Open mike 12/12/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, December 12th, 2024 - 20 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

20 comments on “Open mike 12/12/2024 ”

  1. bwaghorn 1
    12 December 2024 at 6:14 am

    https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/131205/federated-farmers-asks-commerce-commission-investigate-bank-cartel-climate-goals-bnz

    The bank makes a commercial decision and the fed farmers (odd they are in this fight) and act and the nats cry wolf.

    Reply
    • Graeme 1.1
      12 December 2024 at 8:42 am

      Farmer's union are all over this because they are concerned farming, or some sectors, might go the same way on viability or sustainability grounds.

      And maybe quite soon thanks to Government and FF actions.

      The restrictions on forestry conversions will have reduced some sheep & beef properties land value by removing potential buyers from the market. Also reduced is the land owner's equity which quickly leads to interesting discussions with the bank.

      In this case accusations of cartel behaviour could be laid at Federated Farmers, they pushed for market restrictions.

      Reply
      • Ad 1.1.1
        12 December 2024 at 9:11 am

        Would be great if we had specific cartel legislation. I suspect the government will gut the Commerce Commission in its review getting underway.

        Reply
      • lprent 1.1.2
        12 December 2024 at 11:59 am

        The basic problem is that a lot of farming isn't exactly profitable, and definitely not that profitable based on the level of investment capital.

        Ummm where did I put that, the FF survey of farmers from July 2024 says it pretty explicitly

        • Farm profitability (current): Overall, 33% of farmers are making a loss, with only 27% reporting a profit and 39% breaking even. The net score for perceptions of profitability is -7%, a significant decline from +61% in January 2022.
        • Farm profitability (expectations): A net 10% of respondents expect their profitability to decline over the next 12 months, an 11-point improvement from January 2024 when a net 21% expected it to decline.

        The PDF gets very interesting (get it on the link above) when you read the detail. debt, interest and banks lead the concerns followed by farmgate and commodity prices. Compliance and regulatory costs are there and the remainder are about costs.

        This isn't exactly news. The effect for the country is that farming is a low profitability industry even at the farm gate, and not much better further through the supply chain in NZ. This has been reflected in the extremely low amount of tax on profits paid by farmers, the lack of returns from processors, and the limited returns on invested capital starting about 2014/2015.

        Or just look at Fonterra returns.

        Or the increasing prevalence of wilder weather and the implications for our current farming practices.

        Or just the massive world demographic shift that is happening as the rapidly decreasing fertility since the 1960s starts slowing population growth – and teh implication of new demands for food commodities.

        All of those point toward a future where the headlong growth in food production is not required, and may be harder to get anyway.

        See chart Figure 3.2 Net predictions of all farm profitability (July 2009-July 2024).

        Also the long term expectations of future debt. The banks have clearly been constraining their exposure, essentially to just maintaining current debt levels and not financing growth.

        Figure 6.1 Net predictions of future farm debt: all farms (July 2009 – July 2024)

        Banks have an obligation to manage investor funds to return a profit, and they have a obligation to not allow their customers to get into positions of debt that they cannot get out of.

        My guess is that the Net Zero thing is mostly PR crap from FF. Good for getting out those useless fools from Groundswell who want the world to stop changing.

        The actual issue is that banks are reducing their risk profile in the farming sector in response to overall changes in farming and their markets. It is what banks are meant to do if they are lending responsibly.

        That means that they are lending where the reals profits are. Currently taking some operationally expensive farming land out of production, and putting it into operationally cheaper trees.

        Reply
        • Graeme 1.1.2.1
          12 December 2024 at 12:13 pm

          Yep, some sectors, sheep, have the viability of a video store. The only equity they have is the land, contingent on finding someone who’ll pay more than the incumbent has borrowed.

          But the farmers don’t want forestry…. Ooops

          Reply
        • Graeme 1.1.2.2
          12 December 2024 at 12:17 pm

          Yep, some sectors, sheep, have the viability of a video store. The only equity they have is the land, contingent on finding someone who’ll pay more than the incumbent has borrowed.

          But the farmers don’t want forestry…. Ooops

          Reply
  2. SPC 2
    12 December 2024 at 6:22 am

    One notes the PM in the House yesterday returned to his favourite put down of his political opponent.

    This is the accusation that a defeated politician is at the scene of an arson.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/christopher-luxon-compares-labour-to-arsonists-in-firery-speech/JNHP4SVLIFBD7LAMZILHVMW5GQ/

    As one civilian under the Beehive C of C occupation regime, and (ultimately deciding to oppose to our signing up to AUKUS Pillar 2), this is a bit like inferring that it might be a crime to be part of the opposition.

    https://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2024/0093/latest/versions.aspx?

    Of course he might just be promoting his government as a fire service posing others as a/the cause of fire (all because they want back into the Beehive matchbox).

    Maybe he wants to be seen as having firemans shoulders, to be seen as a veritable

    Archangel of Masculinity

    It is just a matter of time till he flies too close to the sun and one, if not both of the two dpm wings fall off, into an IREX hot spot of their own making (not far from Wellington airport).

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360518567/why-i-campaigned-return-shirtless-firefighters.

    One just hopes we have only two more years of this Stockholm Syndrome (they now make our Beehive matches there don’t ya know) experience to go.

    Reply
  3. SPC 3
    12 December 2024 at 7:06 am

    In Wellington, there is now a plan to separate ownership of water assets from councils – to enable it to borrow against the assets (separate from councils and their own debt).

    This is possible for urban centres with the ratepayer base population to repay the debt from water charges (water meters cometh).

    At the moment councils own their assets, but have it run by a unitary service.

    Once urban councils have this set up (Auckland model), then will come increasing political pressure to limit rate increases – of a design to the sell off of council assets (such as water).

    This herding by "market" pressure, is how NACT coerce consent to councils losing assets, while posing as the champions of councils ownership of their water assets – Three Water opposition.

    There was a more convoluted path outlined here

    https://thekaka.substack.com/p/finally-govt-turns-to-borrowing-to

    But

    We all just lost at least four years and we still haven’t debated or agreed on the essential issues: our population has grown and is growing way too fast for the infrastructure investment possible with a Government + Council share of GDP at or below GDP. Either we increase taxes outright or create new ‘taxes’ in the form of water and congestion charging, or we act to stop the very fast population growth.

    The settlement reached here and now is effectively a decision to create new ‘taxes’ in the form of water charges at least, although ratepayers still haven’t been told or understood that properly yet. Someone will have to tell them.

    Wellington wants more independence from government, while accepting the new taxation, water charging.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360519076/wellington-explores-three-waters-its-terms-neighbours

    Reply
  4. dv 4
    12 December 2024 at 8:07 am

    Re the ferries

    I can just see companies lining up to bid for the contract.

    OH wait aren't you the guys that canceled the last contract.

    Sorry not interested!!

    Reply
    • Ad 4.1
      12 December 2024 at 9:16 am

      Very, very few NZ tier 1 companies will go near it.

      Reply
      • alwyn 4.1.1
        12 December 2024 at 10:51 am

        Can you tell me what NZ company could possibly build 200+ metre long ferries?

        I can't see that and NZ company, tier 1 or otherwise would be in a position to build a suitable Cook Strait ferry.

        Reply
      • lprent 4.1.2
        12 December 2024 at 12:01 pm

        NZ tier 1 companies

        Companies offshore.

        I can't think of anyone that could build ferries at that size here.

        Reply
        • Ad 4.1.2.1
          12 December 2024 at 12:22 pm

          Oh I was just thinking of the inevitable (if smaller) refits and rebuilds of the wharf infrastructure at both Picton and Wellington. Nothing like having a $billion+ job ripped away from you once you've already won it and mobilised hundreds of skilled workers and massive temporary works structures imported from overseas, marine cranes procured, etc.

          Ain't no one going to trust this government with major procurement now.

          Reply
  5. SPC 5
    12 December 2024 at 8:08 am

    After the election blue sky gained a million newbies a week, now it is 1 million each day.

    1 per second or so (it varies).

    https://bsky-users.theo.io/

    Reply
  6. Drowsy M. Kram 6
    12 December 2024 at 8:45 am

    The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has slammed the Government’s second Emissions Reduction Plan, describing it as ‘95 pages of magical thinking’ and ‘woefully inadequate’ [11 Dec 2024]

    Luxon: "It's a case of slower to go faster"

    Our CoC govt is rushing to go slower to go faster. Bloody 'woke' climate – Vroom Vroom!

    AT wins global road safety award, minister dismisses it as 'woke'
    [11 Dec 2024]
    “There’s lots of woke awards out there, isn’t there?” [ – Simeon Brown]

    Fast-Track projects: Speaker rules no private benefit in list [11 Dec 2024]
    "It's very poor law making. This government has had a lot more urgency than previous governments … I think we're seeing one of the effects of that, which is that you don't necessarily think all this stuff through when you're rushing it and they've got very close here to having a problem where this whole amendment was ruled out.

    This critical ecosystem helped keep climate change in check. Now it’s making things worse [11 Dec 2024]
    Wildfires have turned the Arctic into a net carbon emitter. That’s bad news.

    As what is likely the hottest year on record draws to a close, researchers have found the Arctic region is warming four times faster than the global rate, with adverse consequences for everything from the soil, the ice, the plants that live there and the animals that then eat those plants to the communities that rely on them, and everyone else on Earth.

    “This is yet one more sign, predicted by scientists, of the consequences of inadequately reducing fossil fuel pollution,” NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement.

    Oil and gas lobby asks government to underwrite fossil fuel exploration, minister 'considering options' [2 Dec 2024]

    sad Who's the fossil now?

    Reply
  7. SPC 7
    12 December 2024 at 10:10 am

    This is just sad.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/ncea-is-a-flawed-system-its-time-to-end-this-education-experiment-on-our-teenagers-headmaster/DTITIRSBCRGBXN7YI6C2VVRGEA/

    It reminds one of the AB's after the English tests … who were they, would they amount to anything?

    With impeccable lack of any logic (critical reasoning) whatsoever, a principal no less opines

    All these quirks of the system could almost be tolerated if we were seeing a tangible improvement in the education achievement outcomes of our teenagers.

    Yet the opposite is happening, with failure rates steadily increasing across all year levels.

    It was so bad, the Herald had to add a fact check to it.

    THREE KEY FACTS

    The system (like any other) is a measurement, it is not the cause of a decline in student performance. It seems to be identifying a problem – that is what it is for.

    Result. Not achieved.

    https://archive.li/rpdKn#selection-4897.25-4897.60

    Reply
    • Muttonbird 7.1
      12 December 2024 at 10:47 am

      Not your old school is it, SPC?

      James Bentley is on the board of the Association of Cambridge Schools in New Zealand.

      Cambridge exams are all external, are marked offshore, and cost about $800-$1000 extra to sit on top of other fees.

      Bentley and co are happy to mouth off about NCEA but they value highly NCEA scholarships as a vehicle with which to promote their school and market themselves as an industry leader.

      So much so that academic boys in year 13 at Bentley's school are instructed to only take three A Levels (Cambridge exams) and up to five or six NCEA scholarships.

      The split at St Peter's College between NCEA and Cambridge is about 50/50 so he's thrown half his students under the bus there.

      Reply
      • SPC 7.1.1
        12 December 2024 at 11:15 am

        No, too super hero level of political correctness.

        If I were to make a singular stand in a column, I would opine that NCEA 1 should be an attainment standard only (one I have held for decades).

        Most year 11 students should be able to do it in their first month and then spend the year focused on learning for their intended year 12 NCEA 2 courses.

        The rest, basically having been failed by the school system to that point, become projects for the year. Getting them to that standard (rather than the old style SC fail).

        A little less burden on teachers doing assessment in year 11 would do them some good.

        Otherwise the benefit to more students of the broad range of assessment methods through NCEA is obvious.

        And it is not as if there are no exams … each and every year there are reports about how there has been another, end of year, horrible injustice to the wee things.

        Reply

Leave a Comment

The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.