Open mike 14/10/2023

39 comments on “Open mike 14/10/2023 ”

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1. Dennis Frank 1

   14 October 2023 at 9:55 am

   As I write, the Moon has just entered 10 Libra – takes about 2.5 days to move through a sign of the zodiac. Since 1988 I've been using an astroclock: my term for the software displaying real time in the local cosmos. Given that the education system fails to provide teaching of usage of such devices, I've decided to illuminate the vacant space in the mind of any reader. Consider me an ambassador from alternative Aotearoa: the cultural ambience I've been comfortable in since I was adolescent around 60 years ago.

   If one has a spiritual stance toward life, one must explore the deep context around that in nature & society, so I did. Downtime onsite here this morning nobody has posted thoughts so I may as well do so. Political implications? Ron & Nancy Reagan, as typical members of the Hollywood establishment, had employed astrologers during their lives – Joan Quigley scheduled Reagan's summit(s) with Gorbachev, wrote a book about it.

   I compiled a series of profiles mid '80s, famous astrologers throughout the ages, got up to 50/60 who had substantial influence at the top level, usually via personal relationship with a ruling patron. Not all beer & skittles: the notorious regime ruling Burma was originated via astrologers' advice/influence.

   Two groups usually make fools of themselves in the media on the topic of astrology: those too lazy to study it, commonly known as sceptics, and those delusional in their belief that they understand it, the astrologers. The middle way thro this muddle for any intrigued sceptic with an open mind is to check the situation out. So I did, long ago.

   Basic intellectual sorting was the method – toss the obvious bits of crap aside, keep your pile of gold nuggets close at hand. Relativity due to precession of the equinoxes was the key to ongoing media incompetence – which journo is brave enough to elicit a credible reality check on the origin of zodiac & calendar? None, of course. Idiocy wins by default. Amused & disgusted, I wrote a book to correct all the historical errors, paid the university printer to make me 100 copies in a limited edition. The law says any book published in our nation must have a copy in the national library system so I donated one to the govt. Anyway in the 30+ years since nobody else on the global stage has done it, so it seems like I may be somewhat ahead of my time!

   The important thing to realise is that the deep Green view of life encompasses experiential time, whereas time to mainstreamers is either abstract concept or something to be measure or noted in passing. Ignoring qualia in time is a big mistake. Still, anyone can transcend the limitations of the world-view they carry around in their head at any time. Only folks with an enquiring mind – nobody will ever learn anything new unless they're ready, willing & able (the activist triad).
   • Bruce 1.1

     14 October 2023 at 10:38 am

     Not just Myanmar but also Thailand and it is still an important part of what guides the country,

     https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-king-coronation-astrology-idUSKCN1RY06Q

     https://www.khaosodenglish.com/featured/2017/04/21/curse-haunted-bangkok-150-years-now/

     However I remain confused with many of the practises in Buddhist culture involve the day of your birth which is not constant on astrological calender rather than the date.
     • Dennis Frank 1.1.1

       14 October 2023 at 11:00 am

       Meaning being relative to context, it depends on the user's frame of reference. Astrology attempts to transcend idiosyncrasy via consensual framing, then wallows in idiosyncrasy when interpreting horoscopes. Artistry!

       So caveat emptor applies. I can't comment on whatever confusion Buddhists get into. The middle way in Buddhism is an interesting feature though. In my reinvention of western astrology I used humanistic astrology at first, to get a grasp of how the horoscope is used as a model of the psyche. Then had to finesse the fate/freewill dichotomy to explain how that map of potential can help us in real life.

       Vedic astrology is different again but could be the basis of that used in Myanmar & Thailand. That came down into India as sanskrit with the aryans around third/second millennium BC – but no historical record of course, other than the verses used for transmission of their origin myth. Hamlet's Mill often gets cited in acadaemia but it was a siderealist who produced the best history of the zodiac origin.
2. bwaghorn 2

   14 October 2023 at 10:06 am

   https://theconversation.com/forests-v-farmland-what-the-world-would-look-like-if-we-allocated-all-our-land-in-the-optimal-way-215325

   Completely remapping world food production, in a changing climate
   • Dennis Frank 2.1

     14 October 2023 at 10:22 am

     Yeah, authors using a triad:

     It targets three key indicators. First, the total carbon stored in trees, wetlands and so on, which is an indicator of climate regulation and mitigation. Second, crop production as proxy for food supply. And third, available runoff (excess water the ground cannot absorb), indicating freshwater availability.

     The study’s authors then used an optimisation algorithm to identify how land could be best allocated to reach a point at which the global totals of each of these three objectives could not increase without declines in the other two – that is, the optimum use of land.

     Optimal is excellent praxis, and regarded with loathing by the establishment, who are dead keen to make waste continuously as usual. A societal trend towards resilience thinking has emerged in recent years, however. Progress.
     • lprent 2.1.1

       14 October 2023 at 10:41 am

       Wetlands yes. But looking at trees as a carbon store is ridiculous – unless they are in a swamp, or on peat, or will wash into a swamp. And that is if they are allowed to grow normally.

       If they are grown for cutting, then that is an outright rort.
       • Dennis Frank 2.1.1.1

         14 October 2023 at 11:09 am

         I suspect the authors see themselves as model developers with a focus on resilience planning. Your point comes in downstream of them, where a Green economist would have to map all the economic factors coming into play in their scenario.

         Governance will have to shift in this overall direction – combining expertise in different relevant professions. Stakeholder involvement on the ground in each applied situation will be crucial to success.
         • lprent 2.1.1.1.1

           15 October 2023 at 2:40 am

           I'm not a green economist. What I am is a earth sciences graduate who has some familiarity with geological carbon cycles. Trying to deal with short-term analysis (< 20-50 years) with long-term issue (CO2 residence time >1000 years) is an exercise in futility.

           All agriculture outside of enclosed environments (and there aren't many of those) is economically dependent on having some kind of certainty of weather and climate patterns. The last 10k years when agriculture developed was a period of really really stable climate conditions in geological terms. I could go into why – but that is way too long a topic.

           Having any increased heat in the the surface volatiles in the atmosphere and water will even in the near-term (<100 years) dramatically and exponentially increase the climate and weather variability.

           That will increase the cost of agricultural production because it increases risk. You get unexpected fire, drought, floods, hail, storms, pests, etc all of which undermines the economics of producing food. There is a lot of investment cost in doing any agriculture that simply isn't worthwhile if the risks of not getting a return increase. This is the seed grain dilemma of agriculture.

           Estimating expected climate change effects at a local level are inherently unpredictable purely because we don't have the observation timelines of actual effects. We're completely reliant on proxy effects like tree-rings, isotope shifts, fossil species changes to estimate previous climates – all of which lack information about actual causes and which are inherently sparse. Basically scientifically classifiable as guess work.

           All of the climate models depend on simplifications based on flawed data. You can do a broad brush guesstimate over large areas. Not down to a district or farm or field.

           Which is pretty damn obvious when you consider the discrepancies between complex detailed climate model estimates of factors like as simple as sea ice coverage against reality over the last 30 years. The only thing you can be sure of is that the models will be wrong in significiant detail.

           Uncertainty like that increases economic risk.

           Model development without looking at the risks of downstream risk effects will continually keep risking putting valuable and scarce resource investment into the wrong places. Which, when you look at the effects of risk in the calculations of nett present values of relative investments, means that looking further without significiant reduction of the causes on uncertainty in the present (ie reducing emissions) is pointless. It becomes guesswork

           Each investment into adapting to an expected climate change, is more likely to increase the risk of squandering the ability to adapt later.

           Basically adapting to something simple like the effect of sea level rise on housing is going to be simple – just pass it to insurance premiums.

           But even with relatively stable climate for agriculture the market premiums for agricultural products are ridiculously high as the markets arbitrage risk out. The futures market is about a good as it gets – and I don't think that any serious economist thinks that the futures premiums for agricultural products will reduce under climate change impacts or that the markets will survive too much more volatility.

           At some point farmers stop planting because they can’t make a return because the rate of change is too fast and too extreme for the farming technologies to keep up. There are a hell of a lot of examples in the historical and archaeological record of that happening inside the benign climates of the last 10k years.
           • Dennis Frank 2.1.1.1.1.1

             15 October 2023 at 7:04 am

             Yeah I get all that. A whole new ball-game: modelling, risk management, ad hoc improvising, pragmatic responses to changing situations.

             Governance will need a task force mentality rather than the complacency we have at present. I suspect National will copy Labour & cling to neoliberalism instead – only thing they know how to do. The less it works, the more they will have to adapt to crisis management.
3. Adrian Thornton 3

   14 October 2023 at 10:52 am

   Good to see Western democracies working so unbiased and fairly in this time of crisis….

   The West is banning pro-Palestinian protests

   Waving Palestinian flag may be a criminal offence, Braverman tells police

   France orders ban on all pro-Palestinian protests

   French police break up pro-Palestinian demo after ban

   Berlin authorities ban pro-Palestinian protest

   Shame they were not as fair and balanced when apartheid Israel conducted a slaughter of civilians right out in plain sight…. "214 Palestinians, including 46 children, were killed, and over 36,100, including nearly 8,800 children have been injured. One in five of those injured (over 8,000) were hit by live ammunition"
   https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/

   So it turns out some lives are worth more than others when it comes to Western media….as if we didn't already know
   • Dennis Frank 3.1

     14 October 2023 at 11:49 am

     Fog of war as usual…

     In only the last few days, the Israeli Defense Forces, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office and President Joe Biden made the shocking assertion that Hamas terrorists had beheaded babies, a grisly claim that the White House has since walked back.

     As the allegation came under heavy scrutiny, Netanyahu’s office took the extraordinary step Thursday of publicly releasing graphic photos of the bodies of babies who had been murdered and torched by Hamas, a monstrous act beyond comprehension, though inconsistent with the initial claims of decapitation. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/13/media/israel-hamas-claims-reliable-sources/index.html

     Pracitioners of fake news then, huh? Collateral damage seems the real bit…
   • Anne 3.2

     14 October 2023 at 12:10 pm

     I am sure there is bias in some Western journalism but the more reliable among them have been doing a fairly good job;

     Example:

     https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/justin-welby-gaza-canterbury-archbishop-hamas-b2429526.html

     I have noted the BBC running commentary has been very fair. So has the Guardian. Both have been my 'go to' news outlets for years because by and large one gets a fair minded view of most news stories.
     • Adrian Thornton 3.2.1

       14 October 2023 at 12:57 pm

       @Anne… "Guardian. Both have been my 'go to' news outlets for years because by and large one gets a fair minded view of most news stories."
       ….both the Guardian and the BBC have proved themselves to be nothing more that guard dogs of the Liberal/Capitalist status quo when push comes to shove…here are just two examples…I could line up plenty more, but haven't got time today…but here is a taste..I would approach both those news sources with my bullshit detector turned up high if I where you…

       Study exposes BBC’s deep anti-Corbyn bias

       The Guardian’s betrayal of Corbyn – and of British democracy
   • lurgee 3.3

     14 October 2023 at 5:58 pm

     In fairness, I imagine if the IDF had killed those 214 people over a single day, it might have been considered newsworthy. We are cynically inured to the casual daily barbarisms on both sides and it needs a truly outstanding effort to attract our attention. Hamas has done so very successfully and now the IDF seem to be gearing up to see if they can actually make themselves look worse.
   • SPC 3.4

     14 October 2023 at 9:25 pm

     Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned Israel on Friday against laying siege to Gaza in the same way that Nazi Germany besieged Leningrad, saying a ground offensive there would lead to an "absolutely unacceptable" number of civilian casualties.

     This from the invader of Ukraine, seizing territory and trying to make the rest a failed state.

     https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/10/vladimir-putin-says-israeli-ground-offensive-into-gaza-would-be-absolutely-unacceptable.html
4. Mike the Lefty 4

   14 October 2023 at 12:00 pm

   Looking around the major news sites of the world like bbc, abc, cnn etc.

   The election might be a big deal to us but it barely registers in the rest of the world with the exception of a quite good precis on CNN.

   We are really just small fry in the world.
   • Kay 4.1

     14 October 2023 at 3:33 pm

     https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/13/new-zealand-election-2023-voters-head-to-the-polls

     Of course we're small fry. In the same way NZ media doesn't make a point of mentioning elections in the smaller Eastern European countries, most of Africa, and pretty much anywhere that isn't the US, UK or Australia. Or that could of course be lazy reporting.
   • lurgee 4.2

     14 October 2023 at 5:53 pm

     It is a small country with only 4 million people in it where nothing very interesting is happening a lot of the time.
     • weka 4.2.1

       14 October 2023 at 5:58 pm

       Myself, I like it that way.
       • lurgee 4.2.1.1

         14 October 2023 at 6:24 pm

         It would be even better if we could be even more boring equal and crime free. We should be aiming for Scandinavian levels of boringness.
   • Bruce 4.3

     14 October 2023 at 7:04 pm

     Saw this one bizzare article in Bangkok Post

     https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2663584/burp-tax-causes-pre-poll-stink-with-new-zealand-farmers
5. adam 5

   14 October 2023 at 12:01 pm

   God Bless the UAW.

   Sheesh what a Leader this man Shawn Fain is.

   Spells out why they took out the Kentucky plant on strike.
6. joe90 6

   14 October 2023 at 12:10 pm

   Hussein Ibish in one of the saner voices on MENA travails.

   Trouble is, the people who can prevent this disaster aren't/won't listen.

   Hamas and Iran hope that Israel will refuse to return to the status quo ante and will instead institute a prolonged ground occupation of Gaza, declaring that Hamas can no longer be allowed to pose such a threat. But Gaza, they trust, will be a slaughterhouse for Israeli soldiers, both during the immediate incursion and over time as the anticipated insurgency gains its footing.

   Israel’s apparent eagerness to fall into this trap is understandable, and indeed predictable, which is why Hamas was confident in laying it. Outrageous overreach by terrorists typically aims to provoke overreach. Washington and other friends of Israel who are now seized with sympathy should immediately caution Israel not to make this blunder. If Israel instead exercises restraint, however difficult doing so might be both politically and emotionally, it can thwart the goals of Hamas and its Iranian sponsors. Restraint would go a long way toward ensuring that the diplomatic opening with Saudi Arabia continues to move forward, dealing a major blow to local revisionist powers, such as Iran, and global ones, such as China and Russia, that wish to supplant a rules-based order with one based on “Might makes right.”

   Unfortunately, in the efforts to eliminate Hamas, which cannot be done by force, and to ensure that such a threat can never be allowed to reemerge, which is equally impossible so long as the occupation continues, Israel seems ready to jump right into the briar patch.

   https://archive.ph/L6KBx

   https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-hamas-war-iran-trap/675628/
   • Adrian Thornton 6.1

     14 October 2023 at 2:13 pm

     ", dealing a major blow to local revisionist powers, such as Iran, and global ones, such as China and Russia, that wish to supplant a rules-based order with one based on “Might makes right"…. are you being serious or just taking the piss?…rules based order gtfo.
7. Mike the Lefty 7

   14 October 2023 at 12:23 pm

   This kind of thing happens somewhere in Africa or elsewhere every day but doesn't even rate a mention. As soon as white people get hurt then world media takes notice.
8. Dennis Frank 8

   14 October 2023 at 2:21 pm

   Aussies wonder if allowing indigenous people a voice in govt is a good idea:

   In the electorate, the voice began with high majority support last year. But a six-week formal campaign has seen support slide. A majority of people intend on voting no, according to the latest update from Guardian Australia’s poll tracker, with the yes side having an estimated 41.6% support nationally.

   Despite Dutton’s false claims on 2GB that Albanese never mentioned the voice during the election campaign, the PM and his frontbench regularly noted the commitment to a constitutionally enshrined voice then and for years prior. The campaign included prominent mentions of the voice in Albanese’s speech at the Labor campaign launch in Perth, his National Press Club speech just three days from the 21 May election, press conferences, his closing the gap statement in August 2021 and party policy platform documents. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/14/voice-referendum-yes-campaign-polls

   In Dutton's world, none of those mentions actually happened. Bubble psych still a thing. Regardless, there may be a reason the public have turned away (other than racism).

   Whaddaya reckon: framing of question designed by bureaucrats?? Work of devil?
9. roblogic 9

   14 October 2023 at 2:33 pm

   Australia and Aotearoa both voting today. There’s so much at stake for both nations. Please let kindness, justice and empathy guide you.

   https://x.com/vashtib/status/1712996097579475054?s=46&t=YQYWab08lrynsGdyx3LLKg

   Lots of pieces in the Melbourne Age today about The Voice to Australia referendum. My heart breaks for our Aboriginal friends
   Aussie is a land of wealth and hope and opportunity but the No lobby is mining a darker vein of the Oz psyche #VoiceReferendum

   https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beds_Are_Burning
   • Johnr 9.1

     14 October 2023 at 5:02 pm

     The aussie vote is so tragic, but, totally unsurprising, given my knowledge of our western isle.

     What has dawned on me today, is how politically challenged we TS readers are.

     Not too much comment given politics is off the agenda. I'm getting bored.
     • lprent 9.1.1

       14 October 2023 at 8:09 pm

       It is after 7pm. You appear to be temporally disadvantaged. Perhaps you should get that checked out
10. Dennis Frank 10

    14 October 2023 at 4:00 pm

    Yank Greens shamblefest:

    When Cornel West, famed public intellectual, philosopher, jazz man, pastor, actor and frequent provocateur, told me about his recent divorce from the Green Party, he sounded almost giddy. He was obviously the initiator. “I do feel freed up, I must say,” he said with a chuckle.

    A day earlier, the news had gone public: West was leaving the Green Party to run for president in 2024 as an independent, the second time he’s left a political party in the four months he’s been in the race. But there’s two sides to every breakup, and on the other end sat Jill Stein, the erstwhile Green Party presidential candidate who was on West’s “emergency transition” team into the Green Party, serving as his acting campaign manager for much of the summer. Her rejoinder: You think you’re going to be better off without us? This separation is going to be much worse for you than for me. “I see this as a bit of a transition for us as Greens. … I see this as a crisis for Cornel’s campaign,” she said.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/12/cornel-west-campaign-breakup-green-party-00121048

    You'd think they would have learnt by now that democracy doesn't work, eh?

    The group of men looked something like the black-suited agents from The Matrix franchise, in which West played Councillor West in a role specially created for him by the Wachowski siblings. Today, though, they were slashing through mostly adoring crowds, as West was inundated by a series of appreciators… our politicians, they think ecological catastrophe is just a problem because they have managerial mentality,” West intoned in his ministerial cadence… Something that they can get their hands around and come up with some incremental response as if we’re not living on the edge of the cliff. This is catastrophe.” He held onto “catastrophe” for a second, letting it sing. “That’s right!” the audience chanted.
11. georgecom 11

    14 October 2023 at 4:35 pm

    leaders of Hamas need to go, corrupt Netanyahu and the religious hardliners around him need to go, zealots and fanatics on both sides taken out of the way. The US needs to keep it's nose out. Some pressure on Israel to open dialogue or no further US military support…and then the whole entire rest of the CF that is middle eastern politics. Probably about as much chance of that happening as certain bald headed guys not needing to phone a bloke who should be in a rest home
    • lurgee 11.1

      14 October 2023 at 5:51 pm

      I predict none of these things will happen. Well, the Hamas leadership and Israeli leadership might change, but will also stay the same.
12. weka 12

    14 October 2023 at 6:19 pm

    Hand drawn isobars from MetService over the SI today. Intense.

    https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1713032853016174650
13. satty 13

    14 October 2023 at 6:28 pm

    Guardian has a live ticker for NZ election… here you go

    Guardian – NZ election live
14. SPC 14

    14 October 2023 at 6:41 pm

    One has concerns about how the combined effect of the votes down under might impact on perceptions of our place in the world.

    The polls indicate (let us hope the result is otherwise) we might be perceived as a nationalist cultural part of the white race group and not just a (Five Eyes) security partner.

    Being part of a colonial white race brand is not how we become the nation we should be by 2040.

    And while most are still asleep, as to the modern worlds deep states technological capacity to dominate the human population, this has to become a concern if there is any complicity here with designs for the USA (which the UK has yet to show any sign of challenging). The risk of Orwellian fascism has never been higher.
15. SPC 15

    14 October 2023 at 7:02 pm

    One also hopes that, the administration of this poll was no more than incompetence.
16. SPC 16

    14 October 2023 at 7:13 pm

    Does anyone know whether the offer for Sky Sport is based on insider awareness of new capacity to block free streaming alternatives?
17. SPC 17

    14 October 2023 at 10:36 pm

    Pakistan have made a good start vs India in the World Cup qualifying round.
    • SPC 17.1

      14 October 2023 at 11:04 pm

      Williamson's thumb is broken and he won't play for awhile, maybe a match or two before the semi-final at best.

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