Open mike 12/09/2023
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The gift that keeps giving: David Seymour has now opened a split in the coalition over the future of National’s promise to build a new medical school. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / TheKakaKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...7 hours ago - Weekly Roundup 22-November-2024
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The speech yesterday by Treasury’s Chief Economic Advisor warning that the books are in worse shape than forecasted looks like it’s part of a softening-up process for either more cuts or a longer wait to get back into surplus. The speech was a highly unusual public preview of Treasury’s Half-Yearly ...11 hours ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
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The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...1 day ago - ‘These budget cuts are counter-productive and make no sense’
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The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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This is the latest Newshub Reid poll released yesterday:
I'm not sure who writes the RNZ headlines but Labour and the Greens have been "left in the dust" according to their news reports this morning.
In fact Lab/Gr/TPM 42.2% versus Nat/ACT 51.0% is nowhere near as bad as described by RNZ.
Of interest is Hipkins going UP 6.6% in the preferred PM stakes and Seymour dropping 3.9%.
Also this is the fourth poll I have seen where the Greens have beaten ACT, who seem to be in freefall.
This poll doesn't take into account Luxon's dire performance when interviewed on Sunday by Jack Tame nor Seymour's loony "we will not give National supply" utterances yesterday.
The rumour is that the 20% of people who have not yet made up their mind mostly voted Labour last time. All is not lost.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/497780/labour-drops-5-point-5-points-in-latest-newshub-reid-research-poll
RNZ have their numbers wrong. It’s Luxon who is up 6.6% not Hipkins
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-heartbreak-for-chris-hipkins-as-christopher-luxon-climbs-to-match-him-on-preferred-pm-ranking.html
Ah ok…thanks Jack. At least Hipkins has stayed level with Luxon.
There will be some sore heads on October 15 if the dirty Natzos and filthy Act are able to assume office due to revenge voting (“what have I done”….). Of course that will be just part of the story, renter transience, homelessness and the degradation of NZ Post into basically a courier service, alienation, low profile of non published roll, new gen and Māori roll turnout, will all play their part. As will have Labour’s timidity on a wealth tax recommended by Robbo and David Parker following a clear lead from IRD.
It is a strange time indeed when undecideds may decide the fate of the rest of us. NActFirst have laid it out rather clearly what will be lost for the majority and how Capital and Finance Capital will benefit if NZ Labour and Green’s multiple incremental reforms are trashed by would be vandals Seymour and Baldrick.
VI Lenin posited that Parliamentary elections are an exam on the level of working class political understanding. But I guess NZ has such a high quotient of petit bourgeoisie, self employed, and aspirationals–as many decades of elections have demonstrated, that a class analysis makes little odds to the “me me me’s”.
I’ll still be campaigning for a Labour/Green/Te Pāti Māori Govt. in various ways and it is definitely not over yet.
Yea I cannot fathom the reasoning behind that ! Its such a small minded action. I know I personally will be worse off, if NActFirst get their claws on NZ. But I absolutely think of all the many thousands of others…like me..or even worse off.
You are so on to it…
Networks, online, local markets and media channels, and signs on our corner site with reasonable vehicle movement numbers.
2017 it was Andrew Little then signs changed to Jacinda, 2020 Jacinda, partner worked for an NZLP affiliated union so I agreed to that signage. 2023 it is TPM and Green as she has retired and supports CGT and Wealth Tax!
We are all Left. And Solidarity. We can do it.
VUW law prof; Rimmer's in front of his skis.
Geoff McLay
@GeoffMcLay1
Hmm as @drdeanknight is away does it fall to me to point that under our constitutional system supply is confidence? If you can’t guarantee you can pay to govern you can’t govern!
https://twitter.com/GeoffMcLay1/status/1701045832806728152
Jenner Lynch Newshub Editor
So that gives me pause.
They(the press) say Talbot Mills is favourable to the Left.
I say this Newshub Reid Mills Poll is an outlier for the Right, cementing in the Newshub theme of the Right are winners.
Keep hopeful Labour as we are fighting for the undecided 20%.
So far they are not convinced by Lux and Willis.
Labour need to present our cheerful hardworking crew and consider other alignments with the Greens and Te Maori Party which show solidarity of purpose.
Don't believe all the presented hype, stand tall for our beliefs.
Sorry Mods, I added the 20% and now I have two comments , the second is the actual finished one.
Things are bad when I'm agreeing with matthew hooten on luxon.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/09/12/luxon-caught-out-in-back-room-cut-election-lies/
ouch
Well Mathew Hooton may not be wrong, but what is his motive for this knifing one may wonder?
First time I heard Luxury Luxon on RNZ before he officially became leader, he was asked a welfare related question regarding solo parents and benefit abatement rates and gave a reasonable but totally non National response–he likely got a good slapping when he got back to the office.
Why has it taken Hoots so long? It was pretty obvious to me about 30 seconds after I first heard Luxon open his mouth around 2 years ago. And I do imagine that someone is paying Hooton well for making so many enemies. (And what Weka said at 4.2.1)
Ultimately it doesn't matter much what motivates Hooton, he's always been in love with the sound of his own voice. But elections are not about voting for commentators to govern us.
What does matter is the character and competence of the man who wants to be PM. On that score Matthew's assessment is sadly accurate. Luxon is emptiness personified: "Let me be clear, what I'm saying to you is … (nothing)".
I've asked since he became leader: what is it we are supposed to respect? The answer is always the same: "But Labour bad, but Labour bad!". Which speaks volumes.
Nobody – not even fervent Nats – can ever come up with anything else in his favour. Open invitation for anyone to do so here – without talking about his opponents, or polls, or any other non-answer – just him.
Expect tumbleweed.
Roll him now or roll him soon.
There is zero chance that he would last a term as PM. National are driven by one thing: get re-elected. So he's a goner, win or lose.
If he does somehow manage to negotiate a deal with ACT and possibly NZF and become PM he won’t handle the pressure of running Government and actually deal with the many issues that will need his attention. He’ll be a complete shambles as PM and Minister.
He’ll want to add it to his CV and add I-used-to-run-a-countrty, next to I-used-to-run-an-airline. He’s no different from John Key in this respect.
I think he’ll be rolled by Christmas, one way or another.
Blimey that was an interesting read. Hooton thinks Luxon is a complete idiot.
let's not forget that Hooton's job is to garner votes in the interests of the ruling classes. In this case, my guess is they want more votes going to ACT than Nat.
he's also running the perennial bullshit lines about the Greens and Nat.
True Hooton always has a hidden agenda when he says anything. His comments on Jacinda in the article are, frankly, insulting.
Yep, Mathew is a jumped up chancer, always with a “game changer” plan. Jacinda is way beyond what he ascribes to her.
Matthew 'team muller' Hooten folks. Worth remembering as he used his soapbox very effectively for that.
Didn’t work out for him and is now back doing what he does best.
Always worth recalling… 50th anniversary of Allende coup.
https://jacobin.com/2023/09/salvador-allende-chile-coup-fiftieth-anniversary-politics-socialism-anti-imperialism-legacy-memory?mc_cid=aa0621c01d&mc_eid=5a2883fd7c
There was ultimately an NZ connection too, several hundred Chilean exiles made their way to NZ as the 70s ran on, some starting printing businesses, restaurants and musical groups. I had the fortune through political networks to meet some of them and assist in various ways. The Chilean exiles always showed up when torture ship Esmeralda came to these shores. A colleague of mine was actually in Santiago for academic reasons during the coup. And…the Natzos union busting 1991 Employment Contracts Act was based in part on Chilean Labour law from Pinochet’s first Labor Secretary–José Piñera.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/José_Piñera
Leftists all had their own take on what should have and could have happened re the attack on the Presidential Palace and the long right wing destabilisation campaign. But none the less it was US Imperialism’s effort to warn the rest of Latin America not to go socialist.
We have no idea of suffering endured by Chileans like Jorge.
Jorge Sandoval MNZM
@SandovalJorge
Today 11 September, mark 50 years of the military coup in Chile. A minute for me to honor the memory of my friends killed during the tortures we suffered. Neither forgive nor forget, no to impunity.
https://twitter.com/SandovalJorge/status/1700996502129348758
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/24-10-2018/kiwi-legend-the-chilean-refugee-who-became-a-new-zealand-cycling-star
Yes. The people I met had to flee for their very lives. The untold story perhaps is the concentration and torture camps in remote locations from Patagonia to more central Chile–horrific. That is why Pinochet had to be pursued to the end.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_abuses_in_Chile_under_Augusto_Pinochet
I can vividly recall touring the Esmeralda with my grandfather, a former boy seaman aboard the TS Amokura, and being mightily impressed with the height of the masts, the rigging, the smell, the noises, and pretty much everything else aboard.
I shudder when I think about what went on aboard during Pinochet's years.
The new austerity normal …unless we broaden our revenue streams.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/election-2023-government-to-open-its-books-cameron-bagrie-warns-deficits-could-become-new-normal.html
Is that the same Cameron Bagrie I remember arguing for asset sales?
Well what d'ya know? The economy is better than expected. National must be spewing!
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/497824/election-2023-pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-release-government-books-in-better-shape-than-expected
So NZ no longer in recession (which it never was really) with growth of 1.3% to year end June 2024.
Fitch, Standard and Poor's and Moody's still love us.
It's all a pretty good effort given the massive cost of Covid and the cyclones that hit Auckland and the East Cape and Hawke's Bay.
(The current account deficit, at 6.6% of GDP, still looks a bit rough though.)
“National must be spewing”
They wheeled out the same attack cliches they would have used whatever the PREFU said: i.e., that Grant Robertson would go down as the worst Finance Minister ever, that it was economic mismanagement on a scale never seen before, that Robertson had been spraying the money hose around.
No-one asked Luxon on the basis of what historical data had he made that characterisation of Robertson. No-one (save Tame last Sunday) would have stopped him babbling out his usual evasions in response to that question, no-one would have asked him to withdraw his assertion as he had no data, etc. Lying and catastrophising with impunity.
Far right loser Kyle Chapman charged with the unlawful possession of firearms and ammunition.
those who know about….or dont..this is all a real worry. (Norinco NHM 90 kinda similar to AK 47 ? ! )
I was also boggled, seeing this name…connectivity?
The civil version of the Chinese AK knockoff.
Well…yes. A prohibited firearm. And IMO Kyle Chapman not really the kind of person to be in possession of that and ammo for same…..
I realize that trivial matters like health are not as important as opinion polls [/sarc], but in Luxon's PREFU press conference just now (available soon as links in usual media) he was repeatedly asked about Nationals' Big Lie (my description, not the reporters').
He's been coached to repeat the line "we will spend more on health". If you've seen/heard any Luxon interviews in recent days, you've probably heard it.
At the press conference several journalists, who know a con when they hear one, asked the obvious follow-up question: is that more in real terms? (allowing for inflation, population growth etc. ).
Luxon did what he always does: repeated his prepared script ("what I'm saying to you …") and didn't answer.
Cuts. If you vote National you vote for cuts in health services. It could not be any clearer if Luxon was wearing a T-shirt with the message on it.
Lying liar lies.
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https://archive.li/https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-christopher-luxon-and-the-truth-about-schools/VP7VRZL2RJFATJNESSP575AZCY/