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6:00 am, January 17th, 2024 - 75 comments
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Oh my God! How did this happen?
Let the conniptions begin…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/16/trump-threat-iowa-caucus-polls
It pays to remember that last time iowa voted for ted cruz..
Iowa is white/rural/reactionary..unlike most of the rest of america…
Victory for trump in iowa in no way indicates another term for him..
Indeed, it does pay to remember that. Trump has won a state he didn't pick up in 2016.
Doesn't that tell us he is now in a better position to win the Republican nomination when he is winning states he previously lost.
His victory in Iowa was the largest margin of victory in the history of the state’s Republican caucuses, further securing his position as the Republican frontrunner.
This is a 1 horse race.
The only thing that will stop him now is the Supreme Court.
The only thing that will stop him now is the Supreme Court.
That's not going to happen.
On reflection I agree.
Even if the States that have disqualified him, are successful in the appeal courts, Trump still wins the nomination.
There's a really interesting analysis of the Iowa result here, following an analysis of the U.S. bombing of Yemen. The Iowa analysis, including an appreciation of Trump's comic ability, begins at the 18:30 mark…
Thanks
I think it's worth mentioning that if the Supreme or some other court stops him that'll be down to what he's done not someone else.
Naturally, for months he's been on his campaign to convince everyone he's being picked on. Don't want to do the time? Don't do the crime.
If you don't like this then don't look at the federal election polls.
Bidens losing in all but one swing state.
Trump beats Biden with Latinos and voters under 30.
Bidens lead with African American voters has dissolved by 20% as black voters frustrated over their govt funding Israel and Ukraine while cutting their public services and giving public housing to refugees and immigrants turn to Cornell West, Kennedy and Trump.
Bidens the most unpopular president seeking reelection in history.
The senate map is extremely unfavorable to democrats this year and with Biden on the ticket Dems are gonna be obliterated in the senate and congress.
Trumps probably going to win the popular vote this time and looking at the health of two of the democratic scotus judges… It's not good.
The gen z and Latino polling numbers are astounding and getting worse and worse.
Trumps approval ratings are higher than Bidens
The democrats won't be able to blame white people or old people for Trump winning on these numbers, only themselves.
The irony of attacking and gleefully waving goodbye to working class voters in favor of some fanciful coalition of the college educated, generational and identity based.
Only for large swaths of that coalition to decide "I make too much money to vote democrat"
The way the lefts going globally whose going to be left voting for it, uni grads and the lgbt?
If you're not representing the working class you're a tory, no matter how pretty you talk.
The working class should be representation of the working class by the working class not by the upper middle class and anyone who says class doesn't apply to usa or nz is highly unlikely to be working class.
Seven years ago the former Clinton cabinet member Robert Reich summed up the rottenness of the Democratic Party. It has not gotten one bit better since then.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/10/democrats-working-class-americans-us-election
Only 14% of registered Republicans voted in vile weather in Iowa, and just under half of them voted against Trump.
Its an interesting opinion poll on where the GOP is at.
So those record majority claims earlier in the thread are just an example of stats being total horseshit/meaningless….
Why do you think they are meaningless Phillip?
The turnout in 2024 was almost identical to the 2012 caucuses. There was record turnout in 2016, but event then only 24% of registered Republicans turned up?
So only 51% of the most committed republicans want Trump ?
How is that a victory in the sense of intra party support
It says to me 49% dont want him as their candidate – even though hes that rareity a former President
Dunno, was a record margin which is ominous https://apnews.com/article/trump-iowa-caucus-haley-desantis-cold-voting-begins-0af10f1ba21d488af54776b2c8d4028c
Nah.
The Iowa Republican caucuses were a low-turnout affair, drawing just over 108,000 voters, or about 14.4% of the state’s approximately 752,000 registered Republicans, nearly complete vote tallies showed.
https://archive.li/VpWbA (wsj)
That sounds like an authoritative assessment, joe. Almost as authoritative as the talented pollster Ezra Klein's assessments in 2016.
Lowest turnout since 2000, down>40% on 2016, and barely half went with tRump so nah, nothing ominous there.
51%? That is the largest margin of victory ever.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-tops-opponents-biden-hits-new-low-approval/story?id=106335244
Thats misleading . Normally being first in the nation means theres a lot 'contenders' who drop out.
Trump is the former President so should be way way higher
Guess what Trump got in 2020 as the existing President
97% , so this time is a massive drop
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
Are you disputing that Trump is the front runner and an almost unbackable favourite to win the nomination?
Winning the nomination from Republicans isnt the prize- winning the Presidency is
Iowa is one of the least diverse states and Trump can only manage half of the republicans of that state?
How is he going to get half of democrats and independents on board [they cant vote in the GOP primary] to win the Presidency
Correct. But we aren't discussing the Presidential election. You're comment at 2.2.2 was in relation to the Iowa Caucuses.
I, like most Kiwis hope that Trump fails. But that is just hopeful thinking and not based on any analysis .
I would almost bet my house on Trump winning the nomination, and can't really see him losing toa sitting President who can't string a simple sentence together.
please fix your username on next comment.
Done.
Apologies for wasting your time
Trump is the incoherent one
Even De Santis is broadcasting them
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/11/11/trump-gaffes-age-campaign/
yes they are both too old , but it is a gerontocracy.
One in 10 of the 1700 Federal judges with lifetime jobs are over the age of 80
NZ Judges must retire at 70 but can serve for a further 2 years as an 'acting judge'
Often handy for long running cases
Okay, I'm just curious and want to loop back up the thread. Do you doubt that Trump will, almost certainty, win the Republican nomination?
What was Trumps share of the Republican Iowa primary 'vote' last election cycle ?
“And that has meant, for example there have been police investigations into those threats almost the entire time that she has been a Member of Parliament, and so obviously if you’re living with that level of threat in what is already quite a stressful situation then there are going to be consequences for that.”
Imagine, if you will, how that might have been.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/506852/former-green-mp-golriz-ghahraman-subject-to-continuous-threats-whilst-in-parliament-shaw
She would have been better off if she assaulted someone with a piece of furniture… Much more acceptable.
Or physically harassed a waitress by repeatedly pulling her hair, also fondling kids hair is a ok.
Also…glasshouses and all that…I worked in the fashion industry for some years, some years ago. I also worked at a very high end shop. The amount of shoplifting by the women who were well off in the high end shop was Epic! Much less in the lower socio economic areas at that time. I believe it's a way that some people use to release anxiety. We need to support our women more.
Like, allegedly, assaulting a member of your staff?
[right, you’re one of the people I’ve had to spend moderator time on this week. Take a day off while I have a look at your posting history, because I think you’ve been warned about trolling and commenting before.
In the meantime, read this and have a think about whether you want to keep your commenting ability on TS and what you are willing to do to retain that. https://thestandard.org.nz/we-need-a-better-class-of-right-wing-troll/ – weka]
[consensus among the mods is that you’re here to troll and don’t add much to the site. Plus you’ve already been given a final warning. Permanent ban – weka]
mod note.
final mod note.
the press conference yesterday where Shaw said that was quite moving. I think many people have no idea how much abuse people like Ghahraman are subjected to, or what it means.
That should start realieasing them to public , with the senders name and photo if possible,
I'm guessing there are reasons to not do that. Escalation, plus what happens when/if they get to court.
It would be very simple to have everyone who leaves an abusive message for an MP to get a swift response from some senior member of the Diplomatic Protection Squad. It should not have to threaten violence – just anything offensive should have their call or message returned.
These are gutless cowards , they won't escalate they'll cower and run , my first thought was put them in the stocks and throw cabbages at them ,
I'm sure most of them are. However, poking the bear is not a safe response. It's only going to take one for us to step over the line and become more like the US.
Shaw, on behalf of the party, is showing genuine empathy and balance, all of which will be lost on those who don't wish to be empathetic. I admire that guy.
nearly every time he fronts on something like this he comes through. Lots of respect. Agree that it will be lost on some, and likewise that empathy is choice. Maybe not social and emotional intelligence.
No Right Turn has strong words for Willis claiming that the previous government had cooked the books and left the new government with a financial mess to clean up. It was a serious allegation from Willis but …
https://norightturn.blogspot.com/2024/01/willis-made-no-complaints-about-prefu.html
I believe texting 13 year old girls by certain ministers is also acceptable.
The most noticeable stat is that Northland, BOP/Rotorua have a problem in their primary schools – Waikato also, to a lesser degree.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/01/vaping-smoking-bigger-issue-in-primary-schools-than-secondary-new-figures.html
This article by David Farrier is exactly how I feel about the Golriz Ghahraman affair:
https://www.webworm.co/p/golriz
We have to do better by our female politicians and our minority group politicians in our beautiful land.
Agree.
Compare it to the massive hui for this weekend and the roll-on it will have to Waitangi.
Compare it to the policy issues that are released today such as the Electoral Commission's 500-page report with masses of recommendations, including
– Votes for all prisoners
– 4 year voting term
– MMP threshold down to 2.5%
… and many more.
List MPs are just changed within weeks requiring no further political focus.
We don't need to whitewash any allegation, but can we get back to the actual policy contests.
These are very important policies that should be considered the most in our society. This absolutely affects Aotearoa/NZ the most in terms of policies.
I find it weird that our lip-licking & gore-grubbing media don't seek out to be thoughtfully and humanly discussing this sort of proposed policy for our country given that we will be affected by a longer parliamentary term, a house full of more political parties and politicians and so on…
The 4th Estate is in crisis.
I think the horrors this gummint is going to unleash..mean that a four year term is dead in the water..
Nothing quite like feeding people to the lions as a distraction from their own dodgy issues…
The North Asian arms race gets very little coverage here, which is bizarre because a big conflict there would almost certainly involve us via our status as a military client state of Australia.
South Korea is an excellent example of the rapid decline of the influence of the traditional European military power houses. The ROK provided Ulraine with a third of a million 155mm artillery shells with six weeks of the request and last year provided more of this vital ammunition type to Ukraine than the entire EU combined, and hardly raised a sweat doing it.
Poland is buying thousands of Korean tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery – and it's all being done on a timeline of a few years, not decades and with handy locally assembly offsets. Estonia, Finland, Norway and Romania have all made recent large orders for South Korean equipment which is cheaper, as good as anything produced in Europe, gets delivered promptly, has excellent supply chains and doesn't come with protracted debates in the Bundestag about if they should be allowed them in the first place.
Outside of Europe the ROK has made waves with big orders to Egypt and Australia for their Self-propelled artillery and Infantry Fighting Vehicles. The Germans, who used to dominate the tank market, haven’t had a big non-EU sale in a long while.
The Naval arms race is simply mind boggling. The Chinese PLAN currently launches about one major warship every 12-14 weeks, and has done for almost a decade and plans to continue to do so for the foreseable future. The Japanese Navy has 30 submarines, mostly built in the last 15 years, and forty or so majore surface combatants. To put it another way, the JMSDF is bigger than the British and French navies combined. South Korea's navy has 22 attack submarines and is 50% bigger than the Royal Navy in major surface warships. Again, mostly new. The ROK is mulling building an aircraft carrier or two and since they they have 1000s of Short Range Ballistic Missiles's they are wondering about developing nuclear warheads for them.
The United States is scrambling to re-open closed shipyards and dockyards to again mass produce warships.
Australia as well know want a dozen nuclear attack submarines and a big surface fleet, whilst the Australian arms industy os going gangbusters – they've just signed a deal to produced ATACMS and HIMARS missiles domestically.
The Phillipines, sick of being pushed around by China, is ordering new ships and is re-opening the Subic bay naval base for it’s allies to use if they need a helping hand.
Arguing if we should have an arms industry is now moot. We should be building a modern 155mm ammunition plant next to Glenbrook steel mill, think of the export $$$$!!!!
Did you check out the Chinese ballistic missile scandal and resulting 'restructures'?
I don't believe half of what was reported about the Chinese scandal, some of it read like wishful thinking from the West. For a start, liquid fuelled missiles are really, really old technology and I would be surprised if those that are still in service would be particularly relied on. Everyone has used solid rocket fuel since the 1980s and I can’t imagine China hasn’t had the plans of Russian ICBMs on their harddrives since the 1990s when the chaos of Yeltsin’s Russia meant everything was for sale (I read a possibly apocryphal and hair raising tale of a couple of wags who rang a Russian naval base in the late 1990s pretending they were from Venezuela and asking after a cruise missile submarine. The were asked if they wanted it with the missiles or without…)
The faulty silo lids I could believe, simply because that is a classic n00b mistake and mirrors similar Russian problems from ages ago – I assume the Chinese acquired those Russian blueprints as well.
But the meta is a military that has undergone breakneck expansion in an economy where quality control isn't much of thing and corruption and kickbacks in the CCP is rampant. I was reading just the other week that foreign observers of Chinese peacekeepers found Chinese equipment fragile and of poor construction. The J-20 stealth fighter has a powerplant plagued with reliability issues, high fuel consumption, and inability to develop the promised thrust while the Chinese struggle with the high maintenance costs of their latest kit as much as the Americans do with theirs.
China hasn't fought a major war since Korea, and I suspect that lack of warfighting experience would lead to initial major systemic failures in combat against an opponent like the United States.
Shoutout to Bernie Sanders for tabling a proposal that the US subject Israel to scrutiny about its human rights record (the overlooked provision 502B) by analysing the human rights record of any country receiving US aid.
The 11 Senators voting in favour included Rang Paul, Elizabeth Warren, Peter Wlch, and Jeff Merkley.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/israel-gaza-senate-vote-against-human-rights-report_n_65a70499e4b00bbb446d0088
Sure it was a doomed effort, but it was a principled one. So good on Bernie.
Sure it was a doomed effort..
It was a doomed effort only because the political class almost completely ignores the American people.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/6/us-congress-support-for-gaza-ceasefire-lower-than-american-public
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/americans-want-cease-fire-new-poll/
When you witness violent offending and various other crimes in central Auckland (as I have numerous times) you soon learn that it's hardly worth calling the cops. They are too busy and/or understaffed, we're told. Especially for places like dairies, when there are robberies. Just not important enough.
But five – yes, five – officers are available to visit an obviously non-violent person who is then charged with a non-violent crime. They'd get exactly the same result by asking "please pop round to the police station". She's not running away.
I have never seen five cops at a local dairy, unless there is blood on the floor.
Police charge former Green MP Golriz Ghahraman over shoplifting allegations – NZ Herald
"I have never seen five cops at a local dairy, unless there is blood on the floor."
Even then you'd be hard pressed. Five officers required to interview one non violent young woman about some shoplifting ? This is pathetic behaviour from PC Plod.
Reminds me of the overkill when they ransacked Nicky Hager's home cos… rawshark etc. etc. He eventually got recompense and an apology, but it sometimes seems they don't learn from their own mistakes.
Only if the pies are being restocked
Not sure what your angle is and what fantastic narrative you’re trying to create here …
I’d add that this seems very unlike you
I think Observer's angle is the obvious over-kill in sending five cops plus more in unmarked cars for a violent free crime when the culprit was obviously not a violent person and had already confessed to her guilt.
Unless they saw it as good PR… see here folks, we’re doing our job. 😉
The only angle or narrative is that this is ridiculous overkill, as other commenters have noted.
According to the Stuff report, the police were there all day, from 7 am. A strange priority for police resources. There was no risk of Golriz doing anything except co-operate. Make one phone call, one appointment, court date Feb. A few minutes of formalities, nothing more.
So why the big show?
Police lay charges following Golriz Ghahraman shoplifting allegations | Stuff
Perhaps they were protecting a woman who has received death threats.
I thought that too and would really like to believe it. Problem is, death threats don't go away on schedule this afternoon. But the police did.
Or, the police went round early hours or overnight because of concern, and now it's less of an threat for whatever reason. For whatever reason because none of us know what is going on.
I think the least likely explanation is that the police felt they needed 5 police people to interview Ghahraman.
that would be my guess. Reporter said an unmarked police car was outside her house since 7am. Doesn't say if that's when police arrived or the reporter arrived. But odds on she has received death threats.
In one fell swoop five plods have attained a better work story.
I have not seen footage. Did a police-person of the female persuasion visit Golriz or was it just the boys?
Good point!
Just the boys as far as I can tell.
To take your minds off unpleasant things like overbearing police and the character assassination campaign against one of our few decent politicians, here's the latest release from Bucklands Beach's finest…
God bless the UAW – getting new union members and pushing for better wages and conditions.
Message from UAW President Shawn Fain. On the attack on workers trying to unionise.
Good luck to the UAW and the unions and other workers' organisations!