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6:00 am, February 9th, 2024 - 89 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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So already the cuts have begun to bite. 100 classrooms on hold, with rising immigration actively worsening things.
Reports by the Education Minister that she is consulting is interesting. Who with ?you may ask, as Principals say they do not know what the new priorities are, and they have had no formal or face to face contact. Just a list of "On hold" since the election.
Everyone knows from media statements 3 hours for 3 rs,
7.5 cuts to budgets, which plus inflation is really huge. (This is capital expenditure which is not included!!) So children miss out again.
So we are in a freeze.????
It makes sense when you remember the National Party was formed to stop the Labour Party doing anything. They consider 'on hold' to be fulfilling that promise.
It's just the start. And it's serious.
Mayor Wayne Brown on RNZ this morning recognised how many projects will just be stopped. Even something as big as Eastern Busway, or the new CRL trains. That was one small tax adjustment.
Brown is forecasting the point for all other mayors: local government should be able to set the priorities for the locals who vote for them. Not Wellington.
March has more pre-announcements going through every other Department: Health, Education, Welfare, Transport, Kainga Ora, Conservation, SSC, DPMC, Crown Law, DIA, MBIE, MfE, MoT, Maori Affairs, and all the minor quangoes like HRC. Queue groaning.
Which state entities can defend their forecasts? I'm betting the ones that come out well: Corrections, Police, NZDF, SIS, Treasury.
March leads to May Budget.
With those cuts Willis gets to deliver tax cuts. As she and Luxon promised.
Tory economic shitfuckary at it's finest.
It's TINA time again and I don't mean Tina from Turners.
Of course there are alternatives, but not in the small minds of Tory s*bs who can't see beyond their wallet.
As always, its the inability of Tory economics to get off it's knees from corporate blowing and jerking which is the real problem.
Tova O'Brien makes the point I made yesterday 🙂 that Seymour is undermining Luxon by calling him nervous and a liar. I can't remember this happening before.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350173342/pm-may-want-get-his-elbows-out-over-treaty-principles-bill
And, is anyone able to tell us what is this paywalled article?
Luxon really needs to lance the boil that is David Seymour. Very high risk letting the situation continue.
Try this link
https://archive.is/37w4o
Thanks, Hooten is rightly terrified of Seymour having the time and space to spend the huge amounts of shadowy far right wing funding on manipulating public opinion.
Basically its Hooton being his usual Machiavellian self by attacking Seymour's Treaty Bill while making what seem reasonable suggestions. However on closer scrutiny they are anything but. This gem of an article is about Paul Goldsmith apologising and settling outstanding Ngati Hine grievances by putting a wedge between them and Ngapuhi. Just the sort of Maori vs Maori turmoil he would enjoy setting up.
My view is if National really want to shut Seymour up they need to back Goldsmith in Epson. As we all know Seymour is only where he is due to the National Party's gerrymandering.
Gerrymandering yes but in the words of a famous (ior infamous )ex president, Epsom is always a rgged election .
Gerrymandering is manipulating electorate boundaries to favour a particular political party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
I don't think that there is any evidence of this going on here, and no evidence of the Representation Commission (the organization which sets the electorate boundaries) being influenced by any political party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_electorates#Distribution
If you do have evidence of this occurring, then please share it.
If you mean that Seymour is using MMP to increase ACT representation in parliament – by gaining a higher individual vote in Epsom than the ACT party vote – and that this is reprehensible; then you would have to condemn virtually every TPM MP for doing the same thing – I think in every Maori electorate the party vote was higher for Labour than it was for TPM.
No, the equivalent would be Labour and TPM entering an agreement where Labour deliberately throws Maori seats by encouraging voters to vote for TPM candidate.
Perhaps you have evidence of this happening in the last election?
Regardless of whether you agree with the practice or not – it is not gerrymandering.
Sure, but your comparison was false. Likely deliberately in an effort to water down the unscrupulous National/ACT arrangement in Epsom.
Is it worse for political parties to openly signal to their (potential) voters? Or for there to just be a nudge and a wink?
Tactical voting is part and parcel of MMP.
Difference being there's collusion between National and ACT in Epsom, but none in the Maori electorates between Labour and TPM which is what you implied with the comparison.
Like I said, a good way to dilute the mischievousness in Epsom is to claim both sides do it, even if that is untrue.
How about the 'collusion' in Invercargill between the Greens and Labour?
In 2020 the GP candidate openly endorsed the Labour one, and in 2023 – they pulled the GP candidate completely to try and gain the seat for the Left
https://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/132829589/no-green-candidate-for-invercargill
I think you came unstuck after the point you made about the definition of gerrymandering. Should have stopped there perhaps?
Because now you seem desperate to justify the now 16 year arrangement National and ACT have had in Epsom.
To point , but it's only national that have poisoned mmp by keeping act alive ,
And I'm quite sure that the same could be said by the Right – over (for example) Jim Anderton.
ATM – and for the last couple of elections – ACT have not needed the 'Epsom accommodation' – since their party vote is perfectly sufficient to get them over the 5% threshold.
Bugger me Belladonna.
You get Te Pāti Māori are the smartest voters in the country, we be doing polling, we understand overhang. You and others talked about it enough. Oh and Maori know what a deal means, honour, and playing the hand that has been dealt. Te Pāti Māori don't need to beg like some serf.
We don't need dirty deals, we have an open honest one. Old too, 11 years till hundred years in parlimentary terms with the election of Eruera and Tokouru.
Yep very clever voting in the Māori electorates and good on them.
To many Pākehā and Māori voted whinge bag Winny. Rather than a party who would work with the left. Gotta love hindsight though. I'm hearing some seriously extreme buyers remorse on this one, in my own family, even.
Oh dear. I think some will be more circumspect in the future.
I was referring to the fact that TPM won each of the Māori Seats and that Labour got the highest Party vote in each electorate, thereby helping the Labour Māori Caucus.
The dreams of Matiu Waitai Rata fulfilled?
How did it help the Labour Maori caucus? Most have resigned (Davis, etc.) or signalled retirement (Jackson).
Have a think.
Not interested in guessing games. If you have an answer, give it.
It's not all that difficult:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494829/labour-releases-party-list-for-2023-election
So tactical voting by Left voters for TPM and Green electorate candidates is fine; but tactical voting by the Right for ACT candidates is morally wrong?
Tactical voting is the way MMP works. You can't, honestly, decry it on the right, but celebrate it on the left.
Sooooo not interested in your offer!
Straw man – argument on your part.
No deal was made by Te Pāti Māori for seats. Unlike act and the prime member of the collective of corporate cock suckers. (CCCS)
The moral question you raise is interesting – should parties gift other parties seats like the prime CCCS has done to act (a minor member of CCCS)?
Nothing wrong with smart voting, just seat fixing is the moral questionable. Indeed it is a cheapening of democracy, but the right have no problem with that concept, and throw out all sorts of useful idiots to spread it's BS around it.
Previously yes, but he's actually a very active and effective elecorate mp so I doubt a Nat candidate would get near him even with say Luxon's endorsement.
Also Brooke Van Velden took the Tamaki electorate, in the teeth of fierce National opposition – no cup of tea there. ACT (little though you may like them) are currently pulling a substantial percentage of the vote in NZ.
Has Seymour ever expressed a liking for playing chess?
He has a series of moves available to him that threaten Luxon with, or hold him in check.
He can crash Luxon's Government at any point and can block National from getting back in should they seek to regain their position.
While his One Big Mission would go on hold, much of the groundwork has already been done; other branches of the Movement can continue with manipulating the public mind over the role of Māori and the hold they have on resources.
He's backing himself and playing hardball (as well as chess) imo.
At one point I had assumed Seymour would not allow himself too be seen as a trouble maker in government, rather wanting to be a serious, dependable player.
But now I don't think he cares, his ideological mission to dilute and disperse Te ao Māori too important to him and his backers, to the point of obsession.
Hooton makes some good points in his article today (paywalled) here:
"Seymour’s bill and “information” campaign will cause ill-informed division and unnecessary angst, before being voted down 112-11 by Parliament. It will then be for Goldsmith, in both his major portfolios, to bring common sense and integrity to heal those wounds. As Justice Minister, he could pick up Prebble’s idea and strengthen everyone’s equal rights of citizenship without undermining anyone’s differing exclusive rights, including to property and other treasures. As Minister for Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations, it turns to Goldsmith to succeed …. in settling the historic claims of the northern tribes of Ngāpuhi. Historic settlements don’t extinguish the Crown’s contemporary Treaty obligations but they help iwi put their fury behind them and focus on the economic and social development of their people, in partnership with or independently of the state. Nothing would do more to restore a harmonious relationship between the Crown and northern iwi, while boosting Northland’s struggling economy."
It is interesting that Hooton has little time for Seymour.
We're to pin our hopes on Goldsmith?
Aue!
So, unreasonable ACT is paving the way for ‘reasonable’ National? Yeah, right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door-in-the-face_technique
Remember that Goldsmith has been gifting Epsom to ACT/Seymour in a number of elections.
Act’s Mr Seymour tries to distance himself from Atlas Network. Check out page 7 of the 2008 Atlas Review, Mr Seymour is pictured with some then Atlas leading lights and prospects during his Canadian stint.
https://admin.atlasnetwork.org/assets/documents/financials/22209874-Atlas-Year-in-Review-2008_1.pdf
This should be spread far and wide. The association is provable not conspiracy. Act are attacking Te Tiriti not just for “Māori bashing” purposes, but to assist international capital to exploit NZ resources.
Even Gosman, [deleted] saw the problems of being associated with Atlas. Tried very hard to claim there is no such connection.
[I’ve never heard that about Gosman before and I have no way of checking. Please don’t try and break pseudonyms. I protect them on principle, that includes RW trolls, and you. – weka]
From the document I linked to @ #3…
“Graduates of the 2008 Atlas MBA for Think Tanks
Kwadwo Afari (Citizens Network for Democracy and Economic Development, Ghana)
Khalil Ahmad (Alternate Solutions Institute, Pakistan) Judith Auma (Inter Region Economic Network, Uganda) Matt Bufton (Institute for Liberal Studies, Canada) Brad Bergh (Caesar Rodney Institute, U.S.A.) Rosamaria Bitetti (Istituto Bruno Leoni, Italy)
Amit Chandra (Centre for Civil Society, India)
Alphonse Crespo (Medicine & Liberty, Switzerland)
D. Dhanuraj (Centre for Public Policy Research, India)
Rand Getlin (Prometheus Institute, U.S.A.)
Matt Harrison (Prometheus Institute, U.S.A.)
Tabriz Jabbarov (Free Minds Association, Azerbaijan)
Biljana Janeva (OHRID Institute, Macedonia)
Thomas David Maqway (Center for Prosperity and Economic
Liberty, Tanzania)
Arpita Nepal Samriddhi (The Prosperity Foundation, Nepal) Mpumelelo (Lelo) Nxumalo (Committee for the Economic
Development of Zimbabwe)
Javier Paz (Fundación Nueva Democracia, Bolivia)
Omar Shaban Ismail (PalThink for Strategic Studies, Palestine) Jim Shaffer (Public Policy Foundation of West Virginia, U.S.A.) Fernando Staffieri (Fundación Libertad, Argentina)
David Seymour (Frontier Centre for Public Policy, Canada) Corin Taylor (TaxPayers Alliance, U.K.)
Sugey Tola (Ecuadorian Institute of Political Economy, Ecuador) Marcin Wegierski (Project Lodz Foundation, Poland) Randolph Williams (Centre for Policy Initiatives, Guyana) Batbold Zagdragchaa (New Policy Institute, Mongolia)”
Be careful here. There maybe more than one David Seymour in this world with ties to Atlas Think Tanks.
I know that there are at least 3 academics with the same name as myself who write on very similar subjects. I constantly receive notifications from around the world thinking that I was the person who wrote or commented on a particular paper.
You are invited to open the link at #3 there are several photos of Mr David Seymour, start at page 7.
Ahhh! thanks for that.
It certainly seems to be the same – ie "our"! -David Seymour as the reference in the Atlas Year in Review 2008 linked to in Tiger Mountain's comment at 3 to "David Seymour (Frontier Centre for Public Policy, Canada)" aligns with the Wikipedia entry for "our" David Seymour.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Seymour
The Wikipedia entry refers to his years in Canada in the early 2000s in the second para of the full entry; and then again in the "Early Life" section, ie:
"Seymour worked in Canada as a policy analyst for five years for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, Canada and the Manning Centre (6)"
Wikipedia provides quick links to both these organisations, and the article in footnote (6) –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontier_Centre_for_Public_Policy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Strong_and_Free_Network
https://web.archive.org/web/20210624211342/https://nzbpt.nz/david-seymour-mp
Note for Mods – first comment again for years; not sure if I've used the same email as before …
Welcome back.
I’ve approved this new email of yours, so please stick to this one from now on, thanks.
mod note.
Stop worrying about ACT. They are already out-manoeuvered.
Not even the Greens had their core legislation strangled at birth.
Seems naive. The longer it goes on the more difficult it is to shut down.
If it's true Luxon is sniffing the wind on public opinion and he made the call to now be unequivocal, that decision must have been aided by the mahi done at Waitangi.
Quite why he'd hand over operations to David Seymour is baffling. Even more difficult now for Luxton to control the narrative.
Still, making Rimmer associate justice minister only to then strip him of it would be profound. He might have to do that.
Act where point fuck all of a % a few years back, don't take them lightly, especially with a weak as f pm who's only goal is to be pm.
Just 6 years ago in 2017 ACT got 0.5% of the party vote.
There many reasons for the resurgence to 8% in 2023 but the most important was the collapse of the National Party in 2020.
Nick Rockel reckons:
"That’s the ugly truth. ACT are happy to have this debate even if it goes nowhere. Although I’m sure they still believe that the money, which is no doubt behind this, will speak loudly when the time comes.
It’s hard not to draw the conclusion from this that Seymour has played Luxon, and that he has won."
https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/little-by-little
"
This Herald article is somewhat concerning:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/police-commissioner-andrew-coster-and-police-minister-mark-mitchell-texts-reveal-insight-into-relationship/ZCCH2R5YKNEUNCCBWNHNEOMSHQ/
Police minister Mitchell and Commissioner Coster seem to have a matey relationship – sufficiently so to be passing text messages about operational matters and warnings of… who might be waiting somewhere to get an impromptu interview with the minister.
Did Coster have such a relationship with the previous government minsters? I doubt it. It smacks of a form of political nepotism and a potential lack of impartiality when dealing with certain sections of society.
Bearing in mind Mark Mitchell is known to be a bully boy, this situation does not auger well for fair and impartial policing practices.
Nash overstepped the bounds as Police Minister by contacting Coster, and subsequently lost his job after two more similar issues (not to do with Coster).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Nash#2023_ministerial_indiscretions_and_resignation
Imo the Police Commissioner should not be texting the Police Minister at all. The message from Coster telling Mitchel about talking to a journalist should have been a formal email not a causal text. We have a degree of separation between police and government for good reasons, and part of that is how the appearance of separation.
"We have a degree of separation between police and government for good reasons,…"
Precisely.
Not wishing to appear to be defending Coster, but Mitchell is not past placing the relationship on a more 'intimate' level to ensure he has control of everything that is occurring regardless of whether it falls under his jurisdiction or not.
Which is (apparently) what Nash did – justifying it by his long-standing 'buddy' relationship with Coster.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/05/texts-between-former-police-minister-stuart-nash-and-police-commissioner-andrew-coster-released.html
If there is evidence of Mitchell doing the same (i.e. directing the police on operational matters – whether via text or any other method of communication) – he should suffer the same consequences.
If the communication is limited to 'heads up alerts' – then it can certainly be covered under the 'no surprises' rule that applies to all Ministries and their MPs.
Well if nothing else it certainly reveals “Andy” is a bit of a crawler. It should not be assumed any top cop is a liberal–NZ Police culture is still by and large macho, violent, misogynist, racist and holds long lasting grudges. Modern cops sometimes put some trendy spin on their activities but I predict policing will be more heavy duty and targeting the bottom 50% under this Govt.
A peaceful Palestine solidarity action at Lyttleton was subjected to police violence and elderly people pepper sprayed even after they had moved off a roadway onto the footpath, veteran activist 70 year old John Minto coming in for particular attention and a nasty bashing by gum chewing arrogant coppers.
The sworn police unspoken but primary task is to maintain capitalist property relations. It is why the plods turn up to a union picket in 10 minutes after an employer phone call, and may…get around to investigating your car break in.
Coster can not be trusted, was always suspicious why the Groundswell occupation of Parliament was not evicted on day one. Coster’s job is safe if he implements Mitchell’s bully boy agenda.
How does that read?
or this one,
Is that your version of a thought experiment weka?
It may surprise you to know that I think Parliament grounds and surrounds should be free of long term occupations by any group.
Protest is a legitimate part of democracy. We shouldn't be asking for permission. The freedom protests fucked that up, I don't know if Coster made that worse or less worse.
to clarify that a bit, the UK and Australia have both brought in legislation that undermines right to protest and thus democracy. In that sense Coster did right, but the fallout may mean we end up with such reactionary legislation. It would be good if the left didn't buy into that.
In a related tangent, it is my understanding, after talking to a senior police official, that Coster was called into a meeting with 3 senior politicians. This was the early days of the Wellies parliament occupation.
Police orders at around 6pm was that the steps of the Beehive were the line no-one was to cross. At around 10pm (after said meeting) the orders were changed and that was when the first, clumsy attempt to clear the grounds was made.
Political interference, like being influenced by lobbyists, isn't just a National thing.
quite agree that political interference isn't just a Nat thing. Reference also Nash, which makes me think it's an authoritarian thing instead (political compass).
It's on my list to go back and look at the protest and what happened and write about it. Might talk to you when I get going on that, if that's ok, pick your brains.
Yep, sure.
You can use my sign in email if that works for you.
thanks, that's great.
Interesting about the Palestine action at Lyttleton.
There was a recent Sunday gathering of around 200 protesters who marched to the Devonport Naval Base. I happened to drive past the local reserve where they were assembling. There were police officers everywhere – including van loads of them tucked around corners. Not knowing what was going on, I slowed down to have a good look at the protesters' banners. Next minute a posse of police officers appeared close by watching me intently as if they suspected I was about to commit a violent act. We're talking about an elderly woman here. I sped off in astonishment.
It seems like “orders from the top” re policing the Palestinian solidarity actions.
I guess ports are regarded as strategic assets not to be interfered with by the likes of ordinary people trying to stop the Israeli butchers.
Don't know about ports in general – but a naval base is another matter. Unsurprising that there was elevated security with a protest specifically directed towards them.
"…police officers appeared close by watching me intently as if they suspected I was about to commit a violent act. "
What did you expect them to do ignore you completely?
If a van slows down close to a group of protesters especially when the issue at hand is so highly emotional and violent then of course the police (if they are doing their job) are going to scrutinize it closely.
Oh dear:
1) The march hadn't started so there was no "highly emotional" activity.
2) There was no violence before, during or after the event according to media reports.
3) There were plenty of passing motorists although not as I passed the scene.
4) There was no van in sight – apart from police vans around the corner.
5) It was a small Toyota Yaris.
6) The driver was a harmless, short-sighted elderly lady [with special medium vision glasses] peering at the scene and wondering what it was about.
7) Methinks the cops in question were going about their business with just a tad too much enthusiasm.
8) Finally, I saw it as an amusing moment, but it would seem your soh needs a seriously good polish old chap.
Edit: And the venue was one 1 km away from the Naval Base.
Sorry not sure why I said van must have been stuck in my head from the police vans you mentioned.
In regards to 1) and 2) I meant the Israel / Palestine issue as a whole, not the particular event involved here. Police have been told to be extra vigilant in regard to any activities associated with current events in the Middle East and for good reason,
3) Yes but were they slowing down to have a good look as you were?
6) The police didn't know that.
8) You may have had an amusing moment but for the police, never amusing and always incredibly stressful.
But at the end of the day, they could have just been glaring at you for rubber necking.
The police were under no stress whatsoever at that point. All was peaceful and there was no shouting. If it wasn't for the flags etc. one would have thought it was a social function around the band-stand – a popular place for festivities.
I'm sure some of the cars did slow down for the same reason and would have got similar treatment.
A different story once they started marching and chanting of course, and when they came close to the Naval Base entrance, one would expect the police to be very much on the alert to any possible infringements. As far as I know there were none.
Accept it was nothing more than a slightly amusing interlude in response to TM’s comment re- another protest march. You were not there. I was.
You're not going to get in control of gang crime with a Beta.
Coster's term finishes in April 2025. That’s his maximum.
To survive even to April Coster has to get gun crime and gang crime trending down fast.
Unfortunately Coster is on record saying gun crime will stay high for years.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/494168/escalated-gun-crime-expected-to-remain-a-problem-for-years-police
Put a fork in him – he's done.
"That’s his maximum."
Are you sure about that? The maximum term a Commissioner can be appointed for is five years but, unless they have changed the laws in the last few years there is nothing to stop them being appointed for a second term.
Coster's predecessor, Mike Bush was first appointed to a term that ran for 3 years from April 2014 until 2017. He was then reappointed for a second term of three years that finished in April 2020. He served for 6 years.
As far as I know there is no reason to prevent Coster being offered another, or even several more, term(s).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Bush
Yes, he won't survive more than a term.
Don't worry about the theory.
On that I agree with you. I thought you were talking about whether it could be done, not whether it would be done.
If one looks at the history on would say, the intent of a 5 year term is to allow a longer term than 3 years. Only some ever got a second term of 3 years, when it was 3 years. 5 years is one of the longer ones on record.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commissioner_of_Police_(New_Zealand)
"Mitchell has reset the relationship with Coster but there are still a Cabinet minister or two who refer to him as "Cuddles Coster" – an insinuation he's soft on crime………."
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/police-minister-mark-mitchell-thinks-commissioner-andrew-coster-has-potential-to-be-good-leader.html
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/508763/minister-of-education-erica-stanford-promises-plan-to-build-more-cost-effective-classrooms
Canceled class rooms now and more bullshit from the nats,
Roofs falling on kids and rain getting in, only in poor people areas I expect.
Incredible. Two months in and we are already at the stage of, 'your children's classrooms are too luxurious'.
Not their children's though I bet,
Want to change aotearoa for good?
Ban private schools and health insurance!
Ha! All that will happen is an increased influx into the 'desirable' areas with 'good' schools – pushing house prices even higher. 'Double Grammar zone' will be even more unaffordable.
And a substantial increase in health tourism.
"Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed." – Einstein
Not unaffordable to all Kiwis, clearly, given your projected "increased influx".
Despite divisive distractions, even the most one-eyed will be hard-pressed to ignore rhe corrosive effects of wealth inequality on societal resilience over the next few years, although adopting a 'head in the sand' strategy might just do it.
Sad really, because when the overshoot chickens come home to roost, money will mean bugger all – still, make hay while the sun shines.
All of which has zip to do with the proposal to make private schools and private healthcare illegal.
Imho, Einsrtein's quote is relevant to the proposal to "ban private schools and health insurance", and also relevant to reactions to that proposal.
"Double Grammar zone" doesn't interest me – patterns of behaviour do
It's Open Mike – if you're not interested, just scroll on by.
You gotta love the naivety of some people.
After a years long investigation, a pimp gets 10 months home d. for exploiting 15 Brazillian women migrants.
The "national manager of immigration investigations, ” hoped the sentence would be a deterrent.
This chap, Michael Sloan, can carry on his parasite ways while still wearing his ankle bracelet.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350174437/kiwi-man-sentenced-role-illegal-international-sex-worker-operation
Edit: I thought, originally, home d. was for crimes that didn’t occur in the home.