Reasons for Optimism

Written By: - Date published: 11:10 am, March 22nd, 2025 - 13 comments
Categories: climate change, Economy, economy, Free Trade, housing, science, superannuation, trade, uncategorized, unemployment - Tags:

We’re good, but we know we want better leadership.

After the weakest economy since 1991 (outside of COVID), New Zealand overall has an economy which at .7% growth rise for the December 2024 quarter is not bad even if you account for the seasonal statistical noise.

Australia at 3% GDP growth, China at 4.8%, and United States at 2.9% for this year signals our trading partners can afford us and will keep buying the goods and services New Zealand has to offer. We’ve not recovered but we are on the way.

As Labour leader Chris Hipkins was clear this week: 

The real question is growing what and for whose benefit, and you can grow the economy in ways that are actually detrimental to the New Zealand population,” Mr Hipkins said. “What we want to shoot for is quality growth, the growth that actually makes New Zealanders better off, and not dismissing old-school manufacturing.”

That’s a really good problem to face and one I’m expecting a post-2026 Labour government is up for.

Sometimes we forget how good our underlying conditions are, and how much a new more idealistic government has to build on.

New Zealand is in the top 10 countries in the world least reliant on fossil fuels for all energy use types, and very close to 90% renewable electricity generation. 8% of our new car sales are either hybrid or EV, past the point where it’s reversible. Public transport use in Auckland has shot back up and will get to its pre-COVID numbers this year. 

Violent crime in New Zealand has gone down for the first time since 2018, and the road death toll is down below 300 which is still sick but the trend is good.

Unemployment devastating as it is for anyone going through it, is at 5.1% of the whole working population and not exploding. 

Few of the welfare service additions launched by Clark and then Ardern have been reversed, even under a government like this.

Our superannuation is more secure with NZSuper controlling $77 billion for us. 

International visitors are up a lot more than domestic travel is down. People love us again.

Matariki as a celebration is embedded, most of the big historic Treaty settlements are done, the Treaty Principles bill is about to go down in ignominy and with it the remaining dignity of this government, and the entire noise about personal identity has completely died down.

Housing prices have come off the boil particularly Auckland and Wellington, which is what we know we’ve always needed in three decades. It’s the right kind of pain. Also helped by a good decrease in our net immigration gains that put pressure on every public service and on housing.

Really big projects are about to complete across New Zealand like State Highway 3 over the range to Woodville, City Rail Link in Auckland next year and other really big rail upgrades like triple tracking, electrification to Pukekohe, bus lanes through the eastern suburbs and more. The big Central Interceptor sewer line is operating, the massive cycleway from Eastbourne to Wellington will be done this year, major Transpower upgrades are completed, the national convention centre and Christchruch stadium will open next year, the Dunedin Hospital is actually being built … and there remains huge state appetite for huge civil works to generate a more secure and reliable network.

There have been no disasters of note since Cyclone Gabrielle in February 2023. Which given the previous decade of disasters is a miracle.

10% of our land is National Park which is globally top 20 but we’re top 5 in the world for state protected land overall. 

Otago of all places is booming, and the last time they had one of those was in the 1860s. In fact all of the South Island is on a decade-long roll.

We’ve won more gold medals than we ever have, have more world-beating teams and sportspeople than we ever had, and we actually globally dominate multiple sports. 

And finally, we are secure in the knowledge that New Zealanders see through all this background good news listed above and know that this is a really poor government, and are polling this leadership accordingly. 

We haven’t had high performing government since 2008 but the good stuff still holds. 

This lot can’t even pack a lunch. So we’ll eat their lunch for them.

13 comments on “Reasons for Optimism ”

  1. Barfly 1
    22 March 2025 at 11:19 am

    "This lot can’t even pack a lunch. So we’ll eat their lunch for them."

    Brilliant!yes

    Reply
  2. tWig 2
    22 March 2025 at 12:06 pm

    Debunking conspiracies aotearoa thinks the government are using bots to bump up positive comments.

    Certainly looks like bots from the mindless repetition of Luxon's growth, any growth, corporate growth, is good.

    Reply
  3. bwaghorn 3
    22 March 2025 at 12:20 pm

    So why am I terrified of getting sick or unemployed, and retirement is just a dream, the last one is definitely my own fault to a point but I will have worked for 47 + years by the time I get to 65 mostly bringing in export $

    Reply
  4. SPC 4
    22 March 2025 at 12:50 pm

    One wonders about the growth, what if there was not a favourable world dairy price?

    There is a cost of power problem (esp in dry years). Many countries use hydro as reserve power for a reason. If we did not need all of our hydro, we could use some as such a reserve (otherwise we sort of cope via the smelter using less in dry years, or Methanex not using gas so it can be used at Huntly).

    But we should plan for more solar panels on homes and also more battery storage.

    But will a government that blocked a wind farm off Taranaki, by allowing seabed mining, do the right thing?

    One also wonders about what has happened to research and its future consequences.

    The cost of power and rent to incomes is high. Unless this is resolved, it will undermine capacity for many to own their homes.

    Reply
  5. Adrian 5
    22 March 2025 at 12:56 pm

    There is one thing that’s here already and it’s a real conundrum for National governments and that is drought. If they piss off the farmers as they have done in the past by prevaricating on assistance then they get into big trouble at the ballot box. A lot of noise was made about Brashs Māori bashing speech over twenty years ago being the cause of the rout, but in the countryside towards the end of a 3 year drought it was the wives opting for Helen Clark and the husbands staying home on election day that ensured that National lost heavily. At country hall meet the Nat candidate meetings a friends job was to make sure the back door was not locked and a car was sitting idling to make sure of a fast getaway. It was needed on more than one occasion.

    Reply
    • Ad 5.1
      22 March 2025 at 4:52 pm

      Rural Support Trust is what those lovely droughted dairy farmers get for their mental stress at fucking up our water system.

      Not begging at MSD like actual poor citizens.

      Reply
      • joe90 5.1.1
        22 March 2025 at 5:29 pm

        Not begging at MSD like actual poor citizens.

        Will no one think of the farmers.

        /

        But it is also important to remember that while farmers were severely hit
        by depression, rather less than a quarter of all farmers actually sought formal mortgage relief under the 1936 Act; moreover, farming always provided at least subsistence, whereas urban dwelling did not. And within the rural sector, farmers were not always the worst off. As Alfred Coleman, Chairman of the Taranaki Commission, observed early in 1935:

        It is the prerogative of the farmer . . . to grumble, but he has by no means lost heart.
        He appears to motor into town, attend race-meetings, picture shows, etc., as freely as ever. No doubt he economises by patronising cheaper seats etc., but he nevertheless still avails himself of all social amenities. The people who appear to be losing heart and drifting into a state of despair are those in the towns throughout the Province who are either out of work or whose avocations barely afford the necessities of life. Their condition is pitiable.”

        https://web.archive.org/web/20150126113106/https://www.nzjh.auckland.ac.nz/docs/1987/NZJH_21_2_03.pdf

        Reply
  6. James Thrace 6
    22 March 2025 at 5:29 pm

    “International visitors are up a lot more than domestic travel is down.”

    except spending on overseas credit cards in NZ (aka tourists spending on their own cards) is a lot lower than it normally is.

    so while people are visiting, they’re parsimonious low budget tourists.

    https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/132500/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-friday-few-retail-td-rate-changes-good-trade

    Reply
  7. feijoa 7
    22 March 2025 at 11:07 pm

    Well, I doubt our lauded lack of corruption is looking so rosy.

    We have a government in hoc to Big Tobacco, Big Food, Big Ag, Big Oil, Big Fish…

    And they are tinkering with our institutions, reducing staff, fast tracking laws, silencing public sector workers, shutting down science, turning our kids into robots, …

    Democracy is looking vulnerable- just see what Trump gets away with and that is where we are heading.

    Reply
    • Phillip ure 7.1
      23 March 2025 at 9:07 am

      Imagine how Seymour must salivate..get extremity excited…

      ..when he sees trump disestablish the American education infrastructure…

      ..it could be illuminating..(in a know thy enemy way)..to ask Seymour which gummint depts here..that he would doge..

      ..if he could…

      Reply

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