Latest Roy Morgan Poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, December 13th, 2014 - 120 comments
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Roy Morgan December 2014

The final Roy Morgan poll for the year is out.

I know that we should look at trends, that one poll of itself is not evidence of anything and that sampling error and all other sorts of anomalies should always be taken into account.  But this poll provides a bit of Christmas cheer for Labour and its supporters.

Labour is up 3% to 27% and National is down 3.5% to 46%.  What is strange is that confidence that New Zealand is heading in the right direction has soared.  Normally an increase in confidence would result in an increase in support for the Governing party.  But we live in unusual times.

The Greens are down to 12.5% and NZ First up slightly on 7%.  The result suggests that things are very close.

National will hope that it can ride out the effects of dirty politics and that the dire portents for the economy do not eventuate, or that at least people’s attention can be diverted.  But for now Labour supporters can quietly be confident that things are on the improve.

120 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan Poll ”

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  1. Colonial Rawshark 1
    13 December 2014 at 7:58 am

    Labour is up 3% to 27% and National is down 3.5% to 46%. What is strange is that confidence that New Zealand is heading in the right direction has soared.

    Sounds like a cyclical change which people recognise has little to do with government action; also that 2014 has passed without any too severe calamity. We are not sending troops to war, there hasn’t been another full scale natural disaster, petrol is a few cents cheaper.

    People want some time off, and at last the end of the year is here.

    What does strike me as a little strange however is the bad news pouring out of the dairy industry doesn’t seem to have dented peoples optimism.

    • Chooky 1.1
      13 December 2014 at 1:06 pm

      CR +100…and “the bad news pouring out of the dairy industry doesn’t seem to have dented peoples optimism”

      …it will take time before people realise how serious this is …Farmers magazines are full of it….farmers realise it ….but it has yet to hit local retailers and NZers in general via the msm .

      …if I were a dairy farmer i would be asking why Fonterra is not trading dairy products with Russia and getting a bloody good price …why should farmers struggle and go to the wall when there is a very good long term buyer for dairy products in Russia and at a good price?..it is fucking stupid!
      …European dairy and agriculture is banned by Russia (to counter the USA inspired economic ban on Russia)…but Russia has NOT banned New Zealand dairy!

      • Lanthanide 1.1.1
        13 December 2014 at 4:06 pm

        “but Russia has NOT banned New Zealand dairy!”

        As far as I know, we are still selling to them.

        The point which you seemed to have missed, is that all of the diary that Europe used to sell to Russia, now is sitting around on the market and needs to be sold to someone else. In other words, supply has increased substantially, so prices must fall. That’s what’s happening.

        • Chooky 1.1.1.1
          13 December 2014 at 5:54 pm

          @ Lanthanide …of course there is a glut of dairy in Europe because they cant sell to Russia …but NZ can! ….but has been asked NOT to….meanwhile Brazil and Latin America are selling much more dairy product to Russia …New Zealand farmers should also!

          “Mr Key also revealed that although New Zealand has not officially imposed trade sanctions on Russia, government officials had called in Fonterra and other companies to ask them not to exploit the gap left in the Russian market…

          Fonterra general manager of trade strategy Robb Stevens yesterday confirmed the Government “has asked agricultural exporters, including Fonterra, to show restraint and not take advantage of the restrictions imposed on other nations”.

          http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11359580

          http://rt.com/business/190260-brazil-begins-dairy-exports-russia/

          • Colonial Rawshark 1.1.1.1.1
            13 December 2014 at 5:57 pm

            So much for free trade and getting a good deal for Kiwi farmers LOL

            • Chooky 1.1.1.1.1.1
              13 December 2014 at 6:02 pm

              seems like a case of sheep brain….but that would be an insult to sheep who know where the grass is greenest

              • greywarshark …
                13 December 2014 at 10:59 pm

                You have been keeping up with this Russian situation Chooky. Good thinking.
                This is the result of having close relations with the USA through Key the Janus PM. Or Colossus of the Pacific. one foot in NZ, the other in Hawaii (USA) What USA and compliant Europe want is more important than our country’s finances.

                Here is an extract from the book written about the genesis of the NZ dairy industry.includingthe entrepreneurial and pragmatic dealings with the Russians to get to sell our dairy goods there.
                http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/book-extract-till-cows-came-home-part-1-hold-holiday-review-dc-150320

                • Clemgeopin …
                  13 December 2014 at 11:31 pm

                  In my opinion, one of the serious mistake we are doing is selling the best breeds of cows to china, instead of selling only meat and dairy products.

                  • Colonial Rawshark …
                    14 December 2014 at 12:17 am

                    Selling our future for short term profit. The Chinese will think us stupid. I’m sure our dairy industry knows what it is doing, selling its competitive advantages for a couple of bob.

                    • Clemgeopin …
                      14 December 2014 at 12:33 am

                      I think so too.
                      If many countries too wise up and begin to import our choice cows, we will soon run out of enough countries, especially the big ones, having the need to import lots of our meat or dairy products from us. Then what? Sell goats and BS?

                • Chooky …
                  14 December 2014 at 9:03 am

                  thanks Greywarshark….very interesting!… I particularly liked the bit about Walding and his shoes…and this: “Prime Minister Norman Kirk had believed there were good markets for New Zealand in the Soviet Union and China and had set Walding loose on both”….Kirk was very forward thinking

                  ….seems like the Labour Governments can get better deals for New Zealand dairy farmers than John Key Nactional

                  ….and also looks like New Zealand has had good trading relations with Russia in the past…sure as hell better than going to the wall if you are a dairy farmer

                  • greywarshark …
                    14 December 2014 at 6:49 pm

                    @ Chooky
                    The book on dairy does make it clear what a troublesome thing for us it was when UK joined the Eurozone. Our regular and certain exports to them were a staple. I remember National’s John Marshall going to Brit to negotiate on our behalf to ensure that we weren’t abandoned. I have found it interesting that France went in trailing her colonies and territories behind. But perhaps we were too separate at that stage for this to apply to us.

                    And the fight we had to get our product into markets so this free market thing was pushed. But we would have been better to set up more bilaterals like we did with Russia than drop all barriers. How can you play strip poker when you come to the table with no clothes right from the start?

                    A bit of independence from NACTs to foreign relations would be good, Not wearing out our clothes from sliding along the floor to genuflect to the western powers who are busy f..ing the world over. Every nation is looking for advantage and we need to understand what the base lines are for the major ‘players’. Let’s learn other languages besides English. Many NZ doing business in China don’t speak Mandarin I am sure, Japanese, Russian, Spanish is useful and the Scandinavian languages to give us a different western view. More concentration on languages, and their tikanga and we will have wider vision and better diplomatic successes.

                    Incidentally, and off the subject, I found a children’s book written by PM John Marshall the other day. About a very adventurous child traveller going out from NZ and discovering the world. Start of our OE trips then. Can you imagine yek writing similar?

                • b waghorn …
                  14 December 2014 at 1:13 pm

                  ‘One foot in nz one in Hawaii ‘ leads to a new name for key
                  “Salty Penis” ( stolen from ‘the power of one’)

          • Foreign waka 1.1.1.1.2
            14 December 2014 at 10:38 am

            Mr Key’s comment just shows that he is pointing finger, forgetting that 4 digits point at himself. How can such statement not be a political interference in trade? But TTPA is OK?

          • RedBaronCV 1.1.1.1.3
            14 December 2014 at 11:22 am

            And did Fonterrra GM Robb Stevens bother to ask the farmer owners of Fonterra if that was okay with them? Or did he just do a deal on his own say so with the government. Talk about a Nact government violating individual property rights (and of those who voted for them). Buyer remorse in the blue electorates?

    • aerobubble 1.2
      13 December 2014 at 1:47 pm

      The first piece of legislation introduced by Key was… …the giant tax cut for the richest, cuts to spending, rise in debt, and raising gst. This raise the amount tax that came from lower and middle income earners, and gave farmers a carbon free tax time, and property speculators tax cuts. So imagine wht voters trust John Key, since Labour does, the media does, everyone loves Key. Trust Key he’s put us on the path of growth by taxing middle and lower NZ. You cant suddenly surprise people with the truth or even a lie, you need to lay down context. Dairy got to borrow off a boom in China, while its oil inputs was subsidized by a high NZ dollat, while its competition could not borrow, without paying for its pollution unlike its competitors both in discharges into rivers and carbon tax relief.
      So lets get this straight, Labour have a window to start talking or continue buying into the crap that is John Key, a giant scam to boom dairy for a decade then leave a mess in the rivers, on the balance sheets and in the tax system. John Key played us all, why else did he need the most advanced dirty political machine running, because obviously he knew what he was doing from day one.

      • aerobubble 1.2.1
        13 December 2014 at 1:51 pm

        Voters are not turning to Labour, Key is still 20 percentage in the lead. Voters will continue to trust Labour, the media, who seem all to comfortable with the status quo. Like backing Dunne back, Labour isn’t angry enough, keen enough, righteous about the damage Key is doing.

        • aerobubble 1.2.1.1
          13 December 2014 at 1:56 pm

          Big oil has been storing up a war chest off the high oil price (russia wastes it on war) now with bankers calling in on alternative energy schemes, whose books look wonky in the light of cheap oil. And like many of our dairy debtors. Will move in and start buying cheap. Welcome to capitalism, its not about the invisible hand as it should be, its about government failing to keep big money from buying out the innovaters.

          • Chooky 1.2.1.1.1
            13 December 2014 at 3:34 pm

            @aerobubble..re oil and Russia…”Big oil has been storing up a war chest off the high oil price (russia wastes it on war)”

            Looks like Russian oil pipeline has been boycotted by Europe and so now Russia will be selling it to China and Asia…whether the boycott of Russia will eventually hurt Russia the most or Europe …only time will tell…

            http://rt.com/shows/crosstalk/211655-south-stream-pipeline-gas/

        • phillip ure 1.2.1.2
          13 December 2014 at 2:20 pm

          @ aero..

          “..Labour isn’t angry enough, keen enough, righteous about the damage Key is doing..”

          ..+ 1..

          • Manuka AOR 1.2.1.2.1
            13 December 2014 at 10:10 pm

            Very true. They need to amp it up.

            • b waghorn 1.2.1.2.1.1
              14 December 2014 at 1:26 pm

              I see the anger bubbling under the surface of Little if he can turn it into something voters see as righteous anger and not whiny anger Nz might turn the corner.

    • Tracey 1.3
      14 December 2014 at 9:22 am

      And why would people think we werent heading in the right direction? The Nats lie about it and the media doesn’t analyse it…

  2. Jenny Kirk 2
    13 December 2014 at 8:15 am

    Its possibly a bit too soon for the “bad news pouring out of dairy industry” have been absorbed by the general public, Colonial R. And for that to be reflected in the polls.

    I noted also the other day that retail spending is down a bit, but again – like you say – most people will be intent on end-of-year doings and not worrying too much about the state of the country, economy, or whatever.

    And the reverse is happening as well : interest rates appear to have stabilised and are reasonable so people are now looking at property/houses again – despite the very high cost of housing occurring in Auckland.

    But I agree with you, Mickey, Labour people are ending the year on a higher and more hopeful note. Great, eh !?

    • Colonial Rawshark 2.1
      13 December 2014 at 8:19 am

      I somehow feel like society is acting utterly frog-like as the temperature of the water in the pot notches up a little bit more, for yet another year in a row.

  3. Jenny Kirk 3
    13 December 2014 at 8:25 am

    Sorry – I’m not up with frogs ! Don’t seem to be many around where we are . How do they react as water gets warmer ? ? Just sit there, sheeplike ?

  4. BM 4
    13 December 2014 at 8:26 am

    Margin of error.

    Also no ones interested in politics at the best of times, after such a shitty election political interest is sub zero.

    If the economy bombs and the majority start to really struggle, then the left will be in with a chance, until then it’s just a matter of waiting.

    How Little performs or doesn’t perform isn’t really a factor.

    What may help a bit is if all the idiotic left fanatical activists didn’t go onto stuff, the herald, John Keys facebook page and spout their hatred and bull shit.

    All they do is look completely unhinged and nasty which by association drags the left parties down.

    • Clemgeopin 4.1
      13 December 2014 at 8:59 am

      What may help a bit is if all the idiotic left fanatical activists didn’t go onto stuff, the herald, John Keys facebook page and spout their hatred and bull shit.
      All they do is look completely unhinged and nasty which by association drags the left parties down

      I think some of those ‘left’ activists you mention are actually RW plants. You have heard of Black Ops, Dirty Politics, Cosby Textor, FJK chant initiation?
      Do not underestimate the expensive RW vast propaganda machine.

      • BM 4.1.1
        13 December 2014 at 9:23 am

        Right, you reckon it’s black ops then and not your typical left wing paranoid nut bar who’ve convinced themselves the John Key is some evil shape shifting reptilian bankster in cohorts with the Illuminati.

        It could well be, it’s certainly effective in helping shore up support for National.

        • les 4.1.1.1
          13 December 2014 at 9:44 am

          I like that description of Key…take out the reptilian and pretty spot on.

          • phillip ure 4.1.1.1.1
            13 December 2014 at 3:33 pm

            nah..!..key is just a grifter..

            ..he’s good at it..but a grifter he is..

            ..i mean..his arc is money-trader to rightwing/opportunist-politician..

            ..that is grifting on steroids..

            “..As the amiable grifter with an iron ego –

            – he projects a distinctly bouncy likable personality into an unusual role..”

        • Clemgeopin 4.1.1.2
          13 December 2014 at 11:53 am

          I said, ‘some of those’, not all. May be many. Don’t dismiss the evil designs engineered by the nasty Nats. Check this link:

          ‘Dirty Politics’ by Nikki Hager

    • Crowchild 4.2
      13 December 2014 at 5:53 pm

      The left wing fanatics not infesting social media and the comments section of every major media outlet would help very much. People are bored with the hate,

      [And so on – Deleted]

      [lprent: If you want to go off topic or simply just write a troll comment as you did here then do so in OpenMike. If you want to write in a post, make it relevant to the post and/or directed at the actual content you are replying to. Simply ranting on the same topic does constitute a reply. It just implies a self-absorbed wanker at their solo work. Banned for 2 months to allow you time to work it out of your system and become more socialised around humans. ]

  5. Jenny Kirk 5
    13 December 2014 at 8:32 am

    “How Little performs or doesn’t perform isn’t really a factor.”

    Oh yes, it IS, BM. and the fact that Little has performed extremely well in his first
    three weeks as Leader must be worrying your lot immensely. Bet they’ll be trying to work out how to pull him down over their beers ‘n’ bbqs this summer !

    • BM 5.1
      13 December 2014 at 8:45 am

      No it’s not.
      The only way the left will get elected is if Key goes mad, Key retires, the economy bombs and a Little lead left can demonstrate they’ve got the ideas and talent to get the economy up and running.

      Yelling and insulting Key in parliament equates to fuck all in the glazed over eyes of your average kiwi voter.

      Btw, out in the real world, businesses are humming, people I talk to have said it’s never been busier.

      • Skinny 5.1.1
        13 December 2014 at 9:08 am

        And the pastures are greener this December for farmers. Unfortunately they are in a similar position to Labour with the tide out, however this poll shows the tide is on the turn for Labour.

        The wheels tend to slow even in the Cities when farmers stop spending, expect your friends to have a very quite Jan & Feb BM.

      • Maisie 5.1.2
        13 December 2014 at 10:39 am

        My, Little HAS touched a nerve, hasn’t he!?

      • Tom Jackson 5.1.3
        13 December 2014 at 10:41 am

        Then perhaps the average kiwi voter is no longer competent to direct matters.

      • Puddleglum 5.1.5
        13 December 2014 at 12:27 pm

        “Yelling and insulting Key in parliament equates to fuck all in the glazed over eyes of your average kiwi voter.”

        And here’s the conundrum. In the period 2005-2008 just such ‘yelling and insulting’ worked a treat on Clark.

        Yet, there is far more evidence of a lack of integrity and trustworthiness in relation to John Key and his government than there ever was in relation to Helen Clark and hers.

        In the first case, apparently, eyes did not ‘glaze over’. In the second case, strangely, glazing seems to be all that the average kiwi voter’s eyes are up to – at least according to you.

        What has been the difference?

        My view is quite simple: Key affects an affinity with ‘ordinary kiwi’ identity; Clark did not. Therefore, to attack Key is, for many New Zealanders, an attack on themselves. An attack on Clark was not.

        The self-serving bias in person perception and evaluation ensures that Key’s quite unlikely identification as an ordinary kiwi protects him from harsh judgment in many New Zealanders’ eyes – hence, ‘glazed over’.

        Key deliberately and inauthentically aligns with the caricatured myth of the ‘ordinary kiwi’ – a myth that many New Zealanders themselves adopt for social safety and security (i.e., they feel safe from criticism if they behave within this myth).

        To attack Key is to attack that myth which, in turn, is to undermine the sense of social safety many New Zealanders depend upon to order their lives.

        They probably wouldn’t put it this way but an attack on Key makes them scared and angry. Far better and more reassuring – for them – to continue to see Key as a fairly ‘low-key kiwi’, pragmatically and moderately shoulder-shrugging his way to success after uninterrupted success – just like they imagine themselves doing in the great, mythical kiwi tradition.

        That is, one falsity attaches itself to another and makes use of the very strong and deep emotional commitments associated with it.

        As odd as it might seem, this is the sort of thing that happens all the time in the human social world.

        • RedLogix 5.1.5.1
          13 December 2014 at 12:39 pm

          a myth that many New Zealanders themselves adopt for social safety and security (i.e., they feel safe from criticism if they behave within this myth).

          And how remarkably unsafe it is to step outside of it.

        • CATMAN 5.1.5.2
          13 December 2014 at 12:48 pm

          Thank you Puddleglum, very well explained

        • TeWhareWhero 5.1.5.3
          13 December 2014 at 12:48 pm

          Thoughtful post as usual Puddleglum.

          For a lot of people (my mother included) criticism of Key evokes the same knee-jerk, emotion laden response as a criticism of New Zealand does.

          These people stay afloat, in psychological terms, by clutching on to (a rapidly deflating) flotation aid – the notion of a special and identifiable ‘Kiwiness’.

          Keywees can’t define what Kiwiness is – but they’re very sure about what it isn’t.

          It certainly isn’t socialist (although they have all benefitted from aspects of socialism) and it isn’t intellectual or academic.

          • Lloyd 5.1.5.3.1
            13 December 2014 at 8:51 pm

            Actually the kiwi ethos is pure socialism. The tall poppy syndrome and the founding principal of “jack is as good as his master” along with the “fair go” approach to competition and the acceptance of tested rules fits in with the 40 hour week to make almost every New Zealander into a closet socialist. The basic lack of recognition of this situation could be blamed on our foreign owned msm.

            The scary thing about being a demi-god placed on a public altar of fantasy is that when enough people realise that the god is a man with clay feet, the fall is abrupt and absolute. I think John Key’s fall will be of this nature and I think he will find living in New Zealand impossible once his perfidy and his attack on the basic kiwi ethos has been recognised by the majority of kiwis.

            • greywarshark 5.1.5.3.1.1
              13 December 2014 at 11:09 pm

              roger douglas, richard prebble david caygill, michael barnett et al still live in nz and do okay.

        • BM 5.1.5.4
          13 December 2014 at 1:01 pm

          The reason Clark BECAME unpopular is because she stuck her beak into New Zealanders private lives with her socialist engineering policies.

          If she’d stuck to just running the country she would have gotten a fourth term.

          • RedLogix 5.1.5.4.1
            13 December 2014 at 1:07 pm

            socialist engineering policies

            That’ll be the rule about not using ‘discipline’ as a legal excuse to beat children was it?

            Yeah I can see how that threatened a lot of kiwi’s self-beliefs alright.

          • Lloyd 5.1.5.4.2
            13 December 2014 at 9:07 pm

            BM it was because Kiwis were told by the msm that she was sticking her beak into New Zealanders’ private lives.

            When a government ACTUALLY sticks its nose into our lives with the proposal to let the SIS poke its nose into anyone’s affairs for 48hrs without any checks or balances the msm has not raised this as an issue to highlight to the public and has not set out how similar this is to the situation under East Germany or North Korea.

            John Key’s far-right government is far more intrusive with its current policies than anything the Helen did. The difference is how the msm has told the story.

            If you are right about why Helen lost, BM, then we can be sure that John Key will not be able to win the next election.

          • Clemgeopin 5.1.5.4.3
            13 December 2014 at 10:46 pm

            her socialist engineering policies
            Yeah? Which ones?

          • Tracey 5.1.5.4.4
            14 December 2014 at 9:24 am

            as oppposed to unfettered ability to put cameras in their bedrooms … i

        • Sanctuary 5.1.5.5
          13 December 2014 at 1:42 pm

          I like your analogy, but I wouldn’t carry it to far. When you consider it, National only got the votes of about 30% of New Zealanders. This, by and large, represent a certain class – the top third of the middle class, most of the ruling class and the rich. This entitled middle class dominates our media – it is all Hoskings and Henry, pretty middle class EGGS girls fresh from university, the nepotistic recruiting of the political classes. This is class that Key represents, and through it’s dominance of the media it’s values are presented as monolithic. This is the group that Armstrong and all the rest of the MSM have in mind when they talk of the “centre” in NZ politics. But not a big change – 4-5% – in the polls would see “Key’s Kiwis” relegated to agitating (albeit from a position of privileged access to power) against the left as a kind of Kiwi version of Thailand’s yellow shirts.

          To digress off on a little tangent, Drinnan’s column is a neat representation of the narrow class and cultural focus of our current media. One of the main reasons left wing parties chicken out when in power from enacting reforms that actually favour the poor – and lock in their voting advantage -is a fear of a middle class, “yellow shirt” revolt, enabled by the middle class control of the media. The lessons of history tell us never to underestimate the speed with which the middle class and elites will abandon democracy if it feels it’s status and grip on power is under threat in any way. The top 30% has all the education, money and contacts and it ruthlessly leverages that to maintain its power.

          What the left really needs to grasp is that the top 30% won’t give up it’s privileges and luxuries out an altruistic sense of charity. They’ll never give, it has to be taken. When in power the left needs to move swiftly to build alternative centres of money, power, organisation and communication – the sort of centres of power mass trade unions used to provide as a counter balance to the middle classes. You can’t shake the iron grasp of the middle classes on everything from the media to economic policies until you’ve got an alternative popular power structures on the ground and ready to back you up.

          • RedLogix 5.1.5.5.1
            13 December 2014 at 2:15 pm

            One of the main reasons left wing parties chicken out when in power from enacting reforms that actually favour the poor – and lock in their voting advantage -is a fear of a middle class, “yellow shirt” revolt, enabled by the middle class control of the media.

            I recall a conversation with Michael Cullen which more or less concluded on exactly that note.

            I’d suggest the only way out of this trap is to get the ‘middle classes’ onside. That’s not so hard as you’d think.

            • Naturesong 5.1.5.5.1.1
              13 December 2014 at 3:00 pm

              “I’d suggest the only way out of this trap is to get the ‘middle classes’ onside. That’s not so hard as you’d think.”

              It really depends on the person – in the lead up to the election, I met a number of middle class voters who were horrified at the thought of a Labour / Green government.
              When asked why, out came all the lies propgated by the National Party and their press gallery.

              I remember one particularly jarring one:
              That the Greens transport policies would result in gridlock in Auckland and cripple the national roading system
              – this was from a small business owner (and by all accounts a decent employer) who was trained as an engineer, and whose business involved some fairly complex systems and processes.

              How did an intelligent man, with a critical mind suddenly sever ties with reality when politics was involved?
              He had got his information from New Zealand newspapers, TV and radio.
              None of the Green policies he gave me details on bore any relation to their actual policies.

              • Colonial Rawshark …
                13 December 2014 at 3:10 pm

                Some people are intrinsically non-inquisitive and take (trust) the statements made in the MSM and by the PM on face value. Auckland Transport Blog is not that hard to find for anyone who is interested in what is actually happening.

                In general – you don’t even need to bring the middle classes as a whole on side. Just 50,000 more of them. As has already been said here – not hard at all. Just needs politicians who are in touch with those who are earning $60K pa to $100K pa.

                • BM …
                  13 December 2014 at 3:15 pm

                  I can see why you didn’t get picked to be a pollie.

                  • Colonial Rawshark …
                    13 December 2014 at 3:17 pm

                    I don’t need to kowtow to anyone to be picked for anything, my friend.

                    • BM …
                      13 December 2014 at 3:24 pm

                      It does seem to be all about the power with you, bud.

                      Politicians should be serving the people who voted for them as well as the people who didn’t, not punishing them for not voting for you.

                    • Colonial Rawshark …
                      13 December 2014 at 3:35 pm

                      Mate, if I’d actually wanted “power” as a politician I’d be compromising and kowtowing and scraping to political party power brokers. But really, who can be arsed.

                      As for “punishing” those who don’t vote for you. Firstly that’s not a very sound or successful political strategy. Secondly, everyone – and I mean everyone – benefits if society is healthier and more equal across the board.

                      Someone in the top 0.1% may feel like they are being “punished” if they have to pay an extra $50K in luxury sales tax when they buy a $500K Lambo. But when you think about it for a sec, in reality paying for 20,000 school lunches for hungry kids in Auckland and Northland isn’t a punishment at all, it is a reward.

                    • RedLogix …
                      13 December 2014 at 3:39 pm

                      Just needs politicians who are in touch with those who are earning $60K pa to $100K pa.

                      Which is the short version of what I said below.

            • Sanctuary 5.1.5.5.1.2
              13 December 2014 at 3:20 pm

              They’ll only come on board for so far though. I guess to be brutally real politik about it, you only need them on board until you’ve built enough organised centres of popular power to be able to enact a Bolivarian agenda without them.

              To me, that should always be the ultimate goal of a left wing party – to keep pulling the Overton window to the left until you have enough popular support for a (democratic) Bolivarian revolution.

              • BM …
                13 December 2014 at 3:31 pm

                This revolution talk really does give you guys a hard on||wide on.

                What a pity for you, it’s all fantasy land stuff.

                • Sanctuary …
                  13 December 2014 at 5:04 pm

                  “The revolution is impossible, until it is inevitable” – Trotsky.

                • Colonial Rawshark …
                  13 December 2014 at 5:12 pm

                  BM there already has been a revolution in social and economic relations over the last 40-50 years. Most of the change has been adverse to the bottom 80% however.

          • Naturesong 5.1.5.5.2
            13 December 2014 at 2:39 pm

            Reading this reminds me of Chile’s middleclass revolt prior to the military coup in 1972-3 (and subequent implementation of neoliberalism at the point of a gun)

            • RedLogix 5.1.5.5.2.1
              13 December 2014 at 3:37 pm

              Which only reinforces my point above. This working/middle class divide thing that we have going on here is desperately counterproductive. There are several obvious components to reframing this:

              1. The 0.1% are screwing the middle classes too.

              2. The middle classes are generally very fond of clean beaches, rivers and wilderness. They avidly watch wildlife programs. The 0.1% are screwing the environment.

              3. The middle classes are generally keen to help other people help themselves. They generally however hate the idea that their generosity is being taken advantage of. Show them how the 0.1% are the real bludgers.

              4. The middle classes are where the arts, sports, literature and education are valued and invested in. Here is where community is built. Not the 0.1% who hide behind their gated mansions and fly about in their helicopters far above us all.

              5. It is middle classes who keep things going. They are the ones who work long and stressful hours to pay their way, pay taxes, pay health insurance, pay for their kids, pay their mortgages, save for their retirement and pay to look after their elderly. It’s not the 0.1% who make this all happen – it’s the 99.9%

              6. The social gradient stressors that gross inequality induces has an impact on 99.9%. We are the ones who damaged by it. It corrodes the social fabric that we all depend on. It doesn’t affect the 0.1% who have isolated themselves from us.

              And so on. The challenge here is this. Most people know what working class looks like, but very few of us have any idea of how the 0.1% really live, and how much power they wield over us. The middle classes live in the illusion that they have some degree of control in their lives, that they have fully merited their modest place in life. What really gains their attention is a perceived threat to this – but it is not the working class (with whom they really have a great deal in common) who are the powerful ones.

              It is the faceless, the unaccountable, the untouchable 0.1% who are.

              • Colonial Rawshark …
                13 December 2014 at 3:45 pm

                Now you’re talking, mate. This stuff isn’t rocket science.

                The middle classes are very open to the idea of self interest, properly understood. Someone just needs to explain it to them. Maybe a job for the Labour Party?

                • RedLogix …
                  13 December 2014 at 3:50 pm

                  I am as middle class as you get. And this is why I am here, why I have supported this place for so long; self interest, properly understood.

                  • Naturesong …
                    13 December 2014 at 4:56 pm

                    I grew up in middle class Auckland.
                    My membership and support of the Greens is purely and wholly self interest.

                    I wish to ensure that every person I meet from now to the end of my life is more likely to be an engaged and productive citizen than not.
                    I (along with everyone else) wil be a bit safer, there would be more social / business opportunities and its much cheaper in the long run.

                    The continued unemployment, underemployment, poverty, inequality, degredation of public institutions, reduction in the health and education budgets, and lack of access to resources in communities in New Zealand works against that aim.

              • dave brown …
                13 December 2014 at 5:01 pm

                Andrew Little is re-examining the working class.

                My pick is that he will argue that it extends well into the middle class, including self-employed, since most of these people are living off their labour and not the labour of others.

                It is then possible to show that there is a common interest, how to defend our labour and its product, how to unite and organise to avoid zero hour contracts, living wage, etc.

                I think that this conception could become a working approximation of the 99%.

                We are then theoretically outlining the road to breaking down the divisions that exist within this 99% along the lines of income, race, gender etc.

                It seems to me that already the many uprisings we are witnessing around the world are the 99% beginning to move together.

                Occupy was a start along those lines. But most come up against the problem of agreeing on new institutions to replace existing ones.

                The outstanding problem IMO is how to organise and form a power bloc that is capable of taking on and defeating the 1% (bankers, landlords, corporate bosses, and their mercenaries in the upper echelons of the state, military, police etc).

                I don’t think this 1% is “faceless, unaccountable, untouchable”. They have been unmasked and confronted by many uprisings; e.g dirty politics has been unmasked yet our counter-power has not been mobilised to hold them accountable by sacking them from power and socialising their wealth.

                Whistleblowers are still being arrested and jailed. Yet out of their sacrifice mass movements arise and not everyone can be jailed. Ferguson shows that these movements lose their fear and reach the point of challenging authority, which responds with illegitimate power that only serves to deepen and widen the protest.

                What is needed now is the understanding that illegitimate power that kills protesters, uses drones to kill ‘terrorists’ etc, justifies legitimate power/self-defence. Social movements need to coordinate, defend themselves and organise around a program the unites all the struggles against the system.

                That has to be a political program that addresses what we need and how to get it; control over production to meet our needs and not profits; production that is ecologically sustainable to avoid species extinction; a political and cultural framework that allows democratic decisions, but also united action.

                Political parties that do not become part of the struggle for legitimate power and resist it are part of that illegitimate power.

                So far Little has signalled that he wants Labour to prop up illegitimate power if his tactic on the 24 hours SIS spying without warrant is any indication.

                However, if the left in Labour forces Little to turn his work on the Future of Labour into a program for the defence of Labour rather than its incorporation into the defence of Capital; to fight for a living wage, restore trade union rights; get out of the TPPA; move towards free health, education, housing; end carbon and methane production etc., then Labour will cease to be a barrier to the social revolution that is needed urgently to avoid social extinction.

            • Sanctuary 5.1.5.5.2.2
              13 December 2014 at 3:37 pm

              I have a lot of Chilean friends and love visiting the place. The only difference, politically, between us and them is the deep reservoir of democratic civic society and democratic traditions that binds us together in a way Chilean society is not. But those bindings are fraying. For example, Key operates as a sort of casual Pinochet-lite, gutting constitutional conventions and checks and balances in favour of corporate values of a highly centralised leadership structure, combined with an outcome focussed devolution of power to whatever structure is expedient to achieving the task. In other words, Key and Joyce set the goal, but they leave how the goal is achieved it to subordinates like Eagleson, de Joux and Ede. Democratic values values demand multiple points of authority with as strong a focus on process as outcomes. Key’s corporate contempt for constitutional conventions combined with his neo-liberal outlook treats our inherited democratic civil society as irrelevant to his exercise of power, and that renders anyone who relies on that civil society voiceless and powerless. And that is a very, very dangerous outcome.

              • RedLogix …
                13 December 2014 at 3:44 pm

                And that I agree with completely.

                As Puddleglum pointed out a while back, Key might act like an ‘average kiwi bozo’, but in reality he is a corporate creature the likes of which relatively few New Zealanders have ever encountered.

                He is an elitist stooge of the highest order, masked by a well crafted study in ordinariness.

                • Sanctuary …
                  13 December 2014 at 5:16 pm

                  The thing the right don’t seem to realise though is once those binding undo – and the undoing can happen dramatically quickly, witness something like the Springbok tour or the first coup in Fiji – then the act of a minute can destroy the convention of generations, and take generations to to rebuild.

                  Generally speaking, the right regard civil society as bank against which they can make withdrawls for their personal enrichment, whereas the (non-revolutionary) left sees investing in the creation of a civil society as a necessary precursor to the building of a better world. Until recently, the right understood the boundaries beyond which they dare not venture, but the fall of the USSR and the rise of right wing Leninism has seen the governors removed, and increasingly reckless policy programs from fundamentally unappeasable neoliberal vanguards.

                  • Colonial Rawshark …
                    13 December 2014 at 5:27 pm

                    Yep. Just bear in mind that the main vehicle is via transnational corporates, which essentially all operate systems of wide scale death and destruction for private profit.

                  • Murray Rawshark …
                    13 December 2014 at 7:59 pm

                    What is right wing Leninism?

                  • Foreign waka …
                    14 December 2014 at 11:10 am

                    I agree with you fully and I am glad that someone can express this actually dangerous situation for NZ so eloquently. However, I don’t have the positive inclination that if the left just does this or that things will work out. I belief that the rich have now such firm grip on NZ that they will defend their privilege with force if need be. NZ is, as it always has been, a colonized country. Only this time the colonizers are corporate raiders. Key want the flag changed, for me that is a way of getting to a republic even closer and with that to private ownership of a whole county.

              • Olwyn …
                13 December 2014 at 4:31 pm

                Key’s corporate contempt for constitutional conventions combined with his neo-liberal outlook treats our inherited democratic civil society as irrelevant to his exercise of power, and that renders anyone who relies on that civil society voiceless and powerless.

                This points to another feature that middle class and working class people have in common – they both rely on the constraints of a civil society. One of Key’s great con tricks has been to convince many middle class people that he is everyman, and in the same move convince them that they are somehow elites, sharing his privileged position. But unlike him, they are endangered by his erosion of democratic conventions, since their own power is far more limited.

          • Clemgeopin 5.1.5.5.3
            13 December 2014 at 10:53 pm

            @Sanctuary:
            Excellent point. The question is HOW to build such centres/catalysts of power and change?

      • Ffloyd 5.1.6
        13 December 2014 at 3:21 pm

        I have talked to three business owners in the last week who said that they have never known business to be so slow. They are very worried. No humming from them!

        • Kiwiri - Raided of the Last Shark 5.1.6.1
          13 December 2014 at 3:34 pm

          What business are they involved with?

          • Foreign waka 5.1.6.1.1
            14 December 2014 at 11:12 am

            Basic necessities, and this is the greatest worry. People do not have any money. Just wait until end Feb and it will hit the skids.

      • Tracey 5.1.7
        13 December 2014 at 3:41 pm

        “.Key goes mad, Key retires, the economy bombs. …” Meat Loaf

  6. Ad 6
    13 December 2014 at 10:22 am

    Dairy, dollar, and development.

    So far we are still forecasting 3% economic growth for 15-16.

    If dairy seriously pulls down the NZDollar in 12 months, then all imports + food (which is about 30%oil price) all shoot up. Then the question of immigration sustaining development and house prices in Auckland. That would be the great remaining prop.

    • Colonial Rawshark 6.1
      13 December 2014 at 1:02 pm

      So far we are still forecasting 3% economic growth for 15-16.

      Those growth forecasts never take into account inflation or population growth. Take off 2.5% for inflation. Take off another 1.5% for population growth.

      That’ll give you something closer to GDP growth per capita.

      Also bear in mind that in bad economic times, National will simply run the line that they are more trustworthy and competent economic managers than Labour with its union leader and its campus politician finance spokesperson. And the electorate will believe that.

      • Lanthanide 6.1.1
        13 December 2014 at 4:18 pm

        Inflation is currently running around 1% and population growth over 2013 was 0.8%.

        • Colonial Rawshark 6.1.1.1
          13 December 2014 at 5:21 pm

          I find the 1% figure difficult to accept as being accurate because of house and rental costs, not to mention power prices and fuel (although fuel has been a tiny bit cheaper lately).

          Assuming those numbers were good though, taking 1.8% off the 3% figure doesn’t leave much left.

      • nadis 6.1.2
        13 December 2014 at 4:27 pm

        GDP is quoted in real terms, so already adjusted for inflation.

        • Colonial Rawshark 6.1.2.1
          13 December 2014 at 5:19 pm

          Can you give me a statistics NZ, Treasury or similar link for where that is said?

          I am pretty sure the GDP figure quoted is always in nominal current day NZD i.e. excludes inflation considerations.

          • nadis 6.1.2.1.1
            13 December 2014 at 6:49 pm

            Sure. Here for instance:

            http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/GDP/GrossDomesticProduct_HOTPJun14qtr.aspx

            If you don’t inflation adjust, you can’t do meaningful comparisons.

            Whenever you see something like “expressed in 1995/1996 prices.” that is a real series not nominal. NZ always uses the average price level of 1995/1996 to base for inflation. Though next quarter I think the stats dept is changing to 2010 prices as the base. They will then recalculate all the history so that price =100 in 2010. In general, nominal series are never published as they are useless when comparing different time periods.

            The stats dept does also publish GDP per capita which you alluded to – thats fell for the first time in ages in the June quarter. See table 21 of the excel sheet on the above linked page.

            Agriculture, forestry and fishing make up 5% of NZ GDP which surprises most people. If you do a survey of people you know I would bet that almost all of them would assume the dairy industry makes up 20 or 30% of GDP. Yet its somewhere between 3 and 4%, so while a big slowdown will have a large impact on some areas (ie rural service towns), Mount Maunganui baches etc, it wont necessarily have a large impact on the wider economy.

            Your comments on inflation too point to a real interesting behavioural aspect around inflation expectations. People perceive inflation based on their own basket of goods which will almost always be different from the basket. Note house prices are not included in the inflation measurement but anyone in Auckland for sure will factor some element of house price inflation into their own view on what inflation is and where it might go. But as measured by the stats department inflation is low and given the deflationary forces overseas unlikely to go higher by much, even if we see a 10% drop in the currency.

  7. Tom Jackson 7
    13 December 2014 at 10:26 am

    The general derangement of NZ continues apace.

  8. Anne 8
    13 December 2014 at 11:12 am

    What is strange is that confidence that New Zealand is heading in the right direction has soared.

    It’s Xmas. People are feeling good. Spending money like it’s falling off the trees. Lots of bright lights and tinsel around. The economy must be good. Poll them again around February when reality has set back in and they’re up to their eyeballs in Xmas debt. They will tell us the opposite.

    • Karen 8.1
      13 December 2014 at 2:23 pm

      The no confidence question is “do you think NZ is going SERIOUSLY in the wrong direction.” For some reason Roy Morgan never say this is the question in their press releases, but I think this word “seriously” has a major influence in the answers people give, especially if the person asking emphasizes that word.

      I think the Roy Morgan results for confidence are very misleading and I find it extraordinary that nobody in the MSM ever points this out.

    • Maisie 8.2
      13 December 2014 at 3:38 pm

      And I wonder if there are others like me for whom the future seems a lot brighter after the excellent performance of Andrew Little?

  9. Paul 9
    13 December 2014 at 11:15 am

    Once the collapsing dairy farm economy hits , it’ll be harder to believe the crap Key speaks.
    It’s not a easy task to break free from a cult.

  10. Red delusion 10
    13 December 2014 at 11:57 am

    Those of you who are celebrating a fall in dairy prices and a hope economy will crash to justify some loony left revolution fail to recognise diary prices rise and fall sharply as do all commodities, it’s not unusual or spell doom. The fall at this time in political cycle is good news for national with a recovery in prices more than likely well underway by 2017

    • Naturesong 10.1
      13 December 2014 at 3:16 pm

      That’s a pretty disgusting thing to say.

      That you confuse people saying “We told you so you bloody idiots” (paraphrased), with the idea that damage to the New Zealand economy is awesome shows an alarming cognitive disconnection – might pay to see a doctor, just to make sure everything’s ok up top.

      The fall of dairy prices does not look like the normal fluctuation of a commodity.
      The long awaited influx of new dairy producers entering the international market is happening now. Our primary market, China is experiencing falling demand as its economy slows, and Chinese are also returning to domestic dairy.

      And since our economy only has 4 legs; milk powder, logs, rebuild and housing bubble (tax haven?), damage to any one of them make us very vulnerable.

      • Tracey 10.1.1
        13 December 2014 at 5:09 pm

        His name is half right

      • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.2
        14 December 2014 at 1:39 pm

        It’s clear that this particular delusional reality denier suffers from right wing brain syndrome; things are seriously amiss “up top”.

        I suspect this one may even be a victim of Acanthocystis Turfacea Chlorella virus.

  11. CATMAN 11
    13 December 2014 at 12:45 pm

    I have trouble understanding the whole “confidence that New Zealand is heading in the right direction ” bit in these polls

    If I were asked, and I thought Labour and the Greens were looking likely to be the next govt, I’d probably say the country was heading in the right direction

    • Lanthanide 11.1
      13 December 2014 at 4:25 pm

      Yip, it’s a stupid question. I answered ‘no’ purely because I know they use it as an indication of confidence in the government.

      My real answer would be ‘yes’, but that’s in spite of the government, not because of it.

      • Clemgeopin 11.1.1
        13 December 2014 at 11:15 pm

        i think a better question would be to ask :

        ‘Do you think the economy will improve or deteriorate in the next twelve months?’

        Or,

        ‘Are you optimistic or pessimistic in our economy improving within the next year?’

  12. The Murphey 12
    13 December 2014 at 1:49 pm

    Q. Why do people input energies into a system which is going to extinct them ?

    The 80’s Labour government and Rogernomics were no accident.

    Little supporting warrant-less spying creating bipartisan support of the legislation was no accident.

    • Colonial Rawshark 12.1
      13 December 2014 at 1:58 pm

      Q. Why do people input energies into a system which is going to extinct them ?

      And this is a very good question.

    • Tracey 12.2
      13 December 2014 at 5:13 pm

      People in media can call women feminazi… See the journalist for the SST name of Reason a couple of weeks ago… But if i were to suggest warrantless searches make the nats nazis peoole cry Godwin.

  13. ankerawshark 13
    13 December 2014 at 2:05 pm

    I had a quick look but couldnt see anything about the preferred PM. Anyone know about this?????

    Sorry if its been mentioned already. Busy with Christmas.

  14. finbar 14
    13 December 2014 at 4:37 pm

    Grasp rabble your old school manipulated by more important media drive,forget the guts of our Labour struggle against usury of our humanity.We have to get those not like us to accept our new being and advance old age knowings progression.

  15. reason 15
    13 December 2014 at 11:26 pm

    Nadis quoted dairy in relation to total GDP for his 5% figure.

    However if we look at Exports its around 25% and equal to all manufacturing exports combined.

    This hard fall for the farmers will mean less money for the country and it will be felt.

    Also Dirty politics has a long way to go yet. This will play out over years …………

  16. Grantoc 16
    14 December 2014 at 1:27 pm

    This poll is pretty irrelevant in the scheme of things.

    It’s one poll immediately after a general election with 3 years or thereabouts until the next one.

    And as has been pointed out by others the general public are focusing on Christmas and their summer holidays. Politics at the this point in the political cycle and at this time of year is just a big turn off.

    Of more value will be the emerging trends across many polls say this time next year.

    People can take what solace they want from this poll but really, as I say, it means very little. (not meant to be a pun)

    • Anne 16.1
      14 December 2014 at 7:19 pm

      Of more value will be the emerging trends across many polls say this time next year.

      Agreed Grantoc. mickysavage pointed this out in his post. It’s the first of many polls to come, but it possibly does indicate that Labour hit the bottom of the barrel on the 20th September 2014 and it is now on it’s way up again. With the election of Andrew Little as leader, I see this as a very positive sign for the future.

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