Open mike 04/11/2024

61 comments on “Open mike 04/11/2024 ”

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1. Ad 1

   4 November 2024 at 7:20 am

   I remember going down to the Auckland Democrat party for the Biden win, preparing for exultation.

   It was so close it became terrifying.

   Harris had such a post-Convention surge, and I was preparing for hope.

   Now I just want to pull the covers over my head.
   • Anne 1.1

     4 November 2024 at 10:19 am

     The dumbing down of American society began many decades ago. Now it is paying dividends. Too many of them will believe the moon is made of cheese if the fascist Trump or one of his acolytes told them so. It's tragic but what can anyone do.
     • Ad 1.1.1

       4 November 2024 at 10:38 am

       We're not particularly smart here either.
   • thinker 1.2

     4 November 2024 at 5:31 pm

     I suppose if you want to find a silver lining in the dark cloud, I think Luxon was gambling on our economy turning the corner in 2026.

     If I were Luxon and Trump got in, I'd be reaching for my brown trousers…
2. gsays 2

   4 November 2024 at 8:30 am

   Listening to RNZ's coverage of the US election, tariffs seem to be an issue.

   Trump is touting them and Harris may introduce some for political reasons.

   Who benefits from the no tariffs situation we are in now?

   It occurs to me the citizenry don't benefit, the price we pay for milk and cheeses would be an example as would timber/building products.

   $100 a metre for a laminated 120 x 120nn post bears that out as does the MASSIVE decline in the quality of the timber on sale (knots).
   • Res Publica 2.1

     4 November 2024 at 9:17 am

     The traditional reason for having tariffs is protecting your local industries from being outcompeted by cheaper (or better) foreign imports. So, it's in effect a tax on consumers that subsidizes domestic businesses.

     Removing them has kind of like an international game of chicken: I might want have tarriff free exports to your country, but in return, I'll need to remove my tarriffs on yours to make it worth your while.

     Trump's made them popular again because they're seen as being supportive of American manufacturing and "punishing" China. But unfortunately, his dumb hick supporters are a) unaware just how distributed global manufacturing is and how reliant how much of their supply chain is on foreign goods and b) too economically and mathematically illiterate to realise how steeply it'll increase the cost of living.
     • Ad 2.1.1

       4 November 2024 at 9:25 am

       Canada is showing NZ through the WTO that it doesn't give a damn about trade rules and will protect its dairy farmers no matter what.

       It's the small and weak like us that need rules.

       MBIE and MPI need to start gaming out which of our industries are most vulnerable to tariff increases.

       Harris and Trump are closely aligned on trade protection, just like Biden and Trump.
       • Bearded Git 2.1.1.1

         4 November 2024 at 10:13 am

         Not so closely aligned:

         "Harris has criticised Trump’s sweeping plan to impose tariffs on imports, calling it a national tax on working families which will cost each household $4,000 a year.

         She is expected to have a more targeted approach to taxing imports, maintaining the tariffs the Biden-Harris administration introduced on some Chinese imports like electric vehicles.

         Trump has made tariffs a central campaign pledge in order to protect US industry. He has proposed new 10-20% tariffs on most imported foreign goods, and much higher ones on those from China.

         He has also promised to entice companies to stay in the US to manufacture goods, by giving them a lower rate of corporate tax."

         https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy343z53l1o
         • Ad 2.1.1.1.1

           4 November 2024 at 10:36 am

           Biden in May directed tariff increases against China in this year alone on $18billion of imports.

           This just builds on the Biden-Harris moves against China in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Reduction Act.

           Both are just trying to outbid each other.
           • Bearded Git 2.1.1.1.1.1

             4 November 2024 at 3:43 pm

             …..And Trump has well outbid Harris with his "new 10-20% tariffs on most imported foreign goods" that according to Harris will cost people $4k a year.

             There is no equivalence. Tariffs are central to Trump's campaign. Trump is much worse than Harris on trade.

             The dumb Biden tariffs on EV's are luddite and only serve to protect the dinosaur auto-industry in the US. But Trump will double-down on these.
             • satty …

               4 November 2024 at 3:55 pm

               Yep. Elon Musk is obviously very keen to have the US EV market protected. Therefore the Trump super-support by him.

               BYD has overtaken Tesla now (revenue) and there will be a lot more EVs flooding the market going forward.
       • Res Publica 2.1.1.2

         4 November 2024 at 11:29 am

         MBIE and MPI need to start gaming out which of our industries are most vulnerable to tariff increases.

         Basically all of them. Our entire foreign and economic policy framework is predicated on the basis of a rules-based international order that promotes and free trade and protects New Zealand's sovereignty.

         On that basis we have about as much change of winning a trade war as we do winning a shooting one.
         • Ad 2.1.1.2.1

           4 November 2024 at 1:22 pm

           Our dairy, tourism, film+gaming, wine, and tech industries are all internationally competitive and have near-zero subsidies.

           It's our remaining niche manufacturing industries that would be the most vulnerable.
           • KJT 2.1.1.2.1.1

             4 November 2024 at 5:50 pm

             4 November 2024 at 1:22 pm

             Our dairy, tourism, film+gaming, wine, and tech industries are all internationally competitive and have near-zero subsidies.

             Is this an intentional, joke?
     • Jenny 2.1.2

       4 November 2024 at 10:32 am

       THE NBR PODCAST [paywalled]

       Podcast #25: US Election – should NZ be terrified of tariffs?

       Listen: America is on the cusp of choosing its next President. If that's Donald Trump then it could mean massive tariffs. We talk to American and local experts about what that could mean for New Zealand and the world.

       Simon Shepherd

       Thu, 31 Oct 2024

       https://www.nbr.co.nz/the-nbr-podcast/the-nbr-podcast-us-elections-tariffs-25/

       The answer to Simon Shepard's question, is – Yes The whole world should be terrified of tariffs

       The ladder of escalation

       Economic Crisis > Mass Unemployment > Protectionism > Tariffs > Trade Wars > Shooting Wars > Imperialism > Fascism > Genocide

       (Not always in that order)

       KJT @3

       2 November 2024 at 8:43 am

       …..Mainstream economics is in "disarray."

       It ignores the reality of power, it neglects questions of equity, and its policy recommendations can be "little more than a license for plunder."….

       ….But will his colleagues listen to him?

       The answer to KJT's question is – Probably Not.

       My question is – will economic trade wars become shooting wars?

       What could a megalomaniac like Trump in his second term do as President, that he failed to do in his first?

       What will China do with its massive army of unemployed?

       (Probably the same thing Germany did with them)

       '

       Oct 26th, 2024

       “To me, the most beautiful word – and I’ve said this for the last couple of weeks – in the dictionary today and any is the word tariff,” said Trump. “It’s more beautiful than love, it’s more beautiful than anything. It’s the most beautiful word.” Donald Trump

       9 Apr 2018

       Trade Wars Lead to Shooting Wars and Depressions

       Trade wars were a principal factor in causing the Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II.

       https://fee.org › articles › trade-wars-lead-to-shooting-w…

       — Trade wars cause depression. Trade wars cause shooting wars. French economist Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850) is often quoted as saying…..

       The current President of the U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum effective March 23, 2018 and proposes tariffs on products imported from China. He has also proposed revoking U.S. participation in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which has enabled a large expansion of trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico…..

       Trade Wars Hurt Everyone

       Ruling Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has vowed that finding jobs for young people is a top priority for his government,…..

       …..Yet in July, as millions of fresh graduates poured into the labor market, unemployment rates reached 17.1% among 16-24 year-olds, according to the latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ticking up again after a three-month decline.

       …Amid the harsh economic climate, China's young people have coined the terms " political depression" and " lying flat" to refer to their sense of hopelessness,

       https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/young-graduates-rotten-tail-kids-08262024134727.html

       Mehdi Hasan in his debate 'Is Trump a Fascist', says, 'in the comments some guy asked if I knew anyone he could marry in the UK, (presumably to gain UK citizenship).

       Friends of mine in the US are telling me that they are considering moving to NZ

       We don't know how lucky we are:
       • Ad 2.1.2.1

         4 November 2024 at 10:41 am

         They talk about moving to NZ for politics, but no one ever does.

         Maybe NZ protection of its key manufacturering isn't dumb. Our exports are weak enough already.
       • Res Publica 2.1.2.2

         4 November 2024 at 11:35 am

         Economic Crisis > Mass Unemployment > Protectionism > Tariffs > Trade Wars > Shooting Wars > Imperialism > Fascism > Genocide

         I'd be leery of anyone arguing that there's an inevitable chain of events that starts off with tariffs and ends with genocide. But the historical evidence certainly suggests that times of economic crisis massively increase the risk of Bad Things (TM) happening.

         …..Mainstream economics is in "disarray."

         Depends on who's "mainstream" you're talking about. Neoliberism? For sure. It's promised a whole lot over the last 40-odd years and delivered nothing. Keynesian economics? Still orthodox and still working out just fine.
       • alwyn 2.1.2.3

         4 November 2024 at 12:04 pm

         I'm not sure that Fred Dagg, John Clarke in real life, is someone we should be copying. He moved from New Zealand to Australia in 1977 before he was 30 and never came back.

         When he talked about being lucky he seems to have had the "Lucky Country" of Donald Horne in mind.
         • Ad 2.1.2.3.1

           4 November 2024 at 1:30 pm

           Right now we are in the fastest net migration to Australia that we've ever had.

           Might have something to do with Ardern negotiating with Australia for about 380,000 New Zealanders getting the right to apply for Australian citizenship without becoming permanent residents first.
           • alwyn 2.1.2.3.1.1

             4 November 2024 at 2:50 pm

             When I moved to Australia in 1989 you were automatically given Permanent Residence when you arrived. That was the only category they had for people arriving with a NZ Passport.

             I don't remember how long you had to live there before you could get Citizenship. It wasn't very long though.

             I am amazed at the number of people I know in Australia who were born here but have lived in Australia for many years (more than 40 in some cases) and are never coming back to live here but have never bothered to take out Australian Citizenship.
             • Macro …

               4 November 2024 at 4:46 pm

               I am amazed at the number of people I know in Australia who were born here but have lived in Australia for many years (more than 40 in some cases) and are never coming back to live here but have never bothered to take out Australian Citizenship.

               Up until JA negotiated the fast track citizenship deal with Aussie the cost of getting Australian citizenship was horrendous. My family forked out well over 10 thousand for their citizenship just before the fast track deal. (My G'daughter is off to Uni and wants to join the RAN). And if there was even a small error in the application – like a date a day out or the flight number incorrect you had to reapply and the pay full cost again.
               • alwyn …

                 4 November 2024 at 5:52 pm

                 The people I am talking about were living in Australia prior to February 2001 when the Australian Government changed the rules. Prior to that date, and it was still the case if you were living in Australia on 22/02/2001 it was easy, and quite cheap to become a citizen.

                 I can only assume that your family moved to Australia after February 2021. For people in that situation it did get very hard. For those who were there in Feb 2021 it remained easy, and those are the group I was talking about.
                 • alwyn …

                   4 November 2024 at 6:09 pm

                   Sorry. In the second paragraph the two references to 2021 should have been 2001.
                 • Macro …

                   4 November 2024 at 7:55 pm

                   They have been in Australia for 14 years.
                   • alwyn …

                     4 November 2024 at 8:31 pm

                     They have my sympathy. When the Australian Government brought in the 2001 changes the new scheme allowed New Zealand citizens to go to Oz and work there without problems. However they provided no path at all to citizenship and cut off all the benefits for children. That was not pointed out by our then Government (in NZ) at the time and it wasn't widely known. Instead our PM said that nothing had changed. That was the one thing I never forgave Helen Clark for, her concealing this. It wasn't her fault it happened but she should have explained what it really meant. Did your family understand how hard it would be when they left NZ?

                     I could have taken citizenship when I was there with no trouble and, IIRC a couple of hundred dollars. It was completely routine during the period up to 2001.
           • Jenny 2.1.2.3.1.2

             5 November 2024 at 8:28 am

             Ad @2.1.2.3.1

             4 November 2024 at 1:30 pm

             Right now we are in the fastest net migration to Australia that we've ever had…..

             The outflow will quickly reverse when the dispute between the Western powers and China breaks out into open armed conflict and Australia becomes a target for Chinese missiles.

             There is a lot to be said about a peaceful little country at the bottom of the world with an independent foreign policy.

             Not only will the outward flow of New Zealand citizens reverse, they will be joined by the best and brightest of Australians.

             Russia's best and brightest are leaving the country in record numbers

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
             • Ad …

               5 November 2024 at 8:50 am

               If there's war between the United States and China, immigration won't be the highest of our concerns.
       • Obtrectator 2.1.2.4

         4 November 2024 at 3:51 pm

         "What will China do with its massive army of unemployed?"

         I've been asking a similar question for years with respect to all the surplus men resulting from the one-child policy and female feticide.
     • gsays 2.1.3

       4 November 2024 at 10:35 am

       "unaware just how distributed global manufacturing is and how reliant how much of their supply chain is on foreign goods"

       That would be all the appliances that can't be repaired-toasters, jugs etc. Or the larger items like fridges, freezers, driers that don't last like they did when Aotearoa had manufacturing capability.

       Once again, not serving the public at all well. Another way of undermining our resilience as a nation.
       • Res Publica 2.1.3.1

         4 November 2024 at 11:26 am

         Once again, not serving the public at all well. Another way of undermining our resilience as a nation.

         You could just as easily argue that in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, it's better for the public to pay $3000 for a fridge that's made in China and designed by a Korean company, than $6000 for an equivalent fridge that's manufactured here.

         As a taxpayer and consumer, I'd be happy with the government helping build capability in our manufacturing sector, but only if there was some public good generated by it.

         Because at the moment, businesses are the first to put their hand out for taxpayer cash, but still want to be able to exploit their staff. Or avoid covering the environmental costs of their activities. Or even just pay their fair share of tax.

         I'm not a big fan of privatizing the benefits of government activites but publicizing the negative externalities.
         • gsays 2.1.3.1.1

           4 November 2024 at 12:20 pm

           Buying that 'more expensive ' locally made fridge is a tad of a false economy.

           If, by some miracle we started local manufacturing, there would be a need for more businesses sprouting up to supply the componentry needed for the fridge.

           More better paid jobs therefore more dollars in your pocket to buy said fridge.
         • gsays 2.1.3.1.2

           4 November 2024 at 12:34 pm

           I also ask again, who these tariffs benefit?

           Classically it is primary producers but the fisheries are foreign companies and crews, a lot of the forestry is foreign owned and even fruit growers employ foreigners and sell to foreigners, where is the benefit to the citizens?

           Not asking you directly just broadening my original question.
           • Res Publica 2.1.3.1.2.1

             4 November 2024 at 10:43 pm

             I also ask again, who these tariffs benefit?

             Like I said, manufacturers. It's basically a subsidy paid for by consumers, who either have to accept the tariff added price for (more expensive) foreign goods or pay the premium for stuff that's manufactured domestically.

             The argument for doing so, as you outlined before, is that it stimulates the economy and creates jobs.
       • joe90 2.1.3.2

         4 November 2024 at 2:02 pm

         Aotearoa had manufacturing capability.

         The 1974 Commonwealth games were a BFD so mum bought the biggest, flashest, colour TV she could find.

         It was was manufactured in Aotearoa and I don't think it ever needed fixing.

         As a final year apprentice I was earning a little less than minimum wage.

         

         
         • joe90 2.1.3.2.1

           4 November 2024 at 2:17 pm

           Mum’s telly was a Phillips K9.

           

           https://collections.tepapa.govt.nz/object/707725
           • gsays 2.1.3.2.1.1

             4 November 2024 at 2:43 pm

             What a flashback!

             We had one if them but on a swivel base.

             29 inch, it was a monster. You still had to get up to put it on the other channel.
3. Bearded Git 3

   4 November 2024 at 10:40 am

   76 million votes cast already.

   53% Women 44% Men 3% Other

   This gives hope for Harris.

   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
4. tWig 4

   4 November 2024 at 10:45 am

   Looks like I will be using my birthday book token towards this new history of NZ identity, by Michael Belgrave, interviewed on RNZ Saturday. Seems a very timely analysis of NZ's colonising past, and the Maori response since then, in particular. I remember the huge impact James Belich's history Making Peoples had on me when I first read it.

   This is the sort of stuff you need to read going in to the Treaty debate. So much falls through the cracks in the top-level rhetoric thrown about. Potted-history only goes so far, as we have seen in debate in The Standard. An overview which takes in account our changing ideas in the the last decade will help shape constructive, informed debate.
   • Ad 4.1

     4 November 2024 at 11:30 am

     I'll have to read it over summer, but a theory of NZ identity without the massive ideological and funding force of the NZ state (including all its media and arts institution ideology and funding) through the 20th century – rather than a set of "social contracts" – would seem pretty weird.
   • Tiger Mountain 4.2

     4 November 2024 at 11:52 am

     “Making Peoples” is a life changing different perspective for some people. The rarest book of all is one that you loan and is returned…and so far Jamie Belich’s tome has always come back. But I recommend Library editions etc. also of course.
   • Incognito 4.3

     4 November 2024 at 2:16 pm

     Belgrave’s latest book was also ‘reviewed’ recently by Rob Campbell: https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/10/30/are-we-becoming-aotearoa-or-just-getting-back-on-a-colonial-track/
   • tWig 4.4

     4 November 2024 at 4:55 pm

     Just skimmed thru it at the bookshop: a drier read than Belich, with a few pages each on a particular topic. But looks comprehensive. Now to ferret the token out.
5. Koina 5

   4 November 2024 at 11:18 am

   How many in depth History books of New Zealand have been written by women and more specifically women who had three children by the time they were 23 years old?
   • tWig 5.1

     4 November 2024 at 4:58 pm

     Claudia Orange?
6. bwaghorn 6

   4 November 2024 at 12:03 pm

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360473666/ex-us-ambassador-slams-sir-john-keys-trump-endorsement-says-harris-will-sweep

   key getting a public smacking for exposing his money only world veiw.
   • tc 6.1

     4 November 2024 at 12:41 pm

     Wouldn't be an issue if the media didnt publish his opinions which surprised nobody as Shonky is all about the money.
   • adam 6.2

     4 November 2024 at 2:10 pm

     Donkey the puller was bad for this country. His comments and opinions about trump, sum up how willing he is to be playing the skin flute for corporate interest.
     • tWig 6.2.1

       4 November 2024 at 5:00 pm

       "I'm mates with REALLY rich people"
       • adam 6.2.1.1

         4 November 2024 at 6:56 pm

         and all the other Mammonite brothers and sisters.
7. tsmithfield 7

   4 November 2024 at 12:07 pm

   Well done to the Black Caps. Incredible result.

   India were hoisted by their own petard by putting out turning tracks for the last two games which turned it into a lottery. And, we got the right side of the tosses (for a change) which was crucial.

   I heard Simon Doull making the point that India has traditionally done well by putting out flat pitches, and their superior spinners were able to make much better use of those than the opposition ones. However, the nature of these pitches was such that any spinner was going to do well, as turned out to be the case.

   However, that doesn't take away from our incredible result given the conditions including the heat which was in the mid thirties and feeling like around 40 degrees due to the humidity.
   • gsays 7.1

     4 November 2024 at 12:28 pm

     After sleeping on the result, I've come to the conclusion that India didn't even come second.

     Bowling them out for 46 and then out batting a much vaunted Indian batting lineup. Apart from a few blunders we outfielded India.

     Our bowlers really stepped up to the challenge, Santner being a wonderful revelation in the second test.

     In short, a fine all-round team effort, where every player stepped up and outplayed the opposition.

     Bring on the poms!
   • gsays 7.2

     4 November 2024 at 12:36 pm

     Conway must be sweating on his position with the rise of Young and Williamson returning to the team.
     • higherstandard 7.2.1

       4 November 2024 at 1:00 pm

       Neither Young nor Williamson are openers, Conway is settled and safe as NZ opener.

       He also has a higher average and strike rate than Latham who is also under no threat of replacement.
       • tsmithfield 7.2.1.1

         4 November 2024 at 1:39 pm

         I agree. Conway had a few good scores in the series in India. Probably no need to change him right now. Though, he does have a few technical deficiencies that I think opposition sides are looking to exploit these days.
   • Bearded Git 7.3

     4 November 2024 at 5:57 pm

     tsmith…yes I forgot about the tosses….we were very lucky there.

     (p.s your "for a change" is pure Trumpism. You must realise that the toss of a coin is entirely random.)

     (p.p.s Glad I have my Hagley Oval tickets)
8. joe90 8

   4 November 2024 at 4:07 pm

   Women will save the world.

   .

   Maia Sandu

   @sandumaiamd

   Moldova, today you are victorious. Together, we’ve shown the strength of our unity, democracy, and commitment to a dignified future. Thank you, dear Moldovans, at home and abroad. Walk with pride—you are freedom, hope, and resilience. I am proud to serve you all.

   https://x.com/sandumaiamd/status/1853209669390516499

   The pro-western incumbent Maia Sandu has won a second term in office in the Moldovan presidential election, preliminary results have shown, marking a significant boost for the country’s EU aspirations and a clear rebuke to Moscow.

   The runoff election was seen as a crucial indicator of whether the country’s long-term geopolitical alignment will be with Russia or Europe.

   The pro-western incumbent, Sandu, who has intensified the nation’s efforts to break away from Moscow’s influence, was facing the Kremlin-friendly political newcomer, Alexandr Stoianoglo, from the Socialist party, in the second round of voting on Sunday.

   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/03/moldovans-vote-in-presidential-runoff-amid-claims-of-russian-interference
   • mikesh 8.1

     4 November 2024 at 6:07 pm

     he runoff election was seen as a crucial indicator of whether the country’s long-term geopolitical alignment will be with Russia or Europe.

     It should be with both. Russia and Europe should be aligned. Only Russia seems to have realised this. What is it with the Europeans: are they stupid, or just paranoid.
     • joe90 8.1.1

       4 November 2024 at 7:43 pm

       Only Russia seems to have realised this. What is it with the Europeans: are they stupid, or just paranoid.

       Tankiesplaining Poots' imperialist Russia to people 🇲🇩 who endured more than a century of first Tsarist, and then Soviet Russia's thuggery….lol..

       /
   • adam 8.2

     4 November 2024 at 6:59 pm

     Republican women have come to the party it seems.
     • joe90 8.2.1

       4 November 2024 at 8:41 pm

       Reproductive rights are a nonpartisan issue.

       .

       The latest poll from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom delivered a gut punch to those inside Donald Trump’s orbit Saturday night, several people familiar with the reaction told CNN. The former president has been fuming privately over the numbers, arguing the highly anticipated poll should never have been released.

       Trump’s advisers have sought to assure him the survey is not accurate, blasting it as way off and telling him there’s always one poll that stands out. His long-standing pollster issued a memo Saturday night arguing it was a “clear outlier.” But the gender breakdown showing women are driving a shift toward Vice President Kamala Harris has privately concerned Trump’s allies, with a focus on the poll’s finding that Iowa women favor Harris over him, 56% to 36%.

       https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-election-11-03-24/index.html
9. Jenny 9

   6 November 2024 at 10:06 pm

   "We will make our country heel" Donald Trump acceptance speech

   (Did I spell that right?)

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