me that any Left candidate would come from the ranks of the 'independent' without the political organisation and $$ behind them. A tall order…
[Surely, you can use one of your five approved usernames here – Incognito]
Mod note
Five identities – "I'm that confused"
On the back of my previous idea that flopped, how about David Letele?
Don't worry, I don't have any more ideas, so I won't clog up the thread with more if this one flops. 🤐