I've watched The Working Group's Final Show 2024, with guests including Gerry Brownlee, Moana Maniapoto, Willie Jackson, David Seymour, John Tamihere and others.
They were all asked highlights/low points.
Two comments were made that highlighted a key difference in views.
Maniapoto mentioned "being good ancestors".
Tamihere was asked about the rise of the Maori party scaring centre NZ making it hard for Hipkins to win. His reply was he doesn't care about Hipkins, what they are building is a 'forever movement. 25% of babies born will whakapapa to their Maori descent. When will they build bridges to us as they burnt the existing ones down.'
Contrast that with the tory obsession with debt, tax, surplus, balance sheets and other esoteric fictions. Too narrow a focus on one or two year forecast.
Some good news as to milk prices for 2025 (rising demand in SE Asia) are up to a record $10 (many have been struggling with the high cost of debt and higher feed and fertiliser cost).
Of late, the industry has been in transition – maintaining production with lower herd size and Fonterra moving to focus on higher returns for milk production (sell off of brands) as preparation for the future of farming under our future UNFCCC arrangements.
Trade agreements likely prevent local subsidisation.
I've always felt this is a crock though as the local dairy can buy stuff cheaper from the supermarket than they can directly from the wholesaler. Seems corporate discounts are fine when they want them to be but not OK when they do not.
Looks like Debbie Ngarewra Packer has her heart set on becoming the next finance minister in a left lead coalition government. She may be a little out with her sums.
Debbie Ngarewra Packer would be a far better finance minister than Nicola Willis even if that is a very low bar. Just ask the small businesses in Wellington how the economy is going.
No not fixated on brown women at all. Just on stupid comments.
[Your last (and only) warning was for trolling and making snide comments on the financial ability of a brown woman (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-17-09-2024/#comment-2011313). Here you’ve done it again and labelled it ‘stupid’. Your comments are a waste of space still. See you in 3 months – Incognito]
I am from Miramar, I don't want a second tunnel. The busses are fine because they go through the bus tunnel not the car tunnel.
The problem isn't the tunnel, it's the traffic lights by St Marks School because there are a ton of people trying to go E-W and N-S. It all backs up from there and back through the tunnel into Ruahine Street.
Outside Parliament, Packer stood by the figure, which came from a 1News debate between Act Leader David Seymour and journalist Bernard Hickey, who writes the The Kākā, a popular Substack.
Hickey pointed to the 2023 reports from IRD and Treasury on the effective tax rates paid by ordinary New Zealanders and the wealthiest households.
“The estimate is that the richest 40% of New Zealanders only pay an effective tax rate of 10% because of a lack of that capital gains tax,” Hickey said.
“We could have gotten $200b in extra tax revenues if only there had been a fair tax system which meant that capital gains were taxed at the same rate as every other type of income,” he said.
Hickey told the Herald that the figure had been a “broad estimate of the backward looking capital gains from 2017 at that point when there could have been a CGT to 2023″.
“If there had been a CGT and if those capital gains had happened, applying the top tax rates or 33% and 39% then you would have had that number,” he said.
He went on to add
if there had been a CGT, there probably would have been less capital gain because behaviour would have changed.
And that such periods (of high CG) are not that common
“To assume you would have that number of capital gains every year in a straight line is ambitious to unlikely,” he said.
The Post has an opinion article from Craig Rennie, NZCTU economist, on Treasury reframing the government books to look better than under the current system. Paywalled, would love it if someone could give an archived link, I'm reading and quoting from the library paper copy in front of me.
" We were supposed to go from deficit to surplus in 2028. Chris Bishop said the government is 'not going to be a slave to surplus'…The government books are even more in the red than forecast -by $669 mi inside just 3 months…[so the deficit for the year may be] nearly $3 bi worse than expected. A larger Operating Balance before Gains and Losses translates into…more borrowing or bigger cuts to government spending."
Rennie points out the obvious downwards financial spiral of more borrowing, less government spending, growing unemployment and loss in consumer confidence, which lead to lower tax intake.
Fascinating. One year on from tearing up a really good deal on future proofing the Cook Straight link, it's clear Willis has zero idea what to do. She has dithered for a year and now put this out for consultation, a new entity set up now conveniently removed from herself.
It's worth noting she made the decision to cancel IRex with no consultation and to replace it she now wants consultation.
All the while undermining Kiwirail by creating huge uncertainty and creating a new ministry with which to stop Kiwirail doing anything:
Willis criticised Kiwi Rail for hiring outsiders when they were the experts, then hired consultants basically to agree that they can delay replacement with an intensive (costly) focus on maintenance (and toleration for fewer sailings in future years).
There is nothing new here, just removing Kiwi Rail from the decision-making process. Like the ports it is to be managed into serving the new company (obviously set up to operate the ferries).
It reminds one of the late 1970's when NZPO had to end its development plans to run its own courier post and instead provide the base service to private companies to profit from.
New Zealand Couriers was bought by Freightways Group in 1977 just before this development. Freightways continued to buy up its competition during the 1980s, and its dominance made it difficult for new players to get established after road transport was deregulated in 1982–83
From around 1980 courier services were allowed to compete with the government-owned Post Office.
Not exactly, coz the PO was not allowed to operate a courier service.
New Zealand Post joined the courier market in August 1989 as CourierPost, and later introduced ‘track and trace’ technology.
They probably tried desperately to find some 2nd hand ferries over the last year… now that ship has sailed (as predicted by experts), it's all back to square one (minus at least 500 million NZD).
Also interesting to hear it will be a lot cheaper than the old plan, without actually having done anything yet (no new ship contracts negotiated, probably not much planning on the new new terminals either).
Are they getting smaller boats? Are they rail enabled?
What has been taken from the previously planned terminals to make them significantly cheaper (on paper)?
If the boats / terminals are smaller, does it mean the Coalition expect less economical growth? To be fair, they're working hard on that. Or is there going to be an infrastructure bottleneck leading to higher transport prices? How future-proof is the new solution going to be?
No wonder they don't want to provide any specific information. They look like complete muppets since the announcement last year and clearly continue to do so. I'm a bit surprised Winston sticks his neck out for this shit-show, maybe they called his new role the "Transport-Tsar" (see Yes, Minister).
That was interesting. Immediately after Question Time Kieran and Chris Hipkins questioned the Speaker about his ruling on the Ammendment made by the Govt re the Public/Private position in relation to the Fast Track Bill.
Hipkins has very impressive grasp of the issue and marvellous fluency. Top man!https://videos.parliament.nz/ from 14:54
Bishop put his foot in it by saying "the Speakers ruling was what what the Government wanted."
'intervention to ensure that the [NZ] government does not diminish the Crown's honour. Please remind them to respect their responsibility to act as an honourable partner on your behalf. We would welcome an opportunity to have regular contact with you or your office to build a closer relationship and realise the Tiriti “promise of two peoples to take the best possible care of each other" '.
Interesting that they chose international media, The Guardian, to break this news.
Great Newsroom interview with Robb Carr on the Climate Change Commission in his term there as chair, and in NZ's carbon targets in the future.
Quoting Carr: “The commission has consistently said, to get this transition to work at the pace and scale we believe it can and should for all of our benefit, yes you need to price emissions and you need to engage with communities and you need to figure out the enablers and barriers and address them.”
He rips into fossil-fuel industry misinformation, says the time for tree-planting is over, and says agriculture already has tools to reduce carbon footprint, but their uptake varies across farms. And says the Commission created models and data from the bottom up to model the economic and environmental impacts of sustainable energy.
“I’m just absolutely convinced now that, particularly in the energy sector, for a small island nation to have the possibility of being energy independent in my lifetime… Those technologies weren’t there even 10 years ago at an affordable price."
Incoming news: Federated Farmer's wants the Commerce Commission to act because BNZ won't finance fossil fuel gas station businesses after 2030. Coalition members of the government Finance and Expenditure Committee are upset by BNZ's actions. Chloe schools the government members:
"Chloe Swarbrick, … a committee member, said the National and Act party members were essentially arguing against free market capitalism.
BNZ’s decision not to lend to fossil fuel businesses is a commercial decision made by a private company in response to the realities of climate change and existing emissions reduction policies."
This calls for an immediate nationalisation of BNZ (what’s in a name anyway?) to force it to fund their pet projects, which is essentially what they’ve been doing all over the place – the recent CoC-up with the Marsden Fund is a case in point.
I can see some very messy situations coming up where banks remove funding / sell up sheep farmers. It's very much a sector that's not viable any more and the recent restrictions on forestry conversion will have reduced a lot of farmer's equity, which makes for difficult conversations with the bank manager.
The Farmers Union are getting exercised about this because they can see banks becoming reluctant to lend to some farming sectors because of their viability and sustainability.
We've had State intervention in rural (and house mortgage) lending before, although generally in a development situation. Won't stop sunset industries begging the government (actually taxpayers) to save their sorry arses (and lifestyles)
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Progressing a holistic strategy to unlock the potential of New Zealand’s geothermal resources, possibly in applications beyond energy generation, is at the centre of discussions with mana whenua at a hui in Rotorua today, Resources and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is in the early stages ...
New annual data has exposed the staggering cost of delays previously hidden in the building consent system, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I directed Building Consent Authorities to begin providing quarterly data last year to improve transparency, following repeated complaints from tradespeople waiting far longer than the statutory ...
Increases in water charges for Auckland consumers this year will be halved under the Watercare Charter which has now been passed into law, Local Government Minister Simon Watts and Auckland Minister Simeon Brown say. The charter is part of the financial arrangement for Watercare developed last year by Auckland Council ...
There is wide public support for the Government’s work to strengthen New Zealand’s biosecurity protections, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard. “The Ministry for Primary Industries recently completed public consultation on proposed amendments to the Biosecurity Act and the submissions show that people understand the importance of having a strong biosecurity ...
A new independent review function will enable individuals and organisations to seek an expert independent review of specified civil aviation regulatory decisions made by, or on behalf of, the Director of Civil Aviation, Acting Transport Minister James Meager has announced today. “Today we are making it easier and more affordable ...
The Government will invest in an enhanced overnight urgent care service for the Napier community as part of our focus on ensuring access to timely, quality healthcare, Health Minister Simeon Brown has today confirmed. “I am delighted that a solution has been found to ensure Napier residents will continue to ...
Health Minister Simeon Brown and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey attended a sod turning today to officially mark the start of construction on a new mental health facility at Hillmorton Campus. “This represents a significant step in modernising mental health services in Canterbury,” Mr Brown says. “Improving health infrastructure is ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has welcomed confirmation the economy has turned the corner. Stats NZ reported today that gross domestic product grew 0.7 per cent in the three months to December following falls in the June and September quarters. “We know many families and businesses are still suffering the after-effects ...
The sealing of a 12-kilometre stretch of State Highway 43 (SH43) through the Tangarakau Gorge – one of the last remaining sections of unsealed state highway in the country – has been completed this week as part of a wider programme of work aimed at improving the safety and resilience ...
A scary look inside the inboxes of two recent politicians. Damon has worked as a social media content creator for the Green Party and helps create content for Wellington mayor Tory Whanau. This piece is written in his own capacity as a private citizen. Opinions do not represent the Wellington ...
In a selection of anonymous quotes, a group of female parliamentarians from across the political spectrum give an insight into what they deal with. A study published today has called for urgent action in response to harassment of female MPs in New Zealand. The researchers from the department of psychological ...
A recent High Court ruling has raised alarm bells about the long-term integrity of Treaty settlements – and concern over how a little-known clause in the Fisheries Act could cost iwi millions. In 1992, the Crown and Māori reached what was meant to be a “full and final” settlement over ...
Analysis: Researching my book The Science of the Māori Lunar Calendar has deepened my appreciation of Mātauranga Māori and its importance to the lives of New Zealanders past and present. Not long ago, Māori knowledge was largely disregarded by the scientific community and treated as little more than myth and ...
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I've watched The Working Group's Final Show 2024, with guests including Gerry Brownlee, Moana Maniapoto, Willie Jackson, David Seymour, John Tamihere and others.
They were all asked highlights/low points.
Two comments were made that highlighted a key difference in views.
Maniapoto mentioned "being good ancestors".
Tamihere was asked about the rise of the Maori party scaring centre NZ making it hard for Hipkins to win. His reply was he doesn't care about Hipkins, what they are building is a 'forever movement. 25% of babies born will whakapapa to their Maori descent. When will they build bridges to us as they burnt the existing ones down.'
Contrast that with the tory obsession with debt, tax, surplus, balance sheets and other esoteric fictions. Too narrow a focus on one or two year forecast.
Unemployment does more harm than inflation … so managing down inflation is an art, one New Zealand is bad at.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/partner/11-07-2023/how-happiness-should-and-does-influence-our-money-decisions
Some good news as to milk prices for 2025 (rising demand in SE Asia) are up to a record $10 (many have been struggling with the high cost of debt and higher feed and fertiliser cost).
Of late, the industry has been in transition – maintaining production with lower herd size and Fonterra moving to focus on higher returns for milk production (sell off of brands) as preparation for the future of farming under our future UNFCCC arrangements.
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-and-commentary/rangitaki-blog/feu-special-topic-outlook-dairy-exports
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/536296/the-sector-still-adding-jobs-and-paying-an-average-70k
Good news for whom? Not the general NZ public for which dairy has become a luxury item. There's always an excuse to sting us with global rates.
One wonders why no one has determined on supply to the local market at a lower price than the 95% exported.
They could do half rate here and it would have little impact on the total return.
But export revenues and the jobs etc.
Trade agreements likely prevent local subsidisation.
I've always felt this is a crock though as the local dairy can buy stuff cheaper from the supermarket than they can directly from the wholesaler. Seems corporate discounts are fine when they want them to be but not OK when they do not.
The science led pathways to lower emission farming.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/535961/country-life-what-could-be-in-the-farm-toolkit-for-curbing-methane-emissions
It's a far smaller company, diminished over a decade.
I sure hope – for NZ's sake – this is the upturn point.
The comparison to Kerry's in Ireland is still important.
They have at least moved towards A2 milk positioning for the Asian market.
Ferries GEEz
900$M now
And no rail facility.
Canceled 500$M + cost of canceling
BIZARRE.
Plus huge costs for entirely necessary refurbishment of the port facilities, and almost certainly some work to accommodate the new expensive ferries.
But the Nats are ignoring the on-land costs.
Looks like Debbie Ngarewra Packer has her heart set on becoming the next finance minister in a left lead coalition government. She may be a little out with her sums.
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer stands by $200b CGT, Nicola Willis calls it ‘Soviet’ – NZ Herald
Still fixated on brown women, I see.
Debbie Ngarewra Packer would be a far better finance minister than Nicola Willis even if that is a very low bar. Just ask the small businesses in Wellington how the economy is going.
No not fixated on brown women at all. Just on stupid comments.
[Your last (and only) warning was for trolling and making snide comments on the financial ability of a brown woman (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-17-09-2024/#comment-2011313). Here you’ve done it again and labelled it ‘stupid’. Your comments are a waste of space still. See you in 3 months – Incognito]
Did someone say "stupid?"
I am from Miramar, I don't want a second tunnel. The busses are fine because they go through the bus tunnel not the car tunnel.
The problem isn't the tunnel, it's the traffic lights by St Marks School because there are a ton of people trying to go E-W and N-S. It all backs up from there and back through the tunnel into Ruahine Street.
Great post Tui.
Mod note
What's on her CV that is evidence of qualifications to run finance for a country?
Try reading the article properly.
Then tell it to the source.
He went on to add
And that such periods (of high CG) are not that common
Jimmy the shill.
Yes, investment into productive industries would have been far greater.
But when we have a PM who recently made around $900,000 tax free by selling property, the example is not lost on all the speculators.
As someone once said, the NZ economy is real estate, with other bits tacked on.
Oops, meant to be a reply to SPC at 5.2
5 or more minutes to delete and link to 5.
Profile Us. A bit of everything.
Over-skilled and over-qualified for our jobs, and also underpaid.
Adult literacy and numeracy and problem solving in decline.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/536321/nz-tumbles-in-international-adult-literacy-maths-rankings
The Post has an opinion article from Craig Rennie, NZCTU economist, on Treasury reframing the government books to look better than under the current system. Paywalled, would love it if someone could give an archived link, I'm reading and quoting from the library paper copy in front of me.
" We were supposed to go from deficit to surplus in 2028. Chris Bishop said the government is 'not going to be a slave to surplus'…The government books are even more in the red than forecast -by $669 mi inside just 3 months…[so the deficit for the year may be] nearly $3 bi worse than expected. A larger Operating Balance before Gains and Losses translates into…more borrowing or bigger cuts to government spending."
Rennie points out the obvious downwards financial spiral of more borrowing, less government spending, growing unemployment and loss in consumer confidence, which lead to lower tax intake.
Is this the one?
https://www.thepost.co.nz/business/360515283/decoding-language-government-books
https://archive.ph/iWgAb
Does archive display ….
Yes, thanks a million, Belladonna. I'll look there next time.
National Party loft balloon holder DPF
suggests an amendment to amend the Bill of Rights Act
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2024/12/treaty_issues_poll_shows_the_way_forward.html
I am not sure if he is serious.
https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1990/0109/latest/DLM224792.html
Fascinating. One year on from tearing up a really good deal on future proofing the Cook Straight link, it's clear Willis has zero idea what to do. She has dithered for a year and now put this out for consultation, a new entity set up now conveniently removed from herself.
It's worth noting she made the decision to cancel IRex with no consultation and to replace it she now wants consultation.
All the while undermining Kiwirail by creating huge uncertainty and creating a new ministry with which to stop Kiwirail doing anything:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/536339/watch-live-government-won-t-reveal-cost-of-new-cook-strait-ferry-plan
Ferries? So only that they plan to buy 2 new ferries some day but don't know how much or who will build them.
So apart from forming a new committee to explore things, and maybe consult a bit and giving a new job to Winston Peters to lead things,
we are no further ahead that we were yesterday or last month or a year ago.
Well the very best way to show how brilliant you are at all things economic, is to not give any information on, well , anything really.
Willis criticised Kiwi Rail for hiring outsiders when they were the experts, then hired consultants basically to agree that they can delay replacement with an intensive (costly) focus on maintenance (and toleration for fewer sailings in future years).
There is nothing new here, just removing Kiwi Rail from the decision-making process. Like the ports it is to be managed into serving the new company (obviously set up to operate the ferries).
It reminds one of the late 1970's when NZPO had to end its development plans to run its own courier post and instead provide the base service to private companies to profit from.
Not exactly, coz the PO was not allowed to operate a courier service.
https://teara.govt.nz/en/mail-and-couriers/page-5
Now Freightways and NZPO have 80% of the market.
Here it seems there will be a second ferry operator – one that could be sold off by the government.
They probably tried desperately to find some 2nd hand ferries over the last year… now that ship has sailed (as predicted by experts), it's all back to square one (minus at least 500 million NZD).
Also interesting to hear it will be a lot cheaper than the old plan, without actually having done anything yet (no new ship contracts negotiated, probably not much planning on the new new terminals either).
Are they getting smaller boats? Are they rail enabled?
What has been taken from the previously planned terminals to make them significantly cheaper (on paper)?
If the boats / terminals are smaller, does it mean the Coalition expect less economical growth? To be fair, they're working hard on that. Or is there going to be an infrastructure bottleneck leading to higher transport prices? How future-proof is the new solution going to be?
No wonder they don't want to provide any specific information. They look like complete muppets since the announcement last year and clearly continue to do so. I'm a bit surprised Winston sticks his neck out for this shit-show, maybe they called his new role the "Transport-Tsar" (see Yes, Minister).
They say rail freight will be continued, but not how.
They say Picton Port and Wellington Port will have to contribute, but there's no commitment or commentary from them. It's a necessary share.
I think it's good it will be a standalone company. It will open private investment potential up.
Willis has made such a dreadful mess of this and there's still a high chance of a massive accident. Poor.
The private sector has till March to indicate an interest as to being involved as an operator … but running what shipping …. and what port facilities?
Leggat seems to be hinting at a private sector involvement in port development (while the existing ferries continue to operate as now).
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/536291/advocates-divided-as-government-unveils-cook-strait-ferry-plan
The whole thing is a CoC con job.
I will say more about this later.
A media release with no concrete numbers or pathway to purchase. "Let's just put it off for 6 years".
Density Church sponsors another disgusting movement…
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/536337/pro-palestinian-and-pro-israeli-protesters-converge-on-parliament-s-lawn
Netanyahu will be in jail soon.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/10/netanyahu-arrives-in-court-for-corruption-trial
Those are penny ante charges. He needs to be in front of a Nuremberg-style tribunal, along with his henchmen.
True.
That was interesting. Immediately after Question Time Kieran and Chris Hipkins questioned the Speaker about his ruling on the Ammendment made by the Govt re the Public/Private position in relation to the Fast Track Bill.
Hipkins has very impressive grasp of the issue and marvellous fluency. Top man!https://videos.parliament.nz/ from 14:54
Bishop put his foot in it by saying "the Speakers ruling was what what the Government wanted."
Maori representing more than 80 iwi in the National Iwi Chairs' Forum have sent a letter to Chas III, asking for
'intervention to ensure that the [NZ] government does not diminish the Crown's honour. Please remind them to respect their responsibility to act as an honourable partner on your behalf. We would welcome an opportunity to have regular contact with you or your office to build a closer relationship and realise the Tiriti “promise of two peoples to take the best possible care of each other" '.
Interesting that they chose international media, The Guardian, to break this news.
Great Newsroom interview with Robb Carr on the Climate Change Commission in his term there as chair, and in NZ's carbon targets in the future.
Quoting Carr: “The commission has consistently said, to get this transition to work at the pace and scale we believe it can and should for all of our benefit, yes you need to price emissions and you need to engage with communities and you need to figure out the enablers and barriers and address them.”
He rips into fossil-fuel industry misinformation, says the time for tree-planting is over, and says agriculture already has tools to reduce carbon footprint, but their uptake varies across farms. And says the Commission created models and data from the bottom up to model the economic and environmental impacts of sustainable energy.
“I’m just absolutely convinced now that, particularly in the energy sector, for a small island nation to have the possibility of being energy independent in my lifetime… Those technologies weren’t there even 10 years ago at an affordable price."
Incoming news: Federated Farmer's wants the Commerce Commission to act because BNZ won't finance fossil fuel gas station businesses after 2030. Coalition members of the government Finance and Expenditure Committee are upset by BNZ's actions. Chloe schools the government members:
"Chloe Swarbrick, … a committee member, said the National and Act party members were essentially arguing against free market capitalism.
BNZ’s decision not to lend to fossil fuel businesses is a commercial decision made by a private company in response to the realities of climate change and existing emissions reduction policies."
Ouch.
This calls for an immediate nationalisation of BNZ (what’s in a name anyway?) to force it to fund their pet projects, which is essentially what they’ve been doing all over the place – the recent CoC-up with the Marsden Fund is a case in point.
I think we have found the real reason why the CoC is upgrading Kiwibank.
The government wants it to be able to handle a lot of rural accounts.
I can see some very messy situations coming up where banks remove funding / sell up sheep farmers. It's very much a sector that's not viable any more and the recent restrictions on forestry conversion will have reduced a lot of farmer's equity, which makes for difficult conversations with the bank manager.
The Farmers Union are getting exercised about this because they can see banks becoming reluctant to lend to some farming sectors because of their viability and sustainability.
We've had State intervention in rural (and house mortgage) lending before, although generally in a development situation. Won't stop sunset industries begging the government (actually taxpayers) to save their sorry arses (and lifestyles)