Daily review 13/10/2022
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5:30 pm, October 13th, 2022 - 31 comments
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Daily review is also your post.
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Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Ka mihi ki te mana whenua ko Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei. Kia ora and good morning everyone. Thank you Fran and Simon for inviting me here today, and importantly your leadership of this forum over several years now. I want to acknowledge David Gehrenbeck, Deputy ...2 days ago
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- District Court Judge appointed
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The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
All pretence has been dropped…they are shitting themselves…NZ (politicians and business) aiming to become a country of 10 Aucklands.
"A new "simplified" system for skilled migrant visas – with no cap on numbers – will make it fairer and more transparent, Immigration Minister Michael Wood says."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/476523/visa-changes-skilled-migrant-parent-visa-categories-to-restart-next-month
The jobs will not be there as the world moves to recession,so we will be left with substantive risks to the social welfare,housing and health,at the cost of lower wages for non productive service industries.
At a time of increasing interest rates (the markets have priced increases in 10 year government stock of 7% this week alone) higher energy prices,higher rates bills,higher insurance bills (the latter due to Liz Truss destabalising 1 trillion pounds of reinsurance and pensions)
Yes, it will end up being a liability but that hasnt stopped them …they are bereft of any other ideas and cannot countenance zero/negative growth.
All their big ideas came out of the Uk and Europe,now look.
Curious thing…UK currency in doldrums (especially since mini budget) …NZD GBP cross rate virtually unchanged from prior.
Not that larger trade,more used on cross trade of NZ/AUS on swaps to get NZ interest rate margin over OZ,then into OZ.
Agree trade negligible which begs the question why we appear in lockstep?…what they gain on interest they will lose on NZD AUD cross (which is declining)
Kiwi has appreciated against the Aus,Couple of US FX traders suggested shorting Aus against Kiwi to work the margin differential in interest rates.
only appreciated last few days….trend is decline.
Since OCR review Aus priced at .8746,trading now at .8925 very dynamic at moment
So I guess they imagine the housing crisis is over.
And they have abandoned climate goals.
Not to speak of mass wage suppression.
How in the name of all Gods and little fishes do we consistently get such plonkers in Parliament?
If the system changes as in the proposal on MBIE's website, it will be quite hard to get residence – will need NZ experience in most cases along with a degree or registration.
That is not the stated intention (from the Minister) nor is it the past record of this administration.
https://figure.nz/chart/a3PV9tKfbfVBCRwv
Net migration under this administration is tiny due to Covid so it's hard to ascribe anything to that recently. The previous administration had slightly conflicting views with itself in that NZ First and Labour had different figures of acceptable net migration, but both wanted less than National and both campaigned on it to some extent in 2017. Whatever happens, Labour doesn't want volumes of net migration to exceed NZ's 'absorptive capacity' (a phrase from the Productivity Commission).
As someone who used to process visa applications for a job, the direction of travel under Labour has been for tougher settings than under National, and even National tightened things a bit at the end of their 9 years in August 2017. This proposal would both simplify the category (fewer ways to earn points) and increase the threshold to be met relative to previous iterations. Maybe that will have no impact on volumes, but that's unlikely.
Just wondering how’s it going for all you Joe Biden supporters out there?
Can’t wait for when things to go nuclear I suspect
“There’s no more faith in thee than in a stewed prune.” (replace thee for Joe)
Henry IV Part 1 (Act 3, Scene 3)
They're probably wondering when the Donald Trump supporters are going to accept that Trump didn't win in 2020.
They're probably wondering if anything will happen in legal terms of the typically bizarre Trump behaviour on so many levels in taking stuff he wasn't entitled to.
They won't be saving their money and reaching in their pockets to assist Trump with the $NZ446 million he's being sued for by New York. (If you want the address of where you can send money I can let you have it.)
Economic Domino's underway as R word mentioned in UK data,
https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1580078331265175552?cxt=HHwWgMDSxdy3yO0rAAAA
Well, that’s fascinating: DR from yesterday reappeared as DR today in a Groundhog Day kinda way 🙂
Any projections for how much dumbass vote in 2023 goes in total to Democracy NZ, Vision NZ, NZ Outdoors and Freedom Party, and One Party? 3%
And what is their likely total draw of vote from Labour or National, as distinct from the minority parties?
A multi-party alliance (like the 1990s Alliance) could get 5%, probably with Winston/NZF at the head. But that won't be happening, so it will only be wasted vote.
From Labour's inflated high of 2020, some votes. From "core Labour", very few. From National (because "Luxon's wishy-washy"), a lot.
The nightmare for the Right is the Maori Party winning electorates (which they will) and getting 3 or 4 MPs while the fruit loop fringe get nothing, despite more party votes.
National didn't want to lower the threshold, so we'll have a good laugh.
Oh dear, how sad, never mind!
https://twitter.com/richsignorelli/status/1580288940287807489
Former U.S. Attorney Harry Litman predicted InfoWars founder Alex Jones will be “basically broke” for the rest of his days thanks to a shocking verdict awarding nearly $1 billion to families of Sandy Hook families, who sued Jones for defamation.
[…]
While Jones can claim he doesn’t have the money and guilty defendants often “squirm out” of financial verdicts, Litman said families can target Jones’ assets and make him “basically broke.”
“Even if he’s able to bob and weave some, I just don’t see how he winds up anything but basically broke now for the rest of his life,” he said.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/former-us-attorney-on-msnbc-says-alex-jones-verdict-is-permanent-financial-ruin-broke-now-for-the-rest-of-his-life/
Poll.
https://twitter.com/120Aotearoa/status/1580427806399377408?cxt=HHwWgMCtme2t5-4rAAAA
If National can't pick up the easy default votes now, they aren't going to be picking up even more votes in the election campaign, when they actually have to say something and defend it.
+100
Anyone's game on those numbers
Agreed ad ..lab/gr/MP have 46.2 and given their control of the purse strings and Luxon's lack of political talent the Left may prevail.
This may have been commented on elsewhere, but WOW, and WTF?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-government/130156088/leaked-auckland-council-document-reveals-first-insight-into-mayor-wayne-browns-inner-circle
Matthew Hooten! Ben Thomas!
Good Luck, Auckland.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-government/130157107/guyton-to-challenge-for-environment-southland-chairman-saying-leadership-roles-shouldnt-be-stacked-with-farmers
Best of luck Robert. It is areas like Southland that really need changed direction and often are the last to realise how much they, and all their citizens would benefit by new ideas and directions.
Also how simple and achievable (and exciting too) big, bold aims are once you you've nailed them into a policy.
When I started work in a land related govt department in the mumble 70s Southland used to be looked on with admiration as country that could sustain itself with all grass wintering with a bit of supplementary….
My bosses from those days would be turning in their graves to see the mud farming, all that precious grass covering and the soil underneath hastening its way to the ocean.
Go Robert! ✊
Robert, you need to be chair, as your twin council just had a mayor/mare of a time.
good luck
Make sure Jacinda does not endorse you. Was the kiss of death for both Efeso and Eagle.