Open mike 08/12/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, December 8th, 2024 - 75 comments
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75 comments on “Open mike 08/12/2024 ”

  1. SPC 1

    It appears that the government of Syria is being formally removed from office this week.

    The Russians and Iranians are leaving, the prison where POW were "killed" will be "liberated", and the suburbs of Damascus began falling as soon as the regimes military left to form a "cordon around the capital" (possibly to enable a runner).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

    Hopefully this might facilitate Gulf states assisting with a rebuild and a return of some of the refugees. And that might have a positive impact on Lebanon and its future.

    • Ad 1.1

      It will get far worse should that regime really fall. Worse than Iraq.

      • Ad 1.1.1

        Al Jazeera reports the Assad family have fled Syria.

        Retribution and anomie follow in sticky red.

        Presumably the military take over. Turkey must now be sorely tempted to take Aleppo and carve Syria's North off.

        Mass internal migration and its economic destruction ensue.

        Worst Middle East Christmas in a century.

        • Ad 1.1.1.1

          … and this gives a sense of who the successful warring factions in Syria are aligned to:

          https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/opposition-fighters-damascus-gates-now-116562473

          • SPC 1.1.1.1.1

            'In comments released this morning, Geir O. Pedersen, the United Nations' special envoy to Syria, says today "marks a watershed moment in Syria’s history".

            The country has endured nearly 14 years of civil war, facing "relentless suffering and unspeakable loss," he says.

            He adds: "this dark chapter has left deep scars, but today we look forward with cautious hope to the opening of a new one—one of peace, reconciliation, dignity, and inclusion for all Syrians."

            Barbara Plett Usher
            reporting from Damascus

            I think many people are going to be keeping a low profile for the next few days.

            You also have this rejoicing, with many people feeling that there has been a very authoritarian regime for decades.

            It was significant that one of the first things the rebels did was go to the prison to release the inmates, among them probably many political dissidents who had been detained and tortured. That was one of the many prisons infamous for that.

            There's the possibility of change; maybe there's the possibility of a political solution.

            https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

        • SPC 1.1.1.2

          Mass internal migration and its economic destruction ensue

          Little of that has occurred with the advance so far. And given Damascus suburbs are falling and the army has developed a cordon outside it – not that likely there either.

          Worst Middle East Christmas in a century.

          The ME had it easier in WW1, the carnage in Iraq and Syria (failed state) and Libya (failed state) has been next level.

          The U.N. special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, seeks urgent talks in Geneva to ensure an “orderly political transition,” saying the situation is changing by the minute. He met with foreign ministers and senior diplomats from eight key countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Turkey and Iran on the sidelines of the Doha Summit.

          The Arab League (Egypt) and Turkey need to step up – given Turkey has agendas, this is best done by UNSC mandate.

          1.UN administration

          2.UN development to establish the path to governance (by election) and a fund for a rebuild.

      • SPC 1.1.2

        It has been worse than Iraq for a long time already.

        So many refugees, a lot more damage to infrastructure.

    • Subliminal 1.2

      In Gaza, the genocide grinds relentlessly on. More than 1400 families have now been completely erased from the Civil registry with over 3700 families now having only one survivor. Gaza has more child amputees than any other place on Earth.

      In the North, ethnic cleansing in preparation of Israeli settlement is in it's ninth week. Food and medical aid are non existent with famine and disease rampant. In the last 60 days in the North nearly 4000 Palestinians are dead or missing with another 10 000 missing.

      Eyewitness testimonies have revealed that up to 650 bodies of Palestinians have been lying in the streets for two consecutive months due to the prevention by the Israeli military of allowing rescue, emergency and paramedic crews from accessing the bodies, the Gaza government media office stated. Stray dogs have been devouring the bodies scattered in the streets and the corpses have still not been identified…

      While Americans were gathering for Thanksgiving meals on Thursday, 28 November, more than 75 Palestinians including children were killed in two separate strikes on residential buildings in Beit Lahiya.

      At Kamal Adwan Hospital, the director of the ICU was killed as he entered the front door of the hospital. The director of the hospital, Abu Safiya, who has himself been badly wounded and lost his son while he helped his father at the hospital, was once again leading prayers for a dead colleague that had been deliberately targeted by the IDF.

      Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen are the few countries that have had the courage to stand in the way of this outrageous western supported and encouraged, genocide. Unsurprisingly and so coincidentally after the Lebonese ceasefire, the dirty war in Syria has been reignited as a means to finally cut the support lines to Lebanon and Palestine.

      Your characterisation of the rebranded AL Quaeda affiliates, otherwise known as headchoppers as some kind of liberation force for Syria is perverse in the extreme.

      It is notable that, as Jon Elmer and Ali Abunimah of the Electronic Intifada explain, Israel played video of Hayat Tahrir al Sham fighters almost immediately after the fighting began. This although Israel bans any depiction of enemy fighters and their abilities shown on Israeli media. The inference being that THS are not enemies. Israel has given significant aid to the headchoppers in the past and is engaged in outrageous atrocities in Gaza so no surprise there.

      https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/nora-barrows-friedman/israel-attacks-north-gaza-hospital-fifth-time

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7EUps7wU4j4&t=1s&pp=2AEBkAIB

      • SPC 1.2.1

        You should provide a link to identify the significant aid to THS from Israel.

        Your characterisation of the rebranded AL Quaeda affiliates, otherwise known as headchoppers as some kind of liberation force for Syria is perverse in the extreme

        No I wrote this

        Hopefully this might facilitate Gulf states assisting with a rebuild and a return of some of the refugees. And that might have a positive impact on Lebanon and its future.

        The Turks seem to want the return of refugees to Syria. It is obvious Gulf states are more likely to provide aid (Syria and Lebanon) with the removal of Iranian presence, than with it still there.

        • SPC 1.2.1.1

          There will be wider fears that Syria could plunge into an even more calamitous state, with various factions battling each other for control. In an already desperately unstable and volatile region, that could feed more dangerous unrest.

          But for now at least, many Syrians both inside and outside the county are united by a hope that many felt they might never experience again – that they might be able to return to their homes, long lost in the bitter war that Assad's violent repression of protest and dissent originally triggered.

          https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxdd2r2191o

        • Subliminal 1.2.1.2

          I did. Its in the video. Israel has never denied non lethal aid nor surgery for the many flavors of al Quaeda fighters. The current crop are already pledging allegiance to Israel in the form of normalization when they take control of the Syrian state.

          From the above video, at about 6 13, AP reports that Syria was offered sanctions relief in exchange for turning its back on Lebanon, Palestine and Iran. They refused but I guess the message is that the Syrian govt is only a pariah so long as it opposes Washington.

          At around 8 13 Times of Israel reports from US backed Syrian fighters on the benefits of Israeli attacks on Iranian and Syrian fighters involved with actual opposition to al Quaeda. This is where the Israeli airforce got the monika of al Quaeda's airforce.

          This includes expressions of gratitude to Israel.

          From 10 10 Timber Sycamore and the CIA financed by Saudi pouring cash and weapons into Syria.

          Also,

          https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/06/in-secret-program-israel-armed-and-funded-rebel-groups-in-southern-syria/

          And on supply of actual hardware.

          https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-chief-acknowledges-long-claimed-weapons-supply-to-syrian-rebels/

      • Dennis Frank 1.2.2

        Not disagreeing, but it's possible that not all islamic fundamentalists are head-choppers. The warlord seems more intent on regime-building: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/4/who-is-abu-mohamad-al-julani-the-leader-of-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-in-syria

        According to Hassan Hassan, a Syrian expert on armed groups in the Levant, al-Julani wants to brand HTS as a credible governing entity in Syria and a possible partner in global counterterrorism efforts.

        HTS is currently labelled a “terrorist” organisation by the United Nations, Turkiye, the US and European Union. Al-Julani has said this designation is unfair since his group has renounced its past allegiances in favour of a national one.

        Not credible unless he renounces barbaric violence too, of course! However realpolitik allows incremental improvement so western labelling ought to be flexible.

        • Subliminal 1.2.2.1

          Oh right. A one time leader of Al Quaeda in Syria to be ethically cleansed as a freedom fighter without ever having to face any kind of judiciary for his crimes??!

          This is just typical of US imperialism. Rebrand and shove down the memory hole. I mean, 2011, who can even remember that far back any more. Maybe Fukuyama was right and we really have reached the end of history?? Nothing in the past has any meaning anymore so long as you're on board with the rules based order?? Just make Te Tiriti mean whatever because it's so far in the past!!

  2. Dennis Frank 2

    On TDB yesterday Bomber posed an extremely difficult question: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2024/12/07/how-is-it-misinformation-if-the-teen-died-during-transition-to-the-community-phase-of-the-boot-camp-programme-blood-is-still-on-the-hands-of-the-government/

    He's worried about this RNZ story: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535892/greens-accused-of-spreading-misinformation-over-teen-s-bootcamp-death

    Here's how Jo Moir, RNZ Political Editor, framed the issue:

    Karen Chhour, the minister in charge of the boot camp programme, told RNZ, "it's extremely disappointing that the Greens have chosen to spread misinformation about the tragic death of a young person… Tamatha Paul should be ashamed of herself."

    Now whether it is information or not depends on what the Green MP wrote on social media and Jo helpfully includes a screenshot of that in her account:

    Waking to the news that a rangatahi has died in the newly established boot camps set up by this abusive government.

    Jo also told us the teen died in a crash in Tirau; but not that the boot camp is in Tirau. So the truth of the Green MP's claim hinges on whether it is or not.

    It's a schrodinger's cat situation: she's not actually lying about his death until the news media observe the location of the boot camp and report it to us. So we're all in limbo with Bomber wondering if her claim is misinformation. The truth is out there – we just need someone to go find it. Jo Moir wrote "the Green Party is standing by the social media post". Are they really that stupid? Chloe needs another lying Green MP like a hole in the head. I bet she's hoping the crash did really happen in the boot camp in Tirau.

    [I don’t think it’s ironic that you’re pivoting articles abut spreading misinformation to spread misinformation yourself.

    Now whether it is information or not depends on what the Green MP wrote on social media and Jo helpfully includes a screenshot of that in her account:

    The Green MP [Tamatha Paul] never wrote that; she shared another social media post on Instagram.

    I bet she’s [Chlöe Swarbrick] hoping the crash did really happen in the boot camp in Tirau.

    I bet you do. Your bias against the Green Party and its MPs is on display here again. I could explain how low and stupid your last sentence is, but it’s self-evident. You’ve been warned to lift your game but you’re unwilling to do so, so off to boot camp for you for a week – Incognito]

    • Incognito 2.1

      Mod note

    • Muttonbird 2.2

      It is ironic that Miss Trunchbull Karen Chhour accuses others of politicising young offenders when it is her party's policy, in exhuming military style bootcamps, to literally do just that, politicise young offenders for political gain. ACT have very specific set of headline grabbing projects which they use to market themselves with.

      In light of the two from the bootcamp who absconded at the tangi of the one who died turning straight to car conversion, one question which you didn't consider is, was the deceased driving the car which hit the tourist bus? Was that car a stolen car? Or perhaps the kid was not really being supervised in transition properly as we had been led to believe.

      Mark Mitchell's Men have been very quiet on the circumstances of this very political accident. Maybe to protect the coalition government???

      I look forward to your response after you have served your ban.

  3. SPC 3

    Our debt to GDP went from 31.8% (2019) to 45.77% (2023).

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/436529/national-debt-of-new-zealand-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

    Public debt to GDP in the USA went from 80% (2019) to 100% (2020) in the USA under Trump. Falling to 96% in 2021.

    https://usafacts.org/articles/federal-debts-deficits-and-the-effect-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-both/

    AI says

    The US federal debt to GDP ratio in 2024 is expected to be around 123%:

    • U.S. Treasury: The debt to GDP ratio in 2024 is 123%, based on a debt of $35.46 trillion and an average GDP of $28.82 trillion.
    • Trading Economics: The government debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 124.30% by the end of 2024.

    The US government debt to GDP ratio has averaged 65.70% from 1940 to 2023. The all-time high was 126.30% in 2020, and the record low was 31.80% in 1981.

    This is using total debt to GDP, as shown here.

    From 106% debt to GDP in 2019, to 126% in 2020 under Trump.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp

    Just so you know, what a turnip the libertarian (better off if more of us died) writing in Stuff is, on all matters economics.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360513485/damien-grant-new-zealand-ashamed-about-what-happened-covid-years

    • Ad 3.1

      Why is comparing NZ debt to GDP levels to that of the USA useful at all?

      • SPC 3.1.1

        1.to compare the impact of COVID on debt levels of nations, in response to the column by Grant.

        2.to demonstrate that National's claim of a particular problem for them in government, is no different than many other nations post COVID.

        • Ad 3.1.1.1

          The US GDP is US$29 trillion. Its public debt alone is US$33.1 trillion. No one talks realistically about paying it back, or even whether it makes sense as a ratio to anything.

          The NZ GDP is about US$260 million. Our public debt is US$175 million or thereabouts. For a small country like us or Denmark or Fiji or similar, that really matters.

          The left need to forget trading on the 'success' of getting us through the pandemic, and start describing what an actual successful economy looks like. At the moment all Labour and the Greens are doing is talking about taxes and patching up a few public institutions.

          Many including myself don't want National+NZF+Act's extraction economy which is finite and dumb. But I don't see any party charting something different.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 3.1.1.1.1

            The NZ GDP is about US$260 million. Our public debt is US$175 million or thereabouts.

            Should that be billion? And public debt at 67% of GDP seems on the high side?

            https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/year-end/financial-statements-2024

          • SPC 3.1.1.1.2

            Oh, your distraction is premised on

            1.not caring about relativity to other nations

            (some nations have higher debt than the USA)

            or wanting it limited to only small nations

            You mention Denmark, which is undergoing an export boom (40% increase in exports after 2020 – pharmaceuticals …).

            AI Overview

            OECD

            The average debt-to-GDP ratio for OECD countries increased by 14.1 percentage points between 2019 and 2021

            In 2021, the average debt-to-GDP ratio for OECD countries was 121%. Debt levels increased in 36 out of 37 OECD countries with available information

            Europe

            https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=europe

            G20

            https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=g20

            Oz, its debt to GDP

            20% in 2019, to 25% in 2020, to 36% in 2021. It is now 43.8%.

            https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

          • SPC 3.1.1.1.3

            The left need to forget trading on the 'success' of getting us through the pandemic, and start describing what an actual successful economy looks like. At the moment all Labour and the Greens are doing is talking about taxes and patching up a few public institutions.

            The path towards that will not be by ceding the debt narrative to people like the columnist, Luxon and Willis.

            1.patching up public institutions, maintaining their purpose in a modern democratic society, is a core job.

            2.being spooked by debt levels is a methodology of those who want private sector capital dominance in the order of economic society.

            3.any functioning government requires a tax base.

            The term for this is prerequisite.

            What sort of national economy we should have now, soon, or in the future is dependent on the world environment around us. This is less easy to predict than usual (even without the necessary factoring in of GW).

    • Bearded Git 3.2

      Government debt under Labour/Greens/NZF fell from 21.6% of GDP to 18.6% between 2016 and 2019. Then along came Covid when, encouraged and supported by the Nats, government spending under Labour to keep businesses/the economy from crashing, and also due to the Covid fall in GDP, caused Government debt to GDP to rise to 39.3% of GDP.

      https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-debt-to-gdp

  4. Kay 4

    Silly me, I took the clickbait and read it. Hold your nose and try not to scream, swear etc. if you make the decision to.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360513485/damien-grant-new-zealand-ashamed-about-what-happened-covid-years

    Obviously, Damien and co. still haven't grasped the concept of they're still alive to write crap like this.

    This research paper might provide an explanation for the thought patterns of Damien and David (US-centric but broadly applicable).

    But what might explain the libertarian focus on liberty to the exclusion of other moral concerns? Recent work in moral psychology suggests that moral attitudes arise, at least in part, from low-level “dispositional traits” [23], emotional reactions [8], [24], social function [17], and the moralization of preferences [10]. These moral attitudes have, in turn, been found to be associated with ideological self-identification [3], [9].

    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3424229/

  5. adam 5

    So is Reti in the back pocket of United Health? How else can we explain his actions which help this type of predatory corporation?

    Oh look private health insurance is corrupt – who would have thought

    • woodart 5.1

      ALL insurance is corrupt. insurance companies sell you a promise, then do their best to break that promise. thats how they make a profit. living overseas, insurance can be one of the biggest costs.

      • Obtrectator 5.1.1

        Depends on the type of company. If they're "mutual", meaning they're owned by the policy-holders, then cover is provided at or near cost, and any profits are returned to the policy-holders. That ain't so bad. It's when they're owned by "investors" looking to make a profit or dividend that you get the kind of sharp practice that United seems to have been indulging in.

      • gsays 5.1.2

        I agree with you but their malice goes further than that.

        I had a commercial light truck back out of a parking space into me. Driver acknowledged fault and his company had insurance. Long story short, because they denied liability, I was without a vehicle for 9 months and had to chase up police reports, CC footage etc to get things sorted.

    • gsays 5.2

      Thanks for the link and raising awareness of this site generally.

      Wow, the money UnitedHealth Care donated to Kamala Harris. >$770,000. Compared to Trump's poultry $144,000.

      Seeing as they spent $10M on lobbying last year, it's easy to see how they can monopolise the health system. Owning the insurance company, the pharmaceuticals companies, the claims processors and the health providers would be a Levy wet dream.

    • Bearded Git 5.3

      More than 48,000 people died in the USA from gun related violence in 1991 (the most recent available data).

      A rich prick who exploits the unfair health care system in the USA gets gunned down and suddenly gun deaths are news.

      I know this is not the way to sort out the problem, but I can see it happening again. It’s a symptom of a dysfunctioning system.

      https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/26/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/

  6. Joe90 6

    Today in 1972 Whetu Tirikātene-Sullivan became first Māori woman Cabinet minister.

    https://nzhistory.govt.nz/page/whetu-tirik%C4%81tene-sullivan-becomes-first-m%C4%81ori-woman-cabinet-minister

  7. Joe90 7

    Fuck this is sad.

    @itsnooralkhatib

    Locals in Syria report that some prisoners they released didn’t know that Hafez Assad is dead.

    He died in 2000

    They thought Saddam Hussein’s army released them from prison.

    He died in 2006.

    I am heartbroken, in tears.

    They’ve been stuck in prison for more than 40 years.

    https://x.com/itsnooralkhatib/status/1865449248298278983

  8. SPC 8

    The path of Musk oligarchy.

    The one algorithm to rule over all on neo planet X.

    Musk speak and direction.

    All power to Musk.

    And those he anoints.

    Musk satellites, phone payments/social media data, Musk AI … and the journey to Panopticon Society … is this the Deep State domestic population control via partnership with enabled corporate (Microsoft monopoly being just the beginning) oligarchy?

    When great wealth is in the hands of a few, related to supremacy in power (technology), national governance is manged consent, as in the days when only those men with property could vote.

    At what point is this a return to the authority of those like gods (Sumer and planet X), patriarchy over the body of those of women on earth?

  9. Muttonbird 9

    You get the feeling Israel and the US has an involvement in this coup. No doubt there's a sizeable piece of Syria Israel claims historically and this is their first foray into taking it for settlement building.

    • francesca 9.1

      Well it's very good of course for both

      Shame about the Palestinians.They've lost Syria as a conduit and really are alone now without help from Iran ,Hezbollah and the Houthis.They are about to be slaughtered

      Oh but but Assad!!

    • SPC 9.2

      Erdogan wanted a deal Assad would not give.

      Hezbollah's weakness (after their support for Hamas), Russia being distracted in Ukraine (and waiting for Trump's inauguration) and Iran wary of the sanctions Trump applied last time … so Turkey gave the greenlight for regime change.

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