Under National crime is out of control

Written By: - Date published: 9:07 am, September 17th, 2024 - 35 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, crime, making shit up, mark mitchell, Media, Social issues, spin, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

National must be feeling the pressure.

Last year every time a crime was committed they blamed Labour. Alleged soft on crime policies, trying to address the fiscal and moral failure that is our penal system, and repealing stunts such as the three trikes law were campaign opportunities for National to blame the soft lefties.

Armed with dodgy statistics they railed against Labour and promised to restore law and order, back the police and tackle the gangs, combat youth offending, put 300 more officers on the beat and provide real consequences for crime. The phrase “soft on crime” was used that often you would be forgiven to think that National had a trademark on it.

How are they going in their efforts to restore law and order?

Not very well.

There has been a spate of recent homicides. There is a real feeling there has been a significant spike in crime caused by harsh economic conditions.

And there is a real feeling that National is more interested in the PR opportunities provided by crime than actually doing something about it.

The past 24 hours provides a good insight into how the Government works.

Yesterday morning National lauded a reduction of the crime rate in downtown Auckland. There was a Beehive Press release and a walkabout and a press conference from the Auckland Police Station.

From the Beehive Press Release:

“We’re backing Police with additional powers and resources to get offenders off our streets. We’re investing in frontline police with an additional 500 Officers to enable increased police visibility in our main centres and communities.  For Auckland CBD this has seen an additional 21 beat staff deployed from July this year, bringing the total to 51,” says Mr Mitchell.   

Police data shows that from 1 January to 31 July this year, there was a 22 per cent reduction in serious assaults within the Auckland CBD compared with the same period last year, and an 18 per cent reduction in serious assaults resulting in injury.

“This data shows that we are turning a corner, and that a whole of system co-ordinated approach is working to make Auckland a safe city and one we can be proud to showcase as a gateway to New Zealand for overseas visitors.

The probem with this is that it is doubtful that the reduction is related to the increase in police numbers. The additional police were put into place in July, which is at the end of the period mentioned.

Of even more concern is that crime rates in the city increased by 7% over the same period.

I get the strong feeling that the problem has been shifted, not addressed.

And how about this description of what is happening in the country which could let you justifiably claim that crime is getting out of control.

Today’s press conference followed the release of national retail crime data that showed there had been 8207 more theft and related offences such as shoplifting, 66 more cases of acts intended to cause injury like assaults and 17 more cases of sexual assaults and related offences in the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period last year – a 17% increase.

Over the five months, shoplifting and theft spiked to 49,505 cases, up from 41,298 last year, and 1670 assault cases were attended by police, an increase from 1604.

There was also a total of 106 sexual assaults, up from 89, according to the data.

The data painted an unflattering picture of the Government’s key policy pledge to crack down on retail crime with the introduction of new police initiatives to curb violence and anti-social behaviour.

Then in the afternoon the reason for the walk about and the lauding of a limited change in statistics in one particular area became clear.

The Government’s public service target on crime figures were released and the target has clearly not been met.

The aim is to reduce the number of victims of violent crime by 20,000 people by 2030 but the number had increased by 30,000 since October last year.

Ouch.

Get the feeling the good news early event was designed to try and divert attention from the substantial increase in crime?

To further divert attention the Government announced that it would introduce legislation this week to make changes to the Sentencing Act.

From Radio New Zealand:

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today announced changes to the Sentencing Act after the weekly Cabinet meeting.

The reforms included a limit on how much and how frequently judges can discount sentences.

Minister of Justice Paul Goldsmith said the changes meant criminals would “face real consequences for crime and victims are prioritised”.

There had been a “concerning trend” in recent years where courts had imposed fewer and shorter prison sentences, he said.

“Public confidence in the ability of our sentencing system to deter and denounce offending has diminished.

“These changes will help ensure there are 20,000 fewer victims of violent crime by 2029, alongside reducing serious repeat youth offending by 15 per cent.”

Changes will include capping maximum sentence discounts that a Judge can order, preventing repeat discounts for youth and remorse, introducting a new aggravating factor to address offences against sole charge workers, encouraging the use of cumulative sentences for offences commiteed while on bail, in custody or parole, introducing a sliding scame of discounts for guilty pleas depending on what stage the guilty plea was entered. They have been announced many times.

I wonder if Crown Counsel are working overtime getting the bill ready so that National can attempt to divert attention from the surge in number of victims of crimes.

And I wish they would just let Judges get on with their job. Judges are highly trained and compassionate professionals. They do not need to have layer upon layer of these tweaks being put on the exercise of their discretion. They just need to be able to get on with their job of dispensing Justice.

Jenna Lynch did not hold back.

Did you get that?

The measure that National uses showed victim numbers to be static under Labour’s reign despite National’s claim that crime was out of control under Labour’s watch. It also shows a recent increase in the numbers during the time that National is in control. And Labour somehow was the party that was soft on crime.

Christopher Luxon saying that he was not interested in “petty politics” really rankles. He has built his career out of misusing data, scratching itches and misleading us while at the same time having no vision for a better New Zealand.

This is deeply cynical politics. Celebrating a limited change in local crime statistics on the same day that a significant increase in the number of victims was being announced and then saying you are not interested in petty politics when your whole career is based on petty politics is as cynical as you can get.

35 comments on “Under National crime is out of control ”

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  1. Macro 1
    17 September 2024 at 9:25 am

    Last year every time a crime was committed they blamed Labour.

    And they still are. This "government of responsibility" takes great care in taking no responsibility for their actions.

    Indeed everything they touch turns to custard. Maybe they would be better off running a custard pie shop.

  2. tc 2
    17 September 2024 at 9:31 am

    That probably explains the recent granny puff piece on minister mitchells policing days.

    Build empathy…tick.

  4. Ngungukai 4
    17 September 2024 at 9:52 am

    Very few Ram Raid now days under National, hardly hear about them these days, Luxon, Mitchell & Goldsmith have done a cracking job sorting this problem out.

    • mickysavage 4.1
      17 September 2024 at 10:03 am

      Figures have been coming down for a while. Labour's wrap around policies were working.

    • Psych Nurse 4.2
      17 September 2024 at 10:48 am

      Just because you are not hearing about ram raids dosen't mean they are not occuring.

    • Macro 4.3
      17 September 2024 at 10:59 am

      Many more bollards and heavy security structures installed in front of vulnerable stores also slowing down ram raiding.

    • tWig 4.4
      17 September 2024 at 11:28 am

      My theory is that it is a crime of choice for recruitment of young people into gangs, and orchestrated by higher-ups. It's a form of intimidation that softens a community for protection payments. If there's fewer ram raids, the trend is being driven by further up the pipeline.

      • Hunter Thompson II 4.4.1
        17 September 2024 at 5:18 pm

        I have wondered the same thing, ie whether doing a ram raid is a condition of being able to join a gang. But that may not be the case given the age of some offenders.

        IMO large scale drug importation and sale has expanded irrespective of which political party was in power. The big profit from that illicit activity is too hard for some to resist.

    • joe 4.5
      17 September 2024 at 12:24 pm

      Sarcasm presumably.
      More they have grouped them into the "Burglary" category or similar and not a category on its own so they are hidden from the stats.
      Prove me wrong.

    • Georgecom 4.6
      17 September 2024 at 2:13 pm

      No retail crime at all under national

  5. mickysavage 5
    17 September 2024 at 9:56 am

    Maybe Mitchell should resign. After all he promised …

    https://twitter.com/rugbyintel/status/1835789183669137492

    • AB 5.1
      17 September 2024 at 10:09 am

      If I had ever been stupid enough to take Luxon at his word, I would have assumed that in a Luxon government, a failure to 'deliver' would be terminal for anyone's career.

      I wasn't that stupid. It was totally clear during the election that National was so determined to get their far-right economic agenda in place, that they were prepared to lie outrageously about their ability to reduce crime. And that Mitchell would be in a world of pain and obfuscation within 12 months of them winning. How long till Sonny Kaushal, the guy they cynically rolled out at every opportunity, turns on them? What a disgusting bunch of opportunists National is – they deserve every ounce of this humiliation and more.

      • Mountain Tui 5.1.1
        17 September 2024 at 12:32 pm

        Sunny has been paid off.

        $3.6million or something to chair a crime committee so he and his pals can talk about crime while being funded for it.

        Sunny was "grateful" he told Newstalk ZB – when Goldsmith announced the hush job.

  6. Jimmy 6
    17 September 2024 at 10:06 am

    The judges need to start actually sentencing people properly and that could help the crime. Because of this bloke Singe, two people are dead. And he gets 12 months home detention.

    Auckland CBD shooting: Man who helped supply gun used by Matu Reid in deadly rampage sentenced – NZ Herald

    • Mountain Tui 6.1
      17 September 2024 at 10:21 am

      NZ's incarceration rate is one of the highest in the world 173 per 100,000 – higher than Australia, Canada and the UK.

      Of course, it's nothing compared to the USA – which has the highest incarceration and some of the most violent and highest crime rates in the world.

      People on the right and on NZME like to cherry pick anecdotes, but forget that the real solution is to address root causes.

      Sir Peter Gluckman, John Key's Chief Science Advisor, wrote a detailed report explaining this – for example, he found boot camps will only increase crime and worsen outcomes. He noted incarcerating people would only lead to higher crime in the generations.

      The real answers are harder and more complex – but they can be tackled with the right will and courage.

      Let's face it, it's easy to let Honeywell and other multinational corporations make money off of NZ by helping Luxon and co build their mega prisons, but all experts agree – such moves will only worsen crime and harden it too.

      Now – the statistics tell the story – significantly more crimes under National – including violent crime.

      By the same measure, no real rise under Labour.

      But of course many on the right will just pivot to – and try to emphasise – anecdotes while ignoring the hard work that goes on behind the scenes in justice.

      Finally, incarceration costs a lot of money $200,000 per prisoner per year and that will only go up.

      • PsyclingLeft.Always 6.1.1
        18 September 2024 at 3:25 pm

        People on the right and on NZME like to cherry pick anecdotes, but forget that the real solution is to address root causes.

        Absolutely. They cannot, and will not, ever see that the lack of care at the top of the cliff (help, listening, empathy,wellbeing,love) leads straight down to the bottom. Been proven so many times. Do most of these People really want to go to prison ? So often..their choices …and paths were made for them. IMO this link would be similar around the World, incl NZ

        Lack of rationality

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_(penology)#Evidential_flaws

    • Drowsy M. Kram 6.2
      17 September 2024 at 10:52 am

      Ahh – it's our judges' fault. Maybe they're a bit 'soft', but who'd be a judge eh Jiminy.

      “Communities and hardworking Kiwis should not be made to live and work in fear of these offenders who clearly have a flagrant disregard for the law, corrections officers and the general public.”
      https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/prioritising-victims-tougher-sentences

      Ngāti Goldsmith managed to squeeze in 'work' twice – he's a piece of work alright.

      Sentencing package misses the mark by a mile
      “After announcing the Government’s target of 20,000 fewer people ending up victim of a violent crime has instead recorded 30,000 more victims as of June, Paul Goldsmith has brought nothing new to the table with his sentencing ideas,” said Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb.

      Being ‘tough on crime’ is easy, but it doesn't work [21 Sept 2023]
      As someone who works in the criminal justice sector, the recent policy proposals by major political parties make we wonder whether politicians are more concerned about appearing hard on crime than they are with reducing criminal offending.

      This long-standing punitive approach to crime withstands the plethora of evidence and research that disproves its effectiveness for reducing re-offending. On the contrary, criminal justice experts and statisticians have consistently said harsher sentencing increases recidivism.

      Why do we continue to entertain the ‘tough on crime’ narrative? My guess is that politicians are subject to the approval of the public who are getting swept up in common myths about crime and public safety. The public deserves better, to have accurate information to inform their vote in this election.
      …
      Incarceration, isolation and punishment is not working. It’s not keeping our communities safe from crime. We need a community and family-focused approach, so people feel more valued within society than they do in gangs and prisons.

      Our govt – a coalition of myth makers frown Still, maybe there'll be fewer Category 1 driving offences thanks to the Hon Simeon 'I feel the need, the need for speed' Brown.

      • tc 6.2.1
        17 September 2024 at 11:25 am

        Goldsmith's served his time doing others bidding and now gets to dish it out from high office.

        You could put an ACT badge on him and nothing changes like many others as theyre so interchangeable now.

        Luxons managing to the strategy not leading a country.

    • AB 6.3
      17 September 2024 at 2:42 pm

      Yeah, let's leave it to the fevered reckons of Judge Jimmy, that respected jurist.

  7. joe 7
    17 September 2024 at 12:25 pm

    A snap poll on three news last night had about 80% believing crime has not lowered at all.

  8. SPC 8
    17 September 2024 at 1:36 pm

    It is like their health policy (last government more hip and knee ops for their older voters, less focus on endometriosis etc). This time more cancer drugs (middle class people get cancer too) but it reduces capability in other areas less money for staffing of hospitals and making the health reform (IT and support capacity) work and primary health care – they presume their voters have health insurance to continue to access GP services.

    Here they re-direct attention to an increased presence in the central city, and cite success, all while other areas are under-resourced.

    And their real plan is to imprison more people, admitting they intend to manage the neglected underclass. So 1961 Hunn Report, assimilate a Maori working class and imprison those non compliant to the settler urban order.

    https://teara.govt.nz/en/document/3570/the-hunn-report

    The thing is, their immigration policy is going to create a much broader underclass to replace the Pakeha middle class and aspirational Maori working class moving over to Oz. By 2050 we will be the England once left behind – a class divide society.

    This is an inevitable consequence of an under-funded public sector and a privileged class not paying any CG or estate taxation.

  9. Ngungukai 9
    18 September 2024 at 12:40 pm

    Mitch & Luxton are doing a cracking job sorting out Crime.

  10. Patricia Bremner 10
    18 September 2024 at 12:45 pm

    A certain "car crushing" Police Minister in a past National Government, was found to have fudged Police Statistics. Guess what? Said Lady is now the Attorney General, and that is how they roll. Fudging scapegoating and cuts to services and rewards for "face".

  11. Mike the Lefty 11
    18 September 2024 at 1:08 pm

    A 22% reduction in crime rate in Central Auckland may be good news for businesses in Central Auckland and National cheerleader Sonny Kaushal, but doesn't do much for people in other areas who are sick and tired of vandalism, shoplifting, drunken hooliganism, burglary, theft, speed idiots, drug dealers – the list goes on.

    When you have done something about this Mr Luxon, THEN you can bang your drum as loud as you like and I will give you credit as well.

    There is a lot more to NZ than the Central Auckland CBD.

    • Mountain Tui 11.1
      18 September 2024 at 1:15 pm

      They apparently imported more police there to get the numbers down. Crime – including violent crime – is up all over the country.

      • ianmac 11.1.1
        18 September 2024 at 3:54 pm

        Wondered if the increase of foot policemen in Central Auckland must have been supplied from somewhere else, and that means that somewhere else is at higher risk. Something like robbing Peter to ……..

  12. Georgecom 12
    19 September 2024 at 7:21 pm

    Criminals will be voting for national 2026. Economic growth going backward, businesses closing and jobs being lost all over the place, but crime going gang busters, a real growth industry under national.

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