Latest Roy Morgan poll result: National support plunges
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6:48 pm, April 26th, 2016 - 329 comments
Categories: greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, winston peters -
Tags: Roy Morgan poll
The latest Roy Morgan poll result is out and Winston Peters will be grinning from ear to ear. From its website:
During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% – the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.
Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).
Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% – its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).
It looks like National’s support is being shaken loose. Labour will not enjoy the result. The continued attacks are clearly hurting. But National will be the one feeling the pain from this result.
329 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan poll result: National support plunges ”
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As a righty I’m not that happy with the drop in nationals support. But key won’t be at risk over it. Little continue to lead labour into lower and lower numbers – they are just keeping their head above 25 % and trending lower and lower – could be in the low 20s by the end of the year.
Congrats Winnie. Not sure what he’s done to earn the %age – but clearly something is working for him
With National having abandoned any pretence that they serve the country, I expect it’s nationalism.
The NZF factor is a good reason the PM has framed the housing taxes as he has.
– land tax on foreigners, not hard working NZers (classic dog whistle)
– but some hard working NZers will be caught up in it so it will be labelled as unfair (which it is) so it will be dropped with a “see we tried, you didn’t want it”
And first on the right to try and frame this as bad news for Labour is …
That would be me MS.
As I have said for a while now, NZ First is going to be the big winner in a situation where the country is falling out of love with Key but still can’t stand Labour.
NZ is likely seeing the start of the same trend that we have observed in other western countries: the electorate is gradually deciding that voting for the two big parties tweedle dum and tweedle dee is not their only option.
So National Party support stumbles badly, Labour drops almost as badly proportionately and the third parties Winston + Greens pick it all up. Mostly Winston.
I feel sorry for Little. He is doing an honest careful job and he gets castigated by National, attacks repeated by the media and then repeated by some on the left. It seems that the odd stray word is a reason to write him off while the right are busily tearing the country apart.
Labour’s soft support is primarily not about Little. Or primarily about any specific leader.
CV “Labour’s soft support is primarily not about Little. Or primarily about any specific leader.”
People don’t much care if you prop it up with a blue or a red four by two when it’s obvious the structure is rotten to the core.
There will be political enthusiasm when someone (a Sanders or Trump) says, “This place is a shambles and needs a complete overhaul.” Just keep your fingers crossed about what they envision as an overhaul.
Andrew Little needs to engage his brain before opening his mouth. And get some decent back office / strategy support.
Having to rely on his opposition (National) going easy on him is not a strategy to win an election with.
Will be very interesting come 2017 and the leader debates…maybe Matthew Hooton’s call for 20% will not be too far off!
Pffft!
Little is a careful and intelligent guy with admin experience. The Gnats are a gang of loud and obnoxious white collar crims – and only two of them are functional – Joyce & Key. The rest are hopeless incompetents and everything they touch turns to shit.
It was the water that got them.
Outside of far-right ACT spawn, no-one thinks that stealing our resources is an Oravida prerogative. The median voter is always on the fence – one little egregious Gnat theft is enough to make them turn away.
+1000
And it’s a poor reflection on the political cognisance of nearly half the voters that they still can’t see the gross incompetency and lack of vision coming from this government.
Yup – but many of them naively expect the media to let them know what’s going on. They used to, much much better than this at least. And people are busy. But they’re waking up and starting to pay attention now.
Twyford’s ‘Tidal Wave’ is going to be infinitely more popular that Nick Smith’s wadeable rivers of bullshit. Now Little (maybe with Winston & the Greens) just needs to say “We’re taking the water back”.
You really do need to get the “voters” a bit more credit than you and many on this site do. They don’t blindly follow John Key / National…most can see the landscape for what it is. Labour are a shambles, they need the Greens to have any hope of forming a government.
And relying on Winston to propel a Labour/Greens/NZF into government is fool hardly. At best it will be a 50/50 call for which way Winston will go…and there are very sound reasons for Winston to be part of a National Government.
Last time Winston Peter’s supported National, he public apologized for it in 1998. Peter’s hasn’t supported a National government since, but he supported Labour though.
The attraction for Key and National is simply pure greed, a million dollar property portfolio makes them loyal supporters.
With all due respect.
What the hell is wrong with you people?
8 long years of Labour being trounced over and over again – as well as at elections –
And you really sincerely still believe that the National Cabinet is utterly incompetent from top to bottom with the exception of Key and Joyce?
And that other than those two everything that the National Cabinet touches “turns to shit”?
WTF???
What kind of parallel universe do you live in?
Well with this kind of utter “incompetence” from National, then I am sure you can point to me the multiple occasions recently where:
-Andrew Little has landed king hits on National’s incompetence in his SIS portfolio this year
– Annette King has landed king hits on National’s incompetence in her Health portfolio this year
– Grant Robertson has landed king hits on National’s incompetence in his finance and employment portfolio this year
– Chris Hipkins has landed king hits on National’s incompetence in his education portfolio this year
– Ardern has landed king hits on National’s incompetence in her justice portfolio.
Jeeezus.
And you then have the nerve to blame the voters? Great democratic values there.
Fuck that: IMO Kiwi voters have got it right over and over again. Labour wasn’t ready to rule, and fell totally apart within 24 hours of their 2014 election loss.
Leftie is as we speak is working on the comprehensive response that’ll have you back with the Labour party as quick as Jock Ewing can wink his eyeball.
Whose Jock Ewing? No way Chris. Colonial Viper is happy to be out of Labour and I am happy he is out too.
But Colonial Viper, John key relies on dirty politics, abusing his position of power, rigging and a complicit msm to cling to power.
By ‘repeated by some on the left’, you mean those awkwardly straddling the left with no place to call home.
Pagani and Quin unwanted because they are right wing Blairites, and our own CV, unwanted for being an anarchic bureaucrat – an almost impossible combination (but somehow he manages it).
patience, let’s just give Little another 6 months to turn it all around.
i can haz righty attack lines, too?
So true. Some hold grudges so hard they damage their own kind in the end.
Instead of helping…
Labour ain’t my kind, and I ain’t theirs.
And with roughly 21% of Kiwis over 18 voting for them last election, they ain’t most Kiwis kind either.
Wake up.
Farrar-lite, you are. Bringing the most basic of stats in the form of argument. There’s 13 posts on his site on this issue so that is where I assume you are at home.
Marginalised anarchy, start to finish. That’s what you are now.
Good luck in your small, small world.
“Labour ain’t my kind, and I ain’t theirs.”
Maybe you could consider that Labour aren’t the only ones damaged by what you do.
Are you still an LP member, CV?
😆 he won’t answer that TRP.
They still send me regular emails asking me for money, if that counts.
A straight answer would count, CV, but I won’t hold my breath. However, if you are still a member, that would be ironic given your shift to the right. You are now ideologically aligned with all you claim to dislike about the LP, so you really should stay and start hanging out with the leftovers from the Rogernomics era. It could be the making of you 😉
@TRP: You are now ideologically aligned with all you claim to dislike about the LP, so you really should stay and start hanging out with the leftovers from the Rogernomics era.
That kind of comment does you no credit. I have never once seen CV endorse neoliberalism, and as I read him, his beef with Labour lies with Labour’s seeming reluctance to offer a real alternative. This is no time to screw around with conceptual spaces in order to make cheap shots – Labour’s chances for turning things around depend upon attentiveness and urgency, not on shutting down critics from the left with trick insults.
Huh???
I’m well to the Left of the MPs in the neoliberal wing of that caucus which you support.
Maybe they are the ones who should be kicked out of the party.
Olwyn, CV seems to be self identifying as moving to the right. See his comment 1.2.1 above for example. In my experience it’s not unusual for some frustrated leftists to make the leap from poacher to gamekeeper when they find they can’t get traction for their ideas.
Oh please Te Reo Putake – what a utter load of bull.
Spoken like a true Stalinist.
Purge him for being ideological impure – You want to set up gulags next, for anyone who questions the labour party?
Mind you, seeing as your labour party seems to falling apart, and failing in the polls – always on the look out for someone else to blame?
Strange comment, Adam. I didn’t suggest purging CV, merely noted that his apparent shift right undermines his previous moaning. But I’m sure you will have realised already that being a member of a party he constantly attacks is weird. But if CV really is moving to the right as it appears, then the nature of his complaints may change, which could be entertaining.
And that was bull – he has not moved to the right. Just to the left of labour. Which if I’m reading these pages correctly is where most people who write here sit.
What I’m sick of, and I think a lot of other people are is well is the constant ganging up by a certain group of people on Colonial Viper.
He was told to pull his head on bagging labour and he has. But a group here still keep up the attacks.
Me I’m sick of it. I go further than Colonial Viper and call the labour party the boot which is firmly on working peoples neck. The party of muddle, the party of neo-liberalism, a soft pink at best. Socially liberal, but economically retarding. A party of profession do gooders, so lame they can’t even keep a corrupt government in check.
So if you happen to be the left of labour, I’d say you are doing pretty good actually. But, it ant very hard to be the left of labour – as it looks like everyone has almost left it.
Again, I’m well to the Left of the neoliberal wing of the Labour caucus.
Neoliberal MPs within the Labour Party is the true irony here. And it is not lost on the public
cheers adam.
Exactly, Muttonbird.
@mickysavage 1.2.1.1
I agree, Little is doing a good job.
I suspect at this stage of the cycle, polls are all about the party in power…
…I dont agree Little is doing a good job!….I say bring back David Cunliffe the rank and file Labour Party member’s choice which was ignored by the Labour Party oligarchy ( shades of the power elite in the Democrates in the USA, who run the show , not the members)
…that said I will be happy voting NZF or Greens or both
…and bloody fantastic jonkey Nact is going down the dunny!
( and lets hope the other Dunnie goes with them)
@ Chooky (1.2.1.1.4.1)
Ditto here.
Chooky
I was comparing him to Key not David Cunliffe.
( and lets hope the other Dunnie goes with them)
Not a good idea – surely the hair would clog the drain?
@ Chooky (1.2.1.1.4.1)
and ditto here.
And thankyou Adam for your comment re TRP’s analysis of C.V. Christ spare us! It was pretty bloody out there in its claim that CV has shifted right.
It’s the reason I despair at the current crop of many who regard themselves as the Labour Party ‘in crowd’ (they probably are, more’s the pity!)
Last election was the first time I’d not voted Labour and as a scrutineer for Greens, I noticed Labour couldn’t even bother to put up scrutineers at the booth I was at as I noticed (and challenged) the shabby tactics of the smug Natzi operatives working 3 and 4 to a shift.
I’d decided I was sick of voting for the least worst option because that least worst option was no longer Labour.
Whilst I do find Winnie’s attitudes to many things obnoxious, I do know he’s dedicated and above all, has the sovereignty of NZers as a primary concern (alongside things like public service broadcasting and the preservation/resurrection of rail)
Similarly the Greens in general. I’d love to return to the Labour fold but sure as shit it won’t be until they unambiguously disavow any allegiance to the neo-liberal ideology/culture – better still when they apologise for the havoc their shift right in the 80’s and subsequently has wreaked on the country. Somehow I suspect I’ll get death before that happens though.
Totally agree about Cunliffe – he is the only one who could really debate well against Key – in newspaper polls he won most if not all of the debates against Key in the election build-up – he was there as Leader for such a short time he couldn’t build a following – remember Helen was there as leader for a long time before winning the election and being PM! I think Cunliffe’s intellect and ability to explain things in language that ordinary people could understand would have had the public warming to him over time, especially as things turned to custard for the Nats! But of course the ABC brigade, only thinking of themselves and their petty vendettas, made sure David Cunliffe had little support within the Caucus and had their knives out at the ready long long before the election was held.
The fact that Labour are now polling so very very low is all down to them. Choosing Little as a leader was hardly inspired. Members had very little to choose from with Little, Robertson etc. Little seems to have had no media training in all this time, he mumbles and some of his interviews are train wrecks! I’m sure he has good qualities, but he doesn’t look or sound the part. And not putting Cunliffe into a position where his substantial talents can be employed is just plain dumb! Which unfortunately is very very important in this day and age. Cunliffe does look and sound the part and he has the brains too.
imo both Little and Cunliffe are inspiring people, who in the next few years will absolutely move nz forwards – together – out of this nasty little eddy that is accumulating more and more rotten flotsam
do the many conservative nz’ers (probably more than 42.5%), who still love the comfort blanket of their good life, tax reductions, exemptions and free capital gains on their investment portfolios…. give a damn about how well the pm stands up to debate in parliament?
no – they love him, believe the msm and genuinely think that all the other parties will take away their ‘hard earned’ wealth in some way.
In fact it goes further….. for everyone who doesn’t sing the praises of their personal hero, you are mocked or vilified as a wrecker or a hater or a communist… or whatever other denigrating label the national party propaganda machine is currently carefully coreographing
let’s put aside the ‘who is better than who’ in the LP and get in behind the leaders and inspirational people from all opposition parties. Without respect for one another’s strengths on the left we will never steer NZ out of the damaging vortex into which the kleptocrats and self-validating rwnjs are slickly suckering us into
Micky
Not sure what planet youre on as all the negative stuff on Little has been self inflicted. lol
An apt pseudonym.
Exactly, he is doing an excellent job, and rightly pauses before answering media trying to trip him up.
I am beginning to think the electorate are waiting for a messiah type figure to save them, almost dumbed down to the point of infantilism. Frustrating when all they need are a group of politicians who are intelligent and give a f*** about society, which is what Labour are offering.
Oh fuck off, this view of Kiwi voters as idiot children waiting for a super hero saviour is typical Thorndon Bubble BS, and said voters can smell it from a mile away.
Then how come they haven’t ejected the neoliberal free traders from their caucus?
“how come they haven’t ejected the neoliberal free traders from their caucus?”
Because you know as well as I do that most of them are democratically elected MPs and unless they go of their own free will, then Labour cannot make them. Because that’s how democracy works.
However, you could also note that a couple ARE going – Goff, and Cosgrove, and of those who are staying – Mallard is behaving himself and supporting Little (he wants to be speaker) and King is doing an able job of being deputy leader – also supporting Little in the House at QuestionTime, and making ShonKey uncomfortable at the same time.
I see. The Labour Party has no power to stop shitty neoliberal cuckoos from being Labour party members, from having their memberships renewed over and over again, from their standing for selection, from being selected as candidates, from being put up high on the list, from being promoted in caucus, etc. etc.
Pfffft. As I’ve just described, that’s a huge disingenuous cop out.
Hear bloody hear. When will Labour supporters understand what they support? Problem is that most Labour MPs do understand. Right-wing fucks.
Truth of the matter is that selection panel delegates receiving instructions from Wellington can block most people from becoming Labour electorate candidates if they were really not suitable.
Also, unsuitable neoliberal candidates can be driven down lower in the Labour list, if so desired.
Jenny Kirk would like you to believe that Labour has no power over these processes because of “democracy.”
You have to wonder why ordinary blue collar working class candidates don’t get a look into the Labour caucus, but these neoliberal gits do, over and over and over again.
“Jenny Kirk would like you to believe that Labour has no power over these processes because of “democracy.””
Yes, that’s what struck me from her comment. It’s like a group like the Child Poverty Action Group taking over the ACT party, because that’s “democracy”.
+1 Jenny Kirk
Bit limited in your argument there CV, maybe you don’t agree with me, but whining on about Labour promoting Neo Liberalism doesn’t wash with me. Being divided and ruled by National Party/Crosby Textor is enough, without you supporting them.
Keep demonstrating your contempt of the electorate, it’s working well for you so far.
Also keep treating Labour as being our saviours from neoliberalism when its 98% the same shit different day.
“Also keep treating Labour as being our saviours…”
that’s the point CV, there are NO SAVIOURS, anywhere, we have what we have, and I don’t agree that splitting the left is productive,…..unless you prefer the status quo that is?
Ha ha it would only be splitting the left if labour were actually left, they pretend they are but their actions say otherwise.
Nah, it would only be splitting if he actually left the party 🙄
Completely agree with you Whateva next.
Korero pono, Labour are way more left than National, and their cohorts in crime, The Maori party, Seymour and Dunne.
+1000 Whateva Next
+1 Whateva Next
“NZ First is going to be the big winner in a situation where the country is falling out of love with Key but still can’t stand Labour”.
I’m almost tempted to break my rule of never using trendy social media affectations by saying … ^^^^^ This . But instead, I’ll just say: Spot-on.
Pretty much – what it almost looks like to me is, to use its history as an analogy, that the National Party as a coalition of business and rural conservatives is at serious risk of devolving back into its component parties. Winston is a classic social conservative politician, Key is a city business shill.
Northland really exposed the vulnerable underbelly of National – its neglected rural areas. Farming corporations are fine – farmers and everyone else in the regions are in trouble.
Labour’s issues are separate to all that – dunno where it’s going, certainly not at this stage. And there’s still a wide range of polls for everyone across the political spectrum, and we still have ages until the election anyway.
… still a wide range of polls for everyone across the political spectrum …
Certainly starkly contrasts with the latest Colmar Brunton =
5 point Govt lead (CB) …
8 point Oppo lead (RM).
National = 42.5% RM / 50.0% CB
Though Labour’s numbers aren’t dissimilar (and both have Labour falling).
That’s the interesting thing, though: Complete Reversal. Until March, RMs had been going overwhelmingly the Govt’s way, while CBs had been heading entirely in the Oppo’s direction. It’s as if the natural order of things has suddenly been upended, the World’s turned upon its axis, Black’s become White, Night’s become Day, every man suddenly considers himself as good as his Master and so on …
it just ain’t natural, I’m tellings you
The average of the polls still seems to be pretty accurate leading up to elections, though. This makes me think that maybe the devil is inthe details of sampling, and what they do if they’re approaching deadline and still haven’t got sufficiently representative sample sizes. I.e. demographic weighting, and then review the weighting at various times over the year, say one a tthe end of the first quarter and maybe after that. Or one company does that and there’s a genuine shift measured consistently by another polling company.
At the moment the polls are fairly pointless, especially from Little’s perspective: if they’re genuinely low, who in caucus would want the poisoned chalice of winning yet another Labour leadership contest when Little is actually doing one of the better jobs seen since ClarK and is still low? If they’re somehow flawed or on the cusp of glorious recovery, then the course of action is to keep doing what he’s doing.
Either way it’s pretty irrelevant in the run up to the next election. But if Labour keep slogging away, at least they’ll grow some more backbone about doing what they want to do, rather than worrying about the naysaying cannons on all sides.
“…and we still have ages until the election anyway.”
maybe not if they feel the tide is about to go out
People are forgetting that mid term 3 is when the incumbent Government should be at its weakest and most susceptible to attack. At 42%, 43%, 44% popularity, National remains roughly as popular as Labour ever was under Helen Clark.
as has been noted constantly however, national have virtually no coalition partners and it only requires a small shift in that popularity to lose them the treasury benches…..as said before when the supports starts to go it will go fast and this may be the beginning (time will tell)…if it proves to be so then perhaps the economic conditions are starting to bite a little more than we have been led to believe
I don’t believe that this nice imagery is necessary true at all.
Also I think that National can remain electable even if Key’s personal popularity is on the slide.
As for coalition partners, NZF is the NAT’s best bet at the moment. I am sure they know it too, even if the thought sticks in their craw.
The NATs are preparing a whole lot of nice election year lollies, is my guess. Just wait until the scramble starts.
i fully expect there to be a lolly scramble…the question is when?
NZ First may be Nationals best bet but is by no means a good bet…a lot will depend on the final poll results i suspect
You may not agree but i feel there has been an element of self fulfilling prophecy around nationals poll numbers and note it is party support not Keys personal (not sure if that was taken)…it is on that basis I think the fall will be fast.
It would appear Labour will not greatly benefit which is unsurprising given they appear to be struggling with direction however the Greens may though not as much as they would have had Donald still been co leader….and Winston of course.
What form any non Nat future gov may take would be difficult to predict at this point but from my perspective is not the main point…removing this dodgy admin is.
I believe a lot of voters hold the view – better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t.
They will need to be presented with something quite different to move on from that position.
“I believe a lot of voters hold the view – better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t.”
and that is quite possibly true….but it doesn’t require “a lot of voters” to unseat National
agreed.
Cheers.
Here I will frame it for you Mickey loud and clear, from a members position. Labour are guilty of their sins going right back to the 2008 loss.
They are carrying the same MP’s, people that the working class can not relate to. And who carries failed leaders election after election. Why no clean out?
Where are blue collar workers amongst the ranks of their MP’s? The party expect people to vote for people they can not relate with.
Labour make you jump through hoops when ‘your the one doing them a favour’ where as other party’s are grateful and are only to pleased to smooth a way to get a result. Not Labour mate they treat you like they are doing you the favour, and if they do decide to run with something do a half arse job and more often than not fuck it up because they know best.
And by the looks the usual suspects have given up on a win next year in preference to hold their place at the trough, again. This has more to do why they are slipping.
I think that’s right. Under Little, Labour will head down to 20%. But Greens and NZ First are both good for 15%. And 20% + 15% + 15% = 50%. Although Winston would insist on being the prime minister, at least for a time, with the majority of ministers and deputy PM being from Labour.
Did Little once poke his tongue out at you MH? Explains your obsessional hatred of him – almost on a par with Rodney Hide’s hatred of Winston Peters.
I don’t hate him at all. He is a perfectly pleasant person. Just a very poor politician (which is actually an attractive trait!)
That isn’t the impression one gets listening to you on the RNZ political segment on a Monday morning.
Ha Ha. Spot on Anne. Impression of Horton, sorry Hooten, Monday morning is absolute BOREDOM!!!! He is the Human Drone! ..On and on and on and ……..Zzzzzzzzzzz! Wake me up before you gogo!.
Oh, Mathias, you are a bit of a card.
(1) National down to its lowest rating in any post-Election poll.
(2) Opposition Bloc’s 54% = Highest in any poll since last Election.
(3) Oppo Bloc’s lead over Govt Bloc by 8 points = Largest since last Election
(4) Govt’s 46% and Broader Right’s 47% = Lowest in any poll since last Election.
(5) First time since last Election that 2 consecutive Roy Morgans have placed Oppo Bloc in lead (until March 2016, more than two-thirds of RMs had Govt Bloc in front).
And, after all that, your verdict ? … Under Little, Labour will head down to 20%.
Hilarious stuff, my luv. Don’t ever change.
🙂
you are saying it so well.
Amazing everyone I’ve read here so far seems to assume Winston would work with a Labour-Green axis. I can’t see that happening. His blue-rinse supporters are far too conservative for that.
IMO his desire to be PM before he retires may overwhelm any hesitance..
And lets not forget that conservatives would like a voice, away from radical neo-liberalism.
They would also be quite happy if Winston was perceived as a break on a Green-Labour alliance. And that many of the burning issues of conservatism are converging with the left to stop a run away corporate state.
Not assuming anything. Just considering possibilities.
I also think you’ll find that your understanding of NZF’s constituency is a wee bit outdated. They may well be toward the morally-conservative end of the spectrum, but there is increasing evidence that they are disproportionately former Labour (rather than, as you imply, National) supporters.
You do realise that there have always been quite a few morally-conservative Labour voters ? (and, indeed, more than a few morally-liberal National ones)
NZ1st is, as a matter of fact, more economically Left-wing than Labour. they tend to also be a little bit more authoritarian but they’re nowhere near the radical right-wing of National.
Agree. I don’t think any of NZF’s policies, taken in isolation, could ever be called ‘centrist’ in a New Zealand context. It’s only when you take an average of their (left of centre) economic policy and their (right of centre) conservative social views that you get, on average, a party of the centre.
It makes NZF difficult bedfellows for both major parties: too socially conservative to work with Lab/Gre; too economically interventionist to work with Nat.
Except for the fact that they did, as a matter of fact, work very well with Labour not too long ago.
Except for the fact that they did, as a matter of fact, work very well with Labour not too long ago.
Very well? That seems like a rose-tinted assessment of the Minister outside cabinet arrangement.
Also, the electoral math after the 2005 election was Lab+NZF or Lab+Gre. That’s a very different set of policy trade offs and choices, compared to the only probable 2017 left-wing government outcome of Lab+Gre+NZF.
Winston will not work with the Greens. He’s made that very clear over the years, and made it clear again earlier this month. Full stop.
What this poll indicates is a Center Right Coalition with a 58% majority and Winnie as Deputy PM / Foreign Minister.
Relying on Winston is a plan only the very desperate would choose. Surely The Left can come up with something a bit more proactive than that?
James,
“Not sure what he’s done to earn the %age..”
Winnie has no responsibility/accountability to the masses and can throw caution to the wind, what a luxury.
Agreed Whateva next. Gary Morgan cited Winston Peter’s ejection from parliament by the speaker as the reason for NZ First’s rise in support, but when that happened to the women from Labour, Greens etc for standing up for victims of sexual abuse, the polls didn’t even register it.
I’m not much of a fan of polls at any time and especially this far out from an election, however, if i was to make an observation it would be that it may be the start of a trend of support bleeding away from the two old parties to the Greens and Winston which from my perspective would be quite believable and most welcome.
Is anyone else finding this site hideously slow ?
Yes, quite a few people (open mike yesterday).
Yes, has been very slow for me just now.
Yep slow indeed
lprent
Hi. Had to wait almost a minute to transfer between pages the other day. Wanted to put up a comment and it wouldn’t submit so opened up another tab, quick, deleted the original comment and put it in the new tab which worked all right.
Some times are slower than others. I think it’s probably an attack of the bots or something.
It’s a full time job keeping systems going effectively.
Hah! Bots or bored school kids and teachers; after all, it is School Holidays.
Glacial, If I was honest , the Standard would probably be one of the slowest sites on the internet.
I think the issue is with the content delivery network, something isn’t quite working.
Why don’t you make a donation toward upgrades or a change in software? You certainly use the place a lot.
Over the last several days the BEST speed i have reached is 5mbsec with spark
That is on fibre.
I usually get 10 +
Looks like something was hogging the database. It was using a hell of a lot of threads. I had to use kill -9 to make the damn thing die.
I suspect that the problem was a new inside wordpress anti-attack tool – a ‘firewall’ on standard attack vectors. Most of which I already have covered using .htaccess.
I don’t think that it handles 18.2k posts all that well because I think that it is doing a hell of a lot of database access remembering ‘good’ URLs.
Either that or the infinite scroll on the mobiles.
Turned the ‘firewall’ off and I’m observing performance for a while.
Still, ordinary users of The Standard would enjoy a consistency of experience.
What can rich and heavy-use potential donors like BM, Puckish Rogue, and Srylands do to help the site they use so often?
Have a look at the page under the donate button. There is a bank account there ready to take money for server costs.
Typical left wing thinking right there, volunteer someone else to pay 🙂
or RW user pays…take your pick
yes it was soooo sloooow…I thought I was banned …i couldnt get on to the Standard….probably just as well
Interesting. Is the NZF result a rogue one or an indication of something really changing?
Also interesting is how close L/G are to overtaking National.
Put it this way. While Labour and National moved 2%, 3.5% relative to a huge support base, NZ First moved up 1/3 (3.5% total) off their smaller support base.
That’s a real move for NZ First IMO.
If Labour hadn’t dropped by 2%, they’d be level-pegging National on these results.
What amazing political insight.
If labour polled at 70% they would be able to govern alone.
If mana polled 20% then the left is all sorted.
In short your analysis is stupid.
Um no it is clear that Lanth can count and you cannot. Add Labour + Green + 2% together and you get …
It’s not “analysis”, it’s just replying to weka where she said that L+G were close to overtaking National. But actually if Labour hadn’t lost ground in this poll, they’d be level-pegging (actually they’d be ahead by 0.5%, assuming the Greens still gained).
So I think actually you’re just stupid and have very poor reading comprehension / the ability to follow a comment thread.
That’s pretty much how I read it (your original comment, and your analysis of james).
Have to take the poll with a pinch of salt – ACT on 1.5%? There’s an artifact if ever there was one. Nevertheless the avalanche seems to have begun.
Stuart, that could reflect a drift from National to ACT due to National breaking promises about new taxes.
Yeah – but more likely is sampling error – a thousand punters? It’s surprising they ever get any meaningful results at all.
Big changes happening out here in the provinces. Not just in Northland either.
Mood at my local Anzac service was for a better future for our young people and this in a National party voting farming district. Folks have finally joined up the dots now all their grandchildren are Aussies! Slow on the uptake these people.Meanwhile the only dairy farmers making money are the organic properties. Was very satisfying for on old hippie who has endured decades of derision.
The hippies are usually right 😉 (it just takes time for the others to catch up).
Winston Peters says things exactly as he sees them – warts n’all.
Lesson for Labour and the Greens? Drop the waffly PC language and do the same. Call a spade a spade and when he/they deserve it, call out Key and co. for what they are… a bunch of shallow, greedy, self-serving pricks. OK, not ‘pricks’ maybe but something that means much the same thing. 👿
Yup. But not going to happen. How many posts hereabouts have made that very same point over time? Quite a few, from memory.
So it’s a fading National, a moribund Labour and a safe Greens…with Winston the fucking Peters deciding the shape of the next government.
Said this a few times. New Zealand needs a fixed term parliament to end this shite whereby relatively minor players get to have a disproportionately major influence on the shape of government.
In order to call things “as they are”, there needs to be a broad consensus on exactly *what* those things are. That consensus is usually owned by conservatives. Therefore, I personally think that “calling a spade a spade” is bullshit, although of course ymmv.
thats pretty much all nonsense mate. The consensus is that both Labour and National are more full of shit than ever.
The consensus that politicians are generally talking crap (and I’m not aware of any consensus on that that si gles out National and Labour politicisns while e cluding all others) also serves conservative aims. Having said that, I don’t really see what your reply has to do with my comment.
I don’t know who you talk to day to day. Most people I talk to think that NZ is underperforming, poorly managed and inadequately led from Wellington.
And more and more people realise that the daily papers and the 6pm news is more full of trivial BS than ever.
As for “serving conservative aims.”
NZ is a conservative country. But it’s not a right wing one. Labour can’t even figure that out so its chances of being able to “call a spade a spade” is minimal to none.
But Winston frequently manages it. Even though according to you the “broad consensus” which allows him to do so belongs to the conservatives.
I’m hard pressed to think of a time when most people I spoke to proffered an opinion that NZ was anything other than an underperforming economy run inefficiently from Wellington. The fact that you hear that everywhere and yet the government retains a decent-to-commanding share of the vote should be enough to suggest that that particular spade might not, in fact, be the shovel that those you talk to are calling it. The reason I am wary of spade-a-spade arguments is that “Iwi-Kiwi”, “lock ’em up and throw away the key” and any number of similarly abhorrent concepts have all been underpinned by such arguments.
By all means, point to specific ideas that should be made plain, or specific framings that are meaningless waffle, and suggest hard alternatives (plenty of that actually goes on around this site already). Simply asking people to “tell it like it is “, however, runs the risk of falling into reactionary populism, since it’s likely to end up with politicians telling people what they think they want to hear based on how they (think they) see the world. After all, if it were that easy to see “what it is” (whatever “it” is), all of our problems would have been solved long ago.
The failure of major left parties around the world to live up to their tradition and heritage is what has been fuelling radical electoral populism.
As for trying to point out better framing and better policies, I tried to do that from within Labour for a few years. But life is too short to keep wasting time on an organisational hierarchy so cocksure of where they are heading.
1. The comment I replied to wasn’t about the generalised failure of “major left parties around the world”.
2. The comment I replied to wasn’t about you.
I guess you cleverly replied your way out of everything then and we can now safely conclude that voters are not looking for politicians willing to call a spade a spade, instead they are looking for even more political double talk and meaningless beltway jargon.
I guess that your replies have art least successfully proved that you now see basically every observation on this site as somehow related to your own particular travails with the Labour Party.
Meanwhile, a actually do firmly believe that any call to “tell it like it is”, no matter how well meant, invites a dangerous tendency towards populism.
So, we can have some democracy, but it has to be carefully managed democracy, lest we spontaneously break out into anarchic or radical populism, which would be far too dangerous a phenomena to allow.
Is that it? A good old fashioned conservative view that one.
Tells you what, lets have more politicians sugar coating, smoothing out and wordsmithing what our civilisation is facing in terms of climate change, in terms of fossil fuel depletion, in terms of financial instability and crony capitalism.
This is clearly necessary because the populace definitely cannot mentally cope with the unvarnished truth of what is coming down the pike towards us at a rapid pace.
So we can continue to have the elite class hiding behind nice sounding phrases and jargon to disguise the fact a while longer that things are deteriorating fast. Pretend and extend continues.
So Labour don’t and Peters does. Which party gets more votes?
Wrong question, IMO. The right question is: which parties are gaining momentum going into 2017, which parties are losing momentum, and which parties are stuck in place.
Right, so look at NZF over time. They always go up and down but stay roughly in the same place. Which suggests that calling a spade a spade is useful at times, but doesn’t really change much over the long term for NZF. In other words, this rise is entirely consistent with their history, both of polling/elections, and Peters being good at what he does, but it’s not inherently an indication of an ongoing upward trend.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_First#Electoral_results_.281993.E2.80.932014.29
http://pundit.co.nz/content/poll-of-polls
You’re looking at history. I’m looking at which parties are gaining (and losing) momentum going into the next election – which I reckon is about 16 months away now.
Yes, I’m looking at how NZF’s momentum has worked in the past. If you have some ideas about why it’s different now, please share.
weka, today NZF is at a 20 year high. You couldn’t have predicted that by looking at NZF’s history before the 2014 election. So why are you trying now.
I’m not the one doing the predicting. You are (apparently).
In the past, NZF have been higher than they are now. If you look at their history you can see it’s normal for them to have big ups and downs. You can compare this to the GP who have quite a different pattern. I’m suggesting (not predicting), that this pattern of NZF fits somewhat with the theory about calling a spade a spade, but isn’t necessarily an indication of an upward trend. By all means critique my analysis.
You seemed to be equating calling a spade a spade with NZF’s single high poll, and that this is a sign of upward momentum. It’s not very logical though, because Peters has always called a spade a spade and that hasn’t translated into consistent high polling, so what’s the difference now?
That’s me suggesting that politics is far more complex than the idea that if L and the Greens just spoke more strongly they’d do better at the polls. There are other good reasons they might want to speak plainly but I’m not sure doing it to get more votes is a winner.
You are so right if they just got stuck into the bastards people would look up and take notice. I have bean left wing all my adult life but I do not think i will be voting Labour in the next election, they are to wishy washy.
Its inevitable that Winston takes the lead with his Party – he is the ONLY spokesperson for it. None of his other MPs get a look-in. Added to which, he’s now the Northland MP which is giving him plenty of ammunition to fire at the Nats.
Its unfortunate Labour has this albatross of an etiquette / convention that they give their spokespeople room/ space to speak out on their various portfolios, and although they do a good job, its not the Leader speaking out each time. Maybe its time for Labour to take a leaf out of NZ First’s book and only ever have the Leader speaking !!
What I’m more interested in, is what is Shon Key’s personal polling as preferred PM – has that slipped ? Does anyone have that info ?
Jenny as someone trying very hard to get some much needed runs on the board for Labour it is bitterly disappointing they treat us so poorly in return.
Today I got given the worst insult ever from anyone in a political party by someone who is in a key position within the LP. They got called out for not doing their job. Labour are on notice if this isn’t sorted out then I am out and you know what that means so are others.
+1 Jenny. Inequality is now harming middle NZ, where is our Bernie? Labour should be the party beating the drum for socialism but they cannot while infested with Neolibs.. Their ideas are fractured. Cunliffe needs to be in a senior role and as the mouthpiece for the party.. Hes very bloody good when cornered, brilliant on finance… Fuck off Robertson, King, Mallard, Cosgrove, Goff… just fuck off..
Yes, it is time for Labour to put Little front and centre all the time, that will sort things.
what could possibly go wrong!
It looks like National’s support is being shaken loose.
Another bold prediction. In the spirit of a thousand bold predictions since 2007.
My favourite: r0b from 2007:
Labour’s support base is solid, have been through the fires of 8 years of government. National’s support base is recent, and soft. I look forward to seeing it evaporate as Key’s honeymoon is over
http://thestandard.org.nz/key-losing-his-mojo/#comment-2424
Labour’s support base is solid! National’s support base is soft! Two National terms later, Labour gets its worst result since 1928.
Keep up the predictions. One day, they will come true.
People think that National support took a big hit, dropping 3.5%.
But in this poll, Labour’s support has taken almost as big a hit as National, proportionately.
“Labour’s support has taken almost as big a hit”.
I think it was extremely good luck for Labour that polling had finished before Little’s brain fart about Hagaman and the hotel management contract in Niue.
If he had come out with that insane set of accusations a few weeks earlier Labour would have been down at about 20% and would probably be trailing New Zealand First. He came over as a complete idiot.
You don’t want Little fronting all the party statements. You want him gagged and kept totally away from the press if Labour hope to improve.
The Hagaman stuff will come out in the wash for both National and Labour over the next two Roy Morgans.
“Labour gets its worst result since 1928”
Well that’s bollocks for a start !!! … it was the worst result since 1922. 🙂
Anne, Winston can get away with it (mostly). No one in Labour or the Greens have the same ability to get away with “murder” by that I reference Winston calling out Asians, Maori etc…very un PC like.
Winston knows how to work the voters, he is a true professional politician to the core. One day things will catch up with Winston, after all he does have the most skeletons buried around the beehive!!
No matter what the die hearts say, Labour is going the wrong way in the polls…they are in danger of no longer being the dominant opposition party come 2017.
People forget who Winston learned the art of politics from at their peril.
“One day things will catch up with Winston”
He is already beginning to resemble Roger Douglas in his last term.
#onetoomany
Looks like the righties can’t bear to vote left yet. Although there’s sure to be some surprise left wing policies within NZ First that they’re not aware of… though is anyone aware of NZ First policies.
Is it me or does Roy Morgan tend to overstate the Greens vote share at the expense of Labour?
Yep, the Roy Morgans are always good for the Greens and poorer than the other public pollsters for Labour (on average since last Election). Not sure you can say “overstate”, though. That implies they’re definitely wrong and one or all of the other pollsters are right.
42.5% does not equal government.
Time to give more of a profile to Jacinda. She would be our first ‘celebrity ‘Labour politician. She’s young, smart, has loads of charisma and represents the new generation of politicians. The trouble with Andrew Little is that he is quite hard to hear as his voice is not that clear and he often talks to the media on a poor quality cellphone, so many media opportunities are wasted.
Can’t labour afford an iPhone?
Little won promote her as she would rapidly overtake him in the preferred pm stakes and would be a threat to his leadership.
You nearly got the post right but still came up with an error.
Sucks to be you.
This is not a personal remark so please don’t take it as such: you have to be fucking shitting me.
She’s not that young, she’s not that smart, and having been in Parliament since 2008 she’s not the new generation.
Andrew Little got in 2011 so he is a newer generation than Jacinda.
Is there nothing you don’t hate about the Labour party since the break up of your local chapter?
Way to hold a grudge!
you’re backing Jacinda as future leadership material then?
Yes. She has all the attributes you and all the other haters of the Labour Party consider relevant to leadership, namely charisma.
You’ve actually met her, heard her speak in person and talked with her right?
No. I’ve not yet heard or met John Key in person either, yet he’s been prime minister for 8 years.
This is a new requirement from the house of CV. One must personally know, and have spoken to the person you intend to support.
Can’t imagine you forming any personal relationships in the real world, CV.
Correct me if I am wrong.
So you’re rating Jacinda high on charisma, but have never met her, heard her speak in person or talked to her before.
Is this some new definition of “charisma” that I am not aware of?
One that’s pretty good for a media driven society.Someone who never met her finds her charismatic? That’s a voter. Personally I met her once and found her lively and enthusiastic.
OK enthusiasm cool, did you find her charismatic or inspiring?
Her enthusiasm did seem to be contagious, yes.
Your a total fool if you think Adern has the smarts to be Leader. She would last 5 minutes and be found out. What has she ever done in parliament since 2008?
All she has done is believe her own legend she is the next Helen Clark. She is deluded and an untrustworthy back stabber with whoever she could scam with. Currently Robertson and granny King.
Are you a woman hater? A homophobe? An ageist? It seems like it from your rant there.
It does’t look like you will be taking part in the next progressive government, Skinny.
A perfect exposition revealing Modern NZ Labour.
That you even made such a statement is simply unbelievable.
Labour’s apparently got so many mates at the moment it can start ditching them on a whim.
Think I will do the right thing for the good of the former worker’s party and spend next year attacking them through the media at every opportunity, ya know dropping in the lines that kiwis can relate too. ” and labour take no real position again or well their been around long enough to know better than that”
I can understand the way that Act and National push their greedy free market scum practices because of their ideological positions.
But Labour are guilty as sin for letting these fuckwits within the party ruin it with shit policy and crap self centreed MP’s. MP’s that needed the axe taken to them in 2008 and are still fucking there. That is 3/4 of them.
Lastly I don’t care what someones sexuality is, but I do know wheat from chaff. So think I will go campaign for the Green candidate vote in Auckland central and rip her to bits publicly. Oh and Muttonhead don’t count your chickens as I am very much respected in the NZF camp so go fuck ya yaself!
lol Skinny…i agree about the “smarts to be leader”…she aint got it darling but the myth prevails…Granny King has more smarts and charisma in her little finger
Sirenia: “Time to give more of a profile to Jacinda.”
Unforgettable parliamentary moments. Paul Bennett to Jacinda: “Zip it sweetie!”
If Paula had said that to Annette King, Annette would have smashed her into the gallery. Jacinda ain’t ready yet.
Jacinda will never be ready …she has been in there long enough to prove her worth…
I’ve been trying to point this out on and off since last winter. No improvement. Little needs training to direct his voice better and he needs a decent cell phone.
LISTEN UP SOMEONE.
Little had days of media training with professionals when he became Leader.
Little ain’t up to it either…but Cunliffe was…whatever his other mistakes Cunliffe portrayed youth and integrity and a real Left commitment and alternative to jonkey nact
( unfortuntely , although the rank and file Labour Party supported Cunliffe…he was not supported by the oligarchy careerist Labour politicians…and jonkey nactional perceived him as a real threat and went after him using the msm)
Hi Chooky (12.4.1.1) Agree with you here.
I’ve stated this on another blogsite (TDB), but Labour needs a mini revolution and to hell with their rules of electing a leader and put David Cunliffe up there again. Sometimes a bit of a revolt works positively, as I’m sure would be the case, with Cunliffe as leader once more. He is able to hold his own against FJK and his band of dark corrupt corporate bangers!
However, the only problem I can see here, is msm, crucifying Cunliffe as it did before, obviously under strict instruction from most devious and vile leader!
FJK knows David Cunliffe is the only likely threat (coming from Labour) to his hold on power and lucrative future and this scares the bejesus out of him. So he resorts to the only means he knows how to save himself. That’s playing dirty!
Yeah the ABC knew it too, so down with him.
Unfortunately Cunliffe radiated an air of arrogance and smarminess which just didn’t sit well with most New Zealanders.
Not at all – a vicious an unrelenting media campaign set out to smear him – as bad as the one against Ed Milliband. The public didn’t see much Cunliffe – they got Audrey Young, John Armstrong and Fran O’Sullivan using the same hatchets they used on Shearer. Shearer deserved them more.
Smarmy arrogance – that’s Key’s version of democracy – NZ the way Wall Street wants it no matter what people say. Well people won’t tolerate that forever – and the distraction attacks on the opposition rather than reporting the myriad failures of Key’s vile kleptocracy, can’t last. Would’ve been different if any of their policies worked, or they cared enough to make them work – but NZ is going down in a screaming heap. $150 billion in debt this year – the tar is heating and and we’re saving feathers.
+100 Stuart Munro
… and yet the fog of arrogance and smarminess which surrounds our PM, just makes him a “top bloke”.
(BTW, I found Cunliffe quite easy to listen to and understand. Likable).
Yep Cunliffe is a very likeable guy, and still the best potential leader out of that entire bunch. But he won’t get another chance, thanks to his lovely caucus colleagues.
With the all-out attacks that were made on him it is very hard to call that one way or the other. You’re just spinning, and very crudely at that.
“he needs a decent cell phone”
Pass the hat around…
Maybe the time if right for old whitish leftish men. Winston probably sees himself as our Corbyn or Sanders.
Trump.
He has the Trump vanity in spades
Jacinda has ‘presence’ like Helen Clark does. When she walks into a room she radiates charisma. And she appeals to many of those who don’t usually notice politicians or vote. Even Paula Bennett said recently that she admires her.
now you’re just taking the piss.
But sure, give Jacinda a shot at the top job, why not everyone will get a go now.
PS she will have to line up behind Robertson.
Well that’s the safest place to stand when he’s around.
BOOOOM
“she walks into a room she radiates charisma”
You probably won’t agree but the female leader who had the most charisma was Jenny Shipley. I was at a number of functions in the late 90s and early part of this century where the PM of the time was present.
When Shipley came into the room there was an immediate hush and people turned toward her. Clark’s entry to a room had nothing like that effect. Shipley had a vastly greater sway over the crowd than Helen Clark did.
I didn’t actually like either of them but as far as charisma goes Shipley had it in spades
Bollocks – she had no charisma at all. When I was PPTA Branch Chairman she came to our school to officially plant a tree. We got introduced. She looked at me, did a double-take, and in her eyes (which shot upwards) she went into Pause, Rewind, Wait a bit, then Play: Out came a load of pre-prepared clichés.
When she saw I was unimpressed she moved on.
She impressed only the converted. That would be you, Alwyn.
I perceived her as an empty vessel. A cassette recorder with nearly-flat batteries.
I know several teachers who quit when Jenny joined their school. Neither charismatic nor professional. A vicious sow.
lol…open season on politicians
…have to say i never thought Jenny Shipley had much charisma, although she was honest about some women’s issues and I think depression and motherhood , her own in particular…so she deserves respect for her frankness…she was like a sailing ship into a room but a self- interested one as it turned out …like Ruth Richardson…and most Nacts….and not necessarily good for the country
…. Helen Clark was way more intelligent and charismatic and ethical and modest…her smile could light up a room…and it certainly charmed kids ( my son and some older males)….she is a very warm genuine person imo
….I wish her well as United Nations General Secretary ?…she would be an excellent choice for the job
Progressives are destroying Labour not Andrew Little. He’s doing the best he can with a poorly disciplined divided rabble.
Labour’s message has always been about raising the aspirations of the working class. Allowing them to move into the middle class, buy houses, educate their kids, improve their lot in life.
That’s all fine, but its a message that has been completely clouded over by the progressives.
Rather than focus on these fine objectives we have
– Global warming bullshit
– Gender bullshit
– Other “environmentalist” bullshit (anti-coal for example)
– Multicultural bullshit
– and a whole bunch of other likewise bullshit pushed by left wing academics in cloistered staffrooms who’ve never dug a ditch for a sewer line or poured a concrete driveway in their useless lives.
Get the academic jerkoffs pushing these false issues away from your party’s management and get down to earth Labour people in their places. Get Andrew Little back on track with the above mentioned aspirational objectives and back him up on them. Don’t distract him or undermine him or divide the party with the bullshit I have listed.
There’s your way forward. Forget about changing leaders again, its the party that needs an arse kicking.
So according to you, Labour’s problems are basically anything ending in “bullshit”? I’d call that a refreshing perspective if that were what it was.
Bedwetter is always reliable on his disdain for any leftish views. Not so flash at distinguishing Labour from Green ones, perhaps.
You could call them “issues” if you wish. He’s still correct though.
Women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, and racial equality are not optional ‘extras’. Labour is the party that stands up for *all* New Zealanders. Not just working class white males.
We should stand for ensuring equality for all not just based on class, but also based on sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, age, and ethnicity. Helping a white working class family buy a home is no less important than helping a young trans* person get the support they need so they don’t feel suicidal. Fighting for equal pay to ensure women aren’t paid less than men is an important thing to do.
Tackling climate change is also important. We’re not going to even be able to have a planet for future generations to live in, let alone buy a house, if we don’t have a healthy, low-carbon country.
It’s important to ensure Labour connects with its main constituency. But Labour has always been a progressive party that stands up for the rights of the marginalised: whether you’re poor, a person of colour, or LGBT.
“We should stand for ensuring equality for all not just based on class, but also based on sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, age, and ethnicity. ”
Go for it.
Split your party further.
Drive it even further down in the polls.
Too dull to pick that the cultural mood is drifting away from a set of issues that was never very well supported anyway.
Frankly, it matters little to me that your opportunity to displace National is fading fast. This lack of care either way enables me to be objective enough to see Labour’s problems.
If Labour keeps listening to the whining of brainwashed students with minds completely destroyed by Progressive academics it will be along time before they displace National.
National has Labour’s number on this. Labour apparently doesn’t know that yet.
Your mistake is thinking that it is worth the Labour Party’s while appealing to people like you.
Labour needs votes it’s a political party that supposedly represents a broad Church. Your pias attitude towards others that you think are of less worth than your own views is exactly while Labour are stuffed Hanswurst.
Concisely put, and spot on IMO.
So where’s the cultural mood shifting to CV?
Give the LGBT’s to Serco to look after?
I know you’re not stupid.
Transnational vultures like Serco and Compass have no place in NZ.
Further, if you think that a political party based on
is what the NZ electorate is looking for right now, good luck to you.
Yeah silly me, forget Serco. But the Dept. of Corrections will be ok will it?
NO NZ Govt. will lock-up or discriminate my lesbian daughter while I’m alive.
Maybe you are an idiot. But I don’t think so.
Just note that you’re the only one who is talking about locking up homosexuals. And I have no idea why you brought it up. Are you aching to pick a moral righteous fight where there is none?
You do know that Key has gay Cabinet members right???
When you voice support for the bigot redbaiter who suggests the LGBT community don’t deserve equal rights I get concerned. We all know where the end game goes when those outdated prejudices take over.
Luckily I believe you and bedwetter are wrong about the cultural mood and the NZ sense of fairness.
FFS I agreed with the comment I quoted. I didn’t sign up to a fan club.
And I agree with you about the NZ sense of treating people fairly.
But they’re never ever going to decide National vs Labour primarily on issues of identity politics.
“NO NZ Govt. will lock-up or discriminate [sic] my lesbian daughter while I’m alive”
Does that include locking up after conviction for a crime, or discrimination on the grounds of (shock, horror) merit?
Just saying, you’re agreeing with someone who is a far-right racist who blogs about how sad it is that white people make up a smaller percentage of the population now…
Anyway, answer this: why should Labour not tolerate economic inequality and exploitation while ignoring LGBTQ inequality, gender inequality, and racial inequality? Isn’t someone being marginalised from society because they are in poverty bad, just like someone being marginalised from society because they’re trans or Maori?
Labour can do anything they want, they’re on to a winning formula and should keep on their track.
I think they should bang on about it, and on and on, until everyone is convinced of their rightness and moral shininess. That always works.
As I said before, women’s rights and LGBTQ rights aren’t optional “extras”. It doesn’t really matter to me if it’s out of step with “middle NZ”. Of course, individual policies and messaging may need to be altered to ensure middle NZ voters aren’t alienated, but we have to have principle. Human rights aren’t just something we can ignore because some people might get upset about it.
Most people commenting on this blog wouldn’t stand for someone being marginalised from society because they’re poor. Why would you stand for someone being marginalised from society because they’re trans, gay, or not white?
A terrifyingly high percentage of trans young people are depressed and/or attempt suicide. The Maori imprisonment rate is many times higher than the non-Maori imprisonment rate. Women earn less than men because of their gender – and women of colour even less! No one should tolerate these inequalities.
I’m in the Labour party because I believe in social democracy and fighting for working people. And I don’t think social issues should replace Labour’s traditional values of economic justice. But social justice is important, and we can’t just stand idly by while young trans people are killing themselves because of attitudes from people like yourself who dismiss their very human rights.
GR2020 mate, it’ll be huge.
+1 Well said Michael.
Agree there, RB. Labour need to pick some issues that resonate with middle NZ, not fringe issues that are irrelevant (or in the case of global warming, fraudulent)
Yep, Labour need to open their eyes to the massive gap that exists between them and the man in the street on these issues.
Most Labour voting guys I know, (rough men) have nothing but contempt for them.
Oh look a far right love in
Fringe – no wonder people think you libertarians are smug wankers.
It the ease of the lies I find interesting – Libertarian = lie to self.
Do you lie to yourself Richard McGrath? or is it you can’t read any science papers? Do you think the CIA, the US military are wrong, the overwhelming majority of the scientific community, NASA, oh and anyone engaged with the issue – is out right wrong?
What I think libertarians need to deal with real issues rather than having another masturbatory session with Any Rand. They also need to realise that they are not middle NZ.
I’m talking about fringe issues, not fringe political parties. FYI, major issues include: employment, the economy, health and social welfare.
Yes I read scientific papers and abstracts, and there is enough healthy scepticism of the AGW hypothesis (and it is still a hypothesis) to keep me suspicious that this whole issue is just another anti-prosperity green propaganda campaign.
🙄
Those Greenies at NASA and the Pentagon.
What a dullard.
Maybe a dullard, but certainly a sceptic, especially when it’s governments that are pushing the warmist agenda so frantically
Sharpen up, Wormtongue: first you dribble that it’s the Greens, then you dribble that it’s the government. How many green parties are in government on your planet?
The warmist agenda? You mean Physics, dullard.
“What I think libertarians need to deal with real issues rather than having another masturbatory session with Any Rand”
Not only is this grammatically incorrect, but the spelling is ‘Ayn’.
“They also need to realise that they are not middle NZ.”
You got that right.
interesting…..an aberration or a trend?
Because of the smallish sample sizes and varying methodologies between pollsters, usually have to get 3-4 from the same pollster in a row and then look for a trend.
should have said the beginning of a trend
Who is publishing poll-of-poll trends nowadays?
Can I just suggest that we wait a few months to see if a trend develops?
As for what Labour gets in 2017 – I’d suggest that if you voted for Cunliffe and his fratricidal friends in 2014, you won’t be switching your vote next time. At some point you hit “rusted on” vote, and I think Labour in 2014 hit that.
Robertson, Ardern, Twyford, etc. the “new generation” are only ever “friends” to themselves.
No, I suspect the bottom for Labour is in the high teens.
Surely you are all aware that the next Roy Morgan poll will have nats back up
This is not the first time it has had national this low
In fact before the last election it had nats this low in polls and they went on to win.
This is National’s lowest rating in any poll since the last Election.
This is the first time since the last Election that 2 consecutive Roy Morgans have placed the Opposition in front.
Bob. If memory serves, no the pollsters didn’t, the polls had National a lot higher than the results of election night.
Mid term poll – about right
See my previous predictions
Now here where it will unravel.
Labour and Greens will cuddle up to Winston – Winston will play the long game and as per usual just before the election there will be in-fighting between the 3 parties.
hereis one very simple problem which everyone has forgotten. While NZF might end up holding the balance of power based on these polls – the preferred PM stakes while get National over the lines.
Look everyone – a numerate wingnut who understands MMP!
A great leap forward.
Just looking for the poll of polls and come across this at Pundit. Thought the comparison of the GP and NZF polling was interesting 😉 it’s not that NZF are hugely popular, it’s that our system privileges parties in the centre.
http://pundit.co.nz/content/poll-of-polls
If National’s support has ‘plunged’ in this poll then Labour’s has nose dived.
Over the last two public polls, National’s support has been volatile; up in the CB and down in the RM.
On the other hand, Labour’s support has gone down to the mid to high 20’s in both.
My sense is that there will be a close relationship between NZ First and National in forthcoming polls – I mean by this that when NZF’s numbers go up; National’s will go down and visa versa. This speaks to a potential government being formed by these two parties in 2017.
Labour however will not move much from where it currently sits and will become increasingly weak and irrelevant.
So if I’m reading the poll correctly (and does this mean Roy Morgan polls are now believed again?) National has dropped 3.5% to still be in the low 40s, Labour has dropped 2% to be mid 20s, the Greens have increased 0.5% to 14.5% (I didn’t realise they were so high but well done to them) and Winston has jumped 3.5% to 12.5%
Not sure why this is considered a good result for the left though
It’s not. It shows that even as National declines, the parties of the so-called Left, Labour and Greens, won’t get much if anything, from it.
The left will grab anything they can as positive. I have said it before and will say it again. Labour need to get their act together to become an opposition that is showing it is a party that is waiting to take over as the government. Unfortunately this lot do not and polls show that. Sad that the left have to now cosy up to Winnie to feel good and think they stand a chance to be the next government.
Labour are not dead they have simply been displaced by the Greens and NZFirst. That’s what MMP is all about. Allowing other parties to offer disenchanted voters an alternative voice.
In this case it looks like Labour and National supporters have jumped ship. Its shows there are good decent people on both sides of the political divide who care about NZ.
Now if we could just get an entrenched Bill of Rights as proposed by Geoff Palmer we would truly have a country worth living in.
Bill of Rights another futile piece of paper by political parties heading in the wrong direction.
William Smith: “Labour are not dead they have simply been displaced …”
Voter: ‘Ello, I wish to register a complaint. I wish to complain about this Political Party that I voted for just 2 years ago
Activist: Oh yes, the Labour Party, what’s, er … what’s wrong with it then ?
Voter: I’ll tell you what’s wrong with it, my lad. It’s dead, that’s what’s wrong with it !
Activist: No, no, it’s just … ah … resting
Voter: Look matey, I know a dead Political Party when I see one, and I’m looking at one right now.
Activist: No, no, it’s not dead, it’s just resting. Remarkable Political Vehicle, the New Zealand Labour Party, beautiful plumage !
Voter: The plumage don’t enter into it, Sonny. It’s stone dead !
Activist: No, no, it’s resting
Voter: All right then. if it’s resting I’ll wake it up. ELLO, LABOUR PARTY, WAKEY, WAKEY, Testing, testing, testing, this is your nine o’clock alarm call !!!
(takes Labour out of the cage, thumps its head on the counter, throws it up in the air and watches it plummet to the floor). Now, that’s what I call a Dead Party !!!
Activist: No, no, it’s stunned.
Voter: STUNNED ???
Activist: Yeah, you stunned it, just as it was waking up. The Labour Party stuns easily.
Voter: I’ve had quite enough of this. This Party is deceased, it’s a stiff, bereft of life, it has ceased to exist. It’s metabolic processes are now history, it rests in peace. It has gone to meet its maker.
Activist: No, no, it’s pining for the fjords.
Voter: PINING FOR THE FJORDS ??? What kind of talk is that ??? The Party’s fallen flat on its back !
Activist: Oh no, the New Zealand Labour Party prefers kipping on its back. Remarkable Party isn’t it ? Beautiful plumage.
Voter: Look, I took the liberty of examining the Party when I got home and discovered the only reason its MPs had been sitting on the Oppostion benches in the first place was that they’d been nailed there.
Activist: Well, of course they’d been nailed there. If we hadn’t nailed those Labour MPs down they would have shot across the floor of the House and decimated the Government benches … VOOM !!!
Voter: VOOM ??? Mate, this Party couldn’t “Voom” if you put 4 million volts through it !
It’s bleedin’ demised !!! It’s shuffled off it’s mortal coil and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible !!! If you hadn’t nailed it to the Opposition benches, it’d be pushing up the daisies right now ! THIS IS AN EX-PARTY !!!
Very good Swordfish. Very true. It is a dead party!!
Mate, you’re right, this party blows chunks, now where can I find the after-party?
lol…..tootsies and beck in the air…dead as a dodo
The real interest to me was this poll is only of 843 people, surely that is not a representative sample, yet people are taking it as read. I think the people who run these polls should be quoting margins of error with them.
poll is only of 843 people, surely that is not a representative sample
Dismissively glib response:
Next time you get a blood test from a doctor, you should demand s/he takes all of it from you. Just to be sure s/he’s getting a representative sample of your inner workings.
More considered response:
Those 843 responses are not entirely random. Depending on the polling company, responses are selected in one or more of a few different ways to ensure a broadly accurate cross section of the public (over various demographic metrics) is sampled.
Similar comments on National Business Review..
Slanted towards the left.
Obviously phoned more beneficiaries.
Slanted against the right. etc etc
NZH still busy writing the Nat script for the Morgan Poll?
@ Tautoko Mangō Mata (26) probably trying to spin out a distraction or two I’d say. Bit difficult at the moment to invent something quite irrelevant, with FJK coming back from China empty handed, with no pandas on the agenda now!
Hmm … wonder what Key junior is up to?
Without alternative media sites to keep us informed, we would be non the wiser about the RM poll.
Panama papers seem to have disappeared from msm. Other than David Cunliffe attempting to keep the issue alive, all has gone quiet on media front with this one.
The Labour Party does need a broom swept through it, at the moment nobody seems to know what they stand for, just a watered down centrist party just like National. The people need a point of difference, right now both parties want to sit on the fence in the centre but there are far too many people in NZ now that are far to behind the centre struggling literally to stay alive.
Why cannot Labour see this, and see that they need to turn to the people in need and formulate vision for their future. Why would anybody struggling on low wages, renting because they cannot buy a house, see their grandchildren/children never owning a home or buggering off overseas never to come home again – want to vote for Labour who isn’t recognising their struggle and and when they do get good ideas just water them down when they think it won’t reflect well with the ballot box. Why don’t they just take that risk, formulate stuff and stick with it, which resonates with these people and see what happens, at the moment they have nothing to lose anyway with the polls as they are.
The disenfranchised need a Saviour and Labour ain’t gonna cut it, they have no Saviour and so the people just shrug and say bitterly (I know because I hear them) “why vote, nothing ever gets changed, they don’t listen to the likes of us”. This is true as I am frequently in and out of charity shops and I hear them all the time say this. Labour is going nowhere right now and this country is the poorer for a lack of choice at the ballot box.
Another thing, my punt for the future for Labour is the wild card Michael Wood if he can win Goff’s seat. A likeable man, eloquent and genuine, has experience with local affairs, on the cosmetic side he is easy on the eye and has the prerequisite wife and children and he has the people’s back and wants change for the future.
Serious question here and no doubt there’ll be cries of “troll” but here goes:
Should Labour voluntarily wind itself up and restart under a new banner and/or new governing rules?
Yes Labour should sink Neolibs and all. A new party with fierce new ideas should emerge with the real lefty thinkers. Clear strategy. The TPPA hesitation and wavering was nail in the coffin for me. Polling could well be reflecting that.
There are few inspirational minds in Labour. I follow Bryan Bruce on facebook and love his well reasoned posts, his research and genuine values. I follow Winston too – hes harsh abrasive but gets thousands of likes and he is, if nothing else totally consistent. Hes been warning about tax havens and immigration for years.
Only other person i read is Cunliffe – he speaks his values well. He should start a party, otherwise we’re all screwed..
600,000 saw a difference last election.
I agree about disenfranchisement, but I’m not sure it’s just down to “no saviour”. Barrabus had the popular support over Jesus, remember.
reasons why (imo) Labour is not attractive as a real alternative Opposition leader of a Left coalition
… Little Labour supports :
* overseas agencies spying on New Zealanders
* increasing NZ troops to the Middle East at the USA’s request, to fight an ISIS war which USA started and probably supports…hence putting NZ troops in danger of wasting their lives to a bogus cause.
* it does NOT support KiwiBank as a strong viable government guaranteed Bank for New Zealanders (prefers to downgrade KiwiBank and continue to let the OZ banks take billions out of New Zealand)
* started talking about NZ being a Republic sooner, after Jonkey Nactional lost his bid with $26 million NZ taxpayer dollars to change the NZ flag ie Little is politically incompetent to capitalise on jonkey Nactionals failures…he should have been rubbing in the cost (the Republican idea was dismissed by Bill English with derision, hence turning Nactionals flag failure into a small PR advantage for Nactional)…
* failed to Oppose TPPA for a very long time and then only partially ( pale blue support for USA corporate robbers)
* supports Hillary Clinton and presumably her Middle East crimes
* ….as soon as Labour defied its own Labour grassroots vote support for David Cunliffe the writing was on the wall for a shell neolib party….Nactional was delighted…they now have a tamed stooge supportive Labour Party
… of course the loyal Labour Party ones will still support Labour …but the rest of us who want more action and a greater alternative to jonkey nact will happily go to NZF and the Greens…so no great loss for a Left coalition win
….the best news is that jonkey nact is on the ropes…and on the way out!!!
….the best news is that jonkey nact is on the ropes…and on the way out!!!
– And its comments like this that keep me coming back to this site 🙂
Yep chooky running around with his head chopped off with that comment
Excellent list Chooky. I would only add that Labour started the rot in New Zealand with Rogernomics and to my knowledge has never apologised for it.
Labour loyalists seem bemused that some of us on the left no longer support Labour but don’t seem to realise how deeply some of us still feel this betrayal. As someone who has voted left all my life I no longer trust Labour and see no signs it has learned from its past mistakes. I see them as part of the problem rather than any solution.
I don’t trust Peters either and that’s why I’ve returned to the fold of the Greens.
Labour loyalists seem bemused that some of us on the left no longer support Labour but don’t seem to realise how deeply some of us still feel this betrayal. As someone who has voted left all my life I no longer trust Labour and see no signs it has learned from its past mistakes. I see them as part of the problem rather than any solution.
My feelings too. I remember Rogernomics well, despise its present neoliberal National-Lite incompetence and find devotion to a mere name inexplicable if a party refuses for years on end to live up to its name.
A capable and committed socialist party will earn my vote. The parliamentary caucus calling itself “Labour” does not own it.
Grey Area and Rhinocrates that was over 30 years ago!!! Labour under Helen Clark had a successful 9 years in government since then.
And this ladies and gentlemen is the EXACT modern day Labour attitude re: Rogernomics and Labour opening the neoliberal floodgates in NZ.
It is a total lack of understanding of how Labour fucked up entire communities, entire towns, entire families:
Geee whizz Joe, haven’t you forgotten about your parents marriage breaking up when your Dad lost his job at the railways, your Mum becoming an alcoholic and Dad blaming it all on himself when your childhood home was put under a mortgagee sale, I mean, that was 30 years ago now, how could you still hold a grudge against Labour, especially after Aunty Helen?
Fuck these Thorndon Bubble idiots with the memory of a goldfish.
Lol you are such a drama queen Colonial Viper. Is that what happened to you? Do you blame John key for Muldoon too? Why blame the current Labour party for what a Labour government did 30+ years ago? Its senseless and serves no useful purpose.
You’ve missed the point. It’s not what Labour did 30 years ago, it’s what they’ve continued to do and still doing that is the problem. Clark was a good PM for NZ given to situation we were in but she did unforgivable anti-left things too and helped cement NZ in its current centre right position.
The talk is always about 30+ years ago. Has everyone conveniently forgotten the 4th National government? That’s a point being missed. It was the 4th National government that cemented neoliberalism after David Lange, and National ended up doing far worse after they promised they wouldnt continue in Labour’s footsteps, and Bolger/Richardson/Shipley were in power for 3 terms!!
They’re not mutually exclusive. Clark had the chance to move NZ in a certain direction, she didn’t, she kept us on the centre right and here we still are. Not all her fault, just shorthanding. You are still missing the point.
Was Clark elected to do anything else from what she said her government would do? Labour under Clark kept all of their promises and created stability.
“Labour under Clark kept all of their promises and created stability.”
Did she promise to do most likely irreparable damage to our social welfare benefit system? Well, she did do that. Just not sure if she promised it beforehand, though.
+1 Chris. She also further entrenched Eurocentric supremacy and racism via Foreshore and Seabed Act. And created a good solid coalition partner for the right that still exists today.
That and the welfare issue have had huge impacts on NZ society, and are part of her cementing us into the centre right. In 1999 there was an opportunity to start recovering for both the 80s and the National 90s. Labour certainly created stability for NZ but at the expense of many people and by squandering the opportunity of recovery.
Leftie I’m not sure if your obtuseness is deliberate or not. Clark did good things, and she did some unforgivable things. Why is that so hard to acknowledge?
I can understand the division that Labour’s introduction of the Foreshore and Seabed Act caused, but I understood it as a means to prevent it from being privatized. Keeping it in government hands ensured everyone had access, which might not have been the case otherwise, but I see the other side of the argument too, so for me, it’s a catch 22.
Has the Foreshore and Seabed changed much under John key? Yet the Maori party still prop them up. Did the Maori Party walk away from National when John Key sold the water rights when he solid off the power companies?
You talk of the “welfare issue” yet again you completely ignored the brutality of the previous National government and what they did. In comparison which government do you think was worse? Shit look at what Key’s government has done. I compare governments. No party in power is perfect, far from it and I don’t understand why people think that they should be. My point was, right or wrong, Clark governed how she said she would, she didn’t pretend otherwise, like John key does.
BTW Chris, she promised nothing of the sort.
It’s a false argument leftie. I’m not saying that Labour were as bad or worse than National. I (and others) are saying that Labour could have been so much better than they were. Clark had 3 terms, they weren’t hanging on by the skin of their teeth. The decisions they made were because they wanted to continue to support neoliberalism lite. That’s why people are so angry. We would all be well past Rogernomics by now if Labour hadn’t kept doing that shit.
Is it really a false argument Weka? I doubt that very much that people could ever get past Rodger Douglas. Labour to some will always be damned if they do, and damned if they don’t, despite those responsible being long gone. You still don’t get it. There are a lot factors you are not taking into consideration, what Labour inherited, and that unlike National, Labour has to tread far more carefully so as not to scare the horses for example. It goes without saying that every government can do better, but its a balancing act, working with who and what they have at that time etc and forces always on the ready to attack, so its never ideal is it? I saw Clark as a centre left, and I can’t see how she could have gotten away with doing it differently anyway.
What about now… the present…
What about how National has F up entire communities, entire towns, entire families right now Colonial Viper?
How many people have been made jobless, homeless, broke, poverty stricken and desperately ill right now because of National Colonial Viper?
I agree with you that National have continued the destructive neoliberalism that Labour opened the door to in 1984, and that Labour has since then consistently refused to apologise for, and that Labour today refuses to renounce.
Always an excuse and giving National a free pass by blaming Labour.
“…and that Labour has since then consistently refused to apologise for, and that Labour today refuses to renounce.”
This is the flaw in a lot of what you say. You’re correct of course to criticise Key et al – we all do – but your failure to acknowledge Labour’s part in all of this makes much of what you say incomplete and close to hollow.
It’s faith based tribalism.
I don’t see you criticizing John key Chris. What good will it do? Will it change anything? Will it change what is happening now? What good will an apology do? Will it change history? Will it change anything? Will John key ever apologize for his acts of self serving treason? Will it change the damage of what people are living with right now?
Is it really Colonial Viper?
“What good will it do? Will it change anything? Will it change what is happening now? What good will an apology do? Will it change history? Will it change anything?”
Maybe it will help send the message that Labour has changed? Without any kind of renouncement all we have is an expectation of more of the same.
I started to reply but (in an instance of serendipity) Chris Trotter puts it better than I could:
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/04/27/an-opposition-worthy-of-the-name/
Thanks for the link.
+100 Grey Area…good post by Chris Trotter
Grey Area. Chris Trotter, who is a big fan of John key, is doing what he usually does, particularly so, when National is taking a hit.
Absolutely correct. I resigned from the Labour Party because of Rogernomics, and I too would like an apology for the unnecessary suffering inflicted on this country by the neolibs.
I too would also like to see a Labour Party much more to the left of the political spectrum – because in the future crises, and they’ll begin rolling onshore with increasing regularity these next few years – we’ll need really radical policies to cope.
Where’s Jim Anderton when we need him?
Will an apology change history? Will an apology change what is happening now? Then you should also demand an apology from John key, his entire government, Rob Muldoon, Bolger, Richardson and Shipley, (who still has her snout in the trough thanks to Key), as well.
@Chooky. The left coalition cannot win without Labour. That’s Fact. That’s MMP.
It’s Labour which ain’t pulling its weight. It should be in the mid 30s not the mid 20s.
Worse, it’s blaming everyone else for it and wanting easy excuses for its own failures.
I haven’t read that Labour is blaming everyone, and is making excuses. John key does that, doesn’t he? Its funny how National takes a hit in an opinion poll, and its all Labour’s fault.
NB Labour took almost as big a hit as National in that poll. National bled 7.7% proportionately, while Labour lost 7.0%.
In that poll National lost support to NZ First. That’s clear. It’s a significant drop for key’s government, not for Labour though, its not the first time pollsters have Labour’s numbers low. That’s if you believe in opinion polls, that is.
Nothing of the sort. How do you know that some Labour voters didn’t bleed across to NZF? That Labour support certainly didn’t go to the Greens – they only went up 0.5%.
National lost 3.5% out of the 46% they had last time: that’s a 7.6% relative loss.
Labour lost 2.0% out of the 28% they had last time: that’s a 7.1% relative loss.
If you think the RM showed that National’s polling “plunged” then you have to accept that Labour’s polling “plunged” as well – and by only a tiny bit less than National.
Already gave my opinion on that, and despite your spin, and if you believe in the opinion polls, collectively the opposition of Labour, NZ First and the Greens are clearly well ahead of the National government and its coalition partners. That’s what that poll shows.
yes the Oppo Block is ahead of National.
And Labour would hold a minority of sears in the block, while NZF and Greens will hold the majority.
Imagine the possibility now that the electorate is finally tiring of National. And of Labour, at exactly the same time.
There is another way to look at that CV. Myself I don’t see any shame in Labour’s polling because the votes are being shared amongst a broader section of society and that’s a good thing. If you believe that Labour are failing and that if they did the right thing they would poll higher then you are saying you want power consolidated in one party and lessened in others. It’s old FPP thinking. 30/15/15 or some variation could be s hood outcome for NZ (assuming that Peters is willing to share).
Colonial Viper, in your mind you’ve blended NZ First and the Greens together to pit it against Labour, which still has twice the support. In a coalition arrangement Labour would still hold the majority. I think people are fed up with PM John key and his corrupt government, and don’t feel that applies to Labour like you think it does.
weka: I have no problem with the tier of third parties growing stronger and stronger as both Labour and National continue to drift further and further from their true electoral base.
OK, well I look forward to Labour rising in the polls as National falls further out of favour.
We shouldn’t be seeing polls where National gets walloped…and Labour falls too.
“We shouldn’t be seeing polls where National gets walloped…and Labour falls too.”
Well that’s the strategy, as that is what we are seeing.
Interested to see Mana at 0%. Quick Labour, head to that space: it is clearly very fertile.
Labour already have, they won TTT.
Labour is crashing badly here – what can be done. NZF is now the only true opposition as it has the ability to form a government
RIP Labour
Labour doesn’t kick the bucket unless it loses both 2017 and 2020.
Rubbish Upnorth, and who do you think NZ First will form a government with? It won’t be with John Key.
Do they have to be part of a government? They could just vote on principle and refuse to sign a deal with either of the major parties.
Exactly. If Winston can resist the baubles of office…
But in the real world that wouldnt happen though. If an alliance could be formed, why wouldnt the parties form a government?
If NZF solidifies itself as a ‘regional’ party, then why would they not go with National?
Just look across the Tasman. There’s a reason it’s the Liberal-National coalition and not the Labour-National coalition.
The last time NZ First supported National, Winston Peter’s apologized for it and he hasn’t supported National in almost 20 years. He was quick to support the previous Labour government though. He appeared to enjoy it, he said it was his most easiest time in parliament.
. It is up to the adult people of New Zealand to decide whether they want to be able to afford housing now or into the future. Or whether they want to be able to afford the very high cost of Renting now and into the future.
It is up to New Zealand voters to decide whether they want foreign investors to buy our land, our assets, and our wealth lock stock and barrel.
After all, why should NZ land and assets belong to New Zealanders? Why shouldn’t Russia for instance, own our whole country and place our current wealth into their Russian bank accounts.
It is upto the New Zealand adults to decide whether we should import millions of foreigners to come in and take the great majority of jobs in New Zealand. After all, why should any New Zealanders have jobs?
It is up to New Zealanders to decide whether overseas businesses working here should pay less tax pro rata than the ordinary born and bred NZ employee. Or should the foreign firms be our guest and pay no Tax at all.
The next election it seems to me, is about these key points.
+1 Observer (Tokoroa), and its not as if adult people of New Zealand don’t know what the key points are, because they do.
. Thanks leftie
.
All the crap about neoliberalism; all the crap about Labour Party; all the crap about National; all the crap about the member of Johnsonville and other mpp oddities; all the crap about convention centers; all the crap about trade traps …. all of that is a total waste of precious time. !
The adult New Zealander wants a Parliament that brings a full time even playing field to the women, children and men of New Zealand.
They have had a gutful of shocking Corporations bleating to their favourite corrupt politicians. They have had a gutful of China and Australia, and Germany and the corrupt USA sucking the wealth out of our Country.
And as for giving free water to China or any other set of opportunistic bastards ….why the hell does our government not stop it dead !
Why not Leftie … I wonder ? because our Parliament and its stinky practitioners have lost the plot. Our Parliament is a trajedy.
New Zealand needs a Leader who will offer a job to Kiwis, offer an affordable home to Kiwis, offer tight content-full education to kiwis; offer affordable food to New Zealand ….. freedom from sugar poison…freedom from other gangs.
I don’t care who that Leader is …as long as he/she is known for her honesty and for courage and conviction, and for success.
I’m with you Observer (Tokoroa)