National’s credibility problem
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9:34 am, October 6th, 2023 - 31 comments
Categories: chris bishop, Christopher Luxon, making shit up, national, nicola willis, same old national, spin, tax, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up -
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National’s tax cut figures have always felt rubbery.
Their calculations always seemed wooly. And their headline figure, that an average household with kids would receive a $250 a fortnight tax cut always seemed to be optimistic.
Craig Rennie at the CTU has been performing sterling work on the issue. He has crunched the figures and concluded that very, very few families would qualify.
His analysis was that for a family to receive this level of benefit it would have to be spending at least $300 per week on childcare and the family would have to be a two income family and each adult would have to be earning between $53,500 and $66,000.
Very few families have these features. The estimate is that only 0.18% of families qualify.
The CTU provided the figures to Amelia Wade who sent them to Chris Bishop seeking a response so she could complete a story.
This is where it gets interesting.
Bishop decided to go all conspiratorial on it.
From a National Party press release:
“Today, the CTU has attempted to launch another attack on National’s tax relief plan.
[Snip]The CTU ‘economist’, Craig Renney, was most recently advisor to Grant Robertson. Rather than take responsibility for providing abysmal advice to his Minister that has driven high inflation and high interest rates or advocate for his members who would be better off under National’s tax relief plan, he is spending his days peddling nasty attacks on National.
Serious questions should be asked about the extent to which Labour is laundering attacks through the CTU and Capital Government Relations.
It seems there is no limit to how low Labour will go with their campaign of misinformation and gutter politics. But why anyone is taking them or the CTU seriously at this point is beyond me.”
Shock horror. Highly qualified PR professionals who know how to analyse and cost policies and who want to create a better world provide support to the trade union movement.
Bishop should address the substance of the CTU’s argument. It is telling that he refuses to do so but instead sees conspiracies.
Amelia Wade was not amused by Bishop’s use of the material.
For all those who missed the point – the Nats’ spin machine trashed a long-standing understanding about embargoes & broke trust to try and ‘win’.
Not seen anything so blatant the 14 years I’ve been a journalist.
All while not answering a very basic question about their policy.— Amelia Wade (@Amelia__Wade) October 4, 2023
A few hours later National changed tack and admitted that the figures were actually correct but if anyone had misunderstood it was their fault, not National’s. From Michael Neilsen at the Herald:
National leader Christopher Luxon says they knew just 3000 households – 0.18 per cent of the country – would get the full $250 a fortnight headline figure in their tax relief package, but claimed it wasn’t misleading to advertise it as going to the “average-income family”.
The crucial part was that the party had included the words “up to $250” in their tax package document, Luxon said.
The revelation came amid a day of campaigning dominated by strong accusations by both main parties over their tax plans.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins accused National of a “scam” as he pointed out multiple speeches, interviews and press releases where National had simply stated the average income family with children would get the full amount, with no “up to” mentioned.
“National will provide tax relief to working New Zealanders, with an average-income family with young children receiving $250 a fortnight under our plan,” said finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis in a September 21 press release.
Of course the publicity was deeply deceptive and arguably just short of an outright lie. And Luxon’s and Willis’s clumsy presentations have converted what was deeply deceptive into a falsehood.
I've always said "up to". pic.twitter.com/kNfhR6O2lE
— Christopher Luxon NatGPT (@rugbyintel) October 5, 2023
The basic lesson from all of this is that you cannot trust National. Its flagship tax cut policy is in tatters. It cannot justify some herculean assumptions about how much the new taxes will earn and the promised benefits have been well and truly overstated.
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- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...2 weeks ago
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
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The Natzos have totally been caught with their Harcourts blue pants and pant-suit pants, down around their ankles…semantics over “up to” are not going to do it for them on this one.
Tora!–Tora!–Tora! time Labour. Grant Robertson has done a good job, as has the usually tame NZCTU–a while since the right attacked the CTU in such a manner.
Us ordinary types can keep persuading, influencing and assisting others to vote, and vote Labour, Green, Te Pāti Māori.
Notice how nobody talks about the looney left now, that's because that Labour and the Greens look positively normal and rational compared to their rabid right opponents.
The loonieness is on the right.
Rabid right………………….
YEP UP TO 0.2%
WOW
The promised tax cuts are only one side of the coin. The other much more sinister side of the coin is what ACT & National are going to slash & burn to redistribute taxpayers’ funds to the owners’ class.
It’s not just a credibility problem, National’s main problems are transparency and honesty – ‘pretty honest’ is not good enough and only serves to get away with the con & scam for long enough to get through the door and in the House.
Thats where my fear is. Those at the other end of the table (bottom feeders ?! ) and especially the vulnerable , will be the slashed..and burned.
I think we will all be affected by the NACT razor gang, but to different degrees, as you say. Ironically, beneficiaries will benefit the least and feel the wrath of the invisible hand the most. That’ll teach them to be irresponsible bottom feeders and no-hopers. So-called middle New Zealanders will be the new beneficiaries of NACT’s magnanimous generosity but only up to $125 per week and only if they obey the strict child rules.
The Nat wheels might not be falling off (yet !)… but their all-wheel drive seems to be in major malfunction. You could even say..some of their wheels ..are going in different directions : )
Luxon doesn’t drive the limo and it’s all over the road. As a former airline manager, he should know that if you fly too close to the sun your wings burn off and you spiral down. The only parachutes are in First and Business Class.
If you fly to close to the sun, you are firstly in space. Space Minister!
The experts have called National's bluff on their financial policies and both Luxon's prospective coalition partners don't even like being in the same room together. A government in waiting?
Yeah right!
More like the elements of mob rule salivating with the taste of victory.
Wake up Kiwis!
Don't let these crazies get into power.
You will regret it.
I initially thought it was an own goal when National started talking more openly about what they were going to do to those on benefit. Seemed odd as to why so close to election date.
I suspect it is more sinister than that. It is a part of being so confident that they are going to win that they want to be able to say "well we told you before you voted so we have a mandate cause you voted us in". Carte blanche to do whatever they like.
This is a very pertinent point. Once they're elected they'll have no problem implementing whatever they like, claiming 'mandate'. Key's lot did it all the time.
It's hilariously depressing the joy they get from pointing out "up to." The smug satisfaction they get from implying "heh, can't you read?" when really they're highlighting themselves as spin doctors.
At the bargaining table last year at my workplace, the other side proudly declared they promised "a" living wage for their employees, not "the" living wage. I still vividly remember the furrowed brows and Dreamworks smirks they gave each other.
Just listened to a pre-recorded splurge from Luxon on my landline. He addressed me as a Superannuant. He promised that the payment will go up with Nats but didn't warn me that it would be at the lower rate than at present. Liar by omission? Yeah!
To be fair I believe it's the ACT Party promoting the nobbling of superannuation rather than Mr Bobblehead
I think Nats are going to shift the super on to Inflation matching rather than average wage as it is now. Thus the raise will be less and lag behind any rise in COL.
It's referenced in the OP but it bears repeating … in the media Luxon did not say "up to". Don't let him off the hook by accepting National's framing. It's false.
1News report here, start at 1 minute 05 for the true Luxon:
National admits only 3000 families could get its full $250 tax cut (1news.co.nz)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-christopher-luxon-apologises-for-tax-policy-inaccuracies-immediately-repeats-error/54WUSFDZDZGT5EMN6GVZYOFBXA/
Sounds like Luxon is struggling and has been really rattled by the revelation that National's tax plan is a scam
Ditto Nicola Willis, who is becoming increasingly histrionic and desperate.
In government it's called the Friday afternoon dump.
In opposition it's the Friday afternoon apology. Timed to avoid media scrutiny, public attention.
Pathetic.
Well, again- compare and contrast with the dismissive and absolutist language used by the media to discuss the GST off fruit and veges.
And how someone who chose a career selling a product known to cause cancer can manage to be so prominent in our politics I’ve no idea, but that amorality or worse is shown clearly in their responses to this.
And Stuff have retrospectively hidden Malpass’ column where he talks about Labour’s credibility on tax being shot behind a Post paywall masthead. However, it started as a diatribe like this and it continued in the same vein:
…will be a contender for the stupidest and most principle free decision of a major party this election campaign.
https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/politics/350053925/gst-fruit-and-vege-idiot-cousin-labours-craven-desperation
I guess front runners can do what they want right? Not a great way to launch a new paywall to a city that actually elected a Green candidate mayor.
"immediately repeats error"
Wow, what a chump! He shouldn't even apologise this makes him look even shiftier! He should just double down on the "up to" like it's obvious (which it is, or should be).
It is not really an ‘error’ as such, but entirely by design and Luxon & Willis and the rest of the Nat gang have been media-trained to repeat the same line over and over again – it’s now stuck in their program, which also shows how poorly they’ll perform if in government (think Wayne Brown during an emergency).
I know many people who were tempted by Nationals tax cuts tough on Crime story. But they have gone right off Luxon because he never answers a question and just repeats the lies.National are trending down as we get closer to the election day
Except the Curia pole .
NZ first on 6% means no tax cuts for their only coalition party National.Winston says no tax cuts.
Goldman Sachs even say Nationals tax cuts will cause inflation
How come Chris Luxon is able to stand up and blatantly lie to the world that he has always said ‘up to’ when there is so much video evidence of him stating CATEGORICALLY that families with children WILL BE GETTING $250 a fortnight? Why is this not news? Thereis also video evidence somewhere that he said he is 100% honest. That is patently a lie. Just be us key could get away with it he thinks he can as well. Luxon should be called out on all his lies. It is very unfair of the media not to run fair bi partisan articles on the Election. DP all over again.
When Luxon opens his mouth, John Key’s voice and turns of phrase come out.
Just like Key, Luxon lies both overtly and by omission; he then deflects attention from his and his party’s dishonesty by running around goofily grinning, getting attention from a sympathetic media who, for the most part (with some exceptions) wilfully refuse to pin him down with tough, journalistically rigorous questions.
Luxon, just like Key, cynically positions himself as a relatable Everyman and appeals to the undercurrent of malice, spite, greed, irrational resentment of and desire to scapegoat certain groups, self-interest and perverse contrarianism running through parts of our society.
Tonight on TV Luxons campaign bus coverage showed a local confronting Luxon about cuts to regional airports that Luxon was directly responsible Luxon looked terrible trying to run and hide at the same time.He looked like a scammer being hounded on Fair Go!
Lol Tricledrown…… Got him a beauty on camera. Luxon looked like bully pushing him away. The only thing credible about Luxon is his LACK of credibility. I think luxon is losing his lux.
Nact didn’t do themselves any favours by bringing in some incoherent babbling homeless hobo to endorse them. can’t believe Bronagh let him out for the day. What a shambling bumbling idiot.
Two ticks for Labour from me on Monday. My husband has already voted two reds. And our neighbours who weren’t going to vote have now decided to vote Labour because Chris H looks honest and Chris L doesn’t. I am keeping the faith. Left bloc will win.
Absolutely got to keep the faith
And I laughed out loud at your comment about Bronagh letting Key out for the day! He should be kept under lock and Key.
The problem I see here is raising all this "truth" about Nat/Act and what they are getting up to is pretty pointless when it is only here on this site that it is getting analyzed.
We are, here, pretty much converted to their antics.
Get out in the real world and the general voter is not getting the details and is being fed the Nat version.
How do we transfer these discussions back to them in a way that will take notice and seriously look at their voting options?|
Otherwise, it's like a ship with no rudder here.
JM2CW.