Dr Shane is in trouble
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- Date published:
11:51 am, October 18th, 2020 - 27 comments
Categories: election 2020, national, nick smith -
Tags: shane reti
I don’t think the bad news is over for National. I will go out on two limbs here and predict that they will lose Whangarei and they will also lose entitlement to a seat. Maureen Pugh’s career will be over. And Nick Smith will also be gone. He should have campaigned harder for the party vote.
Reti will be back but via the list.
Why do I say this?
Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes.
Special votes tend to break left. Younger people and poorer people tend to enroll later or need special votes because they move around more frequently.
Last election Reti’s share of the electorate vote faded slightly from 46.8% to 45.2% once special votes were counted. The Labour candidate’s share went up from 18.4% to 18.8%. A similar movement this time will cause Reti’s lead to evaporate.
Similarly with the party vote the tendency is for Labour’s share to improve and National’s to go down. Last time Labour’s went up from 35.8% to 36.9% and National’s went down from 46% to 44.4%.
I have made a few guesses and put the figure through the Electoral Commission formula and the result would be that National loses a seat.
I might be wrong. But I suspect there is even more misery on the way for the National Party.
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- Release: National Party urged to support modern slavery legislation
Labour is urging the Prime Minister to walk the talk and support legislation combating modern slavery. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour has lost confidence in the Speaker
The Speaker of the New Zealand Parliament made an unprecedented decision on the government amendment to the Fast Track Approvals Bill last night. ...2 weeks ago
- One year on, still no progress on new ferries
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- Release: Nicola Willis’ smaller ferries will cost more
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- Bill to sanction unlawful occupation of Palestine
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- Release: Labour fully supports greyhound racing ban
The Government has done the right thing in moving to ban greyhound racing. ...2 weeks ago
- Greyhound racing industry ban marks new era for animal welfare
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- Rangatahi voices must be centred in Government’s Relationship and Sexuality Education refresh
In response to a new report from ERO, the Government has acknowledged the urgent need for consistency across the curriculum for Relationship and Sexuality Education (RSE) in schools. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt introduces archaic anti-worker legislation
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- Winston Peters – Kinleith Mill Speech
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- Internationally-trained doctors jump at chance to boost health workforce
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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...2 days ago
- New intelligence oversight appointments
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- New housing developments able to progress more quickly
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- Actions to speed up air travel delivering results
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- Ending contracted emergency housing in Rotorua
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...2 days ago
- Vocational education and training decisions support return to regions
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- Reducing the environmental impact of synthetic refrigerants
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- Ngāruawāhia section of Waikato Expressway back to 4 lanes for Christmas
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- Fire and Emergency New Zealand final levy rates confirmed
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- More AML relief on the way for Kiwi businesses
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- Wide ranging legislation to make justice system more efficient
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- Diverse skills in community trust appointments
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- Torture redress for survivors of the Lake Alice Unit
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- A busy year in the House
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- Consultation opens on working with engineered stone
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- Greater reporting on Treaty settlement commitments
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- New appointments to the Charities Registration Board
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- Building consent processing times improve
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- Faster access to support through Innovation Fund
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- New Zealand to assist Vanuatu on earthquake response
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- Government takes steps to reduce card fees for Kiwis
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- Review recommends ECE regulation shakeup
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- Offshore Renewable Energy Bill passes first reading
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- Local Government (Water Services) Bill passes first reading
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- Gene Technology Bill passes first reading
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Whangarei tells a story repeated across NZ. In 2017 Reti won this seat by 11,000 votes and National won the party vote there handsomely. This time the Whangarei party vote is 46% Labour to 27% Nat (prelim results)
By my calculations Smith is safe by at least 2 seats on the list….not that I expect him to take it up going by his comment this morning…but Reti does indeed look to be gone on specials
Not sure about those calculations. As mentioned in the article, isn't Smith currently no 8 out of their 9 list MPs, with Pugh no. 9?
did a rough count last night and national will draw 11 from the list with Smith currently in 8th position…ah missed Stuart Smith and Chris Penk.
Electoral Commission website suggests 9 Nat list MPs, with 26 electorate MPs: https://electionresults.govt.nz/index.html
yep..just went back and checked …had missed 2
Easy to miss some of them. Quite a bit of deadwood in safe seats.
Might also be interesting to see if new list-only MPs Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith decide to retire from Parliament, if not soon, sometime this term at least. Wouldn't that mean a list lifeline for Maureen Pugh and, er, Harete Hipango?
The Herald says Gerry is mulling his future: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nationals-gerry-brownlee-tossing-up-resignation-backs-collins-to-stay-on-as-leader/EC3A4J6IFAGS7OWDSFJLGNGSVA/
I think Collins will demote Brownlee and without an electorate office Brownlee has lost everything.
Gerry will do whatever Merv and the other party elders decide.
So from one deputy party caucus leader who has already lost his electorate seat onto another who will have as well by the time that caucus meeting is held.
expect more dirty politics by the nats as some deadwood suddenly find they need to spend time with family.
It would be great if Reti loses his electorate seat. Labour candidate Emily Henderson wouldn't back Maunu residents who want a wall around their suburb to keep
poor peoplestate housing out of their suburb.Besides, if Henderson gets in there'll be two representatives for the electorate as Reti will be in on the list.
To think that a very, very short while back the unknowing were suggesting he could be a next National leader. You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not.
"You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not."
I'm waiting for the inevitable "Bring back Sabin!" campaign…
Sabin was in Northland not Whangarei.
I stand corrected. I think I got my wires crossed because he was born in Whangarei. I heard he’s great with kids and gives a good foot massage too.
I was wondering too why Reti is under so much pressure to keep his electoral seat, which he won with a majority of 10,967 votes in 2017. Compared to other National MPs, he performed well although internal Party forces possibly held his ascendance back, which was quite late in the game. In 2017, Reti received 18,734 votes and his provisional tally in 2020 stands at 15,637 votes. The Party voted tanked from 18,572 in 2017 to 10,422 in 2020. So, he has done reasonably well to hold on to his candidate votes. On the other hand, the Labour candidate went from 7,767 in 2017 to 15,475 in 2020! My take is that Reti did ok but Emily Henderson did exceptionally well to close the gap.
While Reti gained 18,734 in 2017, the boundaries of Whangarei changed for the 2020 election with a loss of about 3000 from a 'blue' rural area to the Northland electorate. So his capturing 15,637 votes in this election wasn't too bad to be fair. The very active and robust campaign by Labour gained a lot of votes from NZF [Shane Jones] 7651 in 2017 down to about 1300 in 2020 and from the Greens 4800 in 2017 down to also about 1200 in 2020. Act increased their vote from 188 in 2017 to 1800 in 2020. A closer analysis showing where Labours increased vote came from will be be very interesting . A CB poll suggested that NZF voters were changing to Labour across NZ. The Green Party candidate campaigned for the PV this time and endorsed the Labour Candidate.
Labour ran a crap candidate in 2017, i don't know any Greens who voted for him. This time all the Greens i know electorate voted Henderson.
Ta
In 2017, 472 (20.15%) people who voted for the Green Party also voted for the Labour Candidate.
Of the people who ticked the Labour Party:
2505 (19.28%) voted for the Green Candidate;
6636 (51.07%) voted for the Labour Candidate;
912 (7.02%) voted for the National Candidate, i.e. for Reti;
2188 (16.84%) voted for the NZF Candidate, i.e. for Shane Jones.
https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/statistics/split-votes-electorate-63.html
"Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes " Damn i wish the same could be said for Invercargill.
I hope the smarmy Reti gets rolled by specials, it is within reach. Emily ran a strong campaign in Whangārei and yes, as Vigo says there was a boundary change that affected quite a few “lifestyle mini farm” type areas and rural spreads with private access lanes. But I was not sure the new voters would be any less tory inclined than the old lot, but this election certainly gave the bag a shake!
The Henderson Reeves law firm is a building on a ridge that can be seen around the Whangarei CBD–and I thought that if any Labour candidate could make gains it might be someone like her with family connections to the local establishment. There have been several thousands of new residents over the past 5 years moved North from the Auckland Region according to the Whangārei District Council.
I posted a special vote in Whangarei for Emily Henderson which reduces Reti's lead by 1…..looking forward to the special results coming through in avouple of weeks.
[I’ve changed your user name to the one you’ve used here previously assuming it was a mistake using your full (real?) name – Incognito]
Excellent. Any specials above 162 on current vote standing for Emily Henderson would seal the deal! Though a small margin would be nice to have, because Mr Reti is likely to go for a recount.
I love the way Judith (remember her?) kept calling him "Doctor Shane"…..as if he was on Shortland Street or something.
The Harvard Maori.
I think Dr Reti is the best of a very very bad bunch.And behind hin MATT king is less odious than many of the other tory pretenders.His wife (Matts ) is a bit up herself but that is par for the course in Nazional party pollies /.I am sory Winstone and Shane have gone cos they did splash some cash in the north ,and it was very much needed.North of the Bay of Islands there is very little manufacturing industry or any thing else ,save forestry ,low waged ,hard labour jobs .We regularly get droughts which very much adversely effect our family dairy operation,severely testing my son in laws stoic dedication to improving his families lot .Any way brilliant result and thank goodness the next battle is 3 years away ,the liver can only survive so much abuse.