Open mike 31/08/2023

37 comments on “Open mike 31/08/2023 ”

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1. Psyclingleft.Always 1

   31 August 2023 at 8:53 am

   Nats tax plan. "Giving" with one hand..and taking from the low income with the other..

   many New Zealanders, particularly families and households earning around the $120,000 a year mark, could benefit substantially.

   Nicola Willis' kids get real icecream !

   However…

   However, dig a little deeper and there are some fishhooks that may take off the some of the gloss – namely, scrapping half price and free public transport and little extra direct support for low income families.

   The package also has to be viewed alongside what people would not be getting – as a counter-factual – that could make a serious dent in that extra income.

   The most significant change – one certainly not highlighted in the document or presentation – is the removal of all public transport subsidies; that would also apply to those on low incomes or with disabilities. If a family relies on the bus and has a couple of kids travelling to school and back, those extra costs would eat into any tax relief delivered through threshold changes, and low income whānau would be particularly hard hit.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496917/the-sticking-points-how-does-national-s-tax-plan-stack-up

   Of course there are other fishhooks .

   I hope the "icecream" doesnt disguise them…..
   • Tricledrown 1.1

     31 August 2023 at 9:10 am

     Not many families earning $120,000 plus National never raise the minimum wage most families will be lucky to get 1/2 a block of cheese from National it just shows how far removed from the hardships most families are facing.
     • alwyn 1.1.1

       31 August 2023 at 9:47 am

       "Not many families earning $120,000"

       What on earth are you talking about? According to the Stats Department the average annual household income for the year ended June 2022 in New Zealand was $117,126. That will surely be up to $120,000 today.

       There are clearly a very large number of New Zealand households who are at that income level.

       https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/household-income-and-housing-cost-statistics-year-ended-june-2022/
       • Patricia Bremner 1.1.1.1

         31 August 2023 at 11:11 am

         Don't forget the really rich skew the average considerably.
         • Drowsy M. Kram 1.1.1.1.1

           31 August 2023 at 11:40 am

           Yes – would be interesting to know what % of NZ households have an annual income > $120,000, and what the median household income is in Aotearoa NZ.

           [edit] KJT @5 has an answer for disposable income – thanks.
           https://figure.nz/chart/6o5WkemBDJKlHjP2
           • alwyn 1.1.1.1.1.1

             31 August 2023 at 11:53 am

             I don't know the full answer to you first question but according to MBIE the median household income in New Zealand in 2023 is $115,200.

             So half the households have more than that number. The really rich do not really skew the average very much at all, do they?

             http://webrear.mbie.govt.nz/theme/household-income-median/map/timeseries/2023/new-zealand?right-transform=absolute

             edit. I have just seen the comment about KJT. That is disposable income which is not what Willis has been quoting, The main difference is that disposable income is after tax.
             • Tricledrown …

               31 August 2023 at 3:19 pm

               Alwyn your call to say half of all families earn more than $120,000 is a complete lie.Stats NZ has a complete breakdown of family incomes less than 30% have an income above that figure.These figures are skewed by a few very wealthy families only less than 3% earning more than $120,000 per annum but they earn 20% of the income while the bottom 10% earn less than 1% of the total causing figures to be skewed .Even there Median is over optimistic.After reading the income brackets and adding those figures together 73.1% of New Zealand families are earning less than $120,000 National are giving tax cuts to the well off only! the average family will be lucky to get 1/2 a block of cheese pw!
               • alwyn …

                 31 August 2023 at 4:00 pm

                 I suggest that you take your opinion up with MBIE.

                 You might also care to provide a link to your claimed Stats Dept source. I did that for my MBIE source of data after all. I refuse to take your comment seriously unless you at least proved a reference so I can check it.

                 ps. You were looking at the right year were you.
             • SPC …

               31 August 2023 at 4:36 pm

               The figures (KJT link and yours) appear consistent

               The disposable income is after tax.

               The before tax gross income.

               https://figure.nz/chart/QRwTnCDzvn0Do1D6

               The mean disposable is $92,000, the median is $79,000.
               The gross incomes $117,000 and $96,000

               That is for all households.

               You have to exclude singles (students, new workers) and those on super when assessing the average (mean) or median family income.

               The next issue is the 3 part category of family.

               Sole parent families, one income (two parent) and two income families.

               The median for a worker (40 hour week) is now over $60,000 – which is where the two income family at $120,000 comes from.
               • Drowsy M. Kram …

                 31 August 2023 at 5:22 pm

                 Thanks SPC, and for some info about factors contributing to the $21,000 p.a. difference between the mean and median gross household incomes.
             • Tricledrown …

               31 August 2023 at 7:10 pm

               Alwyn checked out latest figures from MBIE to my surprise their figures are only 34.3% of NZ families earn over $100 000.
               • SPC …

                 31 August 2023 at 8:08 pm

                 A lot of families are sole parent, and others have one income (young children)(carer role) or the second earner is working part-time.

                 And not all two income FT working couples get much more than MW ($45,000).
               • alwyn …

                 1 September 2023 at 10:48 am

                 Where do you get your numbers from?

                 The one I quoted was from MBIE and gave the median income in 2023 as being $115,200. Where did you get the figure you quote?

                 If you are going to quote numbers that you say come from MBIE but don't show the source how can I try and see why your claim does not align with a number that I found for the MBIE opinion?
             • Tricledrown …

               31 August 2023 at 8:51 pm

               Half must be on over that income $120,000, prove that figure .Mobie says only 34.3% families make more than $100,000 latest figures . So that means less than 30% of families make more than a $120,000.
         • Psyclingleft.Always 1.1.1.1.2

           31 August 2023 at 1:47 pm

           Yea that "average" high wage..is just BS. A lot of people are on half that..or less.

           I found this…

           $ 170,000 and over…..and then the top $ 300,000 and over.

           (It doesnt say how much they are over !) IMO this skews for sure.

           https://figure.nz/chart/UnE8CtjDJuqPUk9U

           And…the rich need a tax cut..for icecream ? Nic Willis : (
           • alwyn 1.1.1.1.2.1

             31 August 2023 at 4:06 pm

             Ah. A link to your source.

             The material you have linked to is for individuals, not for households. The National policies are based on the income for a family so the individual numbers are not relevant to determine who will get the benefits from the National Party policies when they are implemented.
       • Tricledrown 1.1.1.2

         31 August 2023 at 2:41 pm

         The median average income of New Zealand families is much lower than the average.The Median average that is the majority of families earn only 60% to 70% of the skewed average. So in reality only well off families who already vote National will benefit to any extent

         It's been long known that we have a very low median average I come in NZ.Alwyn National are hiding behind a false average
         • Descendant Of Smith 1.1.1.2.1

           31 August 2023 at 5:12 pm

           National has form on using figures and then changing the parameters around then to make things look better than they are e.g. John Key promising 170,000 net increase in jobs (the then historical measure of job growth), then becoming just new jobs.

           That work continues. Today I introduce a Budget that will further strengthen the long-term performance of the economy.

           It supports economic forecasts that show growth returning to its highest in over five years and 170,000 net new jobs being created by 2015.

           https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/budget-speech/budget-speech-2011#introduction

           Got even worse when the promised created casino jobs of 1,000 during construction and 800 when operating and by the time the casino finished it was jobs per year eg if one job lasted 5 years that counted as 5 jobs.

           A press release from the Beehive set the number of construction jobs at 1000 and staff employed at the centre at 800.

           The original Horwath report said 150 jobs could be created over a five-year construction period for a total of 750.

           https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/puzzle-of-keys-extra-casino-jobs/6G7DQRD4FTAVANKBDRFHJKUQ7A/

           We've been seeing the same mind-fuckery happening with talking about peoples incomes.

           This first started when they and ACT started talking about net incomes after government disbursements were added in – the whole you don't really pay any tax cause you get it back.

           This bullshit is self perpetuating e.g. we will subsidise landlords who will then put their rents up to take advantage of the subsidy, who will then compete for houses with each other which will put prices up which means we will need to increase the subsidy but then we will blame you the worker for needing the subsidy by pretending you pay no tax. These moronic mathematical genius landlords who hear the subsidy goes up by $30.00 so they put their rent up by $30.00 not comprehending that the subsidy is only 70% e.g. $21.00 of the $30.00). It gets presented as a subsidy to the tenant when it is not.

           State assistance is only needed when incomes from employers are inadequate. Once employers paid extra allowances to married men supporting families, once you got tax rebates for non-working partners.

           Next we spread the referencing from individual income to household income. In a much more individualised driven society suddenly we were now together again for the purposes of counting incomes.

           And now we moved away from the traditional method of counting whether we are better off on a weekly basis to a fortnightly one.

           with workers on the average $45,000 wage taking home an extra $16 a week from October.But Key mocked the offering, saying it was "too little, too late".

           "Labour's going to get a revival, well they think, going to the polls having given the average worker of New Zealand a family-sized block of cheese. That's it. That is the tax cut.

           "Nine years of waiting and a family-sized block of cheese and you get two blocks before the election and you're meant to be grateful," Mr Key said.

           https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/budget-chewing-gum-in-2005-now-its-a-block-of-cheese/PHVYCG32DF6KGVLRJLPGZQB7OE/

           All these changes have only one purpose – to make it seem as if poor people are better off than the actually are.

           The right like to control the language used and are much better at this than the left. We saw this for instance in the 1980's with the move from staff clerks to human resources – remove the sense of people and have them treated as a resource like a paper clip or a stapler – anecdotally in part because managers were committing suicide when they thought about the number of people they were negatively impacting on. France from memory had a particular problem with this occurring in large restructurings.

           We've seen it with the notions of political correctness and latterly wokeness.

           These people are not helping you even when they say they are – they are helping themselves.
   • SPC 1.2

     31 August 2023 at 2:00 pm

     The media's reporting ignored the significant value of half fares (bus and or rail in urban centres) for those with CSC and those over 12 and under 24 – free for those under 12.

     It also exaggerated the gain to couples with children (because of the child care rebate) when this only occurs when the children are under 5 and both parents are working.
2. AB 2

   31 August 2023 at 9:28 am

   Will National actually care if the foreign buyers and online gambling taxes deliver less revenue than claimed? It would become an opportunity to do the things they would likely prefer to do anyway: cut government spending more, sell state assets, or raise GST. Labour bends over backwards to be seen as "fiscally responsible" and weakens itself in doing so, while National doesn't really give a rat's about that because they're not held to account for it with the same level of ferocity.
   • Tiger Mountain 2.1

     31 August 2023 at 10:06 am

     Agree. NZ Labour doing the appeasement thing for Finance Capital is both frustrating for supporters and ultimately counterproductive for them if you take into account poll ratings.

     If the Labour tops and Caucus won’t even accept Robbo or David Parker’s views on tax then there is little chance they will take well meaning Micky Savage or us blog commenters into account either!

     This election is now officially a lottery imo, down to these factors…
     –NActFirst massive campaign funds and media channel reach
     –Labour Caucus refusal to move on CGT/Wealth tax/Social wage (e.g. free dental)
     –unfocused post COVID grumpiness, fruitcake parties, revenge voting, alienation, non voting
     –social media exacerbating a phenomenon long predicted and observed–neo liberal individualism–the fading of collectivism and egalitarianism

     There are empathetic NZers out there as the 2020 election swing showed, but, the reactionaries are throwing a lot at Oct.14, this is pretty much selfish boomers last dance in numerical superiority terms. Technically new gens are ascendant, but turnout is king.

     n.b. thousands of struggling boomers too, elder poverty particularly for women is a thing now.
     • AB 2.1.1

       31 August 2023 at 10:22 am

       To win, I feel Labour needed to have a decent wodge of money obtained at the expense of the wealthy (however defined) in the pockets of low and lower-middle income earners right now – with Nat-ACT threatening to take it away. They needed to act one or two budgets ago.
       • Tiger Mountain 2.1.1.1

         31 August 2023 at 11:49 am

         Yep, 2020/21 was the time to kick some arse, but Labour seemed to take the majority MMP vote, including provincial booths/seats they had never won before, or rarely, as an endorsement of their policy–when it was more a big thank you for the COVID performance.

         Too late now, so it is time to support Green and TPM and hope Winston and the fruitcake small parties suck votes from National and Act, but do not cross the threshold. If anyone has a better idea please enlighten us.
   • Anne 2.2

     31 August 2023 at 10:26 am

     Labour bends over backwards to be seen as "fiscally responsible" and weakens itself in doing so, while National doesn't really give a rat's about that because they're not held to account for it with the same level of ferocity.

     I have often wondered why that is.

     My conclusion is that it has less to do with the belief that the Nats are good money managers but rather at election time the Nats always come up with some simplistic lollie scramble for the proletariat class (that's the rest of us) and once again many fall for it.

     So, why does it happen? I suspect it partly goes back to the old British class system. They like to kid themselves they are superior to their peers – especially if they have managed to make a little bit of money. They preface their voting record by proudly stating "oh we always vote National because they are good business managers and that's what we need". They don't have a clue what they're talking about but it makes then feel good even though they are going against their own interests.

     Everyone will have them in their family circle. I certainly have.
   • Blazer 2.3

     31 August 2023 at 10:39 am

     'ister for Racing Kieran McAnulty and Revenue Minister Barbara Edmonds are furthering their claim there is a sizable mistake underpinning National's tax plans – a centrepiece of the policy it will take to the October 14 general election.

     National promised to close what it called a tax loop by charging online casino gambling providers based offshore, to pull in $179 million a year. McAnulty then said not only was the tax already in place, the plans were overcooked by about $130 million, because the tax take from this was now $40m to $50m.'stuff.
     • Anne 2.3.1

       31 August 2023 at 10:41 am

       They are appearing live on camera @ Stuff website starting 1045am:

       https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300961320/election-2023-live-labour-ministers-respond-to-national-tax-plan
   • Ad 2.4

     31 August 2023 at 11:42 am

     "Labour bends over backwards to be seen as "fiscally responsible" "

     Not true. There was nothing conventional about going $60 billion in a hole to sustain most of the businesses and employees of the entire economy. Not been done on that scale since the Depression.
     • Adrian 2.4.1

       31 August 2023 at 12:10 pm

       Anybody give any thought to what times would be like now if that level of bailout had not happened? I have mates in England in their 60s who are having to sell their houses because of borrowings made to survive the thieving Tories over there.
     • AB 2.4.2

       31 August 2023 at 12:14 pm

       That's a fair point Ad – but it was in very unconventional times (a pandemic) where there was no pre-existing playbook or established set of conventions. Outside that, I think my point stands.
3. aj 3

   31 August 2023 at 11:06 am

   Real Estate boss on National's plan to fund tax cuts through levy on foreign buyers

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018904904/real-estate-boss-on-national-s-plan-to-fund-tax-cuts-through-levy-on-foreign-buyers

   Wasn't this outfit a big donor to National? Should have been disclosed in the interview.
4. Tiger Mountain 4

   31 August 2023 at 11:33 am

   Some of the usual suspects up to their usual dirty tricks… Hobson’s Pledge and Taxpayers Union apparently…
   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/496933/astroturf-accusations-over-we-belong-website-run-by-anti-co-governance-group

   “Astroturfing” may seem dated terminology, but the concept in 2023 is the same as always–presenting as something you are not.

   Don Brash is pathological in his hatred for Māori and Māori culture, and needs to be called out by media channels, not regarded as some sort of white supremacist celebrity.
   • AB 4.1

     31 August 2023 at 1:01 pm

     Understand your indignation TM but I don't think we know anything about the Don's personal behaviour towards individual Maori. I expect he is polite and courteous at the individual level, so "hatred for Maori" is probably unfair. "Hatred for … Maori culture" is another question. I would tend to say he is dismissive of its value in general and its contemporary importance in particular. He asserts the superiority of what gets called variously 'western' or 'Enlightenment' culture. That this is also a "white" culture is convenient but not central to his thinking. The Enlightenment gave us Adam Smith, and derivatively, neoclassical economics of which Don is a devoted cultist. He likes the Enlightenment's emphasis on supposed rationality, individual rights and scientific method. None of these things are to be sneered at, but for the Don they provide the ultimate intellectual validation of his existing predispositions. He is best seen as an assimilationist – Maori should essentially become like Pakeha, at least in the public domain. I am quite happy to describe assimilationists like Brash as racists, but it is not how the word "racist" is commonly understood – hence the problem.
     • SPC 4.1.1

       31 August 2023 at 1:48 pm

       Not just Don Brash – it explains the Taxpayer Union and its various fronts.

       The other strands in the National Party, the landlord group, the farmer group and the Christian conservative group.
     • Tiger Mountain 4.1.2

       31 August 2023 at 2:13 pm

       You have taken a more civilised approach to Dr Brash than I am willing to, have seen him debate with Hone Harawira over the years and what is missing is an ability on his part to exercise tolerance. How people handle differences with others in life is a real indicator of what their world view is.

       Don seems a “my way or the highway” type. Hence supremacist is an ok term in his case. Maybe a handful of Māori in suits are on his contact list…but it would be surprising. I still remember a Sunday Star interview years back where he evinced his liking for a corned beef dinner. The journalist said his idea of a good night might be a hearty game of Scrabble accompanied by a glass of water.

       His interview with Kim Hill in 2017 was a classic…
       https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/345248/brash-weighs-in-to-te-reo-debate
       • SPC 4.1.2.1

         31 August 2023 at 2:54 pm

         I remember Don Brash 1990's era advocating that the unemployed be paid less than the MW – at the time the ILO was opposing any attempt to bring in work for the dole here.
   • SPC 4.2

     31 August 2023 at 1:46 pm

     It's British/Brash culture civilisation centric, the secular version, rather than the white race nation Christendom. People like Jordan Peterson try and merge the two into an apology for the hierarchy of a natural patriarchal order (evolutionary psychology determinism).
5. KJT 5

   31 August 2023 at 11:36 am

   Mean and median income

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