Dunne over

Written By: - Date published: 10:14 am, August 13th, 2017 - 60 comments
Categories: peter dunne - Tags: , ,

60 comments on “Dunne over ”

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  1. Ad 1
    13 August 2017 at 10:24 am

    He’s Dunne.

  2. Richard Christie 2
    13 August 2017 at 10:25 am

    O’Connor 48%

    Great for the NRA!

  3. Carolyn_nth 3
    13 August 2017 at 10:50 am

    Giovanni Tiso tweeted:

    On current polling, our next parliament will have half as many women who have been on the DPB than members of the O’Connor family.

    • weka 3.1
      13 August 2017 at 11:04 am

      I can’t make sense of that.

      • Carolyn_nth 3.1.1
        13 August 2017 at 11:49 am

        I had to read it more than once. It’s a convoluted sentence.

        There’s already 2 O’Connors in parliament. Greg O’Connor would make 3. There probably will be half as many women MPs in the next parliament who have been on the DPB.

        It’s a dig at the lack of representativeness of our parliament – of course, the O’Connor name doesn’t represent any group in society – just a bit of word play.

        • In Vino 3.1.1.1
          13 August 2017 at 4:27 pm

          It is convoluted because it is ungrammatical. ‘Half as’ should be followed by ‘as’. “Than’ makes it senseless.

      • Muttonbird 3.1.2
        13 August 2017 at 12:20 pm

        Literally he’s referring to Greg and Damien O’Conner outnumbering Paula Bennet 2:1 but I’m struggling to see the relevance. It’s contrived and juvenile and marks Tiso’s further slide into obscure ranting.

        • Pat 3.1.2.1
          13 August 2017 at 12:50 pm

          is an obvious reference to MT and PB…both having previously been on DPB and MT will not be in new Parliament leaving PB on her own and outnumbered 2 to 1 by O’connors, G and D (assuming polls are correct)….flippant but topical.

          • Muttonbird 3.1.2.1.1
            13 August 2017 at 1:04 pm

            It would be clever if there was a relationship between the two (the O’Conner family and ex-DPB clients), anything at all, but there isn’t and that’s why I said it was contrived and juvenile.

            To me it looks like a dig at Greg O’Conner. Tito has had a few cracks at Labour recently which imo is unhelpful to the idea of changing the government.

            • Pat 3.1.2.1.1.1
              13 August 2017 at 1:11 pm

              i guess you could infer there is a class conflict….whether he intended that or not , who knows

              • Muttonbird …
                13 August 2017 at 1:19 pm

                Just to be clear here the class conflict, as you put it, Tiso was inventing is between Damien and Greg O’Conner vs Paula Bennett.

                I know which gets paid the most and it’s not the O’Conners.

                • Pat …
                  13 August 2017 at 1:23 pm

                  no…but it could be couched as beneficiary (poor) v middle class(centrist, if you prefer)…the actual persons then become irrelevant, they are merely what they represent .

    • Incognito 3.2
      13 August 2017 at 3:21 pm

      Would this include Simon O’Connor (Nat)? But that would make three and half of three is a fraction!?

  4. greywarshark 4
    13 August 2017 at 11:32 am

    Don’t gloat till it’s over. Pre-gloats may be post-groans. Don’t encourage the pathetic underdog mentality of people with no firm principles about the style of politics they support.

  5. CLEANGREEN 5
    13 August 2017 at 11:35 am

    Dung dunne.

  6. Muttonbird 6
    13 August 2017 at 11:47 am

    Will someone think of the bowties? They are people too.

  7. Grey Area 7
    13 August 2017 at 11:51 am

    Wouldn’t it be great to get rid of “the Voice of Reason” and that nasty piece of work Seymour?

    • gsays 7.1
      13 August 2017 at 3:38 pm

      Right with you there grey area.
      For a couple of reasons:
      Dunne is no more than a principle free opportunist.
      Only stands for his place at the through.
      Has propped up this regime for too long.
      Weathervane attitude to pot, legalised the synthetic cannabis while being anti-pot.

  8. millsy 8
    13 August 2017 at 11:55 am

    Adds strength to my belief that this election will be a realignment election.

  9. Union city greens 9
    13 August 2017 at 12:02 pm

    Interesting how the Ohariu party vote poll mirrors the last two national party vote polls, with the obvious exception of the green vote, which earns 12% here.

    Don’t know the significance, if any at all, but always nice to see Lab/Grn (on 47%) above the nats.

    46% National
    35% Labour
    12% Green
    4% NZ First

    • Matthew Whitehead 9.1
      13 August 2017 at 3:34 pm

      12% for the Greens in Ōhāriu isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. Last election the Greens took about 15% of the Party Vote there, it’s an odd mix of some people struggling in less well-off parts of say J’ville, and very liberal urban voters and highly upwardly mobile right-wingers in places like Khandallah. I’m not surprised at 4% for NZF, they scored about 4.75% in 2014. Tane (the local Green candidate, who deliberately withdrew and is running as List-only) will want to be hitting at least 15%, if not higher.

      35% Labour is very, very good though. Even accounting for some of the Green voters going to Labour, that’s still at least an 8% bump on 2014 results if it holds through to the election.

  10. NZsage 10
    13 August 2017 at 12:13 pm

    …and in the ensuing interview with Joyce, how many times did he mention the words “Strong” and “Stable”?

    Tell me again how that tagline worked out for tories in the UK ?

    #letsdothis

  11. Eco maori 11
    13 August 2017 at 12:31 pm

    Hooray Gregg O’CONNOR and Labour will get to win and Gregg will try to straighten out the police force I wrote another view on the Trump and Korea in yesterday blog !!!

    • alwyn 11.1
      13 August 2017 at 1:03 pm

      “Gregg will try to straighten out the police force”
      Isn’t he the one who wants all police to be armed at all times?
      Certainly he wanted weapons to be permanently in the police cars.
      I guess he is looking forward to the US situation where police seem to regard shooting people as a normal response
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11342965

      • Muttonbird 11.1.1
        13 August 2017 at 1:08 pm

        That’s why he’s doing well in Ohariu, an electorate full of white people afraid of brown people climbing through their windows at night.

      • marie 11.1.2
        13 August 2017 at 2:17 pm

        O’conner would love to be Police Minister and that would be a big problem for the Labour/Greens government and for New Zealand. We need someone forward thinking not someone wanting to land NZ with the problems that the US has.

      • Gabby 11.1.3
        13 August 2017 at 2:47 pm

        He was paid quite handsomely to want that. He may not be looking forward to it quite so much now.

        • alwyn 11.1.3.1
          13 August 2017 at 8:17 pm

          I hope you are right. If the worst should happen and he was to become Police Minister I hope he can forget all the things he was in favour of when he was a shill for the Police.
          On the other hand the chances that he would get into the Cabinet if Labour managed to form a Government are pretty slim.
          I can only think of two recent cases of people going immediately into Cabinet. Margaret Wilson was a failure, which was rather a surprise, and Stephen Joyce has done rather well.
          I don’t think that O’Connor is in their class though.

    • Matthew Whitehead 11.2
      13 August 2017 at 3:44 pm

      Greg O’Connor likely being elected really makes me hope that NZ First wants Police as a ministry in coalition talks, because I really do not want him as Minister of Police.

  12. Dean Reynolods 12
    13 August 2017 at 1:16 pm

    Let’s sort out Epsom, too. The Labour & Green leaders need to tell their supporters in Epsom to give their Party vote to their preferred parties, but their candidate vote to the Nat person. That way, Seymour & his shitty little party disappear forever & the Nats, in future, are marooned on approx. 42% with nobody to get them over the line, (if the Maori Party still exists, they’ll willingly go with a Lab Green Govt & NZ First won’t be around after the next term – it won’t survive Winston’s retirement/demise). Let’s take the long view, consign the neo libs to the dustbin of history & put in place a long term Social Democrat coalition Govt!

    • NZsage 12.1
      13 August 2017 at 1:57 pm

      +1

    • lprent 12.2
      13 August 2017 at 7:21 pm

      I’d be pretty interested in a poll for Epsom. I rather suspect that there will be similar kinds of numbers – for a National electorate MP.

      Only way to get rid of ACT. It is what you have to do. And I don’t think that the National voters there are going to be quite so quiescent this time.

      Starting a “none of the above” amongst Epsom Nat supporters would be amusing. When confronted with their choice between weasels dressed as humans, they may be susceptible to a third option 🙂

  13. The decrypter 13
    13 August 2017 at 1:25 pm

    Decrypter’s head hurts!

  14. Stuart Munro 14
    13 August 2017 at 3:47 pm

    There is a total eclipse of the sun in the US on the 21st of August, during which time Seymour’s natural enemy may be available from shady Chinatown exotic plant dealers.

  15. D'Esterre 15
    13 August 2017 at 4:06 pm

    We’ve got Dunne on the runne!

  16. swordfish 16
    13 August 2017 at 4:47 pm

    2014 Dunne Voters

    63 per cent would vote Dunne again
    27 per cent switching to O’Connor
    10 per cent picking another candidate.

    • ScottGN 16.1
      13 August 2017 at 5:36 pm

      What do you make of the Party Vote spread in that poll Swordfish? Nats got about 50% Party Vote in 2014. Labour up from 23% to 35%.

      • swordfish 16.1.1
        13 August 2017 at 11:39 pm

        ScottGN
        (Part 1)

        Bear in mind: the small sample size (501 = Total Sample / And just 419 naming a Party)

        Ōhāriu Party Vote
        …………. 2017 CB Poll …….. 2014 Election …… Diff
        Lab …………. 35 ………………………. 24 …………… + 11
        Green ……… 12 ………………………. 15 ……………. – 3
        L+G …………. 47 ………………………. 39 ……………. + 8

        NZF …………. 4 ………………………… 5 ………………. – 1
        Oppo ……… 51 ………………………. 44 …………….. + 7

        Nat …………. 46 ………………………. 50 …………….. – 4
        UF/M/ACT.. 1.2 ………………………. 2 …………….. – 0.8
        Govt ……….. 47 ………………………. 52 ……………. – 5

        Cons ………… 0 ……………………….. 3 ………………. – 3
        Right ……….. 47 ……………………… 55 ……………… – 8

        (TOP 1.8)

        If we assume these swings were to occur nationwide … then …
        the Party Vote in NZ as a whole this Election would be …

        2017 NZ (hypo) …. 2014 NZ
        Lab ………… 36 ……….. 25
        Green …….. 8 …………. 11
        L+G ………… 44 ……….. 36

        NZF ………… 8 ………….. 9
        Oppo ……… 53 ……….. 46

        Nat …………. 43 ………. 47
        UF/M/ACT.. 1.4 ……… 2.2
        Govt ………… 44 ……… 49

        Right ……….. 45 ………. 53

        (Numbers rounded for simplicity)

  17. WILD KATIPO 17
    14 August 2017 at 12:11 am

    Mr ‘ Family Values ‘ Dunne my arse.

    He supports the dark side. Just another dark bastard wanting an ego massage , a fat tax payer salary , – just another useless career politician who couldn’t give a fuck about people.

    He belongs with the dogmen.

    Piss off Dunne, you’re Dunne. Crawl back in you’re tunnel. We don’t need your Lutherfarian bullshit. Go hide down your hole.

    Dogman Footage Preview – YouTube
    Scott Carpenter you tube▶ 10:36

  18. swordfish 18
    14 August 2017 at 12:53 am

    (Part 2)

    The 2014 Colmar Brunton Epsom Poll (a month or so out from the 2014 Election) … over-stated Greens by 3.5 points and Labour by 0.6 (so over-stating L+G by 4.1), under-stated the Nats by 3.6 … and got other Parties pretty much spot-on.

    I’ll need to look at other Single Electorate pre-Election Polls in 2014 and 2011 to say something more general about the accuracy of these sorts of Polls though.

  19. Treetop 19
    14 August 2017 at 12:56 pm

    When Dunne goes he will have achieved being in government more times than any other MP. Dunne needs to start writing his valedictory speech.

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