The Big Mo

Written By: - Date published: 11:49 am, October 8th, 2023 - 48 comments
Categories: act, election 2023, labour, national, same old national - Tags:

This is a scene from West Wing about that all important attribute in campaigns, momentum in the polls.

For a long time this campaign has looked, at least superficially, like a foregone conclusion.  National and Act’s polling was far too good.  They had far too much money.  And Labour’s vote was declining.

With recent polls showing a reversal of Labour’s fortunes and with Act crashing things are turning around.  And with doubts about the accuracy of the polls, shown by the results in 2020 and 2005, anything can happen.

I did some door knocking yesterday.  Some of the people I spoke to were very negative about Labour.  It is not difficult to understand why, the country has been through a one in one hundred year pandemic, an economic downturn due to overseas factors and has been hit by really wild weather.  We are all grumpy.

And National with its huge war chest and incessantly negative advertising is doing its best to bring everyone down.  It must be really hard on your mental health to be negative 95% of the time.

On the doorstep however there was real incredulity at National’s tax plans and its deceptive advertising about the size of its tax cuts.  People are reviewing what they are going to do.

This election is not over.  With an undecided figure of 10% anything is possible.

And Christopher Luxon raising the possibility of a further election is an unbelievable show of weakness.

Do the right thing and get three of your family or friends to vote.  The country’s future depends on it.

48 comments on “The Big Mo ”

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  1. SapphireGem 1
    8 October 2023 at 12:20 pm

    Mickey, I agree that National raising the possibility of a second election is a sign of desperation and chaos.

    Grant Robertson's comment on it is apt: “National’s campaign is falling apart and Christopher Luxon’s bad judgment has been sorely exposed."

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-christopher-luxon-grilled-by-northland-residents-on-national-working-with-winston-peters/FQFK77KHPZH2RETYPH74YMJOYM/

    As an aside, I am a bit fed up with the "we are all grumpy" narrative – I'm not shooting you as the messenger of the feedback you've received while door-knocking; I am saying that instead of being grumpy, perhaps people could be adopt an attitude of appreciation and gratitude for the fact that through excellent leadership and stewardship during said one in one hundred year pandemic, this Government implemented a response that saved 20,000 lives. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499516/new-zealand-s-covid-19-response-saved-20-000-lives-research

    People need to understand that if they feel grumpy now, they are going to get grumpier still if they vote in National, who will instate a scam tax plan, benefit their wealthy mates, make life even easier for landlords, screw over tenants, and further disadvantage the most at-risk and vulnerable people in society. Then, people will have a lot more to feel grumpier about!

  2. observer 2
    8 October 2023 at 12:26 pm

    That Herald link tells us everything anyone needs to know about the emptiness of Luxon, and the bluster strategy:

    "Starting his day at a Kerikeri retirement village, Luxon was asked by resident Rhonda Blackie about how he would cope with Peters.

    The National leader immediately trotted out his usual comments – his preference for a National/Act government, how he’ll call Peters if he has to – so much so that he talked over Blackie a few times.

    Once able to speak, Blackie asked how would he cope if he was unable to avoid working with Peters.

    “I’ll make it work,” Luxon replied.

    Blackie later told reporters she felt a bit “over-talked”."

    (italics added)

    So, as long as nobody else questions, criticises, or even talks, he's fine. What a joke.

    • SapphireGem 2.1
      8 October 2023 at 12:33 pm

      Luxon tries to steamroll and bamboozle people through waffling and evasively darting this way and that – anything to avoid giving a straight answer to a direct question.

    • SapphireGem 2.2
      8 October 2023 at 12:36 pm

      Luxon sounding more all over the show by the second: “It's up to the New Zealand people to decide, the voter is never wrong. And if they decide that they’re putting them back in Parliament, then I will find a way to make that work as best as I possibly can.

      “But the real risk is he hasn’t gone with National in 27 years, and we all remember 2017.”

      He said his preference was a “strong, stable National government”, his second preference was to just work with ACT, and his third preference “and only then will I pick up the phone.

      Luxon added, “no guarantees” to his third preference." From https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300984763/nz-election-2023-live-winston-hasnt-gone-with-national-in-27-years-luxon-warns

      • Bearded Git 2.2.1
        8 October 2023 at 1:39 pm

        Agree Sapphire. Luxon is floundering, and the more he flounders the more he talks …waffles….which makes it worse.

        We only need 2-3 per cent of people to see through him and swap sides for things to get very interesting

  3. Mike the Lefty 3
    8 October 2023 at 12:51 pm

    A week away from D Day, I would have to admit that I still think the left's chances of retaining power are slim, but there are certainly signs that National is starting to realise just what a mess it is headed for it wins the most seats and has to cobble together a coalition of back stabbers, conspiracy theorists and board room execs.

    Hipkins has no alternative but to go for National's throat and show the people what kind of Thieve's Guild administration awaits them should National and its squabbling underlings win. National is starting to crack under the strain and there should be no pity shown by Labour, The Greens and Te Pati Maori.

  4. Thinker 4
    8 October 2023 at 3:09 pm

    TBH, this is the first election where I'm dismayed at the lack of a cohesive vision by all/any of the major parties.

    I'll pick on National, but I'm afraid I could have chosen any one of them, where during the midst of a world economic slowdown, war in Eastern Europe and a local economy that is drifting close to recession and they are campaigning on increasing speed limits.

    ACT talks a lot, but seems to me saying a lot of "Will Rogers" type statements (like his Guy Fawkes rant) rather than espousing a cohesive policy to position Aotearoa New Zealand in a niche position on the world's trade map, which is the only way we can truly aspire to be one of the world's leading economies.

    All of them seem to be offering their own grab bag of this and that, masquerading as policy, designed to catch the eye of the swinging voter. None I can see has a sound cohesive vision for this country's direction, broken down into goals, objectives and a set of policies designed to take the country in that cohesive direction.

    This year, more than before we were sucked down into the quicksand of the covid crisis and the wars overseas, I'm looking for governance that is more about growing the size of the pie than it is about arguing how to divide up the pie that we already have.

    So we should be stopping mining and oil exploration licenses. Good. So we should cut back on farming’s contribution to climate change. Good. But, what SHOULD we be doing to build a sustainable future? In what sectors do we have an advantage, globally, and how are we going to build this country’s ability to seize them?

    Growing the pie helps us all. Dividing up the pie only serves to make some of us winners at the expense of the others.

    BTW, I voted on 2nd October. I'm still supportive of the values I've held for many years and it was easy to vote for what in my opinion is the best of the bunch. But, a generation ago, when I was starting out in the workforce, Graham Crocombe and others produced a book designed to be a guide to building on New Zealand's competitive advantages and I'm still waiting for a party to either adopt that vision or create one like it. https://www.amazon.com.au/Upgrading-New-Zealands-Competitive-Advantage/dp/0195582241

  5. SPC 5
    8 October 2023 at 4:42 pm

    The best hope and the one that NACT and its mates are wary of

    1.National requires NZF confidence and supply to govern

    2.ACT fears NZF will only back a National minority government.

    3.A three way deal would take months to work out and might not last.

    is NZF walking away from a NACT regime and offering confidence and supply to a Labour led minority government (blocking certain policies), rather than be forced into a new election for not accepting NACT perfidity.

    Peters has been through the Bolger-Shipley period, he will have learnt. The no waka jumping rule is there for a reason.

    Labour needs to get above 30% and get National below 35 or below.

    Greens and TPM need to be 5% or more above ACT.

    Then L/G/TPM are above NACT.

    If the centre wants NZF to block an extreme NACT government good, but even better if having an alternative there with significant levels of support.

    (the sad thing is that with no polls in the final week, if it does close and a LG/TPM was possible, those in the centre will not know that when they vote).

    • weka 5.1
      8 October 2023 at 5:34 pm

      are there no more polls?

    • weka 5.2
      8 October 2023 at 5:39 pm

      is NZF walking away from a NACT regime and offering confidence and supply to a Labour led minority government (blocking certain policies), rather than be forced into a new election for not accepting NACT perfidity.

      do you mean L/G/TPM with NZF c/s?

      why would Peters do that rather than L/NZF and G/TPM c/s?

      The thing everyone seems to be missing is that the Greens aren't a done deal. It's up to the negotiating team to bring proposals to the membership, and then the membership votes via delegates on which to accept/reject.

      The big question for me is why the Greens would give c/s to a coalition that had outright climate deniers in it. And if it were the other way around, the NZF c/s option, can you really see Peters doing that?

      • SPC 5.2.1
        8 October 2023 at 5:55 pm

        do you mean L/G/TPM with NZF c/s?

        No NZF offering c and s to a Labour led minority government without TPM or Greens.

        If a National government failed, the first move by NZF would be to install another party to try and form a functional government – it would do this by confidence and supply (Greens and TPM would do the same).

        The range of options with National Act and NZF with a National led government also exist with a Labour led one, as per Greens, TPM and NZF.

        At this point, NZF has signalled they will support National and not Labour, that does not survive the fall of a National led government.

        • mikesh 5.2.1.1
          8 October 2023 at 7:15 pm

          If a National government failed, the first move by NZF would be to install another party to try and form a functional government – it would do this by confidence and supply (Greens and TPM would do the same).

          If this happened Hipkins should do what Harold Wilson did when, with a very narrow majority, the party that he led was first elected: govern for a short period and then call a snap election to try and increase his majority, having first of all put before the electorate a credible program. It worked for Wilson, but in our case the left would need to come together to develop a worthwhile vision to put before the electorate.

          • SPC 5.2.1.1.1
            8 October 2023 at 7:28 pm

            Sure, I'd like to Hipkins start on that now before the election …

            by saying the first policy concession they might make to form a coalition government with Greens would be to adopt their 3% cap on any rent increase and look at windfall profit taxation regimes on larger companies with limited market place competition (banks and supermarkets).

            • Ngungukai 5.2.1.1.1.1
              8 October 2023 at 8:19 pm

              Labour are not really promoting their main policy points as far as I am aware, or maybe I am not listening properly. I shudder thinking what a NACT Coalition is going to do to this country and I can't see a NACT First Coalition coming to fruition, hell will freeze over b4 that happens.

        • weka 5.2.1.2
          8 October 2023 at 8:25 pm

          ok, so Labour with a 36 MP minority government, and NZF guaranteeing the budget each year but free to vote how they want otherwise?

          Won't NACT and NZF just out vote the Labour govt on legislation even with the Greens and TPM mostly voting with them?

          Don’t think you could run a government with only 36 MPs

          • SPC 5.2.1.2.1
            8 October 2023 at 9:01 pm

            Don’t think you could run a government with only 36 MPs

            You could with confidence and supply from NZF.

            That NZF would not support a NACT coalition, or a L/G/TPM one, is a given.

            There is a precedent, National was a minority government that ran on support agreements 2008-2017.

            Support agreements would be complicated as NZF would veto some policies of Labour, and some that Labour would agree with Greens and TPM in return for the guarantee of c and s.

            • weka 5.2.1.2.1.1
              8 October 2023 at 10:10 pm

              afaik, C/S simply means that NZF agrees to vote for the budget. If you're talking about NZF MPs being Ministers, that's a coalition agreement (or similar), not just c/s.

              There is a precedent, National was a minority government that ran on support agreements 2008-2017.

              Yeah, but they had 58 seats. The issue with 36 seats is if NZ was confident it would work. As I said, Labour would be outnumbered on legislation a lot.

              • weka …
                8 October 2023 at 10:11 pm

                outside chance, but if NZF dropped below 5%, the left could conceivably govern.

              • SPC …
                8 October 2023 at 10:53 pm

                If you're talking about NZF MPs being Ministers, that's a coalition agreement (or similar), not just c/s.

                No I did not do that, because Peters has said he would not form a government with Labour and Hipkins has said the same.

                Yes a minority could be outvoted on legislation. So. It would be hard to do so in areas of confidence and supply though …

  6. Corey 6
    8 October 2023 at 5:00 pm

    I personally am a wee bit over the media and activist narrative that the country is grumpy, we're not we're tired and cynical and don't believe a word the polis say, and why should we?

    Excluding 2005 and 2017, every election since 1999 has resulted in a majority for left block or right block parties, all promising change and all once elected disappointing their voters by offering crumbs and merely managing the downward spiral of nz living standards.

    2011,2014 and 2020 saw majority or close to majority govt and again nothing changes. We elect them, they stop listening to us for 2.5 years and then put their faces and billboards and adds telling how much they love us, rinse and repeat.

    The problems we face today in housing, health, education, wages, tax policy, infrastructure and environment have all been caused by decades of short term leadership from both the left and the right blocks.

    National had 9 years of near majority govt and all they achieved for their voters was asset sales, tax cuts funded by gst rises and tax increases every single year and third way centrism.

    In 2020, the most important election in generations, 60% of kiwis voted for left wing parties.

    Once given that support, instead of much needed universal programs, social democratic housing and infrastructure programs or basic tax reform, we got billions of dollars spent on backroom bureaucratic restructurings that noone understood wanted, asked for, voted on and didn't pay for a single nurse, doctor or teacher to be employed or trained.

    The best the left could do with historic support in the most import electoral cycle in generations were milktoast worker reforms, a couple crumbs to beneficiaries, bare minimum wage increases, half priced busses and prescription charges and toothless supermarket and environment reforms and a pathetic number of state house builds being hailed as the second coming of christ.

    Hilariously or heartbreakingly Labour 6 like National 5 and Labour 5 before them thought by doing as little as possible they wouldn't alienate support, but by doing as little as possible they guaranteed they'd lose support.

    When 60% of the country votes for a collection of left wing parties promising major reforms to the status quo after a global shared sacrifice and all we get are internal tweaks and crumbs and two popular leaders who loved nz so much that even they gave up and skipped country, you get a tired, gloomy and cynical electorate.

    Labour and National can't even crack a combined 70% anymore.

    Neither major party will do any soul searching or change in any meaningful way if they lose.

    Can anyone seriously see Labour's excessively upper middle class caucus of lawyers, teachers and student politicians seriously asking themselves why they can't connect with the poor, working class and lower middle class voters the party was created to represent? Let alone actually having a couple working class candidates?

    Not in a million years. Not when half the party membership have dreams of being mps and the only way to be a candidate is to kiss arse and never criticize the party's flaws. You'll never get serious self reflection from professional politicos or wannabe politicos

    If we have a hung parliament it'll be hilarious. It'll mean the people want the parties in parliament to compromise and work together and if parliament can't work together and takes us to to an early election…

    Then you'll see an angry electorate, a plague on all your houses and every party in parliament will be punished for making us all sit through another three months of seeing rich pricks in blue yellow red green black burgundy and teal ties on billboards talk down to us, lie to us and pretend to be working for us.

    I hate national and act and hope they lose but if they do win, for the sake of our democracy I hope they keep their promises to their voters, nothing kills a democracy quicker than apathy.

    But let's be real, Luxon will be another third way status quoer just like Lange, Bolger, Shipley, Clark, Key, English and Ardern and Hipkins.

    We're not voting on ideas or policies or even leadership, we're voting on whose best to manage NZ Inc, sorry I mean the downward spiral of nz living standards

    • Ngungukai 6.1
      8 October 2023 at 5:59 pm

      NZ has definitely been on a steady downward spiral for the past 30-40 years under both National & Labour.

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 6.2
      9 October 2023 at 4:18 am

      Agree with almost everything Corey says here.

      The original post betrays some of Labour's attitude problem.

      Some of the people I spoke to were very negative about Labour. It is not difficult to understand why, the country has been through a one in one hundred year pandemic, an economic downturn due to overseas factors and has been hit by really wild weather.

      People are smart enough to know those are largely outside of NZ control. People I speak to are outraged by Labour's absolute rejection of any serious move to reduce inequality and hardship, despite growing public support for this. To Labour, words like "inequality" and "class" must never be mentioned – instead just useless managerial stuff from people who seem to have zero idea what life is like for most New Zealanders.

  7. Muttonbird 7
    8 October 2023 at 8:42 pm

    Why is door knocking a thing? I see all parties do it more or less but it seems like an extraordinary waste of human resources. It also creates potential for abuse.

    When you're struggling just to get to work, to be at work, to keep the kids fed, to pay $400/month for power, to attend to your wider family's problems, to keep the landlord's agent happy, to create hope and guidance for the young ones and to set them on a better course that your own…

    …that last thing you want is a placard waving idiot walking up your (your landlord's, sorry) driveway.

    Seriously, fuck off already.

    • Ad 7.1
      8 October 2023 at 9:18 pm

      For the obviously uninitiated like yourself, in our system you win power by getting votes.

      The conversion rate of contact to actual vote is really, really high with knocking on doors with people you know haven't voted and know will likely vote for your person and party.

      You would know this if you had been in an actual strong electorate campaign.

      This part of the campaign has zero, zero to do with your bleeding heart sonatas, and everything with just getting the votes.

      • Muttonbird 7.1.1
        8 October 2023 at 9:59 pm

        Yesteryear thinking. But do have a comfortable retirement, won't you?

        • weka 7.1.1.1
          8 October 2023 at 10:14 pm

          it's actually very effective. It's about getting out the vote of people who are likely to vote for you. Parties have lists they work from, it's not like you're knocking on every random door.

        • SapphireGem 7.1.1.2
          8 October 2023 at 10:27 pm

          Your disdain for door-knocking is evident, but your opinion doesn't alter the fact that it works, hence why parties invest a lot of resources in doing it.

        • newsense 7.1.1.3
          9 October 2023 at 12:07 am

          Some democracies don’t allow door knocking. Easy to do some comparisons.

        • Mike the Lefty 7.1.1.4
          9 October 2023 at 9:17 am

          Door knocking was great once when the internet wasn't even dreamt about and telephones were not mobile.

          Its effectiveness in the modern technology era is probably now fairly limited but I think it is more important that a candidate is SEEN doing it because it implies he/she is willing to work hard for success and that resonates with some voters, particularly older ones.

          • Belladonna 7.1.1.4.1
            9 October 2023 at 10:42 pm

            I've had several door-knocking episodes during this election campaign – I gather from a range of different parties. I 'gather' since I've never actually been home when the door-knocking goes on – during business hours, when I'm at work.
            I just return to another electioneering pamphlet, with a photocopied signature stuck inside the door.

            I guess, since I've collected nearly the whole set (only TPM is missing), I fall into the possible-to-persuade category for all 4 parties main parties + NZF.

    • SapphireGem 7.2
      8 October 2023 at 9:28 pm

      Parties do it because the personal touch works. Parties wouldn’t sink so much resource and manpower into going door-to-door if it didn’t work.

  8. Ad 8
    9 October 2023 at 9:06 am

    I cannot understand why after RNZ gave him a free 20 minutes this morning, Luxon gave me even less inspirational lift than Hilary Clinton's DNC opening. Just so banal.

    • observer 8.1
      9 October 2023 at 9:10 am

      "What I'm saying to you, let me be clear, look, I've been clear, what I'm saying to you is …"

      I didn't listen to it. Don't need to, the script never changes.

  9. Ad 9
    9 October 2023 at 9:51 am

    It is particularly weird by I have woken up with more optimism for our side of politics into the medium term than I have in a long time. Part of it was spending the weekend in Dunedin surrounded by humane people who can talk about more than real estate, tourism and road engineering. Dunedin people just make me feel good to be alive.

  10. observer 10
    9 October 2023 at 10:03 am

    Oh, I was wrong. Luxon did say something in that RNZ interview … something totally contradictory:

    "Told that Seymour had again raised the possibility of a cross-party arrangement and that the referendum on Te Tiriti o Waitangi principles was ACT's top issue Luxon again repeated that the National-ACT government would offer strong stable government. He also ruled out a referendum on the treaty, saying it would be "divisive" for the country."

    Luxon defends National claims around hung Parliament, a fresh election | RNZ News

    So to sum up:

    1) Luxon rules out what ACT want most

    2) Luxon says they're gonna be fine together, best buds

    He really does just open his mouth and not even listen to what he says.

    • SapphireGem 10.1
      9 October 2023 at 10:18 am

      Luxon is used to opening his mouth and talking at length, taking all the oxygen in the room, and bamboozling people, making them feel like they've been spun around in a circle and left dizzy and confused. This is also how Key operated—the art of rambling on without saying anything of substance and/or contradicting himself.

      This may have worked at Air New Zealand; however, in the lead-up to an election, where a leader's every word is scrutinised, Luxon's strategy of raving relentlessly and filling airspace is not working and is in fact revealing his inexperience and the chaos and incoherence in his head and his party.

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