The Very Bad Slightly Good Things About the Russian Invasion

Written By: - Date published: 8:49 pm, September 25th, 2022 - 8 comments
Categories: energy, Europe, food, International, Russia, uncategorized - Tags:

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine has cost tens of thousands of people their lives, millions of people their homes, seriously disrupted billions of people,  and increased the threat of nuclear war.

But…

Let’s go briefly through European Union energy security, materials security, food security, social cohesion, and cooperation. All pretty necessary to make any kind of transition let alone one with any justice to it.

Energy

While Russia has cut off gas supplies to Europe, Europe is forming a tighter and larger energy generation and distribution system. The North Seas Countries’ Offshore Grid is in operation.

The offshore wind farms across the North Sea are staggering in their size and capacity.

Further links from the UK grid to Morocco have already assembled plans and investors.

European countries that have depended on Russian gas are going through a fast energy crisis, and winter is approaching. The question of whether Germany – the largest part of the EU economy – can make a transition fast enough.

Europe does believe it has a plan that could make this possible. Here comes winter.

Materials Security

The Russian invasion has already radically disrupted supply chains of the raw materials needed for the coming fuel transition. European countries are in a sense remembering their own reserves, motivated to extract their own resources for batteries and other key materials.

The European race to secure such materials has been well forecast, but not at this speed.

Europe has also launched the Critical Raw Materials Act, to decrease reliance on Chinese-sourced materials.

It won’t ever have self-sufficiency, but it won’t ever return to the way it was either. As companies relocate their production in to Europe and seek new suppliers, the EU is incentivising low carbon options, boosting innovation and materials efficiencies, but still requiring key minerals and metals from Africa in nickel and cobalt among others.

Food Security

Russia undeniably uses food as a weapon. But Europe’s harvests for 2022 were in trouble from climate change too, with the worst droughts on record.

Food exporters such as little old New Zealand have export prices going through the roof. Even as Fonterra shrinks its production to largely New Zealand and Australia, it is keeping a lot of farmers pretty happy – though its primary focus remains China.

The European Common Agricultural Policy has in reality delivered a pretty resilient system for within Europe. The largest food threat arising from the Russian invasion is to poorer countries and their access to Ukrainian grain. The EU has generated a series of partnerships to address the broader global responses necessary for food security globally.

The EU remains an agricultural superpower and its degree of coherence on agriculture is a leading model. And yes, we have a small part to play in that too.

Social Cohesion

For all the rise of hard right anti-immigration governments are worrying in Italy and Sweden and Hungary, check out Poland.

Who knows how long Poland can sustain this welcome, but it sure beats the alternative.

The war’s knock-on effect to energy markets is also forcing governments to protect their citizens from its impact with massive subsidies.

France, Germany, the UK and many other countries are actively softening the blow of the energy transition they have been forced into.

The EU even has a thing called cohesion policy, and has massively increased support through it.

It’s something that perhaps only the old in New Zealand now recall.

Cooperation

This is the largest and most comprehensive set of threats Europe has faced since World War Two. Some were pre-existing and the war has made them far worse. Some are specific to this time.

The war in the Ukraine is likely to last for a few years, not months. Ukraine will not deal and will fight for every acre lost. The pressures this war has placed on Europe are and will continue to be immense, and it will utterly change Europe’s energy, materials, food, social security and internal cohesion.

These elements are also some of the most important for the rebuild of Ukraine, and it will be European Union dedication to that task which will achieve that rebuild.

Prior to the invasion the combined impact of the multiyear Eurozone and Mediterranean refugee crisis had slowly eroded social solidarity norms. Huge gaps between Europe’s normative rhetoric and reality were fertile ground for the destruction of left-leaning progressive politics and the rise of totally divisive hard right extremism. That won’t go away now, as seen this month in Italy and Sweden.

But Europe through this year has been forced to be unified, forced to make energy transitions, forced to be more accepting of refugees (at least by some countries), and forced to get its act together and be a union, not just European. I’m not even needing to mention defence cooperation.

It sure isn’t fun for anyone let alone Ukraine, but Europe is reacting within an historical turning point. The speed and scale of its reactions particularly compared to the United Nations are paving the way for rapid institutional renewal and a reassertion of the EU as both a project and a kind of ideal.

The immediate question is: will all of this newfound momentum survive the winter?

Long term this is becoming something even stronger than the Marshall Plan.

8 comments on “The Very Bad Slightly Good Things About the Russian Invasion ”

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  1. Stuart Munro 1
    25 September 2022 at 10:17 pm

    With any luck, conscription will eventually drag the Russian masses out of their apathy to demand create a less corrupt state. The positive effect on subject peoples and neighbouring states would be enormous.

  2. Scud 2
    25 September 2022 at 10:54 pm

    Going to make an interesting winter in Europe, if Europe gets through this without any major issues.

    Then Tsar Poot's attempts of Energy Blackmail in Europe would go up a 5th of Nov Roman candle on a rainy night.

    Yep he's definitely no longer holding a pair of 2's but a pair of Jokers at table now

  3. roblogic 3
    25 September 2022 at 11:09 pm

    Being critical of immigration isn't necessarily "hard-right"; it is a thoroughly working class concern also.

    We should be realistic about the social costs of government policies rather than resort to emotive slogans.

  4. denby 4
    26 September 2022 at 12:02 pm

    sounds like a copy and paste straight out of the CIA handbook on US public relations. I don't see how people dying be they Russian or Ukranian is a "good thing" The only winners are US arms manufactories whom are happy to just keep pumping arms into the country. But you probably don't want to go there, it doesn't fit with the "your either with us or against us mentality".

    A negotiated settlement is the best outcome for both countries in my opinion. Have a nice day.

    • Barfly 4.1
      26 September 2022 at 4:20 pm

      "A negotiated settlement is the best outcome for both countries in my opinion. Have a nice day."

      At this point I believe Putin will not agree any settlement that he doesn't profit from and he must not be allowed to profit from starting a war for territorial acquisition that he started.

  5. Poission 5
    26 September 2022 at 12:02 pm

    The energy crisis in Europe,is more to do with policy failures that are seen when the tide goes out,mostly from the arguments of the lowlands such as Germany,Netherlands,with substantive funding to replace existing baseline generation with Russian gas,or US biomass.

    Germany spent 1/2 trillion Euros,replacing Nuclear with both biomass and gas generation for baseload and intermittent capacity such as wind and solar,whilst not reducing load.

    The so called plan 55,requires the removal of agriculture land ( 22 million hectares) from food production to Biomass for energy production,which does not reduce carbon emissions.

    The collapse of the European manufacturing base,will make the transformation to reduced reliance on imported energy and materials even greater as the Trade surplus of Europe reverts to debt economies with increasing interest load.

    The only factor sustaining europe at present is the China zero covid policy,which has reduced its imports of LNG and coal (both needed for Europe's winter)

  6. tsmithfield 6
    26 September 2022 at 5:27 pm

    One of the big advantages is soon there will only be two crazy super powers in the world to worry about.

  7. Scud 7
    28 September 2022 at 10:33 pm

    Looks like it's going from bad to worst & now shocking bad for the Russian Army around the Lyman Area?

    If this Russian Map,0that was pinch from Telegram or from other Russian SM platform is correct we are:-

    Probably looking at the another Kherson type Pocket developing? With the UrK Military again using a major River/ Natural Obstacle as form a Flank Protection & stopping the Russians from Retreating in good order.

    Just hope the weather holds for UkR Military to complete this phase of the current Counter Offensive? As it must be getting close for General Mud arriving soon, which will slow down the UkR Army's Motorised Light Infantry & Cavalry Units from exploiting the open Greens fields beyond.

    Run Russian Run as the Ukrainian Guns go Boom Boom!

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1575028962362765312?t=pD3-g1bva6tgrJzNVAdr8g&s=19