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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, February 15th, 2023 - 40 comments
Categories: Daily review -
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Phew, I'm so relieved!
On the news tonight, Luxon reiterated Natz tax adjustment policies (code for tax cuts to the rich).
At a time when the government will need untold millions to remedy the devastation of climate change, bottom feeders $2 a week tax cuts is safe!
[deleted]
[Don’t ignore the Mod notes for you (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-11-02-2023/#comment-1934761) – Incognito]
Mod note
Faux News in 280 characters.
https://twitter.com/duty2warn/status/1625111895005954048
But the myth of shadowbanning does serve a purpose on the right: It's a pretext to pressure social media companies to favor right-wing content, and even to go so far as to push it into the feeds of people who have not sought it out. When Musk fired an engineer, it was about more than punishing an employee for telling him the truth. It sent a signal to the rest of the staff: find some way to elevate Musk's tweets, and right-wing content in general, far beyond organic traffic.
[…]
In other words, they're being told to tweak the algorithm so that a bunch of right-wing trolls get regularly plugged into the feeds of people who don't follow them. You may have carefully cultivated your follow list to avoid being served fascistic propaganda on Twitter, but too bad. Through pages like "for you" on Twitter, expect to see these people anyway. (Indeed, Musk's tweets were served to me on my "for you" page today, even though I do not follow Musk or retweet him ever.)
https://www.salon.com/2023/02/14/elon-musks-latest-twitter-tantrum-is-an-attempt-to-amplify-propaganda/
In case you’d missed it, having a sexual orientation is transphobic, exclusionary and patriarchal. Yes heterosexual men, this applies to you too. If you don’t like dick you’re a transphobe. It’s mostly lesbians bearing the brunt of this, and increasingly gay men (that’s homophobia btw), but the rhetoric is increasing and spreading.
https://twitter.com/australianwoma1/status/1625737783376744449
As if sexual attraction is an intellectual choice.
It's not , it's irrational and powerful and makes fools of us all.
100% correct
the people making the argument that sex preference is wrong are either bisexual, or very disconnected from their bodies.
Cognitive dissonance – demanding the right to decide for themselves and then denying the same right to others.
Well that was a biggie.
edit:
Wed Feb 15 2023 7:38 PM
Magnitude: 6.0
Depth: 76 km
50 km north-west of Paraparaumu
https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/2023p122368
Pretty solid here in Blenheim. It was centred 50km NW of Parparumu. Loud and shaky!
does someone want to fact check this for NZ?
https://twitter.com/natalie_hormann/status/1625753083228868608
50km deep and >250km from the very wet rain event. Nah.
A groundbreaking study led by University of Miami (UM) scientist Shimon Wdowinski shows that earthquakes, including the recent 2010 temblors in Haiti and Taiwan, may be triggered by tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), according to a presentation of the findings at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco.
"Very wet rain events are the trigger," said Wdowinski, associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics at the UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. "The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults."
Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analyzed data from quakes magnitude-6 and above in Taiwan and Haiti and found a strong temporal relationship between the two natural hazards, where large earthquakes occurred within four years after a very wet tropical cyclone season.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111208121016.htm
cheers.
Pre social media times, I liked to have a wee wind up with folk opining that fracking contributed to an increase in earthquakes and their severity.
British Geological Survey seismologists have made the link. Hardly surprising given the pressures and volumes of groundwater displaced.
http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/research/BlackpoolEarthquakes.html
Scary election meddling via social media. Israeli disinformation merchants for hire.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/revealed-disinformation-team-jorge-claim-meddling-elections-tal-hanan
Cameron Slater had a fascination with Israeli IT people a few years ago. ISR he made a trip over there for some reason.
He was paid. He's a Seventh Day Adventist, too, so odds are he's a full-blown end times loon.
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/08/20/cameron-slater-zionist-and-political-pundit/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/john-drinnan-slater-has-a-friend-in-israel/FQL3HPD354EVLZIEDX4BK36GLQ/
Guardian clip on investigation
Little more than twelve months ago PM Marin said it was "very unlikely" that Finland would apply for a NATO membership during her current term of office.
Heck of a job, Poots.
https://twitter.com/AnnwieAnna/status/1625479269412487170
"An evening with Bob Woodward". He might be 80 years of age now but he is as sharp as ever. Gripping stuff:
His views on the current world scene and in particular the Ukraine war is imo right on target.
Thanks for that anne personally i think he's badly informed on Ukraine but he's an interesting guy who can tell a story well and at least he knew and said that the steel dossier was garbage !
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/ukraine-children-sent-russia-re-education-camps
The fate of some of those Ukraine refugees kindly taken in by Russia. Of these, some have been forcibly adopted out.
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1625639695119175680
Free Balloon Day?
There is a queue. Germans in Enzed 1940's, Tame Iti's Te Urewera warrior uprising.
At Stuff, Luke Malpass reminds us that Minister McAnulty is capable and Sharma is … nothing.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131235433/cyclone-gabrielle-with-taciturn-authenticity-kieran-mcanulty-makes-his-mark
All those who went on (and on) about the Gaurav Sharma farce and demanded an "investigation" – including a few on here – maybe have a little reflection. What a waste of time that was, and what hilariously bad judgement by the headless chicken commentators.
sorting out the men from the boys atm.
https://twitter.com/wekatweets/status/1625779099473178625
I can't do graphics but it is my home town. Hopefully this will be a bit of a pen picture.
Wairoa is in northern HB and is geographically isolated from the nearest large towns/cities Gisborne and Napier and Rotorua .
The roads in are windy and from the Napier end go through several gorges. The area where the person was killed in a landslide, Putorino, is close to another area where a bridge is washed out over the Waikare river. This means that Wairoa id isolated from the south. There are three other roads into Wairoa.
1 Highway 35 Wairoa Rotorua via Lake Waikaremaona/Urewera NP. Mostly gravel and winding all the way. On the way up to lake Waikaremoan is Tuai and this is a hydro power generating site. I am not sure what the status of this site now but I think I read that earlier today 15/2 they had not yet been able to check on the site
2 Wairoa to Gisborne via Tiniroto. This turns off SH35 at a place called Frasertown. It then goes up hill & down dale to Gisborne. It comes out on the flats around Gisborne and that are flooded. This is on unstable country and it is likely that there will be slips as well. There will be floods on the way out from Wairoa to Frasertown.
Having got to Gisborne, what then? It is isolated as well.
3 Wairoa to Gisborne via Morere. This is a better road than the Tiniroto road but also goes through unstable land. It may have slips.
And the same question
Having got to Gisborne, what then? It is isolated as well.
Some other points
During the 1931 earthquake, Wairoa was isolated. Brave people walked & rode along the beaches and trekked inland where the beach was impassable to get to Napier. Supplies to Napier etc were brought in by a RN Navy ship HMS Veronica.
Wairoa River can be navigated usually as far as the town if the bar allows. This bar is fought over by two taniwha and moves up and down the foreshore area. It has a treacherous bar. Boats the size of the Fisheries Protection ships/launches used to be able to get access. But a southerly or Sou-easterly will make to large waves, backed up lagoon area behind the bar and possibly danger from a backed up bar entrance.
I am not sure about the state of the headwaters of the river s that join into the Wairoa river. Huge logs can come down. The bridge has washed away several times, the last time in Cyclone Bola.
I believe the winds/rain came from the SE, among other places. This area of weather is known as bad. When we lived there my dad had storm shutters that he put up when southerlies were expected and especially when there were SE-ers.
The flats in Wairoa are subject to flooding from short streams that come down from the hills, as well as the river. On our property it was not unusual to have the lower flats of ours and others up the same short valley flooded, often for months over winter. They have done soilcon work. The weather tends to come in bombs, waters rise very quickly and draining can take a while.
The hospital is on a low hill and has hopefully not been affected by flooding. I think there is a helipad there as this is a staging hospital. There is an aerodrome across the bridge to the north and this used to be able to land Cessnas and helicopters. It is in a flood prone area but may not be. Rail can get from Napier to Wairoa, but may not be able to now. The line was not used but usable. From Wairoa north my recollection is that it is not used and is unusable due to slips. The info re rail may be out of date.
The surrounding hills are very erosion prone.
There are two Civil Defence shelters on the south side of the bridge, that i know of and possibly the schools and usually marae on the north side of the bridge would be used but I read that these are flooded.
When I lived there everyone was conscious of isolation and the need to help each other. There are farms that still have horses and there are people that still know where these safer (old) bridle tracks might be to go cross country. Of course 4WD and farm bikes may come into their own in going cross country if they can access fuel.
I have school friends and some cousins in Gisborne, Wairoa and Central HB, all areas affected.
It grieves me.
ETA
Roads
‘Flooding
Due to severe weather conditions, State Highway 2 between Napier and Gisborne is now closed.
Scheduled time:
Start: 13 Feb 2023 5:11pm
Detour route: No detour available, delay your journey if possible.
Update received: 15 Feb 2023 4:45pm
Expected resolution: Until further notice’
https://www.journeys.nzta.govt.nz/traffic/roadclosures/415351
Thank you! I will come back to this later when I have more time. Incredibly hard fir those there and those still waiting to hear from family and friends.
An off the wall comment.
I mentioned the road from napier to Wairoa going through a couple of gorges.
Up until the Prebble/Douglas debacle when rail lines were shut and then NZ Rail sold, (aka 'shambles') there was a functioning railway from Napier through to Wairoa. This avoided the gorges with several large viaducts and through being able to avoid areas such as the gorges and places such as the 'Devil's Elbow'. I am wondering if this should be the dirst priority to get land based links to Wairoa.
The rail was well engineered and is able to take masses of freight, as Railways are. Then my view is that it could be the main form of transport south.
Freight and people and cars could be loaded on at Wairoa and leave at Napier or wherever they want to go south. This takes between 1-2 hours and is the same length of time that many commute daily.
The concern I have is at the Napier end where the rail on the flats will be/is overwhelmed at Eskdale and Tangoio. Engineering works will be needed to skirt these areas.
For Wairoa I think that perhaps people should be encouraged to retreat from the low lying areas especially those houses built on the banks of the river itself. The main street should be turnnd away from facing onto the river.
Then we have forestry slash. Forestry or tree planting is good as a soil conservation measure. Many of the areas that were subsequently sold have been logged. The pruning and other routines were allocated, by sale of the timber crops to (mainly) overseas interests whose forestry husbandry practices were a severe blow to the Wairoa economy. Pruners are flown in and out from from all parts of NZ and the locals put out of work.
In my first post I mentioned the road, Wairoa to Rotorua as being SH 35. It is SH 38. They are preparing it to be used as Wairoa's only road access.
Here is a link to some stuff photos
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300808853/cyclone-gabrielle-inside-wairoa-the-most-isolated-town
Just looking at the railway suggestion I had earlier on.
https://www.kiwirail.co.nz/our-network/our-regions/napier-to-wairoa/
If this rail system has a better chance of 'staying alive' than the current road system from Napier to Wairoa then I think we should be looking at feasibility.
The current road has blown out at the Devil's Elbow
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-gabrielle-truck-driver-rescued-from-devils-elbow-on-state-highway-2/AHODL5YDDFFZZK3PNWM4FLS4CE/
Over the years I have been traveling this road it has been impassable here many many times.
The definition of insanity seems apt here
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.'
The car commute by rail is used is several places in Europe eg Switzerland.
Do you have any idea whether this line has remained useable during/after the floods?
No I don't but it would be not going anywhere close to Napier as it is flooded close to Napier. (Esk valley)
I imagine that people will be inspecting the rail line as we speak.
I am not sure where the rail terminates in Wairoa now but if it is the same area as previously then this may be flooded. It was close to the roads to one of the marae that has been flooded. Once the flooding recedes they will inspect.
I am not envisaging the rail being used now to bring flood relief. Though if it can it should.
What I am thinking is that when the hard questions are asked, and hard sensible questions should be asked, an answer might be to flag away the road access wholly or in parts.
It could work also if from Putorino/Waikare south could be railed.
The Devil's Elbow. Matahourua Gorge, Waikare are well known troublesome to cars spots.
A rail viaduct goes above the Matahourua Gorge.
The road generally does not track the road super closely.
https://www.kiwirail.co.nz/our-network/our-regions/napier-to-wairoa/
https://www.engineeringnz.org/programmes/heritage/heritage-records/napier-gisborne-railway/
really good photos.
Thanks for your descriptions and political analysis.
Here's the map for a view of the river.
https://www.google.com/maps/@-39.047089,177.4205262,7231m/data=!3m1!1e3
https://twitter.com/RobbieNicol/status/1625665204087574528
Tax excess profits.
That Andrew Little gets around.
/
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1618632896201342978
Outside China, covid weighs less on people’s minds these days. Yet health-care systems in the rich world are closer to collapse than at any point since the disease started to spread. Unlike for unemployment or gdp, there are few comparable, up-to-date figures on health care across countries. So The Economist has trawled statistics produced by countries, regions and even individual hospitals to paint a picture of what is going on. The results suggest patients, doctors and nurses did not escape the worst effects of the pandemic. Instead, the effects seem to have been delayed.
https://archive.li/kpcy9