Three days ago I suggested that Labour was getting some momentum and that the feeling on the ground is that people are not trusting National and are incredulous at its policies that do not make sense.
This morning the feeling was verified. From Charlotte Graham-McLay at the Guardian:
Support for Labour has registered a burst of energy in a Guardian Essential poll days before the New Zealand election – but not enough to overcome an advance by the populist group New Zealand First, which is expected to propel a rightwing coalition to power.
The minor party’s steady climb in recent surveys threatens to vex what once appeared an easy route to victory for the right in Saturday’s election, after months of polls showed governing Labour languishing. Led by the maverick, veteran lawmaker Winston Peters, New Zealand First recorded 8.2% in October’s poll – which includes undecided voters in its total – up 2.2 points from September’s survey, and the party’s strongest showing of any major poll this year.
Since September’s poll, support stalled for centre-right National, the main opposition party, which recorded 34% of the vote, 0.5 points down from last month. Its support partner, the minor libertarian group Act, slid 2.4 points to 7.9%.
The centre-left Labour party lifted 3.4 points to 30.3%, an 11th-hour boost after months of persistent slumps in the polls. Support for Labour’s leftwing support parties was steady; the Greens recorded 10.6% of the vote (down 0.4 points from last month) and Te Pāti Māori registered 1.9% (down 0.6 points).
National and Act must be really concerned with this result. Despite their huge war chests and conditions that would normally see most Governments voted out they have stalled and are going backward.
The right including Peters is still ahead. But hang onto your hats. Labour has some momentum and this is going to be close.
And the final polls in 2005 had National 5 points ahead of where it ended up and Labour 3 points behind. That sized change could see Labour returned to power.
And don’t forget. Triple your vote. Get two friends or whanau members to vote. Your country’s future depends on it.
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