Open mike 15/12/2023
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- Treasury warns deeper recession worsening Budget deficit
The gift that keeps giving: David Seymour has now opened a split in the coalition over the future of National’s promise to build a new medical school. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / TheKakaKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...1 hour ago - Weekly Roundup 22-November-2024
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Record Numbers: The Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, which began at the tip of the North, and the tail of the South, on 11 November, culminated outside Parliament on Tuesday, 19 November 2024, in one of the largest demonstrations in New Zealand’s political history.ACCORDING TO TE ARA, the Ministry of Culture ...3 hours ago - The Rush To Blame “The Activists”
Activists are such easy scapegoats. The right and center have been conditioned for decades to roll their eyes at all protests. The left are easily aggravated over students leading movements they see as belonging to grownups, who have more important concerns like the economy and whether the trains come on ...3 hours ago - Cutting Through An Inundation of Dipshit Racists
Hi,Watching New Zealand from afar offers a strange perspective. It can be a good thing — distance from Aotearoa helped keep me sane while I reported on abuse at New Zealand’s biggest megachurch over the course of a year. It helps fuel my silly podcast. But it can also be ...4 hours ago - This is bad news
The speech yesterday by Treasury’s Chief Economic Advisor warning that the books are in worse shape than forecasted looks like it’s part of a softening-up process for either more cuts or a longer wait to get back into surplus. The speech was a highly unusual public preview of Treasury’s Half-Yearly ...5 hours ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
Open access notables Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances: Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane ...14 hours ago - Chicken Kiev
Chatting in the supermarket this morning, I found I needed to lunge for the chicken drumsticks.Coping mechanisms: who hasn’t felt a greater need for them lately?When it all gets too much, I turn to demonstrating handy butchery hacks.It wasn’t that she’d said anything wrong, our friend, not at all. We ...18 hours ago - The year is 2024 and it’s 1984
This is written in response to the highly significant open letter from a group of economists that was today addressed to Christopher Luxon. The year is 2024, and it’s 1984. The country is reeling from a record Olympic medal gold haul, while the globe grapples with the choice of the ...18 hours ago - The IPCA has failed
Back in 2022, RNZ took an in-depth look at the "Independent" Police Conduct Authority and its handling of killings by police. These are the most serious test of oversight, and you would expect the police's use of lethal force to receive the most severe scrutiny. But despite the police regularly ...22 hours ago - Thursday 21 November 2024
The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...23 hours ago - ‘These budget cuts are counter-productive and make no sense’
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- ACT’s Astroturfing & A Co-ordinated Attack on Te Pati Māori
Unity on the Streets / Unity at the TableAfter the Hīkoi, all three right wing Coalition leaders came together to push the idea that the 42,000 - 50,000 + strong Hikoi was somehow less potent and brave, and more illegitimate than the energy and crowd displayed.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 20-November: ...1 day ago - Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for stabilizing temperatures
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- Economists call on PM to suspend budget cuts for the sake of the economy
Nicola Willis’ budget cuts are under fire from economists for having no clear rationale and worsening the recession. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 21: The news at ...1 day ago
- The end of policing by consent
National has appointed a new police commissioner. And he explicitly rejects policing by consent: Asked if he subscribed to policing by consent, he said he did not. “I don’t talk about policing by consent. I talk about trust and confidence, and it is fundamentally important that the police have ...2 days ago
- The Treaty Principles Bill: A Who’s Who
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- 27% of kids going hungry, up from 21% in a year
One in four Kiwi children live in households where food runs out often or sometimes. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, November 20: The lead: The official annual Health Survey found sharp ...2 days ago - Transport modelling is an illusion
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- Young Maori take over
Neither Wellington nor Parliament has ever seen anything like it before. The Police said there were more than 40,000 but however many there were, yesterday’s Hikoi to Parliament was a monumental event. It was almost three times the Foreshore and Seabed martch of 2004 and many,many times bigger than ...2 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On The Hikoi Aftermath
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Like everyone else (everyone who wasn't there, anyway), I've spent the morning watching the hikoi march on Parliament. The pictures are astounding: parliament grounds and the surrounding streets are full, and there are still people backed up along Lambton Quay. The police are estimating 35,000 people, and that's a floor ...3 days ago
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There were urgent moves yesterday at Parliament to try and defuse the tension building up over ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill. The Bill’s author, ACT leader David Seymour, told reporters that he understood the Justice Select Committee met yesterday to discuss how long it should take to consider submissions on the ...3 days ago
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7 days ago - More lawlessness from National
On Tuesday, sick of government stonewalling, the Waitangi Tribunal issued a rare court order, ordering the Minister of Health to release unredacted documents within 48 hours showing its reasoning for disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The government's response to the lawful order of a court? Yeah, ...7 days ago
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Day One of the Treaty Principles Bill…and everyone got what they wanted, and did what they liked. Heated words were exchanged. Culturally appropriate acts of outrage were performed. David Seymour got to play the victim card. Willie Jackson got kicked out of class. A comically red-faced Mr Speaker bellowed “Order, ...1 week ago
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The government's Treaty Principles Bill is up for its first reading today - bought forward in a rush in a desperate effort to avoid the hikoi which is currently marching on Wellington. But the Prime Minister won’t be there for it – he’s literally running away to Peru! But he ...1 week ago
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Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill. It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the ...1 week ago - Government must vote down ACT Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights
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The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...1 week ago
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National Government’s backward-looking climate policy has seen New Zealand fall seven places on the Climate Change Performance Index to 41 out of 63 countries measured. ...21 hours ago
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The Government is turning its back on children by not only weakening child poverty reduction targets, but also removing child mental wellbeing as a priority focus in their Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. ...1 day ago
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...1 week ago
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
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- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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So. to lower inflation you raise interest rates, courtesy of the RB. You succeed in engineering a recession but inflation still persists, leaving you with stagflation. Was raising interest rates ever going to impact demand and ultimately lower prices? Or do we really have a supply side inflationary problem that the RB cannot directly influence?
I look forward to reading the views of the experts.
I permanently banned you yesterday for fundamental disrespect of The Standard, but forgot to update the ban list. Fixed now.
No shortage of economists in NZ for you to look up. Do your own homework.
Kelvin Davis retires from politics.
Thankyou Kelvin for multiple decades of public service to education and in particular to the people of the Far North.
I have so many relatives up there in Kaitaia that you helped.
Also, formidable work with Corrections, steering more Maori men away from jail and into alternative sentencing. From 11,000 people in jail in 2018 down to 7,700 in jail this year. And of course shoutout to Andrew Little as the lead Minister on this.
I don't really care that you weren't that good on the Parliamentary paepae.
You were a dedicated public servant who did a lot of good.
Hopefully you get to turn your governance chops to a Far North treaty settlement.
Totally agree Ad.
He did his work quietly and efficiently without public fanfare. I once had a long chat with Kelvin in his early parliamentary years and he confessed to feeling uncomfortable in a largely Pakeha environment. He overcame it as far as I know and when he was among friends and allies he had an engaging personality – something the general public did not often see.
Kelvin Davis was useless, a waste of space and NZ politics is well rid of him
However good luck with his future endeavours
[Please stick to the one email address here and change it back in your next comment, thanks – Incognito]
Mod note
I pretty much go with whatevers saved on the device I'm using at the time if posting but I'll see if I can track another down
You don’t need to change device, you need to change your email address back to the same one that you’ve used here before. If you can’t or won’t do this, I will just stop releasing your comments held up in the SPAM filter, as I have better things to do on a Friday night after work. Your choice.
I think I've got it right this time?
Two good men who will be missed. I met Andrew Little in the Leadership race. A genuine person, and from what I have heard from family in the North Kelvin is a genuine person as well. Thanks for that Ad,
and thank you to both of them.
The initial work was in the area of parole and paperwork processing.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/107588798/corrections-cuts-prison-numbers-by-stepping-up-successful-parole-hearings
Unfortunately society issues, as per housing insecurity and costs, has had an impact on crime rates, and thus the three headed hydra confabulation imagines a different sentencing regime to be more appropriate.
Given that the issue is prison staffing levels and capacity on addiction rehab/work training/work release and work from "community release" housing.
Kelvin Davis and Andrew Little displayed sincerity, integrity and compassion. They will be missed from Parliament.
Kelvin is a gracious man with a lot of mana and I wish him all the best for the future.
Old Putin was sounding pretty cocky yesterday, but a day is a long time in politics and he'll be furious this morning that his toady Orban got so completely isolated that Hungary was basically ignored and Ukraine got a big win on it's journey to EU membership.
The humiliation of the Hungarian leader at this summit has been total, Hungary must surely reconsider it's position.
Looks like Biden will soon budge on the border issue and get Ukraine it's money & Donald Tusk was sounding super belligerent talking about Russian aggression. I stand by my prediction of a decisive Polish intervention in 2025 against the Russians in the Ukraine, their entire crash re-armament program points to being ready for a full scale war with Russia in 2025.
Interesting scenario. What do you base the Polish angle on and why 2025, not 2024? Preparedness?
Genuine questions.
Another year is a long time for Ukraine to hold on when things appear to be pretty much at a stalemate now (with minor movements).
Yes agree with the Poland move since the warning are really clear from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg yesterday that Putin will wage war into the Baltic:
"If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is real risk that his aggression will not end there," Stoltenberg told reporters during a meeting with Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico. "Our support is not charity. It is an investment in our security."
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-chief-sees-real-risk-of-putin-attacking-other-countries-after-ukraine/
That’s a fairly in-your-face statement to Fico, a Putin supporter who won the Slovakia election and has now stopped all arms deliveries to Ukraine.
That Russian fleet into the Baltic Sea is now totally surrounded by fully-fledged NATO members, and of course the Alakurtti military base at the top near Finland is also bordered by a full NATO state now.
I'd see the chances of war expanding against a NATO country as increasingly over 50% in 2024.
The risk is on the Sulwaki path to the Kaliningrad area to separate Poland from Lithuania. But Byelorussia/Belarus forces could not do it, without Russia forces (Wagner etc, which would explain the nukes placed there as a deterrent), or the risk of a blockade on Kaliningrad.
In that regard the recent accident of a Chinese ship's anchor cutting cables and a gas pipeline to Finland (as happened earlier in the year to an island off Taiwan) is part of off the books actions/PWO.
Government position on ferries appears increasingly ideological.
With no (effective) savings to be made by cancelling the current proposal, are they advocating the end of a NI/SI rail link?
Kiwirail CEO speaking on RNZ this morning…..
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018919676/ferry-mega-budget-blow-out-where-to-from-here
Almost all of the budget blow out is due to the vastly increased cost of the shore-side facilities required for the new, much larger, ferries.
All the KiwiRail CEO has said is that it may be more cost effective to continue the build of the current ferries (probably removing the rail component) and on-sell them.
Requiring Kiwrail to go back to the drawing board and come up with (rail capable) ferries which fit the existing infrastructure – will indeed result in savings.
The 'ideological' position on the affordability of the project appears to be shared by Labour.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/grant-robertson-fires-back-at-nicola-willis-over-cook-strait-ferry-budget-blowout/HHZCLNPPINEXPJQAGGJOYSFUWQ/
The onshore works are required regardless (some necessitated by changed standards) and the wharves are at the end of their working lives…the increased size (and capacity) of the ships only adds marginally (IIRC around 7%) to the costs of the onshore facilities.
The design life period is the stated cause of the blow outs….and we know NZs history of short term savings (the cheap option) to the detriment of longer term expenses.
And that dosnt account for the productivity gains of the superior facilities (including the ferries themselves)
What barbs the pollies throw at each other is of little import …what matters is a fit for purpose transport infrastructure….unless we have decided we dont need one….somehow I doubt Labour would have canned the entire project at this late stage and sent everyone back to the drawing board….that is not to say they may not have sought modification to either the project or its funding.
If there is little effective (even initial) saving by ceasing this project at this stage then what can be the motivation be other than ideology?
If I’m in the wrong place to ask this question, sorry about that. What I want to know is can the COCs pass legislation through under urgency without any scrutiny at all?
Yes, under urgency, the government can pass legislation with only the scrutiny afforded by the opposition in the House. This means that bills do not (necessarily) go to select committee, and pass through the 'normal' legislative process.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/how-parliament-works/fact-sheets/what-is-urgency/
There is, of course, a risk in this – as you can end up with 'bad' law (I'm speaking here of law which is badly drafted, or has unintended consequences – rather than law you may dislike). Select committees very frequently spot these issues, and they are corrected by the government before the bill progresses to the next stage.
Labour used urgency to pass a number of laws at the end of 2022 – including the highly controversial (and later reversed) entrenchment of 3 waters.
Many thanks Belladonna. Good clarification for me.
The next step is the sale of KiwiRail, it has been the plan all along.
And then Kiwibank
@ Adrian and MtL:
Bastards!
Winston selling state assets yeah…nah?
Then electricity and water
The shock and awe campaign is just starting
Why stop there? You have to start thinking like a NACT and imagine everything can be sold [off].
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/504834/firm-bidding-for-public-healthcare-as-anchor-tenant-in-private-hospital-buildings
It's like Truss and Bojo have taken over, but less encumbered by ethics
So corruption has reached the very highest places in government. The nation is truly screwed when these sort of appointments are made.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/attorney-general-judith-collins-appointed-as-king-s-counsel.html
”In a statement on Friday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said it was appropriate to appoint Collins the high honour given "her career achievements and the responsibility she holds on behalf of the Crown" as Attorney General.
Not all previous Attorney Generals have been appointed either Queen's or King's Counsel, but the Government pointed to previous examples like Christopher Finlayson in 2012 and Paul East in 1995.”
Does a kings council come with power?
Yes we are screwed. Judith Collins becoming a KC? The queen of dirty politics!
These arseholes have sunk so far in an incredibly short time and dragged our nation down with them.
It's being said they will only be a one-term government but how much damage will they do to the social fabric of Aotearoa in three years (if they last that long)?
How do we fight back against this incompetence, spite, cronyism and corruption? Labour is not the answer, so what is?
Organising is the answer.
What does that mean practically?
Especially for those of us who don't live in a main or even provincial centre.
I m in Auckland just let me know where the first
riotprotest is being heldI really hoped that Luxon would be more centrist but he's just a patsy with no spine as far as I can tell, letting the far right freaks run amok.
I miss Muldoon's "Think Big", and Bolger's "Decent Society"
The NAF government motto seems to be "I got mine and fuck the rest of you"
Judith Collins Kings Counsel! What a hoot. Talk about keeping your enemies close. She knows where all the bones are buried.
Judith Collins KC! Every other day this new government does something bizarre and illogical. Can just see the gleeful smirk on her face.
The one question the Auditor-General does not answer, because it is not his job, what were the consequences of economic uncertainty, from a lack of government action?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133460439/former-governments-15b-infrastructure-spendup-rushed-illinformed–auditorgeneral
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121580620/governments-shovelready-projects-wont-save-construction-industry-expert-says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/119121503/projectbyproject-where-the-infra-package-will-be-spent-around-nz
SPC is correct. That first article provides (a little) context which was entirely missing from National's attacks attack on Labour after the AG report on the NZUP and SRP projects, and deserves some response from Labour.
Wonder then what the auditor-general thinks about things like the smoke free legislation reversal or the ferry cancellation or the money paid to I am hope…
The former government’s $15 billion spend-up on infrastructure was rushed and ill-informed, and more should have been done to ensure the programmes delivered value for money, Auditor-General John Ryan says.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133460439/former-governments-15b-infrastructure-spendup-rushed-illinformed–auditorgeneral
Come to think of it I wonder what he things about bailing out South Canterbury Finance. What does he think about the non-contestable funding of parenting courses to Parents Inc or the money National attempted to give PEDA outside normal processes.
Thank you Labour.
On TV1 he explicitly took credit for the speed of delivery.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/12/prime-minister-christopher-luxon-unveils-coromandel-s-new-gold-plated-taparahi-bridge-on-state-highway-25a.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter