Open mike 27/04/2023

3 comments on “Open mike 27/04/2023 ”

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1. Thinker 1

   27 April 2023 at 11:30 am

   Not a good example of democracy in action. Brown is proceeding on the basis of having a public mandate to a referendum to sell airport shares, but it seems the public was provided with materially incorrect information to make its decision on:

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-mayor-wayne-brown-to-push-on-with-selling-auckland-airport-shares-after-consultation-showed-majority-support/ZFTGQUUET5BIXCQ4RTN3EGWVMY/

   Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown intends to push on with selling Auckland Council’s shares in Auckland International Airport after public consultation showed most support the controversial move.

   HOWEVER: From the council summary of the budget consultation process:

   https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/media/2bydf5sp/kantar-public-2023-annual-budget-research-report_24-april.pdf (page 8)

   This is what residents were told, when asked for their opinion:

   This section examines Aucklanders’ support for the proposed sale of Auckland Council’s shares in Auckland International Airport Limited. Respondents were asked the following question: This next question is about Auckland Council’s approximate 18% of shares in Auckland International Airport Limited (known as an 18% shareholding).

   The options are for council to sell all, some, or none of its shares. If council sells all its shares, council debt and the interest on that debt would reduce the most. If council only sells some of its shares so that it keeps a 10% shareholding, council debt and interest would reduce but by less. A 10% shareholding would mean council would still own enough of Auckland International Airport to stop other companies from buying or controlling the Airport company.

   If council sells only some or none of its shares, it will need to increase rates more than 4.66% and/or borrow more than $75 million additional debt. Selling no shares would mean the largest increases in rates and/or debt.

   Do you think council should… • Sell all its shares • Sell only some of its shares • Not sell any shares • Some other option (please tell us) • Don’t know

   This was provided in the post-consultation summary.

   *Correction statement for reader to consider in interpreting the survey results: This statement was incorrect. A 10% shareholding would not prevent someone from acquiring 51% or 75% of the shares, and therefore taking majority or total control of the company. Majority control (51%) gives certain abilities such as passing majority votes at shareholder meetings and appointing directors.

   A 10% shareholding could prevent a 100% takeover under the provisions of the takeovers code (as a 10% shareholder can’t be forced to sell their shares under the code) but it could not necessarily block a 100% takeover by way of a “scheme of arrangement” which requires a court order, and approval of only 75% of the shareholding votes cast.

   Note, as AIAL’s shares are currently widely held, in practice it may be difficult for anyone to achieve the requisite 90% or 75% shareholder approval for a takeover, and council could use any shares it retains to vote against a takeover even if it cannot block one alone. Additionally, a foreign entity could not obtain a 25% interest in AIAL without national interest approval under the Overseas Investment Act.
2. tWiggle 2

   27 April 2023 at 11:34 am

   https://www.justice.govt.nz/justice-sector-policy/research-data/nzcvs/resources-and-results/

   Found this survey being run by the NZ MoJustice which differs from police crime stats. Thousands of randomly-chosen participants from round NZ go through an in depth 30 min interview on their experience of crime.

   The value is clearly in understanding and measuring all crimes, not just those where police got involved or charges were laid. It's a great (or depressing?) snapshot of our society, and provides a balance to law-n'-order political rhetoric about how things are so much worse every year.

   "The New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey collects information about New Zealanders’ experience of crime. This new survey will run every year from 2018 asking 8,000 [5,000 in actual nos] New Zealanders from all walks of life about their experiences."

   The last published data is from 2021. Over these 4 years the incidence and type of crime did not change much, which is heartening. Of course, 2022 data will be key to see if we have markedly got more violent as a society since then. Some takeaways from the data to date:

   30% of adults experience some sort of crime each year. Around half of this crime is harassment and threatening behaviour, burglary and fraud.

   For family violence, in every 10 incidents reported in 2021, 4 were physical, 3 were threats and controlling behaviour and 2 were sexual. 30% of these led to injury and 16% to medical treatment.

   For sexual assaults, 63% were by people known to the person, and 50% were in residential settings. 12% experiencing sexual assault were male. Of the estimated 167,000 sexual assualts, 120,000 were multiple assaults on an individual, ie, there is a group of highly victimised people. Drink and drugs were a factor in many intimate partner assaults.

   There's a lot more data on property crime – cars and cycles feature, for example. The small change over 4 years is heartening, although I'm no fan of total number. I hope this survey doesn’t get canned by a change of government.
3. tsmithfield 3

   27 April 2023 at 12:53 pm

   Peter Zeihan on New Zealand dairy. Very interesting.

   He has been in NZ for a few weeks Red Logix, though I think he may have gone now..

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