Some Epsom arithmetic
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- Date published:
11:00 am, April 17th, 2011 - 8 comments
Categories: Politics -
Tags: epsom, Rodney Hide
Unsurprisingly it’s taking the nats a wee while to decide who to stand in Epsom. I’d imagine that’s because they’re struggling with the maths.
For instance they could stand somebody weak in Epsom to try to get Rodney and ACT back in. But the problem there is that at current polling that’s likely to mean no more than two seats for the price of one and putting up with Rodney Hide for just one extra seat would strain just about anyone. There’s also the risk Epsom would revolt and bring in the weak candidate or, god forbid, the vote will split and a Labour candidate will win.
Also the value of a separate but small right wing party in parliament may be attractive enough to National to override the negatives of Rodney Hide. In the medium to long term it’s no bad thing for national to have ACT in parliament making them look centrist and it’s unlikely that ACT will draw much off National’s vote for a very long time.
On the other hand they could stand a good candidate such as Tim Groser (who is already rumoured to be interested). That means no Rodney and no ACT. But the risk here is that if National doesn’t get enough seats to govern alone the Maori Party will have them over a barrel.
I think that whatever the outcome the nats will leave their decision to the absolute latest possible time because so much of the decision depends on the numbers.
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In the NBR, Hooton was saying that polling has Hide losing to a generic Nat candidate by 30%.
Interestingly, Hooton it was Hide’s idea that Groser should stand in Epsom because he is so highly ranked that Epsomites could be certain he would be in Parliament even if they vote for Hide – meaning Espom gets two Tories for the price of one ad hide gets back in.
Problem with that is Groser is doing quite well as New Lynn’s Nat already.
Is there anything that can override the negatives of Rodney Hide?
Would Auckland voters from Epsom or any part of Auckland reward Rodney Hide for the process leading up to the amalgamation?
Is he looked on favourably in Epsom?
I don’t know the answers…..I just can’t see how any sane person would reward Hide for what he did.
Nope.
Last I heard – Nope.
That appears to be Nationals thought as well. About the only way I can see Epsom voting Hide in would be if National didn’t stand a candidate in Epsom at all and if they did that the chances are the electorate would go to Labour or NZ 1st. It would be far too much gerrymandering for people to ignore.
Tim Groser should be an acceptable choice for Labour and Green voters, who would be stupid to vote for the Labour or Green candidates. Aaron Bhatnagar on the other hand would drive the National supporters to vote for Hide again. Maybe that’s what the Nats want.
If you’re a masochist (or just live in Epsom) you can hear Key waffling and wriggling on this topic at his press conference today:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1104/S00128/pms-presser-18411-some-you-win-epsom-you-wont-say.htm
Somehow he has got to keep this “will he, won’t he?” farce going for another seven months!
Pretty much looked to me like Hooten was wrong wrongitty wrong wrong.