Royal Bank of Scotland to investors: “Sell everything”

Written By: - Date published: 10:48 am, January 13th, 2016 - 154 comments
Categories: capitalism, climate change, disaster, Economy, Financial markets, global warming, monetary policy, overseas investment, sustainability - Tags:

financial crisis 3

The global sharemarkets continue to decline on the basis of poor growth figures coming out of China.  And the deck of cards that is our financial system is reaching that perilous state that the respected Royal Bank of Scotland is advising its investor clients to sell.

From the Sydney Morning Herald (h/t Paul):

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach $US16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008.

“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.

RBS’s credit team said markets are flashing the same stress alerts as they did before the Lehman crisis in 2008.

Andrew Roberts, the bank’s credit chief, said both global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings, and uncharted waters given that debt ratios have reached record highs.

“China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the ‘Goldilocks’ love-in of the last two years,” he said.

China’s decline has clearly had an effect on the world oil market with the RBS predicting that Brent oil prices could crash to $16 a barrel.  And if the oil industry is struggling it appears that the coal industry may be on its last legs, if this recent news about the likely failure of the Carmichael Mine in Australia getting off the ground is anything to go by.

As reported by the ABC:

A $US16.5 billion idea born in the throes of the greatest resources boom in history, [Gautam] Adani has a great deal riding on the Carmichael mine project, the economics of which appear increasingly foolhardy.

His Indian based conglomerate has spent upwards of $US3.3 billion and five years successfully navigating the regulatory maze of state and federal resource project approvals, only to watch the appetite for thermal coal evaporate.

Prices have collapsed and global demand is waning, in the oft-repeated boom bust cycle of the resource world.

But as a growing band of financiers turn their back on the project and as global momentum on climate change gathers pace, the question is not so much whether Adani has missed the boat on a once-in-a-century cyclical opportunity but whether his firm is embarking on a dangerous quest that could end in ruin.

Rather than a mere cyclical downturn, coal appears to be in structural decline.

If global finance refuses to fund the project, Adani’s failure to turn Carmichael into reality may become the defining moment, marking the point when the world turned its back on coal.

If the world is to recover mass conversion to renewable energy sources may be enough to keep the consumption occurring at least for a while.  But it seems clear that steps taken in 2008 to address the global financial crisis have not worked.  And the ability of governments to engage in further quantitative easing may be limited.

154 comments on “Royal Bank of Scotland to investors: “Sell everything””

  1. tinfoilhat 1

    “But it seems clear that steps taken in 2008 to address the global financial crisis have not worked.”

    Because no real steps were taken.

    It was just business as usual for most of the banks who dumped their gambling losses onto the public while giving the senior executives eye watering bonuses – I expect the same thing to happen again.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.1

      Because no real steps were taken.

      Exactly what I was going to say.

      The governments of the world need to shift from our present ponzi scheme of bank currencies to one of national reserve currencies. In other words, we need to stop the private banks from creating money through credit and have the governments create it through spending on real resources/services.

      Until we shift over to a monetary system that resembles The Chicago Plan then the financial system will always fail as it’s a scam.

      • AmaKiwi 1.1.1

        The Chicago Plan will be put to a binding referendum in Switzerland in a few months. (The required 100,000 signatures were just verified.)

        Reminder: Two years ago the Swiss voters passed a binding referendum to limit immigration. The were universally attacked by EU governments, the same governments who are today desperately trying to limit immigration.

    • Bill 1.2

      What was that legislation or provision that Cullen put in place in the dying days of the last Labour led government? Something about banks or financial institutions being able to take cash directly from depositor accounts to cover their arses in the event of losing big. I can’t remember the details or even what it was called atm, but I do remember he scoffed (unconvincingly imo) that the provision would never need to be used.

      • alwyn 1.2.1

        For about the twentieth time I am going to point out on this blog that the procedures available do NOT allow the bank to “cover their arses”.
        I allows a receiver to close down an insolvent bank in such a manner that depositors will retain immediate access to most of their deposits with the bank.
        However, before they lose anything the owners of the bank will have lost ALL their equity in it. In simple terms they won’t own any part of the bank any more.

        If that is “covering their arse” it would be covered with a sheet of red hot corrugated iron.
        Why don’t you read what the RB has published on the subject? It is readily available on their website. Then you might stop being one of those who publish fantasy opinions on the subject.

        • Lara 1.2.1.1

          In New Zealand deposits in banks are NOT fully guaranteed.

          If a bank fails some of depositors funds may be frozen.

          Once the losses of the bank are assessed then they may be offset by frozen funds.

          Depositors could lose some of their funds held in bank accounts.

          It’s all here. In the OBR on the Reserve Bank of NZ website.

          Specifically this piece:

          “a conservative portion of account balances frozen…The frozen funds are then set aside to cover any losses beyond what the bank’s capital position could absorb. The frozen funds are not cancelled or written off, and the depositors and creditors continue to hold a legal claim to these funds. To the extent that all or some of these funds remain available after all losses have been covered, they will be returned to depositors and creditors.”

          The words highlighted are important. Depositors funds (not all, some) may be used to offset banks losses.

          They may be returned. They may not.

          Although depositors may have a legal claim to their funds, good luck with that in the scenario of a big bank failure. Wanna take it to court? How much would that cost?

          Yeah. Right.

          And from what I’ve seen in the questions above this is the gist of what people are asking:

          If I have money in my bank account and that bank fails, could I lose some or all of that money?

          And the answer is definitely YES.

          • alwyn 1.2.1.1.1

            I may not have spelt that out fully in my comment here but I have done so on previous occasions. I refuse to repeat the detail time after time after time.The point in Bill’s comment I was objecting to was
            “banks or financial institutions being able to take cash directly from depositor accounts to cover their arses”.
            He, and others in the past have used words like this to try and give the impression that the owners of the bank can do this in order to avoid losing anything themselves. That is the “covering their arse” claim.

            The only person who can freeze these assets is the receiver. Before any of the depositors in the bank lose any money permanently the owners will have lost all their equity in the bank. ALL of it.
            The bank may end up being restructured, and continue in operation after being sold, but the owners at the time of the crash won’t continue owning it with equity remaining from before the crash unless all the frozen depositor funds have been returned to the depositors..

            • Lara 1.2.1.1.1.1

              I agree, and it is unfortunate that comments like “cover their arses” lead to an interpretation that bank owners keep their funds while depositors lose theirs.

              I don’t think may TS commentators would be very concerned about owners of banks losing all their money permanently in the event of their bank failing.

              But they would be concerned about personally losing access to any funds they may have saved in a bank, and eventually losing some of those funds permanently.

          • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1.1.2

            If I have money in my bank account and that bank fails, could I lose some or all of that money?

            And the answer is definitely YES.

            As it should be.

            When you loan someone money you’re taking the risk that you’re not going to get it back.

            A bank deposit is a loan to the bank.

            • Lara 1.2.1.1.2.1

              We used to think that putting your money in the bank was safe.

              The GFC showed that it is not.

              Plenty of banks failed during and just after the GFC.

              So if one wishes to save money, and it’s not safe in a NZ bank (if there’s another global financial crisis and if NZ banks fail) then how can it be done?

              Cash would be the safest, but that risks fire or theft. Government bonds would be considered a safe route, the minimal risk is the government may declare bankruptcy and the bonds may then become worthless.

              With all methods there is risk. Albeit small, but it’s there.

              • Draco T Bastard

                We used to think that putting your money in the bank was safe.

                That particular delusion only came about after the Great Depression because people stopped putting money in the banks as they feared losing it. The government stepped in and guaranteed peoples money in the banks. This, inevitably, led to the banks running extortionate risks and the GFC. Such a guarantee is, of course, a massive subsidy that the private banks get from the government. One of many in fact.

                So if one wishes to save money, and it’s not safe in a NZ bank (if there’s another global financial crisis and if NZ banks fail) then how can it be done?

                There is, as a matter of fact, one that perfectly safe – a state bank. All it does is hold the money, makes it available on call, doesn’t loan it out nor pays interest on deposits. Such a bank would be supported via taxes and the money would be guaranteed.

                All private banks would be demoted to being financial institutions where depositors get to wear the risk as well as the rewards.

                • Nic the NZer

                  You should be aware by now that there is no material difference between a full reserve system and present arrangements. The central bank still needs to supply liquidity on demand with full reserve or the resulting banking system will suffer financial instability. Full reserve banking is a figment of the immagination at best as was monetarism (of which full reserve is version 2).

                  Any deposit secutity always has and always will come from a deposit guarantee by the CB.

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    The central bank still needs to supply liquidity on demand…

                    No it doesn’t.

                    with full reserve or the resulting banking system will suffer financial instability.

                    That’s what we have now and have always had with the private banking system.

                    Any deposit secutity always has and always will come from a deposit guarantee by the CB.

                    There was no deposit insurance prior to the Great Depression and it shouldn’t exist at all. If you take a risk then it’s you that should wear the loss when it fails and not the government.

                    EDIT:
                    BTW, I’ve never even suggested a full reserve system. I’m more in favour of a zero reserve system. When the money that you’ve loaned to the bank is on loaned you don’t get to use it.

              • Nic the NZer

                Can you name any government guaranteed banks where deposit holders lost deposits?

          • maui 1.2.1.1.3

            +1 Lara, thanks for pointing that out. My understanding is that the everyday Joe/Joelene is seen by the bank as an unsecured creditor. We have this cultural understanding that our money in the bank is untouchable, not true.

            http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/opinion/9988749/OBR-policy-a-scary-bank-secret

        • Nic the NZer 1.2.1.2

          Poor reading skills there Alwyn. Bill clearly said the bank would be covering its arses. Shareholders are still stuffed. His comment is a coloquial rendering of the RB policy at worst.

          This OBR policy is incredibly stupid. It increases incentives for a bank run to occur. Meanwhile it effectively costs the RB nothing to make good on a depositor guarantee as they issue the money supply. Who in their right mind believes that depositors make savy judgements about what their banks financial position is. Potentially incredibly destructive legislation.

          Deposit guarantees were created after the great depression to discourage bank runs.

          • alwyn 1.2.1.2.1

            I suggest that you can stick to your interpretation of what you think Bill was saying. Meanwhile I will stick to mine.
            Perhaps Bill might to enlighten both of us as to what he was meaning to say?

      • greywarshark 1.2.2

        Local green dollars committee did that and the outfit collapsed soon after. They had some crazy idea that it was more important to have the system with debits and credits in perfect balance than to have a system that worked fairly for people and was useful in bettering them.. So they thieved dollars earned and saved o put back into the system to balance the dollars spent that had been piling up.

        Financial organisers should not forget that money is stored credits representing worth for people and businesses, and needs to be moving backwards and forwards between debit and credit and never be in perfect equlibrium because that means nothing is happening that is registering on the official standard channels. When you have to reach into credits and take them for some purpose on paper there be dragons.

      • dave 1.2.3

        open bank resolution policy national not labour

    • burt 1.3

      Because no real steps were taken.

      Exactly, other than bailing out “too big to fail” corporates. Corrupt much !

  2. esoteric pineapples 2

    “it appears that the coal industry may be on its last legs”

    Good news for the rare flora and fauna of the Denniston Plateau. They should be killing that mining consent for good. I wonder what the present situation is there as in the following 2014 story:

    “Environmental groups were concerned Bathurst wanted to push ahead with preparatory work when there was no guarantee mining would follow.
    “Don’t go in there and actually destroy the place if there’s nothing coming from it – in that case there’s no winners,” Forest and Bird spokeswoman Debs Martin said.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/9763988/Denniston-mining-delayed-indefinitely

  3. geoff 3

    This is the end game of a consumer-driven economy when your consumers aren’t paid enough to consume.

    It’s like a farmer who stops feeding his cow and seems puzzled when it stops producing milk.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1

      A consumer driven society is unsustainable due to the all the consuming destroying the environment.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1

        Well, not really.

        A society that is built on sustainable consumption (as apparently the native American Indians were) is sustainable, while one that is built on unsustainable consumption (our own) isn’t.

        But that’s pretty much a tautology.

        • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1.1

          A sustainable society doesn’t actually consume. It’ll use the resources and then recycles them either through the environmental systems (Food) or through collecting and reusing already mined materials (Steel, aluminium, etc). It looks for ways to minimise resource use (Electric PT rather than personal cars).

          Our consumer driven society digs up the resources, uses them and then throws them away and often in a way that is destructive to the environment. It looks for ways to use more resources (Ever greater exports).

          • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1.1

            Depending on your definition of ‘consume’, sure.

            You’ve notably left out renewable resources such as wood and water, which are consumed, but can be replaced by planting new trees or ensuring the water cycle is not disrupted.

            • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1.1.1.1

              It’ll use the resources and then recycles them either through the environmental systems (Food)…

              The problem with our society is that consumes them and then doesn’t renew them often enough. Net result being the destruction of the environment.

            • Matthew Whitehead 3.1.1.1.1.2

              Unless you’re planning on combusting a large amount of hydrogen, water isn’t a “renewable” resource. In fact drinking water is sharply limited and is declining in availability.

              All resources, even “renewable” ones, still have a refresh rate. If we’re exceeding that rate it’s pure fiction to call the resource “renewable”.

        • Jones 3.1.1.2

          I think it might have something to do with energy output and how it is generated, and perhaps utilized. Not sure…

      • AmaKiwi 3.1.2

        And the consumer society is unsustainable because of our debts.

        If you have to wait until you have $500,000 to buy a house or $100,000 for a university education, no one could buy them. Before you can begin to save for those remember that every man, woman, and child in NZ is responsible for (owes) about $25,000 in public debt.

        We live in a credit fantasy land.

  4. alwyn 4

    I’m not sure that the RBS is really the greatest organisation to take advice from on these matters. It is obviously very experienced in such things but would you trust an organisation that went belly up to have got any better?
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/03/royal-bank-of-scotland-from-bailout-to-sell-off-rbs

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      Considering the way the economy continuously fails I’m not sure that listening to any bank is a great idea as they seem to be a main cause of the failure.

      • AmaKiwi 4.1.1

        Of course you should NOT listen to banks.

        Banks are profit making corporations who make their money by convincing us to buy on credit so we pay them interest. They are no different from drug companies, weapons makers, tobacco companies, oil & coal companies, fast food poisoners, and all the rest.

        Banks have NO interest in what is best for society.

    • Paul 4.2

      Would Morgan Stanley suffice then?

      ‘Morgan Stanley has said oil could fall to $20 a barrel, ‘

      Would Standard Chartered be up to your standards ?

      ‘while Standard Chartered has predicted an even bigger slide, to as low as $10. Standard said: “Given that no fundamental relationship is currently driving the oil market towards any equilibrium, prices are being moved almost entirely by financial flows caused by fluctuations in other asset prices, including the US dollar and equity markets.’

      Would UBS be a group you might listen to?

      ‘RBS is not alone in fearing trouble. UBS issued what it called a “significant change” to its house view late last week, saying policy chaos in China had unsettled markets. It cut exposure to equities from overweight to neutral on a “six-month tactical horizon”. It went underweight emerging markets.’

      Would Larry Summers have the necessary experience ?

      ‘Larry Summers, the former US Treasury Secretary, said it would be a mistake to dismiss the current financial squall as froth. Markets often sense a gathering storm when policy-makers are still asleep at the wheel. He has long argued that the world economy is so far out of kilter that it takes permanent financial bubbles to keep growth going, an inherently unstable structure.’

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12093807/RBS-cries-sell-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html

      • alwyn 4.2.1

        I’m not at all sure what you are asking me to agree with.

        If it is the proposal that oil prices will continue to fall, then I am quite happy to agree with the proposal. Would I buy oil or coal company shares? No I would not.
        Do I think that it will really matter if the oil price is low for a few years? I don’t think so, although Iran, the Kingdom and Venezuela may not have a happy time.

        Is it that Emerging markets are risky and the Chinese stock market is going to go down then again I would agree. However I don’t understand or know the details of the Chinese market and I don’t trust their Government so I don’t even think about investing there anyway.

        If it is that the entire world economy is going to go down the tubes and there are no shares that won’t fall, and companies who’s bottom line isn’t going to tumble then no I don’t accept that. I am sure there are companies both here, and overseas that are going to do just fine. Even if the market indexes fall in some countries by 20%, so what? I don’t invest in the index.

        The only time I have ever withdrawn completely from the stock market was the New Zealand market in 1986. I thought it was quite insane and I kept out of it for the next couple of years.

        On the other hand the only person apart from myself I have to satisfy is my wife and she has been quite happy with how we have done with our investments over many years now.

        • Puddleglum 4.2.1.1

          Fine, but it’s not just about finding viable investments for those with disposable cash/assets.

          It’s about economic recession, lost jobs, governments’ reduced desire to fund social services, etc..

        • Pat 4.2.1.2

          “f it is that the entire world economy is going to go down the tubes and there are no shares that won’t fall, and companies who’s bottom line isn’t going to tumble then no I don’t accept that. I am sure there are companies both here, and overseas that are going to do just fine. Even if the market indexes fall in some countries by 20%, so what? I don’t invest in the index.”

          so what?….well sadly the events you describe don’t happen in isolation…if the market indexes fall 20% in some countries or oil exporting economies go into meltdown then there are real tangible impacts on all, whether they invest in particular markets or companies…..something to do with demand, trade deflation and the circulation of money…..oh and default.

  5. Glenn 50 5

    Not just the Royal Bank of Scotland is getting pessimistic today.

    Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash.

    “Developments in the global economy will push the US back into recession,” Edwards told an investment conference in London. “The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/beware-great-2016-financial-crisis-warns-city-pessimist

  6. Sabine 6

    Coal Mine in the US filing for bankruptcy. Surely there is a cricket or a rugby game somewhere and besides t’is not us, so we be sweet ey bro?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-arch-coal-restructuring-idUSKCN0UP0MR20160111

    “Arch Coal, the second-largest U.S. coal miner, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday with a plan to cut $4.5 billion in debt from its balance sheet in the midst of a prolonged downturn in the coal industry.

    Arch Coal, saddled with debt since its 2011 acquisition of International Coal Group, has been suffering from a sharp drop in coal prices, stricter pollution controls, falling demand from China and increasing competition from natural gas.

    “Over the past several years, a confluence of economic challenges and regulatory hurdles has hobbled the coal industry,” Chief Financial Officer John Drexler said in a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in St. Louis on Monday.”

    • savenz 6.1

      @Sabine, that’s why our government 50 years behind the times is now trying to drum up speculation with oil. Always missing the boat, sometimes literally. Bankrupting Solid energy with greed to pretend they are good with economy… choke…

      Pike river and how safety standards, so low for workers….

      Fonterra still drys it’s milk powder with coal. NZ companies should try to move with the times – and these times say loud and clear, sustainability.

      • David 6.1.1

        “Fonterra still drys it’s milk powder with coal. NZ companies should try to move with the times – and these times say loud and clear, sustainability.”

        Please explain how you generate the required steam with renewables.

        • Liberal Realist 6.1.1.1

          David, you do know how to use a search engine, yes?

          http://lmgtfy.com/?q=how+to+generate+steam+with+renewable+energy

          • David 6.1.1.1.1

            I certainly do.

            Perhaps you would like us to follow the US and UK and burn food for fuel and call it green?

        • Naturesong 6.1.1.2

          Fonterra could, for instance, set up a solar lens (or an array) and be able to offset coal use on fine days.
          They don’t because at the moment it is profitable for Fonterra to pass the pollution and climate change costs onto the rest of us, our children, and subsequent generations.

          Large scale milk powder evaporation using coal is not a viable business model.
          Neither is PKE.

          That NZ dedicates a significant section our economy to the production of simple commodities is not just dumb, it exposes us to enormous risk should any of our trading partners’ economies run into trouble.

          Making businesses (and people, cities, communities etc.) accountable for the degradation, pollution and theft in their supply chains, extraction and processing of raw materials, labour practices, distribution and recycling is the goal.

          The only reason we don’t do this at the moment is because, for the most part, those who wield enormous capital are lazy and don’t seem to give a fuck.

          • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.2.1

            +1

          • AmaKiwi 6.1.1.2.2

            “The only reason we don’t do this at the moment is because,” . . . our MPs are OWNED by big business.

            How different our world would be if what we wanted for OUR children we wanted for ALL children.

          • David 6.1.1.2.3

            “Fonterra could, for instance, set up a solar lens (or an array) and be able to offset coal use on fine days.”

            Your funny. This would render dairy processing uneconomic. The cost of a single 50mw thermal solar plant is around $1bn, 50 times that of the equivalent coal plant.

            • Naturesong 6.1.1.2.3.1

              Concentrated solar power

              CSP is being widely commercialized and the CSP market has seen about 740 megawatt (MW) of generating capacity added between 2007 and the end of 2010. More than half of this (about 478 MW) was installed during 2010, bringing the global total to 1095 MW. Spain added 400 MW in 2010, taking the global lead with a total of 632 MW …

              There is considerable academic and commercial interest internationally in a new form of CSP, called STEM, for off-grid applications to produce 24 hour industrial scale power for mining sites and remote communities in Italy, other parts of Europe, Australia, Asia, North Africa and Latin America. STEM uses fluidized silica sand as a thermal storage and heat transfer medium for CSP systems. It has been developed by Salerno-based Magaldi Industries. The first commercial application of STEM will take place in Sicily from 2015.

              … CSP growth is expected to continue at a fast pace. As of January 2014, Spain had a total capacity of 2,300 MW

            • Naturesong 6.1.1.2.3.2

              Also:
              European Journal of Sustainable Development (2013), 2, 4, 131-140 ISSN: 2239-5938
              Application of Solar energy for sustainable Dairy
              Development

              And a random example of off the shelf industrial CSP products: Clique Solar

              And …

              You are an order of magnatude out on your solar boiler cost estimate: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=CSP+cost+per+MW

              • David

                “You are an order of magnatude out on your solar boiler cost estimate: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=CSP+cost+per+MW

                No I’m not. I was underestimating it but a large amount. There is a fundamental difference between a nameplate 50mw solar plant and coal plant. A coal plant will run roughly 99.7% of the time, producing close to nameplate output.

                A solar plant will for most of the time produce exactly zero energy. It will never produce nameplate capacity and given we are talking about the south island you’d be luck to see 20% of capacity. So, to get the same energy from a CSP solar plant you need one orders of magnitude bigger than the equivalent coal plant. It is a billion dollar investment at least.

                “European Journal of Sustainable Development (2013), 2, 4, 131-140 ISSN: 2239-5938
                Application of Solar energy for sustainable Dairy
                Development

                And a random example of off the shelf industrial CSP products: Clique Solar”

                This is the problem with using google as a substitute for a brain. Using solar to generate some hot water in India is likely to be a good idea, but what does this have to do with replacing coal as the primary energy used by the dairy industry in the south island?

                The reality is simple. If you demand coal be replaced with renewables then they will follow what the UK have done with DRAX and convert to biomass and start burning trees. That way the energy is renewable, sustainable and ‘green’. Of course we will be burning forests imported from Canada, but what kind of environmentalist cares about forests?

                • Colonial Viper

                  Dude, the solar industry figured out a long time ago that they have to figure in night time etc in to their calculations of power output.

                  Your implicit assumption that they are stupid and don’t know the difference between ‘max power’ and ‘typical power’ or ‘average power’ is pretty fucking condescending and says a lot about where you are coming from.

                  The other thing you are pointing out: industrial scale corporate agriculture is finished without fossil fuels.

                  Plenty of us already knew that, sillybilly.

                  • David

                    “Dude, the solar industry figured out a long time ago that they have to figure in night time etc in to their calculations of power output.”

                    Well,shit who knew?

                    “Your implicit assumption that they are stupid and don’t know the difference between ‘max power’ and ‘typical power’ or ‘average power’ is pretty fucking condescending and says a lot about where you are coming from.”

                    I made no such assumption. I was quoting Nameplate ratings, this is how power plants are measured and that rating DOES NOT factor in the actual availability. I’ll even condescendingly provide a link;

                    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nameplate_capacity

                    “The other thing you are pointing out: industrial scale corporate agriculture is finished without fossil fuels.

                    Plenty of us already knew that, sillybilly.”

                    Which is fine, if that’s what your goal is, say so. Don’t hide behind the ‘renewables BS.

                • The example I gave was current off the shelf solar tech being used to make milk powder.

                  Yes, it is in India. Seems reasonable that the largest dairy producer in the world would be at the forefront of dairy tech*.

                  As far as your costings:

                  Ivanpah, including a profit margin for BrightSource, is estimated to cost $2.2B for 392 megawatts (370 megawatts net)

                  So $1.5B per 50 MW asserted by your good self, compared with $2.2b for 370MW in 2011.
                  Feel free to get current costings for a CSP plant to refute my point.

                  * I know this is not necessarily true. New Zealand is the largest dairy exporter, and our dairy industry relies on turning NZ into a complete shithole and assuming that citizenry is not going to start blowing up Fonterra factories in response.

                  • David

                    “The example I gave was current off the shelf solar tech being used to make milk powder.
                    Yes, it is in India. Seems reasonable that the largest dairy producer in the world would be at the forefront of dairy tech*.”

                    It’s not used to produce milk powder. The applications in India are liquid milk only, there is a huge amount more energy required to dry milk powder compared to the pasteurization of liquid milk.

                    “As far as your costings:

                    Ivanpah, including a profit margin for BrightSource, is estimated to cost $2.2B for 392 megawatts (370 megawatts net)

                    So $1.5B per 50 MW asserted by your good self, compared with $2.2b for 370MW in 2011.
                    Feel free to get current costings for a CSP plant to refute my point.”

                    You have missed the point. To get a equivalent of a 50mw coal plant in terms of actual energy output per year, you would need a 250-500mw solar plant, as well as a dairy plant that can produce everything in 6hrs, rather than 24hrs.

                    The average capacity factor for a solar plant in the UK is 10.2%, that means a 50mw solar plant will only produce 5mw capacity over the year.

                    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor

                    As like I said, the only renewable option that would actually work is biomass. Burning logs in other words.

                    • The links I provided weren’t random.

                      If you had skimmed through them you would have found the answers to your questions;
                      On the CliqueSolar page you will see that milk powder is dried using their implementation of CSP.

                      And the other item I pointed out to you earlier was STEM uses fluidized silica sand as a thermal storage and heat transfer medium for CSP systems. It has been developed by Salerno-based Magaldi Industries.

                      Now I think we agree that CSP is currently relatively more expensive than coal.
                      Once you add the externals incurred during the running of a coal plant (CO’2, particulates, destruction of critical infrastructure), CSP is starting to look better.

                      This will improve – the greatest 21’st century tech advances will be in efficiency and conversion of energy use.

                      It’s also worth asking the question at this point whether destroying our waterways, beaches, spawning grounds and shellfish is a appropriate cost for us to bear so fonterra can make a profit?

                    • David

                      “If you had skimmed through them you would have found the answers to your questions;
                      On the CliqueSolar page you will see that milk powder is dried using their implementation of CSP.”

                      No it isn’t. The CliqueSolar system only produces hot water.

                      And again, what relevance is this to a completely different climate in the south island of NZ, with an energy requirement on a vastly different scale?

                      “And the other item I pointed out to you earlier was STEM uses fluidized silica sand as a thermal storage and heat transfer medium for CSP systems. It has been developed by Salerno-based Magaldi Industries.”

                      Fantastic, you know this makes solar even more expensive don’t you? Also utterly pointless for the south island of NZ, it’s never going to work there, it would be cheaper to pipe the steam from Australia where solar is a far more realistic option. If you want a renewable option in the next decade or two, it’s going to be burning trees.

                      “It’s also worth asking the question at this point whether destroying our waterways, beaches, spawning grounds and shellfish is a appropriate cost for us to bear so fonterra can make a profit?”

                      Let’s just shut down all industry while your at it.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      David, can you honestly not imagine a situation where industries (yes even NZ dairy farms) uphold high environmental standards, despite the fact of numerous examples thereof?

                      Let’s all just pause for a moment in charitable silence for David’s crippled imagination and blithering ignorance of Earth.

                    • David

                      “David, can you honestly not imagine a situation where industries (yes even NZ dairy farms) uphold high environmental standards, despite the fact of numerous examples thereof?”

                      High standards are perfectly possible, zero impact is not.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      That sounds nice. In practice, when people like you say “high” they mean “wading quality”.

                      I don’t see why we should sacrifice anything to suit useless lazy incompetent troughers who can’t make a buck without shitting in rivers.

                      Let them all go bankrupt and get bought out by all the competent responsible farmers. That way we can clean up the rivers and strangle the National Party’s bribe machine at the same time.

          • David 6.1.1.2.4

            “Large scale milk powder evaporation using coal is not a viable business model.”

            BTW, if you believe this I imagine you are shorting all the dairy companies that are pouring hundreds of millions into exactly this business model?

            • Naturesong 6.1.1.2.4.1

              Which costs more, money or extinction?

            • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.2.4.2

              BTW, if you believe this I imagine you are shorting all the dairy companies that are pouring hundreds of millions into exactly this business model?

              Too early to do that know. When you are shorting a dying industry timing is everything. Coal is gone in about 40-50 years and so is phosphate rock; so I’d wait.

              In the mean time however, the Chinese, Russian and Indian dairy industry is going to eat our lunch.

  7. savenz 7

    Sounds accurate to me.

    Of course under TPPA, companies can sue governments for ‘anticipated profits’. So companies can get some corporate welfare guarantees in the downturn to keep those company directors huge bonuses coming in.

    A friend of mine who has been in the stockmarket for years and actually got out days before the crash of 1984, was saying now they did not believe shares were viable for small investors these days as everything was geared towards large institutional share holders and they controlled everything and ripped off small players.

    Personally have zero interest in shares and wished the governments had not bailed out the banks in the US as the banks and finance companies learnt nothing from it and they are still up to the same tricks as before with less accountability, while making many people poorer.

    • “A friend of mine who has been in the stockmarket for years and actually got out days before the crash of 1984, was saying now they did not believe shares were viable for small investors these days as everything was geared towards large institutional share holders and they controlled everything and ripped off small players.”

      Spot on; they’ll have advised a select few to hedge accordingly, and they’ll swoop on the spoils when those prices hit rock bottom.

    • alwyn 7.2

      Out of curiosity where did this “the crash of 1984” happen? The New Zealand share market boomed in 1984, 1985 and 1986. The crash was in 1987.
      If you really believe that “large institutional share holders and they controlled everything” exist how do you explain why the Chinese Government, the largest institutional investor of all in China, CAN’T control the market?

      • I assumed savenz meant ’87 rather than ’84 there…

      • Lara 7.2.2

        Exactly.

        I was trying to make the same point on another post, about the Chinese sharemarket.

        If it is true that large investors are manipulating the markets fully all the time (as I hear claimed every bloody day) then how come the CCP can’t stop their market falling?

        They write the rules. They have a large portion of funds in that market under their control. They don’t have the niceties of having to operate within a democracy with all the hassle of checks and balances to power.

        They’re as close to a God of Markets there ever will be.

        And yet it falls.

  8. greywarshark 8

    The consumer driven society seeking to use its money (credits) which some have acquired far in excess of their reasonable needs and are at the same time wishing to speculate with earnings now paying for investments which will be in future demand is driving up house prices. The idea of being a rentier and making money while sipping cold drinks by a pool somewhere or working hard at a computer, searching for future prospects is helping to dehouse NZ people, also in other countries as properties become the only reliable investment.

    Some reports on the bubble that is NZ property.
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11483627
    NZ Herald 20 July 2015
    New Zealand’s lack of overseas investment regulation is being promoted in Shanghai and Hong Kong to help sell apartments rising on the site of the country’s best-known record store.

    “NO stamp duties and property purchase tax, NO capital gains tax on residential property if sold after two years of holding,” Colliers International says advertising Queens Square, a 226-unit block promoted as on “the Nanjing Road of Auckland” and to rise on Real Groovy’s Queen St site near Karangahape Rd.

    This country’s liberal regime, unusual internationally, is being promoted in that ad for the block by New Zealand developer Robert Holden’s Conrad Properties.

    http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/5179/no-unaffordability-for-renters-nzpif
    Compared to rents and incomes, New Zealand houses are among the most overvalued in the world, Economist magazine says.
    In a new report, it says New Zealand houses are 74% overvalued compared to rents, the third-worst out of the 23 nations surveyed, behind Canada and Hong Kong.
    Compared to incomes, houses were 30% overvalued, fourth behind Canada, Australia and Belgium.
    New Zealand’s house prices were also some of the fastest growing in the world, up 7.3% over a year, the sixth fastest.
    But the New Zealand Property Investors Federation said there was no affordability crisis for renters.

    https://www.apartmentspecialists.co.nz/new-zealands-smallest-apartment/

    Auckland’s property market pushes NZ up Asia-Pacific house price index
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11476475
    Martin Bradbury’s comments on it.
    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2015/07/20/lack-of-overseas-investment-regulation-promoted-in-shanghai-and-hong-kong/

    Apparent dodgy dealing to get property by Chinese interests have added to the concern that NZ feel about a land grab.
    23 November 2015 May Wang is back on trial (Crafar farms etc.)
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11549789
    Failed Crafar Farms bidder and fraud case defendant May Wang was back in the High Court at Auckland today as evidence was taken for her trial, which has begun in Hong Kong.
    Wang, with co-accused Keen Chen and Wenjye Yee, face charges for conspiracy to defraud laid by Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).

    http://www.interest.co.nz/property/rent-or-buy
    Rent or buy?
    The Rent or Buy report for October 2015 – New Zealand
    30 November 2015
    A monthly assessment of renting a property versus taking out a mortgage.

  9. Paul 9

    Has The Crash of 2016 Now Begun? What Can & Should Be Done?

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      Pretty sure you will be able to find interviews of US pundits at the start of each year since 2009 asking “has the crash of 20xx now begun?”

  10. katipo 10

    One big cause of all this instability is that most of the worlds money is sloshing around & being gambled with in the Worlds derivatives markets by the likes of the Bank of Scotland & its fellow “too big to fail” investment banks e.g. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JPM, Merrill Lynch & Goldman Sachs etc…
    These problems were never addressed after the last GFC and they have only gotten worse since then.

    http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

  11. sabine 11

    anyone care to comment on this? I don’t know much about these sorts o’things, but i find it rather interesting.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-11/nothing-moving-baltic-dry-crashes-insiders-warn-commerce-has-come-halt

    • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1

      Zerohedge have predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions. They have a truly Ken Ring level of credibility.

      • Lanthanide 11.1.1

        +1

        Funny how it’s not October, yet the markets are going all wobbly anyway.

      • mickysavage 11.1.2

        You should go and buy some shares given your sunny optimism. Of course there is nothing wrong and we will all be rich, soon …

      • sabine 11.1.3

        I am referring to this

        http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

        there seems to be a drop and by drop you could call it also cliff.

      • Colonial Viper 11.1.4

        Zerohedge have predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions. They have a truly Ken Ring level of credibility.

        Oh very clever.

        Are you saying life for the ordinary American, Canadian, Australian, NZer has not been deteriorating and becoming more financially insecure over the last 5 years?

        Make up your mind. So what there has been no recession for the 1%.

        For most other people life has been getting consistently tougher.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1.4.1

          Nope, what I’m saying is perfectly clear. You seem to be able to hallucinate a whole bunch of things I’m not saying from it. Are you ok?

          Here’s a concept that may seem strange to you: it is possible to get a feel for what is happening in the world’s financial markets and notice that Zero Hedge has zero credibility. I can even do these things simultaneously!

    • vaughan little 11.2

      zerohedge is a waste of time. sometimes they’ll smack a nail so fantastically on the head that they get picked up in other media, but that’s the limit of their appeal imo. make a lot of dud calls.

      • Colonial Viper 11.2.1

        As many dud calls than the financial analysts and forecasters in the Mainstream Media, mate?

        • Lanthanide 11.2.1.1

          More, actually.

          Your rate of being correct is much higher if you predict the sun will rise today, because it did yesterday, rather than predicting the end of the world is approaching as zero hedge does every other week.

  12. dave 12

    there was no recovery from 2008 it was papered over with massive money printing
    that flowed into bubbles all over the place Auckland housing market being the best local example i really worry about new Zealand the population has went on a credit binge
    and this stupid government put all our eggs into china. debt is higher now than 2008
    we’ve had a government who are only skilled in the four Ds ,deflect .deny, decisive ,distort sun has set on the brighter future the future has already got a mortgage thanks to the baby boomer’s .

    i think he got it spot on 2 years ago
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/04/17/12-reasons-why-new-zealands-economic-bubble-will-end-in-disaster/#2715e4857a0b5ce0cf63796c

    • Pat 12.1

      and ominously near zero % interest rates (or in case of ECB negative)

    • Scott M 12.2

      Printing money was the right thing to do. Except that the printed money should have been funnelled through the government on stimulus programs/infrastructure and the like. I do agree that the central banks also need to allow some correction to be made to provide more accountability in the banking sector.

  13. Nick K 13

    Both the DOW and China’s stockmarket are coming off big highs and bull runs. The drops are merely returning some normalcy to things.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      Pfffft, are the central banks going to allow true price discovery to occur in the marketplace? No way.

  14. Colonial Viper 14

    So Lefties, why not double down on Labour’s KiwiSaver scheme and send more NZ workers wages into the Wall St casino to make the investment bankers rich?

  15. Not sure where to put this ?
    Could go under TPPA maybe ie no trade no deal 😉
    Are we getting this info on our media?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-11/nothing-moving-baltic-dry-crashes-insiders-warn-commerce-has-come-halt
    The continued collapse of The Baltic Dry Index remains ignored by most – besides we still have Netflix, right? But, as Dollar Vigilante’s Jeff Berwick details, it appears the worldwide ‘real’ economy has ground to a halt!!

    Last week, I received news from a contact who is friends with one of the biggest billionaire shipping families in the world. He told me they had no ships at sea right now, because operating them meant running at a loss.

    This weekend, reports are circulating saying much the same thing: The North Atlantic has little or no cargo ships traveling in its waters. Instead, they are anchored. Unmoving. Empty.

    You can see one such report here. According to it,

    Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving.

    This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.
    We checked VesselFinder.com and it appears to show no ships in transit anywhere in the world. We aren’t experts on shipping, however, so if you have a better site or source to track this apparent phenomenon, please let us know.
    follow the link for more.

    • alwyn 15.1

      “Are we getting this info on our media?”
      I linked from the zerohedge site you linked to the next one where they seemed to have picked the story up from. They would seem to be nutters. The site, and story, is at the following website.
      https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750
      Do you really want this material appearing in our media?
      Look at some of the other stories they are promoting.

  16. Oh and with over 100 million barrels of oil sitting in tankers around the world, looking for customers, costing around $4.00 a barrel ??? for the next 6 months or so? for storage ??? I think ??? , and if it keeps going down …. every $1 = $100 million.
    What are the chances of something going wrong, would they pull up anchor and move if a storm ‘might’ come their way?

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Excess oil production is currently sitting at about 2% of total global daily use.

      It won’t take much to turn around into a shortage again.

      • Lanthanide 16.1.1

        Oil storage has reached an all-time high in the US, and storage in Europe is 97% full. It is highly likely storage capacity is going to be exceeded sometime in the next 3 months, potentially bringing oil prices down to $10 a barrel.

  17. Thinking Right 17

    I do think the world markets are heading into rough waters this year.

    I have recently changed the investment strategy for my super from Growth to Stable as I suspect that there may be some ructions on sharemarkets this year.

    I suspect a lot of it is driven due to the plaster solutions imposed in 2008 coming back to bite.

    I dunno how the US are going to handle it as their response last time was to borrow massively and to print money.

    Also China appears to be the problem this time so I can’t imagine that they will have several trillion lying around to lend to the US this time even if they want to.

    Part of me is happy that it is likely to hit during Obama’s reign as the economic incompetence of his administration has helped to contribute to the current economic climate.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      Also China appears to be the problem this time so I can’t imagine that they will have several trillion lying around to lend to the US this time even if they want to.

      China has been a net seller of US Treasuries over the last couple of years. I agree with you that they do not intend to become net buyers again.

      Part of me is happy that it is likely to hit during Obama’s reign as the economic incompetence of his administration has helped to contribute to the current economic climate.

      Obama prioritised giving trillions to the big banks, which is exactly the same as what the Republicans would have done. This is simply because the banksters are amongst the biggest $$$ contributors to both parties.

      Further, Obama continues to push for trade agreements which will export more US manufacturing jobs. Which is exactly what the Republicans would have done.

      • AmaKiwi 17.1.1

        Obama’s argument for TPPA is it will “contain China.”

        So it’s not about “free market capitalism.” Obama admits TPPA’s purpose is patriotic US economic imperialism.

        It won’t work. Does anyone really think small countries living on China’s doorstep are going to kiss Uncle Sam’s ass and spit in the face of their giant neighbor?

        Global empires are not necessarily defeated by a satanic opponent. Often they collapse from their own egotistical over expansion and internal corruption: USSR, Britain, Spain, Rome, and probably others I am less familiar with.

      • Naturesong 17.1.2

        Obama prioritised giving trillions to the big banks, which is exactly the same as what the Republicans would have done

        It is actually what the Republicans did.

        Candidate Obama did express support for the plan, but is was George W Bush who signed Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 into law.

        Matt Taibbi’s 4th Jan 2013 article is worth a read.

        No one comes out of it looking good.

  18. Pat 18

    “But most people, including RBS, are overestimating the impact of China on the rest of the world. It will have a negligible effect in terms of growth in the developed world. In terms of inflation, it will have profound consequences through lower commodity and oil prices. It will also harm UK and western manufactured exports as China’s goods become cheaper and ultimately force workers in industries that compete with China to accept lower wages.”……read “deflation”

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/rbs-forecast-doom-global-economy-2016

  19. Scott M 19

    Always wondered why allowing merchant banks to fail was seen as a big deal.

    The banks collapse. Loans are forgiven. People move on with their lives.

    Whats the problem?

  20. Pat 20

    banks collapse…depositors lose savings/investments, business lose services cashflow, money lost from economy, debt not forgiven….reality is people don’t move on with their lives, but as was demonstrated during the great depression in the US as 1000s of banks did fold (not too big to fail) suicide and destitution is a frequent response not to mention the resulting war….you could have all sorts of political/national responses but confidence would be destroyed and as we know confidence (some would say over) is the foundation of our economic system

    • Scott M 20.1

      You will note I referred to merchant banks, not vanilla banks holding mom and pop savings.

      “Money lost from economy” – no credit lost from economy
      “Debt not forgiven” – whats stopping the central bank buying and writing off such debt?

      In the 1930s the deflation wasnt handled well. This is why Bernanke did what he did to avoid austerity and depression.

      • Pat 20.1.1

        you will note the blurring of banking operations that most retail banks have an investment arm and are also performing the function of traditional merchant banks…..how do you propose to separate these organizations in the event of collapse?

        you will further note I did not say currency will be lost, I said money ( in its various forms)…there are real life consequences to the loss of virtual credit.

        debt is not forgiven (it may be restructured) but in theory a central bank could assume that debt and write it off….Im unaware of a precedent and can imagine the shit fight it would cause at the Reserve…there have historically been severe strings to any major debt restructuring (Greece is a great example modern term)

        Bernanke kicked the can down the road is all

        • Scott M 20.1.1.1

          I dont know the answer, where was all the printed money directed? Just into govt. bonds or did they feed it in to the dodgy banks also?

          If the latter then yes he did make a mistake.

          • Pat 20.1.1.1.1

            apparently a lot has fed the sharemarkets (and bonds)…what is apparent is it hasn’t been lent to productive business expansion, consequently its not having the impact desired…we truly are in the shit

          • Colonial Viper 20.1.1.1.2

            The major institutions/Primary Dealers able to access the ‘Fed Window’ could access an essentially limitless amount of money at less than 0.5% interest rates i.e. basically free money.

            • Scott M 20.1.1.1.2.1

              How ridiculous. Feed money to the very people who made the mess in the first place.

              The incompetence is breathtaking isnt it.

              • Pat

                yes but those people/organisations were supposed to flood the productive sector with all that printed money and inflate the debt away….as its turned out it is somewhat like giving the keys of the drug cabinet to an addict.

              • Colonial Viper

                its not all incompetence, though is it. Very smart people are creating systems and decisions which greatly benefit the oligarchy.

              • AmaKiwi

                “The incompetence is breathtaking.”

                No. The corruption is breathtaking.

                They are NOT stupid. They are clever, ruthless crooks.

                The stupid crooks go to jail. The clever crooks own “The Right Honorable MPs” who pass laws to make their monopolistic thefts 100% legal.

  21. vto 21

    It is surprising that people are surprised at this. It has been clear since well before the GFC. People need to take big-picture views of these kinds of times rather than try and navigate any detail. And especially not listen to any organisation with vested interests, such as bank economists or politicians.

    China’s problems will spark the final inferno of our current financial system and its ridiculous debt structures.

    It is what will end up replacing or repairing the current system that is of interest. What is that going to be? Because it sure as hell aint going to be the same as now.

    Oh, but the Auckland housing market will always go up…. immigration and populatin growth eh…… yeah, nah, watch the immigration and population growth stop dead soon.

    • Pat 21.1

      “yeah, nah, watch the immigration and population growth stop dead soon.’

      ….except for the climate change refugees that is.

      • Colonial Viper 21.1.1

        we need to up our naval power to prevent randoms sailing to our country.

        • Pat 21.1.1.1

          what happens when one of those randoms arrive in a missile cruiser or even a well equipped destroyer

          • Colonial Viper 21.1.1.1.1

            we will be their friends and work out mutually beneficial deals

            • Pat 21.1.1.1.1.1

              lol…i suspect we will behave exactly as europe are….and as they will as time goes on….and none of it will be pretty

              • Colonial Viper

                I just remember that NZ MPs visited Communist China before those of any other western nation; we happily traded with the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War. Basically NZ has and can stay on side with the major powers of the 21st century. Which this century will also include the likes of India.

                • Pat

                  that was a stable world….post ww2 at any rate

                  • AmaKiwi

                    “that was a stable world….post ww2 at any rate”

                    Either that was before your time or you haven’t read much history.

                    It was NOT a stable time at all.

                    • Pat

                      some of it was before my time…some not…historians point to the relative stability created by the Cold War stand off….trade both inter and intra national grew exponentially post ww2 ….and there wasn’t the existential threat of climate change ( or rather it wasn’t understood)

                    • Colonial Viper

                      some of it was before my time…some not…historians point to the relative stability created by the Cold War stand off….

                      That’s said in retrospect. You are talking about the “stability” of everyone in a room pointing guns at each other. Yes, that’s a “stable” situation, in a manner of speaking.

                      During those decades there were incidents every few years (some deliberate, some accidental) which could have led to full scale nuclear war. And it wasn’t that stable if you lived in an area of the world the great powers decided that they were going to play the great game in.

                    • Pat

                      of course its in retrospect……how else could it be unless you had a (working) crystal ball….that does not change the facts nor do non eventuating threats…..(which still have the potential to occur i may add.)

                      as already noted in my (brief) reply it was also a period of unprecedented growth in trade and also the impact of CC…..both of which I note remain unaddressed

  22. Paul 22

    Uber bear Albert Edwards’ market warning: There will be carnage.
    Albert Edwards, the “uber bear” of economic predictions, has warned of “global deflation and recession” in his latest notes to clients, predicting that US stocks could lose almost three-quarters of their value.
    He argued that investors would “reap the whirlwind” of central bank attempts to support their respective economies with looser monetary policy.
    “The impossible trilogy of maintaining an independent domestic monetary policy and a semi-fixed exchange rate while loosening capital account restrictions is hitting home,” he said.
    Chinese companies have prepared themselves for a further fall in the yuan, Mr Edwards claimed, putting the country in “a better position to transmit a massive deflationary shock”.
    Western manufacturing “will choke under this imported deflationary tourniquet”, he continued. “When an economy is hurtling towards recession it is almost always the manufacturing sector that takes the less volatile services sector by the hand and leads it into a recessionary underworld.”
    Continuing his pessimistic analysis, Mr Edwards suggested that stocks would soon fall from their “obscene” levels. As Mr Edwards admits, “most believe a 75pc equity bear market to be impossible”, yet he predicts that the S&P 500 gauge of US stocks could fall to 550, from its recent 2,100 peak. His views put him starkly at odds with the Wall Street consensus.
    The bear market of 2009 “was not completed”, Mr Edwards said, arguing that it would take further economic downturns for equities to come down. “That obviously will be a catastrophe for the economy via the wealth effect and all the Fed’s QE hard work will turn to dust,” he continued.
    Mr Edwards believes that this coming collapse would result in a “trade war not unlike that in the 1930s”, mirroring the deflationary bust and trade war of the Great Depression era. “I realise most people think I am talking utter garbage but I’m used to that,” he added. His calls do not chime with mainstream economists, who believe that US GDP will rise by 2.6pc this year.
    “I believe the Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 global financial crisis,” he concluded.
    Global disinflation could morph into global deflation this year, Mr Roberts said, as conditions appear “very dangerous for every investor in the world”.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11573683

  23. Paul 23

    NZ sharemarket suffers another dose of jitters

    The New Zealand sharemarket has had another bout of weakness following a sharp fall on Wall Street.
    By midday the benchmark NZX 50 index had fallen about 66 points, or 1.1 percent, to 6086.
    The fall followed a renewed slide on American share markets, as a slump in oil stocks and continuing fears about China weigh on sentiment.
    Brent crude oil, which is used as a benchmark, briefly slipped below $US30 a barrel – its lowest level for nearly twelve years – after a report suggested that American fuel stockpiles had increased. It fell as low as $US 29.96 before recovering.
    US markets closed as much as 3 percent lower, and expectations are that Australia and Asia will also have a weak session.
    All but eight stocks in the NZX 50 index fell this morning, and the market has fallen nearly 4 percent so far this year.
    New Zealand shares had a dose of the jitters on the first two trading days of the year following a slump in Chinese stocks.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/294065/nz-sharemarket-suffers-another-dose-of-jitters

  24. im right 24

    Ahhh another ‘doom and gloom’ headline, ripped from anywhere on the planet, that suits your narrative of hoping and praying the NZ economy tanks as it’s the only way you guys on the left have a chance of winning an election this side of 2020.

    Seem to remember you were all on board when the Greens were espoucing Peak Oil and upwards of $200 a barrel making it too expensive to run a car etc etc….what have we now? $30 a barrel and to slide further, according to experts, and stay low for next few years…ohh dear, bad news for the Greens, strangely quiet on this.

    Police being equipped with Tasers, again all doom and gloom from Hone, Keith Locke and the usual lefties all having the usual faux outrage about ‘brown people’ being tasered left right and centre and ‘for fun’ by the police (Hone’s rhetoric)….and it turned out the taser stats for the year 2014, I believe, they was presented less than 20 times and used about 5 or 6 times….hmmm again nothing from Hone/Keith or the left in general.

    You guys love ‘The sky is falling’ tid bits, trouble you have is you have all cried wolf too often and the public has, for last 7 years, and will, for next 6 years, ignore you.

    • vto 24.1

      The ‘public’ will soon be eating shit because of said ignorance

      as it always does

      if you know your history

      which I strongly suspect you don’t

    • Colonial Viper 24.2

      For a right winger you seem to have a whole lot of trust that the authorities are not going to misuse their ever greater powers of coercion and force.

      Pretty stupid.

      Seem to remember you were all on board when the Greens were espoucing Peak Oil and upwards of $200 a barrel making it too expensive to run a car etc etc….what have we now? $30 a barrel and to slide further,

      LOL the price of something marks what the expected state of the market is today and tomorrow. For you to think that it represents a permanent situation marks you as a low quality righty.

      By the way, demand for oil across the world remains very flat. Guess why. Because the world economy can barely afford oil even at $35 bb.

      • AmaKiwi 24.2.1

        CV, there’s actually some very good news here. A big 2015 surprise is that while plummeting energy prices should have crashed the renewable energy businesses, the opposite happened. (story in Bloomberg yesterday)

    • ropata 24.3

      yes, because capitalism is inherently unstable, genius

      ever heard of the GFC? or the collapse of Greece & Iceland? Lehmann bros? Merrill Lynch? mass unemployment across the US & UK?
      ever heard of demand destruction or overproduction?
      ever heard of QE1,2,3 (4 coming soon)?

      all symptoms of your beloved neoliberal orthodoxy, that has been disproven over and over and over. yet f*ckwits like you keep on throwing money after Enron-like ponzi schemes. and that’s what the global economy has become…

      • Colonial Viper 24.3.1

        Although there is an argument to be made that “capitalism” has long collapsed into a kind of crony, manipulated, monopolistic plutocracy without any true price discovery or balance of risk/reward which characterises true capitalism.

    • Pat 24.4

      “You guys love ‘The sky is falling’ tid bits, trouble you have is you have all cried wolf too often and the public has, for last 7 years, and will, for next 6 years, ignore you.’

      we are the public you twat….at least I am…are you perhaps a bot?

  25. Scott M 25

    In a time like this how do you value a company on the sharemarket. Many remain well run viable businesses, but how to spot over valuation?

    • Colonial Viper 25.1

      Stick to the basics of fundamental analysis, and methodologies for identifying well run companies which are being severely undervalued by the market.

    • ropata 25.2

      I’ve read from some commentators that the entire US stock market is insanely overvalued (by 3 or 4 times) because of ridiculous amounts of QE cash looking for a place to go

    • Colonial Viper 26.1

      NZ politicians are still so far behind the times its not worth figuring out the distance.

  26. kushal kumar 27

    Global – This Vedic astrology writer read news item a few days ago which said that IMF Chief , Christine Lagarde had opined : “ The global economy growth in year 2016 will be disappointing”. In this regard , this writer would like to say that the opinion of IMF Chief comes to the same point predicted by this writer about 18 months ago in monumental article – “ Stressful times ahead for world economy in 2015 and 2016” – published on 2 June 2014 in online magazine (blog) astrologyweekly.com. Briefly speaking , while the predictions made for the period passed so far in relation to gone bye year 2015 have come substantially accurate , for the coming year 2016 , this was predicted : “ However , a major cause of concern may arise in November 2015 to July 2016”. Further added : “Thus major concern could surface in global economy in first half of 2016”. Thought readers may like to know.

  27. Pat 28

    “US industrial production down for third month

    The US industrial production data are also bad. Output fell for the third month in a row, by 0.4% in December, after a downwardly revised 0.9% decline in November. Production was held back by a strong dollar and cutbacks made by energy firms in the wake of plunging oil prices.

    Taken together with the worse-than-expected retail sales figures, they paint a worse economic picture in the last three months of 2015.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2016/jan/15/oil-prices-slide-back-towards-30-heading-for-10-weekly-loss-business-live

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    Over the next week or two we will be running three synopses of parts of the opening chapter of John Smith’s Imperialism in the 21st Century (New York, Monthly Review Press, 2016).  The synopsis and commentary below is written by Phil Duncan. Marx began Capital not with a sweeping historical ...
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  • Still juking the stats
    The State Services Commission and Ombudsman have released another batch of OIA statistics, covering the last six months. Request volumes are up, and the core public service is generally handling them within the legal timeframe, though this may be because they've learned to extend rather than just ignore things. And ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

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