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6:00 am, September 27th, 2023 - 85 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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‘Tis the season for predictions – and TV1 is already salivating over their latest poll, appearing on the news tonight.
OK, I’ll play the game:
National – down slightly to about 37%. The absurdity of Natz tax cuts begins to sink in!
Labour – up slightly to about 29%, but still within the margin of error.
Act – firmly anchored on about 9%. The wheels are beginning to fall off the extreme right wagon.
Greens – hovering around 15% or more. Consolidating the fact this election is about climate!
Te Paarti Maori – still around 3%.
NZ First – around 5% – and the headlines will be all about Winnie the kingmaker!
I like your numbers Tony V.
And TOP , who will work with either main party ?
Postscript:
National continues to drop, and this trend will continue.
Act has stalled, and will drop to around 9% on Election night.
As a leftie, I hoped for better from Labour. But the Greens went up in the TV1 poll. This will continue. And TPM will do better.
But, as predicted, the lead was all about Winnie!
Competing on cruelty:
No Right Turn’s take on Natz and NZ First bene bashing:
“But then, its not supposed to make sense, let alone work. It's just supposed to be performatively cruel, to attract the votes of vicious arseholes who can only feel good from the suffering of those "below" them. And when some other government has to clean up the resulting social mess, that's all the better, because that can then be criticised as "cuddles" and "waste", and they're off for another round on the cruelty wagon.”
No Right Turn – from the side bar.
Nothing like some raw meat for the tory faithful–a good old Bennie Bash usually suffices to get them snarling. In reality in the 21st century punitive, sadistic, welfare should be done away with and replaced with a basic income for all citizens, abated by tax as you earn more.
Unemployment is not a moral failure–it is an intentional feature of capitalism and finance capital to put downward pressure on wages and worker organisation and fight backs. Even if there are some who do not want to work who could blame them with such an ugly system of exploitation?
The funny old thing with a lot of Natzos who demonise other citizens is that they are “Bennies” too, on National Superannuation and Winter Heating payments.
One thing is for sure old torys always vote, whether driven to the booth or tottering in on walking frames. That will be the tragedy of this Election–alienation and low voter turnout from younger people and those living off shore.
Some seem to be salivating for the oppression that the Epson Twerker wants to visit on fellow AO/NZers including Māori especially–but mark these words–we are in for some heavy duty social unrest and anarchy.
And Luxon will know that it won't do any good. How cruel and cynical is that! His voice has the confidence of a denier.
I doubt it'd a vote winner, the people who get worked up about benefits, already vote national And act
Luxon getting down to the basics on RNZ right now…
https://nickrockel.substack.com/p/bennie-bashing
From the "cruel to be kind" hymn book. Not so much the "Good" Book
Oh really? Love? And Louise ..Upston leading with this..reckon
Hey Luxon, Louise Upston, David Seymour and the rest of your creep crew. NZ can do without your kind of "love".
Anyone who is on the lower end..needs to get motivated..to VOTE !
Sounds suspiciously like Nat MP Mr Woodhouse’s “homeless man” using a COVID hotel Crowne Plaza facility…
Well there you go !. I had thought that exactly, but just..left it out.
Nats dog whistling to the Bene bashers..for all their worth.
More "pearls" aka reckons, from Louise Upston..
And Luxon…
Yeah, its based on "love" .
Anyone on a Benefit ..Vote Left !
“Sounds suspiciously like Nat MP Mr Woodhouse’s “homeless man” using a COVID hotel Crowne Plaza facility…”
Same guy. He took the free hotel pyjamas and bathrobe and scarpered. Been wearing them ever since. Resourceful dude – I would have hired him.
It’s a LOL from me AB…
The Herald today:
"But economists have criticised the policy, saying the revenue assumptions are unrealistic. National wants to get $2.9 billion from the tax over four years to fund its $14.6b tax plan. But economists warn the actual revenue could come in $2.1 billion short"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-peters-wants-to-see-nationals-costings-before-joining-govt-mini-budget-before-christmas-luxon-says-tax-cuts-absolutely-affordable-without-foreign-buyers-tax/2647LDYJOFHLXIXHF4NYCDA7JE/
Over 4 years the foreign house buyers tax is short $2.1 billion according to most economists. It will probably only raise $210m per year not $740m. (4 x $530m=$2.12 billion).
But what the Herald isn't saying is that there are other massive holes in the tax plan that will require huge cuts in public services, benefits etc for it to be funded.
And how is National going to fund its proposed, and chronically expensive, 13 major road projects?
Luxon seems concerned about the plight of low-income Kiwis (if not the "bottom feeders") – but the Willux tax relief package massively favours the already wealthy?
Luxon does have several eggs in the investment property basket, so re-heating the property market would suit him, and some wealthy Nat donors, down to the ground. Bloody pirates – bottom feeders the lot of them.
If Luxon can pay for his tax cuts without the foreign buyers tax, what then is the purpose of allowing foreign buyers back? The answer seems simple: to re-inflate the housing market, reward existing property owners with unearned net wealth increases, and make landlordism a sure bet.
No one was mentioning "cooker" until..gsays. And no I wont respond again in this Post.
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
as the person that wrote the post, I’m suggesting that we don’t have a fight between lefties under a post encouraging people to vote left.
The term cooker does get used as a pejorative on TS. I agree with gsays that this is a problem. While the origins of the word aren’t pejorative, the term itself sounds like a slur and it now gets used in that way. Soft weaponising.
https://thestandard.org.nz/search/cooker/?search_posts=true&search_sortby=date
https://thestandard.org.nz/search/cooker/?search_comments=true&search_sortby=date
Why does it matter? NZF are making hay out of it while they can, which in turn causes further divisions among people that care about NZ.
"Cooker" (which I incidentally hadnt heard of till seen on the Standard )
Cooker to me is Sue Grey, Liz Gunn, VFF, Counterspin, et al.They and the people they speak for are not anyone..I want to associate with. Ever.
this is certainly one of the issues that the left has in winning this election. They will vote NZF instead and it's game over if NZF get above 5%.
I really don't understand this liberal idea that the left can afford to say only the people we approve of should vote left. It's just not possible to win elections that way. We're in the minority, we need swing and centrist voters.
Where our hope lies is in providing good examples of progressive and inclusive culture so that people can see our values matter and we walk the talk. This is how we will convince mainstream NZ to move left again. Ostracising people simply reduces the pool of people who can become progressive. And in the case of the Freedom movement people, it pushes them to the right and FR.
You can do that. I am not ever going to. Instead I would sooner encourage young people to enrol and vote. As I linked on Daily Review.
The real Voices of Freedom.
Edit..I am..and certainly have, been doing my utmost to promote the Left.and Solidarity. Incl here on the Standard.
ok, but as I pointed out, there aren't enough of the people you like for the left to win the election.
Luxon loves slogans, maybe "Work will set you free" would suit his Benefit beliefs.
I wonder how many RW politicians wouldn't know it's origin /shuidder
Good to see the Police planning better for this next Wellington protest influx tomorrow.
But what will Winston do with it?
Bask ?
Wallow?
glory in it.
There's an image..urrgh! . I had thought bask as in, an old..lion, well past his prime..making friendly with hyenas ?. Hmm.. No that was the Lion King movie
)
Wallow it is.
I would be expecting Peters to be front and centre in meeting the protestors (on prime-time TV). And doing what he does so well acknowledging their 'pain' (while not actually promising to do anything at all about it).
Man never met a PR media op that he didn't like.
He'll be hoping that this one garners him an extra 1% of votes…..
Perhaps Chippy could supply the protesters with free sausage rolls.
Trump it
Bullshit tamiki was playing down numbers on te news , I'm expecting a flop.
Well they are constituents after all.
Way more engaged in the political process than most.
National's desire to bring back its "three strikes" penal policy finds a parallel in its desire to bring in a "traffic light" system (basically just a variant on three strikes) to punish those naughty bennies who don't want to work
We have Louise Upston on Morning Report yesterday saying that traffic light system is very necessary even though her party thinks that 85% of beneficiaries are abiding by the rules. She then brings up some example of work shy beneficiaries turning up to job interviews in their pyjamas, obviously looking to be rejected for the job.
So it is necessary to start swinging the cosh because 15% buck the system? If it was, say, over 50% then perhaps you might think its justifiable but 15%? Well f…. me, how bad is that? pretty low really, but it isn't good enough for National, they are prepared to make all beneficiaries feel like leeches because of a few that play up.
National also fails to consider the consequences of the traffic lights policy. Who will ultimately suffer? It won't be the indolent themselves, it will be their dependants. I guess there would be a fair number of Work and Income staff who will sigh with frustration with National's announced policy. Deja vu.
National will give us three strikes, traffic lights and faster cars.
Yay!
And that, apparently, is the main thing. But why continue to insist that we should take Willis and Luxon at their word, when they've clearly been caught out trying to scam the voters.
Hmm – donations the Nats receive. Might relaxing the ban on foreigners buying Kiwi homes be a way of rewarding the donors?
DKM National haven't been honest on the state of the economy their costings for the Wellsford Tuhoi highway at $2.3 billion is $2 billion short plus with annual maintenence at$400 million to keep this slip prone section open with climate change bringing floods once every other year making this road uneconomical and unaffordable!Police numbers increasing by only 77 per year National are cutting police numbers per head of population.National are lying every body needs to be talking about Nationals spin.
Couldn't agree more – Nats are past and present masters of self-interested deceit.
How many foreign buyers are going to pay 20% above market price.Then Winston will cancel that plus Nationals tax cuts
National are painting themselves into a corner,Now Luxon is blabbering loudly but not answering any questions.looking less trustable as the campaign goes on.
Predictably Western media/govt recent whitewashing of the well known Far Right extremist elements within both the Ukrainian military and politics, ends up with the Canadian House of Commons, including Trudeau, giving several standing ovations to a former member of the Nazi 14th Waffen SS Division ‘Galicia’…a Ukrainian Volunteer (80,000+) unit, commanded by several notorious German SS commanders, a unit well known for it’s outrageous brutality against both civilians and prisoners.
Also predictably, The Guardian piece on this sordid affair today only mentions the Polish civilians massacred by these monsters once, then spends almost the rest of the article focused on the Jewish civilians massacred…make of that what you will.
Then of course, true to form, The Guardian concludes its piece with this none too subtle ‘don't worry, some Nazi’s are alright’ deflection…
“On the issue of the Galicia division, the commission’s head, Jules Deschênes, ruled that members “should not be indicted as a group”. “The members of Galicia division were individually screened for security purposes before admission to Canada. Charges of war crimes of Galicia division have never been substantiated, either in 1950 when they were first preferred, or in 1984 when they were renewed, or before this commission.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/25/canadas-house-speaker-apologises-after-praising-ukrainian-veteran-who-fought-for-nazis
WHITEWASHING THE SS: THE ATTEMPT TO RE-WRITE THE HISTORY OF HITLER’S COLLABORATORS
“The 14th Division of the Ukrainian SS surrounded the village Huta Pieniacka from three sides,” the report to Poland’s government- in-exile explained. “The people were gathered in the church or shot in the houses. Those gathered in the church – men, women and children – were taken outside in groups, children killed in front of their parents. Some men and women were shot in the cemetery, others were gathered in barns where they were shot.”
http://espritdecorps.ca/history-feature/whitewashing-the-ss-the-attempt-to-re-write-the-history-of-hitlers-collaborators
As we all know…'You lay down with dogs you get up with fleas'…..the staff at the Guardian are so infested with fleas now, that it is the readers of that rag who should probably now start worrying about getting itchy.
Thank you for posting Adrian, the story reminds me of the Ukranian Azov nazis who forced over a hundred Russian speaking Ukrainians into the building in Odessa, set fire to it and shot those trying to escape the flames in 2014. I notice the Ukraine supporters have gone very quiet on here since things turned out so badly with the so called counter offensive and the realization that 85 percent of the Worlds population support Russia in their fight against the empire of lies aka USA.
That Odessa fire you refer to was started within the building by those who were inside, by spilling materials they brought inside with them.
As for the counteroffensive going badly, it IS going – and going persistently, which is impressive considering the lack of air support and the terrible conditions.
Lastly I think there's a better contender for the 'empire of lies' title than the USA.
Coventrie you are either a liar or very badly misinformed in regards to Odessa, Name another empire that lies like USA, there are none. If you are interested in the actual situation with the counter offensive I suggest you listen to Larry Davidson an ex CIA analyst or retired and decorated Colonel Douglas MacGregor phd or Ray McGovern another ex CIA analyst, all of whom have good intel and analysis of the SMO.
The scramble to exonerate Waffen SS has been illuminating
It's all about Holodomor you see.
Apparently not only were the Russians responsible for that, but children and babies of Roma,Poles and Jews also had to pay the price and be barbarically slaughtered , in ways that turned the hardened stomachs of even German Nazis
You three need to start a club
So you're a nazi apologist now Barfly?
I am very happy to support Ukraine if you think that makes me a Nazi apologist is all i can say.
A smiling nazi apologist – OK.
Will read all your comments as such from here on out nazi.
[And here we are again.
Reading is all you will be doing for a week because your last few comments have been nothing but name calling and ‘pig-fucker’ accusations that can no longer be considered robust debate and only as attempts to flame – Incognito]
Mod note
"I am very happy to support Ukraine if you think that makes me a Nazi apologist is all i can say."
You are in good company, one of your fellow war-porn enthusiasts commented how happy they were that young Russian soldiers were being killed. In the same missive they claimed to be progressive!
Barfly we are part of the club of 85 percent of the Worlds population who recognize Americas role in the Ukraine tragedy. Do you know who Victoria Nuland is and her role in the 2014 coup against the democratically elected Government of Viktor Yanukovych? She boasted about spending 6 billion dollars to bring about regime change there, She has killed the Country and NZ is assisting USA in Ukraine.
Well Tony shouldn't you be celebrating the the 83rd year since the USSR eliminated 22,000 Polish
NazisArmy Officers, Policemen and members of the 'gasp' intelligentsia. In the non-russophile world it was called.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre
Snowflake historical grievances to justify kill people today. How very Slobodan Milošević of you.
Well Barfly, shouldn't you be celebrating NATOs brutal and murderous invasion of Libya? Why on earth are you suggesting I would celebrate such an atrocity. You do understand that the USSR no longer exists right? Let's stick to the topic instead of muddying the waters with nonsense ..
The Nazi Party ceased to exist 78 years ago that doesn't seem to stop you from yodelling "Nazi" all day long and your fawning sychophantic russophilia is an exercise in delusion IMO.
Oh and by the way it’s a f***ing War no matter what Putin the tiny calls it
It was a tad bewildering a day or so ago to read about ok Nazi's and not ok ones.
I was tempted to offer the idea that the only bad ones were at the Wellies occupation and at Posie Parker rallies. I figured it would have added more heat than light though…
"Our examination of Labour’s various policy commitments confirms that the line-by-line costings provided to Infometrics can be met within the fiscal settings outlined in PREFU," the economics consultancy firm said."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300977960/nz-election-2023-live-labour-unveils-its-big-economic-plan
As for National's plans, we have this. One economist, Brad Olsen, who says that their plans could work bur also the figures of their critics are also realistic. Other economists have critical doubts.
The other great difference is that National's figures are still not released for scrutiny. We have to rely on Willis and Luxon's credibility…….
Willis also said Infometrics economist Brad Olsen believed the estimates were plausible while other economists shared the party's view that taxing foreign buyers would be a good thing to do.
Olsen has told RNZ today National's costings could be made to work by assuming a much larger proportion of foreign buyers purchase $2m-plus properties, however, the figures provided by the economists challenging the costings were also "realistic".
Perhaps in the next year or so if NAct-NZF are the Government, it will be too late for the voters to complain that the then Govt is way out with its numbers. "Ooops," mutters Nicola. "It didn't work out quite the way we said but never mind. We will work out a different plan." And after a brief mumble the voters will move on.
Cynical? Dishonest?
To not disclose their figures means they do not trust them, or they have manipulated or manufactured the numbers. That is cynical because they do not fear the consequences of their dishonesty. They think they can get away with it. To disclose their figures would show their economic incompetence at best, their dishonesty and real intent at worst.
They're not in it for you and me, ianmac.
When you’ve maxed the mortgage, the credit card, the HP and even the pay day lender is no longer interested, at least you can always fall back on Labours fiscal plan.
And when you've taken the piss and had your little laugh, there remains that little problem that Labour's plan is tenable and verified independently, whereas National's plan is still on the back of an envelope somewhere it deserves to be- in a rubbish bin, presumably, because we haven't seen it.
You know Jack …. we have one of the lowest debt levels in the OECD.Then we have one of the best preforming economies as well.
The 6th Labour government has made some efforts to keep inequality in check.
Some wealthy Kiwis (e.g. Luxon, Willis, NAct donors) will be absolutely wetting themselves at the prospect of more wealth flowing their way under a NAct govt.
Almost unnoticed amongst National's hamfisted promises to reduce red tape is one to scrap laws around the Conduct of Financial Institutions Act. This act is basically to put a brake on unethical or poor conduct of financial institutions and insurance companies.
By RNZ's figures some $150 million has been refunded to customers because of this important piece of legislation. Although not specifically stated, I would reckon a large part of this would be the rip off instance finance high interest lenders who had a field day ripping off the desperate before it was enacted.
Now National wants to scrap it. Obviously National does not care about ethical business and has no interest in protecting the vulnerable from rip off merchants.
I hope Labour and the Greens will pick up on this.
http://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018908710
Agree. This legislative reversal is chilling prospect for National and ACT to reverse accepted global standards of customer rights with banks.
Commerce Commission is right to flag this as a risk.
Can't wait to see if the main Aussie banks go over the National or ACT disclosure limit.
National's pathetic tough on Crime while only adding 300 police over 4 years that's a decrease in police numbers as population increase is much bigger.
I heard them boasting about how it would reduce the ratio from 180 to 170 people per policeman.
Gosh!
Population increase at about 100,000 per year that is much less police per head given 77 per 100,000 means 1 extra police per 12,300 people which means less police per head of population.
I think National are banking on a mass exodus starting 15 October to Australia and further overseas , sending back 501s, Australian criminals in NZ, as well as out of work civil servants, rugby and netball coaches, pyjama-wearing beneficiaries, road-cone manufacturers, shearers, shepherds, woke socialists, virtue-signallers, vegans and the gluten-intolerant.
Invited in will be foreign home buyers, so long as they don't live here, apocalypse avoiders, American hidey-hole seekers, mates, one percenters seeking fresh opportunities for wealth, plunder and tax breaks, and consumers of MacDonalds, Starbucks and Kentucky Fries.
Notice how heavily Nact depend on the people's feelings that crime is bad. This is aided by Media playing loud and detailed about the crimes. And after the Election there will be a backpeddling. Crime will get "better" because the gangs can't wear patches. Will it count if patches are smaller or in tattoos?
It has to be based on feelings, ianmac, because numbers and logic are not on their side which is why they can't even produce them.
And of course that is why they can't produce the numbers for their tax cuts. Neither the numbers not the logic actually exist or if they do, they must be kept hidden because they will prove the exact opposite outcome to what the Nats are claiming.
And talking of crime… there's a major incident underway in the vicinity of the Lincoln Rd offramp on Auckland's north western motorway. Gun shots are being exchanged according to witnesses.
That'll have NAct's and NZ First's hearts beating with excitement.
Both perception and reality matters.
Criminal gang membership really has gone up, from 4,900 to 8,900.
Gun crime gone up massively under this government.
Same with youth crime. Up huge over 2 terms.
"Acts intended to cause injury" are also definitely up under this government.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/the-whole-truth/130965380/the-whole-truth-has-violent-crime-gone-up-under-labour
No point talking about what tattoos signify these days.
Stop repeating their mistruths:
https://www.renews.co.nz/youth-crime-isnt-more-common-its-just-more-visible/
But arkie, it's all about "the vibe"
A “big debate” about "the technical numbers" eh? If only.
'Poor' Nicola can't even justify her working for the Nat's projected revenue from their 15% foreign buyer tax scam – if anyone still believes her numbers then they probably also believe Willis will resign as promised.
To echo arkie-
what are you basing gang membership numbers on?
Again- others get moderated for throwing unattributed stuff into a debate.
Getting an accurate number of active gang members is more difficult than national party tax costings.
Gang members don’t use swipe cards to let us know if they’re in or out.
Voting starts on Monday.
So hopefully we have got past the policy announcements and are into mobilisation.
Holy Cow leave it to the last moment why don't you.
Eastern Bay of Plenty agree deed of settlement for their Treaty claim when voting's about to start.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2309/S00148/te-whanau-a-apanui-and-the-crown-initial-deed-of-settlement.htm
Hard to see ACT+National pushing Treaty settlements if they win.
I would like to see some of Robert Reichs youtube videos on inequality corporate monopolization etc.How the Rich are playing the squeezed middle classes for fools.
Sorry, I can't find the link, but apparently the Medical General Practices are in dire straits due to chronic under-funding which has gone on for years according to Newshub's leading story this evening. So, c.mon Chippy – revisit your tax policy, and bring in a decent wealth tax, PLEASE.