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Nats positioning for 2017

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, November 28th, 2015 - 48 comments
Categories: john key, leadership, national, Steven Joyce - Tags: , , ,

A couple of months ago Phil Goff pointed out that Judith Collins has started positioning herself for leadership of the Nats. Nothing Matthew Hooton says can be taken at face value, but yesterday he was playing games on the leadership issue too (NBR paywalled):

Joyce associates openly talking about leadership change

The rumour goes that Mr Key, like his idol Richie McCaw, will want to go out on a high and on his own terms. His knighthood depends on him handing over to a National prime minister rather than losing an election to Labour. And while his poll numbers are still strong, he now consistently rates below the National Party, with about a quarter of National voters naming someone else as their preferred prime minister. For the first time, a campaign based solely on “Team Key” would drag National down. The next election campaign will need to be less focused on the leader, which Mr Key may not enjoy.

The reason Mr Key and Mr Joyce are probably right to back themselves to ram through a leadership change is that the National Party caucus has been trained to be docile these last seven years. Caucus meetings are shorter than ever and are dominated by briefings by Messrs Key and Joyce. MPs are not encouraged to ask questions or even speak.

It still seems improbable. But, then again, would any National backbencher have the courage and integrity to get up and say no?

Steven Joyce denies it (as he would). Who knows what’s going on, I don’t. But I do know that when it comes to 2017 Mike Hosking (unbelievably) was much closer to the truth with his concerns in this piece:

Why John Key’s dream run is coming to an end – rising unemployment

I think I might have bad news for the Government.

Treasury and the Reserve Bank are forecasting unemployment to rise. If the Government enters election year with the forecast unemployment numbers, then it has major trouble.

The forecast seems universally to be 6 per cent-plus. Anything with a six in it is a major. Why? Because it used to be 4 per cent. For all the growth and success and rock star headlines, you have to have something tangible to show for that. A rising unemployment rate isn’t a good look.

If things continue the way they appear to be going, then we’ll be getting spanked by other countries.

All of this — if it comes to pass — should be making the Government nervous. Nothing shifts a vote like uncertainty, and personal uncertainty at that. …

National don’t have a plan for jobs, never had, never will. So the numbers are going to stay bad, keeping the pressure on. When even the slavishly loyal Mike Hosking is sending warnings about 2017, then Key should be worried.

48 comments on “Nats positioning for 2017”

  1. Lanthanide 1

    I don’t think a figure in the low sixes is a death knell for National. Certainly a headwind, but there have to be other circumstances and other contenders in the race for it to be a major factor.

  2. Just Me 2

    SInce the end of the RWC Key has hardly been in NZ to really care about NZ and NZers. It’s like he wants to be out of this country as much as possible(at our expense naturally)until he can bugger off to his beloved Hawaii(and US)for the Christmas/New Year break.
    I get the impression he wants out of this – in his words probably – godforsaken hell-hole that is New Zealand(or as he calls our country New Zilland). He no longer has interest in this country.
    I am concerned about the number of unrestrained migration flowing into our country and wonder if they too are affecting/influencing the employment area.Cheaper workers and especially those from Asia and there is no need to employ a New Zealander.
    Just recently we heard that Skycity would be bringing in overseas workers for the construction of yet another “Convention Centre” in Auckland. I also heard that unemployed people in the National seat of Whangarei are being bus-ed down to the Waikato to work on the expressway. Unemployed people in the Waikato cannot apply for any jobs available for the construction of the expressway.Why?
    This govermnet does alot of manipulation of data to suit itself. I am sure more closer to the election Key will wheel out say the Whangarei electorate and boast as how much unemployment is down in that region compared to say Winston Peter’s electorate of Northland.
    The constant and annoying thing about John Key is he MUST be mentioned in the news everyday as if we NZers must be reminded of him. It’s like he constantly seeks attention and to be the centre of attention. He loves and adores positive attention and throw childish temper tantrums whenever someone like an Opposition MP; catches him out.
    I will be voting Labour in the next election. John Key is a failure and his legacy will be that his government has created more debt for us remaining NZers to pay back.

    • And when he’s so desperate for attention that he hijacks the planning of Jonah Lomu’s funeral to press the case for a flag change. What does that say about him other than he has insatiable addiction to media attention, good or bad, ugly or beautiful.

    • Thewalrus 2.2

      You wonder if an increase in immigration is effecting unemployment? If you create 10 jobs and 15 people turn up 5 are going to miss out. There have been job growth but rather than more people leaving more are arriving. It’s simple math.

      If labour had been in power the last 7 years do you honestly believe that the same debt if not more wouldn’t have occurred. And if so please explain how this would have happened.

      To vote labour surely you would want people who have the ability to run the country. Unfortunately they have all left. Get rid of David Parker, Phil Goff, David Cunliffe, Grant Robertson and a good lot of the Back benchers replace them with some credible, intelligent candidates and give Angry Andy some charisma and a smile and you would have a Labour Party that has a chance but the average Kiwi will not vote in the pile of self serving rabble that currently makes up what was once a great political party.

      Surely a vote should be based on more than lets get rid of Key as whether you like him or not it has got to be better than any alternative that is currently present.

      I would vote labour again if the aforementioned happens but not before.

      • Daniel Cale 2.2.1

        Beautifully said. Labour is a rabble, a sad vestige of a once great party.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 2.2.1.1

          The cognitive dissonance, it burns.

          • Daniel Cale 2.2.1.1.1

            Have you seen the trend line in support for Labour since it’s formation, OAB? David Farrar posted it. It’s down, down, down. No cognitive dissonance here, just the reality if where both parties stand.

      • Phil 2.2.2

        if an increase in immigration is effecting unemployment? If you create 10 jobs and 15 people turn up 5 are going to miss out. There have been job growth but rather than more people leaving more are arriving. It’s simple math.

        The answer is, basically, yes.

        However, keep in mind that it’s NOT JUST an immigration inflow that is going on here. We also have a very low number of departures – more than ever before, Kiwi’s are choosing to stay in NZ rather than move abroad.

  3. Tracey 3

    Hoots has been VERY quiet recently… and especially absent from TS since his one week post-TPP meme run.

    I love how he suggested it is public knowledge about Joyce etc… but only once he (Hoots) publicised it.

    I hope they start doing to each other what they have done to the vulnerable of this nation and soon. There’s always a pay off… and that’s a language Keys peaks… and I have maintained for a long time on this site that he needs to step down before National loses to ensure his covetted knighthood, which to show his dedication to NZ, he will receive, not from you GG but in London from the Queen…

    • veutoviper 3.1

      “Hoots has been VERY quiet recently… and especially absent from TS since his one week post-TPP meme run.”

      He may have been quiet here, but not so on Twitter, and he is still doing his usual radio slots etc.

      It will be interesting to see whether any substantiation ensues for his latest contention re Joyce. Discussion elsewhere on blogs and social media over recent months claim that Hoots insider knowledge etc within National circles has diminished over recent years; and that he blames Joyce in particular for this.

      Much as I don’t agree with much of what Hoots says or put much weight on his claims, he has made a number of changes in his life this year (eg alcohol) and I will give him credit for that.

      He has been studying philosophy at uni this year, and tweeted yesterday
      Shouldn’t do this, but can’t stop myself: I GOT AN A+ IN METAPHYSICS3!!!

      https://twitter.com/MatthewHootonNZ/status/670075250852438020

      So, congratulations, Hoots.

      • Tracey 3.1.1

        Agree. Also ran a marathon I believe.

        What do you make of his absence from here then? Removing negativity form his life? 😉

    • David h 3.2

      I think the hue and cry would be out of this world if they gave Key a knighthood any time soon. The bigger laugh would be labour again abolishing this old fashioned them and us practice, just after Key gives himself one.

  4. BM 4

    More likely Key will run in 2017 and start grooming his successor about half way through the next term, that’s if he wins.

    • Tracey 4.1

      based on what, a hunch or wishful thinking?

      • BM 4.1.1

        Seems fairly obvious, 4 terms will make him one of New Zealands most successful PM ever, not a bad score to retire on and you also leave the field undefeated.

        Also, Key, not been a typical public servant trougher has no need to spend the rest of his life sucking off the tax payers tit.

        He could retire tomorrow and never have to work again.

        • Tracey 4.1.1.1

          It’s apparently not so obvious to Hoots. 4 terms will make him one of the longest serving PM’s ever. Note the subtle difference. My God your sporting anology reveals so much.

          “not been a typical public servant trougher has no need to spend the rest of his life sucking off the tax payers tit.” Like BIll English you mean?

        • Brendon Harre -Left wing Liberal 4.1.1.2

          I think this is just a rumour that again refocuses all the attention back on John Key. I for one am not going to spend the next two years wondering if John Key is going to quit or not. When he goes good riddance. Until then I am going to assume he is the leader of a conservative government that is preventing progressive reform on many issues.

          Also about the trougher issue. John Key as a rich man could never have gone to the White House, played golf with the President, attended ceremonies at Buckingham Palace…. His address book has been extended in a way that money could not buy. So the thought that John Key is in politics for no personal benefit to himself is I believe false.

          • Tracey 4.1.1.2.1

            I agree with ALL you have just written Brendan. There is more than one kind of trougher… BM is smitten

          • Chooky 4.1.1.2.2

            +100 Brenon Harre…Key will stay as long as it suits him…unless he is forcibly ousted next Election

            ie “His address book has been extended in a way that money could not buy. So the thought that John Key is in politics for no personal benefit to himself is I believe false.”

          • David h 4.1.1.2.3

            The only person that John key is in politics for is. John Key.

        • David h 4.1.1.3

          “Also, Key, not been a typical public servant trougher has no need to spend the rest of his life sucking off the tax payers tit.”

          But you know he’s going to Suck on said teat, for as long as he can get away with it. It’s not a case of Need, it’s a case of GREED!

          • red-blooded 4.1.1.3.1

            Hey, can we be a bit careful about buying into the language and viewpoint of the right, that anyone paid by (or paid a pension by) the state is “sucking of the taxpayer’s tit”? This is the kind of dismissive crap that gets thrown at researchers, university staff, teachers, public servants….and beneficiaries, those on superannuation, people reliant on ACC etc.

            I’m not speaking up for Key (he’s a creep). I am unsettled by this kind of thinking, though.

  5. North 5

    Neither. Just idolatry. Whatever happens it’ll be consistent with Key being a gift to the nation. You know……moronic stuff.

    • Tracey 5.1

      key will “put down” the potential coup, which may or may not have happened, and will be hailed as a strong leader for it… or he is rolled.

  6. Stephen 6

    Hasn’t the Hoot been in the Collin’s camp.

    • Tracey 6.1

      He’s been in anyone’s camp who isn’t Key since Key “lied” about him.

      I often wonder what people like Hoots could achieve if he put his obvious abilities into something less self serving…. 😉

      • Once was Tim 6.1.1

        I’d also be careful about giving Hoots too much credit until you see signs of atonement for some of the obvious bullshit and spin doctoring.
        As I commented on another thread (I think in agreement with something you said), Hoots has never really liked Key – and I suspect that’s because he saw through much of his bullshit from the very start (unlike much of muddle NewZull), yet he’s always been prepared to use it to his own advantage.
        I’ll have to start listening to Nine to Noon again, and when I hear him refraining from lapses into hissing and hissy fits, I’ll start giving him credit (whether or not he becomes an A grade metaphysician).
        Given the absolute reliance on lies and propaganda, dirty politics that his ilk want to present as being normal ‘these days’, and all the incremental chipping away at democratic institutions for personal gain – I don’t think its too unreasonable to expect Hoots to fess up to some of his sins if he’s really having an epiphany.

    • Karen 6.2

      Yes.
      Joyce is not right wing enough for Hooton.

  7. Skinny 7

    “Treasury and the Reserve Bank are forecasting unemployment to rise. If the Government enters election year with the forecast unemployment numbers, then it has major trouble.”

    The National Government’s books will be in a mess and they are fudging figures of the true cost of their pet projects, and taxpayer handouts to their mates. Their attacking workers in the public and state sector again, just like they did not long after taking office, by cutting jobs. There is a pattern developing of job cut announcements being made in these sectors. Rumor’s are cirulating that meetings have been going on with the Govt and heads of the Tories hand picked Boards, to slash front line jobs to cut costs.

    The smartest thing to do would be for all public and state sector workers to band together and fight back with well organised campaigns.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      the question is, will the NZ voter trust Little and Robertson more in an environment of uncertain and deteriorating global economic conditions.

      Or will they hand it back to the “safe pair of hands”: National.

  8. Tiger Mountain 8

    dear leader has been written off a few times and is now just a little lower consistently in his ratings, so our pony pulling shower peeing PM will lead the Nats into 2017 unless he does something really bad in tory eyes–e.g. oversees ‘the biggie’; a property price crash–

    other stuff such as dirty tricks, warrantless snooping, war on the poor and selling state assets is of minuscule concern it seems to the rentier kiwis on the munt that vote for the scumbag

  9. Tautuhi 9

    Rumour has it there may be a coup in the pipeline, Key will put the fire out early.

  10. Once was Tim 10

    (in case the following becomes ‘unsequenced’ resulting from some of the peculiarities of the website – its a response to veuto and Tracey)

    I’d also be careful about giving Hoots too much credit until you see signs of atonement for some of the obvious bullshit and spin doctoring.
    As I commented on another thread (I think in agreement with something you said), Hoots has never really liked Key – and I suspect that’s because he saw through much of his bullshit from the very start (unlike much of muddle NewZull), yet he’s always been prepared to use it to his own advantage.
    I’ll have to start listening to Nine to Noon again, and when I hear him refraining from lapses into hissing and hissy fits, I’ll start giving him credit (whether or not he becomes an A grade metaphysician).
    Given the absolute reliance on lies and propaganda, dirty politics that his ilk want to present as being normal ‘these days’, and all the incremental chipping away at democratic institutions for personal gain – I don’t think its too unreasonable to expect Hoots to fess up to some of his sins if he’s really having an epiphany.

    Maybe about to be a double post and an “I think you already said that”.

    If so, I could become an ideal candidate for a position at Curia or Excel-whateva (going forward, as a matter of fek, ekshully, cos it seems I might be ‘on the same page’ – not that I’m ‘positioning’ myseff, or looking for a cushy earn)

  11. The Outrider 11

    It would be a signal of changing times at the Nats but we’ve heard these rumours often over the years. While it would be good to see the back of Key, his departure would not guarantee success for the left in the 2017 election. Work has to be done on strategy that squeezes every drop out of MMP. Something that was woefully inadequate last year, and in 2017. We have to work much smarter from now on.

  12. infused 12

    Rumoar has it john key eats babies.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1

      His policies lead to more dead children, that’s for sure.

      • infused 12.1.1

        source.

        • McFlock 12.1.1.1

          Anything by Charles Dickens. /sarc but not far off

        • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1.1.2

          Sources:

          The OECD (GINI), the World Bank (GINI), The Lancet (infectious diseases Baker et al etc.), Treasury (GINI), the IPCC, MI5 (right wing values recruit terrorists), the Pentagon (Climate report), Margaret Thatcher (consequences of the greenhouse effect).

          All of those are off the top of my head, and that’s before we start to explore the ways powerful pony perverts increase youth suicide statistics.

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