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6:00 am, March 20th, 2023 - 78 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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One of the best videos I have seen on the Kaikoura lights phenomena from back in the day.
This was one of the most difficult to explain UFO incidents ever. The lights were sighted by numerous witnesses and observed on several radar installations, and filmed by a news camera crew. The explanations that were put forward were never convincing in the slightest.
I am a UFO sceptic, in that I don't make the huge leap to assume that any unexplained sighting was aliens from outer space. But this event was fascinating.
Bruce Carey includes the Kaikoura Lights in one of his many folk songs. Great song. The plane involved is now a static display opposite Marlborough Airport.
2023 New Zealand's first ever climate change election?
"….the 2023 election would be a climate election." The Green Party Co-leader and Climate Change Minister, James Shaw
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/486276/greens-lay-down-climate-change-election-challenge-to-other-parties
Not before time!
We cannot, simply cannot, continue to expect our economic well-being to be expressed in GDP growth percentages!
If we are to have a snowball’s hope in hell of surviving what’s coming, we need to begin by throwing out the old and tired capitalist notions of a profit-driven way out of this catastrophe.
Put simply, people cannot continue to engage the way they have been – the overseas holiday every year, the multiple (7?) houses, the Sherman tank SUVs deemed necessary to drive the kids to school.
These changes will be forced upon us soon enough and will impact the poor, but also the entitled rich, who will, perhaps naturally, be loth to give up their privileges!
Sustainability necessitates down-sizing everything – from one’s expectations and wants, to the size of houses we build, the vehicles we drive, the things we do in our leisure.
If we don’t begin to adapt quickly (and even if we do) it’s going to be a rocky couple of decades – and we humans may not emerge from the end of them.
The Greens are so right – the ’23 election must be about climate!
Children as prizes of war. Nice.
/
https://twitter.com/HeidiReports/status/1637526898963087361
Joe 90 trolling his daily dump of anti russian rhetoric for us gee thanks joe !!
What should be obvious to anyone paying attention is that Ukraine is divided into two basic sectors the western part comprising of bandera revering nationalists and the eastern part comprising of russian speaking separatists .They are at war with each other and have been for years !!!!! The people of the donbass voted overwhelmingly to join with the russian federation so why on earth would Russia send at risk or bereaved children back to their oppressors ???
Given that actual war criminals of whom the list is very long walk freely especially in the US and Britain the ICC is a sick joke and these absurd charges brought upon Putin and his childrens commisioner just reinforces to me how easily these institutions can be manipulated .Reminds me of the OPCW !!
Even from the perspective of finding the safest place to put the children sending them to the western part of the country would make no sense whatever as no part of Ukraine is safe it being a war zone !!
Thanks in large part to American interventionalism Ukraine as a whole is now a basket case almost entirely dependent on US and euro funding to function on the most basic level .Its energy systems are in tatters its industry largely destroyed huge numbers of its men dead or wounded millions displaced ironic indeed that that the ICC decides to do this on the 20th anniversary of the destruction of Iraq .!!
please stop having a go at other commenters. You can make political comment against whatever Joe posts without attacking him.
What should be obvious to anyone
paying attentionobtaining their information from Russian propaganda sources is that Ukraine is divided into two basic sectors the western part comprising of bandera revering nationalists and the eastern part comprising of russian speaking separatists .They are at war with each other and have been for years !!!!! The people of the donbass voted overwhelmingly to join with the russian federation so why on earth would Russia send at risk or bereaved children back to their oppressors ???FIFY
A lot of lies to unpack there. For example, in an actual free referendum on Ukrainian independence (1991), the Donbass region voted overwhelmingly (>80%) for independence from Russia. Only later Russian gunpoint referendums gave the results you point to. Try going to Russian-occupied Ukraine today, walk around with a Ukrainian flag and say you support Ukrainian independence – see how things work out for you.
..so why wouldn’t Russia send at risk or bereaved children back to their families?
Lots of video starting to show up of fresh Ukrainian mechanised formations concentrating. A counter-attack is in the offing and the decisive engagement of this war is at hand. Any significant defeat for the Russians means the end for Putin.
Best of luck and God speed to the AFU. May the Russians be routed completely and this tragic and unnecessary war brought to a speedy and victorious conclusion.
Great optimism. I struggle with being optimistic about Ukraine.
Good to see Finland getting the nod from Turkey for NATO accession.
Also great to see European Parliament pushing for Moldova to to get into the EU.
https://emerging-europe.com/news/eu-again-heaps-praise-on-moldova-but-is-it-any-closer-to-membership/
I don't know if the Ukrainians can mount a successful offensive, but if this war is to be brought to a decisive and just conclusion that is what is needed. A ceasefire on current positions would simply see round three of this war against Russian imperialism start up again in five years.
Their win over Kherson was pretty amazing. I'm optimistic that the Finland NATO accession and the Moldova accelerated EU membership would give Russia pause.
I often wonder what the pro-Russian fanbois here who want a Russian victory think the Poles plan to do with their brand new, 300,000+ army armed to the teeth with latest and best of everything.
I'll tell them. If the Ukraine loses and becomes a ravanchist state thirsting for revenge against Russia, the inevitable next round of these wars in 2028-30 will feature a formidable Polish army in an alliance with the Ukrainian military attacking Russia. That would be another bloodbath. Honestly, if you want the least amount of killing, you want to see Putin killed and this war end in a defeat for Russia as soon as possible.
nailed it sanctuary
Alternatively, what's happening now is Europe slowly sucking the economic life out of Russia over the next decade like a Tarantula with a sparrow. Putin seems even less likely to leave than Erdogan.
No NATO country including Poland is going to start a shooting war with Russia unless they are provoked by attack and trip NATO Article 5. All sides know there's no turning back from that.
Read a piece recently about the lasting peace between long time foes France and Germany being achieved by denazification, food, societal and governance policies and restoration of the West German economy during a ten year occupation.
The author concluded anything less would invite rounds three, four, etc, from Russia.
I wonder what processes are being applied within Cabinet in their decision making ??When we get such crap outcomes. All good for a potential $4b project to now ballon into $15.7b and it is still being considered. Meanwhile in Dunedin the scope of the new hospital (MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE) is reduced due to cost overruns. How some supporters within Labour must be hanging their heads in shame that their party can make so poor a decision !!!!! But some will support no matter what – Any mirrors within their houses or can they not cope looking at themselves in the mirrow???
https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/12/21/major-cuts-to-new-dunedin-hospital-design-as-budget-blows-out/
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/486111/lake-onslow-pumped-hydro-scheme-cost-estimate-rises-almost-300-percent-to-15-point-7b
Rather Labour with their rebuild of Dunedin hospital, than National with their underfunding of health during their disastrous 9 years!
Cutting the capacity of the new Dunedin hospital IS underfunding under Labour- Some time in the future we will lament that the hospital was NOT built to original specifications – So tell that to those in Dunedin – Perhaps try to add to the discussion than your crap response- Even better have those labour supporters communicate to the MP's of their short sightedness. Your snide response sums up – That will promote improved decision making ??
And to Peter any project should have contingency items and cost overruns included in the scope – And a Good govt ?? should have in general funds additional $$ to cover such projects – Do other big projects stop short does a road that has cost overruns end short of its intended finish point ?? CRAP DECISION to not build to specs. and this perhaps sums it up and may answer your question"The deep dive revealed projects falling foul of basic skills gaps and rose-tinted expectations.
“The gaps in capability included business case development, defining project budgets, scheduling, and stakeholder management.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mental-health-building-projects-delayed-amid-soaring-costs/3WVHD2PLDFF23AL5ABW5WJURVU/
How many years was the Dunedin hospital rebuild talked about under the Natz?
Labour may not be able to afford the provide all the beds planned for, but what they're delivering is light years ahead of the useless National Party!
How’s that for a 'crap response?'
Why do cost overruns happen? How can cost overruns be avoided?
All them Consultants and Bureaucrats gotta be engaged and paid BEFORE a shovel can be put in the ground //
Then there is the health and safety gravy train
… and the backhanders
… and the vested interests
It is a wonder that projects do not cost far more!
Then there's the very human phenomenon of desiring the absolute maximum features for the budget available, and the expectation that the process will be have an optimistically smooth process. Happens with every human purchasing decision from a toothpick to a nuclear power plant.
Citation or link needed!
“Then there is the health and safety gravy train” cue Simeon Brown’s latest tweet!
No possibility of citations for it is so well hidden that NZ is known to be one of the least corrupt countries! Have been on major projects and seen how much stuff walks off the site to supply the locals ….
Bullshit.
So there's a few things that have made costs go up fast in the last 10 years, in no particular order:
– New Zealand has very few design experts who can design new hospitals, underground railway systems, airports, or other major complex infrastructure. They don't happen often enough to have a permanent pool of expertise in country. So consultant designers are imported for the project, and that means they cost a lot.
– New Zealand has 100% employment of those who can work on complex infrastructure. Any specialist position is in hot demand, so they are regularly poached to larger more reliable and better paid projects elsewhere. So constructors are imported for the project, and that means they cost a lot.
– New Zealand has few mines, one aluminium smelter, one steel smelter, near-zero local bitumen, and just a couple of precast concrete pipe and beam manufacturers. So when there's a boom on as there has been since the Christchurch earthquakes, not everyone can get what they want at the price they thought they'd fixed several years back. So materials get hard to find and more expensive.
– China's trade war with the USA. We used to be able to get cheap materials and labour out of China, but it's much harder now. We've seen what China's done to Australian trade and yet we aren't diversifying our supply chain fast enough. So when China-US tensions rise, we struggle to fulfil our orders.
– COVID delays to programme on major infrastructure. You can't get replacement workers, teams stay shut at home, stuff doesn't get built but teams still get paid – which means costs of the project go up.
– Invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Simple materials scarcity in steel, natural gas to make steel, coal to make steel, international shipping redirected. Major supply constraints. Completely a sellers market for key construction commodities.
– Basic NZ isolation from shipping supply chain. We're a tiny, out-of-the-way place with one city of note, reliant on 3 shipping companies, and a stop-start major infrastructure pipeline. Shipping companies will get stuff to us at their convenience not ours, so the local teams wait, and get paid for waiting. So the price of the project goes up.
Believe it or not New Zealand's public sector in major infrastructure has few procurement disasters, is used to being disciplined with little money, and has taken on more massive infrastructure tasks in the last decade than at any time since the early 1980s. We've improved much of NZ's core infrastructure in Christchurch, Auckland, and Hamilton out of sight to what it was 15 years ago.
We are also more adept at using the right procurement model for high risk jobs, which is why we use commercial alliances for the $300m+ jobs.
Just don't expect a fixed price contract for anything over $5m.
Those days are gone.
STILL no reason for the hospital to have its capabilities fall short of original design and original announcement from the govt – just EXCUSES and we the public will suffer due to shortsighted decision to save a few $$
https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/new-dunedin-hospital-receives-additional-110-million-funding
It's more poor communications from MoH and the commissioning team, than Dunedin having something stolen from their scope. Dunedin has the best institutions, including health institutions, per capital in the entire country. It's going to stay at 130,000 population for as far as the eye can see.
Queenstown-Lakes is on track for 60,000 residents by 2030 plus 100,000 visitors per day. Queenstown-Lakes is a boomtown with health services that are keeping up by no measure – unless you go private.
So the best place for another hospital after the Dunedin one needs to be in Queenstown.
You missed the most important one: Capitalism 101, Never waste a good crisis to not put your prices up.
You think the state has a magical Big Rock Candy Mountain stockpile of bridges, bridge designers, roading materials, house materials, electrical substations, transmitters, qualified workers, and fibre optic cable just hanging about on trees? And somethingsomethingcapitalismbad?
If you need a job I've got one for you. Otherwise just dry up.
Q & AS last Sunday had an informative discussion about large project costs which covered many issues.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/clips/why-do-infrastructure-budgets-always-blow-out
Yes Ross Copland makes good points there.
@Ad. An excellent real world insight as to why NZ has geographic and structural issues that will always put us at a disadvantage. We should be more honest about these and confront better ways to manage them.
In my case I found that as an automation engineer it was rare to find continuity of work in a given industry so that I could become really good at it. I was expected to bounce around from infrastructure, to dairy, to wood processing and then food and beverage. I could say it was never boring, but then looking back my productivity was crap.
By contrast I did a sub-sub-contract in 2003 for a large US based sawmilling OEM in Australia commissioning a massive new mill in NSW. The automation team consisted of about 8 engineers. These guys were not just specialised into that industry, but onto specific machines. A couple did the primary breakdown line, another the five saw edgers, another few on the shape sawing line (absolutely amazing machine) and then someone else on the sorter/bin machines at the back-end. They were all incredibly good at what they were doing – but they never crossed over outside of their narrow specialty. Of course this was only possible because they worked within one of the world's larger OEM suppliers and had the continuity of work to support it. It was a great experience working with such highly competent and efficient people.
The shortage of professionally and technically competent people is not going to get better anytime soon. Globally the boomer generation is retiring, while universities seem to be determined to undermine the quality and attractiveness of their STEM courses at every turn. The entire science and engineering enterprise needs to take a long hard look at whether conventional approaches are serving us well – personally I think there is a good deal of room for improvement.
For instance the bog standard NZS 39xx contracting model always struck me as based more on a legalistic conflict model rather than good project management principles. A quick search pulled this up:
Is this new contracting model likely to gain traction – or is it more hopeful than real?
But otherwise everything you say with spades on. Even Australia is not immune to many of these influences.
You did well to get out.
There's some clients that are in such a hurry at the moment like Auckland Airport that they have to go Cost Plus or worse Measure and Value. That domestic terminal is a disgrace.
Some traditional contracting here and Victoria and NZSW particularly in the big vertical builds is theocratic: the client is the arm, the contractor is the hammer, the subbie is the chisel, and you just keep smashing down as hard as you can until you get the shape you want. It's like contractor capitalism, monarchic rule, patristic families, and theocratic rule were structurally identical.
But what's building up at the moment on the East Coast of New Zealand is one of the largest alliances we will see. I understand it will be run by Crown Infrastructure Partners and will roll transport, broadband, electricity and housing into a single delivery alliance. Not as big as Christchurch's SCIRT but certainly the biggest thig that will ever happen to the East Cost in focus and in the $5-$6b range.
Alliances are good at encompassing risk and quick-changing priorities, should big roadblocks occur in one option. They are thankfully different to the PPP format that did Transmission Gully.
I have had two young people I know well in the last two years go through the mechatronics courses in Canterbury and Auckland Schools of Engineering: both can't wait to get out of New Zealand due to exactly what you describe.
I cannot tell whether to laugh or cry at your third para – it so resonates with my experience across the EPC space. The bigger engineering companies truly operate like dynasties – benign for the most part, but rarely inspired.
I commissioned a major project here in Aus back in 2018 where Bechtel was the prime EPC. Getting onto the job it soon became apparent to me that far too many arse-polishers, none of whom would ever get to site, had created an insanely over-complex system that was a nightmare to work with. If you keep doing big projects eventually your luck runs out – and while nothing terrible happened I was very happy to take my money and finish my last rotation.
Without giving away too much detail – last year I was highly amused to then be dragged into advising to a much smaller, more agile company who had been called in to completely rework that entire system into something sane and maintainable. Which we did very nicely thank you – and at a fraction of the original cost.
Your comment around contracting alliances is encouraging – it feels very much like the right direction and maybe between this post cyclone and SCIRT experience something good will come of it.
cost overuns cannot be avoided. with commodity prices fluid, looking into the future is impossible. heathcare is also one of the fastest changing and most expensive things to build. go into an operating room and guess how much everything costs. by the time you walk out, some of the tech will be out of date, and the price will have increased on others.
I always enjoy the Rod Oram series and this one on "Farming: The next steps" shows just how new directions can solve the problems of the sustainability of farming. Specially re regenerative cropping. Stop moaning farmers and consider your options.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/farming-the-next-steps?utm_source=Newsroom&utm_campaign=d2862a8bdd-Daily_Briefing+20.03.2023&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71de5c4b35-d2862a8bdd-95522477
yea..its a DNA thing. Also….their fathers father (and farther back) did the same. So…like dinosaurs, they are not likely to change, until "something" happens. Hope its not an asteroid.
Meanwhile Our Earth heats…and Rivers,Streams,Waterways and WETLANDS die !
farmers aren't genetically programmed to not change. In my own family there were huge changes in farming practices from my grandfather's generation to my uncle's.
It's true that some farmers are just stuck in their thinking and way of farming. But many farmers want to change and are prevented from that because of the banks and farm advisors. Industry orgs are a huge problem too.
In every area of NZ there are farmers trying to do the right things. They deserve our support instead of this constant negativity and prejudice.
And go for it !
Rod Oram found another supportive moaning prophet.
The reason farmers went wholesale into dairy conversions by hundreds of thousands of hectares with few constraints is because of the original Fonterra legislation which required Fonterra to take all milk produced.
Fonterra and its DIRA legislation are mostly to blame for 25 years of accelerated dairy impact, not the farmers themselves. They just reacted to the market set by the legislation.
The dairy industry is our one export mainstay that survived COVID, keeping up our governments' tax intake that then get to redistribute. And did so better than any other industry by a country mile. I'm sure happy to slam them too but Rod Oram should start his first sentence with:
Thank God for the dairy farmers.
god bless the dairy farmers.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/131519960/thousands-of-birds-die-at-important-wetland-from-deadly-disease-caused-by-pollution
Never underestimate the ability of water fowl to pollute the area they live in – especially when numbers rise due to a very good breeding year – before they are culled by duck shooters in May.
Stagnant, or slow-flowing, water is a breeding ground for algae that use duck poo as fertiliser, and it’s the type of water that ducks tend to be found in. Excessive quantities of duck poo can cause algal overgrowth which starves the water of oxygen, killing off natural food sources for water birds. And it’s algae that is responsible for harbouring the bacteria that cause Avian Botulism.
Are you suggesting that water fowl are a significant factor in the collapse of the Whangamarino ecosystem?
It is certainly something to be investigated as a contributory factor given the reports of large numbers of dead ducks and reported lack of water through flow.
All very well to “bless” dairy farmers but the effects are often more nuanced.
ok, so that's you making shit up again.
There are also large numbers of Coi Carp there which have a hand in increase of algal blooms.
https://www.tekauwhatavillage.co.nz/555-2/
I've changed your formatting. Please put quotes from offsite in quotation marks or use the " tag when making the comment, thanks. This is so it’s easy to see what are you words and what are someone else’s.
The algal blooms are long term and caused by a range of other factors and then there is the sewage. The Lake drains into the wetlands.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/125527768/councils-three-years-of-discharge-into-one-of-nations-most-polluted-lakes
Yeah! The birds dun it to themselves! Shitting in their own nests! Stupid birds!
Flying cows, but you can't even eat them.
Bit like humans?
Do those giving praise to dairy farmers via a deity…ever pause to consider that fonterra is our number one polluter…and that seven of the other top ten polluters are meat processing companies…?..(stuff published list about 2 wks ago..)
Does that matter..?..d'yareckon..?.
Seeing as we are groping around for ways to lower our very high emissions..?
Seems a bit counterintuitive..eh..?..channeling a deity for that..?
Probably coincidence…
As the old saying goes:
Unless you are your own farmer – and grow everything you eat ….
… and use deities a bit sparingly … say once a day – or once a week?
Lordie I just love Elizabeth Warren.
It would be so good if we had any politician in NZ who would hold our own banks to account like she does.
https://www.politico.com/video/2023/03/19/elizabeth-warrens-media-blitz-on-svb-in-60-seconds-860987
If Labour get turfed this election, current Minister of Revenue Deborah Russel could if she downed 2 shots of vodka and a red cape with a strong following wind and some integration of her Medici political theory and Australian tax law practise, actually work with Genter to turn into an effective anti-bank pro wealth-tax hit squad.
Granted that's a few caveats.
Windfall profits tax funding an insurance scheme for loans to business (permanent and larger scale than the pandemic era scheme).
Spell your idea out more.
A windfall profits tax on banks to fund
1. an insurance scheme for the lending of money to business by banks/financial institutions.
Business loans are expensive (because of risk), and so people are limited to loans against their property or issuing shares (which have had poor take up). This causes business problems because of the swings between property speculation binges and high OCR/bank interest rates.
2. interest free loans to farmers to ensure improved farm environment standards without higher operating cost.
3. other …
Background
2023 changes to the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme
https://www.wk.co.nz/blog/new-zealand-government-announces-small-business-cashflow-scheme-and-business-finance-guarantee-scheme-bfgs/
https://www.wk.co.nz/blog/big-changes-to-the-new-zealand-business-finance-guarantee-scheme/
Original foundation in 2020 as part of the COVID response
https://www2.deloitte.com/nz/en/pages/tax/articles/business-finance-guarantee-scheme-launched.html
https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/covid-19/business-finance-guarantee-scheme
The use of windfall profits to fund the scheme takes it out of the category of something to be afforded out of budget revenues.
And it is related to financing business development (investment to improve productivity) and farm environment upgrade.
I just love these background "Downstream" broadcasts by Aaron Bastani.
Here, Roger Hallam – of Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil fame – talks of climate change not as a technocratic problem, but as a consequence of the pathology of global capitalism and it's elites.
Jon Stewart does an excellent segment on the SVB collapse and its causes.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/131476321/hardest-decision-of-our-lives-foster-parents-return-moana-to-state-care
The usless racist mother wins.
Just had the link to post Bwagon.
This will be devastating for Moana and for the Smiths as well.
OT should be ashamed of themselves. As you said the useless racist mother wins
Can you imagine if a white child abuser want there children removed from a loving Maori family,because culture!!??
And when the OT 'care' fails (as it so often does) – I devoutly hope that the blame will be sheeted home to the biased OT staff and the taxpayer funded rort that is the ongoing appeal process. No reason for Moana's 'mother' to stop appealing – since she wasn't paying one cent for the ongoing legal costs. No reason for OT to stop supporting these appeals, since none of the money was coming out of their funding.
Sadly, not one of them will step up and take ownership of their decision and the consequences of it.
Given that there has never been any question at all of Moana returning to her mother (which speaks volumes about the quality of parenting her biological mother is able to provide) – why should she have any rights at all to appeal Moana's placement (given that it was demonstrably safe, and secure)?
End result. A little girl is re-traumatized by the system which is supposed to have her welfare at heart.
Yes..it is hard for all..but she will be living with her brother..
Surely that has to count..?..for both of them..?
She would be fully bonded to her foster parents , the scarring caused by ripping her away will not be healed by be with her brother
I agree re bonding etc..
I just see the brother as being a factor that a lot of weight was put upon to reach that conclusion…
But hard for everyone…
It won't be asking for bail that worries him. It’ll be the DNA sample.
https://twitter.com/realTuckFrumper/status/1637469490282917889
In the believe it, or not, category an organisation of independent school providers is suing the government for discrimination.
Apparently they claim that the governments requirement for pay parity for teachers in their schools with those in kindergartens means the government is discriminating against older teachers – because the schools would rather fire them than pay them more money.
The move seems timed with recent release of National Party policy to increase funding to ECE's.
PS a certain family makes a lot of money from the schools and funds right wing radio.
Kim Hill had a long investigation this morning on Morning Report. She had CEO Simon Laub in a tangle. She was in classic mode. Touched on private profit making centres, like the Wrights.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018882478
A very good point that is obscured by gender and race debates: Solidarity
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/17/2158617/-Struggling-to-build-solidarity-across-lines-of-race-class-and-gender
Simon O'Connor must be a bit slutted that Ginny Anderson got Minister of Police.
But she's a fluent Te Reo speaker and neck deep in Treaty settlements and meth issues, plus 9 years with Police itself. Good choice PM Hipkins.
Why would a Nat MP be "slutted" at a Labour appointment?
Greg might be pissed off tho
A cool moment in the protest at Orewa last weekend
https://twitter.com/aotearoalib/status/1637205984635682816?s=61&t=4nyjBVbo16PbRZPJZdlgag