Energy’s Iron Triangle.
Written By:
- Date published:
7:46 am, December 11th, 2020 - 62 comments
Categories: energy, Environment, global warming, uncategorized -
Tags: energy, global warming
For those who don’t trawl through all the comments; a little personal background. I’ve been fortunate enough to have just finished up a 40 year career in technology and automation, most of it in heavy industry. Looking back it’s been one hell of an adventure, tough at times, but I’ve been one of those lucky people who find their work intrinsically rewarding. While most of my working life was based in NZ, a good 20% or so was in other countries. Some of them reasonably exotic locations.
At the same time, I’ve always maintained an interest in a range of non-mainstream alternative views of the world … the list is long and varied, I’ll spare this forum from listing the peculiar tangents I’ve explored over time. But in a nutshell, I may have earned a living in a deterministic world, but my soul always yearned to have a few non-deterministic mysteries left.
The two world views have not always sat comfortably with me; neither the eco-loon nor the engineer could fully answer the questions I asked of them … where the hell are we going? The engineer informed me of just how our incomprehensibly complex, inter-dependent, industrialised world sustains us all; while the eco-loon declared that same world often destructive in unintended ways, alienating and ultimately perhaps doomed. They both spoke truth, even if their sensibilities and voices conflicted.
The Eco-Modernist movement attempts a reconciliation, and this piece references in particular their manifesto outlining a path forward. Let’s start with what has been achieved in the unique, turbulent and astonishing period we have come through:
Humanity has flourished over the past two centuries. Average life expectancy has increased from 30 to 70 years, resulting in a large and growing population able to live in many different environments. Humanity has made extraordinary progress in reducing the incidence and impacts of infectious diseases, and it has become more resilient to extreme weather and other natural disasters.
Violence in all forms has declined significantly and is probably at the lowest per capita level ever experienced by the human species, the horrors of the 20th century and present-day terrorism notwithstanding. Globally, human beings have moved from autocratic government toward liberal democracy characterized by the rule of law and increased freedom.
Personal, economic, and political liberties have spread worldwide and are today largely accepted as universal values. Modernization liberates women from traditional gender roles, increasing their control of their fertility. Historically large numbers of humans — both in percentage and in absolute terms — are free from insecurity, penury, and servitude.
Moreover our population is going to increase more than ten-fold, from just under 1b in 1800 to probably a bit over 10b in 2100. A world of 10b mouths to feed is fundamentally different to one of 1b; each and every day these people are fed, clothed and largely kept alive by an industrial system of immense complexity, a web of energy, resources, methods and mechanisation spread across the globe. A photosynthesis constrained world (muscle and wood energy only) simply never did this; our so-called ‘carrying capacity’ under those conditions was probably somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0b. Unwind the industrial system and there is little reason to think this is not the population (and similar social conditions) that will eventually prevail; a fast or slow collapse … the outcome would eventually be a reversion to very similar pre-industrial conditions.
Yet without belabouring the obvious, this same industrial system rests heavily on fossil carbon fuels that we know we cannot continue to consume without another equally unhappy outcome; a climate/resource crisis that will destabilise everything. Again slow or fast … the outcome will be the same. And there is no rule that says we might not stumble into both crisis’ at once, an economic/technology collapse and climate change both feeding into each other.
This is a stark outlook. The current industrial path we are on appears to be a literal dead end, yet abandoning it altogether and reverting to the pre-industrial world is equally catastrophic. Neither is an acceptable plan … and for the purposes of the argument being made here, I am firmly setting both aside as essentially strawmen arguments.
This leaves us with two broad options; the most popular is the idea that we might retreat a little, downsize our consumption habits to somewhere around the developed world in the 1950’s. There is merit to this, we’ve been there before and thus we know it can be done. But it comes with at least three problems. One is that selectively unravelling what technology and consumption we want to keep (nice things like birth control, computers, etc) while shutting down the ones we have to let go is a non-trivial problem. Assuming we can maintain the benefits of modernisation, while unwinding much of underlying physical basis of it at the same time is a risky assumption.
More pragmatically, there is no global solidarity for such a program. Neither the developing world would buy into it, quite reasonably they would see it as the rich world denying them the benefits they have briefly enjoyed, or a rogue nation might cheat on the deal and seize a hegemonic dominance. Absent any global means to reliably enforce such a powerdown, indefinitely into the future, it’s an idea set up to fail in my view for these two reasons alone.
But in more seriously a world of maybe 2 -3b humans we can make the numbers around such a managed retreat work. With 10b it’s much less clear that they do. No matter our good intentions here, I do not believe we can “save and efficiency’ our way out of this in the long run. (Note: None of this implies that reducing waste, gross profligacy and moderating our material demands on the world should not be done where possible; it’s just an insufficient action in isolation.)
The takeaway here is a version of the classic ‘Iron Triangle‘, three constraints appear to define our future; one is destabilising environmental cost of continuing with our present industrialised base, the other is the unsupportable cost of abandoning it, and the third being an absolute ethical requirement to ensure a world of 10b people can thrive in both hope and dignity.
Right now we occupy the triangular space between them … and it’s shrinking. To escape we must find a path past one of the boundaries.
PS: During the process of writing this up a new page appeared at OurWorldInData just yesterday. It explores this theme and provides much greater background data and detail.
62 comments on “Energy’s Iron Triangle. ”
- Comments are now closed
- Comments are now closed
CommentsOpinions
Recent Comments
FeedsPartyGovtMedia
- This is bad news
The speech yesterday by Treasury’s Chief Economic Advisor warning that the books are in worse shape than forecasted looks like it’s part of a softening-up process for either more cuts or a longer wait to get back into surplus. The speech was a highly unusual public preview of Treasury’s Half-Yearly ...49 minutes ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
Open access notables Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances: Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane ...10 hours ago - Chicken Kiev
Chatting in the supermarket this morning, I found I needed to lunge for the chicken drumsticks.Coping mechanisms: who hasn’t felt a greater need for them lately?When it all gets too much, I turn to demonstrating handy butchery hacks.It wasn’t that she’d said anything wrong, our friend, not at all. We ...13 hours ago - The year is 2024 and it’s 1984
This is written in response to the highly significant open letter from a group of economists that was today addressed to Christopher Luxon. The year is 2024, and it’s 1984. The country is reeling from a record Olympic medal gold haul, while the globe grapples with the choice of the ...14 hours ago - The IPCA has failed
Back in 2022, RNZ took an in-depth look at the "Independent" Police Conduct Authority and its handling of killings by police. These are the most serious test of oversight, and you would expect the police's use of lethal force to receive the most severe scrutiny. But despite the police regularly ...18 hours ago - Thursday 21 November 2024
The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...18 hours ago - ‘These budget cuts are counter-productive and make no sense’
I spoke to former Productivity Chair Nana this morning about the letter he and a group of other economists sent to PM Christopher Luxon to urge the Government to urgently suspend cuts to spending and investment for the sake of the economy, struggling businesses and the wellbeing of vulnerable ...20 hours ago - ACT’s Astroturfing & A Co-ordinated Attack on Te Pati Māori
Unity on the Streets / Unity at the TableAfter the Hīkoi, all three right wing Coalition leaders came together to push the idea that the 42,000 - 50,000 + strong Hikoi was somehow less potent and brave, and more illegitimate than the energy and crowd displayed.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 20-November: ...20 hours ago - Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for stabilizing temperatures
This is a re-post from the Climate Brink The world is emitting over 40 gigatons of CO2 per year, contributing to an accelerating warming of the planet. The world needs to cut emissions rapidly to be remotely on track to meet our Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to well-below 2C, and we ...21 hours ago
- Throwback Thursday: Will “Auckland Transport” Survive?
With Auckland Transport’s future up in the air under Mayor Wayne Brown’s proposed CCO reform, we’ve dug way back into the archives, to unearth this post originally published in March 2010. As you’ll see, many of the debates that were being had when AT was first proposed continue to ...22 hours ago - I Love My Leather Jacket
I wear my leather jacket like a great big hugRadiating charm - a living cloak of luckIt's the only concrete link with an absent friendIt's a symbol I can wear 'till we meet againOr it's a weight around my neck while the owner's freeBoth protector and reminder of mortalityIt's a ...22 hours ago - Economists call on PM to suspend budget cuts for the sake of the economy
Nicola Willis’ budget cuts are under fire from economists for having no clear rationale and worsening the recession. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 21: The news at ...22 hours ago
- The end of policing by consent
National has appointed a new police commissioner. And he explicitly rejects policing by consent: Asked if he subscribed to policing by consent, he said he did not. “I don’t talk about policing by consent. I talk about trust and confidence, and it is fundamentally important that the police have ...2 days ago
- The Treaty Principles Bill: A Who’s Who
David Horatio Waterbed SeymourFringe politician and dweeb transformed successfully by ThinkTank money into a well-oiled soundbite robot.Currently programmed to say: Equal rights for all New Zealanders Equal rights for all New Zealanders Equal rights for all New Zealanders Was previously programmed to say:I am a proud libertarian andI am a ...2 days ago - Kinleith mill closure shows need for industrial strategy
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is calling on the Government to deliver an economic and industrial strategy for regional manufacturing, rather than just expressing sympathy for job losses, following the announced closure of Kinleith mill in Tokoroa. “The closure Kinleith mill in Tokoroa is not just devastating for ...2 days ago
- 27% of kids going hungry, up from 21% in a year
One in four Kiwi children live in households where food runs out often or sometimes. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, November 20: The lead: The official annual Health Survey found sharp ...2 days ago - Transport modelling is an illusion
This guest post by Tim Adriaansen, an advocate for accessibility and sustainable transport, originally published on LinkedIn and cross posted here with permission. People prefer cars, right? Probably not. Here’s why. Granted, most people in English-speaking countries use a car to get around. This simple reality underpins our transport ...2 days ago
- Young Maori take over
Neither Wellington nor Parliament has ever seen anything like it before. The Police said there were more than 40,000 but however many there were, yesterday’s Hikoi to Parliament was a monumental event. It was almost three times the Foreshore and Seabed martch of 2004 and many,many times bigger than ...2 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On The Hikoi Aftermath
The euphoria from yesterday’s hikoi may be transitory, but is no less valuable for that. It is pretty rare for the left to feel itself to be in the overwhelming majority, and speaking as the voice of the people. Lest that momentum be lost, the organisers will no doubt be ...2 days ago - Sabin 33 #3 – Solar panels generate too much waste and will overwhelm landfills
On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia ...2 days ago
- What’s the time Mr Seymour?
Mr David Seymour crawling up to the ceilingThe sun don't shine the sun don't shine the sun don't shine at allMamma Pappa say you should go to school, I don't know what forNow that I've grown up and seen the world and all its liesSong: Southside of Bombay"Ake, ake, ake" ...2 days ago - Submit to defend te Tiriti!
The Justice Committee has called for submissions on National's racist and constitutionally radical Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill. Submissions can be made at the link above or by post, and are due by Tuesday, 7 January 2025. But I'd get in quick, in case National grows a spine ...3 days ago
- We need to talk about Kevin
All happy families are alike; each unhappy family has a Drunk Uncle Kevin in there somewhere. If your Kevin is anything like the ones I know, he was getting along happily enough without having to think too much about the Treaty Principles Bill apart from bloody good job, onya guys ...3 days ago - The hikoi
Like everyone else (everyone who wasn't there, anyway), I've spent the morning watching the hikoi march on Parliament. The pictures are astounding: parliament grounds and the surrounding streets are full, and there are still people backed up along Lambton Quay. The police are estimating 35,000 people, and that's a floor ...3 days ago
- Why Govt & NZ Inc should boycott & regulate Facebook
3 days ago - How should we talk about change?
A better world isn’t just possible, it’s desirable. And that’s how we should frame a lot of our conversations around making a greater Auckland. As an example take urban climate action. A climate friendly Auckland: Is free from congestion Enables people to travel how they choose Is filled with ...3 days ago
- AMA + Holiday Webworm Merch!
3 days ago - Discount Code for Webworm Merch!
Hi,So there’s a bunch of new stuff on the Webworm store (www.webworm.store) — just in time for the Holidays. Read more ...3 days ago - Trying to defuse the tension
There were urgent moves yesterday at Parliament to try and defuse the tension building up over ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill. The Bill’s author, ACT leader David Seymour, told reporters that he understood the Justice Select Committee met yesterday to discuss how long it should take to consider submissions on the ...3 days ago
- An Irritable NZ Pawn – David Seymour Admits Treaty Principles Bill will clear the way for deve...
3 days ago - Gordon Campbell On The Hikoi Arrival, And Tyler Childers
Politicians like to bang on all about the need to heal society’s racial/economic divisions, but in their actions they’re more keen on stoking those divisions, with the Treaty Principles Bill being the classic example. The Bill seeks to dilute the Crown’s responsibilities to Māori at the same time as it ...3 days ago
- Socially Backwards and Fiscally Forwards: the False Ideological Divide and the “Conservative” Li...
3 days ago - Kaamos: Accepted
I appreciate that A Phuulish Fellow has been fairly quiet recently. That’s a combination of two things – comparatively little in the way of relevant material to discuss (at least until The War of the Rohirrim comes out next month), and my general work on The Secret Non-Fiction Writing Project. ...3 days ago - Here’s how governments could fix their Paris climate commitment failures
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Governments around the world face a conundrum. Virtually none are on track to meet their Paris climate commitments. That includes the United States, which committed to cut its emissions at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 but is only on track for 32-43% cuts ...4 days ago
- Unstoppable.
4 days ago - Katherine Trebeck – An Alternative Economic Narrative
The era of neoliberalism has been destructive on so many levels, with a huge growth in wealth and privilege for the one percent. A hollowing out of the state; fraying of the safety net; inadequate government investment in infrastructure; and continued environmental degradation has resulted in damage on a vast ...4 days ago - In a Manner of Speaking
In a manner of speakingI just want to sayThat I could never forget the wayYou told me everythingBy saying nothingOh, give me the wordsGive me the wordsThat tell me nothingOh, give me the wordsGive me the wordsThat tell me everythingSongwriter: Winston TongNext Tuesday, the subscription price for Nick’s Kōrero will ...4 days ago - Monday 18 November 2024
The NZNO have announced a nationwide strike for December over its pay dispute with Health NZ, who have put a 1 per cent cap on pay rises. The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti and Treaty Principles Bill remain front and centre in the media, with the impacts of the Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke-led ...4 days ago
- Shipley warns Seymour’s bill is ‘inviting civil war’
The divisive Treaty Principles Bill is not just a risk for the National Party, it’s a risk to civil order and unity, warns a National Party grandee. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on ...4 days ago - A clearer network for the City Rail Link?
This post was originally published on Linked In by Nicolas Reid. It is republished here with permission. Auckland is now just a year or so away from having the keystone of its urban rail network complete. As I wrote about here, the City Rail Link will be a literal game changer for ...4 days ago
- National’s support base is wobbling
If ACT leader David Seymour intended the Treaty Principles Bill to drive a wedge into National’s support base, he may well already be succeeding. By midnight on Thursday after the Maori Party haka in Parliament, National MPs were being deluged with emails and messages from their members calling them out ...4 days ago
- 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
A listing of 33 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, November 10, 2024 thru Sat, November 16, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is completely "meta" (no, not that Meta). It's about our exploring how ...4 days ago
- Grifter Eftpos Tamaki at it again
..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Self-appointed “Bishop” and proto-fascist, Brian Tamaki was at it again on 16 November, blocking Auckland’s southern motorway, SH1.This time, the target of his ire wasn’t the Civil Unions Act; covid lock-downs; mask mandates; or ...5 days ago - Rip up a bill, lead a haka are words to live by
I cannot stop grabbing people by the lapels, or shoulders, or similar, and raving at them about the tiny miracles in my ears.I can hear again! There could not be a more satisfied customer in all the world.In a noisy cafe I am even catching words that Karren cannot, she ...5 days ago - Unintended Consequences
Take the baitYou pay the priceIt's much too lateFor good adviceYou know and I know that our good things' throughBecause there's consequences for what we doConsequences for me and youWriters: Kevin Robert Hayes, David Nagier, Bonnie Adele Hayes.Fallout from the first readingOne News began last night by saying that tens ...6 days ago - Thank you, driver!
Today, Saturday 16th of November, is Auckland Transport’s Bus Driver Appreciation Day! Saturday 16 November marks the third annual Auckland Transport (AT) ‘Bus Driver Appreciation Day’, and this year we are encouraging all of New Zealand to thank their driver or let the bus go first if you are in ...6 days ago
- Totally Normal: Holiday Edition
Hi,If I was to accurately sum up my mental state over the week, I’d just say that I got a huge fright from my own shadow.I’d nipped out for an 11pm neighborhood stroll, just to calm down after a day of stress and screens. The Cure and Fazerdaze’s new record ...6 days ago - We Are Not Listening
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
7 days ago - More lawlessness from National
On Tuesday, sick of government stonewalling, the Waitangi Tribunal issued a rare court order, ordering the Minister of Health to release unredacted documents within 48 hours showing its reasoning for disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The government's response to the lawful order of a court? Yeah, ...7 days ago
- National’s tyrannical “foreign interference” law
Yesterday, under cover the the biggest political fight of the year, National quietly - covertly, even - introduced anti-foreign interference legislation. The bill is the product of a years-long work-program aimed at countering shit like this and this, and there's unquestionably a need to do something to counter foreign states' ...7 days ago
- The Haka Represents The Best Of Us
A few months ago, I was in an audience watching a Haka-Kapa and as I watched children dance and sing and sway and shout and beat, I couldn’t help but think “The Haka represents the best of us.”Yes, yes - there will be a thousand voices that rush forth to ...7 days ago
- Adding up the climate cost
St Mary’s Bay housing left hanging: Climate risk is systemically underestimated in the climate scenarios used by central banks, and a new report warns 10,000 houses are set to become uninsurable in Aotearoa. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in ...7 days ago
- Auckland chafing at Bishop’s housing intensification orders
One of the major problems the Government has in implementing its ‘going for housing growth’ strategy is that it isn’t giving much funding help to councils. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...7 days ago - Friday 15 November 2024
The Treaty Principles Bill continues to dominate political news, with it passing its first reading in the House. Parliament was briefly suspended and Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke suspended for 24 hours after leading a haka that was joined by opposition MPs and the public in the gallery. Willie ...7 days ago
- Weekly Roundup 15-November-2024
Happy Friday, welcome to another round-up of interesting stories about what’s happening in Auckland and other cities. Feel free to add your links in the comments! This post, like all our work, is brought to you by a largely volunteer crew and made possible by generous donations from our readers ...7 days ago
- Are We The Waiting?
And screamingAre we we are, are we we are the waitingAnd screamingAre we we are, are we we are the waitingForget me nots, second thoughts live in isolationHeads or tails and fairy tales in my mindAre we we are, are we we are the waiting unknownThe rage and love, the ...7 days ago - The Hoon around the week to November 15
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate news, including from COP29 this week; on the US Presidential elections, Israel vs Gaza/Iran/Lebanon, Ukraine/Nato vs Russia/North ...7 days ago
- First Tea and Toast, now Milo — why do NZ’s best beverages need so much defending?
Only two months ago, Nicola Willis had to step in to stop Health New Zealand cutting tea and toast for post-birth parents, and now Lester Levy is riding to the rescue with a welcome message for all: our health workers can once again drink Milo, and will no longer need ...1 week ago - Gordon Campbell on the folly of making apologies in a social vacuum.
Day One of the Treaty Principles Bill…and everyone got what they wanted, and did what they liked. Heated words were exchanged. Culturally appropriate acts of outrage were performed. David Seymour got to play the victim card. Willie Jackson got kicked out of class. A comically red-faced Mr Speaker bellowed “Order, ...1 week ago
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2024
Open access notables Microbial solutions must be deployed against climate catastrophe, Peixoto et al., Nature Communications [comment]: The climate crisis is escalating. A multitude of microbe-based solutions have been proposed, and these technologies hold great promise and could be deployed along with other climate mitigation strategies. However, these solutions have ...1 week ago
- The PM gets some extremely valuable legal advice for free
You can pay a great deal of money for the services of a KC. So just what would some peerless legal writing from 40 or so of them be worth, do you reckon?Priceless, that’s what. It’s not even the half of it, but this is my favourite part of the ...1 week ago - D-day for the government
The government's Treaty Principles Bill is up for its first reading today - bought forward in a rush in a desperate effort to avoid the hikoi which is currently marching on Wellington. But the Prime Minister won’t be there for it – he’s literally running away to Peru! But he ...1 week ago
- 97% of submissions did not want no-cause evictions, Trump chooses a Russian spy for US Intelligence ...
Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill. It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the ...1 week ago - Government must vote down ACT Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is calling on the Government to vote down an ACT Party Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights by making it easier for employers to fire workers. Last week ACT MP Laura Trask’s Employment Relations (Termination of Employment by Agreement) Amendment Bill was ...1 week ago
- Seymour causes thousands of unjustified absences by forcing kids to fight for their rights instead o...
The State would like to remind you that they are in control. They manage your employment prospects, and can destroy the job market you and yours rely on by mass-cancelling construction projects, cutting funding, and firing a good chunk of our public servants. They wield the mechanisms that provide scrutiny ...1 week ago - The Weight of the World
As the weight of the world Hangs on your shoulders The weight of the world Starts to take over again And over again All that you once loved, now you hate So slowly relearn how to meditate To have and to hold And never let go Can you feel it ...1 week ago - Thursday 14 November 2024
The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...1 week ago
- Trump’s return to White House brings the climate’s ‘find out’ phase closer
As we absorb the news of Trump's victory in the US Presidential election, here’s a wrap compiled just before the result of what it might mean for climate action: The UN Secretary General says the prospective departure of the United States would cripple the Paris Agreement, likening it to the ...1 week ago
- Time and Space in the City Centre
Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the City Centre Advisory Panel. The header image is from Walthamstow, London The city centre now has a few stretches of street where the space has been repurposed to a people and place focused design from full time traffic use. These are a great ...1 week ago
- An opportunity for a pro-growth tax switch
As the Hikoi against it swells into the tens of thousands, KCs call on National to kill off ACT’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. Photo: Getty ImagesKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 14: The ...1 week ago - Dealing to the big Aussie banks
The big question hovering over the Select Committee Inquiry into banking is what the Government will do with its findings. If yesterday’s hearing is anything to go by there is a tidal wave of discontent about the four big Australian Banks crashing through the Committee which may force it to ...1 week ago
- 20 fact briefs published in collaboration with Gigafact!
In April 2024 we announced the (renewed) collaboration between Gigafact and Skeptical Science to create fact briefs, short but credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. Our initial plan had been to publish one fact brief per week on Saturdays but - as happens ...1 week ago
- Instead of axing the HRC, ACT corruptly installed a racist, transphobic “Gay Human Rights Commissi...
On November 5th, the Spinoff published a very interesting article on Stephen Rainbow, the Human Rights Commission’s latest recruitment, and how he came to get the controversial appointment. Naturally because of the excitement of the US election, it’s flown a little below the radar. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/05-11-2024/i-didnt-get-the-hrc-job-stephen-rainbows-human-rights-commission-appointment-just-got-weirderThe article details evidence of the ...1 week ago - Injustice for torture
Between 1950 and 1993 the New Zealand government tortured and abused up to 250,000 children in residential care facilities. Yesterday, following formal findings from a royal commission, it finally apologised for that abuse. The next step is redress and restitution - compensating the surviving victims for the appalling harm they ...1 week ago
- Voices echo
1 week ago
- NZ’s global climate rankings plummet as Govt removes agriculture from ETS
The Government has passed legislation to remove agriculture from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) while Aotearoa’s reputation on climate action plummets. ...12 hours ago - Failed boot camp experiment must end
As legislation to set up boot camps passed its first reading, the Green Party urged the Government to abandon this failed policy experiment for the good of our rangatahi. ...13 hours ago
- Gender-affirming care must centre evidence and health needs, not political posturing
The Ministry of Health has today released an evidence brief regarding the use of puberty blockers in gender-affirming healthcare, amid moves by the government to limit access. ...13 hours ago
- Release: National doesn’t care about manufacturing
The National Government is walking away from our manufacturing sector with constant reports of closures and job losses. ...15 hours ago - Release: David Parker speech – Piketty, Inequality and Climate Change
David Parker's speech from the University of Auckland's forum on Piketty, Inequality and Climate Change in September 2024. ...15 hours ago
- Release: Youth mental wellbeing no longer a priority for Child Poverty Minister
Louise Upston has revealed her diminished vision for vulnerable youth against a backdrop of snubbed advice, scrapped priorities, shifted goal posts and thousands more children projected to fall into poverty. ...16 hours ago
- Release: National’s lack of climate action taking NZ backwards
National Government’s backward-looking climate policy has seen New Zealand fall seven places on the Climate Change Performance Index to 41 out of 63 countries measured. ...16 hours ago
- Release: Simple reason for drop in emergency housing
When the Government says it has reduced the number of people in emergency housing, what it means is it is stopping people from accessing it in the first place. ...19 hours ago
- Govt’s child wellbeing strategy ‘shallow and shameful’
The Government is turning its back on children by not only weakening child poverty reduction targets, but also removing child mental wellbeing as a priority focus in their Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. ...20 hours ago
- Release: A historic win for Samoan communities
Labour warmly welcomes the Restoring Samoan Citizenship Bill as it passes its third reading, before becoming law. ...21 hours ago
- Government plan to reinstate live animal exports a “national disgrace”
The Government has taken a giant step backwards by reinstating live animal exports. ...1 day ago
- Pasifika justice as Member’s Bill passes final reading
Teanau Tuiono’s Member’s Bill, the Citizenship (Western Samoa Restoration) Amendment Bill, has passed its third reading and will become law. ...1 day ago
- Release: Minister of Education thinks New Zealand ends at the Bombay Hills
The Minister of Education has shown complete disregard for rural communities and their school bus routes in Question Time today. ...2 days ago
- Economists sound alarm on Government’s slash-and-burn approach
A group of prominent economists has released an open letter to the Government, raising grave concerns about the far-reaching consequences of its fiscal policy. ...2 days ago
- Release: Smoking numbers up under Costello’s watch
National’s repeal of Labour’s smokefree legislation has taken New Zealand further away from achieving a Smokefree 2025 and a smokefree generation. ...2 days ago
- Release: Call for Palestine recognition by NZ, Australian and Canadian MPs
Parliamentarians from Australia, Canada and New Zealand have written an open letter to their respective Prime Ministers calling on them to recognise Palestine. ...2 days ago
- Justice Select Committee opens floor for Treaty Principles submissions
Today, the Justice Select Committee has decided to officially open submissions for the controversial Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
- Power of the people on full display as hīkoi approaches Parliament
Today, Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington, with thousands gathering to march in unity against the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
- Hypocrisy as Te Whatu Ora contractor bill balloons
Te Whatu Ora’s bill for contracting and consulting staff has ballooned by nearly 20 percent under the National Government, breaking a promise they made during the election campaign to cut contractors. ...4 days ago
- Release: Growing pressure to scrap Section 7AA Repeal Bill
The newly released Section 7AA Repeal Bill's select committee report is further evidence that the Government should scrap it. ...4 days ago
- Government’s move to monetise access to nature a slippery slope
The Green Party is voicing serious concerns over the Government’s proposal to charge for access to public conservation land, released today. ...7 days ago
- Green Party condemns the passage of Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party condemns the passing of the Treaty Principles Bill at first reading, and is clear that the fight is not over. ...1 week ago
- Stand Up for Te Tiriti
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Over 15,000 sign Labour’s open letter to Luxon
As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Fast Track Bill threatens environment, climate and reputation
The fast-track legislation passing its second reading in Parliament is another step towards environmental ruin. ...1 week ago
- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 week ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...1 week ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
- Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 weeks ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Winston Peters must apologise
The Deputy Prime Minister should apologise to the public servant he named and blamed for something they did not do, and for misusing the rules of Parliament. ...2 weeks ago
- Government action provides Southland farmers more time to meet plan requirements
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...13 hours ago - Bill reaffirms Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...13 hours ago
- Critical milestones for earthquake buildings review
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...14 hours ago
- State of the art radiology machine for Auckland
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...14 hours ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Europe
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Europe for high-level talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom next week. "Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand's traditional and likeminded diplomatic and ...15 hours ago
- First arrests made under gang patch ban
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...16 hours ago
- Better support for victims of sexual violence
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...17 hours ago
- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...17 hours ago
- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...18 hours ago
- Attendance rates increase, again
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...20 hours ago
- Improving the lives of young New Zealanders
Ensuring New Zealand is the best place in the world for children and young people is the vision at the heart of the Government’s new Child and Youth Strategy, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. “Childhood represents a huge opportunity to set people on a positive path towards living ...22 hours ago
- Government continues work to reinstate livestock exports by sea
The Government is reinstating the trade of livestock exports by sea while ensuring the highest standards of animal welfare, says Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard.“The Government will introduce legislation changes to reinstate the trade, enhance oversight, and strengthen requirements for exporters to identify risks and manage the welfare of ...1 day ago
- Speech to the National Quality Forum 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...2 days ago
- New Zealand’s COP29 National Statement
Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...2 days ago
- Latest Quarterly Investment Report released
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...2 days ago
- New Zealand supporting loss and damage fund
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced New Zealand will contribute NZ$10 million to the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage while at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. “New Zealand is joining the global effort to address the significant challenge of responding to ...2 days ago
- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
The free ride for gangs is over when the clock strikes midnight tonight, with tough new laws officially coming into effect, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell say. “Gang patches will no longer be able to be worn in public. To earn the right to wear a ...2 days ago
- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
The Government is welcoming the decision by the Local Government Funding Agency to increase access to financing tools for fast growing councils to support greater investment in critical infrastructure, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Communities across the country are facing an infrastructure deficit and significant population growth is projected in ...2 days ago
- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...2 days ago
- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...2 days ago
- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...2 days ago
- Significant milestone for Canterbury Road of National Significance
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...3 days ago
- Health survey results to help drive change
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says findings from the annual Health Survey highlight the need to continue driving better health outcomes for New Zealanders. The New Zealand Health Survey is an annual snapshot of key metrics measured from July 2023 – July 2024. Findings released this morning include: In 2023/24, ...3 days ago
- Final push needed to get to Smokefree 2025
A renewed effort to get people to quit smoking will build on what has worked to date and target the groups who most need support, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said today. “The latest New Zealand Health Survey results show the daily smoking rate at 6.9 per cent and we ...3 days ago
- New diplomatic appointments
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced four new diplomatic appointments. “Our diplomats play an important role in ensuring New Zealand’s interests are maintained and enhanced across the world,” Mr Peters says. “It is a pleasure to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign ...3 days ago
- Next steps for Regulatory Standards Bill
Regulation Minister David Seymour has today announced the next steps in the Government’s plan improve the quality of regulation by opening consultation on a proposed Regulatory Standards Bill. “New Zealand's low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation,” says Mr Seymour. ...3 days ago
- Red Tape Tipline goes live
Minister for Regulation David Seymour has today announced that the Ministry for Regulation’s Red Tape Tipline is now live. “We want to hear about your red tape horror stories. From today, New Zealanders will have a say on how they are regulated through an online portal,” says Mr Seymour. The ...3 days ago
- Youth Parliament 2025 announced
The Minister for Youth Matt Doocey has today announced the eleventh Youth Parliament will be taking place in 2025. “Youth Parliament offers a unique youth development opportunity to young people from across New Zealand to experience the political process and learn about how government works,” says Mr Doocey. “The two-day ...4 days ago
- Police stats show promising change
After nearly a year in Government, Kiwis have seen significant change across law and order with promising early results shown across some Police statistics, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “In August 2023, I told New Zealanders that if they had not started to see a change in public safety within ...4 days ago
- Better coordination of anti-scam efforts
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...4 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...4 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend ASEAN meeting
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...4 days ago
- Launching the White Ribbon Ride
The Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour, was on hand to wish riders well at the start of the North Island leg of the White Ribbon Ride in Whakatāne this morning. The ride helps mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ...5 days ago
- Construction to begin on next stage of Papakura to Drury
Construction on the next stage of the SH1 Papakura to Drury project will begin early next month, with the contract for works awarded to Fulton Hogan, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. "SH1 Papakura to Drury is a key project that will drive economic growth and productivity, reduce congestion, and enable people ...6 days ago
- NZ signs trade deal with Costa Rica, Iceland and Switzerland
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has signed a pioneering trade agreement that prioritises New Zealand’s sustainable exports at a ceremony during APEC in Peru today. “The Agreement on Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), between Costa Rica, Iceland, and Switzerland was concluded in July of this year and opens up significant ...6 days ago
- Government and iwi work together on aquaculture
Five new Aquaculture Settlement Areas will help ensure Ngāi Tahu shares in the opportunities aquaculture offers for Southland’s economy, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. “The Aquaculture Settlement Areas (ASAs) I’m announcing today set aside space so the Crown and Ngāi Tahu can assess their potential for aquaculture development. ...7 days ago
- Government launches review to ensure electricity market is fit-for-purpose
The terms of reference for a review of the performance of the electricity market have been released. The review, initiated by the Coalition Government during the power crisis in winter will look at whether current regulations and market design support economic growth and access to reliable and affordable electricity, Energy Minister ...7 days ago
- Speech to Social Investment Hui: Jack and his whānau need our help
Kia ora koutou katoa. Nau mai, haere mai, piki mai. Ki te mihi atu ahau, ki te manwhenua nei, Te Atiawa, Ngāti toa rangatira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you, Andy, for your introduction. Let me acknowledge you as the new Chief Executive of the Social Investment ...7 days ago
- Minister of State for Trade heads to Brisbane for PACER Plus meeting
Minister of State for Trade Nicola Grigg has travelled to Australia to attend the PACER Plus Ministers Meeting in Brisbane. “Trade plays a critical role in driving employment, economic growth, and improving the standards of living in the Pacific Region. The Government is strongly committed to supporting Pacific Island countries ...7 days ago
- Proposals to modernise conservation released
Toitū te taiao – Our environment endures The Government is consulting on proposals to modernise New Zealand’s conservation management system, aiming to protect relevant natural areas while supporting sustainable growth in tourism and regional economies, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. “Today, the Department of Conservation – Te Papa Atawhai is ...7 days ago
- This week three parties stood together – can they withstand the storm to come?
There is plenty yet to play out, but the next election is at this rate shaping up as trio versus trio, writes Toby Manhire. A subplot of this week’s historic hīkoi mō te Tiriti has been the sight of the three opposition parties presenting a unified front. Te Pāti Māori ...49 minutes ago - All 33 malls in Auckland ranked from worst to best
From the low lows of abandon empires to the high highs of a mall done just right. This is the second in the Malls of New Zealand series, where we rank the malls in major centres. Next week: Wellington. A note from the editor: This is the hardest ranking we’ve ...49 minutes ago
- The cost of being: A clothes-mad 20-something who walks everywhere
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a 27-year-old apartment-dwelling marketing exec explains her approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Female. Age: 27. Ethnicity: Pākehā. Role: Marketing exec at ...49 minutes ago
- China likely to strengthen regional relationships in response to another Trump term
Opinion: Recent discussions in Shanghai provide some insight into what’s likely to be on the table The post China likely to strengthen regional relationships in response to another Trump term appeared first on Newsroom. ...49 minutes ago - Nuclear winters know no borders
Opinion: The immediate horror of nuclear weapon explosions – the blinding flash, crushing blast wave, and radioactive inferno – is well documented.But what nuclear-armed nations either don’t grasp or won’t admit, is far more chilling: how their weapons could devastate even countries thousands of kilometres from any mushroom clouds.The collapse ...49 minutes ago
- This week’s bestselling books – November 22
FICTION1 Kāwai: Tree of Nourishment by Monty Soutar (David Bateman, $39.99)Sample dialogue, all from one chapter:“That can’t be,” replied Taona doubtfully.“You were right. The pā is unnervingly quiet,” Taona murmured.“The Hākuwai,” Motukia breathed. “Our grandfathers told us they rarely saw the Hākuwai in daylight,” Motukia muttered.“Their fight would have been futile ...49 minutes ago
- Burma the flying elephant
After about two and a half years of planning and waiting, New Zealand’s last elephant has moved to her new home at Monarto Safari Park in South Australia.Burma and her “human herd”, that is, her keepers, arrived last week, and she’s settling in well, according to Auckland Zoo’s Andrew Coers.“Something ...49 minutes ago
- NZ’s membership of Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance in jeopardy
Senior ministers in the coalition suggested NZ’s membership will be re-evaluated if it restarts offshore oil and gas drilling The post NZ’s membership of Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance in jeopardy appeared first on Newsroom. ...49 minutes ago
- Raw Politics: Six months in a leaky Bill
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon did not meet the Treaty Principles Bill hikoi crowd, sees “nothing” of merit in the Act-proposed law but the Parliament his Government dominates will spend six months debating a “divisive” measure.That’s because he has accepted there needs to be “aeration” of people’s views on the Treaty, ...49 minutes ago
- Taken to the brink, Govt is now close to selling big Whakapapa ski field
Bidder Whakapapa Holdings walked away from the sales process last year, but says it’s now ‘95% there’ on a purchase agreement – so who blinked first? The post Taken to the brink, Govt is now close to selling big Whakapapa ski field appeared first on Newsroom. ...49 minutes ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 November
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions.The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...49 minutes ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 22 November
The post Daily crossword, Friday 22 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...49 minutes ago
- Watts nears a landmark deal on global carbon trading
A framework for global carbon trading under the Paris Agreement is finally nearing completion at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan after years of halting talks.Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is one of two ministers tasked by the COP29 hosts with landing a long-sought deal on Article 6 of the climate accord, ...1 hour ago
- Grattan on Friday: Marles plays a defensive bat on nuclear as the government rushes to get though la...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Richard Marles is an ambitious man who hasn’t given up the dream of one day reaching the top job. But, despite being deputy prime minister, his profile is much lower than that of Treasurer Jim ...6 hours ago - NEW POLL: Kiwis Overwhelmingly Support MPs’ Expenses Transparency Law Change
62% of respondents support the extension of the OIA to cover MPs’ spending, compared to just 13% opposed and 24% were unsure. ...8 hours ago - The House: Meanwhile, a week of passing law
The political week has been packed with worthy distractions, but all week Parliament has focused on passing new laws. Here are the highlights. ...9 hours ago - The biggest difference between Hīkoi mō te Tiriti and past hīkoi: More support from non-Māori
Analysis - The diversity of voices during the hīkoi was noticeable - from tangata moana to young immigrants to elderly Pākehā from the South Island. ...9 hours ago
- The House: Samoan citizenship restoration – ‘It means we belong to this land’
When the bill to restore NZ citizenship to some Samoans passed this week, Parliament's galleries were full to the brim with members of the community. ...10 hours ago
- More Delays In Action On Use Of Puberty Blockers With Children
Women’s Rights Party Co-leader Jill Ovens says the Ministry has put New Zealand children at risk by continuing to allow “off-label” prescribing of puberty blockers at far higher rates than other similar countries. ...11 hours ago
- Police Minister adamant he wasn’t aware of gang members training at gun clubs
That is despite two papers from police that raised the matter with him. ...11 hours ago
- Shorten declares himself ‘a proud moderate’, saying Australians ‘in the middle’ shouldn’t ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Bill Shorten has declared himself “a proud moderate” in a valedictory speech declaring parliament has the responsibility to ensure the extremes of left and right do not set the terms of political debate. Shorten, ...12 hours ago
- New ‘best practice’ principles for superannuation products are coming. We asked a panel of exper...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer Studio Romantic/Shutterstock We all know how important it is to save enough money for retirement – but what about spending it wisely when we get there? Even for those who have built up a suitable ...12 hours ago
- Government accused of betraying Kiwis’ trust over lack of consultation on live exports
The government has always vowed to reinstate live exports by sea, which was banned by the previous Labour government. ...12 hours ago
- 7 things you can do if you think you sweat too much
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Freeman, Associate Professor of Dermatology, Bond University ERIK Miheyeu/Shutterstock Sweating is our body’s way of cooling down, a bit like an internal air conditioner. When our core temperature rises (because it’s hot outside, or you’re exercising), sweat glands all ...12 hours ago
- Phenergan for under 6s is now banned due to hallucination fears. Here’s what to use instead
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Professor of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Macquarie University Australia’s drug regulator has issued a safety warning over the medicine Phenergan and related products containing the antihistamine drug promethazine. The Therapeutic Goods Administration said the over-the-counter products should not be given to children ...13 hours ago
- A new stage adaptation of Peter Carey’s Jack Maggs is a delightful homage to theatrical storytelli...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Campbell, Lecturer, Performing Arts, UniSA Creative, University of South Australia Matt Byrne/STCSA Jack Maggs is a delight and a homage to theatrical storytelling in Australia. Based on Peter Carey’s bestselling novel, Jack Maggs follows the ex-convict as he lands ...13 hours ago
- The government has introduced laws for its social media ban. But key details are still missing
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Angus, Professor of Digital Communication, Director of QUT Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Ron Lach/Pexels The federal government today introduced into parliament legislation for its social media ban for people under 16 years. Communications Minister Michelle ...13 hours ago
- Archives NZ, National Library to cut 27 roles
The Department of Internal Affairs wants to bring the two organisations under the joint leadership of the Chief Archivist and National Librarian. ...13 hours ago
- Gang patch ban: Members warn of potential for violence to ‘erupt’ as new laws enforced
"I can't see this lasting unless they have a budget to lock fullas up in jail which I think is absolutely stupid, really it's ludicrous," Ngavii Pekapo, who set up a Mongrel Mob chapter 54 years ago, says. ...13 hours ago
- ACT leader David Seymour raises doubts about Waikato medical school
Government documents show ACT leader David Seymour told the government he was "dissatisfied" with a cost-benefit analysis. ...13 hours ago
- National’s Erica Stanford allegedly calls Labour’s Jan Tinetti a ‘stupid bitchR...
The Education Minister has apologised in Parliament for her remark. ...13 hours ago
- Labour backs new Police Commissioner – but warns against routine arming
The alternative to policing by consent would be a police state, which New Zealanders don't want, the party says. ...15 hours ago
- Youth on boot camp pilot re-offended five weeks after release
Children's Minister Karen Chhour said while it was disappointing, it would naïve to think none of the participants would lapse. ...15 hours ago
- In photos: People of the hīkoi, and why they marched
Hikoi mō Te Tiriti has come to an end, going down in history as the largest march to Parliament in Aotearoa. ...16 hours ago
- ‘Everything is becoming a culture war’: Jon Ronson on conspiracies and cycleways
Ahead of his appearance in Aotearoa, the acclaimed British journalist, podcaster and documentarian talks to Stewart Sowman-Lund about why people are still fascinated by the fringes. The last place I would expect to find Jon Ronson is relaxing in the countryside. The iconic British journalist and writer is best known ...16 hours ago
- Kia kaha Lebanon: NZ media only tell half your story of struggle
The United States has vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution — for the fourth time — in Israel’s war on Gaza, while Hezbollah demands a complete ceasefire and “protection of Lebanon’s sovereignty” in any deal with Israel. Amid the death and devastation, Joe Hendren reflects on his time in ...17 hours ago
- ‘Deserves a Bafta’: After the Party premieres in the UK to five-star reviews
The acclaimed New Zealand drama has just premiered on TV in the United Kingdom, and the five-star reviews are already flowing in. Six months after it was called a “blistering” “tour de force” by Australian critics, and nearly a year since The Spinoff declared it the best drama New Zealand ...17 hours ago
- Drugs are getting cheaper and easier to find in Aotearoa
New Zealanders are drinking and smoking less, but most other recreational drugs are becoming cheaper, more popular and more available, two new reports show. Two significant new surveys about drugs in Aotearoa were released this week, offering a rare insight into New Zealanders’ choice of substances, which ones are becoming ...17 hours ago
- COP29: ‘climate finance’ for the Pacific is mostly loans, saddling small island nations with mor...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Ratuva, Director, Macmillan Brown Centre for Pacific Studies, University of Canterbury Lenora Qereqeretabua, the deputy speaker of Fiji’s Parliament, at the COP29 climate summit. IISD/ENB/Mike Muzurakis, CC BY-SA As this year’s UN climate summit reaches its final stage of negotiations, Pacific ...17 hours ago
- Review: The magic of Wicked and the curse of corporate greed
The new movie musical is undoubtedly a fun watch, but it’s also proof that bigger isn’t always better, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund. Contains minor spoilers for Wicked. There’s no doubt that Wicked is going to be huge. No other pop culture event this year, save from maybe Charli XCX’s Brat, has ...18 hours ago
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Engineer.v. eco-loon ???
Perhaps techno-loon .v. eco-loon?
In all fairness 🙂
Are all comments for this post being moderated before publication? That’s odd!
That’s odd!
My bad; it's been so long since I put up a new post that I ticked a wrong box. All good now I trust, but can you reply here just to check I've applied the right fix please?
Perhaps techno-loon .v. eco-loon?
Fair enough; I just wanted the two words to start with 'e'. And I used the the word 'loon' in it's affectionate sense. (Like when Aussies call you the c-word, and you haven't done anything obvious to piss them off, it means you've entered the matezone.)
All good, but now I can't help by see, "eco-loons and techno-c**** 🙂
Now that's funny.
I sneaked a peek at the thread during the meeting I was at, and burst out laughing most inappropriately
can I question your assumption of population to be 10 billion..?
back in July the bbc reported how birthrates are dropping rapidly..
with most ..if not all countries seeing major drops in population from now..
..with some countries seeing their populations halving…
..this falling birthrate being noticed now is being put down to more women getting educations..and increased use of contraceptive…
how would this eventuality colour your reasonings..?
Good question; yes in many places population has plateaued or is falling. Some quite surprising places like Brazil for instance have an inverted demographic pyramid, and will peak within decades.
But it's Africa where the projections just keep on rising. I really like this site, it's fast and makes the core demographic data extremely accessible. Really worth a few minutes banging about on.
There are a range of scenarios from a high to low, but again the best summary I know is again here at OurWorldInData. Basically as people move to the cities, and move toward modernisation, family size drops precipitously.
Will the future always looks this, while these trends always hold? I don't think anyone knows the long term answer to that question, but these projections look reasonable for the rest of this century.
..one could quite reasonably assume that further education..(formal..or via mobile phone/online..)..will see that rise in women getting educations/using contraception more in those african countries also..
and the ensuing drop in their birthrates also..?
you'd think…?
since finding that out..back in July…
I have accepted that as underlining the fact that the overpopulation thing just isn't going to happen..
and this must affect any plans/thinking etc..?
given that that overpopulation chimera has coloured most thought/attitudes..
has been viewed as a given..
..for as long as I can remember…
The best metaphor I can think of is that collectively humanity has gone through an adolescent growth spurt so spectacular it was easy to think it was going to continue indefinitely.
so…we can park that 10 billion prediction..?
Nope!
The UN Population Division report of 2019 projects world population to continue growing, although at a steadily decreasing rate, and to reach 10.9 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of close to zero.
@t.a..
did you even read the link you posted..?
it confirms that population will level out/drop by 2100..
this due to a precipitous drop in the global birth-rate..
so chrs for backing up what I said..
that the population-bomb..doom!..doom..!
is essentially bullshit..
..and just a distraction from what we have to do to ensure that world is liveable for that population..
..many of whom are being born today..
Of course I read it, and while the quote above confirms a lower birth rate over time, it also states population numbers will continue to grow regardless.
Again "The UN Population Division report of 2019 projects world population to continue growing, although at a steadily decreasing rate, and to reach 10.9 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of close to zero"
The page does state some other projections a bit lower, and they also rely on low total fertility rate, but bet on it falling more rapidly than the UN report.
So while 10 billion isn't guaranteed, it certainly can't be 'parked' either. Understand now?
I'm thinking you're both misreading each other here.
I'm not sure how
Countered with
Can be misread in anyway.
But then these are interesting times.
@ t.a..
the main point is that the population doomsayers.
..predicting growth forever..
..leading to inevitable doom and gloom'…are/were wrong..
that is not going to happen..
understand now..?
Actually, the only point I've commented on, is your 10 Billion population can be parked, which as per the UN projection shows, cannot be taken as certain fact.
The rest is for you to debate, honestly, with that point now made.
Somewhere between 10 and 12b is the most reasonable prediction for the rest of this century.
But it is the business of the future to be a dangerous place …
Haven't read that last link, but Red it's great to see you contributing in long form.
It's good to see your position set out clearly. Some of the comments you have received have been a bit unfair and personal (That's the internet for you).
That research link you provided the other night was especially helpful in that it did provide a sound basis for describing a minimum Decent Living Energy floor (DLE). I was going to link to it, but the PostCarbon Org site I used instead makes a more broad based and comprehensive case.
However the next post I'm planning will endeavour to show that a retreat to even this low DLE is still too much in isolation.
A couple of links to consider
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/09/human-made-materials-now-outweigh-earths-entire-biomass-study
I have a meeting to get to at the moment, but yes both do look highly pertinent …
I'll take a look later.
That SEED's author makes some excellent points about how fundamental energy is to economics and he makes his case well enough.
As a starting point I totally agree, but as he progresses I think he misses something important that I'll try to explore later.
Cheers
I will keep an eye out for your post to see what you think he has missed….I note his argument is the same as that of Susan Krumdieck (and others) albeit in slightly different terms
That's a useful way of thing about it. Some of those 'iron' boundaries are mental as much as they are material – so are possibly more prone to breaking, and not necessarily in a good way.
Are you proposing then, RedLogix, a doubling-down of this " unique, turbulent and astonishing period we have come through", despite saying that "The current industrial path we are on appears to be a literal dead end"?
To be fair to RedLogix, I think that his position is that while reduced consumption might be necessary he doesn't think it will be sufficient by itself. Hence his advocacy of new technology.
Having seen first-hand some repurposing of existing technologies by inventive people from South-East Asia, I don't see that a return to the 1950's is even a possibility; some materials present in the world now are practically indestructible (the blades of diggers etc…) and won't disappear in the event of an economic collapse. New technologies generally emerge from the military complex, we've been repeatedly told, so I'm anxious when faith in those is advocated. What will come with. such thinking? Who will call those shots?
Here's one: biodegradable rat-traps, delivered by drone!
"The current prototype had a small cone, sized between a thimble and a shot glass, just big enough for a rat’s head to fit inside.
When a rat nibbled the bait, a biodegradable elastic band would snap around its neck and quickly strangle it."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/123631385/tiny-biodegradable-rat-traps-can-be-dropped-by-drone-and-leave-no-trace
Brilliant example Robert.
https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2018/01/how-much-energy-do-we-need.html
I would recommend this source for all it's other content with the caveat that some of the thought experiments sometimes go a bit further than is reasonable.
What would it take to build enough zero-carbon electricity to replace the fossil fuels currently used? Let’s do a ten-minute wild-ass guess at that.
The world currently uses energy at the rate of about 18 TW (TW is a trillion watts).
https://ourworldindata.org/energy
That's the primary energy used – ie electricity output from non-fossil generators, plus the chemical energy contained in coal, gas, oil, regardless of where it's used . When fossil fuel is burned for process heat, most of that primary energy goes to its intended purpose of heating. But when it's burned in some sort of heat engine to turn it into electricity or mechanical motion, the efficiency ranges somewhere from 25% to 55%. Considering this loss of energy wouldn't happen if all those mechanical energy users were electrically powered, let's hand-wave and say 10TW of total electricity supply would be needed to replace all primary energy currently used.
Renewable energy costs around USD3 per watt to build, for a rough hand-wavy number for the sake of argument, allowing for 3x overbuild in capacity to allow for intermittency. Nukes around USD6 per watt to build.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
So, really rough order of magnitude guess, building enough zero carbon electricity generation to supply all of humanity's current energy use would be in the range of of 30 to 60 trillion US dollars. Plus the cost to change over to electricity all the machines that currently burn dino-juice. Call it another 30 to 60 trillion. 60 to 120 trillion USD to get ourselves to zero-carbon worldwide.
Current global GDP is around 85 trillion. Put 10% of global efforts to getting to zero-emissions, and we'd be there in somewhere around a decade.
With World War 2 level mobilisation and sense of urgency, it looks doable.
Now we're talking.
There's still a paradigm shift required around 'reasonable consumption', where ecological literacy and the continued deification of the lifestyles of the rich and famous are problematic to environmental and social progress.
Clean energy for all would be an incredibly good springboard to launch a brave new future – for all.
Nukes around USD6 per watt to build.
They used to be around the USD1 per watt, but this has been greatly inflated by a range of 'soft costs' over the past few decades. Mostly because building massive 'one off' plants as site builds entails a whole range of commercial and project management risks.
The good news is that everyone innovating in this space is totally aware that if a 4th gen nuclear tech is ever to be useful, the price has to be under that of coal/gas and solar. The critical innovation to achieve will be to build smaller standard designs in a factory, and then ship them to where they're needed.
What's your take on China's fusion project?
Sorting out hype from reality is always hard with China, but my guess is that they're not as far advanced as they'd like us to think they are, but at the same time they've made a lot of progress they don't want us to really know about.
Especially in military applications. For instance I've seen informed speculation around a molten salt fission based nuclear submarine being far more advanced than the search engines will readily show.
They know they are terribly exposed to disruption of Middle East oil supplies and are highly motivated to reduce this.
Thanks RL. It seemed to me a combo of vanity project but also some blue sky type research which I always appreciate.
'Exposed to disruption' – good point, justification enough to run with such projects.
"This leaves us with two broad options; the most popular is the idea that we might retreat a little, downsize our consumption habits to somewhere around the developed world in the 1950’s."
The problem with this proposal is that unless the seemingly-ingrained human need to "improve" their circumstances, no matter what those circumstances are, will lead to the same "progress" that brought us to this point; a re-set to a less-destructive state will only be of value if somehow we are able to rein-in our rapaciousness, hence my call for a "change of heart", a re-culturing that results in a secure and accepted way of being for humans that holds discretion as the highest ideal. We have to learn a number of things for this to work; a sense of scale, a sense of responsibility, a reverence for everything and everyone on the outside of our own skin.
Cambridge Analytica did a survey on how Americans think many wanted to go back to the fifties when men were men and Women knew their place .
hence my call for a "change of heart",
Yes, this is essential too.
And again if we look back over the past 200 years, consider how much 'change of heart' we have already undertaken. This is very encouraging.
Because while we always carry with us the biological scripts our physical bodies have inherited from millions of years of evolution, I firmly reject the idea that 'human nature' is fixed and irredeemable. Quite the contrary, we demonstrate a remarkable capacity to adapt our desires and behaviours to changed circumstances.
" I firmly reject the idea that 'human nature' is fixed and irredeemable. Quite the contrary, we demonstrate a remarkable capacity to adapt our desires and behaviours to changed circumstances."
Agreed. Who has, or which culture has, the best "take" on what "human nature" is, do you think, RedLogix?
Good question, but forgive me for proffering an answer beyond the acceptable bounds of what is a political forum.
Let me just say this much; the unity of the human race is the core moral challenge of our particular era. Everything else flows from this.
Indeed. What do you see as the essential beliefs that unify the human race at this point in time?
Betterment and eating.
Complicated by bettering our eating, leading to obesity, ridiculous trade set-ups, the extinction of tasty-but-frivilous species, cruelty to animals and a whole raft of other abominations; our stomachs rule our heads and are causing the destruction of the other-than-stomach world!
So … if we downsize back to the 1950's will we bring back Mark One Zephyrs?
Asking for a friend (who wants one) .. or will we get electric Ford Prefects?
I yearn for winklepickers!
Be great to have the kinky knee high boots for us girls again…. 😮
White Beatle-boots?
Yeah, baby!
can we all smoke ciggies again..?
but seriously…there is no way people will 'go back'.….
dunno what the destination will be like…
..but we always move 'forward'..
..be it to a dystopia..(economic/environmental)
..or a more enlightened future ..
.we can get this sorted..
..but not by continuing doing things the way we do now…that much is certain..
the victorians had absolutely no idea of what the future held..
..and neither do we..
all we can do is make wild guesses..
..and agitate for what needs doing..that is right under our noses..
We are going back PU. Our society is abandoning the concepts that have driven many people to sacrifice their lives to improve conditions for others and to bring in changes that keep out the darkness that threatens the human soul. We have regressed and it seems to me that we are back to about the 1960s in our thoughts and behaviours.
The wokeness of the present parallels the flower power of the past, the search for different gender identity matches the cults that would suck in young people and then entrap them so that they had to be kidnapped and be deprogrammed for their parents to once again be part of their children's lives.
Feminism was trying to break through barriers of prejudice; in the USA agitation for a break from the racial superiority arrogantly applied by whites was continuing and some breakthrough achieved but with immense courage from those forcing it.
In NZ we slowly pulled away in the 1960s but even in the 1970s there were shameful examples of racism and disrespecting women.
We have gone backwards. But not in the way we need most, and that is to a simpler life and less posing and pouting about how great our homes are, with every mod con. And we need to model this approach. Robert and his family are one example. Perhaps we can start keeping a note of those who have managed to change their lives around and keep them in a group, not necessarily under their own names which could put them in the spotlight, but with details and some images of how to go about it. Not preachy, but showing others that it can be done, and have ideas that can be followed for those wanting to make a start, from which they will expand. If there is a site on-line, to make it easily accessible, perhaps we can make a note of it here, and curate all those that come forward. Give them feedback too.
@ grey..
would you have been considered to be a straight..back then..?
how was your sixties..?
I'm trying to be objective here. It is a societal thing and I'm not personalising it, though I can bring memories of the time to the comment. This is a big thing, and needs an overview of what is happening.
aww..!….c'mon..!
just a quick snapshot..
grey in the sixties..
it isn’t a crime to have been a straight..
Nah – but you can tuck 'em behind your ear, if you wanna be cool.
must be lucky strike..(unfiltered..of course..!)
All I'm reading is 'engineers made the world great, and eco-terrorists want to destroy it'.
Straight out of the ACT party manifesto.
Oh dear. The engineer's practical view – I thought that might happen so I haven't perused it. There is so much to think about just now. One thing I know is there won't be an easy answer, and engineering won't save us from nature unrestrained. I did put up a link yesterday showing the underground caves fashioned about 900 BC in Cappadocia, Turkey. You had to watch your engineering there and ensure there were enough columns as the soft rock they hacked into could collapse. But they did pretty well in those supposedly primitive times.
But they did pretty well in those supposedly primitive times.
I tend to think of our ancient ancestors as tough and smart people; they survived in a very difficult world and achieved many remarkable things given the limits they had to live with.
There is of cause the question whether nature will rectify what is currently a mismatch of development of technology and size of population to nourish. If, for instance the disappearance of the rain forest is continuing at the current rate, we don't need to think about any of this because the decision has been made….by sheer greed.