Just One Term

Written By: - Date published: 9:06 am, December 2nd, 2023 - 74 comments
Categories: Environment, greens, health, labour, nicola willis, Shane Reti, simeon brown, transport, uncategorized, water - Tags:

There is every reason to believe National will be chucked out in 2026.

It is lazy thinking to presume that because National were in for 9 years the last three times, that it has to happen again. Comparing Luxon to Key or Bolger is like comparing a pebble to a mountain.

Go into any pharmacy and ask the pharmacist if people are happy with the reintroduced $5 prescription charges or the risk they are now placed in having to store quantities of pseudoephedrine.

Ministers Ciga-Reti and Nicotine Willis defending tax cuts partly funded by tobacco use sustained at a higher population rate, has revealed their cold calculus. Luxon’s fact-free claims about ram raid increases caused by future tobacco retail constraints were simply lies.

No doubt the new Minister of Finance will have her day ‘opening the books’. Works for a week every new government.  But once she has to present her very, very, very mini-budget and front up to her own work, Robertson will quickly turn the tables. To see a real mini-budget, check the welfare policies implemented by December 2017 under Labour.

In transport, Minister Brown’s hasty push to kill off the Auckland fuel tax has left him in the unfortunate position of having to figure out where he and NZTA and Auckland Transport are going to get the funding to continue the Eastern Busway, which is upwards of $1.4 billion and currently, contractually, under construction.

The National coalition repealing the new Resource Management Act legislation that Labour spent six years consulting and drafting on simply leaves all the previous 20 years of litigation precedent set in place. There are many environmental groups very quietly celebrating the impending return of the full Resource Management Act, which has complex and onerous effects-based legislation that has delayed and softened thousands of major landscape-altering developments. Stupidly, with no replacement drafted, the default is the previous legislation.

Similar will occur for the newly amalgamated Polytechs, disestablished back to the entities they were in before. This finds the new Minister for Tertiary education having to face the same crises Labour faced in financial instability and regional shrinking. With Labour establishing Te Pukenga, and National disestablishing it, Labour will remind us of the foolishness of antidisestablishmentarianism (not a term that’s been in vogue since to court of George IV).

Then there’s all councils preparing LTPs with crippling 10%+ multi-year rate rises because there is no alternative to the Three Waters National has swept away.

I haven’t even got to climate change and our national policy positions in the COP 28 round.

Multiple  portfolio areas in a mess and they’ve only been sworn in a week.

There is every chance that once the initial charge of repealing the Acts and forming Budget 2024 at the first half of next year, they will struggle to do anything except wade through policy and legislative and funding shit of their own making.

Those items that are positively on the coalition agreements such as the 12 new Roads of National Significance and the projects to emanate from the new regional development funding, will each take a decade to start and several more years to finish.

The fast burn on their popularity will be swift and hard: sure in the 2023 election you could fill a stadium with people trying to tear something down and barely fill a public urinal with people trying to make something happen, but then the first national crisis hits and everyone asks the simple question: is Luxon really a leader or just a mid-order retail manager? We’ll all find that out in the first storm to hit. National’s coalition is unstable and Labour’s team are crisis match fit like you wouldn’t believe. That will show before the camera just as it will show in Parliament.

Labour and Greens need to concentrate their efforts so that this lot are only in power for one term and no more. That means more united policy positions, more united marches, and a whole bunch more fundraising so they are ready to fight and win a new election.

The question, beyond the first year of government, is not what you are against, but what you are for. Those simple ‘are we heading in the right direction’ survey questions will take a year and enjoy the tax cuts. But then you have to actually have a direction.

Reality is already hitting and the tax cuts haven’t even arrived. There was no honeymoon. There’s every chance of a quick public opinion divorce.

Kick this lot out in just one term.

74 comments on “Just One Term ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Robert Guyton 1
    2 December 2023 at 9:36 am

    They've hoovered-up the cooker vote.

    Those various movements haven't been cauterised, their infection is spreading further into the healthy tissue of society. I hear Q-individuals from the healthy-eating quarter defending the smoking issue.

    Daft.

    • CharlieB 1.1
      2 December 2023 at 9:58 am

      “Those various movements haven't been cauterised, their infection is spreading further into the healthy tissue of society”

      This is crucial to understanding how close we are to some sort of repeat of a violent outcome. The culture of the self is of deeply imbedded we're already seeing all sorts of toxic individuality appearing under the assertion of "my personal rights"..

      National is still playing into this idea of appealing to the fringes.. Bomber has called them the "lumpenproletariat" which is kind of accurate.. Seeing Bishop trying to justify their support or lack of criticism of Winstons allegations of government funded media corruption by qualifying that as listening to peoples concerns is just about some of the worst populist spin I have seen in a long long time. They can't surly be that naive?

    • James Thrace 1.2
      2 December 2023 at 11:08 am

      Instead of Q-individuals why not

      Qindividuals

      Indiquiduals

      Inquiduals

  2. Ghostwhowalks 2
    2 December 2023 at 9:40 am

    Good points . However the Auckland Fuel tax collection exceeded the Regional transport projects spending ( it was deliberate). So I dont think the contracts already let will have much trouble being funded as they proceed ( unless theres costs blowouts)

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/more-than-300m-in-auckland-fuel-tax-unspent/4RSZEB7RPNH5VFZ6LVRC26UW5I/

    • Ad 2.1
      2 December 2023 at 5:27 pm

      The new minister confirmed on RNZ on Thursday that after his talks with Mayor Brown he is having to get urgent advice on funding for existing projects that were relying on this funding.

      Cyclone patch-ups have caused massive overspend on that fund now.

      Also the NZTA books are stuffed. Rooted. Both medium term as RUC and petrol taxes no longer keep up with transport demand, and short term as post-Gabrielle repairs suck up and eat everything otherwise nailed down. Even the reallocation of funding from the Waitemata Cycleway to Eastern Corridor wasn't enough to save the blowout there.

      This will be part of Willis' 'reveal'.

      Also the CRL isn't gong to open until 2026 now, so as a result of this sustained and massive over-run Auckland Council who were relying on that regional funding are also sucking their projects dry. Their AT CE has confirmed that there will be no new cycleways for the foreseeable future.

      The resulting AC blowout is why the AC Head of Finance resigned this week.

      Auckland is about to go backwards at a fast rate of knots, mostly due to this funding being killed off. And National has no plan for it.

    • adam 2.2
      2 December 2023 at 6:52 pm

      ( unless theres costs blowouts)

      Come on it's a Tory government – cost blow out is their middle name.

  3. Bearded Git 3
    2 December 2023 at 10:08 am

    Ian Taylor already realises he has probably made a mistake by voting National. There must be a lot of other people thinking the same.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/301019123/sir-ian-taylor-the-unintended-consequences-of-the-new-government

    Anyone who was paying the slightest attention to the campaign should have realised that Luxon wasn't up to it.

    (I now see that BWag has posted similar comments in Open Mike today)

    • SPC 3.1
      2 December 2023 at 10:32 am

      There was comment here in response to his pre election article.

      https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13-10-2023/#comment-1972330

    • Grey Area 3.2
      2 December 2023 at 4:37 pm

      I'm staggered Ian Taylor was so naive or lacking in the ability to judge people and their character/motives/intentions.

      He voted National "because, despite not agreeing with everything that was being proposed, I believed that we were about to see a government that would be open to working transparently alongside innovative Kiwi companies and organisations like I Am Hope, the NZ Product Accelerator and the many others out there who have tirelessly devoted themselves to trying to improve key areas such as education, health, sustainability, global warming, child poverty and countless other areas where we have seen Aotearoa New Zealand slide down the world rankings from positions we once proudly lead the world in."

      It puzzles me how he came to that conclusion. What indications were there that National would lead a government that would improve the key areas "where we have seen Aotearoa New Zealand slide down the world rankings from positions we once proudly lead the world in".

      I can see how people were taken in by the snake oil salesman but the deodorant salesman?

      At least he's owning up to buyer's remorse.

    • Ad 3.3
      2 December 2023 at 4:43 pm

      Shoutout to Bearded Git for the post idea.

    • Sandra Le Cron 3.4
      3 December 2023 at 5:47 pm

      Quite right BG. People just wanted change and voted carelessly. I think a lot of people will inwardly echo Ian Taylor's position. This government may not last full term, with turmoil,cast outs, bi-elections, etc playing a part as they often do. Exciting times !

      • Bearded Git 3.4.1
        4 December 2023 at 10:41 am

        The interesting thing is that Taylor says he has voted for National "only" 3 times in his life. Once is a mistake, twice is idiotic, three times is a right winger.

        My guess is that he has also voted for NZF and TOP. He gives no indication that at any time he has voted Labour or Green or how many times. He probably loved Douglas, Caygill and Prebble and may have voted Labour then.

  4. Pat 4
    2 December 2023 at 10:19 am

    Predicting the future is always fraught.

    As we discovered with the 2017 Labour led administration what is mooted at the beginning of a new administration is not necessarily what transpires.

    Time will tell.

    • observer 4.1
      2 December 2023 at 2:23 pm

      You're right, governments have to respond to events we can't predict. Ardern wasn't expecting to deal with a pandemic, terrorist attack, etc.

      When she did she got 50% of the vote. Perhaps Luxon has hidden talents that would make him a good leader in a crisis.

      But those talents are really well hidden. Invisible, in fact.

  5. Tony Veitch 5
    2 December 2023 at 10:56 am

    Well, we laughed at Britain for electing Boris (and in parenthesis Liz) and Australia being saddled with Scotty from Marketing; we were aghast at Trump’s antics in the USA and Bolsanaro’s stupidity in Brazil and so on!

    But now we face the nightmarish reality of our own right wing, poorly qualified fuckwit in Luxon (with a lot of help from Winnie and David).

    We, the left, must unite to do two things (IMO):

    first, push Labour more to the left and in better alignment with the Greens and TPM and

    secondly, work hard to get rid of the present abomination!

    Though, IMO, they’ll self destruct well within the present term! Here’s hoping!

    • Adrian 5.1
      2 December 2023 at 4:42 pm

      If you do that Tony you only take votes off the Greens and TPM that is no way to power, the leverage percentage needed is the dithering middle, the waverers and the Ian Taylors and the '" We didnt know how lucky were cohort ". There is no lost left vote between Lab and Green/TPM. Its that simple.

      • Grey Area 5.1.1
        3 December 2023 at 8:11 am

        Good points. But I still feel the opposition needs to be more unified. Labour needs to understand the political landscape has changed and they need to work credibly with the Greens and TPM and not see themselves at the head of the table.

        Labour needs to be part of the solution. That seems to me to be hard to do if they remain neoliberals. That way they remain Nactional Lite.

        • Dennis Frank 5.1.1.1
          3 December 2023 at 9:25 am

          However that would require Labour folk to think intelligently. Since when have we ever seen that happen?

          So the prospect of Labour learning from experience remains pallid. A resilient economy is a good idea. Consequently Labour have refused to switch from the neoliberal one to it. How many Labour arses would you have to boot simultaneously to get the required result? With Hipkins unable to think it, no point waiting for a captain's call to deliver that boot.

      • Ad 5.1.2
        3 December 2023 at 8:33 am

        +100 Adrian

  6. roblogic 6
    2 December 2023 at 11:00 am

    The coalition of cancer was elected on a platform of lies misinformation and fearmongering so I expect the propaganda to be weaponised. Winston is likely to undermine media independence and start a hate campaign against RNZ/TVNZ and either dismantle their newsrooms or fill them with cookers and rightwing shills

    • Anne 6.1
      2 December 2023 at 11:51 am

      On The Nation this morning Erica Stanford gave away how this National led government propose to handle next week's question times.

      They have been rabbiting on about "opening the books" and finding the fiscal state of the country in a terrible mess. They are going to respond to every question by the Opposition parties with mis and disinformation about what they claim they found. We'll never see any real evidence of course because it is bullshit.

      The upshot… there will be a media stoush about who is right and who is wrong and who is telling the truth and who isn't.

      I hope the Labour caucus are aware of what they plan to do.

      • Ghostwhowalks 6.1.1
        2 December 2023 at 12:04 pm

        Yes. The books were opened just before the last election… 12 th Sept

        https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-2023

        I guess the annual $2 bill funding to the Cullen Fund for future Super payments will be cancelled by Xmas too.
        Annual Kiwisaver subsidy ($997 mill) for the chop alongside Winter Energy payment ($519 mill)

        One strange item in Treasurys accounts , it treats Lottery prize payments ($810 mill ) as an expense, when of course the lotterys Board is self funding and has considerable surplus from the sale of tickets)

      • Gabby 6.1.2
        3 December 2023 at 11:13 am

        We are going to hear 'preevislabagummint' manymanymany times over the next 3 years.

    • bwaghorn 6.2
      2 December 2023 at 3:47 pm

      The coalition of cancer

      Knarly dude knarly, !!

  7. Mike the Lefty 7
    2 December 2023 at 11:18 am

    The people that campaigned against Three Waters will be moaning their asses off when they examine their rates bills after three years of National's alternative policy of doing nothing.

  8. AB 8
    2 December 2023 at 11:42 am

    It's the result of right-wing identity politics – the aggressive re-assertion of the primacy of maleness and whiteness. These emotions are always incautious and they come with an absurd over-confidence base on an assumed mastery of 'commonsense'.

  9. Louis 9
    2 December 2023 at 12:28 pm

    Advantage and Ad, are they two different people?

  10. James Noble 10
    2 December 2023 at 12:28 pm

    Only the richwhites and landlords will "enjoy" the tax cuts.

    They're not big enough to make a difference – and thanks to inflation, the "fiscal drag" means actual working People will be paying more tax under National in 2026 than they are paying today.

    But I fear you underestimate the level of racism, bribery, rent-seeking, and pandering this government is capable of: indeed they're capable of nothing more. But that worked for Muldoon — and Labour is still blamed (or credited) today for doing what they absolutely had to do to clean up Muldoon's mess.

  11. Cricklewood 11
    2 December 2023 at 12:33 pm

    Prescriptions are still free as they were before the law change at both pharmacies closest to me. Also looking forward to have some cold flu medication that actually works as well.

  12. Barfly 12
    2 December 2023 at 12:34 pm

    2025? Do you mean 2026?

    [You are presumably right. I will change – MS]

    • Kat 12.1
      2 December 2023 at 12:48 pm

      2025 is long enough……..

      • Dennis Frank 12.1.1
        2 December 2023 at 1:13 pm

        I suspect Winston will soon start to think so too, if Lux copies Hipkins & issues a random captain's call. In response to Nat insiders demanding he exhibit spine & push Winston's free speech button. Yes they are that stupid. 🙄

        • Kat 12.1.1.1
          2 December 2023 at 5:43 pm

          Historically, or hysterically, we could be witnessing the exciting implosion of right wing representation…….this coalition ship of fools certainly has its fair share of loose cannons…..

  13. Jack 13
    2 December 2023 at 1:29 pm

    Just one term assumes there is a credible opposition. This week the main opposition party named a top 10 line up comprising the same old hacks the country has already seen and rejected less than two months ago.

    If you think those failures are going to be back in government in 2026, I’d say ya dreaming and / or incredibly gullible.

    • Jack 13.1
      2 December 2023 at 2:01 pm

      On reflection I should more correctly replace the word “main” with “an”.

    • Ghostwhowalks 13.2
      2 December 2023 at 2:15 pm

      You mean play the same game as the Nationals , 5 leaders in 5 years .

      That should work…yeah right.

      The puppet masters Bishop and Willis were behind the Muller coup which removed Bridges. Look at them now !
      We have seen how Luxon said he would operate coalition negotiations, more efficiently, quicker and out of the spotlight than previously.
      Nah, nah and hah as he was monstered by Seymour and Peters

    • observer 13.3
      2 December 2023 at 2:17 pm

      The first part of your comment is true enough, the opposition need to be electable (though not surprisingly I disagree with your conclusion).

      But more to the point, there is a common thread in nearly all responses from (broadly) the right-leaning voters commenting on the Standard. They are "but Labour, but Labour". Barely a word about Luxon.

      That is very revealing. In 2008 the chorus from National voters was positive praise for John Key. By comparison, the praise for Luxon since the election is … missing.

      The support for "Not Labour" might continue. But the support for Luxon is melting.

      • JeremyB 13.3.1
        4 December 2023 at 4:53 pm

        I've noticed this almost everywhere.
        Never a positive, just "but labour would have…"

  14. Patricia Bremner 14
    2 December 2023 at 2:44 pm

    Let us hope if they, Luxon Peters Seymore fall out, buyer's remorse may see them struggle to get back. Their spiteful destructive backroom power trading has laid bare their lack of moral fiber greed and arrogance for all to see. Public figures are laying it out.

  15. observer 15
    2 December 2023 at 3:06 pm

    Right now the government's best hope is Christmas. They don't want to "hit the ground running" (it's too late), they want the voters to hit the beach resting. Forget about politics for a while.

    The basic question is always: do politicians learn from their mistakes? If Luxon does, then he can re-start in Feb.

    Unfortunately there is not much indication that he learns from his mistakes, or even understands that he's made them.

    • bwaghorn 15.1
      2 December 2023 at 3:54 pm

      Feb?

      I thought clutson was cutting his annual holiday in te puke back to mid January??

    • Grey Area 15.2
      2 December 2023 at 5:28 pm

      “Unfortunately there is not much indication that he learns from his mistakes, or even understands that he's made them.”

      Classic! laugh

      • Anne 15.2.1
        2 December 2023 at 6:41 pm

        Talking of classics, this morning's The Nation was amusing. Didn't make it to the end but they were interviewing various high profile journos and commentators at their Xmas function. Josie Pagani was one of them of course. Listening to her and several others presenting the new govt. as "having made a good start" and agreeing that "Luxon was definitely the star performer of the campaign" was mind boggling. Talk about scrambling up the greasy pole….

        • Kat 15.2.1.1
          2 December 2023 at 6:59 pm

          They get bonus points for using certain words and terminology……

          Its all presented like game show spin Anne….and btw… I am up 4 on spot the troll….

          • Anne 15.2.1.1.1
            2 December 2023 at 8:27 pm

            One of the signs is when they go on and on about being "left" or "centre". Remember Mr Chairman? Claimed he was to the left of most of us. He outed himself in the end and disappeared.

        • Grey Area 15.2.1.2
          2 December 2023 at 7:35 pm

          Pagani said she was speaking "from the left". Left of what? From the far right?

          She gets trotted out as the token left voice because it suits the media as pseudo balance. She has once lately made a pertinent comment but then returns to her usual routine. She says Luxon has been looking assured when anyone with a brain and a pair of eyes knows that's not true.

          Repeat talking points, ignore difficult questions or simply walk away. That's assured?

          She is a waste of space.

  16. aj 16
    2 December 2023 at 8:53 pm

    "Restless Luxon takes the reins"

    Don't bother reading this article unless you need to be reminded that National still has parts of the media licking it's boots.

    https://www.thepost.co.nz/a/nz-news/350122742/restless-luxon-takes-reins?utm_source=stuff_website&utm_medium=stuff_referral&utm_campaign=mh_stuff&utm_id=mh_stuff

    • outofbed 16.1
      3 December 2023 at 2:49 pm

      You did warn me. So much arse licking in that article that the taste in my mouth is almost the same as the authors

  17. Populuxe1 17
    3 December 2023 at 3:32 pm

    Quite likely, but it will be because Winston throws his toys 18 months in when he has to hand over to Seymour, not for any other reason. The common wisdom that voters don't do single term governments in this country still holds.

    • observer 17.1
      3 December 2023 at 6:34 pm

      It holds, but it is very difficult to draw any solid conclusions in the MMP era. We've only had 3 cases so far. Each first-term government was led by a "conservative" PM (meaning not right-wing, but cautious and incremental) and 2020 was a one-off. And each of those 3 PMs was at least politically competent.

      This government is built on contradictions, more so than any government since 1996, and the PM is in the Shipley class (at best). Of course they have the option of an internal change within National, and I'd say that's a good bet. Nobody wants to go down with the captain of a one-term ship.

      The last new government under FPP lost 12% over 3 years and would have been a one-term government under MMP. Luxon may be taking us back to the 1990s in a way he did not intend.