Climate Commission Hope Versus NLTP Reality

19 comments on “Climate Commission Hope Versus NLTP Reality ”

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1. Jenny how to get there 1

   19 April 2021 at 7:43 am

   "…..New Zealanders will happily slam their car doors and walk away, the minute they can."
   I agree.

   Yet,

   "….there’s near-zero sign that we are getting out of our cars any time soon as a percentage of trips taken."

   In the face of low uptake, the newly innaugerated Huia express train from Auckland to Papakura is dying on its feet, and looks likely to become an expensive white elephant.

   All around the world there is only one sure fire proven way to get the public out of their ICE vehicles en-mass.

   In municipalities and cities that have trialed it, the one strategy that has proved to be a runaway success, is the introduction of single payer fare free public transport.

   A great resource on how this can be done in Aotearoa, (and should be), is Fare Free NZ

   https://farefreenz.blogspot.com/p/moving-our-city-with-free-public.html

   We need to make a start.

   To keep it going and keep cars off the badly congested Southern corridor to Auckland, the Huia rail connection is the first obvious piece of failing public infrastructure that needs to trial waiving all fares for commuters.
   • lprent 1.1

     19 April 2021 at 9:24 am

     To keep it going and keep cars off the badly congested Southern corridor to Auckland, the Huia rail connection is the first obvious piece of failing public infrastructure that needs to trial waiving all fares for commuters.

     I had a look at the Te Huia. The adult fare price is $12.20 with a Bee card between Franklin and Papakura. Apparently takes about 98 minutes. Obviously heavily subsidised. Costs less than a taxi fare from home in Grey Lynn to Mt Eden when my bike is off the road.

     The first link that came up when I was looking for the fare was this.

     'Standing room only': Te Huia 'jam-packed' on first Saturday service, would-be passengers left behind

     The price doesn't look to me to be a problem. The basic problem is that that it is designed as a commuter train that runs in one direction. Two morning trains from Hamilton early in the morning, and two evening trains early in the evening. Takes at least 4 hours out of your day unless you live in Franklin and work in Papakura.

     Currently I don't know of any people who live in Hamilton and commute to South Auckland every morning. There are may be a few in Huntly. It is something that isn't feasible when driving a car.

     The people at Pokeno – the suburb with no facilities, useless roads and not even a supermarket, charmingly dumped by the old Franklin district and now in Waikato on the borders of Auckland leave really early at about 0530 to get to central Auckland before 0800 by car. They then leave either about 1530 or thye leave at 1830. Too much time out of the day.

     It will take time for commuter traffic to rise. The number of services to increase. And the number of stops in places like Pokeno for a true commuter system to arise. People have their existing houses and jobs, and they aren't going to shift in a week.

     That is why the project has been funded for 5 years. It is like the bike tracks. You have to build them first before people like me will start cycling to safely years later. Even public transport needs to have reasonable times to travel if you're use them.

     These days I won't take jobs where I can't cycle or get reasonable public transport to. In other words no jobs in no Albany – an hour each way by public transport if you're lucky and that is is you have stops right next to home and work. Nothing would convince me to do a daily commute to South Auckland. Out west is feasible – they is the bike track along the North Eastern.

     But I would consider going to Hamilton for longer trips by train. Working for a week in Hamilton out of a motel or hotel is preferable to doing the same thing in Singapore. I can carry my bike on a train, whereas it is barely feasible on the Intercity buses. You'd need a bike in Hamilton – the bus routes are even worse than when I was at university there 40 years ago.

     Otherwise I could use a car. Or simply not go – the latter is my current default.

     The key problem isn't price – it is having a viable transport route at all. Currently with our periodic bouts of the disease of National transport policies, we only have roads and cars. That needs to change.
     • Ad 1.1.1

       19 April 2021 at 11:24 am

       GreaterAuckland provides some suggestions on how the Hamilton-Papakura service could be improved here:

       https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/

       Given that diesel trains are no longer allowed into Britomart, Puhinui is about as far as this train could go. Also Britomart is tight as the upcoming service increase from CRL is going to use up pretty much every slot it has. Usefully Puhinui station has been recently upgraded, and there's now a electric bus servicing the link from there to the airport – if one were dedicated to catching a flight without a car. I sure hope that this hasn't been set up to fail once the novelty value wears off.
     • Jenny How to get there 1.1.2

       19 April 2021 at 7:23 pm

       "The people at Pokeno – the suburb with no facilities, useless roads and not even a supermarket."

       Pokeno has a supermarket.

       Countdown Pokeno – Google Maps

       But the point is made.
       What Pokeno really needs is a train station. (and a commuter train to stop there).

       I do not know the number of commuters that leave this burgeoning satellite 'burb every morning, but witnessing the rush hour traffic jam morning and night between Bombay and Manukau it must be quite a few.

       Would a Huia train stop be enough to get Pokeno commuters out of their cars?

       Probably not.

       The reason being the Huia commuter rail service stops not far past Pokeno at Papakura. Bringing the Huia commuter train as far as Puhinui as suggested by Ad might be a bit more of an incentive. But what is really needed is a totally electrified commuter rail service all the way into the inner city. If Britomart is getting too congested, (as also noted by Ad). Maybe the closed train station on Beach Road could be re-repurposed.

       What's the alternative?

       Spending many more $billions adding even more lanes to the Southern motorway?

       As for fare free. I can understand that for people of means this is not an issue, but for people of lesser means squeezed out of the Auckland housing market, a single payer commuter train service from Kirikiriroa to their factory jobs in South (and even West), Auckland might be very attractive indeed.
       • lprent 1.1.2.1

         20 April 2021 at 11:36 am

         Yep they now have a Countdown, it opened 9th Feb 2021.

         Pōkeno had a population of 2,517 at the 2018 New Zealand census, an increase of 1,917 people (319.5%) since the 2013 census, and an increase of 1,947 people (341.6%) since the 2006 census.

         Estimate at June 2020 was estimated at 3320.

         "Pokeno's resilience pays off as population set to triple in coming decades" – article in stuff in 2018

         "According to the Waikato District Council, Pokeno had a population of around 2000 people in 2013. That number is set to increase to 7000 within the next 10 years."

         As for fare free. I can understand that for people of means this is not an issue, but for people of lesser means squeezed out of the Auckland housing market, a single payer commuter train service from Kirikiriroa to their factory jobs in South (and even West), Auckland might be very attractive indeed.

         The main problem is that this is 98 minutes from Kirikiriroa (aka Hamilton) to Papakura for 100+ kms. That doesn't make it particularly attractive as a commuter line.

         For someone using it to work, then it is just another cost to be factored in. The minimum wage is $20 per hour. $24.40 return seems like a bargain for at least 200km. About $125 for a working week.

         But someone requiring really low costs, then they should probably look at Huntly. Much lower house cost or rent, and a lower fare.
2. satty 2

   19 April 2021 at 8:09 am

   Another issue when looking into the EV charging infrastructure is the percentage of cars not parked in a garage at home, which is the case in many suburbs in bigger NZ cities. The reason is either there’s no garage with the home, the garage is old and too small for the large cars NZers buy nowadays or they are simply used for “collecting lots of shit” never to be used again.

   In my street with lots of on-street parking and very few places with garages the Wellington council replaced / resurfaced all the footpaths recently. They didn’t install a single recharge station nor any cables for future use. Can’t see how anyone in the neighbourhood would ever consider an EV.
   • RedBaronCV 2.1

     19 April 2021 at 12:30 pm

     Some of the non plug in hybrids (Toyota has some under $30K) plus some provision for street level or outside garage secure plug in points (run off solar?) or "coin operated" for longer charging times based on ordinary electricity output not fast charging as those are much more expensive infrastructure to set up look like the way forward where there is no off street parking. I'm busy converting the neighbours and it doesn't take much talking. All the councils need to do is set some infrastructure rules around the provision of them.
     • lprent 2.1.1

       19 April 2021 at 4:36 pm

       There are other issues around EV charging.

       For instance I'm in a 1998 apartment block in Auckland CBD outskirts, We have a dual garage with two car parks per each of our 60 apartments. Probably about 80 cars at any one time.

       It would seem like a prime candidate to put a multiple EV charge points in – right?

       But there aren't any power plugs in the garage. The carparks are owned by each apartment under strata law. There isn't room for additional carparks in the communal carpark areas. We do have some communal power for common lights and garage doors. But apartment power is paid by apartment apartment tenants or owner-occupiers.

       That means we'd have to get at a bare minimum a majority vote of all apartments to even consider installing EV power as it would effectively require communal funds to run the power out across the communal power trays. There are sure to be people without a car let alone a EV who wouldn't be interested in paying for it. Landlords won't see the point unless it gets them a better return on their investment.

       And there aren't (as far as I am aware) a single EV or PHEV in the building yet. I am pretty sure that I have the only e-bike. I carry the battery for that upstairs to charge that, or I charge it at work.

       There are a lot of issues ahead for widespread adoption of EVs. Charging points is one of them.

       Another is cost and the increased tendency for many people to not commute. We brought a replacement car last year. Our 1993 Toyota Corona with close to 300k found a pole while backing and failed a WoF. The 1998 Toyota Caldina with 250k had a abrupt oil leak and a seized engine (turned out the oil sensor was a bit buggered).

       We looked at EVs, PHEV, and hybrids. But for our average annual driving of less than 10k, the cost-benefit simply didn't make sense – all electric vehicles are too expensive apart from e-bikes. The car is there to transport shopping and to do longer trips to see family. We either work from home or use a ebike or scooter to commute.

       Brought a 2005 Caldina with 120k for $4k from a relative. Spent some money on the paint job. Takes us 6-7 weeks on average to empty the tank. Costs more in 3rd party insurance, maintenance. WoF, and registration than it does in petrol. It will last us a while.
3. Foreign Waka 3

   19 April 2021 at 8:49 am

   The infrastructure in NZ does not allow for public transport in an efficient manner. The routes are known where the traffic flows but any bus, train stops some 3km from your home if they even come "near". Try this with bags of groceries in a hauling southerly. Quite often, just when it is bucketing down and one might start on an early shift, the news come through that the trains are cancelled but no one knows whether buses are going. No wonder no one is interested in this unreliable patchwork of what they call public transport.

   The problem as I see it is the sprawl of houses and the per capita route cost. Not to mention the roads that are in poor state and so narrow that the current buses have difficulties manoeuvring. A least in my neighborhood.

   Many major cities as well as countries are served by a network that was – low and behold such surprise! – thought through and most of the time one does not need a car at all. I have relatives living in a major city, travelling the world and never owed a car. Absolutely no need if a city is being designed for people an how they are going to move.

   The poor planning is visible by allowing push bikes on motorways and major traffic routes (!).

   There needs to be a regional transport plan put together with some serious thought how any form of train and bus route will connect coherently. No interference from the city councils, we have seen what they do with the waste water pipes, not to mention to have diesel buses introduced – good lord have mercy – we don't need a repeat.
4. roy cartland 4

   19 April 2021 at 10:49 am

   Newsroom has a good case for reopening the Overnight Rail line WLG-AKL, with some good graphs of the inefficiency of short-haul flights:

   The distance, 682 km, is ideal for a sleeper service, as suggested by the New York Times in an article on the rebound of Europe’s night trains (paywalled).

   Fifty-seven percent of New Zealand’s population lives along the route. (42% in Auckland and Wellington, 15% in between.) It also spans five universities, home to many thousands of frequent flyers: for example, Massey University’s 3000-plus staff flew an average of 18,000 km each in 2019…

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/climate-emergency/a-night-train-to-break-air-travel-addiction
   • Ad 4.1

     19 April 2021 at 11:30 am

     This is exactly what I am talking about.

     The media focus on the least useful or timely customer proposal and ignore the far more likely one: completing the existing State Highways to Tauranga and Whangarei would eliminate the need for flights to Tauranga, Hamilton, Whangarei and Taupo (other than in occasional non-Auckland flights). Rail wouldn't.

     Instead they focus on a 9-hour train service which has been long since discredited in the minds of the consumer, and put that in the same conversation as a European train network. We are never going to have a comparable rail system to Europe, or China, or Taiwan, or Britain.

     The media who talk about rail prefer to talk about something other than the mode that has a 50-year headstart on rail and will do so for the foreseeable future. We need to reconcile our ideology with the reality of what is there.
     • lprent 4.1.1

       19 April 2021 at 4:51 pm

       I don't think that many people do fly to Tauranga, Hamilton, Whangarei and Taupo now. I know that I don't.

       I tried doing a couple of flights to Rotorua a few years ago. There was a major disincentive in that there it took under three hours to get to Rotorua by car, and about the same by plane once you added the time to get to and from the airports, costs of bus or taxi or parking. Not to mention that I missed a non-refundable flight.

       Flying to local destinations is just a pain from Auckland. But the problem is that it is pointless doing the roads as well. All that every improvement since the 1970s has done has been to move the congestion further along the state highways. Make the roads easier and they just fill up with what appears to be pointless travel.

       If you look at SH2 from Auckland for instance, my bet is that most of the increase of trips along there are simply people going to and from holiday homes on the coast. Why would I want to pay for that?

       The NZTA should just install a tolls along many of the state highways and make them user pays based on actual usage. I’m pretty sure that will relieve congestion and make the roads better for those who need to use them. NZ population isn’t exactly large enough to require the congestion we currently see.
       • greywarshark 4.1.1.1

         19 April 2021 at 5:06 pm

         Tolls I think that is the idea. Christchurch has gone towards working on travellers a bit with a special lane for those with two or more in car. Some innovations are needed to get us off the roads.
       • Ad 4.1.1.2

         19 April 2021 at 5:07 pm

         Since I'm working in Palmerston North on a wind farm at the moment, I hang a bit at the regional terminal and those flights still seem reasonably popular during the week. I'm sure there's be hell to pay as per Shane Jones last term giving AirNZ grief if there were unjustified regional flight cancellations.

         I'm hoping to see some strong moves in the Climate Commission responses that would make it worth companies accruing and internally costing the carbon they expend by RUC. Still plenty the government could do across its own Departments in this area as well.
         • lprent 4.1.1.2.1

           22 April 2021 at 2:26 pm

           Talking Palmerston North is like comparing pears with oranges…

           I was talking about the nearly half of the North Island population who live in Auckland, and who flood the roads to Tauranga, Hamilton, Whangarei, and even Taupo.

           Rational Aucklanders would kill to have the kind of rail transport that the Wellington Region does. I could get a regularly scheduled train from Wellington almost all of the way to Otaki on Xmas eve. The only reason I couldn’t bet one to Otaki itself was because that was a commuter service that didn’t suit my flights from Auckland.

           Flying Palmerston North to Tauranga, Hamilton, Whangarei is reasonable from Palmerston North. You're looking at 5+ hour drives. That kind of time makes it worthwhile to go by plane. It is like me flying to Wellington from Auckland (~7 hours by car vs 2.5 hours (counting drive and park)).

           Palmerston North to Taupo? Maybe – from memory it is about 3 hours (google maps says 3h 11m). You don't have the drive and park issues that you do in Auckland. So probably 1.5-2 hours.

           But basically the problem up this end is that Auckland is about 1.6 million population out of a North Island population 3.7 million in the North Island.

           Almost all of the driving on state highways up here is short haul – within a 3 hour drive of Auckland. Not to mention that Hamilton, Tauranga, Whangarei and even Rotorua are considerable population towns in their own right – and the primary destination of most of the upper north island traffic.

           Rather than putting more roads in to simply be filled up by trucks and cars, we'd be better off doing the basic straightening and safety issues, and concentrating on putting in double track electric trains. Leave the roads to people and trucks going to the low density population areas.

           It'd be way way cheaper than putting in more motorways, and much more economic as well.
5. RedBaronCV 5

   19 April 2021 at 12:42 pm

   While cycling is valuable I do think we have to be careful not to overcook or indulge in pious hopes about a means of transport that cannot be useful to all. As it stands it looks like fair weather transport for a group that is largely male with discretionary time on their hands.

   Christchurch is cycling's most terrain friendly city and I saw somewhere that it is looking at spending $341m of tax and ratepayer money on cycleways for about 13,000 cyclists. Even if this went to 30,000 cyclists 10% of the population of the city it is still very expensive on a per head basis. And $341 million would buy a lot of housing and health care.
   • greywarshark 5.1

     19 April 2021 at 5:12 pm

     Here is a really interesting chap talking from his home in Copenhagen.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018792010/calling-home-kane-harnett-mutu-in-copenhagen

     Jim Mora asks him about the cycling that is so popular there. He says that legally pedestrians have right of way but it is hard to assert that with cycles flashing by up to 40 kmh. This guy is just so interesting – worth a listen. I think the cycling part comes nearer the end.
6. RedBaronCV 6

   19 April 2021 at 12:51 pm

   I think the most valuable thing we could do is to keep the population stable not keep increasing it. As far as actual transport goes free or largely free public transport in densely populated areas plus facilitating hybrid and electric car purchases. For individuals and companies there are real running cost gains for these vehicles particularly if they can avoid fast charging . Putting in an expensive fast charge network is likely to be overtaken by events as newer batteries appear that have much greater range.
   • Pat 6.1

     19 April 2021 at 7:40 pm

     How about less travel?

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