Dunne over
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10:14 am, August 13th, 2017 - 60 comments
Categories: peter dunne -
Tags: bye now, Peter Dunne, poll
Q+A Colmar Brunton poll Ōhāriu: O'Connor 48%, Dunne 34%, Hudson 14%, Hammond Doube 2%, Moore 1% #nzpol
— Colmar Brunton (@ColmarBruntonNZ) August 12, 2017
Hi Chris, the margin of error is +/- 4.4%
— Colmar Brunton (@ColmarBruntonNZ) August 12, 2017
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- Release: Labour fully supports greyhound racing ban
The Government has done the right thing in moving to ban greyhound racing. ...2 weeks ago
- Greyhound racing industry ban marks new era for animal welfare
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- Rangatahi voices must be centred in Government’s Relationship and Sexuality Education refresh
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- Govt introduces archaic anti-worker legislation
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- Winston Peters – Kinleith Mill Speech
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- Internationally-trained doctors jump at chance to boost health workforce
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He’s Dunne.
like a dog’s dinner 😉
I wouldnt bet on it. But maybe voters have finally had enough of holding their nose while filling in their ballot papers. 🙂
Ha ha – love it Ad! We’ve waited a long time to be able to say that.
O’Connor 48%
Great for the NRA!
Fair enough RC, but it’s still good news. The Haircut has to go.
In Ohariu Labour polled 23% in 2014; now 35. Jacindamania.
Giovanni Tiso tweeted:
I can’t make sense of that.
I had to read it more than once. It’s a convoluted sentence.
There’s already 2 O’Connors in parliament. Greg O’Connor would make 3. There probably will be half as many women MPs in the next parliament who have been on the DPB.
It’s a dig at the lack of representativeness of our parliament – of course, the O’Connor name doesn’t represent any group in society – just a bit of word play.
It is convoluted because it is ungrammatical. ‘Half as’ should be followed by ‘as’. “Than’ makes it senseless.
Literally he’s referring to Greg and Damien O’Conner outnumbering Paula Bennet 2:1 but I’m struggling to see the relevance. It’s contrived and juvenile and marks Tiso’s further slide into obscure ranting.
is an obvious reference to MT and PB…both having previously been on DPB and MT will not be in new Parliament leaving PB on her own and outnumbered 2 to 1 by O’connors, G and D (assuming polls are correct)….flippant but topical.
It would be clever if there was a relationship between the two (the O’Conner family and ex-DPB clients), anything at all, but there isn’t and that’s why I said it was contrived and juvenile.
To me it looks like a dig at Greg O’Conner. Tito has had a few cracks at Labour recently which imo is unhelpful to the idea of changing the government.
i guess you could infer there is a class conflict….whether he intended that or not , who knows
Just to be clear here the class conflict, as you put it, Tiso was inventing is between Damien and Greg O’Conner vs Paula Bennett.
I know which gets paid the most and it’s not the O’Conners.
no…but it could be couched as beneficiary (poor) v middle class(centrist, if you prefer)…the actual persons then become irrelevant, they are merely what they represent .
I think Tiso is more than a little confused if he thinks Paula Bennett represents beneficiaries.
Once a beneficiary, always a beneficiary …
Would this include Simon O’Connor (Nat)? But that would make three and half of three is a fraction!?
Yes. And Catherine Delahunty has tweeted that she’s probably related to 2 of the O’Connors- Greg and Damien, I think.
https://twitter.com/greencatherine/status/896563907577364480
list of all current MPs
Don’t gloat till it’s over. Pre-gloats may be post-groans. Don’t encourage the pathetic underdog mentality of people with no firm principles about the style of politics they support.
Dung dunne.
Will someone think of the bowties? They are people too.
Wouldn’t it be great to get rid of “the Voice of Reason” and that nasty piece of work Seymour?
Right with you there grey area.
For a couple of reasons:
Dunne is no more than a principle free opportunist.
Only stands for his place at the through.
Has propped up this regime for too long.
Weathervane attitude to pot, legalised the synthetic cannabis while being anti-pot.
Adds strength to my belief that this election will be a realignment election.
I really hope do. As George said “It’s been a long, cold, lonely winter”.
Interesting how the Ohariu party vote poll mirrors the last two national party vote polls, with the obvious exception of the green vote, which earns 12% here.
Don’t know the significance, if any at all, but always nice to see Lab/Grn (on 47%) above the nats.
46% National
35% Labour
12% Green
4% NZ First
12% for the Greens in Ōhāriu isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. Last election the Greens took about 15% of the Party Vote there, it’s an odd mix of some people struggling in less well-off parts of say J’ville, and very liberal urban voters and highly upwardly mobile right-wingers in places like Khandallah. I’m not surprised at 4% for NZF, they scored about 4.75% in 2014. Tane (the local Green candidate, who deliberately withdrew and is running as List-only) will want to be hitting at least 15%, if not higher.
35% Labour is very, very good though. Even accounting for some of the Green voters going to Labour, that’s still at least an 8% bump on 2014 results if it holds through to the election.
…and in the ensuing interview with Joyce, how many times did he mention the words “Strong” and “Stable”?
Tell me again how that tagline worked out for tories in the UK ?
#letsdothis
It’s the most important general election
IN
his lifetime.
We have the BillBot and Dildo.
Hooray Gregg O’CONNOR and Labour will get to win and Gregg will try to straighten out the police force I wrote another view on the Trump and Korea in yesterday blog !!!
“Gregg will try to straighten out the police force”
Isn’t he the one who wants all police to be armed at all times?
Certainly he wanted weapons to be permanently in the police cars.
I guess he is looking forward to the US situation where police seem to regard shooting people as a normal response
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11342965
That’s why he’s doing well in Ohariu, an electorate full of white people afraid of brown people climbing through their windows at night.
O’conner would love to be Police Minister and that would be a big problem for the Labour/Greens government and for New Zealand. We need someone forward thinking not someone wanting to land NZ with the problems that the US has.
Too close for comfort IMHO.
He was paid quite handsomely to want that. He may not be looking forward to it quite so much now.
I hope you are right. If the worst should happen and he was to become Police Minister I hope he can forget all the things he was in favour of when he was a shill for the Police.
On the other hand the chances that he would get into the Cabinet if Labour managed to form a Government are pretty slim.
I can only think of two recent cases of people going immediately into Cabinet. Margaret Wilson was a failure, which was rather a surprise, and Stephen Joyce has done rather well.
I don’t think that O’Connor is in their class though.
Greg O’Connor likely being elected really makes me hope that NZ First wants Police as a ministry in coalition talks, because I really do not want him as Minister of Police.
Greg O’Connor does not personally support arming the police. He said that only in his capacity as President of the Police Association, as it was a policy supported by the members he represented: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/89338825/Greg-O-Connor-not-in-favour-of-general-arming-of-police-officers
Let’s sort out Epsom, too. The Labour & Green leaders need to tell their supporters in Epsom to give their Party vote to their preferred parties, but their candidate vote to the Nat person. That way, Seymour & his shitty little party disappear forever & the Nats, in future, are marooned on approx. 42% with nobody to get them over the line, (if the Maori Party still exists, they’ll willingly go with a Lab Green Govt & NZ First won’t be around after the next term – it won’t survive Winston’s retirement/demise). Let’s take the long view, consign the neo libs to the dustbin of history & put in place a long term Social Democrat coalition Govt!
+1
I’d be pretty interested in a poll for Epsom. I rather suspect that there will be similar kinds of numbers – for a National electorate MP.
Only way to get rid of ACT. It is what you have to do. And I don’t think that the National voters there are going to be quite so quiescent this time.
Starting a “none of the above” amongst Epsom Nat supporters would be amusing. When confronted with their choice between weasels dressed as humans, they may be susceptible to a third option 🙂
Decrypter’s head hurts!
Overdunne it last night?
Well Dunne!
Dunno
Back to the Dunnegeon with you!
Without hitpoints because he got Dunne.
Oh dear. I don’t know whether to say I thought those puns got better and better or that they got worse and worse.
Discretion says I should say better. After all you can call in the debt collectors and Dunne me. Or banish me, anyway.
They all made me laugh though.
There is a total eclipse of the sun in the US on the 21st of August, during which time Seymour’s natural enemy may be available from shady Chinatown exotic plant dealers.
We’ve got Dunne on the runne!
2014 Dunne Voters
63 per cent would vote Dunne again
27 per cent switching to O’Connor
10 per cent picking another candidate.
What do you make of the Party Vote spread in that poll Swordfish? Nats got about 50% Party Vote in 2014. Labour up from 23% to 35%.
ScottGN
(Part 1)
Bear in mind: the small sample size (501 = Total Sample / And just 419 naming a Party)
Ōhāriu Party Vote
…………. 2017 CB Poll …….. 2014 Election …… Diff
Lab …………. 35 ………………………. 24 …………… + 11
Green ……… 12 ………………………. 15 ……………. – 3
L+G …………. 47 ………………………. 39 ……………. + 8
NZF …………. 4 ………………………… 5 ………………. – 1
Oppo ……… 51 ………………………. 44 …………….. + 7
Nat …………. 46 ………………………. 50 …………….. – 4
UF/M/ACT.. 1.2 ………………………. 2 …………….. – 0.8
Govt ……….. 47 ………………………. 52 ……………. – 5
Cons ………… 0 ……………………….. 3 ………………. – 3
Right ……….. 47 ……………………… 55 ……………… – 8
(TOP 1.8)
If we assume these swings were to occur nationwide … then …
the Party Vote in NZ as a whole this Election would be …
2017 NZ (hypo) …. 2014 NZ
Lab ………… 36 ……….. 25
Green …….. 8 …………. 11
L+G ………… 44 ……….. 36
NZF ………… 8 ………….. 9
Oppo ……… 53 ……….. 46
Nat …………. 43 ………. 47
UF/M/ACT.. 1.4 ……… 2.2
Govt ………… 44 ……… 49
Right ……….. 45 ………. 53
(Numbers rounded for simplicity)
Mr ‘ Family Values ‘ Dunne my arse.
He supports the dark side. Just another dark bastard wanting an ego massage , a fat tax payer salary , – just another useless career politician who couldn’t give a fuck about people.
He belongs with the dogmen.
Piss off Dunne, you’re Dunne. Crawl back in you’re tunnel. We don’t need your Lutherfarian bullshit. Go hide down your hole.
Dogman Footage Preview – YouTube
Scott Carpenter you tube▶ 10:36
(Part 2)
The 2014 Colmar Brunton Epsom Poll (a month or so out from the 2014 Election) … over-stated Greens by 3.5 points and Labour by 0.6 (so over-stating L+G by 4.1), under-stated the Nats by 3.6 … and got other Parties pretty much spot-on.
I’ll need to look at other Single Electorate pre-Election Polls in 2014 and 2011 to say something more general about the accuracy of these sorts of Polls though.
When Dunne goes he will have achieved being in government more times than any other MP. Dunne needs to start writing his valedictory speech.