While the Māori party isn’t registering particularly well in the party vote, I’d keep my eyes on the electorates where their co-leaders are running in Te Tai Hauāuru and Tamaki Makarau.
Digging into the modelling for a bit, we can see visually here that the balance is very tight:
In these simulations, the threshold was largely pretty consistent:
Under Threshold: | Roy Morgan | Colmar Brunton | Reid Research |
ACT Party | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0% |
New Zealand First | 100.0% | 99.4% | 100% |
Green Party | 0% | 0.1% | 2.5% |
Finally, let’s have a look at the electorate shift modelling and which MPs might be in tomorrow. This looks manageable for both large parties:
Labour |
|||||
No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
1 | Jacinda Ardern | Mt Albert | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
2 | Kelvin Davis | Te Tai Tokerau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
3 | Grant Robertson | Wellington Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
4 | Phil Twyford | Te Atatū | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
5 | Megan Woods | Wigram | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
6 | Chris Hipkins | Remutaka | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
7 | Andrew Little | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
8 | Carmel Sepuloni | Kelston | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
9 | David Parker | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
10 | Nanaia Mahuta | Hauraki-Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
11 | Trevor Mallard | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
12 | Stuart Nash | Napier | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
13 | Jenny Salesa | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
14 | Damien O’Connor | West Coast-Tasman | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
15 | Kris Faafoi | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
16 | David Clark | Dunedin | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
17 | Ayesha Verrall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
18 | Peeni Henare | Tāmaki Makaurau | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
19 | Willie Jackson | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
20 | Aupito William Sio | Māngere | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
21 | Poto Williams | Christchurch East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
22 | Vanushi Walters | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
23 | Michael Wood | Mt Roskill | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
24 | Adrian Rurawhe | Te Tai Hauāuru | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
25 | Kiri Allan | East Coast | Elected via list | Elected via list | Wins Electorate |
26 | Kieran McAnulty | Wairarapa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
27 | Louisa Wall | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
28 | Meka Whaitiri | Ikaroa-Rāwhiti | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
29 | Rino Tirikatene | Te Tai Tonga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
30 | Camilla Belich | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
31 | Priyanca Radhakrishnan | Maungakiekie | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
32 | Jan Tinetti | Tauranga | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
33 | Deborah Russell | New Lynn | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
34 | Marja Lubeck | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
35 | Angie Warren-Clark | Bay of Plenty | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
36 | Willow-Jean Prime | Northland | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
37 | Tamati Coffey | Waiariki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
38 | Naisi Chen | Botany | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
39 | Jo Luxton | Rangitata | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
40 | Jamie Strange | Hamilton East | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
41 | Liz Craig | Invercargill | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
42 | Ibrahim Omer | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
43 | Duncan Webb | Christchurch Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
44 | Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
45 | Ginny Andersen | Hutt South | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
46 | Rachel Brooking | List | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
47 | Paul Eagle | Rongotai | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
48 | Helen White | Auckland Central | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
49 | Barbara Edmonds | Mana | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
50 | Angela Roberts | Taranaki-King Country | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
51 | Shanan Halbert | Northcote | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
52 | Neru Leavasa | Takanini | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
53 | Tracey McLellan | Banks Peninsula | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
54 | Lemauga Lydia Sosene | List | Elected via list | Not elected | Elected via list |
55 | Steph Lewis | Whanganui | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
56 | Dan Rosewarne | Waimakariri | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
57 | Rachel Boyack | Nelson | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
58 | Arena Williams | Manurewa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
59 | Ingrid Leary | Taieri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
… | |||||
– | Greg O`Connor | Ōhariu | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
– | Anna Lorck | Tukituki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
– | Tangi Utikere | Palmerston North | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
National |
|||||
No. | Name | Electorate | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
1 | Judith Collins | Papakura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
2 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
3 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
4 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
5 | Shane Reti | Whangārei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
6 | Todd McClay | Rotorua | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
7 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
8 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
9 | Louise Upston | Taupō | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
10 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
11 | David Bennett | Hamilton East | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
12 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
13 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
14 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
15 | Mark Mitchell | Whangaparāoa | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
16 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
17 | Andrew Bayly | Port Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
18 | Nick Smith | Nelson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Loses seat |
19 | Maureen Pugh | List | Elected via list | Loses seat | Loses seat |
20 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
21 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
22 | Johnathan Young | New Plymouth | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
23 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
24 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Panmure-Ōtāhuhu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
25 | Paulo Garcia | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
26 | Nancy Lu | List | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
27 | Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
28 | Agnes Loheni | List | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
29 | Dale Stephens | Christchurch Central | Not elected | Not elected | Not elected |
30 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatū | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
31 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
32 | Stuart Smith | Kaikōura | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
33 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
34 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
35 | Simon O’Connor | Tāmaki | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
36 | Brett Hudson | Ōhariu | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
37 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
38 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitīkei | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
39 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
40 | Matt King | Northland | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
41 | Chris Penk | Kaipara ki Mahurangi | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
42 | Tim Van de Molen | Waikato | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
43 | Dan Bidois | Northcote | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
44 | Jo Hayes | Mana | Loses seat | Loses seat | Loses seat |
… | |||||
64 | Tania Tapsell | East Coast | Wins Electorate | Not elected | Wins Electorate |
ACT |
||||
No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: |
1 | David Seymour (Epsom) | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate | Wins Electorate |
2 | Brooke van Velden | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
3 | Nicole McKee | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
4 | Chris Baillie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
5 | Simon Court | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
6 | James McDowall | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
7 | Karen Chhour | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
8 | Mark Cameron | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
9 | Toni Severin | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
10 | Damien Smith | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
Green |
|||||
No. | Name | Reid Research: | Colmar Brunton: | Roy Morgan: | Roy Morgan: (Adjusted) |
1 | Marama Davidson | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
2 | James Shaw | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
3 | Chlöe Swarbrick | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
4 | Julie Anne Genter | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
5 | Jan Logie | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
6 | Eugenie Sage | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
7 | Golriz Ghahraman | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
8 | Teanau Tuiono | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
9 | Elizabeth Kerekere | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Elected via list |
10 | Ricardo Menéndez March | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
11 | Steve Abel | Not elected | Elected via list | Elected via list | Not elected |
12 | Teall Crossen | Not elected | Not elected | Elected via list | Not elected |
Powered by WPtouch Mobile Suite for WordPress