Luxon loses his cool when asked about doctoring gang membership statistics

Written By: - Date published: 8:26 am, September 20th, 2024 - 47 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, crime, making shit up, mark mitchell, paul goldsmith, police, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

Unless you have been living under a rock or have been in an intense coma during the past few years you would have heard National spokespeople saying that gang membership numbers have surged under Labour many, many times.

Labour was allegedly soft on crime and the gangs were recruiting faster than the police.

Over the past five years gang membership numbers increased markedly.

Or so we were told.

Labour and others tried to explain what was happening.

The influx of 501s from Australia, beyond Labour’s control, bolstered gang membersip numbers.

The list was weird. Like Hotel California gang members could check out but they could never leave.

People leaving gangs were not necessarily taken off the list. Even dead Gang members stayed on the list. Police conceded that the list was “not for the purpose of counting membership numbers”.

And the process of identifying gang members appeared to be pretty haphazard.

This Stuff article, analysing a claim that Gang membership had increased by 66% under Labour, lays out the issues. From the article:

The first question to answer is how gang membership is measured. As you might imagine, it’s not straightforward.

Luxon [who had made the claim] appears to be quoting figures from the National Gang List. As at April, 2023, there were 8875 individuals recorded on the list. In April, 2017, there were 4915. That’s an increase of 3960 or 81%.

But the list, maintained by the Gang Harm Insights Centre, was established for “intelligence purposes”, police told Stuff – “not for the purpose of counting membership numbers”.

“The information is collected for the purpose of maintaining oversight of the gang environment to enhance understanding of the scale of social harm caused by, to, and within the New Zealand adult gang community.”

It is simply “one tool” helping agencies to understand gang-related harm.

A Gang Harm Insights Centre report from June, 2023 also notes: “[The National Gang List] holds limited information regarding patched or prospect members of New Zealand adult gangs only and is not intended as a reporting tool.”

This has been a long standing problem with the list and with the use of the list. Everyone knew it. But for political purposes National has insisted on claming that the list was evidence of swelling gang membership numbers and blamed Labour.

Until yesterday. At a press conference National effectively conceded that the list was not fit to be used for counting gang membership by announcing a change.

Under questioning Police conceded they had been doing “validation” of the list to make sure that only current members were on the list. No doubt significant political pressure has been exerted on the Police to do so. Without affecting the underlying ssituation and by altering the data National can then claim to have reduced gang membership numbers.

The press knew what was happening.

Christopher Luxon knew the press knew what was happening.

I am not so sure that Mark Mitchell understood what was happening but everyone else did.

This passage from the Herald shows clearly what was happening.

Luxon, Police Minister Mark Mitchell and Police Deputy Commissioner Jevon McSkimming spoke to media from the Police National Headquarters after today’s announcement of extra anti-gang police officers.

But when a reporter questioned Luxon and Mitchell about police removing gang members off the national gang list as part of “sanitising” it – including the removal of deceased people – Mitchell and Luxon appeared to become visibly frustrated.

The reporter suggested it was “convenient” for the Government for gang numbers to reduce and questioned if the Government had asked police to do it.

“Guys, guys, no disrespect,” Luxon said.

“It’s not about the frickin targets, it’s about outcomes.”

Luxon said the outcomes were reducing violent crime incidents.

Another reporter asked if the Government would start celebrating that the number of gang members on the national gang list were going down.

“You haven’t heard us do that,” Mitchell said.

“We’re not celebrating anything,” Luxon added.

Of course National have not celebrated gang membership numbers going down yet. They have to get enough off the list and also let the anti Gang Legislation be in force for a while before they can then celebrate.

For a Government that is obsessed with targets it is strange that they should claim that when it comes to gang membership it is not about the targets.

And at the same time that the Government conceded that the list was not fit for purpose Paul Goldsmith in Parliament yesterday, no doubt using the same dodgy statistics, said “Gang membership has increased by 51 percent over the past five years”.

On the same day that Luxon loses his cool for having his misuse of the gang list statistics rumbled Goldsmith continued to trot out the party line.

Run DMC said it best.

47 comments on “Luxon loses his cool when asked about doctoring gang membership statistics ”

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  1. Macro 1
    20 September 2024 at 9:17 am

    There are lies damned lies and statistics.

    And politicians know this and have been using bullshit statistics to lie to the public for decades. Some sectors of the political debate have more honesty than others. We just need to figure out which. It's becoming more obvious by the day who are guilty of telling porkies

    • Ngungukai 1.1
      20 September 2024 at 10:02 am

      It is not easy for Jo Public to figure out what is BS and what is not????

      • Macro 1.1.1
        20 September 2024 at 10:19 am

        As Micky links to in the Post above – the public are now being informed https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/132478912/national-says-gang-membership-is-rising-is-it

        But this is not the only "statistic" being misused by this current shower.

        144 levels of management , Renaming road maintenance budget to "Pothole fund", the list can go on… We are being lied to on a daily basis by this "govt" . Pity the PM who is allegedly a member of "The Upper Room" christian group doesn't read the daily bible reading for the past few days"- James 3: 3 – 6

        3 When we put bits into the mouths of horses to make them obey us, we can turn the whole animal. 4 Or take ships as an example. Although they are so large and are driven by strong winds, they are steered by a very small rudder wherever the pilot wants to go. 5 Likewise, the tongue is a small part of the body, but it makes great boasts. Consider what a great forest is set on fire by a small spark. 6 The tongue also is a fire, a world of evil among the parts of the body. It corrupts the whole body, sets the whole course of one’s life on fire, and is itself set on fire by hell.

    • Macro 1.2
      20 September 2024 at 10:05 am

      Are Political Party Gang Patches included? I gather they have been banned from the House. But can Luxon now be arrested from wearing one in his Tesla?

    • Anne 1.3
      20 September 2024 at 10:17 am

      Provisional list of porkie tellers:

      Chris Luxon

      Nicola Willis

      Paul Goldsmith

      Simeon Brown

      Mark Mitchell

      Simon Watts [climate]

      David Seymour [double whammy]

      Nicola McKee

      Karen Chhour and last but not least

      Winston Peters.

      Feel free to add to list.

  2. AB 2
    20 September 2024 at 10:39 am

    Will a government that lies its way into power inevitably finish by lying their way out of power? Does any mechanism still exist that makes us confident that this will always be the case? Personally, I'm not confident at all.

    • Barfly 2.1
      20 September 2024 at 10:45 am

      Single issue voters – Tick their box and they will do a great three monkeys impression.

    • thinker 2.2
      21 September 2024 at 9:27 am

      Those of us who can remember (some of) the Rogernomics years will anticipate 2026 when whoever is PM will say "You've done the hard years, don't risk your vote on a different ideology, the good years are about to happen"

      And, if the coalition of the left isn't there with a convincing alternative,, the right will get back.

      It will be the lefts election to win, but I currently don't see them earning their stripes.

      • Anne 2.2.1
        21 September 2024 at 9:45 am

        It will be the lefts election to win, but I currently don't see them earning their stripes.

        I have to agree. Don't know whether its a deliberate strategy or the MSM is ignoring them or whether they are still dazed and dithering from the last election. But if they don't start getting their act together soon they will be out of contention long before the next election campaign begins.

  3. tWig 3
    20 September 2024 at 10:44 am

    There is another simple explanation for some of the increase in gang numbers after 2017 – the police and the new government made a point of targeting gang crime, and gang monitoring.

  4. Mountain Tui 4
    20 September 2024 at 11:07 am

    Great article, Mickey.

    My notes from today:

    Luxon is making headlines today for blowing his cool when asked by Benedict Collins why the government was reducing numbers on the gang list.

    Gang list numbers were unceasingly used by National in opposition to justify why Labour “is weak on crime”.

    National and NZME touted this constantly when Labour was in government. Here is Mitchell in 2022 with NZME’s Rachel Maher highlighting an explosion in gang numbers.

    Mitchell: Clearly, Labour are “soft on crime” and have “failed to keep gangs under control, and tougher measures are needed to get on top of the problem.”

    Despite being told by Labour and police it was not absolute proof of crime management nor gang numbers, National persisted in attacking Labour as ‘soft on crime’ with the gang list. So it was rich to see Luxon and Mitchell defend the gang list yesterday as unimportant and not necessarily always accurate.

    Note: Dirty politics harms everyone – PLUS: As a regular observer of Luxon at press conferences, I can assure you he frequently gets angry and goes on the attack when faced with evidence or questions he doesn’t like. This is why the term “bully pulpit” frequently emerges in my mind when watching him in action.

    • AB 4.1
      20 September 2024 at 12:56 pm

      Senior business people make terrible politicians, and terrible democrats in general, because they are accustomed to the subservience of others. You cannot come from a private dictatorship like a large corporation and successfully take the most important position in a democratic polity.

      • Macro 4.1.1
        20 September 2024 at 1:03 pm

        You mean governing a country isn't the same as running an airline!!? Goodness me you could knock me over with a feather.

        That is a very good point you make. Something completely lost on the majority unfortunately – especially those who fancy themselves as good business managers.

        • Mac1 4.1.1.1
          21 September 2024 at 11:11 am

          This wee thread led me to google what makes good PMs and good CEOs.

          Here are two lists of what makes a good PM.

          Prime ministers need seven essential skills for the office: persuasion, oratory and storytelling, energy levels, intellectual ability, temperament, ruthlessness, opportunism, and populism.

          And also, he or she must have the following qualifications:
          1) be a political teacher with a skill for explanation and making sense of complex issues;
          2) be able to manage a party that is bound to be divided, and lead that party with a sense of purpose and ideological verve; 3) respond astutely to the demands of the media at any time of any day;
          4) link values to policies in ways that bind a party and appeal to the wider electorate;
          5) show a deep understanding of the wider currents of domestic and foreign policy and a developed sense of political history;
          6) read the political rhythms in order to assess correctly the space available to act as prime minister; and, highly desirably, 7) have experience of government before seeking to lead one.

          That makes a good CEO is easily googled and the differences between the two would make a good post for a political scientist or practitioner of the two skill sets.

          How much Luxon scores on these skills is up for debate and it is early days yet, though patterns are emerging. Number 7 regarding his political experience, and number 2 are obvious problems for him, and number one cannot be met by answers that begin "but what I say to you is…..".

          It would be interesting to hear what commenters here think of these PM qualities and how Luxon, and Hipkins as well, would score on them.

          • Macro 4.1.1.1.1
            21 September 2024 at 3:55 pm

            Hmmm good points. You know it has been a topic of discussion since at least 375BC! As Socrates is reported to have said:

            Until philosophers are kings, or the kings and princes of this world have the spirit and power of philosophy … cities will never have rest from their evils,—no, nor the human race, as I believe,—and then only will this our State have a possibility of life and behold the light of day

            Plato's "The Republic"

            A good discussion on the Philosopher King is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosopher_king

            One attribute in this perception of an ideal leader is that of ethics and morality. Apparent in its absence in the list above.

            Just what is meant by Socrates as to the virtuous person? For Socrates and Plato:

            Philosophers are both morally and intellectually suited to rule: morally because it is in their nature to love truth and learning so much that they are free from the greed and lust that tempts others to abuse power and intellectually because they alone can gain full knowledge of reality, which in Books V through VII of the Republic is argued to culminate in knowledge of the forms of Virtue, Beauty, and, above all, the Good.

            On that account alone I think Chris Hipkins scores higher than Luxon, if you take into account the understanding that a moral person is one who seeks social justice for all, not the select elite.

            • gsays 4.1.1.1.1.1
              22 September 2024 at 8:09 am

              The philosopher king is a great concept. It should be noted that king, in this sense, is of a pure aristocracy, the rule of the best, as opposed to what we have become accustomed to- a hereditary monarchy.

              While Hipkins would score higher than Luxon, it is damning with faint praise. Hipkins, and all would-be leaders, are too democratic. Constantly looking at polls to decide political direction. The weather vane leader.

              Perhaps this proposed referendum for 4 year terms is a good thing. Regimes can set and achieve a programme despite an initial lack of approval by the hoi polloi.

          • SPC 4.1.1.1.2
            21 September 2024 at 4:37 pm

            The CEO concern is, managing labour to extract profit for capital, the shareholder.

            The head of the National Party concern, catering to the gated community class (no stamp duty, no estate tax, no gift duty, no CGT, keeping government small and low cost, ensuring cheap access to finance for development of a property portfolio, facilitating an inflow of cheap foreign labour, lax regulation of business etc) and keeping the other people out of government. This by running campaigns against crime or favour to Maori. And of course insisting that assistance to the poor makes them dependent, when incentivising aspiration, via allowing poverty to persist, incentivises hard work and pride in being self reliant.

          • Ad 4.1.1.1.3
            22 September 2024 at 9:36 am

            Good work.

            Worth a post by itself.

            • Mac1 4.1.1.1.3.1
              22 September 2024 at 10:47 am

              Thanks, Ad. There is still the second leg of the double. What makes a good CEO, and what is the difference between that and what makes a good PM? AB began that idea at 4.1.

              If anyone wants to run with that and make a post, good. I've never been involved in running a business at any level save as a worker.

              It would help understand Luxon and other politicians, even Trump.

              Then, a further topic suggests itself- the occurrence, role and effect of sociopaths in politics.

          • roblogic 4.1.1.1.4
            22 September 2024 at 1:16 pm

            IOW Capitalism is incompatible with Democracy

  5. adam 5
    20 September 2024 at 12:05 pm

    Pat over at BHN spotted another contradiction in that interview worth noting about our CEO. At the 4.20 mark if you wanna jump right to it.

  6. Dv 6
    20 September 2024 at 4:14 pm

    I am fricken entitled.

    Luxon

  7. Ed1 7
    20 September 2024 at 5:25 pm

    There was a legitimate reason for a list that included all who had been identified as a gang member or associated with a gang – the police could identify someone as potentially "gang friendly" even if no longer a member – on that basis there is value in the longer list, and having some on the list that are no longer alive would not matter – they would be unlikely to ask about such a person. As a database, the list can be used for a lot of purposes, but yes it is a good idea to keep some aspects up to date when further information is known – for example adding new people, and identifying later contacts, together with other information such as where living etc. but misinterpretation of a list appears to be a deliberate ploy by Luxon and his gang to misrepresent data for partisan political purposes.

  8. Adrian 8
    22 September 2024 at 11:46 am

    Sorry Mac1 you’re not sociopathic enough to have managerial potential . Bugger eh… there goes the 450k a year

    • Mac1 8.1
      22 September 2024 at 1:07 pm

      $450k per annum? Worth far more than that. Anyway, there's be no time with my two jobs, 12 hour days, seven days a week, to grow asparagus and have a beer on a Friday night with intelligent fellows…..