And now, the end is near …

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, April 14th, 2025 - 82 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, Economy, Free Trade, national, nz first, trade, winston peters - Tags:

It looks like the three way marriage made in hell is on the rocks.

Richard Harman at Politik has written a must read post (sorry it is behind a paywall) suggesting that Winston Peters has upped his subtle undermining of Christopher Luxon while the NZ First Board has started planning for an election this year.

The cause of the current fissure is Luxon’s handling of US Trade issues. Radio New Zealand has the following summary:

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has repeated his view that there is a trade war playing out between the US and China, despite the foreign minister calling that language “hysterical”.

…

Luxon has spoken with leaders from throughout the Indo-Pacific and European Union to discuss international trade, and how they might be able to work together to take a “like-minded approach” to trade.

But Peters said the phone calls were premature, and Luxon should call him next time.

In Tonga on Friday, he said politicians should “tone down” and wait until they saw and knew what was going on.

“Markets lose their nerve. Share market speculators lose their nerve. Politicians should not lose their nerve, and that’s my advice,” he told RNZ.

“There’s no need to react at this point in time. Let’s first find out what we’re dealing with, let the dust settle in.”

This follows on from Peters’ rather deft handling of the Cook Strait Ferry debacle. At least he is in the process of obtaining rail enabled ferries. The $4 billion price tag may take a lot of explaining but the most obvious response is that he is fixing up a mess created by Willis and National.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has the perfect response, asking that Luxon and Peters “stop their bickering” and act like a functional government.

And bickering is the right word. After all saying publicly “I hope that he’ll get my message and he’ll call me next time” is not the sort of thing you would do if you wanted to give an impression of unity and strength.

And it reinforces public perceptions of Luxon. Using phrases from self help business books is not the way to run a Government.

Peters steps down as Deputy Prime Minister in July. The chances of some sort of blow up after this look pretty high.

82 comments on “And now, the end is near … ”

  1. Tiger Mountain 1
    15 April 2025 at 6:34 am

    There is ample room for instability with ineffectual bungler Luxon and obvious friction between Act and NZ First.

    NZ Labour needs to get its policy together rather than rely on not being National. Plus an arrangement with Greens and Te Pāti Māori would be helpful too. Greens and TPM have some very good policy already…
    https://www.maoriparty.org.nz/policy
    https://www.greens.org.nz/policy_complete_party

    Labour should go into a potential early election with some biggies such as…
    • Wealth Tax, measures as per the Parker Report
    • Signal Free Dental and half price public transport (moving to fully fare free)
    • Implement full WEAG Report
    • Signal renationalisation of power generation and supply, large scale Solar roll out, and incentivise EV uptake

    The next election early or on schedule, is vital to eject CoC given the level of vandalism they have managed in barely half a term.

    Reply
    • Kay 1.1
      15 April 2025 at 8:45 am

      One can't deny those are admiral (and highly necessary) policies for Labour to initiate, but there's no way that will happen. The middle-class, employed homeowners they don't want to upset will never approve of policies that will greatly assist the citizens further down the food chain.

      Labour still hasn't clicked on to the large voting base they have alienated. Beneficiaries are a c.300,000 bloc, and add even for for low payed workers. There is currently absolutely no reason for these groups to vote Labour.

      Reply
      • Tiger Mountain 1.1.1
        15 April 2025 at 9:20 am

        You are right at the moment Kay, about LP pandering to the comparatively well off, but great damage has been done to thousands by this Govt. and a reaction will be there with some positive leadership.

        Demands for the many need to be raised or they will never happen.

        People can easily also vote for TPM/Green…

        Reply
      • gsays 1.1.2
        15 April 2025 at 9:37 am

        Yep, both are correct.

        A two pronged strategy for the left parties to consider.

        Each party have their policy platform.

        At the same time a campaign to identify, agitate, educate and organise the non voters. A campaign that is harmonious across the three parties of the left bloc.

        Edit, the clock is ticking, we need to hear what the vision is for Aotearoa well before election cycle.

        Reply
        • Kay 1.1.2.1
          15 April 2025 at 10:38 am

          Totally agree about the non-voters. If all of those who didn't vote for whatever reason voted, the makeup of parliament would be very different. It's very hard not to blame them for our current situation.

          I strongly believe that the disenfranchisment (is that a word?) of the lowest on the food chain is a long-term deliberate strategy that's worked very well. See also the US, and UK. Recall the complete beating down of the plebs with the RW governments, with the LW ones only improving the situation via token measures. What incentive is there to vote, when it's crystal clear that governments of any stripe don't give a damn?

          Greens and TPM are really the only options, and it would be lovely to see their numbers increase. A 3 way coalition where Labour is significantly weakened and forced to negotiate.

          Unfortunately, that can only happen if our voting stats go back into the 90s. But I cant' think how to bring back the voters who have become completely disengaged from the process.

          Reply
          • gsays 1.1.2.1.1
            15 April 2025 at 12:15 pm

            "What incentive is there to vote,…"

            Howzabout the first $15,000 tax free?

            Someone here would know the math's on that. Then holler it from the rooftops.

            Reply
            • alwyn 1.1.2.1.1.1
              15 April 2025 at 1:58 pm

              The Government used to have available an on-line model that let you play at being the Minister of Finance for a day. It let you adjust their numbers with what you wanted to do in terms of taxes and expenditure.

              I can't remember whether it was provided by Treasury or IRD but I can't find it anywhere on line. Pity, as it let people see what the effect of their favourite policy desire would have on the Crown Accounts.

              It was rather disconcerting to use, if your ideas were really away with the fairies. One might discover that your idea on changing the tax brackets would lead to something like a deficit of $50 billion a year.

              Does anyone else remember it or what happened to it? I last remember playing with it about 6 years ago

              Reply
          • weka 1.1.2.1.2
            15 April 2025 at 2:01 pm

            Swarbrick had a plan when she became co-leader to build a grass roots movement. Maybe over the next election cycle if they can do a better job of vetting and supporting their MPs.

            Reply
  2. Patricia Bremner 2
    15 April 2025 at 6:47 am

    Well yes, Winnie has form, and he does not like to be disrespected.

    The idea of Luxon "bull in a china shop" running Foreign Affairs, or Seymour becoming Deputy PM must be difficult pills to swallow.

    Winston is more cantankerous in his older age, and more inclined to "take a position" and has courted some strange bedfellows, but two of his recent actions show his political compass is still active.

    One is rail on the new ferries, the other his planning the demise of greyhound racing.

    Winston plays a mean game of political chess, and would politically wipe Luxon's board, stating he could not agree with giving up New Zealand's independence for some shonkey trade group, which puts us out on a dangerous limb, or similar reason showing Luxon's lack of finesse. imo

    How will I feel if this were to come to pass? Unsurprised, for I never could envisage him working under Seymour.

    Reply
    • thinker 2.1
      15 April 2025 at 7:13 am

      Yeah, Luxon would need a book showing him how the pieces move, while Winston calls out "Scacomati".

      Reply
    • SPC 2.2
      15 April 2025 at 8:15 am

      Peters is the stooge of the POTUS 47 regime here.

      A tacit support for the anti-foreigner and anti-free trade sentiment and gaslighting any effort by the international community to work together in management of the impact of Trump's actions.

      He is posing this as, the propriety of the western nations not contending with the Americans in public.

      But it is obstructionism.

      If Trump is RasPutin's Tsarina, what is Peter's to Trump?

      Reply
    • Chris 2.3
      16 April 2025 at 4:01 pm

      That's right, I wonder if Peters was never going to let Seymour be DPM and that the Luxon/foreign affairs issue is timely for him to pull the pin.

      Reply
  3. Ad 3
    15 April 2025 at 7:31 am

    What a sick place for our politics to be in the midst of an accelerating global crisis.

    We don't even have a viable alternative government.

    Labour are just beginning to recover electorally and internally, tracking ever rightward.

    The Greens are incapable of any leadership position by any MP bar Steve Abel, even if they keep a seat.

    The Maori Party are just politically toxic to being in government.

    A snap election would simply bring the 2017 problem:

    Winston chooses, and Winston extracts a disproportionate price.

    Luxon needs to do the job he's paid for and govern.

    Reply
    • Bearded Git 3.1
      15 April 2025 at 10:00 am

      The Greens are polling 11% plus according to the current Wiki poll of polls despite the recent odious and inaccurate attacks by the MSM, especially the Herald.

      Chloe and Marama are doing good jobs as leaders.

      They neither need to win a seat nor do they have a leadership problem.

      Reply
      • Ad 3.1.1
        15 April 2025 at 10:09 am

        Now look at that Green list coldly and tell me which of the MPs could master a Ministerial portfolio. Marama is spent. Chloe is content to chase peripheral liberal dogwhistles. The remainder are silent or damaged.

        What an alternative coalition government needs is true masters of a portfolio. Not mere ideas.

        The Green list is now weaker than NZFirst's.

        Reply
        • Bearded Git 3.1.1.1
          15 April 2025 at 10:39 am

          Chloe, Marama, Genter and as you say Abel. That's all you need.

          I'm not familiar enough with the rest to judge but doubtless there is plenty of talent there.

          The Greens will get 12-14 percent as Hipkins takes Labour further to the Right.

          Reply
          • weka 3.1.1.1.1
            15 April 2025 at 10:47 am

            or the Green vote will drop again because of another MP issue or another controversy they don't handle well from the perspective of voters. You and I will still vote for them, along with another 10% or so of the voters, but I doubt the Greens are ready for an election. They're only just sorting out their selection process, and they've had a solid 3 years of fallout from MPs, and things outside of their control (MD's health, the death of Collins) that has impacted on their normal work. All of that is a lot for a small party to be dealing with, along with the departure of Shaw.

            There's nothing wrong with acknowledging the party is not at is best. We should talk about this now, because it's not good to talk about it once an election campaign has started. Remember when CS became co-leader she talked about this plan to build a grass roots movement (the idea was to move the country left/greenward)? That hasn't happened imo because of all of the above.

            I really hope there isn't an election this year, simply to give them more time to recover.

            Reply
            • Bearded Git 3.1.1.1.1.1
              15 April 2025 at 1:22 pm

              Yes agree Weka…Winston may have the Greens' travails on his mind as one reason for pulling the plug on the coalition.

              But I say again the MSM has either exaggerated or manufactured all of those travails. I'm surprised that so many on TS don't recognise this.

              Reply
              • Ad …
                15 April 2025 at 1:35 pm

                What the Greens could do with, Bearded Git, is a really experienced environmental campaigner from the provinces who is in their late 60s who could bring a team around them and generate an easy $25k and would bring in in South Island votes, to stand both on the List and in the Waitaki seat.

                Reply
              • weka …
                15 April 2025 at 1:59 pm

                That's a really good point about Peters' motivations.

                But I say again the MSM has either exaggerated or manufactured all of those travails. I'm surprised that so many on TS don't recognise this.

                It's more of a both/and. The Greens have had a tough time in recent years *and* MSM still is trying to sell ads and clicks. But I also remember a time when the Greens were in opposition and MSM gave them a lot of space to present challenges to the government, they treated them like the Opposition.

                My views about the difficulties the Greens have had are based more on what the Greens say and do than the MSM. For instance with Tana, I went and watched her interviews and actually listened to what she was saying as well as what the leaders said/did.

                With BD I was listening to left wing analysis from experienced commentators from across a range of positions, as well as having seen the drama unfold in twitter in real time, so I had a pretty good direct understanding of the drivers of the twitter storm and the dynamics involved. I don't think the Greens handled it as well as they could have, but I expect it won't affect their polling much.

                In an election campaign, that would be different and I remain unconvinced that the Greens are prepared. Many people vote on perceptions of competence, and this is one of the GP's vulnerabilities. I will be utterly unsurprised if their vote stalls over things like this if they continue to happen.

                But, I also hope that they do sort their shit out*, get a clean run so they can focus on what they are good at, and that they've had enough time to develop some cutting edge policy eg the green budget next month 👍

                *eg I have heard that they've made changes to how candidates are vetted in the selection process.

                Reply
                • Bearded Git …
                  15 April 2025 at 3:00 pm

                  I agree Tana was a disaster…but she was the only disaster.

                  The Greens handled it as well as they could in the circumstances but they were never going to come out of it well.

                  All parties have their bad eggs from time to time.

                  Reply
                  • weka …
                    15 April 2025 at 3:55 pm

                    Kerekere too. Both are probably selection mistakes.

                    That they gave BD the option of leaving up those posts was a misake, what happened was entirely predictable by them, so having made the original mistake they should have been better prepared. Fingers crossed the better vetting process will help, but with BD it looks like a conflict between the pragmatics of parliamentary politics and wanting to respect autonomy. MPs should be willing to give up some things about their social media if they want to be MPs.

                    All three of those MPs demonstrated that their personal views were more important to them than the party's integrity and public standing.

                    Reply
                    • Bearded Git …
                      15 April 2025 at 5:33 pm

                      Yes but kerekere is going back years …..if you are going to bring that up and go back that far then the Nats and Labour have had numerous problems with their MP's in that period.

                    • weka []
                      15 April 2025 at 6:56 pm

                      Well two years, but that’s the point, it seems like it’s been going on for longer without a break. Public perception.

                      2023 Kerekere
                      2024 Shaw leaves
                      2024 Ghaharaman, the Tana saga
                      2025 handling of attacks on Doyle

                    • weka []
                      15 April 2025 at 6:58 pm

                      Yes other parties have problems too. But because the GP is smaller, it’s a greater % of their caucus. And it does affect them, both in real terms and in terms of perception. They have the additional problem of being the country’s conscience, and a higher standard to live up to.

              • gsays …
                15 April 2025 at 2:39 pm

                "But I say again the MSM has either exaggerated or manufactured all of those travails"

                Pray tell, what was exaggerated in the Tana saga?

                Reply
                • Bearded Git …
                  15 April 2025 at 3:01 pm

                  See my comment above gsays.

                  Reply
                  • gsays …
                    15 April 2025 at 4:30 pm

                    Yep all good.

                    I am no fan of MSM (best not call it "lame stream media" in the current climate) but we owe Steve Kilgallon a debt of thanks for revealing the exploitation when he did.

                    If that dropped in the 6 months prior to election…

                    I want to have more faith in The Greens, as I said the other day, competency is what is lacking.

                    Reply
                    • Bearded Git …
                      15 April 2025 at 5:37 pm

                      I don't think competency is lacking ….the Greens have good policies and competent leaders….Genter has been excellent for many years too.

                      Are you saying ACT and NZF are more competent than the Greens?

                    • gsays []
                      15 April 2025 at 6:16 pm

                      Yes, absolutely.

                      Not that I am comfortable with it but Seymour and Van Helden are 2 of the most effective MPs in the house.

                      There's no questioning Peters competence.

                    • weka []
                      15 April 2025 at 6:59 pm

                      I agree that competency isn’t lacking in terms of MPs and their skills in parliament. They do seem to have some problems with internal processes, and comms. That’s where perception comes in.

                    • gsays []
                      16 April 2025 at 8:31 am

                      I watched a clip from Question Time where Swarbrick was asking Luxon about public private partnerships.

                      "How much private profit is he comfortable asking New Zealanders to fork out for his public-private partnerships…."

                      but went on to say..

                      "…because he refuses to unlock domestic capital by fixing our tax system, which currently incentivises unproductive speculative investment in housing, recommended by known degrowth institutions like the IMF?"

                      I want to know the answer to the first part of the question. Luxon, as we all know is not great in this environment, was able to waffle and squirm away from any meaningful response.

                      I realise the passion and multifaceted issues we face. Stick to the simple question, get an answer.

                      Yes, I know the Speaker is *cough cough* … not helpful. Keep it simple.

                      This speaks to competence.

                    • weka []
                      16 April 2025 at 8:56 am

                      If you link, we can look at that in context. Outside of context, it’s hard to judge.

                    • weka []
                      16 April 2025 at 11:26 am

                      I read the transcript (didn’t watch the vid). What’s the competency problem? CS’s sentence construction is a bit convoluted, but beyond that, are you saying that the questions and direction are off? You probably watch more of the House than I do, so I don’t have a sense of what she is trying to do there in the context of House norms.

                    • gsays []
                      16 April 2025 at 12:23 pm

                      More than a bit convoluted.

                      I only watched that question as it was in a group of links that Incognito posted, it's not a habit of mine to watch QT- too much tinfoil to chew😮.

                      There are several great points raised by CS – public money supporting private profit, lack of tax reform, runaway housing market.

                      Speaking as one who used to be, shall we say, evasive in their speech, this is a gimme to Luxon to evade, obfuscate and waffle off point.

                      As an aside, I'm heartened TGP haven't waded into the Costello Culture War distraction about pregnant people.

                    • weka []
                      16 April 2025 at 12:39 pm

                      sorry, still not clear. I thought her syntax as odd, but are you saying the questions themselves were too convoluted?

                      As an aside, I’m heartened TGP haven’t waded into the Costello Culture War distraction about pregnant people.

                      Let’s take the wins we can get 😁

                    • arkie …
                      16 April 2025 at 9:05 am

                      Oral Questions — Questions to Ministers

                      Question No. 6—Prime Minister

                      6. CHLÖE SWARBRICK (Co-Leader—Green) to the Prime Minister: E tautoko ana ia i ngā kōrero me ngā mahi katoa a tōna Kāwanatanga?

                      [Does he stand by all of his Government's statements and actions?]

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON (Prime Minister): Yes.

                      Chlöe Swarbrick: Does he stand by his statement yesterday that "Profit is a good thing" in the context of public-private partnerships, and, if so, how much private profit is he comfortable with the people of this country forking out for, on top of the base cost of providing public services and infrastructure?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: In answer to the first part of the question, absolutely.

                      Chlöe Swarbrick: When the Prime Minister says, "Profit is a good thing.", does he mean the $1 million in excess profits a day made by the supermarket duopoly, or the record billions in profits made by banks and the energy sector that a former National Government partially privatised, or something else?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: I mean, I actually am stumped for words because the Green Party is a degrowth party and the thought, I think, in that question, of Chlöe Swarbrick ever being a finance Minister in a Labour-Greens future Government—

                      SPEAKER: No, no, that's enough. Prime Minister—

                      Hon Member: Send him out!

                      SPEAKER: No, that's not the case. Thank you for your advice. But what I will say is if you ask questions like that, you'll get a political answer. And you may not think it's a very political question, but it most certainly was. Now, please ask your next supplementary.

                      Chlöe Swarbrick: How much private profit is he comfortable asking New Zealanders to fork out for his public-private partnerships because he refuses to unlock domestic capital by fixing our tax system, which currently incentivises unproductive speculative investment in housing, recommended by known degrowth institutions like the IMF?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: Well, what I'm determined to do is to make sure that we actually build infrastructure in this country. This is a country—over many decades now—that has suffered from low economic productivity. It is a country that has suffered from capital thinness. Just look at our relative performance in the OECD at attracting foreign direct investment to New Zealand—and we have a major problem. So we make no apologies for accessing private capital—whether it's overseas or domestic pools of capital—to get things built for New Zealanders. Because if we can build more roads, more hospitals, more schools, more wind farms, more renewable energy, that is a good thing for this country and that's what we need to do.

                      Rt Hon Winston Peters: Can I ask the Prime Minister, has his Cabinet decided to review all over the world where Das Kapital still works, and do they as a Cabinet intend to take on those economic theories?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: It would be safe to say that we are not proponents of Das Kapital or Thomas Piketty.

                      Chlöe Swarbrick: How much private profit is he comfortable asking New Zealanders to fork out for his public-private partnerships because he refuses to fairly tax the wealthiest New Zealanders in this country, who currently pay an effective tax rate half that of our nurses, our teachers, and our firefighters?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: I am determined to get things built in this country. If you ask the question, "What do we need to do to improve economic productivity and to lift the standard of living for all New Zealanders?", there are five things. We have to have a world-class education system; we have to embrace more science, technology, and innovation; we have to have more modern, reliable infrastructure; get rid of the red tape; and embrace trade and investment. Those are the five things that are proven consistently to lift economic productivity and the standard of living for all Kiwis. That's what we're doing.

                      Chlöe Swarbrick: Why is the Government refusing to invest in publicly led, publicly funded, and publicly operated infrastructure, given that we all in this House know, given the reports, that private companies, when they get involved to make a profit—it costs more for New Zealanders in the long run?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: Look, there are so many assumptions in that question, but I just would reassure the member that this is a Government spending a huge amount of money on capital investment. We are pummelling more money into health. We are putting more money into education. We are opening up and spending more monies on core infrastructure. But it's an "and"—"and" we want to access capital so that we can actually get things built faster and quicker rather than just relying on our own balance sheet at this time in a country that is already capital thin.

                      Hon Shane Jones: Prime Minister, is the Prime Minister aware that his Government inherited a green fund—the green fund hoped to find fellow investors who hoped to make a profit from clean green energy—and since the disappearance of James Shaw, what has changed about that group over there?

                      SPEAKER: No, no, the last part of that question is definitely not answerable, but you may answer the first part of the question.

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: It's fair to say that we've got some serious concerns around the performance of the Green Investment Fund, and I'm sure we'll have more to say about that shortly.

                      Hon Paul Goldsmith: To the Prime Minister, what's his message to the tens of thousands of New Zealanders who own their own small businesses or are self-employed and get out every day to deliver good quality services to their customers and hope at the end of the day to make a profit in order to feed their family, today in this House?

                      Rt Hon CHRISTOPHER LUXON: Well, I want them to know that we appreciate them. They are people of ambition and aspiration. They take a risk, they use their own capital to go off and build a business, to employ thousands of people—that is a good thing. We want to reward that behaviour, we want to encourage it, we want to see a lot more of it—more entrepreneurship, more innovation, more investment. [Interruption]

                      Hon Willie Jackson: Mr Speaker.

                      SPEAKER: Just a minute. I think the House needs a moment to settle.

                      https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/document/HansS_20250325_061620000/6-question-no-6-prime-minister

                    • weka []
                      16 April 2025 at 11:08 am

                      thanks arkie.

        • weka 3.1.1.2
          15 April 2025 at 10:54 am

          I'm less concerned about the current MPs than I am about what the list would look like if there was a snap election.

          For reference here's the list of current 15 MPs.

          Marama Davidson (list only)
          Chlöe Swarbrick (Auckland Central)
          Julie Anne Genter (Rongotai)
          Teanau Tuiono (Palmerston North)
          Lan Pham (Banks Peninsula)
          Ricardo Menéndez March (Mount Albert)
          Steve Abel (New Lynn)
          Hūhana Lyndon (Te Tai Tokerau)
          Scott Willis (Taieri)
          Kahurangi Carter (Christchurch Central)
          Celia Wade-Brown (Wairarapa)
          Dr. Lawrence Xu-Nan (Epsom)
          Tamatha Paul (Wellington Central) not on the List
          Francisco Hernandez
          Benjamin Doyle

          The 2023 election party list is here

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_lists_in_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#Green_Party

          Reply
          • weka 3.1.1.2.1
            15 April 2025 at 10:55 am

            the thing that stands out for me is why I don't know what a bunch of those MPs are doing: Tuinon, Pham, Lyndon, Willis, Carter, Wade-Brown,

            Reply
            • Bearded Git 3.1.1.2.1.1
              15 April 2025 at 1:24 pm

              Do you know what two thirds of the Nats MP's are doing?

              Reply
              • weka …
                15 April 2025 at 1:49 pm

                no, but I don't care about them. I follow the GP on twitter, but they're not longer active there. Sometimes I remember to look at their FB page. I look at the website News page periodically. I follow NZpol on twitter. I read TS. Something should be showing up. The website is the place I see activity happening the most.

                Reply
                • dpalenski …
                  15 April 2025 at 7:27 pm

                  You made just check whether the Greens are on Bluesky and no there are not, still only Te Pāti Māori.

                  Reply
                  • weka …
                    15 April 2025 at 7:42 pm

                    Maybe it’s a tactical withdrawal given how vitriolic twitter in particular is. Or maybe they didn’t have the staff resources to do it well. It’s a shame though.

                    Reply
              • weka …
                15 April 2025 at 2:09 pm

                I've just gone to follow the rest of the MPs on FB that I wasn't already. Of those that are active on FB with GP or environmental things, a bunch of them haven't even turned on the Follow button. Shaking my head.

                Reply
                • Bearded Git …
                  15 April 2025 at 3:03 pm

                  One would hope the Greens are reading your comments and doing something about it.

                  Reply
                  • weka …
                    15 April 2025 at 4:08 pm

                    I doubt it ☺️ It's also possible those MPs don't want MP pages, which is fair enough, and the Greens might not want them to be posting party stuff from the personal pages, all things considered. I can see what I think is off, but I'm not the right person to give advice to them on what to do, the problem is whether they have the right people. I'm not the only one who criticises their comms.

                    Reply
            • Psycho Milt 3.1.1.2.1.2
              15 April 2025 at 8:45 pm

              Good point, I've never heard of some of them and although you can forgive people new to politics for not having found their feet yet, what's Celia Wade-Brown's excuse?

              As for Ben Doyle, I've heard of him alright, but not in a good way.

              Reply
  4. Res Publica 4
    15 April 2025 at 8:17 am

    Totally agree this is a sharp read. Always enjoy the sharpness of Harman's analysis.

    Peters has always had a knack for playing the long game, and the timing of this subtle distancing from Luxon feels classic Winnie. The "call me next time" jab is a masterclass in plausible deniability: it undermines Luxon without going nuclear, just enough to reinforce the image of Peters as the adult in the room.

    That said, I can’t help but wonder if this is just the usual pre-election positioning.

    Every morning an empty Crown limo pulls up to the Beehive and Luxon gets out, but the real operator is already five steps ahead, making sure his party can walk away clean if the coalition turns toxic.

    So we could interpret this as NZ First doing what it’s always done: hedging its bets, signalling to the base, and keeping the mystery alive.

    Less of a breach; more like insurance against the tide turning.

    Reply
    • SPC 4.1
      15 April 2025 at 8:34 am

      New Zealand has a stake in the comparative advantage trade world and the multi-lateral rules based order.

      If Peters would rather be in appeasement mode to the nation that is a threat to that, should he be our FM?

      And if he wants to be fired, is that because of the OIO changes (foreign investor changes coming)?

      Reply
      • Res Publica 4.1.1
        15 April 2025 at 9:33 am

        If Peters would rather be in appeasement mode to the nation that is a threat to that, should he be our FM?

        If I had my druthers, he wouldn’t even be in Parliament. But you’ve got to respect the man’s panache. And his unerring nose for political opportunity.

        He’s like a particularly noxious, invasive weed: always finds a crack in the pavement to grow through.

        It’s hard to say whether he’s working from a long-term plan or just improvising masterfully in the moment, but I’d argue he’d see getting fired as Foreign Minister as a net win.

        It would give him clear distance from a government that’s looking increasingly tenuous and unpopular: perfect positioning if the tide turns toward Labour. And let’s face it, he’s likely to be back in the kingmaker seat after the next election regardless.

        Play it right, and he gets to cast himself as the principled elder statesman: sighing, shaking his head, and lamenting the folly of youth.

        All while lining up his next move.

        Zero political cost. Maximum flexibility. Classic Winnie.

        Reply
        • Ad 4.1.1.1
          15 April 2025 at 9:53 am

          New Zealand's best politician by far is now 80.

          Reply
          • Incognito 4.1.1.1.1
            15 April 2025 at 10:05 am

            Whoop Whoop, NZ politics is in Dire Straits.

            Reply
          • Res Publica 4.1.1.1.2
            15 April 2025 at 10:11 am

            He reminds me a lot of Cohen the Barbarian from the Discworld novels. Some say he's outdated, but he’d probably just growl that he’s got decades of experience in not dying politically.

            He’s grumpy, cunning, and somehow always still there.

            You could almost imagine him squinting at a journalist and muttering, "I’ve outlasted more governments than you’ve had hot dinners."

            Reply
            • Ad 4.1.1.1.2.1
              15 April 2025 at 1:36 pm

              Sure, if Conan delivered like the milkman.

              Might want to check out all those Provincial Growth Fund projects.

              Reply
            • Shanreagh 4.1.1.1.2.2
              15 April 2025 at 11:15 pm

              You could almost imagine him squinting at a journalist and muttering, "I’ve outlasted more governments than you’ve had hot dinners."

              You've left off the best bit

              "I’ve outlasted more governments than you’ve had hot dinners, Sunshine

              Reply
        • Kay 4.1.1.2
          15 April 2025 at 10:45 am

          And I assume with his $400K salary, he's still happily claiming Super (he's entitled) and the heating allowance?

          Reply
        • Bearded Git 4.1.1.3
          15 April 2025 at 1:26 pm

          Like any good lawyer he is improvising on the spot.

          Reply
    • Bearded Git 4.2
      15 April 2025 at 5:39 pm

      Harman is way to the Right of course. Be careful of his motives.

      Reply
  5. Bearded Git 5
    15 April 2025 at 10:05 am

    In terms of the likelihood of an imminent election per the post, another indication is a post I have just seen near the Beehive in Wellington.

    It has an unflattering picture of Luxon with his fingers in his ears and the caption:

    "Shame on you for voting down the Treaty Principles Bill, Prime Minister. YOUR VOTERS WON'T FORGET".

    ACT also seem to be getting ready for an election.

    Reply
    • Res Publica 5.1
      15 April 2025 at 10:16 am

      Which is cool and all—but may end up being terrible political strategy. Because all it really does is make National’s messaging super simple.

      “You don’t want to bring back the filthy commies in Labour and their even crazier mates in the Greens. But you also don’t want to be beholden to the fringe lunatics in ACT and NZ First.

      So really, the only sensible, stable choice? National.”

      It’s tidy. It’s centrist. And it plays straight into their hands. Assuming Luxon has even an atom more political sense than he has hair. Which has yet to be proven.

      The man became National Party leader and (putatively) Prime Minister pretty much by default.

      Besides, it’s not like ACT has anywhere else to go if it wants to be part of a government.

      Reply
      • Bearded Git 5.1.1
        15 April 2025 at 10:44 am

        Agree with all of that….but as you say National getting back into government requires Luxon to have at least some political skills.

        He hasn't revealed any to date.

        And Hipkins will steal some Nats votes as he moves Labour to the Right.

        Reply
  6. Stephen D 6
    15 April 2025 at 10:59 am

    With the RSE education rewrite Winnie is playing Trumps DEI etc card. Anything that smacks of “woke” must be bad. I don’t believe for a minute he believes it.

    There is still are sector of our population that laps that sort of stuff up. Fortunately for the left, both ACT and NZ1st are targeting that voting bloc.

    Reply
  7. feijoa 7
    15 April 2025 at 12:02 pm

    Labour will never win unless they counter the right's successful division of the working/ lower middle class, as everyone looks for someone to blame.

    Brown vs white, boomers vs young, male vs female, bottomfeeders vs workers, etc.

    In the US and UK, the right use immigrants as the means of division. And so the working class fight amongst themselves, while the rich pour another martini.

    Labour must attack inequality, and seriously. If they don't do that, they won't succeed at anything.

    Reply
    • weka 7.1
      15 April 2025 at 12:09 pm

      Labour in the UK are in the process of cutting benefits 🙁 I really hope NZ Labour don't go down this regressive track.

      Reply
      • Descendant Of Smith 7.1.1
        15 April 2025 at 2:46 pm

        They removed including underage partners in NZS and didn't implement WEAG – they are no friends of the poor.

        Reply
  8. feijoa 8
    15 April 2025 at 12:05 pm

    Oh, and health.

    I think health is the key.

    The thought of their health system being broken may be what unites the working/middle class.

    Reply
  9. Stephen D 9
    15 April 2025 at 12:34 pm

    What will be interesting, is who Winnie will really attack. My guess is it’ll be Seymour and ACT. There’s no point in going after Luxon, Winnie knows he’ll collapse like a soufflé over any issue to stay in power.
    The question will be, how hard will he push Seymour before ACT walk away. Or is David in love with the baubles, as a much as Winnie is?

    Reply
    • Anne 9.1
      15 April 2025 at 8:08 pm

      … is David in love with the baubles, as a much as Winnie is?

      Of course he is. If a day goes by when he doesn't get near top billing on the TV news he has a tanty.

      Reply
      • Res Publica 9.1.1
        16 April 2025 at 7:11 am

        I don't know if David Seymour genuinely loves the baubles of office, or if he simply understands that in today’s attention economy, constant visibility is his best shot at staying politically relevant.

        It’d be laughable if it weren’t so effective at sucking all the oxygen out of our political discourse.

        Reply
  10. Belladonna 10
    16 April 2025 at 9:41 am

    Peters always has his eye on the long game.
    As witness 'going first' in his stint as Deputy PM. Which means that he finishes up, and is free to start campaigning with 18 months to go to the election, while Seymour is more constrained by his DPM role, in criticising the government.

    Peters is always alive to the possibility of positioning himself as the 'elder statesman' providing guidance to the children in the room (aka the younger politicians – which is just about everyone). NB: I think this is factually rubbish, but there is no denying that he's the past master of every political game there is. And he seems to manage it alongside his personal as the enfant terrible, who can raise controversial issues without fear of consequences (Doyle saga is just the most recent)

    I think there is zero chance that Peters will implode the coalition. He knows that the NZ public historically do not reward politicians who bring on an early election. Nor is Seymour likely to do so (what would he have to gain?)

    I think that we can expect to see both distancing themselves from Luxon – to move into campaign mode – over the next year. So long as they're 'agreeing to disagree' on things outside the confidence and supply elements – the coalition isn't at risk. On that topic, the budget is going to be interesting. What political plums have NZF and ACT got to wave in front of their supporters?

    Depending on how Luxon presents in all of this, he may look like someone torn between feuding partners; or like the effective manager who can get parties who disagree to work together.

    Reply

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