Turkey shoots down Russian jet

Written By: - Date published: 6:32 am, November 25th, 2015 - 151 comments
Categories: Syria, war - Tags: , , , ,

Late yesterday Turkey (a NATO member) shot down a Russian jet, either inside its airspace (Turkey claims) or over Syria (Russia claims). The Guardian:

Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border

Turkish military official says fighter jets destroyed plane after it violated country’s airspace, which Russia denies

Nato-member Turkey has shot down a Russian warplane in the first time the alliance and Moscow have come to blows directly over the crisis in Syria.

Ankara and Moscow gave conflicting accounts of the incident, which appears to have occurred in an area near the Turkish-Syrian border straddling Iskenderun and Latakia.

The Turkish military said it scrambled two F-16 fighter jets after a plane penetrated Turkish airspace in the province of Hatay at 9.20am on Tuesday morning, warning it to leave 10 times in five minutes before it was shot down.

It was unclear if the plane was shot down by the fighter jets or by ground-based defence systems.

Russia’s defence ministry, in a series of tweets, confirmed a Russian SU-24 had been shot down, but insisted the plane had never left Syrian airspace. …

https://twitter.com/intlspectator/status/669073980049915904

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/669094797693456384

151 comments on “Turkey shoots down Russian jet ”

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  1. Paul 1
    25 November 2015 at 6:50 am

    Does Turkey want ISIS defeated?
    Clearly not.

  2. Sanctuary 2
    25 November 2015 at 7:11 am

    This won’t end well.

  3. BM 3
    25 November 2015 at 7:37 am

    If any one is interested, this is a good site for all things military.

    Official Turkish response
    http://themess.net/forum/military-discussion/47947-syrian-war?p=94708#post94708

  4. One Anonymous Bloke 4
    25 November 2015 at 7:51 am

    “There are other ways of dealing with these kind of incidents.” h/t BM.

    Deliberate provocation, then?

    Turkish foreign “policy” looks dodgy as fuck these days.

  5. Sanctuary 5
    25 November 2015 at 8:06 am

    I’m beginning to lose track.

    Israel: Can’t believe it’s luck. Happily carrying on a policy of slow genocide, militarism and racist apartheid for which it receives lavish rewards, despite the fact that it is the West’s unwavering support of Israel that started the whole radicalisation of Islam in the first place. led by a racist, rabble rousing lunatic.

    Turkey: Doesn’t support ISIS, Assad or the Kurds (who are fighting Assad and ISIS). Supports Iranian back rebels. Sometimes. Shoots down Russian jets in needlessly provocative actions just because. Appear to have forgotten the results of the 1914 Caucasus Campaign. Strutting, dangerous leader probably one more emergency decree away from a military coup.

    Russia: Does support Assad, doesn’t support ISIS. Friends with Iran. Not friends with America. Strutting, dangerous leader who pines for the military prestige of a vanished Soviet past.

    USA Who the hell knows what America is up to. Supports Saudi, which funds ISIS, opposes Iran and Assad, who are fighting ISIS, but is opposed to Hizbollah and Hamas, Supports Iraq, which is full of pro-Iranian militias. Backs anti-Assad forces, which include Al Qaeda, which it opposes. Led by Benjamin Netanyahu (see Israel above).

    UK: Foreign policy is to Just bomb whoever it can in order to prove it is still an important country. See: Trident. Led by a strutting, dangerous leader who lives in a delusional bubble.

    France: Surprised it was attacked by ISIS, despite the fact it has been bombing Syrian targets since forever. Re-doubled bombing efforts, because the previous bombing attacks have clearly worked so well. Or not. Led by no one in particular, until Marine Le Pen wins in 2017 and then it’ll be all on for young and old.

    Syria: Doesn’t actually exist anymore. Has no building over two stories in height left standing. Divided up amongst: The Syrian Army, Republican Guard, National Defence Force, Syrian pro-government militias (there are an eye watering 31+ of these!!!), Hezbollah, Quds Force, Basij, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, The Free Syrian Army, anti-government militias (about 25 of them), ISIL and a couple of ISIL hangers on.

    What a first class fuck up, and it’s largely the fault of the utter failure of US diplomacy in the middle east since 2001.

    • te reo putake 5.1
      25 November 2015 at 8:13 am

      Excellent summary, Sanctuary!

      For mine, I’d say Turkey is sending a message to all participants about the sanctity of it’s borders.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1.1
        25 November 2015 at 8:18 am

        NATO ambassadors…many expressed concern that Turkey did not escort the Russian warplane out of its airspace.

        Reuters – linked at 4.

        • greywarshark 5.1.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 10:55 am

          Sanctuary
          “What a first class fuck up, and it’s largely the fault of the utter failure of US diplomacy in the middle east since 2001.”

          That prompted me to look up the quotes about diplomacy and its connection/continuation to war. A few diferent perspectives on what might be the zeitgeist going on behind the minds at the war plotting tables.

          If we just let our vision of the world go forth, and we embrace it entirely, and we don’t try to piece together clever diplomacy but just wage a total war, our children will sing great songs about us years from now.
          Richard Perle (USA Republican lobbyist, political advisor)
          http://www.wrmea.org/2003-april/the-pentagon-s-dynamic-duo-richard-perle-and-paul-wolfowitz.html

          A bit of satire:
          Diplomats are just as essential to starting a war as soldiers are for finishing it… You take diplomacy out of war, and the thing would fall flat in a week.
          Will Rogers
          “Diplomacy is the art of telling people to go to hell in such a way that they ask for directions.” ― Winston S. Churchill Goodreads
          “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall take flack from both sides.”- Unofficial UN Motto” ― Robert Asprin, Sweet Myth-Tery of Life Goodreads

          Then there’s this:
          The war we are fighting today against terrorism is a multifaceted fight. We have to use every tool in our toolkit to wage this war – diplomacy, finance, intelligence, law enforcement, and of course, military power – and we are developing new tools as we go along. Richard Armitage USA
          Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/diplomacy.html#BL2M1fC9dPqS1GPy.99
          It seems that Richard Armitage, a State Department official in 2003, would know a lot on the subject of this comment. Having been close to USA political dodgery and mixed with Karl Rove and Dick Cheney. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plame_affair

          “In the end, the work of diplomats continues even while others fight. So, it’s not necessarily true that everyone needs to march.” ― David Brin Goodreads

          This man Carl_von_Clausewitz has interesting thinking..
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_von_Clausewitz#Principal_ideas
          “We maintain…that war is simply a continuation of political intercourse, with the addition of other means.
          An explanation of how large ideas get distorted by small minds:
          http://thediplomat.com/2014/11/everything-you-know-about-clausewitz-is-wrong/

          Me: We see that humans regularly like to take to war (the people at the top anyway, and often supported by bellicose public). So musing about this destructive tendency might lead to some useful self-knowledge and outcomes.
          edited

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.2
        25 November 2015 at 11:19 am

        For mine, I’d say Turkey is sending a message to all participants about the sanctity of it’s borders.

        How come ISIS militants, oil and supplies seem to be able to cross Turkey’s sanctimonious borders at will?

        • Pascals bookie 5.1.2.1
          25 November 2015 at 7:42 pm

          To the extent that is happening, it’ll be for very similar reasons as to why the Russians/Assad/Iranian/Iraqi/Hezbollah forces are leaving ISIS pretty much alone right now.

          Basically in multiparty wars you rank your opponents. There are not ‘two sides’ who line up to fight, and you don’t fight all your opponents at the same time unless you cannot avoid doing so.

          So you pick who you are going to fight now based on a strategy that takes into account the threats to your interests, then you move on.

    • Ovid 5.2
      25 November 2015 at 9:01 am

      I believe the technical term is “clusterfuck”. Meanwhile Iraq’s army has no fight at all in them as ISIS advances and secures territory.

      • tracey 5.2.1
        25 November 2015 at 12:00 pm

        And with so many radar/satellites focused on this region, no one can find out the truth of who was where at the time etc? Not syaing the truth will improve the situation but it rather beggars belief that no one knows the exact flight path of this plane at the point it was struck… and the audio of the warnings…

        Clusterfuck is right

        • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 2:27 pm

          pretty sure the key players know exactly what went down; the rest of it is spin and posturing for the voting public.

          • Tracey 5.2.1.1.1
            26 November 2015 at 6:58 am

            That was my point CV

            Interestingly the turkish are being reported overnight as saying smongst other things that they were protecting “our brothers” which seems to suggest the rebels over the border, not the good folk of turkey

    • ianmac 5.3
      25 November 2015 at 9:16 am

      … and the NZ position is umm…….

    • Robert Glennie 5.4
      25 November 2015 at 11:38 am

      I have lost track.

      Everyone is committing muck ups that just make the overall situation worse and no one actually knows where the proverbial ball is, much less what they are supposed to be doing with it.

      Russia supports Assad but is doing as much damage to civilian areas as it is to I.S.I.S.

      The U.S. in the words of Admiral Willis Lee at the Battle of Guadalcanal describing U.S.S. South Dakota’s battle damage at Guadalcanal: Deaf, dumb, blind and impotent. It is flailing around striking what not; missing nearly everything and achieving nothing.

      France and Britain – the colonial powers that established Syria and Iraq in the first place as nations – are beating up their old colonies completely oblivious to what is (and is not)happening on the ground.

      I.S.I.S. winners are grinners – they are winning because the so called world powers are scared, beefing up security and talking about threats that may or may not exist.

      Turkey is obviously prepared to defend itself, whilst being a refuge for huge numbers of refugees.

      Syria and Iraq? Stuffed. These nations were probably never meant to exist except as colonial designs of Britain and France and now they are coming unstuck.

      Just remind me again what N.A.T.O. stands for: No Action Turkey _____ – I though the purpose of military alliances was a collective defence.

      And the rest of the world? “Oh dear God…..”

      • tracey 5.4.1
        25 November 2015 at 12:01 pm

        The US targetting (and then killing doctors and patients in) a Medicines sans frontieres hospital….

      • Colonial Viper 5.4.2
        25 November 2015 at 12:43 pm

        “Russia supports Assad but is doing as much damage to civilian areas as it is to I.S.I.S.”

        nah, thats BS. Where did you get that Battle Damage Assessment from? CNN?

    • JonL 5.5
      25 November 2015 at 2:39 pm

      “Strutting, dangerous leader who pines for the military prestige of a vanished Soviet past.”
      What a load of bollocks!
      Have you actually done any research on the man other than what the western media have pumped out since he told the US to stop interfering in Russia around ’99-2000!

      “What a first class fuck up, and it’s largely the fault of the utter failure of US diplomacy in the middle east since 2001.

      The US doesn’t do diplomacy these days – other than “do what we say or else!”

      A first class fuck up – too true!

    • Halfcrown 5.6
      25 November 2015 at 6:51 pm

      Shit mate, what a brilliant analysis could not have written better.

      I like this bit
      “UK: Foreign policy is to Just bomb whoever it can in order to prove it is still an important country. See: Trident. Led by a strutting, dangerous leader who lives in a delusional bubble.”

      How fucking true, but what do you expect when you have a upper crust useless pig head fucking twit in charge.

  6. Sanctuary 6
    25 November 2015 at 8:13 am

    Forgot to add:

    Saudi Arabia: led by sect of hard line austere religious fanatics who none the less contrive to have personal gold plated airliners. America’s friend, except for the fact they’ve more or less funded practically every serious terrorist attack ever carried out in the west, including 9/11. Hates Iran because of an obscure dispute about the nature of the prophets followers. Should be our enemy, but since it sits on top of all the lovely black gold we pretend we are friends. Led by strutting, dangerous, and venal aristocrats.

    Iran: Should be America’s friend, except the the awful, egregious interference in it’s internal affairs by the USA made it our enemy. Officially and personally they hate each other, but they secretly know they should be dating. Led by strutting, dangerous theocrats.

    • tracey 6.1
      25 November 2015 at 12:02 pm

      Saudi Arabia should be a thorn in the side of western politicians but they seem to successfully dodge the appalling hypocrisy of supporting this nation.

    • Colonial Viper 6.2
      25 November 2015 at 12:41 pm

      strutting theocrats, yes. But dangerous? Iran/Persia hasnt attacked a neighbour in hundreds of years.

      • adam 6.2.1
        25 November 2015 at 1:21 pm

        All theocracies are dangerous. All are reactionary, and all mean to control the population by any means possible.

        Iran was shelling Afghanistan before the US led invasion back in 2002. Just saying

        • Bill 6.2.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 1:45 pm

          You sure about that?

          I’m curious because when the Taliban over-ran (can’t remember the name of the city) in the north of Afghanistan killing several or a dozen Iranian government officials (a clear excuse for invasion) in the days when it was seeking to extend it’s control to the north, Iran was running extensive military exercises in the west of Iran, yet sought a diplomatic solution.

        • Colonial Viper 6.2.1.2
          25 November 2015 at 2:33 pm

          All theocracies are dangerous. All are reactionary, and all mean to control the population by any means possible.

          Huh? That’s just anti-religion mumbo jumbo. What are you on about. Look at the fear based security and surveillance state the FVEYE nations are clamping down on their citizens with. Our leaders have learnt from the East German Stasi (another secular state) and pushed it to a whole new 21st century level.

        • Stuart Munro 6.2.1.3
          25 November 2015 at 11:13 pm

          Yep like Tibet were real bastards – like that warmongering sod the Dalai Lama.

          Your generalisation does you no credit.

    • Halfcrown 6.3
      25 November 2015 at 7:05 pm

      Blimey mate You have got it in one again.

    • Rawsharkosaurus 6.4
      25 November 2015 at 9:21 pm

      “Led by strutting, dangerous theocrats.”

      And the Iranians aren’t much better.

  7. AsleepWhileWalking 7
    25 November 2015 at 8:22 am

    Turkey also confirmed shooting the pilots as they parachuted down, AND a Russian search helicopter out looking for them.
    Looks like the US wants to make absolutely certain this is the start of WWIII and Putin just wasn’t reactive enough for them.

    A sad day indeed.

    • te reo putake 7.1
      25 November 2015 at 8:26 am

      It wasn’t Turkey that shot the pilots. One or other of the militias on the ground, apparently. Not that it makes them any less dead. The BBC radio news suggested the helicopter was involved in an unrelated incident much closer to Damascus, but I guess that’ll become clearer later on.

      • te reo putake 7.1.1
        25 November 2015 at 8:38 am

        BBC now:

        “The Russian soldier killed during a search and rescue mission for the crew of the shot-down warplane was on board a helicopter downed by rebel fire, Russia’s military has said.

        A military spokesman said it was one of two helicopters taking part in the operation. The rest of the crew were evacuated and taken to the air base used by Russia in Syria.”

    • One Anonymous Bloke 7.2
      25 November 2015 at 8:27 am

      Nope: Turkmen “rebels” in Syria claim they shot the pilots.

      • infused 7.2.1
        25 November 2015 at 8:34 am

        And fired on the helicopter, which is why Putin used the words ‘stabbed in the back’ since they were Turkey backed rebels.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1
      25 November 2015 at 8:52 am

      Great. Cut off military communication with Turkey, Bolster air defences: “all the potentially dangerous targets will be destroyed.”

    • McGrath 8.2
      25 November 2015 at 5:50 pm

      Turkey really has fucked it up majorly with this! Everything to lose and nothing to gain by shooting down the jet. I foresee Russia imposing a no-fly zone for Turkish jets over Syria backed with force.

  9. Stuart Munro 9
    25 November 2015 at 9:06 am

    Russia had been airstriking non-ISIS Turkmen targets in Syria. The Russian ambassador had been summoned and carpeted earlier in the day – Trend news agency, Baku.

  10. Adrian 10
    25 November 2015 at 9:41 am

    My bullshit detector has gone off here. If you look at a map of Turkey the flight path of the Russian jet crosses about 15-20 kms of Turkey , admittedly twice, but at 800kph that’s about 90 seconds max, so much for ten warnings over 10minutes as Turkey claims
    It was also hit over Syria so must have been surface to air.

    • infused 10.1
      25 November 2015 at 9:54 am

      Well it’s kinda tough. This has been going on for some time. Each time, Russian pilots ignore Turkey.

      http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/06/nato-chief-jens-stoltenberg-russia-turkish-airspace-violations-syria

      • tracey 10.1.1
        25 November 2015 at 12:04 pm

        Yup. easy enough to prove or disprove, Turkey and Russia can publish their radar/satelite record of where the plane was at the exact time it was hit, cos BOTH would have that info.

        • alwyn 10.1.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 3:43 pm

          Which of these records do you intend to believe Tracey?
          You can guarantee that a Turkish record would show the plane over Turkey.
          A Russian one would be certain to show it over Syria for the entire duration of the flight.
          They can’t both be right but you will have to choose that you will believe the Russian version, the Turkish one or that you don’t believe either of them.
          It’ll be like the Malaysian flight shot down over Ukraine. Ukraine, and the west in general, say that Russian supplied (or Russian troops) militia did it.
          Russia says it was anyone from Ukraine to the US Air Force.

          • tracey 10.1.1.1.1
            25 November 2015 at 4:27 pm

            Yeah I know alwyn…

            I guess the thing that irks me the most is that if well intentioned, both sides could have instantly produced their evidence but both waited 24 hours, which means who the fuck knows… mind you who the fuck ever knows anyway…

            Sigh, like no one pubblished this stuff about the plane downed over Ukraine even though Russians, Ukraine and probably NATO were monitoring the airspace

    • Pasupial 10.2
      25 November 2015 at 11:04 am

      Adrian

      There were two planes, not one plane crossing twice:

      In a letter to the British ambassador to the United Nations, currently serving as the president of the UN security council, the Turkish government wrote… Disregarding these warnings, both planes, at an altitude of 19,000 feet violated Turkish airspace to a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles for 17 seconds from 9.24.05 local time.

      http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/nato-and-un-seek-calm-over-turkish-downing-of-russian-jet

      • greywarshark 10.2.1
        25 November 2015 at 3:34 pm

        So what’s so special about being near the Turkish border high up. What is Turkey trying to hide.? Count to 17 and then explain.

        We are back in this dangerous situation that we had around 1960s wondering about some nervous or hungover person pressing something. Then there had to be a second person that would finish the exercise to send off some warhead. Reagan is supposed to have had a red button in his office for firing the big one.

        It’s a explain now call to the Russian ambassador thing, not a fire from the hip thing. I wish they would stop pointing their dicks at each other and getting all fired up like this.
        edited

    • Colonial Viper 10.3
      25 November 2015 at 11:23 am

      Russian news channels say that their plane was attacked 1km inside Syrian borders, and that the crash site is 4km inside Syrian borders.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 10.3.1
        25 November 2015 at 11:30 am

        Which is consistent with the Turkish account: air-to-air missiles having to fly to their target and so-on.

        • Colonial Viper 10.3.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 11:37 am

          OK. Despite the Russian plane being on the way out of Turkish airspace, they launched against it anyway (probably using short range Aim 9 Sidewinders).

          I still wonder if some Turkish F16 pilot or junior air controller got nervous with their trigger finger, as it seems that escalating military tension with Russia serves Turkey not at all – unless it is to protect Turkey’s ISIS/rebel proxy fighters in Northern Syria.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 10.3.1.1.1
            25 November 2015 at 11:45 am

            Yeah – the Russian response is to effectively announce a no-fly zone: see BM’s link at 8.

            This has significant consequences for NATO. SNAFU.

    • Liberal Realist 10.4
      25 November 2015 at 6:20 pm

      There are conflicting reports around the amount of time the Russian jet spent in Turkish territory. I’d agree the Turkish account is bullshit. Dangerous times…

      “As for the circumstances surrounding the Turkish shoot-down of the Russian SU-24, Turkey claimed to have radioed ten warnings over five minutes to the Russian pilots but without getting a response. However, the New York Times reported that a diplomat who attended a NATO meeting in which Turkey laid out its account said “the Russian SU-24 plane was over the Hatay region of Turkey for about 17 seconds when it was struck.”

      How those two contradictory time frames matched up was not explained. However, if the 17-second time frame is correct, it appears that Turkey intended to shoot down a Russian plane – whether over its territory or not – to send a message that it would not permit Russia to continue attacking Turkish-backed rebels in Syria.”

      From here: (Robert Parry)
      https://tinyurl.com/ph79umb

      Original reference: (NY Times)
      https://tinyurl.com/pmcvzuf

  12. Brutus Iscariot 12
    25 November 2015 at 10:44 am

    Fuck the Turks.

    Run by a reactionary despot, happy to play a double game pretending ISIS is bad in public, all the while promoting them as a counterbalance to their own separatist groups.

    • tracey 12.1
      25 November 2015 at 12:05 pm

      Hopefully this will make the world more empathetic toward the citizens of Turkey who have been protesting over the last few years the despotic nature of their rulers.

  13. Pasupial 13
    25 November 2015 at 10:56 am

    This seems to be the main point of the incident:

    Turkey said one of its US-made F-16 fighters fired on the Russian plane when it entered Turkish airspace after having been warned on its approach to the Turkish border through a 13-mile no-fly zone inside Syria it had declared in July.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/nato-and-un-seek-calm-over-turkish-downing-of-russian-jet

    The Turks claim that the plane was in Turkish airspace when the shots were fired, the Russians say that it was in Syria. Turkey presents; a military radar image as their proof, Russia; a flight plan that contradicts this. My guess is that the planes did in fact enter Turkish airspace by accident (while intentionally flying in the no-fly zone) but was back over Syria by the time it was shot down (although not necessarily when the missile was launched – it doesn’t take long for a jet to travel a mile), after all it did crash inside Syria. The convenient TV footage is difficult to assess as it doesn’t show landmarks until the plane is headed for the ground.

    The incident seems to mainly relate to the Turk’s irritation at the Russian’s not respecting their unilaterally proclaimed no-fly border zone. Of course, there is no reason why the Russian’s should, if the Assad regime does not. The problem now is that only Russia has any legal basis for it’s airforce’s action in Syria. Despite the Assad Baathist faction being (or at least containing) vile war criminals, they are still the closest thing to a legitimate government in Syria. If Russia pressures them to consent, then any planes that enter Syrian airspace from Turkey may not be long in the air.

    Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1
      25 November 2015 at 11:26 am

      yours is the most likely sequence of events that I have seen described thus far.

      Syrian Turkmen machinegunning dead parachuting pilots would also be considered a war crime I believe, as parachute survivors must be given the opportunity to surrender unless they are taking hostile action. (An addendum to the Geneva Convention).

    • tracey 13.2
      25 November 2015 at 12:07 pm

      a military radar image as their proof, Russia; a flight plan that contradicts this. My guess is that the planes did in fact enter Turkish airspace by accident (while intentionally flying in the no-fly zone)

      Can’t the russians show us their radar image, or are we at the stage where those could be doctored by all sides and are not reliable?

      • Colonial Viper 13.2.1
        25 November 2015 at 12:14 pm

        im pretty sure the US and even Israel has radar images which show exactly who was where. If the French carrier group is anywhere close by, they will have seen it too.

      • Draco T Bastard 13.2.2
        25 November 2015 at 12:50 pm

        I’d like to present this radar track of a Russian spy plane as it circled over Auckland just moments ago…

        • alwyn 13.2.2.1
          25 November 2015 at 3:49 pm

          Is the split in the track on the bottom right where it fired a missile to shoot down a kereru? DOC could do the pilot!

        • tracey 13.2.2.2
          25 November 2015 at 4:28 pm

          Which makes it pointless for people to take sides, right? Cos no one knows whose documentation/image is “real”.

          • Draco T Bastard 13.2.2.2.1
            25 November 2015 at 5:19 pm

            IMO, Occam’s Razor applies here:

            That a modern aircraft, that knows where it is to within a metre at all times, was shot down for violating territorial airspace for an extended period of time and ignored 10 warnings or that it was shot down without violating that airspace.

            • Colonial Viper 13.2.2.2.1.1
              25 November 2015 at 5:26 pm

              At the UN Turkey claimed that their airspace was violated for 17 seconds. The Russians say that no warnings were broadcast to their aircraft.

              • tracey …
                25 November 2015 at 6:56 pm

                Given the flight path would be noted, including that the aircraft was moving in a direct path to violate Turkish airspace it is surely possible that warnings began before it entered the airsapce?

                • Colonial Viper …
                  25 November 2015 at 7:02 pm

                  That’s possible of course. But 5 mins of warnings at 1,500km/h means that the Russian plane would have been a hundred kilometres away from the border clear in Syrian airspace.

                  Everyone listening into the area should have recordings of the broadcasted warnings as well, so let’s see if they are released into the public domain.

                  • tracey …
                    25 November 2015 at 7:51 pm

                    You know the Russians can e deceptive bastards, right?

                    • Draco T Bastard …
                      25 November 2015 at 8:10 pm

                      Have you noticed the actions of Turkey over the last few years? I’d say that they’ve got more reason to lie.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      25 November 2015 at 9:51 pm

                      yeah the Ruskies are pretty tricky operators…today though its their pilots shot dead in their ejection seats. Who has more cause to lie…

                    • Tracey …
                      26 November 2015 at 7:05 am

                      Yes. Noticed it and even commented on it above.

                      My comment was about the uselessness of any of us choosing a side to support in this latest BS. Both leaferships cant be trusted. Just like the US leadership denied being involved in the MSF killings.

                      The moral, if any, to this is surely that more bombing and military strikes is improving nothing

                      Interestingly the turkish are being reported overnight as saying smongst other things that they were protecting “our brothers” which seems to suggest the rebels over the border, not the good folk of turkey which they have been treating like the enemy for a few years

                  • Draco T Bastard …
                    25 November 2015 at 8:09 pm

                    Such a warning would be in the clear which means that everybody with a radio within 50km would probably have heard the warnings. Not everybody has a radio but it would be a non zero number. Nobody seems to be coming forward.

            • tracey 13.2.2.2.1.2
              25 November 2015 at 6:54 pm

              Theoretically Occams Razor always applies.

              You might want to factor in that both sides may have reason to lie, and a history of doing so.

  14. joe90 14
    25 November 2015 at 11:24 am

    The Russian public will want blood.

    BBC R4 World Tonight Verified account
    ‏@BBCWorldTonight

    “Putin has chosen the most belligerent tone – the situation is serious” – Dmitry Babich #Russianplane

    https://twitter.com/BBCWorldTonight/status/669278773821444100

    #Russianplane

    • Colonial Viper 14.1
      25 November 2015 at 11:28 am

      The Russian public will want retribution against Turkey yes – but that could be political, economic or military retribution – or a combination. The Russian public is still very wary of mission creep into an Afghanistan type situation however.

      • infused 14.1.1
        25 November 2015 at 11:55 am

        Putin won’t do shit.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 14.1.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 12:00 pm

          First: All the activities of the attack aviation will be carried out only under cover of fighter aircraft.

          Second: Air defence will be reinforced. For that purpose, the Moskva cruiser equipped with air defence system Fort analogous to the S-300 one will go to the shore zone of Latakia. Russian Defence Ministry warns that all the potentially dangerous targets will be destroyed.

          Third: Contacts with Turkey will be terminated at the military level.

          Source: see BM at 8

          You were saying?

        • tracey 14.1.1.2
          25 November 2015 at 12:08 pm

          by “won’t do shit” do you mean use military retaliation on Turkey?

        • Colonial Viper 14.1.1.3
          25 November 2015 at 12:10 pm

          uh, thats an illogical statement. Just last week Russia added 24 long range strategic bombers to their Syrian campaign.

          They didnt produce the rap video “go hard like Vladimir Putin” for no reason.

          • infused 14.1.1.3.1
            25 November 2015 at 9:47 pm

            Everyone was expecting Russia to retaliate against Turkey with force. Was never going to happen.

            Putin ain’t the bear in waiting.

            • Paul 14.1.1.3.1.1
              25 November 2015 at 9:51 pm

              A.M.G. – “Go Hard Like Vladimir Putin”

            • Pascals bookie 14.1.1.3.1.2
              25 November 2015 at 9:57 pm

              I don’t think anyone was expecting him to retaliate today.

              I’ve not seen anyone serious say he’ll retaliate directly either, but Syrians are suggesting all sorts of things they could do.

              Most likely is that kurds in Turkey get delivery of some new toys ‘captured’ by their brethren in Syria.

              And the Turkmen wing of the FSA gets hammered while being called ISIS by the likes of CV in this thread.

              Russia has plenty of options. Turkey’s biggest card would be closing the Bosphorous straights to cut of Russia fuel supply, but that would be a huge escalation.

              • Colonial Viper …
                25 November 2015 at 10:24 pm

                and 60% of Turkey’s gas supply is Russian…

                • Pascals bookie …
                  26 November 2015 at 1:55 pm

                  Shutting that off would hurt Russia too though to an extent, and would probably be enough to trigger Turkey closing the Dardanelles to them.

                  Which would leave Russian assets in Syria with whatever fuel they can get their hands on.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    26 November 2015 at 2:00 pm

                    Yep. Which means that Turkey and Russia would be crazy to keep escalating this further – question is who does escalation serve?

      • joe90 14.1.2
        25 November 2015 at 12:08 pm

        Oh, they want blood.

        Трусливые шакалы, скоро вы все сдохнете, чурки ебаные!

        google translate – The cowardly jackals, soon you will die , fucking chocks !

        • Colonial Viper 14.1.2.1
          25 November 2015 at 12:11 pm

          Shoigu and Putin will decide on their next steps without any rush. Turkey might not notice anything until their gas gets turned off in 3 months time.

  16. johnm 16
    25 November 2015 at 2:33 pm

    Turkey Has Destroyed Russia’s Hope Of Western Cooperation — Paul Craig Roberts

    Turkey’s unprovoked shoot-down of a Russian military aircraft over Syria raises interesting questions. It seems unlikely that the Turkish government would commit an act of war against a much more powerful neighbor unless Washington had cleared the attack. Turkey’s government is not very competent, but even the incompetent know better than to put themselves into a position of facing Russia alone.

    If the attack was cleared with Washington, was Obama bypassed by the neocons who control his government, or is Obama himself complicit? Clearly the neoconservatives are disturbed by the French president’s call for unity with Russia against ISIL and easily could have used their connections to Turkey to stage an event that Washington can use to prevent cooperation with Russia.

    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/24/turkey-has-destroyed-russias-delusion-of-western-cooperation-paul-craig-roberts/

    My more primitive reaction: The Turkey W*nkers have followed Warshington’s instructions for perpetuating the empire of chaos so as to grab the oil wealth and the neocon maniacs in Warshington have a small mean victory over the only decent force operating in Syria. 🙁 Shame on them!!

    On a more sober note there’s a serious risk of WW111 breaking out if Russia confronts Warshington’s Nato jackal Turkey and the U$ Satan behind them,the principle cause of all this human misery, they’re truly evil, and the Empire of Chaos.

  17. Chooky 17
    25 November 2015 at 5:05 pm

    ‘Turkey’s actions show desperation and despair of regime change camp’

    https://www.rt.com/op-edge/323353-regime-change-camp-desperation/

    Dan Glazebrook is a freelance political writer who has written for RT, Counterpunch, Z magazine, the Morning Star, the Guardian, the New Statesman, the Independent and Middle East Eye, amongst others. His first book “Divide and Ruin: The West’s Imperial Strategy in an Age of Crisis” was published by Liberation Media in October 2013. It featured a collection of articles written from 2009 onwards examining the links between economic collapse, the rise of the BRICS, war on Libya and Syria and ‘austerity’. He is currently researching a book on US-British use of sectarian death squads against independent states and movements from Northern Ireland and Central America in the 1970s and 80s to the Middle East and Africa today.

  18. Stuart Munro 18
    25 November 2015 at 5:55 pm

    Russian militarism could use a check now and then, having had all its own way in Chechenya, Georgia, the Ukraine, and various northern NATO incursions, crazy Ivan may have finally run across someone just as crazy and in this region, as well armed as themselves. The US will be chuffed to arm a Turkish catspaw…

    • Paul 18.1
      25 November 2015 at 7:02 pm

      You talk nonsense.

    • Colonial Viper 18.2
      25 November 2015 at 7:09 pm

      Western and NATO aligned powers have left the entire of the Middle East in total chaos and collapse from Yemen to Libya to Iraq to Syria. And you call Russia crazy??? All the conflicts you list, were on Russia’s front porch with plenty of western destabilisation behind each one, and they had to act.

      The US will be chuffed to arm a Turkish catspaw…

      You dice with the prospects of WWIII like its nothing. Turkey already gets billions of dollars of weapons from the US, it is NATO’s second or third best armed country.

      • Stuart Munro 18.2.1
        25 November 2015 at 7:24 pm

        Mate I don’t have much to do with it – but Turkey called in the Russian ambassador the day before shooting down the plane – more than fair warning.

        http://en.trend.az/world/turkey/2460089.html

        It’s true that the US are brutish and incompetent – don’t be deceived into thinking Russia is any better, or that their objectives in the region are any nobler.

        • Colonial Viper 18.2.1.1
          25 November 2015 at 7:28 pm

          Holy shit, you think that calling in the Ambassador to complain about some occasional and non-systematic airspace transgressions is sufficient to justify the shooting down of a plane from a friendly nation showing no hostile intent?

          And what a ridiculous piece you linked to. Russia is jeopardizing relations with Turkey by hitting groups supported by Turkey.

          What do you think shooting down a Russian plane does to Turkish/Russia relations?

          BTW I bet the Russian ambassador was not told that Turkish forces were going to start attacking Russian planes.

          • Stuart Munro 18.2.1.1.1
            25 November 2015 at 7:31 pm

            They were systematic, and hostile.

            If they had been adventitious there would not have been time to call in the ambassador and tell him ‘these incursions must cease’.

            • Colonial Viper 18.2.1.1.1.1
              25 November 2015 at 10:04 pm

              “They were systematic, and hostile.”

              Really? Were the Turkish F16s locked on by the Russian planes?

              • McFlock …
                25 November 2015 at 10:23 pm

                systematic transgressions = hostile, especially when previous incursions involved locking on to turkish aircraft.

                You can google the speed of a flanker, now google “locked on to turkish” for reports in the last couple of months. This was not a bolt from the blue.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  25 November 2015 at 10:32 pm

                  the site says that the Russian flanker maintained a continuous missile lock on a Turkish F-16 for 5 mins 40 sec.

                  Thats quite something at 2,000 km/h.

                  • McFlock …
                    25 November 2015 at 10:44 pm

                    One of the links. But then it’s the wonders of modern technology.

                    And you have to stop assuming that aircraft always travel at top speed. It fecking eats up fuel and results in a turning circle measured in light years..

                  • nadis …
                    26 November 2015 at 8:37 am

                    Tracey is most likely right. Russian plane, small incursion into Turkey AFTER dropping ordnance (i.e., no threat), Russians ignoring warnings like they have done for the last 2 months, Turkish govt deciding this is the time to send a message.

                    Turkey overreacted – even Nato and the US have said they should have escorted the Russians out. but the Russians have been probing Turkisih airspace for weeks – at least 7 incidents where they crossed into Turkish airspace, and they had officially apologised for at least one of these.

                    Both countries are playing to a domestic audience. Autocratic turkey trying to prove that Turkey is the regional power and only the current government can keep turks safe. Russia, a declining power, trying to maintain sphere of influence in the absence of money or a modern military. This describes their asymmetrical approach:

                    https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war/

                    You can see them doing this all over the place – Ukraine, Syria, the ‘stan countries.

                    Turkey and Russia will both de-escalate even as they ramp up the domestic rhetoric. Nato has already said “we support Turkey blah blah blah” but have also told Turkey to pull their heads in. And told the Russians that position. Nato ain’t going to war over this.

                    Russia equally cant do much. They have 4 modern jets in turkey (SU30) which are not a match avionics wise with any of the US planes in region or the Turkish F16s. the other 24 planes the Russians have are Su24 and Su25. The Su 24 is obsolete – a knock off of the F111 which the USAF retired in 1998. Nearly 20 years ago, I believe the SU 24 that was shot down was not one of the few SU24M2 that Russia has. This means it has a non-glass analog cockpit.

                    Re a no-fly zone by either Turkey or Russia. USA won’t let Turkey impose one, and the Russians don’t have the ability to so. Yes they can deploy some of their modern S-400 missiles, that’s why the usa now has 2 F-22’s in region. A russian no-fly zone – beyond the one already around their base – will be a question of whether the US wants to test it or not.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      26 November 2015 at 9:37 am

                      Russia equally cant do much. They have 4 modern jets in turkey (SU30) which are not a match avionics wise with any of the US planes in region or the Turkish F16s.

                      ? that’s just detail. The question is – what is the ability of the Su-30 in an air superiority role. And of course, it can go toe to toe with any other fighter in the area (apart from US F-22s).

                      Re a no-fly zone by either Turkey or Russia. USA won’t let Turkey impose one, and the Russians don’t have the ability to so.

                      In the sentence after this you say that the US could test a Russian no fly zone. Yet here you say that the Russians don’t have the capability to create a no-fly zone.

                      Given that the Russians have now operationally used their latest long range stealth cruise missiles, you wouldn’t be the first to underestimate what they can or will do.

                      top speed of su24 about 1200kms per hour

                      I think you will find that is in miles per hour, at optimum cruising altitude i.e. roughly 2,000 km/h. The Su-24 is a supersonic jet.

                  • nadis …
                    26 November 2015 at 9:02 am

                    top speed of su24 about 1200kms per hour

                    • nadis …
                      26 November 2015 at 5:12 pm

                      no Su24 is a slow old dog 1200 maybe 1300 km top speed:

                      http://www.military-today.com/aircraft/sukhoi_su24_fencer.htm

                      The SU24 was the old soviet style – build something crappy and overwhelm with numbers. Only they cant afford to build the numbers any more. My typo above – US has 12 raptors near Syria and another 48 between 24 and 96 hours away.

                      And the SU30 avionics are vastly inferior. F16’s now have AESM radar which gives them way more stealthy threat detection at range, and the old arguments about whose best in a dogfight are gone now with off-boresight missiles. The answer now is that you are both dead if you get in to a visual range dog fight situation. What counts now is the ability to detect your opponent before he can detect you. There the F16s, and obviously F22’s have a massive advantage. Moot point anyway – a flight of 4 F22’s can take out up to 24 of any other plane in service anywhere before they now they have been targetted. Then add in the superior integration of the USAF with AWACs, satellites and superior numbers of F15/16s and the air superiority question is easy to answer.

                      But it wont come to that – both Russia and the US have shown clearly they want to de-escalate this. And Turkey has been told by Nato to pull their head in.

    • In Vino 18.3
      25 November 2015 at 7:27 pm

      Come on… the US armed the Iraqis, and ISIL walked all over them. Your anti-Russian bias is showing. U.S. has more to answer for in this situation than the Russians, who ever since the West sent their armies in to support the ‘White Russians’ have had damned good reason to distrust the West, and especially the U.S.

  19. Glenn 19
    25 November 2015 at 6:02 pm

    “The problem is that according to a radar map released by the Turks themselves, the Russian Sukhoi could at best be described as crossing over Turkish territory.
    It flew over a small piece of Turkey that projects into Syria – a tiny isthmus of land that would have taken the fast jet only a few moments to fly over.
    So if the plane was shot down, as the Turks say, after entering Turkish airspace, you could equally say it was downed on the way out of Turkish territory too.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34914375

    • Colonial Viper 19.1
      25 November 2015 at 6:46 pm

      it looks like the Turks really wanted to shoot down a Russian jet.

      Those same Russian jets that have been attacking the ISIL and anti-Assad forces that Turkey has been backing.

  20. johnm 20
    25 November 2015 at 6:47 pm

    Looks like Turkey

    Is back on the menu boys

    http://www.rense.com/1.mpicons/turkeymenu.jpg

    • Colonial Viper 20.1
      25 November 2015 at 7:12 pm

      This University of London analyst says that Turkey and Russia are ostensibly on friendly terms, and the Turkish decision to shoot down a Russian plane is extremely curious. Further he says that Russia has no choice but to try and keep things patched up with Turkey.

      http://sputniknews.com/russia/20151125/1030702642/russia-patch-relationship-turkey.html

    • johnm 20.2
      26 November 2015 at 10:25 am

      Turkey Is Lying — Paul Craig Roberts

      We know that Turkey is lying for three reasons.

      One reason is that NATO governments lie every time that they open their mouths.

      A second reason is that Turkey’s claim that the SU-24 was in Turkey’s airspace for 17 seconds but only traveled 1.15 miles means that the SU-24 was flying at stall speed! The entire Western media was too incompetent to do the basic math!

      A third reason is that, assuming Turkey’s claim of a 17 second airspace violation is true, 17 seconds is not long enough for a Turkish pilot to get clearance for such a serious and reckless act as shooting down a Russian military aircraft. If the SU-24 was flying at a normal speed rather than one that would be unable to keep the aircraft aloft, the alleged airspace violation would not have been long enough to be noticed. A shootdown had to have been pre-arranged. The Turks, knowing that the Russians were foolishly trusting to the agreement that there be no air to air encounters, told pilots to look for an opportunity. In my recent article, I gave a reason for this reckless act: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/24/turkey-has-destroyed-russias-delusion-of-western-cooperation-paul-craig-roberts/

      Turkey’s explanation to the UN Security Council gives itself away as a lie. The letter states: “This morning (24 November) 2 SU-24 planes, the nationality of which are unknown have approached Turkish national airspace. The planes in question have been warned 10 times during a period of 5 minutes via ‘Emergency’ channel and asked to change their headings south immediately.”

      As SU-24 are Russian aircraft, as Turkey is able to identify that the aircraft are SU-24s, how then can the nationality of the aircraft be unknown? Would Turkey risk shooting down a US or Israeli aircraft by firing at an unknown aircraft? If the SU-24 takes 17 seconds to fly 1.15 miles, the SU-24s would have only traveled 20.29 miles in five minutes. Does anyone believe that a supersonic aircraft can fly at stall speed for 17 seconds, much less for five minutes?

      http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/25/turkey-is-lying-paul-craig-roberts/

      • johnm 20.2.1
        26 November 2015 at 11:18 am

        No Warnings From Turkish Jets Before Attack – Rescued Russian Pilot First Interview

        http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43527.htm

        ” Red lines have been crossed Turkey is a US vassel state, Erdogan will even sacrifice his own country to please the Yanks and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Erdogan has just put his own life in danger from those inside his own party who want to get rid of him.. There will be repercussions for that despicable downing of that Russian jet. Russia now knows NOT TO TRUST ANYONE, and any incursions into Syrian air space should be viewed as an attack on Russian forces, no matter who those forces belong to, RUSSIA HAS A MANDATE FROM THE UN, and anyone working outside the international law or without the permission of the Syrian government must be deemed a terrorist. and blast them out of the sky. ”

        UN Backs Russia’s War on US-Backed Syria Terrorists
        http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43523.htm

        Is Turkey Starting a Proxy-War on Behalf of NATO against Russia?
        http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43526.htm

        • johnm 20.2.1.1
          26 November 2015 at 11:43 am

          Perhaps the best analysis so far on this crisis I’ve read. really highly recommend it. It seems on this blog that many commentators only contribution is to sidetrack the main issue into irrelevant areas, this I believe is a form of polite trolling! 🙁

          Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet and the danger of world war

          1. The downing of a Russian fighter-bomber by Turkish fighter jets yesterday on the Turkish-Syrian border is a flagrant act of war. Turkish authorities have seized on the alleged Russian violation of their airspace to launch a monumental escalation of the proxy war in Syria between Islamist opposition fighters supported by NATO and the Russian-backed regime of President Bashar al-Assad. It threatens to provoke all-out war between Russia on the one hand, and Turkey and the rest of the NATO alliance on the other.

          Turkish officials claimed that the Russian SU-24 had violated Turkish air space for one minute, while Russian officials said that it never left Syrian air space at all. The Turkish air force did not scramble jets to warn the Russian fighter or escort it back to Syrian air space, but, after allegedly warning the Russian jet for five minutes, shot it down.

          It is unthinkable that Turkey would have taken a decision against a powerful neighbor, fraught with incalculable consequences, without direct prior approval from the US government.

          2. US officials supported the Turkish downing of the Russian plane, making clear that they are willing to accept a direct military clash with Russia, a nuclear-armed power, in order to crush its intervention in Syria to defend the Assad regime.

          At a press conference yesterday with French President François Hollande in Washington, Obama endorsed the downing of the Russian jet, claiming that Turkey “has a right to defend its territory and its airspace.” This amounts to a blank check to Turkish forces to attack Russian fighter jets again, should similar circumstances arise.

          http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/11/25/pers-n25.html

          comment: ”

          Yes I totally agree that the Turks could not have dared to hit a Russian warplane in these tumultuous conditions without obtaining a tacit approval from Washington beforehand, and comments coming from Obama after this attack further reinforces this perception.

          Now I found an interesting article today on Wikileaks that I thought it was worth sharing to the readers. The tile of this article is ”
          “ISIS survives largely because Turkey allows it to: the evidence”. Please have a look. https://undercoverinfo.wordpre… ”

          ”

          “The policy of the Kremlin oscillates between surrender to imperialism and reckless military measures posing the danger of world war with the imperialist powers.” What “reckless military measures” are you referring to?

          The US and it’s NATO henchmen are continuously involved in “reckless military measures” such as the invasions of Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, and the proxy wars against Syria, and Yemen, but I can’t recall seeing any Russian “reckless military measures”. The have been, if anything, overly restrained in their response to US/NATO threats and aggression in Ukraine, Syria, Georgia, Poland and the Baltics.

          The US or Israel would have simply obliterated the air base the F16s came from if a similar unprovoked attack had occurred on one of their aircraft. Time will tell what Putin will choose to do in response, but his track record indicates it will likely be measured and calculated, not “reckless military measures”. “

          • johnm 20.2.1.1.1
            26 November 2015 at 12:18 pm

            US-Dominated NATO Supports Turkish Aggression Against Russia

            Fact: It’s crystal clear what happened. No ambiguity exists. One or more Turkish warplanes downed Russia’s aircraft in Syrian airspace – a double crime: aggression against Russia and violating Syrian airspace either by entering it or firing one or more missiles into its territory.

            Meeting with French President Francois Hollande in Washington, Obama revealed his dirty hands, saying “Turkey, like every other country, has a right to defend itself.” He called Erdogan, expressing support, – at the same time, accusing Russia of attacking nonexistent “moderate” rebels in Syria and propping up Assad.

            General Staff official Sergey Rudskoy said a Turkish warplane attacked Russia’s aircraft after illegally entering Syrian airspace. Its pilot “made no attempts to communicate or establish visual contact with our crew that our equipment would have registered.”

            “The Su-24 was hit by a missile over Syrian territory,” not cross-border as Ankara claimed. Henceforth “(e)very target posing a potential threat will be destroyed.”

            Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev blasted Erdogan, saying “Turkey’s actions are de facto protection (for the) Islamic State. This is no surprise, considering the information we have about direct financial interest of some Turkish officials relating to the supply of oil products refined by plants controlled by ISIS.”

            Erdogan’s reckless act, with virtually certain US support, destroys chances for East-West cooperation against terrorism – at the same time, upping the stakes for direct confrontation. The Doomsday Clock inched closer to midnight.

            http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-dominated-nato-supports-turkish-aggression-against-russia/5491443

            • Colonial Viper 20.2.1.1.1.1
              26 November 2015 at 12:30 pm

              i think quite a few NATO countries resent Turkey for trying to drag them into this unnecessary mess with Russia on the Syrian/Turkish border.

              The Su-24 should have been escorted out of Turkish airspace by the F-16s, not fired upon. The crazy thing is that Turkey and Russia have close economic, social and tourism ties.

  21. Colonial Viper 21
    25 November 2015 at 7:17 pm

    “Go hard like Vladmir Putin” a bit of fun – but anti-Obama Republicans are pointing out that Putin is out playing a weak Obama at every turn.

  22. Thinking Right 22
    25 November 2015 at 11:06 pm

    My take on this:

    One group of dodgy pricks shoots down an aircraft belonging to another (much larger) group of dodgy pricks. (The same dodgy pricks – Russians – seem to have suffered some harsh bush justice lately after their involvement in the shooting down of the airliner over The Ukraine.

    As to the outcome? Likely to escalate. Putin has portrayed the image of a military tough guy who defends Mother Russia at all costs. Given that he has now faced setbacks with the downed airliner and now this aircraft he has to respond militarily or face loosing face amongst the Russian Public.

    Perhaps it also shows up that the Russian Military Machine isn’t as invincible as is often broadcast. F 16 aircraft are technology designed in the 70’s – the same with the Sidewinder Missile used – obviously the Russian Electronic Countermeasures aren’t terribly effective.

    Without being a doomsayer I note that WW1 started with the assassination of one person and what followed was the result of a complicated entanglement of military defence treaties/alliances.

    Unfortunately in 1914 the Machine Gun was the leading military technology available to deliver death and destruction – in 2015 things are a whole different kettle of fish.

    Why is this happening?

    I believe the world is facing an era where the decline of a dominant superpower (USA) (think olden days empires) has lead to a plethora of manic wannabes arising to establish a new equilibrium where they are pushing for their own version of Age of Empires – and as usual delivering death and destruction where ever they go – human nature never changes.

    • Colonial Viper 22.1
      25 November 2015 at 11:18 pm

      MH-17 was shot down by a Russian made BUK system but the knee jerk western propaganda that the Russians did it was never proven – the Ukranian military operates the same hardware.

      F 16 aircraft are technology designed in the 70’s – the same with the Sidewinder Missile used – obviously the Russian Electronic Countermeasures aren’t terribly effective.

      You need to do a bit more research before you make these statements.

      Turkey uses highly updated F-16 C/D variants which are generations ahead of the original F-16A. These jets will be in service for another two decades.

      And the modern Aim 9X sidewinder is a brilliant proven performer that has excellent heat seeking and anti-jamming characteristics. The sidewinder missile has such good potential for further modernisation that various variants will probably still be in service 25 years from now.

      NB the Su-24 is also a plane from the early 1970s.

  23. Stuart Munro 23
    25 November 2015 at 11:38 pm

    Those who protest that Russia’s incursion was momentary might recall how Russia deals with non-systematic civil aircraft incursions – flight 007 – or the more recent butchering of unarmed Asian fishing crews caught in their territorial waters.

    Turkey’s position is difficult – neither ISIS, nor a husky militarised Kurdish population, nor a Syrian client state dependent on and able to call on Russian armed intervention is a very desirable neighbour.

    • Colonial Viper 23.1
      25 November 2015 at 11:51 pm

      Evidence around Flight 007, which was a civilian flight that went way of course, makes it clear that the Soviets truly believed that it was a US military recon flight when it was ordered shot down.

      or the more recent butchering of unarmed Asian fishing crews caught in their territorial waters

      ?

      My first response to you is that your story is probably nonsense, as Russia has this year again reaffirmed that it will not reintroduce the death penalty for both humanitarian and legal reasons.

      • Stuart Munro 23.1.1
        26 November 2015 at 2:16 am

        Right…

        Your views of Russian conduct seem more than a little optimistic. The Koreans do not believe the Russian story.

        Not the only incident but you seem to like Russian sources:

        http://www.themoscowtimes.com/sitemap/free/2006/8/article/russians-kill-japanese-fisherman/203069.html

      • McFlock 23.1.2
        26 November 2015 at 8:00 am

        lol

        Turks shooting down an actual military ground-attack aircraft is wrong.
        Russians shooting down a civilian airliner is legitimate.

        Seems fair….

        • Colonial Viper 23.1.2.1
          26 November 2015 at 10:00 am

          Hi McFlock, if you are interested in understanding each tragic incident, you’ll have to think a bit deeper about the dynamics and background behind the two very different events.

          At the time of the shootdown of Flight 007 Reagan’s administration was actively attempting to ramp up fear in the Kremlin that the USA were preparing a large scale strategic attack, especially once his “Star Wars” missile defence programme had nullified the Soviet nuclear deterrent.

          It was also revealed later on that large US spy planes frequently flew routes near that space as many Soviet military installations were in the area.

  24. Tracey 24
    26 November 2015 at 7:10 am

    Putin managed to get back Crimea and part of Ukraine.

    • nadis 24.1
      26 November 2015 at 8:47 am

      this is an interesting read on Russia and their options on ukraine. The only result that makes strategic sense for russia is the one they cannot attain. Every other option they have results in a worse strategic outcome for Russia. It seems like the only way Russian adventures makes sense is through the lens of domestic support for Putin. Not a surprising outcome given the state of the economy and the “mis-allocation” of Russian resources. At the risk of invoking godwins law it is easy to see the clearest (but by no means the only example) of this.

      http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/515194/B2C_content/B2CWF1/Ukraine_Wargames-slideshare-final.pdf?t=1448422664384

      • Colonial Viper 24.1.1
        26 November 2015 at 9:42 am

        Stratfor has failed to advise the US Government correctly on Ukraine thus far, or to predict Russian strategy around Ukraine – what makes you think that has changed?

        Obama allowed himself to be filmed at the latest G20 having a quiet sit down chat with Putin in the hotel lobby. Jean Claude Juncker has said multiple times that Germany needs to re-establish better relations and economic ties with Russia.

        Looks to me like Russia’s strategy is winning back friends and thawing the isolation evident at last years G20 – where Tony Abbott threatened to “shirtfront” Putin. And where Putin found himself so locked out he left early in order to get some ‘extra sleep.’

  25. Pascals bookie 25
    26 November 2015 at 9:33 am

    Russia responds

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Paradoxy13/status/669598149665771520?p=p

    there are numerous reports of similar stuff at border crossings

  26. vto 26
    26 November 2015 at 2:02 pm

    Putin has been stepping into the western media of late ……..

    clever

    watch his popularity soar within the west

  27. johnm 27
    26 November 2015 at 4:06 pm

    Sultan Erdogan’s War on…Russia

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43530.htm

    President Putin nailed it; it was “a shot in the back”. Because all evidence is pointing towards an ambush: the F-16s might have been actually waiting for the Su-24s. With Turkish TV cameras available for maximum global impact.

    Two Su-24s were getting ready to strike a bunch of “moderate rebels”. Ankara says they were Turkmen — which the Turks finance and weaponize. But there is just a small bunch of Turkmen in northern Syria.

    The Su-24s were actually after Chechens and Uzbeks — plus a few Uyghurs — smuggled in with fake Turkish passports (Chinese intel is also on it), all of these operating in tandem with a nasty bunch of Turkish Islamo-fascists. Most of these goons transit back and forth between the CIA-weaponized Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Jabhat al-Nusra. These were the goons who machine-gunned the Russian pilots as they parachuted down after the hit on the Su-24.
    The Su-24s posed absolutely no threat to Turkey. Turkish UN Ambassador Halit Cevik’s letter to the Security Council is a joke; two Russian jets “warned 10 times in five minutes” to change direction, both flying “more than a mile” into Turkey for an interminable 17 seconds. The whole thing has already been amply debunked. Not to mention that Turkish — and NATO — planes “violate” the Syrian border all the time.

    Basically a War Crime against a sovereign nation helping another such nation,Syria, to fight off the violent madmen assaulting it( funded and supported by Turkey and the U$ Great Satan where they get their weapons from). Great Satan the U$ is behind this. ME lives are just trash to these psychopathic monsters mark this these neocon madmen may yet start WW111.

    • Colonial Viper 27.1
      26 November 2015 at 5:17 pm

      The survivor of the downed Su-24 (the navigator) says that they received no warnings, visual or radio, from the Turkish F-16, and that the missile hit them completely by surprise – the Su-24 performed no evasive actions.

      He also said that after many missions he knows the area well and there was no way they had strayed into Turkish airspace.

      https://www.rt.com/news/323431-saved-pilot-turkish-su24/

  28. johnm 28
    26 November 2015 at 4:53 pm

    MUST-SEE interview with John Pilger: USA, UK and France gave birth to ISIS monster

    • Colonial Viper 28.1
      26 November 2015 at 6:14 pm

      ‘Syria’s major crime is that it stands independently and prevents Israeli domination of the area’

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