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6:00 am, February 22nd, 2012 - 63 comments
Categories: open mike -
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I have some respect for Roy Morgan’s poll results, but its commentary sucks.
The commentary on the latest results says “continuing strong support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party” even though it is down to 45.5%. Support for Key’s Coalition partners has apparently changed little even though the Maori Party has lost 25% of its support (1.5%) and ACT at 1% still needs National’s generosity to be relevant. United Future at 0.5% remains a haircut away from oblivion.
Support for Labour Party has increased 0.5% to 31% but 3.5% since last November’s election. The Greens are down a bit to 11.5%, (down 1.5%), New Zealand First is at 6% which is up from the last result but down from the election result, Mana is up slightly to 1% and who knows who the others are.
Confidence Rating is down 6 points to 127 — with 57% (down 4%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is “heading in the right direction” compared to 30% (up 2%) that say New Zealand is “heading in the wrong direction.” I predict that these particular statistics will continue to worsen over the next few months.
Over all,
NACT + MP + UF = 48.5%
L + G + NZF + M = 49.5%
So the “continuing strong support for Prime Minister John Key’s Party” actually looks pretty flimsy. Someone should tell Gary Morgan.
I guess technically they are correct insofar as 45.5% vs 31% is still a large gap (though narrowing steadily). Actually I think Roy Morgan deserve some credit for at least attempting to gauge the relative position of the two potential governing blocs. Most of the NZ pollsters still insist on looking at their polls through the prism of FPP. At any rate Gary Morgan concludes his remarks with this statement:
“Overall support for the full National-led Government has dipped to 48.5% (down 0.5%), trailing the Opposition Parties (51.5%, up 0.5%). Worryingly for Key, this is the lowest level of support his broad-based Coalition has received since being elected to Government in November 2008.”
MS – Serious question. Do you believe that the state of NZ politics, as it reflects global politics, is in any way capable of turnin a sinking NZ around, and should people waste their time buying into the political system, which is blatantly defunct, and serving interests other than NZ?
If a few 10k more people had voted for the opposition rather than National, we wouldn’t be having asset sales discussions (or they would be radically different, if MP went ahead with them).
Hi Muzza
Of course I do. I would not be involved in politics otherwise. Although I agree that there are reasons to despair at the inertia and at the self serving behaviour of some of our fellow MPs.
Doing work at the local body or community level may turn out to be more important. And pressuring central government from that level to get its shit together re: transport systems and energy systems will be crucial.
The problem I see at central government level is that it only takes the Tories half the time to dismantle anything that the left tries to build. Knocking stuff down and cancelling stuff is always quicker than trying to build stuff up.
The other dynamic is that in national politics, a huge amount of time and energy is spent just trying to maintain, administer and manage a highly complex status quo. In a lot of ways that investment is a dead investment because the complex status quo today is completely unfit for the purpose that we will need it for in just a few years.
Actually I think “continuing strong support for Prime Minister John Key’s Party” is actually an accurate description of those figures.
Just because the supposed opposition bloc is 1 point above the governing bloc, doesn’t mean that the governing bloc doesn’t have strong support.
Do they ask people who did not vote to participate?
I would say that given the massive number that didn’t, citing support for either side of the same coin, is trite!
Not sure Lanth. In the past 5 months using Roy Morgan figures the nats have shed 10 percentage points. If you look at the graph there is a noticeable and sustained dip. If I was them I would be more than a little afraid …
Watched Bruce Robertson on tv re smoking , just triggered a question- what had happened to the drinking age? That was all go pre last years election and I have heard nothing since
I think the bill is still making its way through Parliament, and is due to be voted on this year sometime.
I dont drink that much myself, but it seem to be that the force behind the proposed changes seems to be more of a view that only those who are over 45, male and in the upper income bracket can hold their drink, and it needs to be made harder for everyone else to buy alcohol. The moral panic around ball season binge drinking springs to mind.
The levels of clinical and subclinical depression, and alcohol and other substance abuse in this society, are very very worrying.
Thanks for that
It appears another case where big business will direct social policy all for a $. I am sure that this will be a great distraction surprised it has not been promoted with the asset sales and the lack of public support over the govts blind at all cost following their ideology
Still think it is funny that we can currently drink at 18 but are unable to go to the casino until 20.
Our good wowser mate Dunne will be happy to raise the drinking age to 20….of course the kids will save all their money and buy shares in state assets instead of alcohol.
dunne a ‘wowser’..?
for years he has been a pimp for both the alcohol and tobacco companies..
..he isn’t known as peter dunhill for nothing..
phil@whoar.
Phil, he was at Uni, prick would not invest in a beer chiller for Steins….he then went to ALAC, always “Mr Moral”. I reckon if he has been in the pockets of the alcohol and fags industries as you state he must be the ultimate two faced “me firster” I take him to be.
So when did he give up Marajuana Bored.
Seconded!
Very bad form and typical of some of the stories coming from Ch’ch.
TVNZ, TV3 and Sky New Australia all cross live at 8 am for the commencement of the earthquake memorial service.
And nothing for 25 minutes. People on stage obviously ready for an 8 am start and no dignitaries. They didn’t arrive until 8:25.
I could only imagine people swearing in the Sydney newsroom that a 24 hour news channel was forced to broadcast what effectively was 25 minutes of music from the Army Band.
Who f’d up?
Worse for those watching TVNZ. 25 minutes of fill from Corin Dan. 25 uninterrupted minutes for Corin to talk shit.
Who f’d up?
All the broadcasters would be cursing at the loss of revenue from planned commercial breaks that were replaced with 25 minutes of the Army Band.
Couldn’t even give the right time to the media. Symbolic of the recovery?
Sure. Lets time everything to suit the media in future. If real world circumstances conspire to fuck it up, then hell, we’ll, we’ll….do something to teach that real world a lesson it will never forget. While we’re at it, lets stop the world spinning for the ad breaks. Wouldn’t want to miss any of that live action now, would we?
It’s not about pandering to the media. It’s about doing your job and doing it efficiently.
For an event like this, that you want broadcast to NZ and all those interested and concerned, then you either setup you own television network for which you call the shots (obviously out of the question) or you enter into a symbiotic relationship with the broadcaster in which you have to consider their needs.
Somebody didn’t do their job.
Jeez, William, no need to blow a foo foo valve. The ceremony was delayed to allow the many, many buses full of Chch citizens to get to Latimer Square. Normally, transport wouldn’t be a problem, but they had an earthquake down there a while ago which has made things a bit awkward for them. Sorry they let you down and I’m sure the mayor will make a formal apology to you in due course.
No need to be rude (or an ass for that matter).
“Jeez, William, no need to blow a foo foo valve.” – inferring an attitude not in evidence. I was passing comment that some had fucked up (which they had) and the implication for the broadcasters (which there were a number) and I said absolutely nothing about the implications on me (of which there were none). All of which makes your post thoroughly pointless.
In response to your patronising comment “they had an earthquake down there a while ago”, all things considered, (including earthquakes and moving people) planning should do just that, i.e. consider all things. If you can’t get people there on time then, in the planning stage, you push back the time and let the relevant parties know. Both of which they didn’t. Ergo, someone f’d up.
BTW, that little problem with the earthquake you mention, didn’t happen yesterday nor was this event unanticipated.
Word of advise, before you launch into conceited posts full of misplaced sarcasm you should take the time to read what is posted instead of making inferences, the evidence for which only exists in your head.
William, I’m glad you get it now and I hope you think before writing such drivel again in the future. Or at least do some fact checking first. In this case, it wouldn’t have been hard because the reason for the delay was announced at the time.
That minor effort to actually find out what was going would have stopped you jumping to dumbarse conclusions like ‘someone f’d up’. As it turns out, that someone was you.
Do you have a reading comprehension problem? Some sort of learning impairment I need to know about?
Are you not able to read what has been posted?
Or is it that once you take up an opposing position (and despite having been soundly corrected) you not capable of seeing the error in your reasoning?
– “William, I’m glad you get it no” – not the case. You have yet to show that I am in error.
– “Or at least do some fact checking first” – already done before I first posted. On the ccc website. So, again you make inferences from incorrect assumptions. Check it yourself. The announced schedule was that John Key et al would arrive at 7:50 am. That makes them 35min late. Are there other facts that I should be aware off. You know, the ones that exist in reality and not your congested imagination.
– “the reason for the delay was announced at time“. If you mean “announced this morning” than all I can say to you is “Thank you for demonstrating my point” [William takes a bow midst thunderous applause]. MY POINT EXACTLY! If it was announced this morning then it shows poor planning hence leaving the media with time to fill. Which, if I am not mistaken, (and I most certainly am not) was my original post.
– “That minor effort to actually find out what was going would have stopped you jumping to dumbarse conclusions like ‘someone f’d up’. As it turns out, that someone was you.”
This para shows that it is you who has jumped to a “dumbarse conclusion”
Dude, I heard it on the radio at about 10 minutes past 8. It’s not my problem that you leapt to a particularly stupid conclusion without bothering to find out what was going on. This was not the RWC transport fiasco, just a lot of Chch people wanting to show their respects, which caused a short delay that only you are the least bit upset about. And which you would have known if you’d bothered to check.
And by your friends, ye shall be known. When V32 comes to your defence, you’ve gotta know you have well and truly f’d up!
I have taken too much time to make my point perfectly clear and you still have been unable to refute it with anything other than some radio broadcast that just goes to prove my point.
Take a deep breath and re-read the posts.
If you’re still unhappy then go tell Oprah, she cares. Better still try Dr Phil – I’m sure he can help you.
You may have changed your name, but your attitude to disagreement is as foul as ever! Your vicious, scarcastic little wank of a post disgusts me. You are thoroughly in the wrong here, and not for the first or the last time. Your ego gets in the way of your common sense. 🙁
Hardly surprising – he’s adopted the moniker of Lord Haw-Haw
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Joyce
I’m having a bad day so I’ll “take the bait” on this one.
So, my moniker is William Joyce. That is what you know for certain.
What you do not know is whether that is my real name or a pseudonym. To assume one way or the other (without evidence) is, what those in the industry call, an “assumption”.
Error number 1
Someone in history, who was blessed with the name William Joyce, was a mouthpiece for a fascist regime. Therefore, anyone with a similar name must also be a fascist.
Error number 2
Reacting to someone because of the moniker they use….
Error number 3.
“Hardly surprising…” – was a response to Vicky32 as though she was responding to me. Rather I & Te Reo Putake think V32 was responding to Te Reo Putake. (I hope I have read this right, V32, as I can not see any number for posts)
Error number 4
Ok, time for bed, where I can dream of a world where rich financiers, economic technocrats, and artificial-humans (known as corporations) do not rule the world.
“I will treat corporations as pseudo-human beings when Texas executes one”
I wasn’t refereing to Joyce being a mouthpiece for a fascist regime (hmmm – works for the Nats too), but for his hyperbolic trolling the allied troops -something that seems to accommodate your ignorant tirades rather nicely.
Just listened to Key speak at the Chch commemorations. Now it could be me (I can hardly bear to listen to him at the best of times) but on radio at least his delivery seemed pretty flat, monotone and detached. Is he getting as tired of it all as some are suggesting?
He was going very very slow so as not to stumble all over himself while talking, but I think I still heard a few slip ups.
http://whoar.co.nz/2012/how-greece-could-take-down-wall-street/
“…In an article titled “Still No End to ‘Too Big to Fail,’” William Greider wrote in The Nation on February 15th:
“Financial market cynics have assumed all along that Dodd-Frank did not end “too big to fail” – but instead created a charmed circle of protected banks labeled “systemically important” – that will not be allowed to fail – no matter how badly they behave.”
That may be, but there is one bit of bad behavior that Uncle Sam himself does not have the funds to underwrite:
– the $32 trillion market in credit default swaps (CDS).
Thirty-two trillion dollars is more than twice the U.S. GDP and more than twice the national debt.
CDS are a form of derivative taken out by investors as insurance against default.
According to the Comptroller of the Currency, nearly 95% of the banking industry’s total exposure to derivatives contracts is held by the nation’s five largest banks: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs.
The CDS market is unregulated – and there is no requirement that the “insurer” actually have the funds to pay up.
CDS are more like bets – and a massive loss at the casino could bring the house down.
It could, at least, unless the casino is rigged.
Whether a “credit event” is a “default” triggering a payout is determined by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) –
– and it seems that the ISDA is owned by the world’s largest banks and hedge funds.
That means the house determines whether the house has to pay…”
(cont..)
phil-at-whoar.
Which simply means that when Greece defaults completely and takes bck their country , that the banks will fall like dominoes, as the CDS kick in , which then can’t be paid.
yep..!
..kinda looks like that..
phil@whoar.
Mr Dotcom granted bail when more evidence comes to hand. Breaking news – Stuff.
Someone (in the feedback) made a good point on Campbell Live this week about a NZ father dealing recovering his child after parental child abduction.
Our authorities are so quick and aggressive to do the bidding of the US when corporate copyright interests are at stake but are “do nothing” when comes to one of our own who has rights under the Hague Convention to recover his child.
compete, compete….the usual story, of making people fight amongst themselves…
interesting to read along with jennys post on slavery.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10787221
And that should tell him that injuries aren’t being reported. There’s absolutely no way that no injuries are occurring.
Also interesting to note that the article ended with a smear of the union and PR for the port in what was an obvious change to its flow.
The drive to get workplace injuries down actually used to be part of the Fonterra permanent employees KPI, as it related to their performance bonues…it may not longer be the case, but it certainly was. You can see the conflict of interest there!
Obviously it just leads to less reporting, which in turn allows the company to have undeserved health and safety status!
Michael Laws utterly unable to defend his extreme comments
Radio Live, Wednesday February 22, 2012
If you were so bored and stupid that you listened to Michael Laws this morning, you may have detected that he was more than a little distracted. Possibly because at the same time that he was raving about the need to sterilize “feral Māori”, he was engaging in an epistolary
exchange with this writer, i.e., moi….
1.) 9:36 AM
Dear Michael,
Why don’t you provide a lead for the Māori “ferals” and have yourself sterilized?
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey Breen
Northcote Point
2.) Michael Laws ml…@mediaworks.co.nz
9:50 AM
Because i don’t kill my children you wanker!
3.) 10:03 AM
Really? You were, and no doubt still are, a vituperative advocate of the mass killing of children in Palestine.
Yours in honest disclosure,
Morrissey
4.) Michael Laws ml…@mediaworks.co.nz
10:07 AM
Do you enjoy living on the sickness benefit with your mental condition or are you just FITH?
5.) 10:11 AM
Not a clever reply, my friend. No doubt you intimidate lots of people with personal attacks like that, just like you dismissed poor old “Walter” before the News.
But back to the point under discussion: how can you pretend to be an advocate for Maori children when you have such a filthy record of anti-Palestinian bigotry?
Still waiting for an intelligent answer…
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey
6.) 10:19 AM
Ditto: how do you justify killing Maori kids??
7.) 10:34 AM
I don’t. I think it’s terrible, but unlike you, I really mean that. Now when will you condemn the government-sponsored killing of Palestinian children?
Still waiting….
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey
8.) 10:36 AM
I don’t care about kids in another country, you moron, when its the kids here getting killed? YOU are part of the problem wasting your few mental resources on mad people half a world away.
9.) 10:42 AM
You “don’t care about kids in another country”? Then why did you so vociferously champion their destruction in January 2009?
Calling murdered children “mad” is not an intelligent answer, so could you have another, serious, attempt at an explanation?
Still waiting….
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey
10.) 10:43 AM
Actually if the Israelis had taken you out, I’d have cheered too
11.) 10:54 AM
Still not a serious or credible answer, my friend. You’re not making uneasy sycophants laugh in a Dunedin cafetaria now; you’re expected to back up your attitude with some kind of argument. So far you’ve said nothing of intelligence.
By the way, I thought it was amusing to hear you assert that you “don’t like people who make up history”; I remember the wandery, disconnected and confused potted history of Israel you gave on air at the bloodiest point of the massacre. You obviously got your “history” from a fantasy source—was it Joan Peters by any chance?
Still waiting, mate….
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey Breen
12.) 10:58 AM
False name false FB profile = fraud
13.) 11:03 AM
Jokes, personal attacks, now threats. You’ve really gone to the well, haven’t you?
Is a false Facebook profile as bad a crime as uttering?
Yours in amusement,
Morrissey
14.) 11:08 AM
You’re just a wanker: anonymous wanker hiding behind false identity. Sicko.Now fuck off …
15.) 11:13 AM
Quod erat demonstrandum.
Thanks, mate. Your programme’s a winner, and your callers are all as informed and intelligent as you. Well done, my friend.
Hilarious.
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey
16.) 11:18 AM
FRAUD
17.) 11:29 AM
“Fraud”? Really? Using a pseudonym on the internet is an accepted and almost universal practice. It’s hardly fraudulent. Forging documents when you’re an elected public figure is fraud.
Yours in amusement,
Morrissey
18.) 11:29 AM
FRAUD
19.) 11:37 AM
Seriously Michael, we try to resist inferring from the way in which you bawl into the microphone that you’re not very bright, but your tendentious and abusive e-mail correspondence just confirms it.
What will you do if you lose your radio spot?
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey
20.) 11:38 AM
FRAUD
21.) 11:50 AM
Shouting like that doesn’t really enhance your credibility, old chap. It’s easy to berate callers, and cut them off when you can’t mount a coherent argument against them, but in epistolary form like this, you end up just making yourself look kind of …. well, daft.
I do expect better than you’ve shown this morning—but then again, I’ve rarely heard you in better form. Which is a disappointment.
Yours sincerely,
Morrissey
22.) 11:50 AM
FRAUD
23.) 12:03 PM
Dear Alan Partridge,
A convicted utterer accusing someone of fraud. Kind of awesome.
Yours in amusement,
Morrissey
Well done Morrisey. Good to see someone taking it to Laws.
He can’t cut you off online—although his puerile chanting of “FRAUD” is the same kind of behaviour.
However, in print like this, his lack of integrity and his unwillingness to engage in debate are laid bare.
Nice one, Morrisey. Laws cuts a sad, lonely figure around Whanganui these days. Ignored in the council, laughed at in the local media and deleted from the phone contacts of most of his former allies. As for his shouty problems, Aqualung might be a good nickname for him now, because he looked a lot like the dero on the cover of the Tull album last time I saw him.
Is his wife still beating him?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8x_59EjZOs&feature=related
Here is the simple guide as to why Rangers FC are insolvent.
“Because we are the people” just about sums it up!
Classic, thanks Fisi.
The Environment Southland Council were provided with an opposing view of Lignite Mining today and while commercial interests get extended time to promote their projects we were initially allotted ten minutes. Considering the lignite projects will increase our carbon emissions by 20 million tons a year (from our current level of 70 million) this is no small issue and commercial interests should not be given preference over environmental concerns.
http://localbodies-bsprout.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/lignite-presentation-to-environment.html
Is Mr Shearer still leader of the Labour Party?
I haven’t heard him utter anything lately.
If this is his way of doing things differently, I don’t like it…
And yet Labour continues to rise in the polls, strongly suggesting that other people do like his way of doing things. Funny old world, etc…
I’m a bit perturbed as well. Was about to ask the same question.
Oh dear………………..
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/peter-gleick-admits-to-deception-in-obtaining-heartland-climate-files/
It was a lapse in judgement and there are consequences. However, it is seems to be the same problem people like him face.
The days when you could have a Ralph Nader presenting facts, and catching the forces of reaction by surprise, has gone.
The forces of the right, “special interest”, reaction, are well funded and resourced in their merciless and unethical dealings. There are a myriad of “think tanks” which don’t use their brain power to think about the facts but to think about ways to obfuscate, mislead, misdirect, misinform.
It leaves people like Peter Gleick with the temptation to cross the line to redress the power imbalance.
Ultimately, he repented of his action and confessed. If the position was reversed, the guilty think tank member would not confess but get booked on Fox News so he could attack “the liberals”, further muddy the waters and promote his new book.
The future for NZ schools under National.
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/feb/21/no-student-left-untested/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nybooks+%28The+New+York+Review+of+Books%29
Hells Bells Barry. Can you hear the applause from those whose support for National standards has been “Teachers should obey the Government. Teachers are just trying to protect poor teachers. etc ”
Just imagine what will happen once Key and Banks get to enact such a disgraceful program as described in your New York link. No wonder USA are steadily slipping down international scores.
Makes me sick to think that Min Ed Hekia Parata, who is going to introduce competition between teachers, will make the New York disaster our disaster.
Goldman Sacs involvement in getting Greece into EU, video for Gosman,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17108367
What programme was this?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/6462211/Police-complaint-over-election-programme
Whoops, someone at UF must have got their dates wrong.
Anonymous gives the Greek Government an ultimatum
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/anonymous-hacks-greek-ministry-website-demands-imf-withdrawal-threatens-it-will-wipe-away-all-c
CV even conservative MP’s in the UK are advocating for Greece to default and set up their own currency again.Otherwise as these Conservative MPs have pointed out Greece will never recover!
They are saying Greece will just keep getting worse and not better.
Why aren’t our Con artistive Trolls backing their opinion!
Where have all the Trolls gone!
Crikey! What next. And a default might be the best for the people. At least they would all be in the mess together instead of just the vulnerable.
Yes, William, I was responding to him, not you! No reply button under yours so my current reply is out of order…