Mana campaign heating up

Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, October 26th, 2010 - 53 comments
Categories: by-election - Tags: , ,

National made a number of large mistakes in the Mt Albert campaign. The candidate and the way she was managed were obviously the killer blows to the Nats’ hopes of winning but the strategic mistake was talking up their chances of winning in the first place. Perhaps they believed they could jawbone the public’s expectations and that would result in more votes on the day.

It nearly succeeded: generic Nat candidate vs Lab candidate polls are said to have shown the neck and neck but the reality failed to match National’s hype. Labour’s actual candidate was the excellent David Shearer and National’s was… well. National embarrassed themselves by talking up their chances then failing so badly.

They’ve learned the lesson. This time, you’re not hearing a peep from the Nats about winning in Mana. Hekia Parata doesn’t even mention winning in her press release on her nomination.

But that doesn’t mean they’re not trying. In fact, they’re trying to win very hard. The Nats’ strategy is to run an under the radar campaign that will surprise Labour and commentators. Key is spending an awful lot of time in Mana, more than he is spending in Christchurch or on the economy, including the whole weekend before last.

What can you do to fight back?

Help out the Labour campaign if you live in the region. By-elections require more manpower than electorate parties can provide themselves.

If you’re in Mana, be sure to vote for Kris Fa’afoi and don’t throw your vote away on a third party candidate who doesn’t have a chance.

Get along to the debates, including the Back Benches special being hosted at Sand Bar next Wednesday. Parata shares with Lee a weakness under critical questioning – her tendency is to attack the questioner. Take your chance to question her on National’s record on wages and jobs.

53 comments on “Mana campaign heating up”

  1. deemac 1

    the Back Benches Mana special is next Wednesday ie 3 Nov, not this Wednesday

  2. r0b 2

    Excellent post Eddie. Pity it’s going to be lost in the rush, because you’ve made some great points here. I had no idea JK was out and about in Mana.

    • I think the whole “If you’re in Mana, be sure to vote for Kris Fa’afoi and don’t throw your vote away on a third party candidate who doesn’t have a chance.” Is silly. I mean, I know that The Standard is a Labour party cheerleader, but given that the result of the byelection isn’t going to change the structure of Parliament, and therefore won’t change policies, isn’t it best to embrace the symbolism of a byelection and vote for the party you agree with the policies of? Or, at least, the candidate who you think represents you?

      • felix 2.1.1

        Actually there are probably more writers here who support the Greens than Labour.

        • Chess Player 2.1.1.1

          Regardless, I think PP meant that people should decide for themselves, rather than just do whatever they are told by your mob.

          But then, that would be democracy in action, wouldn’t it….rather than strict conformance to dogma? Wouldn’t want to have people thinking for themselves, would we…

  3. Thomas Forrow 3

    If you’re in Mana, be sure to vote for Kris Fa’afoi and don’t throw your vote away on a third party candidate who doesn’t have a chance.

    NO vote for the candidate who best represents your values
    Or perhaps you would like the Greens to just step aside?

    Jan Logie the Green candidate is running an excellent campaign and getting amazing feedback.
    let the contest be about ideas and who can best put those ideas across. not about entrenching Labour’s position in Mana where they haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory.

    So get out meet the candidates talk to them all. Talk about the issues that concern you locally and make your voting decisions based on that.
    Its called democracy
    Ciao

    • Blighty 3.1

      You should vote for the party that best represents your values in your party vote at the general election.

      For candidate votes you should vote for the candidate with a chance of winning who best represents your values. If you don’t, you may as well abstain for all the impact your vote has on the outcome

      • Thomas Forrow 3.1.1

        So vote Chris or nobody?

        Who had the best chance of winning here? in the recent UK Election
        Caroline Lucas Green 16,238 31.3 +9.4
        Nancy Platts Labour 14,986 28.9 -7.5
        Charlotte Vere Conservative 12,275 23.7 +0.4
        Bernadette Millam Lib Dem 7,159 13.8 – 2.2

        It was after all a Labour held seat, would you have advised everyone to vote Labour?

        • Blighty 3.1.1.1

          It was clear that Lucas was in with a good chance of winning, so it would make sense for a Green-leaning voter to vote for her. That’s not true of Logie.

    • felix 3.2

      “Or perhaps you would like the Greens to just step aside?”

      If it makes sense to do so, then yes.

      • Rumpelstiltskin 3.2.1

        And in return, Grant Robertson could step aside in Wellington Central for the Green candidate there…

        • Thomas Forrow 3.2.1.1

          Who would probably win, actually James Shaw is a really strong candidate in WC.. and we do have a Green Mayor
          And an electorate seat would be soo nice :~)

  4. Rumpelstiltskin 4

    Kris is going to win. Labour have a 6,000+ majority. Let’s say you halve that to account for (a) Hekia’s doing better than she did last time, (b) Kris isn’t Winnie Laban and (c) is an out-of-town candidate without much on-the-ground support (yet). The Greens would need to nearly triple their vote for Kris to lose.

    So I would say you can safely have the integrity to vote for the candidate who best represents your values and still get the next best thing, i.e. Kris.

  5. gingercrush 5

    Kris Fa’afoi could do a Melissa Lee every day for the rest of this by-election and he’s still going to win.

  6. swordfish 6

    Excellent post, Eddie. I think you’re spot-on on a number of levels.

    Here’s how I see it:

    (A) Problem:

    (1) Media (together with Key/Nats and Right-leaning blogosphere) = have greatly exaggerated traditional strength of the Labour vote in Mana (much emphasis on it supposedly being one of the great Labour strongholds of all time / conflation of old staunchly-Lab Porirua seat of pre-1996 FPP days with greatly expanded and much more marginal Mana under MMP/ National as enormous underdog, fighting impossible odds…)

    (2) So = Very high benchmark / enormously raised expectations for Labour/Fa’afoi (emphasis in media and Tory blogosphere on the idea that anything other than a significant Fa’afoi majority – some suggest at least 6000 – would constitute disaster for Labour and Goff / vote of confidence in National).

    (3) Problem: Mana is not the stronghold being portrayed.

    (i) Two-thirds of current Electorate MPs have majorities larger than Winnie Laban’s 6155.

    (ii) More Importantly, of Laban’s 6155 majority, 4452 votes were cast by people who split their vote (casting their Party-Vote for Parties other than Labour in 2008). This included 1757 Green voters (about 60% of all Greens in the seat), 1091 Nat voters, 695 NZ First voters and 909 minor-party voters. Without the luxury of two votes, it’s more than possible that these 4452 voters could return to the candidate of their preferred Party in the (one-vote) by-election. (For example, the 1757 Greens who split their vote in 2008 between the Greens (Party) and Winnie Laban (Candidate), returning to Green candidate Logie rather than Labour’s Fa’afoi and so on).

    (iii) Simply in order to retain their majority, therefore, Labour will need to win over 4452 people who are not, in fact, Labour voters (and now, in the by-election, have only one rather than two votes). Will they vote tactically for Fa’afoi ? Or will they treat it like a FPP election where their vote for the candidate is simply an expression of which Party they fell most closely-aligned to ?

    (iv) Arguably, then, the Party-Vote may be a better reflection of Mana’s political complexion than Winnie Laban’s Candidate-Vote. And Labour’s majority over the Nats in the Party-Vote in 2008 was just 2508. Relatively marginal.

    (v) With this in mind, compare recent nationwide opinion poll averages (Nats 50%, Lab 32%) to the nationwide Party-Vote at the last election (Nats 45%, Lab 34%). If we assume that these differences (Nats + 5 percentage points, Lab – 2 percentage points) are true across every Electorate, then Labour and National would be neck-and-neck in Mana on about 42% each.

    (vi) And, on top of all this, by-elections almost always involve a much lower turnout. And, more often than not, those staying at home are lower-income Labour voters.

    (vii) It’s true that Mt Albert (with a very similar Party-Vote to Mana in 2008, and with Helen Clark – like Winnie Laban – considerably more popular than Labour’s Party-Vote there) worked out extremely well. But as Eddie has suggested, things were looking very tight there at last year’s by-election until Melissa Lee caused a collapse in National’s vote.

    • swordfish 6.1

      I should clarify, here, that by “majority” in “(iii) Simply in order to retain their majority..” (my comment above), I mean, of course, the SIZE of their majority.

      I should also point out that about 1500 people in Mana in 2008 cast their Party-Vote for Labour but voted for a Candidate other than Winnie Laban (indeed, I was one of them. I and one of my close family members went for the Green (and former Alliance) Candidate, Michael Gilchrist ). The point being that, using my rationale above, most of those 1500 can be expected to return (at this by-election) to voting for the Labour candidate – thus somewhat mitigating the effects of the 4452 moving in the opposite direction. But, of course, only somewhat. Still almost a 3000 vote deficit to make up.

  7. swordfish 7

    (B) Solution:

    The first two are, of course, little more than stating the bleeding obvious.

    (1) Counter the media spin.

    (2) Turnout, Turnout, Turnout !!! Mobilise those core Labour voters (especially in the Porirua East/Titahi Bay/Elsdon heartlands).

    (3) Needs to be a concerted effort by Labour activists when canvassing to encourage Greens (especially those 1757) to vote strategically for Fa’afoi (Rationale: For longer-term electoral good of Centre-Left as a whole / Vote for Green’s Logie wasted (she can’t win) and will ensure greatly-reduced Fa’afoi majority (possibly even outside chance of Nat’s Parata win), thus, in turn, prompting negative momentum in media regarding Labour/Green 2011 election chances, not to mention debilitating speculation on Goff leadership = downward spiral / By all means give your Party-Vote to the Greens in 2011, but please, in the strategic interests of the Centre-Left as a whole, consider voting tactically for Fa’afoi at the by-election).

    • Except, of course, that a lot of Greens don’t want another 9 years of a centrist do-nothing Labour government…

      • swordfish 7.1.1

        But they do want an increasingly Right-wing National Government ?

        Many commentators would argue that Labour has just moved to the Left. Certainly not quite as far as some of us would like but surely better than an asset-selling, beneficiary-bashing, anti-union second term Key Government ?

        And, in any case, more than a few Greens seem more than a little centrist: only ideology – Green (the idea of Left and Right as “archaic”).

    • Rumpelstiltskin 7.2

      It’s huge assumption that electing Kris is in the “longer term electoral good of Centre-Left”. Try out this narrative/scenario mash-up for size:

      (1) Goff is a warmed-over Baby-Boomer who once said that the main problem of Roger Douglas’ ’80s reforms had been in communication, not policy. He is deeply unpopular in the country and barely lukewarm within his party. He is one of the least Green-friendly Labour tribe and would prefer to kill the Greens off than work with them.

      (2) Labour have a bunch of Gen X talent waiting in the wings. Currently low-profile, they are Green-friendly and ‘get’ MMP in a way Goff doesn’t.

      (3) Let’s say there’s a possibility of a Goff-led Labour/Green win in 2011 – Goff’s position shored up by a big Kris Fa’afoi win in Mana. It will be terribly unpopular:
      – With Goff in charge Labour appears to the outside world to be largely unreconstructed.
      – The Greens will be seen to be propping up the left-overs of Helen Clark’s regime before “that nice man Key’s time is up”… (There hasn’t been a 1-term government since the 1950s and generally Kiwis like to give their governments 2 terms. It’s simplistic Kiwi fairness at play.)
      – Goff will get to be PM for at least one term and that Gen X talent has to continue to sit waiting in the wings.
      – This unpopular warm-over from a previous era drags itself through a term or two before finally expiring, Goff retires and Labour’s younger, more talented people move up. However, now they’re back in opposition for a couple of terms…

      (4) Or let’s try out the alternative – Kris wins by the skin of his teeth or even loses. Goff’s position is weakened.
      – Labour dumps Goff and replaces him with a newer model. Labour’s brand is renewed and finally a generation of leaders who weren’t visibly part of the Fourth or Fifth Labour Governments moves up. Labour’s popularity improves as do relations with the Greens.
      – If Labour dumps Goff before 2011 and a Labour/Green coalition wins it will be more popular than a Goff version, because it doesn’t resemble anything from the ’80s or ’90s and the coaltion looks more like a marriage of love than convenience.
      – If Labour dumps Goff after a 2011 loss then the Gen X people take over then they’ll be in Government in 2014 rather than having to wait up to 12 years for Goff to lose, National to govern and then them to get in.

      Ergo, the “longer term electoral good of Centre-Left” is for Goff etc to be replaced by some of the really strong new people, either before 2011 or immediately after. A Kris Fa’afoi narrow win or loss assists that.

      Vote for Jan Logie.

      • Thomas Forrow 7.2.1

        You make sense Rumpel !
        I particularly liked the bit about Vote for Jan Logie

        • Colonial Viper 7.2.1.1

          Ergo, the “longer term electoral good of Centre-Left” is for Goff etc to be replaced by some of the really strong new people, either before 2011 or immediately after. A Kris Fa’afoi narrow win or loss assists that.

          Goff is by far the strongest leader not just of the centre left, but in Parliament today, and he will be an excellent PM.

          • Rumpelstiltskin 7.2.1.1.1

            A terrible indictment of the state of leadership on the centre left and in Parliament.Which is kind of my point. If the last rat to leave Roger Douglas’ ship is the best we’ve got, the centre-left doesn’t really deserve to be in Government.

            And if there’s truly no one in Labour’s caucus who’s as strong a leader (so to speak) than Goff, then (a) it’s remarkable anyone’s bothering to vote Labour at all and (b) it’s going to be a “long,cold night” in Opposition.

            Better then, for the long term good of the centre-left, to turn over such mediocre players and allow a new generation into the leadership, even if they’re a little under-experienced.

            Think of the parallels to the UK: there’s simply no way the Lib Dems could have propped up a fourth term of Labour, even though they were politically far more aligned – Labour was a zombie under Gordon Brown, had been a zombie since before he took over. For the health of the democratic system, Labour had to enter opposition and renew it’s leadership, with a new generation capable of representing the idea that it had cleaned out the defunct old guard and stood for a new way of doing things, relevant to a new generation of people.

            Goff? Really? He’s the *best*? Better get used to Key, then.

      • Maynard J 7.2.2

        Too much of a long bow to draw a link between this by-election and the result of the Geebral Election.

  8. cowbell 8

    It doesn’t matter who wins. The balance of power in the house will remain the same.

    This is a fine platform for some A-grade grandstanding though 😀 Let the games begin.

    • Not necessarily. If the seat goes Green, they will get an extra MP at the expense of Labour, bringing Parliament further to the left. You’re right though, in that the seat going to Labour or National won’t change the proportionality or parliament.

  9. oscar 9

    the only reason labour want fa’afoi to win is because if he loses, tizard is in. I normally vote labour, but the jack up in kris’ selection has left me with little choice, but to either a) stay home or b) vote logie. I’ll probably pick option B, Eddie. At least then I would have voted.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Tizard is in? What the hell kind of disinformation are you on about.

      • Oscar 9.1.1

        She’s next on the list isn’t she? So Laban has gone, next on the list is Tizard. If Parata wins, National gain an electorate, but no more MPs.
        Labour is missing an MP, ergo, next on the list comes in.

    • You’re right, in that if Fa’foi loses, Tizard goes in. The distribution of MPs in parliament remains the same.

      • Thomas Forrow 9.2.1

        A by-election result can change the proportionality of Parliament that was determined at the preceding general election (for example, if a by-election is won by a candidate representing a different party from that of the member who vacated his or her seat).

      • Marty G 9.2.2

        Tizard doesn’t go in is Fa’afoi loses. If a list MP retires, the next list candidate replaces them. That’s not the case with electorate MPs

  10. swordfish 10

    (C) Specifics:

    Core Green areas for Labour activists to focus on:

    (1) The Green stronghold is in the far-north of the electorate (essentially the southern end of Kapiti Coast).
    Of the 5 suburbs/communities in the far-north, 2 (Paraparaumu and Raumati Beach) recorded only average Green Party-Votes (8%), but the other 3 (each strong Arts communities) are very much Green strongholds – Raumati South 17% (241 Green party-votes), Pukerua Bay 17% (139 votes) and Paekakariki a whopping 28% (241 votes).
    (there is some evidence to suggest that Paekakariki Greens were not only more numerous on the ground, but also even more likely than other Greens in the seat to split their vote in favour of Laban in 2008. Paekakariki Greens may therefore be particularly open to voting strategically for Fa’afoi. The only potential problem here, however, is that Green candidate Jan Logie lives there – so may shore-up Green vote).

    (2) Greens also received above-average Party-Vote support in some suburbs of what I would call the near-north (middle to high income areas surrounding Pauatahanui Inlet and northern Porirua Harbour entrance). Plimmerton 12% (161 votes), Mana 9% (112 votes), Paremata 9% (92 votes).

    (3) Finally, 4 large suburbs which – despite only average or below-average Green Party-Vote percentages – contain a significant raw number of Green voters simply as a corollary of their sizable populations. Titahi Bay 8% (222 votes), Linden 7% (150 votes), Whitby 5% (218 votes), Raumati Beach 8% (181 votes).

    Voters in the above 10 suburbs comprise about 50% of all Mana voters, but more than 60% of all Green voters.

  11. Thomas Forrow 11

    I can tell you the word in Paekakariki and Northern Mana is that the Greens are going to do very very well.
    Which should set them up nicely for the 2011 elections which of course is what it is all about.
    particularly as Labour has little chance of winning the GE

    Maybe if Labour supporters don’t like Goff as a leader they should fire a shot over Labour’s bows and vote Green .That might be a better strategic decision in the long run

  12. Thomas Forrow 12

    We have just learned that Matt McCarten will announce tomorrow he is standing on Mana by election.
    That will shake things up

  13. deemac 13

    McCarten can do what he likes of course but what a waste of his time and talents. Pointless.

  14. swordfish 14

    Anyway, my friendlies, time to take a quick peek at the geography of Party-Vote support in Mana (2008), in order to clarify party strongholds and weakspots in the up-coming by-election (even though it’s way past my bedtime and I’m already in my jim-jams with little First World War British and German by-planes all over them).

    Moving away from the nonsense in the media that Mana is an entirely blue-collar, poverty-striken Labour stronghold, I would (and, indeed, will) divide Mana into 5 broad sub-regions (each comprising a cluster of geographically-contiguous and, for the most part, politically-similar suburbs). (assuming that “contiguous” is a real word ? If it isn’t, it should be).

    (1) The East (The true Labour stronghold. Lower/Lower-Middle income suburbs to immediate east and north-east of Porirua City Centre. High proportion of state houses and Pacifika and Maori residents – though I think Europeans comprise a slight majority).

    2008 Party-Vote: 75% Lab / 11% Nat

    Lab/Nat Party-Vote split in each suburb: Ascot Park 63/21, Porirua East 68/15, Waitangirua 80/9, Cannons Creek 83/6.

    (2) The West (The other Labour stronghold, though to lesser degree. Mixed Lower and Middle income suburbs west and north-west of Porirua City Centre (on and immediately south of Titahi Bay peninsula). Mix of private and state housing).

    2008 Party-Vote: 55% Lab / 25% Nat

    Lab/Nat Party-Vote split in each suburb: Takapuwahia 48/25, Titahi Bay 53/26, Elsdon 64/16.

    (3) The Near-North (The National stronghold. Almost a mirror-image of the vote in The West. Middle and High-income upwardly-mobile suburbs surrounding Pauatahanui Inlet and northern entrance to Porirua Harbour).

    2008 Party-Vote: 28% Lab / 54% Nat

    Lab/Nat Party-Vote split in each suburb: Pauatahanui 21/62, Whitby 26/58, Papakowhai 30/53, Paremata 30/50, Mana 30/50, Plimmerton 31/46.

    The remaining two sub-regions have a very similar political profile: both highly marginal but National-leaning (albeit with a noticably strong Green vote in The Far North):

    (4) The Far North (Mixed/Middle-income suburbs/townlets at southern end of Kapiti Coast with strong Arts community and high Green vote).

    2008 Party-Vote: 36% Lab / 40 % Nat / (14% Green).

    Lab/Nat/(Green) Party-Vote split in each suburb: Raumati Beach 34/46/(8), Raumati South 34/38/(17), Pukerua Bay 35/37/(17), Paraparaumu 37/42/(8), Paekakariki 41/23/(28).

    (5) The South (Low and Middle-income suburbs between Porirua and Tawa).

    2008 Party-Vote: 39% Lab / 41% Nat

    Lab/Nat Party-Vote split in each suburb: Tawa(northern portion only) 34/45, Linden 39/42, Kenepuru 55/22.

  15. swordfish 15

    And so, finally, to clarify how Labour won the Party-Vote in Mana in 2008, and therefore to highlight the kind of support-dynamics going on in this by-election, let’s aggregate these 5 into 3 larger sub-regions – each with a roughly similar-sized Total Vote (I’m beginning to sound like a pompous teacher. Brilliant !):

    (1) East/West (the 2 Labour strongholds combined).

    Party-Vote Number/Percentage:
    Labour 6327 (67%)
    National 1518 (16%)
    Total Party-Votes: 9376

    (2) Near North (same Nat stronghold as in previous comment).

    Party-Vote Number/Percentage:
    Labour 2690 (28%)
    National 5289 (54%)
    Total Party-Votes: 9743

    Therefore, although more votes were cast in National’s (Near North) stronghold (9743) than Labour’s (East/West) stronghold (9376), Labour remain 2210 votes ahead of National (obviously because of Lab’s greater strength (67%) in East/West than Nat’s 54% in Near North).

    (3) Far North/South (the 2 marginal, National-leaning sub-regions combined).

    Party-Vote Number/Percentage:
    Labour 3267 (37%)
    National 3568 (40%)
    Total Party-Votes: 8927

    Clearly, the 301 Party-Vote advantage to National in Far North/South alters the picture only slightly.

    And so to bed…

  16. Thomas Forrow 16

    Brilliant analysis Mr/s Swordfish

  17. I’ve no love for National but i think Parata would make the better MP.

    Fa’afoi doesnt deserve it. He’s got no grassroots connections to anything Pasifikan and has been an MSM and political suckhole his whole life.

    Are we to expect he’s suddenly become all socially conscious and culturally aware that he’ll fight on behalf of the invisible Pasifikan underclass now ?

    Nah…he seems to be an opportunistic political animal kissing the party arse and only in it for himself.

    Last thing Labour needs is a failed spindoctor and another housenigga warming the back benches.

    Jeez Goff makes some fucked up decisions. He doesn’t deserve to be PM or leader of the Labour party either but then again, neither does key or english deserve to be running the show and in charge of the countries pursestrings.

    whats a bro to do ???

  18. swordfish 18

    2008 NZ First Party-Vote in Mana:

    % / (raw number)

    (1) The East
    Porirua East 4 (61), Ascot Park 4 (27), Waitangirua 3 (38), Cannons Creek 2 (46).

    (2) The West
    Titahi Bay 5 (136), Elsdon 5 (26), Takapuwahia 4 (12).

    (3) The Near-North
    Mana 3 (32), Whitby 2 (75), Papakowhai 2 (32), Plimmerton 2 (31), Paremata 2 (25), Pauatahanui 2 (19).

    (4) The Far-North
    Raumati Beach 4 (84), Paraparaumu 4 (48), Raumati South 3 (35), Pukerua Bay 3 (24), Paekakariki 3 (23).

    (5) The South
    Kenepuru 5 (7), Linden 3 (58), Tawa 3 (7).

  19. swordfish 19

    There were 1029 NZ First Party-Votes in 2008 in Mana. 68% of them (695) cast their Candidate-Vote for Labour’s Laban, with only 15% going for National’s Parata.

    And just under 2000 people in Mana in 2008 cast their Party-Vote for a minor-party (meaning: a party smaller than Act and NZ First). Here’s the way they split their vote:

    Mana 2008

    Minor Party—-Raw Number
    ——————-Party-Vote
    —————-for Minor Party
    —————in Mana as a whole—————–% Candidate-Vote 2008 Mana
    ————————————————–Laban (Lab)—–Gilchrist (Green)——Parata (Nat)

    United Future—–458—————————–24——————2———————-38——-

    Maori————–356—————————–54—————–12———————19——–

    Progressive——-274—————————–63——————11———————11——–

    Bill and Ben——-213—————————–42——————15———————-26——-

    Kiwi—————206—————————–14——————-2———————–15——

    Pacific————189—————————–51——————–0————————4——

    Cannabis———-133—————————-39——————–29———————-14——-

    Family————-85—————————–29———————2———————–26——

    (The other 6 minor-parties all received less than 20 Party-Votes each and so have been excluded from this analysis).

    • swordfish 19.1

      And so, of the minor-party voters, we might expect those of the Maori Party, the Progressives, the Pacific Party, Legalise Cannabis, and Bill and Ben to favour one Left-leaning Candidate or another in the Mana by-election. The same goes for NZ First voters.

  20. swordfish 20

    And, lastly, a very rough attempt at a map of the seat.

    ————————————————————————————————Paraparaumu

    —————————————————————————————–Raumati Beach
    —————————————————————————————Raumati South___(Far North)
    ————————————————————————————–
    ———————————————————————————–Paekakariki

    ________________________________________________________
    ________________________________________________________
    __________________________________________________Pukerua Bay

    _________________________________________________
    _________________________________________________
    _________________________________________________
    _________________________________________________
    ________________________________________Plimmerton
    ______________________________________________Mana/Camborne___(Near North)

    ______________________________________________Paremata_____Whitby___Pauatahanui

    ____Titahi Bay__(West)__________________________Papakowhai

    __________________________________________________Ascot Park____Waitangirua_____(East)
    _ Elsdon/Takupuwahia________________
    __________________PORIRUA CITY CENTRE______Porirua East/_____Cannons Creek
    _______________________________________________Ranui Heights

    __________________________Kenepuru

    _________________________Linden____(South)

    ________________________Tawa

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    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Strike!
    Today is the first day of the global climate strike. Led by schoolkids, people all around the world are going to protest to demand action on climate change. New Zealand isn't doing it till next Friday (join us!), but if you want to get active early, there's plenty to do ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Squandering our opportunity?
    The Herald has a story today about the 400 MW of wind power currently under construction. Good news, right? Except that none of it is being driven by policy (instead, its about replacing Contact Energy's Taranaki Combined Cycle gas-fired power plant, due to shut down in 2022), and most of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Protect The King!
    To Protect and Serve: When the Prime Minister finds herself enmeshed in the coils of a full-blown political scandal, her colleagues and party comrades have only one priority: to release her as swiftly – and with as little lasting injury – as possible. Is this what Jacinda Ardern’s colleagues and ...
    3 days ago
  • The rot at the top.
    When military leaders cover up and lie to elected civilian authorities, the foundation of democratic civil-military relations is undermined because it is those authorities who are entrusted to hold the military accountable to the public that they mutually serve. But this is only true if civilian political authorities take their ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    3 days ago
  • Challenging the voting age in court
    The Make It 16 campaign to lower the voting age is launching this afternoon, and they have already announced plans to challenge the law in court:The campaign, named "Make it 16" will launch at Parliament on Friday, with plans to take their case to the High Court, testing the rights ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Israel’s elections herald a long siesta
    by Daphna Whitmore The long years of Netanyahu’s reign are drawing to an end. For years he has epitomized reactionary zionism as he oversaw hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers seize land in the West Bank. There are now 700,000 settlers, putting an end to the myth that Israel was ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Petrol companies promise prices will come back down once peace is restored to the Middle East
    BP, Z and Mobil all insist that petrol price hikes are temporary, “in a very literal sense.” The nation’s major petrol providers are trying to allay customer fears over prices, promising that they’ll move to lower them again “immediately” when the Middle East is returned to its formerly peaceful state. ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    4 days ago
  • All Blacks unveil boat for Rugby World Cup 2019
    South African coach Rassie Erasmus says he has no idea what they’re going to do about the boat. In a highly anticipated press conference this afternoon, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has finally unveiled the team’s boat for its Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign. In a press conference that went ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    4 days ago
  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    4 days ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    4 days ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    5 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    5 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    6 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    6 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    7 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    7 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    7 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    1 week ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago

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