Open mike 18/03/2024

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, March 18th, 2024 - 56 comments
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56 comments on “Open mike 18/03/2024 ”

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  1. Ad 1
    18 March 2024 at 8:43 am

    Curious to see the Deputy Prime Minister do a "state of the nation" speech a week after the Prime Minister did one.

    To get a little rise out of mainstream media in politics these days, you need set piece moves like this.

    Surely it's time Hipkins did his own "state of the nation" speech, to get similar mainstream cut-through.

    • Anne 1.1
      18 March 2024 at 10:11 am

      Hipkins is doing his SotN speech in about a week's time. I believe it is taking place in South Auckland. In the meantime he did this 30 min. stand-up for the media at Labour's recent retreat. No comparison to Luxon. Hipkins talks substance. Luxon favours platitudes and hyperbole over substance:

      • Ad 1.1.1
        18 March 2024 at 10:34 am

        Look forward to it.

      • Bearded Git 1.1.2
        18 March 2024 at 10:40 am

        What gets up my nose about Luxon and his coalition followers is their lies about the NZ economy.

        For instance, in the second quarter of 2020, due to Covid, NZ's GDP fell a massive 12.2%, "by far the highest on record."

        https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/covid-19-sees-record-12-2-percent-fall-in-new-zealands-economy

        Despite those dire times the government, which for part of this time included NZF, managed the economy so that it survived relatively intact. In particular the lockdowns enabled the economy to keep working pretty much as normal except for tourism. We were the envy of the world.

        Now we have Luxon and Peters rewriting economic history without a mention of Covid. In fact Robertson's handling of government debt levels over this period put NZ in a much better state than most of the OECD economies.

        https://croakingcassandra.com/2023/12/02/government-net-debt-how-does-nz-compare/

        I wish that they would stop telling lies.

        • weka 1.1.2.1
          18 March 2024 at 10:46 am

          is the MSM calling NACTF out on this?

        • alwyn 1.1.2.2
          18 March 2024 at 11:38 am

          The problem is that, although the OECD countries only had a rise in their debt levels in 2020 Robbo, having got a severe case of borrow and waste, just kept going. Other countries have lower levels of borrowing than they did at the end of 2020. We are, thanks to Robertson, much more in debt than we were in 2020.

          It isn't the $20 billion or so that we borrowed and spent in 2020 that is the problem. It is the much greater amount that he got through in the 3 years when Labour Governed alone.

          Where did it all end up? We certainly don't have anything to show for it?

          • KJT 1.1.2.2.1
            18 March 2024 at 1:18 pm

            I love right wing tragics when they are being satirical.

            • alwyn 1.1.2.2.1.1
              18 March 2024 at 2:44 pm

              I'm afraid that it was Robertson's two terms as Minister of Finance that demonstrated the truth of Karl Marx's statement. To paraphrase what he said.

              Robertson's two terms were an example of history repeating. His first term was tragedy. His second was repeating it as farce.

          • Bearded Git 1.1.2.2.2
            18 March 2024 at 2:14 pm

            That is not what the graphs show that I posted above Alwyn. You are just perpetuating the lies of your masters.

            All 3 years of that Labour-only government was affected by Covid or Covid recovery.

            • alwyn 1.1.2.2.2.1
              18 March 2024 at 2:36 pm

              The first graph in Michael Reddell's link (Croaking Cassandra) shows exactly what I said. New Zealand debt rose in a nearly straight line from about 4% in 2019 to around 16% in 2023. It never declined at all and was forecast, by the OECD to keep going up if Labour Party policy continued in 2024-2025

              The median result for OECD countries rose from about 30% to 38% in 2020 and then dropped abruptly to around 26% in 2023. They stopped throwing money away and we kept going.

              There was no need to keep going as Robertson did. The worst of Covid was over by the beginning of 2021. We just wouldn't accept it.

              • Ed1 …
                18 March 2024 at 4:04 pm

                There are two complications. NZ has the Cullen Fund. I don't know if it is now being drawn upon, but I suspect it is the closest we have got to a Sovereign Fund such as Norway have. Good investment Returns are what got the current Governor of the Reserve Bank his job; that fund and other government actions resulted in us having an increase in net GDP despite higher borrowing on at least one occasion. New Zealand has a higher level of private debt than most countries – and now sadly a higher level of companies operating in New Zealand but substantially owned by overseas shareholders. Tis sees us sending a lot of profit overseas rather than having it to help us through hard times. Hence the discussion about why it would make sense to retain at least some NZ ownership of assets like the Wellington Airport, and similar organisations in other cities.

              • Bearded Git …
                18 March 2024 at 4:07 pm

                I don't accept that argument at all Alwyn. You are again parroting Luxon, Seymour and (to his shame) Peters.

                Recovering from Covid required some serious government intervention. We are already in a GDP per capita recession despite all of that government spending-it would have been a full-blown economic death-spiral without it.

                The Croaking Cassandra graph shows NZ's net government liabilities as a percentage of GDP at 19% versus 28% for the OECD in 2025, which is creditable, and not the disaster you and your C of C friends paint it.

                Your argument appears to be that the NZ debt percentage line would have continued to go up after 2025. That would not have happened. As the post-covid economic recovery became complete a Labour-led government would have eased expenditure.

              • SPC …
                18 March 2024 at 4:38 pm

                You do realise that the government is no better placed as to reaching a budget surplus and debt levels than Labour?

                And not only are we below OECD average debt

                https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm

                We are one of the few with net wealth

                https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-financial-wealth.htm#indicator-chart

                • alwyn …
                  18 March 2024 at 7:20 pm

                  "You do realise that ….. "

                  Yes, and I also realise that the interest we have to pay on the $100 billion or so that Robbo borrowed isn't making it any easier to get to a budget surplus. It might not matter if it had actually been invested in something useful but it just seems to have been tossed out with the dishwater.

                  • KJT …
                    18 March 2024 at 7:59 pm

                    Things such as upgrading schools and infrastructure, road safety improvements to name just a few. Keeping everyone in jobs during and after COVID. Wasted?

                    You really want to see waste. Just hold my beer, for the next three years. Watch the recession, happening right now that National, ACT and the reserve Bank have talked the country in to over the past year.

                    As Key borrowed for tax cuts for the wealthy, while neglecting infrastructure, health, education and other investments for the future. Even road maintenance. While bringing in hundreds of thousands to give the illusion of a growing economy, while leaving a huge spending deficit for a future Government to repair, this Government is determined to go down the same path.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    18 March 2024 at 8:01 pm

                    … the interest we have to pay on the $100 billion or so …

                    Was Willo unaware of the impact of this 'technical number' on tax cuts?

                    Nicola Willis: I'd quit as finance minister if my tax cut plan fails

                    Out of her depth – feel sorry for the kids, missing out on their movies.

                    Here's how Willis reacted when asked about how much she stood to personally receive from her party’s tax cut proposals:

                    ’In our family of two incomes we’d get $80 a fortnight. And kids, that means instead of movie night meaning DVDs and Tip Top at home, we might go out to the movies.”

                    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2308/S00055/on-nationals-tax-cuts.htm

                  • SPC …
                    18 March 2024 at 10:40 pm

                    Reddell notes, as he did last year, that the governments revenues plans are in ruins. So no tax cuts.

                    The KiwiBank economist says we need to spend more on infrastructure. So not tax cuts, deficit spend (have higher debt) on the right stuff.

                    https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/18/ex-reserve-bank-economist-says-nows-not-the-time-for-tax-cuts/

                  • Bearded Git …
                    19 March 2024 at 12:18 pm

                    Can you give me the exact make up of what that $100 billion was spent on please?

                    In reality it is a number plucked from the air by Luxon to berate Labour with, when in fact, despite the Covid Crash and despite the Ukraine war induced cost of living/inflation/high interest rates crisis, Robertson kept NZ government borrowing well below the OECD average as the graph I posted above demonstrates.

                    • alwyn …
                      19 March 2024 at 2:06 pm

                      I have no idea where Robertson squandered all the money he borrowed. I doubt if even he could tell you.

                      Of course the borrowing was below the OECD average. That was because when he started we had almost no debt. According to the graph you posted it must have been about 1% of GDP

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    19 March 2024 at 2:41 pm

                    I have no idea where Robertson squandered all the money he borrowed.

                    Alwyn, if you have no idea, then why would you believe the money was "squandered"? Is it just that not enough dosh was squandered on you?

                    Our self-serving CoC govt is bent, on squandering tax cuts on landLords.

                    Optics and illusions in politics [16 March 2024]
                    There must have been at least some degree of political discomfort about a tax break for landlords coming when so many New Zealanders who don’t own rental properties are “doing it tough”, as Prime Minister Christopher Luxon likes to say. It didn’t help that it came just days after a previous optical failure. That was when Luxon was tangled up in an entirely foreseeable story about claiming a $52,000 accommodation allowance rather than staying in Premier House, in order to live instead in his own mortgage-free Wellington apartment.

                    Luxon kept repeating that he was “entitled” to the allowance until he saw the light. “Entitled” proved to be an unfortunate choice of word.

                    Officials side with Government on rent debate, but Treasury wants effective capital gains tax [15 March 2024]
                    “Treasury considers it unlikely that landlords will pass on the tax change through lower rents in the short run,” the statement said.
                    …
                    There was a sting in the tail. The Government is also reducing the 10-year bright-line test, which taxes the capital gains made on rental properties if they are sold within 10 years, back to just two years. Treasury said the Government should can that idea and double the bright-line test to 20 years, or consider extending it even longer, turning it into a capital gains tax on rental property in all but name.

          • Patricia Bremner 1.1.2.2.3
            18 March 2024 at 8:43 pm

            Not so many dead people Alwyn. That is something to show.

            • KJT 1.1.2.2.3.1
              19 March 2024 at 6:52 am

              That is what really incensed the, laughably called "centre right" .

              The country had an example of the effectiveness of Government putting people first, ahead of 'their' profits. A people working together for good, instead of for the increased wealth of those with the real power.

              That can never be forgiven, and must be rubbished as soon as possible. Propaganda mouthpieces and "useful idiots" endlessly chanting the same memes about "economic incompetence" and ‘debt" until people internalise them. Funding and insidious support for US style cookers, to undermine the narrative of the COVID effort. Before we, as a country, remember how "looking after each other" once gave us one of the highest standards of living in the world.

              The concerted effort of the right, the enquiry being one, to destroy any idea of the real achievements of the Adern Government over COVID and after, is to ensure that "never again"! are "people to be put before profit." And never again are we to be reminded of the effectiveness of "Governments power for good" if a Government chooses to use it.

              “How dare a Government prioritise the ongoing welfare of the people they represent, over short term corporate advantage”.

        • Anne 1.1.2.3
          18 March 2024 at 11:53 am

          I have zero sympathy for those who voted for NAct and NZ1. Your example BG is a case in point.

          The media are well aware of the CoC's lies and deceit, but they seem afraid to say so – with the surprising exception of Tova O'Brien. It will be interesting to see if her career is affected in any way.

          It's happened before. The most notable: when Muldoon banned Tom Scott from media interviews and his speeches – not sure now whether that included the Parliamentary Press Gallery. Fortunately Scott's brilliant writing ability in particular saved his career from disintegrating.

          • James Simpson 1.1.2.3.1
            18 March 2024 at 12:03 pm

            Why do you have zero sympathy for those voters?

            We need a large number of them and come back and vote for Labour/Green if we ever want to see the back of this government.

            6 months in and not many of them (if any) seem like they are in a hurry to move left.

          • Bearded Git 1.1.2.3.2
            18 March 2024 at 2:16 pm

            I'm reading Tom Scott's autobiography at the moment. Looking forward to the parts where he meets Muldoon.

        • Ad 1.1.2.4
          18 March 2024 at 6:00 pm

          …how history gets written by election victors

    • AB 1.2
      18 March 2024 at 10:44 am

      Not sure it works like that Ad. There is virtually nothing Hipkins could do at the moment that would get "mainstream cut-through" – unless it's something that reflects badly on him, the Labour Party or the left generally.
      To view the media as a neutral sounding board ignores most of what we know about it. It will change, but the coalition of crackpots has to go even more bonkers and sustain it for longer. Hipkins should still do it of course – no white flags should be raised.

      • weka 1.2.1
        18 March 2024 at 10:47 am

        why at the moment?

        • AB 1.2.1.1
          18 March 2024 at 3:04 pm

          Why at the moment?

          Because most of the the media don't really have any interest in ideas. They are like sports commentators. So for now it's all about how Labour got smashed in an election – will they change leaders, how do they recover, how is their morale, are their fans deserting them, blah blah blah. That story will just get tired – and it eventually becomes that National are underperforming, making mistakes, missing tackles while Labour have new talent and is the new talent up to it, etc. So much of it is rooted in the primacy of personalities over ideas. In that sort of culture, losers are meant to be contrite and ask for forgiveness.

      • Ad 1.2.2
        18 March 2024 at 11:34 am

        Oh please. What it simply requires is for Hipkins to try. Here's how Hipkins looked so far from Steve Braunias on the weekend:

        'Winning an election does not entitle you to act like a dictatorship.

        To act like a dictatorship, you need to lose an election. One of the first things I did after leading Labour to a catastrophic loss is that I gathered the few MPs lift standing, and said to them:

        "You have no fight left in you. You are without hope. You are weak, in a bad way, finished. The last thing you want to do right now is mount any kind of leadership challenge.

        Just go about your business. Walk in circles. Hide in dark corners. The important thing to remember is that I am the leader of the Labour Party. I will always be the leader of the Labour Party. You are feeling sleepy. Close your eyes. I am the leader of the Labour Party. I will always be the leader of the Labour Party. Sleep now. Sleep."

        It's worked really well.'

        The contrast to Chloe Swarbrick last week could not be starker.

        You only have to imagine what an integrated State of the Nation summit with Labour, Greens and TMP would look like.

        Unfortunately that's not happening so imagining is all we've got.

        • AB 1.2.2.1
          18 March 2024 at 3:12 pm

          What it simply requires is for Hipkins to try

          It does require that – as I said. But for a period after a heavy election defeat, that is usually not enough. And it’s part of the broader culture which the media reflects back at us – recent losers are worthless, everything they say is to be discounted. Every story, as I said above, is about how down and out they are.

          • Ad 1.2.2.1.1
            18 March 2024 at 3:52 pm

            If that really is the case then all of those Opposition MPs should resign.

            But I know they are capable of more.

            • Phillip ure 1.2.2.1.1.1
              19 March 2024 at 12:25 pm

              I also think the voters don't want to know about labour..

              ..and what they have to say….

              They are losers…thrown out of office for non-delivery..

              ..just yesterday..in term terms..

              And I think this will last for about 18 months..

              ..when hopefully a coherent coalition of the left will be standing there…

              ..all primed and ready to go..

              ..and of course hipkins must keep on trying..

              ..but until then he is pretty much pissing into the prevailing political winds..

              ..I see ms. swarbrick as the banner-flyer for now..

              ..as I said..interest in what labour has to say couldn't be lower..

              ..this leavened with a degree of impatience..that they are even speaking…

      • bwaghorn 1.2.3
        18 March 2024 at 12:58 pm

        I don't know, calling out winstink for acting like the drunk uncle is gold,

    • Mike the Lefty 1.3
      18 March 2024 at 12:30 pm

      Even more curious is that he said there is a 5.6 billion dollar hole facing the present government, which Finance Minister Nicola Willis denies.

      Obviously you can't go ahead with tax cuts with such a hole, assuming you don't want to create a banana republic economy, so who's right?

      Is Peters giving us advanced notice that National's biggest promise – tax cuts – will no longer be possible?

      Or is he just mouthing off, talking a load of nonsense because the audience that he addressed yesterday wouldn't know the difference?

      Either is possible.

      • Ad 1.3.1
        18 March 2024 at 1:42 pm

        Peters today retorts that "Hipkins would get drunk on a wine biscuit."

        That's Winston's Cossie Club comedy schtick slipping from a groove to a rut.

        • Phillip ure 1.3.1.1
          19 March 2024 at 1:39 pm

          I thought that both hipkins's 'drunk uncle' jibe..

          ..and peter's ' drunk on a wine biscuit' retort..

          ..had comedic merit…

  2. Anker 2
    18 March 2024 at 9:43 am

    https://theplatform.kiwi/opinions/sex-is-real

    I realize that many of you will not want to read this excellent article byYvonne Van Dongen because it was published on The Platform.

    So I will summarize.

    Puberty Blockers have been banned for under 18 years in the UK (unless as part of a high quality research study). These drugs are prescribed off label and there is concerning long term side effects and questions over the impact of these drugs on the developing brain.

    The Wpath Files. A whistle blower supplied to journalists video chat and email correspondance between members of Wpath, showing that these members of WPath know that kids can't consent to treatments such as PBs, that side effects of hormones include liver cancer.

    Comedy genius Graham Lineham who wrote the IT crowd and Father Ted visited NZ and despite having many media interviews lined up, the msm didn't cover his visit. Why? Because he stood up against trans rights activists, speaking up for women and girls and against gender affirming care and was disgracefully de platformed.

    • Visubversa 2.1
      18 March 2024 at 12:23 pm

      You mean the MSM that cheerfully reported various reckons that Posie Parker was a transphobe and Nazi adjacent? That amplified the voices of several politicians that were happy to do a bit of bandwagon jumping, and wave their virtue signaling and ignorant opinions around?

      The same cowardly and captured bunch that called Shane Toko (Ashley) Winter a woman and showered him with female pronouns all through his trial, conviction and sentencing for the torture and murder of a vulnerable young woman?

      • Anker 2.1.1
        19 March 2024 at 11:08 am

        That same media Visubversa! There will be questions asked surely when what some are suggesting is the greatest medical scandal ever, i.e. the medical transition of vulnerable children is exposed. Such as "why didn't we know?" However that excuse wears a bit thin, where sites such as the Standard have allowed us to exercise our free speech rights and allowed us to publish GC stuff and I truly thank the Standard for that

  3. Drowsy M. Kram 3
    18 March 2024 at 11:59 am

    Forget about “the technical numbers” – it's all about "the vibe" laugh

    NZ out of recession, after stronger bounce-back than expected
    [21 Sept 2023, @ 2:08 minutes]
    Forget the numbers, she [Willis] says, it's about the vibe.
    "It feels like a recession, and we can have a big debate about the technical numbers…"

    Nicola Willis: I'd quit as finance minister if my tax cut plan fails

    Winston Peters signals no compromise on NZ First election commitments [18 March 2024]
    New Zealand First leader [and Deputy PM] Winston Peters has signalled he will not compromise on the roll-out of his election commitments, despite warning the government is short billions of dollars.

    Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nicola Willis denies the $5.6 [billion] shortfall, but says she won't guarantee promised tax cuts will arrive in July until the policy has been discussed by Cabinet.

    There seems to be some debate about just how big Willis' hole is – hope more service cuts and infrastructure project cancellations aren’t on the cards.

    • Phillip ure 4.1
      19 March 2024 at 1:50 pm

      Seeing as (going on his words) it is luxons life- mission to give tax cuts to the poor/working class ..(he never mentions the already rich..who of course are lined up for the lions share of those cuts)..

      And it seems they haven't got enough dosh to do this..

      So here's an idea:..

      Yes..give the cuts to those he says he cares the most about..

      ..but don't give them to the already rich…who don't really need them anyway..

      ..they are just being greedy/uncaring bastards..if they claim they do..

      Anyhoo..that will take care of much of that fiscal hole..eh..?

      ..and will bring luxons life mission to fruition..

      ..win win..all around..

  5. Ed1 5
    18 March 2024 at 4:09 pm

    NAct1st talk about reducing taxes, but I do wonder how much greater net income someone on average earnings will have after paying 15% higher rates (either directly or through rent), and paying higher costs for running a vehicle. Then a similar calculation for a beneficiary having the same increase in rates, but higher costs for public transport (and even more if a child was getting free rides . . .

    Did National follow through on putting charges back on prescriptions?

    • bwaghorn 5.1
      18 March 2024 at 5:16 pm

      It's national the bottom 75% will get a block of cheese at best, while the 25% get huge amounts ,

  6. randal mcmurphy 6
    18 March 2024 at 7:16 pm

    big banner headlines in todays WAirarapa Times Age. $375 Million to maintain the wairarapa railway line. how many owners have NZ Rail had since 1984 and why has there been no maintenance done till now?