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6:00 am, December 8th, 2024 - 75 comments
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It appears that the government of Syria is being formally removed from office this week.
The Russians and Iranians are leaving, the prison where POW were "killed" will be "liberated", and the suburbs of Damascus began falling as soon as the regimes military left to form a "cordon around the capital" (possibly to enable a runner).
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t
Hopefully this might facilitate Gulf states assisting with a rebuild and a return of some of the refugees. And that might have a positive impact on Lebanon and its future.
It will get far worse should that regime really fall. Worse than Iraq.
Al Jazeera reports the Assad family have fled Syria.
Retribution and anomie follow in sticky red.
Presumably the military take over. Turkey must now be sorely tempted to take Aleppo and carve Syria's North off.
Mass internal migration and its economic destruction ensue.
Worst Middle East Christmas in a century.
… and this gives a sense of who the successful warring factions in Syria are aligned to:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/opposition-fighters-damascus-gates-now-116562473
Barbara Plett Usher
reporting from Damascus
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t
Little of that has occurred with the advance so far. And given Damascus suburbs are falling and the army has developed a cordon outside it – not that likely there either.
The ME had it easier in WW1, the carnage in Iraq and Syria (failed state) and Libya (failed state) has been next level.
The Arab League (Egypt) and Turkey need to step up – given Turkey has agendas, this is best done by UNSC mandate.
1.UN administration
2.UN development to establish the path to governance (by election) and a fund for a rebuild.
It has been worse than Iraq for a long time already.
So many refugees, a lot more damage to infrastructure.
In Gaza, the genocide grinds relentlessly on. More than 1400 families have now been completely erased from the Civil registry with over 3700 families now having only one survivor. Gaza has more child amputees than any other place on Earth.
In the North, ethnic cleansing in preparation of Israeli settlement is in it's ninth week. Food and medical aid are non existent with famine and disease rampant. In the last 60 days in the North nearly 4000 Palestinians are dead or missing with another 10 000 missing.
At Kamal Adwan Hospital, the director of the ICU was killed as he entered the front door of the hospital. The director of the hospital, Abu Safiya, who has himself been badly wounded and lost his son while he helped his father at the hospital, was once again leading prayers for a dead colleague that had been deliberately targeted by the IDF.
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen are the few countries that have had the courage to stand in the way of this outrageous western supported and encouraged, genocide. Unsurprisingly and so coincidentally after the Lebonese ceasefire, the dirty war in Syria has been reignited as a means to finally cut the support lines to Lebanon and Palestine.
Your characterisation of the rebranded AL Quaeda affiliates, otherwise known as headchoppers as some kind of liberation force for Syria is perverse in the extreme.
It is notable that, as Jon Elmer and Ali Abunimah of the Electronic Intifada explain, Israel played video of Hayat Tahrir al Sham fighters almost immediately after the fighting began. This although Israel bans any depiction of enemy fighters and their abilities shown on Israeli media. The inference being that THS are not enemies. Israel has given significant aid to the headchoppers in the past and is engaged in outrageous atrocities in Gaza so no surprise there.
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/nora-barrows-friedman/israel-attacks-north-gaza-hospital-fifth-time
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7EUps7wU4j4&t=1s&pp=2AEBkAIB
You should provide a link to identify the significant aid to THS from Israel.
No I wrote this
The Turks seem to want the return of refugees to Syria. It is obvious Gulf states are more likely to provide aid (Syria and Lebanon) with the removal of Iranian presence, than with it still there.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxdd2r2191o
I did. Its in the video. Israel has never denied non lethal aid nor surgery for the many flavors of al Quaeda fighters. The current crop are already pledging allegiance to Israel in the form of normalization when they take control of the Syrian state.
From the above video, at about 6 13, AP reports that Syria was offered sanctions relief in exchange for turning its back on Lebanon, Palestine and Iran. They refused but I guess the message is that the Syrian govt is only a pariah so long as it opposes Washington.
At around 8 13 Times of Israel reports from US backed Syrian fighters on the benefits of Israeli attacks on Iranian and Syrian fighters involved with actual opposition to al Quaeda. This is where the Israeli airforce got the monika of al Quaeda's airforce.
This includes expressions of gratitude to Israel.
From 10 10 Timber Sycamore and the CIA financed by Saudi pouring cash and weapons into Syria.
Also,
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/06/in-secret-program-israel-armed-and-funded-rebel-groups-in-southern-syria/
And on supply of actual hardware.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-acknowledges-long-claimed-weapons-supply-to-syrian-rebels/
Not disagreeing, but it's possible that not all islamic fundamentalists are head-choppers. The warlord seems more intent on regime-building: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/4/who-is-abu-mohamad-al-julani-the-leader-of-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-in-syria
Not credible unless he renounces barbaric violence too, of course! However realpolitik allows incremental improvement so western labelling ought to be flexible.
Oh right. A one time leader of Al Quaeda in Syria to be ethically cleansed as a freedom fighter without ever having to face any kind of judiciary for his crimes??!
This is just typical of US imperialism. Rebrand and shove down the memory hole. I mean, 2011, who can even remember that far back any more. Maybe Fukuyama was right and we really have reached the end of history?? Nothing in the past has any meaning anymore so long as you're on board with the rules based order?? Just make Te Tiriti mean whatever because it's so far in the past!!
On TDB yesterday Bomber posed an extremely difficult question: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2024/12/07/how-is-it-misinformation-if-the-teen-died-during-transition-to-the-community-phase-of-the-boot-camp-programme-blood-is-still-on-the-hands-of-the-government/
He's worried about this RNZ story: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535892/greens-accused-of-spreading-misinformation-over-teen-s-bootcamp-death
Here's how Jo Moir, RNZ Political Editor, framed the issue:
Now whether it is information or not depends on what the Green MP wrote on social media and Jo helpfully includes a screenshot of that in her account:
Jo also told us the teen died in a crash in Tirau; but not that the boot camp is in Tirau. So the truth of the Green MP's claim hinges on whether it is or not.
It's a schrodinger's cat situation: she's not actually lying about his death until the news media observe the location of the boot camp and report it to us. So we're all in limbo with Bomber wondering if her claim is misinformation. The truth is out there – we just need someone to go find it. Jo Moir wrote "the Green Party is standing by the social media post". Are they really that stupid? Chloe needs another lying Green MP like a hole in the head. I bet she's hoping the crash did really happen in the boot camp in Tirau.
[I don’t think it’s ironic that you’re pivoting articles abut spreading misinformation to spread misinformation yourself.
The Green MP [Tamatha Paul] never wrote that; she shared another social media post on Instagram.
I bet you do. Your bias against the Green Party and its MPs is on display here again. I could explain how low and stupid your last sentence is, but it’s self-evident. You’ve been warned to lift your game but you’re unwilling to do so, so off to boot camp for you for a week – Incognito]
Mod note
It is ironic that
Miss TrunchbullKaren Chhour accuses others of politicising young offenders when it is her party's policy, in exhuming military style bootcamps, to literally do just that, politicise young offenders for political gain. ACT have very specific set of headline grabbing projects which they use to market themselves with.In light of the two from the bootcamp who absconded at the tangi of the one who died turning straight to car conversion, one question which you didn't consider is, was the deceased driving the car which hit the tourist bus? Was that car a stolen car? Or perhaps the kid was not really being supervised in transition properly as we had been led to believe.
Mark Mitchell's Men have been very quiet on the circumstances of this very political accident. Maybe to protect the coalition government???
I look forward to your response after you have served your ban.
Our debt to GDP went from 31.8% (2019) to 45.77% (2023).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/436529/national-debt-of-new-zealand-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
Public debt to GDP in the USA went from 80% (2019) to 100% (2020) in the USA under Trump. Falling to 96% in 2021.
https://usafacts.org/articles/federal-debts-deficits-and-the-effect-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-both/
AI says
The US federal debt to GDP ratio in 2024 is expected to be around 123%:
This is using total debt to GDP, as shown here.
From 106% debt to GDP in 2019, to 126% in 2020 under Trump.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
Just so you know, what a turnip the libertarian (better off if more of us died) writing in Stuff is, on all matters economics.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360513485/damien-grant-new-zealand-ashamed-about-what-happened-covid-years
Why is comparing NZ debt to GDP levels to that of the USA useful at all?
1.to compare the impact of COVID on debt levels of nations, in response to the column by Grant.
2.to demonstrate that National's claim of a particular problem for them in government, is no different than many other nations post COVID.
The US GDP is US$29 trillion. Its public debt alone is US$33.1 trillion. No one talks realistically about paying it back, or even whether it makes sense as a ratio to anything.
The NZ GDP is about US$260 million. Our public debt is US$175 million or thereabouts. For a small country like us or Denmark or Fiji or similar, that really matters.
The left need to forget trading on the 'success' of getting us through the pandemic, and start describing what an actual successful economy looks like. At the moment all Labour and the Greens are doing is talking about taxes and patching up a few public institutions.
Many including myself don't want National+NZF+Act's extraction economy which is finite and dumb. But I don't see any party charting something different.
Should that be billion? And public debt at 67% of GDP seems on the high side?
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/year-end/financial-statements-2024
Yes and either way the US isn't useful.
The figure of net core crown debt $175B was reported as 42.5% net core crown debt to GDP.
Thanks – Ad's figures didn't add up, both being in “US$”. Yours make sense.
Oh, your distraction is premised on
1.not caring about relativity to other nations
(some nations have higher debt than the USA)
or wanting it limited to only small nations
You mention Denmark, which is undergoing an export boom (40% increase in exports after 2020 – pharmaceuticals …).
AI Overview
OECD
Europe
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=europe
G20
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=g20
Oz, its debt to GDP
20% in 2019, to 25% in 2020, to 36% in 2021. It is now 43.8%.
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp
The path towards that will not be by ceding the debt narrative to people like the columnist, Luxon and Willis.
1.patching up public institutions, maintaining their purpose in a modern democratic society, is a core job.
2.being spooked by debt levels is a methodology of those who want private sector capital dominance in the order of economic society.
3.any functioning government requires a tax base.
The term for this is prerequisite.
What sort of national economy we should have now, soon, or in the future is dependent on the world environment around us. This is less easy to predict than usual (even without the necessary factoring in of GW).
Government debt under Labour/Greens/NZF fell from 21.6% of GDP to 18.6% between 2016 and 2019. Then along came Covid when, encouraged and supported by the Nats, government spending under Labour to keep businesses/the economy from crashing, and also due to the Covid fall in GDP, caused Government debt to GDP to rise to 39.3% of GDP.
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-debt-to-gdp
Silly me, I took the clickbait and read it. Hold your nose and try not to scream, swear etc. if you make the decision to.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360513485/damien-grant-new-zealand-ashamed-about-what-happened-covid-years
Obviously, Damien and co. still haven't grasped the concept of they're still alive to write crap like this.
This research paper might provide an explanation for the thought patterns of Damien and David (US-centric but broadly applicable).
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3424229/
"they're still alive to write crap like this."
Are you suggesting in this comment that the Government actions during the Covid scare kept people alive who might have died id we hadn't had the horrendous shutdowns we endured?
Professor McCullough of the University of Auckland would say that the evidence is that our death rate from Covid was just like the rest of the world. We just delayed it by a little bit.
Have a look at his comment, and the graph that goes with it which suggests that our over the top reaction did nothing to limit the incidence of Covid deaths.
https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/ooops-the-royal-commission-report-on-covid-missed-out-the-graph-of-confirmed-covid-deaths-showing
Now do apples and oranges.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/covid?country=USA~BRA~DEU~OWID_WRL~NZL~SWE&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+population=true
You have included various countries who ended up worse off than we did.
Try selecting countries like Japan, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Burkina Faso instead of the countries you have cherry picked and we will look dreadful.
The only relevant comparison is the world as a whole. We were just average.
There would have been roughly 18,000 more dead New Zealander's if we had adopted the UK (Boris) approach to Covid rather than Jacinda's.
And during most of the Covid years because NZ had secure borders we all went to the cricket and rugby and blissfully travelled around our marvelous country while other countries couldn’t do this. The economy also continued to function well. The NZ Covid response was exemplary.
I travelled around WA last year, which also had secure borders including from other states, and the WA people I talked to said they had a great time during Covid just like NZ.
"we all went to the cricket and rugby and blissfully travelled around our marvelous country while other countries couldn’t do this. The economy also continued to function well. The NZ Covid response was exemplary."
Shall I just say that your memories of the time diverge from my own.
Having family and friends in Germany and UK and usually calls every week, I can remember what their restrictions were compared to ours here in NZ. They couldn't believe it when I showed pictures of me at a crowded stadium or going shopping in town like nothing ever happened etc.
The last lockdown in Auckland was definitely problematic though. Something Wellington or South Island didn't have to go through.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/437359/timeline-the-year-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand
Take a look at all the time we spent in level 1. I certainly didn't go to the cricket or rugby, because I can't stand either sport, but was well aware that we were living in a parallel universe to most of the planet. My UK and Europe friends were pretty pissed off at our situation.
Oh, and I highly recommend visiting Queenstown when the borders are closed and Auckland's in lockdown. You will never see the town that empty
I just used the sports events as examples Kay-your dislike for then isn’t a helpful debating point.
I live in Wanaka-while (as you say) Wanaka and Queenstown were blissfully quiet during Covid, dozens and dozens of tourist-related businesses were going bust. The government's help only went so far.
Arse.
The only relevant comparison is with countries with comparable income, health systems and reporting.
Here are some figures for what you might consider to be comparable countries.
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/covid?country=NZL~OWID_WRL~AUS~SGP~KOR~JPN~KWT&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+population=true
Like your ones they have been cherry picked of course. I would think that Japan and Singapore would be more like us than Brazil and the USA though.
According to the World Bank we're a high-income country.
Our cumulative death toll was a third of our high-income country peers.
The countries I chose ARE our peers in terms of income/head.
GDP (PPP) per capita figures for the countries I chose, in US dollars, are Singapore 127K, Australia 62K, Kuwait 58K, New Zealand 52K, South Korea 50K and Japan 46K.
I didn't include Vietnam or other low income countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/
It's helpful to look at remote island nations too, when doing any comparitive analysis.
This "only relevant comparison is with countries with comparable income, health systems and reporting." is part of revisionist history.
Sure, if we had closed borders earlier and had no one returning … then zero cases like the Cook Islands.
Because world-average comparison good, peer-average comparison bad,….right?
/
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/covid?country=NZL~OWID_WRL~High-income+countries&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+population=true
Can you please tell us who this group of "High Income Countries" you are talking about comprises?
And, considering the numbers I have quoted what is it that makes you think that high income countries are New Zealand's peers? Sounds a bit conceited on our part as our record over the last five years certainly doesn't make me think it qualifies now or will qualify in the next few years as being in the "rich" bracket.
Have a look at what Professor McCulloch demonstrates. It can be summed up by the heading
"The IMF confirms that Labour Leader Chris Hipkins Put New Zealand Bottom of Asia Pacific Economies in 2023."
He gives his opinion of the last Government as
"Whatever new PM Chris Luxon's faults, anything is an improvement on Chris Hipkins & the country's Worst Finance Minister Ever, Grant Robertson, as well as former PM Ardern, who divided the country and destroyed NZ's social fabric with her "holier than thou" moralizing, more than any PM before her."
https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/the-imf-confirms-that-labour-leader-chris-hipkins-put-new-zealand-bottom-of-asia-pacific-economies-i?postId=0a304d5b-1fb0-452a-9a49-2ff140677c1b&utm_campaign=a63311aa-6cb5-4cf1-8f3f-2284398d352e&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=a3c8094a-5b09-4028-b5c2-9a66071b3689&cid=632643ad-c0f6-4de1-b74e-f34ebdc1ad74
Sounds like the balanced nuanced and considered position of an academic …
Our rate is much lower than in Europe and the Americas and higher than the lower rate areas, Africa (young population) and Asia.
Brazil, USA and the EU each had more than recorded in all of Asia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/health/covid-africa-deaths.html
China recorded 120,000 in a nation of 1.4B.
Our figure is around that of Oz, not as good as Japan or Singapore.
https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths?m49=554&n=c
apples and
orangesapples.Yes Alwyn – Following a kick to the head from a horse, I take advice on plagues from macro-economists too.
Now, how many dead people would have been acceptable to you?
5,000?
10,000?
20,000?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499516/new-zealand-s-covid-19-response-saved-20-000-lives-research
As people are still dying from Covid, may I suggest you go to one the funerals so you can tell everyone there that its fine, we are just average in the greater scheme of things and your desire for a sausage roll outranks Nana's desire to keep breathing.
I mean, you're totally comfortable here saying your asinine sociopathic shit. How about you walk the talk? Take it to the real world and see how that flies.
Please chill and leave the personal insults, thanks.
Indeed they are, as I may have mentioned before, my elderly neighbour (early 80s, so not too old) broke her hip & was taken to hospital, to recover she was then put in a resthome as the hospital didn't have room, she caught covid, & died, all within a fortnight. Before her hip surgery she was independent, lived by herself, kept an amazing garden & had a busy social life & was a great neighbour.
Don't know about 'scare', but the Covid-19 pandemic killed Kiwis – the number of deaths prevented (and caused) by our pandemic response can only be estimated.
https://www.health.govt.nz/strategies-initiatives/programmes-and-initiatives/covid-19/managing-covid-19-in-new-zealand
Did you read grants article, he pretty much says we should have let many more die foe the economies sake, atleast he's honest unlike ypu. Alwyn
" grants article"
Who is Grant and what is the article you are talking about?
Edit. I’ve just realised you mean Damien Grant.
I certainly don’t think we needed to let more people die. On the other hand I do think we could have done vastly better than we did if we had followed the Taiwanese approach. It helped that their VP was a world authority on such diseases.
if only we could govern with hindsight. The Government made discissions and lead , thats what we hire them for, have a bunch of cur dogs running round attacking what is a part of history is pathetic.
At least I said at the time that I thought our approach should be to follow the example of Taiwan. What did you propose?
We largely did follow an approach similar to Taiwan. For the results on a consistent basis (comparison with pre-covid mortality) see:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?time=earliest..2021-01-03&country=NZL~USA~TWN
and try moving the end point of the comparison, or use the time-lapse facility. Statistics were possibly a bit unreliable in the early months, and the situation now is that vaccination has generally improved regardless of country – but overall NZ and Taiwan both did very well in saving lives..
[This is the second time, please stick to one e-mail address here, thanks – Incognito]
Mod note
So is Reti in the back pocket of United Health? How else can we explain his actions which help this type of predatory corporation?
Oh look private health insurance is corrupt – who would have thought
ALL insurance is corrupt. insurance companies sell you a promise, then do their best to break that promise. thats how they make a profit. living overseas, insurance can be one of the biggest costs.
Depends on the type of company. If they're "mutual", meaning they're owned by the policy-holders, then cover is provided at or near cost, and any profits are returned to the policy-holders. That ain't so bad. It's when they're owned by "investors" looking to make a profit or dividend that you get the kind of sharp practice that United seems to have been indulging in.
I agree with you but their malice goes further than that.
I had a commercial light truck back out of a parking space into me. Driver acknowledged fault and his company had insurance. Long story short, because they denied liability, I was without a vehicle for 9 months and had to chase up police reports, CC footage etc to get things sorted.
Thanks for the link and raising awareness of this site generally.
Wow, the money UnitedHealth Care donated to Kamala Harris. >$770,000. Compared to Trump's poultry $144,000.
Seeing as they spent $10M on lobbying last year, it's easy to see how they can monopolise the health system. Owning the insurance company, the pharmaceuticals companies, the claims processors and the health providers would be a Levy wet dream.
More than 48,000 people died in the USA from gun related violence in 1991 (the most recent available data).
A rich prick who exploits the unfair health care system in the USA gets gunned down and suddenly gun deaths are news.
I know this is not the way to sort out the problem, but I can see it happening again. It’s a symptom of a dysfunctioning system.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/26/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/
Today in 1972 Whetu Tirikātene-Sullivan became first Māori woman Cabinet minister.
https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/whetu-tirik%C4%81tene-sullivan-becomes-first-m%C4%81ori-woman-cabinet-minister
Fuck this is sad.
@itsnooralkhatib
Locals in Syria report that some prisoners they released didn’t know that Hafez Assad is dead.
He died in 2000
They thought Saddam Hussein’s army released them from prison.
He died in 2006.
I am heartbroken, in tears.
They’ve been stuck in prison for more than 40 years.
https://x.com/itsnooralkhatib/status/1865449248298278983
Thousands of stories to be told.
https://bsky.app/profile/maitelsadany.bsky.social/post/3lcr3nnb65k2r
https://bsky.app/profile/patrickzaki.bsky.social/post/3lcr3s7b7z22h
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tal_al-Mallohi
https://bsky.app/profile/maitelsadany.bsky.social/post/3lcqyxuqu7s2q
Gosh
I look forward to the wonderful stories of Syria now becoming a truly pluralist,LBGT friendly democracy
Is there some way Jawlani can be given a blanket pardon for his murders?
https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/washingtondc/news/press-releases/up-to-10-million-reward-offered-for-information-on-the-leader-of-the-al-nusrah-front
Why don't you have a lovely cup of tea and commiserate with your framed portrait of Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Need a break?
Over a decade of mechanised warfare that included chemical weapons, incendiaries, and barrel bombs waged on Syrians by a murderous despot resulting in more than a half million civilian casualties, the incarceration, rape, torture and murder of tens of thousands in a prison system operated like a human abattoir and the forced internal displacement of millions with millions more fleeing their country but .. but… Jalwani!
For shame, you despicable human.
/
Please don’t.
The path of Musk oligarchy.
The one algorithm to rule over all on neo planet X.
Musk speak and direction.
All power to Musk.
And those he anoints.
Musk satellites, phone payments/social media data, Musk AI … and the journey to Panopticon Society … is this the Deep State domestic population control via partnership with enabled corporate (Microsoft monopoly being just the beginning) oligarchy?
When great wealth is in the hands of a few, related to supremacy in power (technology), national governance is manged consent, as in the days when only those men with property could vote.
At what point is this a return to the authority of those like gods (Sumer and planet X), patriarchy over the body of those of women on earth?
You get the feeling Israel and the US has an involvement in this coup. No doubt there's a sizeable piece of Syria Israel claims historically and this is their first foray into taking it for settlement building.
Well it's very good of course for both
Shame about the Palestinians.They've lost Syria as a conduit and really are alone now without help from Iran ,Hezbollah and the Houthis.They are about to be slaughtered
Oh but but Assad!!
Erdogan wanted a deal Assad would not give.
Hezbollah's weakness (after their support for Hamas), Russia being distracted in Ukraine (and waiting for Trump's inauguration) and Iran wary of the sanctions Trump applied last time … so Turkey gave the greenlight for regime change.