Open mike 05/01/2025

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, January 5th, 2025 - 29 comments
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29 comments on “Open mike 05/01/2025 ”

  1. Tony Veitch 1
    5 January 2025 at 7:56 am

    It's hard to escape the conclusion that Trump intends to crash the US economy (and, as the saying goes, when the US sneezes, the world catches cold) and the world economy, for selfish reasons of his and his billionaire backers!

    His pick for head of the IRS seems to back up this conclusion! 19 mins long.

    What we (us bottom feeders) should be doing is talking about ways we can somehow weather the coming storm!

    Reply
    • alwyn 1.1
      5 January 2025 at 2:18 pm

      "Trump intends to crash the US economy".

      Why on earth do you think that this is Trump's intention and how do you expect him to gain by doing so?

      There was no evidence from his first term of any such intention and certainly no evidence of it happening. After all, until the advent of Covid 19 which hit in the second quarter of 2020, the US economy was going along very nicely. The unemployment rate, which had been declining steadily since 2010, continued to drop from about 4.7% in January 2016 to about 3.6% in January 2020. It then rose with the advent of Covid. For three years however it had dropped steadily. If Trump didn't crash the economy in his first term why should he do it now? It is hard to see how he could possibly gain by such a move.

      https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

      The

      Reply
      • Ad 1.1.1
        5 January 2025 at 3:59 pm

        It will be particularly annoying if Trump actually does a good job.

        In just 48 hours we'll start to find out.

        Reply
        • SPC 1.1.1.1
          5 January 2025 at 4:20 pm

          If anyone can do a good job with that selection of nominees to Cabinet …

          It's basically a rejection of the need for a CV to demonstrate suitability for the job.

          48 hours?

          Tue, 21 Jan 2025, 6:00 am
          New Zealand Time

          Reply
        • Binders full of women 1.1.1.2
          5 January 2025 at 5:01 pm

          No it won't. For the sake of all Americans (poor, rich, old, young, workers, artists) I hope he does a great job. And peace doe Ukraine.

          Reply
        • alwyn 1.1.1.3
          5 January 2025 at 5:26 pm

          What happens in 48 hours? He doesn't become President until 20th January.

          I'm not greatly concerned by whatever might happen to the economy. That said I expect that Trump will be in it to make sure that he gets to be very, very rich. Why should Musk be so much richer than Trump? That is a problem for the people of the US though, even if it won't change things for most of them. After all, even if Trump ends up with a couple of hundred billion It isn't really that much in an economy as large as that of the US.

          What scares me about him is that he might pull out of NATO, or the WHO or OPEC. I really don't want to think about what Putin might do in the Eastern states of NATO or in Ukraine if Trump decides that Putin can do anything he likes as far as the US is concerned.

          Reply
      • Tony Veitch 1.1.2
        6 January 2025 at 5:25 am

        Billionaires and multi-millionaires with ready cash do very well out of a crash! John Paul Getty spent the 30th October 1929 buying stock on Wall Street!

        Trump only cares about himself and his billionaire backers!

        But . . . time will tell!

        Reply
        • alwyn 1.1.2.1
          6 January 2025 at 9:32 am

          He wouldn't have been a very happy man if that was the case and he hung on to the shares you suggest he bought,

          The Dow-Jones average in November 1929 was 238.95. It bottomed out in June 1932 when it was at 42.84. If he had bought shares that matched the index he would have lost 82% of his money.

          That is, the shares he spent a dollar on on 30 October 1929 would have dropped to 18 cents in June 1932. Would you say that was doing very well out of a crash?

          Reply
          • Tony Veitch 1.1.2.1.1
            6 January 2025 at 10:01 am

            Ah, a literal mind!

            Getty bought up big in oil and transport stocks during the 1929 crash – maybe just not the day after!

            The point remains – even if you refuse to see it – cashed up people do well in a crash!

            Reply
  2. Jenny 2
    5 January 2025 at 8:29 am

    The 'Trump Train'?

    Seems to me, more like a Clown Car

    Reply
  3. Visubversa 3
    5 January 2025 at 9:34 am

    How to despoil the environment and get away with it.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360518645/fines-environmental-offending-never-get-paid

    "Some $24 million in fines for environmental offences have been dished out over the past 10 years, but an unknown chunk of that will never be paid because court staff have decided to remit it.

    The fines were imposed for a variety of relatively minor to major environmental offending, following 566 prosecutions by 16 regional councils or territorial authorities under the Resource Management Act."

    When I worked with Environmental Law I had access to the regular digest of Environment Court decisions and I was amazed at the frequency of prosecutions of farming companies for repeated breaches of the regulations relating to pollution of land and water. Prosecution was the last resort – not the first, and these offences were repeated several times.

    Like wage theft – the Limited Liability Company legislation allows exploiters and polluters the ability to get away with criminality – and others (in these cases the Ratepayers) meet the costs.

    Reply
  4. SPC 4
    5 January 2025 at 10:30 am

    The ICC has issued warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant – for crimes against humanity and war crimes (there has been no determination of genocide).

    On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced it had issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav Gallant, the former defense minister, in connection with alleged crimes committed in the ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Hamas.

    In doing so, the Court rejected as premature Israel’s challenge to the Court’s jurisdiction.

    The Court’s decision to issue a warrant for the sitting Prime Minister of a state, which is notably not a party to the Rome Statute, also demonstrates the Court’s embrace of its prior controversial decision on immunity, namely that customary international law does not provide immunity for heads of state from criminal prosecution in international criminal courts, or at least not before the International Criminal Court.

    This position could be a source of tension for those states that support a customary international law rule providing head of state immunity before international tribunals, but are also bound by treaty to comply with the Court’s warrants and requests for arrest.

    The position of nation states on this matter.

    we have used the following categories of statement:

    1. Political support and support for compliance
    2. Compliance alone
    3. Political support alone
    4. Non-committal
    5. Critique on policy grounds
    6. Critique on only legal grounds and/or suggest non-compliance
    7. Critique on both policy and legal grounds and/or suggest non-compliance

    New Zealand is seen as compliance alone. Australia as non- committal.

    https://www.justsecurity.org/105064/mapping-state-reactions-icc/

    Reply
  5. Stephen D 5
    5 January 2025 at 11:38 am

    A question for the sailors. Would the ferries the previous government had on order, cope with the current Cook Strait weather?

    Reply
  6. David 6
    5 January 2025 at 12:52 pm

    Short answer, yes, just like the current all previous Cook Strait ferries.

    Ferry sailings that are cancelled due to the weather will be mainly due to comfort and safety of the passengers. The most hazardous part of the journey is the entrance to Tory channel, which can be bypassed by Queen Charlotte sound should the weather conditions be too bad. Unless you really are a seasoned sailor, the Cook Strait is very unpleasant in the weather we have in Wellington today.

    Reply
    • Stephen D 6.1
      5 January 2025 at 4:04 pm

      Were the new ferries not to be larger and more stable. Thus capable of coping with bigger seas?

      Reply
      • David 6.1.1
        5 January 2025 at 5:04 pm

        Okay I do understand where you’re coming from. Yes a much larger ship with the latest stabilisation technology will be more comfortable for passengers than the current ships, but only when sailing into the sea. Sailing from Wellington harbour to Tory channel, ships are beam on to the sea. Depending on wind direction, speed, tides and differing weather systems in the Pacific Ocean and Tasman sea, the passage across the Cook Strait is pretty tricky due to the very rough and unpredictable swells. Ships can handle the conditions, up to a point, but the comfort and safety passengers will be a priority.

        Reply
        • aj 6.1.1.1
          5 January 2025 at 5:34 pm

          Ships are like planes. Larger planes can handle poor weather better. Eg in crosswind landings the threshold of wind speed is higher for large planes than smaller.

          Reply
        • Stephen D 6.1.1.2
          5 January 2025 at 6:06 pm

          Thanks for that.

          So, short of ocean going craft, there will always be issues.

          Reply
          • David 6.1.1.2.1
            5 January 2025 at 9:14 pm

            Not quite, irrespective of how large or modern the ship is sailing beam on to the sea is uncomfortable at best. Ocean going ships will change their course to sail into the sea. This is not an option when crossing cook strait.

            The other issue with cook strait is the unpredictable undersea currents, along with tides and winds. The weather conditions today makes for unpredictable seas, usually in rough seas you get a feel for the conditions and can see changes in the waves and can spot the larger wave, and sailing into the sea it’s not really a problem. In the cook strait you are sailing beam on to the sea, and can get hit by unexpected waves, if the conditions are bad enough ships can get swamped by the waves.

            The next problem is the entrance to Tory channel, it’s very narrow and does require fairly precise navigation. Considering today’s weather, I’d happily take landing at Wellington airport, before taking a ferry crossing.

            Reply
            • aj 6.1.1.2.1.1
              5 January 2025 at 10:29 pm

              The near run-up to the Tory channel is not such a problem, in my experience crying

              Much less affected by southerly swells than Wellington Harbour entrance by a long shot.

              If a wider beam ferry lifts the tolerable average swell height with a beam-on sea running by only a metre, that's going to reduce the number of cancellations a lot.

              Meantime – check out what Willis and the CoC has deprived us of . . . .

              KiwiRail's new Interislander ferry explained. 21 Jun, 2023 05:00 AM

              An in depth look at KiwiRail's new Inter-islander ferry. Video / iRex

              https://www.nzherald.co.nz/video/kiwirails-new-interislander-ferry-explained/FJPTEV5KNIOUAK3W6CWQXCJTP4/

              Reply

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