Managing Expectations – the NZ Housing crisis and Labour’s response.

Written By: - Date published: 6:15 am, October 6th, 2023 - 42 comments
Categories: election 2023, elections, housing, labour, national - Tags: , , , ,

Originally published on Nick Kelly’s blog

Watching the 2023 election campaign in New Zealand, one of Labour’s challenges appears to be that it has failed to manage voters’ expectations over the last six years.

Recalling the election campaign in 2017, Jacinda Ardern gave people hope that politics could be different. Moreover, the most significant social problems facing the country could be overcome by electing a government that promotes kindness and relentless positivity.

In early 2018 I wrote a post about the politics of hope, calling it a powerful and dangerous tool. In this blog post, I said the following:

In 2023, many in New Zealand have lost hope. While the political and economic situation is arguably better in many ways than in other parts of the world, the difference in New Zealand is that people feel let down. And as I wrote in 2018, the results of people feeling this way can be devastating.

http://nickkelly.blog/2018/04/01/hope-powerful-but-dangerous-tool/

When NZ Labour won its historic majority in 2020, I wrote the following:

The coming term will not be an easy one for Labour, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rumble on and the world plunges into the worst financial crisis in decades. On Saturday Labour were rewarded for their handling of the crisis so far, but the hard part is yet to come. On the one hand, they need to rebuild the NZ economy at a time when international tourism is dead and export markets are volatile. But even prior to this the New Zealand economy was unbalanced and in a precarious state. Its over-reliance on dairy exports has made it vulnerable if anything happens to this market and resulted in over-intensive dairy farming which has harmed the environment – not a good look for a country that brands itself as clean and green. It also faces growing inequality with significant growth in homelessness and poverty in recent years.

http://nickkelly.blog/2020/10/19/nz-election-2020-labour-win-is-a-watershed-moment-in-the-countrys-history/

This has indeed been a difficult term in government, and all the challenges described above came to be. Whilst this was never going to be an easy time to govern, after six years in power, three of which with a massive parliamentary majority, hard questions need to be asked about whether NZ Labour lived up to voter’s expectations.

There are two areas where the Labour-led government in New Zealand could have done a better job of managing expectations. One is Housing, and the second is the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. This post will focus on housing, and the next one on COVID.

Prior to the 2020 election, I wrote the following regarding the NZ Government’s handling of the housing crisis:

It is easy for both Labour and the Green Party’s to say they could not achieve all they wanted in their first term in government because of a difficult coalition partner. But this can only go so far. There are certain policy areas where the current Labour-led government have simply not yet delivered. At the beginning of 2019, Jacinda Ardern announced that it would be the year of delivery. Yet in policy areas such as decreasing homelessness, or the now ill-fated Kiwibuild program to build houses to combat the NZ Housing Crisis – delivery simply has not happened. Yes, these are difficult policy areas, but they are also policy areas where Labour took a strong stance in opposition.

http://nickkelly.blog/2020/08/09/jacinda-arderns-labour-government-style-over-substance-or-a-guiding-light-for-progressive-politics/

The reality was and is that addressing the housing crisis was never going to be quick. A problem over three decades in the making was never going to be fixed within one parliamentary term. NZ lacks skilled construction workers due to apprenticeship programmes being cut in the 1990s. Since selling off the Ministry of Works in 1994, NZ has been reliant on large international companies for major public works, including major housing projects. These international firms have no sense of obligation to New Zealand and are price setters.

Even if the above were not issues, there still needs to be planning consents, environmental impact reports and other processes which means housing developments take time.

The problem with Kiwibuild was not only the slow pace at which progress was made but also that as a policy programme, it did not on its own mean thousands of low-income people could afford housing. It addressed a supply issue, but not related issues such as lifting people’s incomes and lowering deposit rates for mortgages.

In 2017 Labour and Green Party voters in New Zealand believed that Kiwi Build would tackle the housing crisis. The then opposition underestimated the challenge a mass building programme such as this would take. This does not mean it was the wrong policy, but that Jacinda Ardern and the Labour frontbench over-promised and under-delivered. Had they not done so, Labour’s vote may not have risen to a level where entering government was viable. But long term, this has now contributed to the challenges Labour are facing in this election.

The National Party’s track record on housing is abysmal. Nobody expects the National Party in power to do anything other than allow the wealthy few to own more and more property. In this way, National and the Right are much better at expectation management. They win not by exciting voters and giving hope, but through many voters becoming depressed to the point where they disengage.

The housing crisis is not unique to New Zealand as I wrote about back in 2018. Governments in English-speaking democracies in particular struggle with this complex problem, that has no single fix. Instead, it will take significant policy changes, but more importantly changes to public attitudes on home ownership, regulation of the rental market and in-fill housing. It takes a strong government to achieve such a change within the limits of parliamentary democracy. Until this happens, expect governments to keep falling at the ballot for inaction.

42 comments on “Managing Expectations – the NZ Housing crisis and Labour’s response. ”

  1. lprent 1

    Reformatted using the block editor.

  2. Dennis Frank 2

    Labour's fatal error was not providing Aotearoa with a recovery plan post-pandemic. I pointed that out often onsite here at the time and the chickens have since come to roost.

    They also never explained why they couldn't duplicate the effort and results achieved by the first Labour govt re building ample houses. Inability to learn from experience became their most distinguishing characteristic!

    Still, Labour did manage to establish a track record as place-holders for National, so it's not as if they were a total bunch of losers. Neolib solidarity has become their primary legacy. Hipkins trying to both signal consensus with Luxon while simulating a brand differential ought to teach bright youngsters about the democracy sham.

    • Ad 2.1

      No the failure in housing goes back to 2017 and 2018.

      It's pretty evident that even with a national health pandemic, the public patience for massive state intervention no longer exists outside of a very very tight duration.

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1

        Fair enough. If they had made an effort to communicate with the people instead of taking refuge in sloganeering I wouldn't feel so critical.

        They seem to have no idea about authenticity. If they really were in it for the people, as their billboard implies, they’d explain stuff using realism instead of bs…

    • mikesh 2.2

      Labour's fatal error was not providing Aotearoa with a recovery plan post-pandemic. I pointed that out often onsite here at the time and the chickens have since come to roost.

      I thought they followed the advice of Ashley Bloomfield and the Health Dept..

      • Dennis Frank 2.2.1

        That was critical earlier & I remain a supporter of Ardern on that, but she failed to message the people in the aftermath due to having no exit strategy to inform them.

        • Chris 2.2.1.1

          And no provision to protect jobs after the mandates were lifted. Communicating the mandates were temporary wasn't the greatest, either, but leaving people without their job even after the mandates were lifted was a crucial mistake.

        • mikesh 2.2.1.2

          The exit strategy, after omicron struck, seemed to be to get everyone vaccinated, and then to return to normal. What “exit strategy” would one expect?

          Lack of an exit strategy would seem to be a “straw man” argument.

  3. Ad 3

    The endless bloated speeches and promises from Minister of Housing Phil Twyford were also deeply unhelpful.

    Also forming a new implementation house construction ministry from scratch and different from Kainga Ora, with a leader of the organisation that plainly failed from the start, was also unhelpful.

    Also the Minister of Finance superheating the economy with tens of billions of stimulus causing a speculative spike, while at the same time changing the tax depreciation for landlords who would purchase and operate rentals, was unhelpful.

    Also failing to admit that the government generated no mechanism for Kainga Ora and NZTA to work faster on masterplanning and building large-lot areas wasn't helpful.

    Morgan Godferey has made a parallel point recently that the capacity of the state to deliver has shrunk massively, but the government COVID response showed clearly that if the state wanted to intervene at scale and alter society, it had both the power and the will to do so. Which when it came to addressing any other crisis wasn't true. Let alone helpful.

    Does anyone still remember when housing was the main crisis, when now we also have crises in health, education, crime, and water? It is so hard to list the litany of failures in this government from where they started in 2017.

    Twyford failed in housing but Ardern was the source of the failure from the beginning.

    • KJT 3.1

      "Crises" in health, education, water and housing date back to decades before this Government. Covid simply bought it to a head.

      Unrealistic to expect it all to be "fixed" in six years.

      However the discounting of wealth and capital gains taxes is one of several spectacular "own goals".

      As is the reluctance to come out strongly to support policies that rebuild our society and infrastructure, and the increase in Government share of the economy that is required.

      • Ad 3.1.1

        "Unrealistic" is the theme of the post: the Labour-led government failed to convince that its promises were realistic. I don't think anyone will dispute that even in Labour, on October 15th.

        They did not have a coherent policy delivery platform and 100 Day Plan as part of their 2017 campaign. Too many people with fat policy ideas and no executive experience.

        Government response to COVID showed that you really can take people through a massive societal change and come out the other end. Arguably their success in it gave a template to do more in other policy areas. Hence Ardern as Smeagol hoarding her golden pile of political capital.

        Labour really did implement massive changes which we will only evaluate in many years to come, and really did rebuild major parts of our society. Only in specific months did it need to increase the total Government share of the economy.

        • lprent 3.1.1.1

          Too many people with fat policy ideas and no executive experience.

          It is specifically was and is having no executive experience in government, because I consider that private enterprise executive experience counts as a complete and large negative in getting things done in government. I don't think that anyone who has worked almost entirely in the private sector (ie like me) has any previous competence at making anything happen government (which I have observed for decades).

          The nearest we got to to it recently was the Key government. But this was the government who managed to do 9 years of doing absolutely no positive policies (building motorways with ensuring any extra user funds to maintain them against truck damage doesn't count as positive in my view) , but allowed previous problems to expand exponentially.

          If National goes over the line into government – then having a dearth of competent governmental executive experience is exactly the same position they will be in.

          National has the worst of the Key governments ministers – the most experienced are Judith Collins and Gerry Brownlee – both of whom are worse than useless. There are a number of the most ineffectual Key junior ministers and parliament secretaries imaginable who are available.

          Paul Goldsmith (believe it or not) is probably the best of them.

          Certainly more competent than Mark Mitchell or Todd McLay – which is an extremely low bar.

          • Ad 3.1.1.1.1

            I don't want to imagine the next government yet.

            Not all can be attributed to lack of experience one way or the other.

            Prime Minister Ardern played to her historic strengths in public speaking, media fronting, and international affairs, so she got away without private sector experience. In specific fields she was outstanding.

            The smoothest transitions under the current government from relevant public service to Ministerial level must surely be Ginny Anderson and Ayesha Verrall. They have had command of their portfolios from the get-go.

            Even a deep academic experience in a narrow field like tax means Deborah Russell could have performed better given her specific background.

            Andrew Little took on major executive fields in Defence, intelligence and security and get some big purchases delivered, big successful reforms, and major alliances set up. His massive signal move to merge all health into one will be a massive legacy. So he confounds lack of relevant experience simply with sound competence at task delivery and cross-sector diplomacy.

            The minister that also confounds the need for any major public or private sector experience however must surely be Megan Woods, who without much big leadership experience managed to take on more and more, and do so with strong policy ambition and without significant mistake.

            Just to argue against myself for a moment.

            • lprent 3.1.1.1.1.1

              You notice that these were all people from professions outside the private sector management. They have less to unlearn.

              I was never surprised about Andrew Little or Megan Woods. Both had worked in roles that required immense amounts of non-private political/managerial roles.

              The particular problem that I see is that a the direction of a government and competence at achieving it is pushed by its previous experience of pushing those things. So the 1984, 2008 and 2017 elections were notable for political abilities but limited competent senior experience in government. And it showed. The governments all drifted through lack of expertise.

              Rodger Douglas provided the main expertise in 1984-1990 and there were a series of mistakes etc etc

              • Ad

                Most state agencies have been made as close-to identical with a business as possible. That was a part of the State Sector Act and Crown Entities Act, including appointing board members, forming reasonable SOIs, investment proposals, shareholder expectations, and the like. That was the point of New Public Management in both theory and practise. And engage with staff only through Departmental Chief Executives.

                So most Ministerial work so far as I can tell would have corporate relevance if it were in a major company.

          • adam 3.1.1.1.2

            Paul Goldsmith (believe it or not) is probably the best of them.

            That statement made me rethink my aversion to smokable cocaine as a solution to help the total and complete hopeless.

        • Belladonna 3.1.1.2

          "They did not have a coherent policy delivery platform and 100 Day Plan as part of their 2017 campaign."

          In reality, this was because, until Ardern took over 6 weeks before election day, there was no possibility that Labour would be forming the next government.

          I still feel that Kiwibuilt was a political stick to beat the National government with, rather than a fully worked out plan from a party expecting to deliver on it. An electioneering slogan, rather than a policy.

          • Ad 3.1.1.2.1

            Oh come on, you either prepare to run the government or you don't.

            • Belladonna 3.1.1.2.1.1

              That's the point. They weren't prepared to run a government…. because they didn't think they had a hope of being elected.

          • mikesh 3.1.1.2.2

            The original kiwibuild plan was probably a good one, but they probably underestimated the time it would take to execute such a plan.

            • Belladonna 3.1.1.2.2.1

              Not only the time, but also the cost, number of tradies required, and bureaucratic hurdles to overcome. It wasn't a costed plan – more an election promise, that they were, no doubt, horrified to be expected to deliver on.

              Aspirational goals are all well and good, but don't present them as hard targets (unless you want your Minister to be the target for the outrage of broken promises).

              What I would have liked to have seen (long after Kiwibuild had gone the way of the dodo), is the government purchasing motels at book price during the Covid lockdowns – instead of paying the owners ridiculous prices to house the homeless. They could then have re-developed these under Kainga Ora (once lockdown was past) into multi-story public housing (some for families, some for singles, some for people with complex needs). Virtually all of the motels were in high-traffic areas (so good public transport), and already zoned as high-density accommodation.

              Sensitive development, bringing the community along with them – rather than the hell-holes which some of the motels turned into (cf Rotorua and Tiny Deane's security company)

              An opportunity wasted.

  4. pat 4

    The Labour (led) government of 2017 discovered (if they didnt understand already) that the housing bubble was the basis of our economy and was consequently off limits to be 'repaired' even should the tools be available to do so….tinkering was all that was available to them.

    Nothing has changed

    • Dennis Frank 4.1

      I like it – the neolib wimp theory of politics, political scientists take note! yessmiley

      • pat 4.1.1

        Not a lot to like…and its practice rather than theory.

        The difficulty is getting from here to there, especially as a bit player trapped in the current paradigm….and understanding the consequences of attempting to swim against the tide.

    • mikesh 4.2

      The housing "bubble" if it was a bubble, is yet to burst. The recent increase in prices was due to circumstances brought about by the pandemic. I understand that prices are now back to pre-pandemic levels.

      • arkie 4.2.1

        Your understanding is wrong:

        The latest figures from the OneRoof-Valocity House Index show the nationwide average property value is, at $958,000, 23.9% ($185,000) higher than it was in March 2020, just before Covid-19 struck.

        https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/oneroof-house-price-report-may-2023-43471

      • Drowsy M. Kram 4.2.2

        I understand that prices are now back to pre-pandemic levels.

        No, although house prices have been dropping – which is not the right direction.

        House asking prices dropping $10k per month on average – report
        [3 Oct 2023]

        • Nic the NZer 4.2.2.1

          I think this chart is nominal values. This means that the earlier prices might need to be inflation adjusted to make comparable house prices (or your more or less just comparing inflation, not house price changes). This is why the majority of the left of that chart is quite flat.

          There is a similar house price index here, and you can see it has somewhat different shape.

          https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-statistics/housing

          As Nick mentioned the price of housing in NZ is a 30 year saga, and some of the biggest increases in house prices began circa 2000.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 4.2.2.1.1

            The chart @4.2.2 covers 2007 onwards.

            I might be misinterpreting, but in the RBNZ link, isn't that a graph of the House Price Index (HPI) (annual % change), rather than actual prices?

            Yes, there were some big % increases between 2002 and 2007, but the HPI graph indicates the largest % increases (June – December 2021) occurred during the pandemic.

            Between March 2020 and March 2023 (when that graph ends), the area above zero (indicating increasing house prices) in considerably greater than the area below zero – the HPI (annual % change) doesn't turn negative until around August 2022, so the time spent in negative territory since then isn't enough to correct/offset the larger % increases up to August 2022.

            It's going to take quite a few more months of negative % changes to lower house prices back to pre-COVID levels, but there are already moves afoot to reverse the current partial correction.

            As I said, I could easily have this wrong, in which case my apologies.

            • Nic the NZer 4.2.2.1.1.1

              The value of housing stock chart is similar enough to the house price index. The point your making with either chart is correct, and prices have fallen only as far as 2021 levels at this stage and even with the elevated inflation rate after the pandemic this brings the equivalent level back by only a few months.

              But its important to understand that any chart of nominal levels should likely be understood to have an implicit exponential series underlying it as well as the actual series your examining. The left of your chart is always going to be the flat part of an exponential curve, and if your comparing 2004 and 2021 and 2009 and 2022 these increases and decreases are all close (while in your chart they don't appear equivalent at all).

        • mikesh 4.2.2.2

          No, although house prices have been dropping – which is not the right direction.

          "The right" being an obvious pun.

  5. Binders full of Women 5

    The best housing policy is the Greens Progressive Ownership- best of both worlds. But not gonna vote for them cos I am stupid (white). I used to love them and cast my first ever vote for the Rev Ray Galvin in the old Greens about 1987.

  6. Descendant Of Smith 6

    Kiwibuild was a mess of a policy – overly complicated and captured by neo-liberal middle class objectives as to what affordable housing was. So many rules and complications and an over-inflated sense of what working class could afford. Not uncommon from both politicians and highly paid CEO's to underestimate the struggle that others face.

    If they wanted affordable housing for purchase then as I said at the time – retain ownership of the land by the state in perpetuity and just have people buy the house.

    If they needed to transition the baby boomers away from their 3 and 4 bedroom homes build small units close to amenities and do a swap – brand new units were not dissimilar in price to old 3-4 bedroom homes.

    Lastly build more state housing with a long term view articulated to make up for years of immigration and lack of maintaining volumes as population increased.

    I have not met anyone who can actually articulate Kiwibuild in simple terms. Ordinary people just don't wish to dig into the detail of it.

    I actually think they have done a reasonable job building more actual state houses. If that was their main policy they would now likely be in a position of strength.

    Kiwibuild was the neo-liberal capitalist solution that no-one needed.

    • mikesh 6.1

      If they wanted affordable housing for purchase then as I said at the time – retain ownership of the land by the state in perpetuity and just have people buy the house.

      That would entail buying land back from its private owners. The government would not have had sufficient cash to do that, though one possibility may have been to issue bonds in lieu of cash. Another approach may have been to pass legislation to allow only the government the right to buy and sell land; anyone then wishing to sell a property would have to sell the land component to the government while they sold the house to the buyer.

      I have not met anyone who can actually articulate Kiwibuild in simple terms. Ordinary people just don't wish to dig into the detail of it.

      The plan, in simple terms, was to build some houses, sell them, and use the proceeds to build more, continuing the process until 100,000 had been built.

  7. barry 7

    Kiwibuild may not have delivered so many houses by itself, but it created an environment of house building. Often a subdivision would have a small proportion of the houses as kiwibuild houses, which helped the developer get funding. Sometimes a developer could take a risk with kiwibuild as a backup option if their houses didn't sell.

    It also encouraged builders to take on apprentices, thus growing the industry.

    Has anybody crunched the numbers? How many does the number of houses built under Labour compared with the last government? How many new builders did we train?

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    The notion of geopolitical  “periphery.” The concept of periphery used here refers strictly to what can be called the geopolitical periphery. Being on the geopolitical periphery is an analytic virtue because it makes for more visible policy reform in response … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    3 days ago
  • Venus Hum

    Fill me up with soundThe world sings with me a million smiles an hourI can see me dancing on my radioI can hear you singing in the blades of grassYellow dandelions on my way to schoolBig Beautiful Sky!Song: Venus Hum.Good morning, all you lovely people, and welcome to the 700th ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • I Went to a Creed Concert

    Note: The audio attached to this Webworm compliments today’s newsletter. I collected it as I met people attending a Creed concert. Their opinions may differ to mine. Read more ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • Government migration policy backfires; thousands of unemployed nurses

    The country has imported literally thousands of nurses over the past few months yet whether they are being employed as nurses is another matter. Just what is going on with HealthNZ and it nurses is, at best, opaque, in that it will not release anything but broad general statistics and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A Time For Unity.

    Emotional Response: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addresses mourners at the tangi of King Tuheitia on Turangawaewae Marae on Saturday, 31 August 2024.THE DEATH OF KING TUHEITIA could hardly have come at a worse time for Maoridom. The power of the Kingitanga to unify te iwi Māori was demonstrated powerfully at January’s ...
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again

    National's tax cut policies relied on stealing revenue from the ETS (previously used to fund emissions reduction) to fund tax cuts to landlords. So how's that going? Badly. Today's auction failed again, with zero units (of a possible 7.6 million) sold. Which means they have a $456 million hole in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Two.

    A question of size. Small size generally means large vulnerability. The perception of threat is broader and often more immediate for small countries. The feeling of comparative weakness, of exposure to risk, and of potential intimidation by larger powers often … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Nicola Willis’s Very Unserious Bungling of the Kiwirail Interislander Cancellation

    Open to all with kind thanks to all subscribers and supporters.Today, RNZ revealed that despite MFAT advice to Nicola Willis to be very “careful and deliberate” in her communications with the South Korean government, prior to any public announcement on cancelling Kiwirail’s i-Rex, Willis instead told South Korea 26 minutes ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Satisfying the Minister’s Speed Obsession

    The Minister of Transport’s speed obsession has this week resulted in two new consultations for 110km/h speed limits, one in Auckland and one in Christchurch. There has also been final approval of the Kapiti Expressway to move to 110km/h following an earlier consultation. While the changes will almost certainly see ...
    4 days ago
  • What if we freed up our streets, again?

    This guest post is by Tommy de Silva, a local rangatahi and freelance writer who is passionate about making the urban fabric of Tāmaki Makaurau-Auckland more people-focused and sustainable. New Zealand’s March-April 2020 Level 4 Covid response (aka “lockdown”) was somehow both the best and worst six weeks of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago
  • No Alarms And No Surprises

    A heart that's full up like a landfillA job that slowly kills youBruises that won't healYou look so tired, unhappyBring down the governmentThey don't, they don't speak for usI'll take a quiet lifeA handshake of carbon monoxideAnd no alarms and no surprisesThe fabulous English comedian Stewart Lee once wrote a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Five ingenious ways people could beat the heat without cranking the AC

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy Simmons Every summer brings a new spate of headlines about record-breaking heat – for good reason: 2023 was the hottest year on record, in keeping with the upward trend scientists have been clocking for decades. With climate forecasts suggesting that heat waves ...
    4 days ago
  • No new funding for cycling & walking

    Studies show each $1 of spending on walking and cycling infrastructure produces $13 to $35 of economic benefits from higher productivity, lower healthcare costs, less congestion, lower emissions and lower fossil fuel import costs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • 99

    Dad turned 99 today.Hell of a lot of candles, eh?He won't be alone for his birthday. He will have the warm attention of my brother, and my sister, and everyone at the rest home, the most thoughtful attentive and considerate people you could ever know. On Saturday there will be ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Open Government: National reneges on beneficial ownership

    One of the achievements of the New Zealand’s Open Government Partnership Fourth National Action Plan was a formal commitment from the government to establish a public beneficial ownership register. Such a register would allow the ultimate owners of companies to be identified - a vital measure in preventing corruption, money ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt One.

    This project analyzes security politics in three peripheral democracies (Chile, New Zealand, Portugal) during the 30 years after the end of the Cold War. It argues that changes in the geopolitical landscape and geo-strategic context are interpreted differently by small … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Tea and Toast

    When the skies are looking bad my dearAnd your heart's lost all its hopeAfter dawn there will be sunshineAnd all the dust will goThe skies will clear my darlingNow it's time for you to let goOur girl will wake you up in the mornin'With some tea and toastLyrics: Lucy Spraggan.Good ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • NLTP 2024 released – destroying pipeline of shovel ready local projects

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Waka Kotahi yesterday released the latest National Land Transport Plan (NLTP) for 2024-27. The NLTP sets out what transport projects will be funded for the next three years, including both central and local government projects. As expected given the government’s extremely ideological transport policy, it’s ...
    5 days ago
  • Can Brown deliver his roads

    The Government’s unveiling of its road-building programme yesterday was ambitious and, many would say, long overdue. But the question will be whether it is too ambitious, whether it is affordable, and, if not, what might be dropped. The big ticket items will be the 17 so-called Roads of National Significance. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • New paper about detecting climate misinformation on Twitter/X

    Together with Cristian Rojas, Frank Algra-Maschio, Mark Andrejevic, Travis Coan, and Yuan-Fang Li, I just published a paper in Nature Communications Earth & Environment where we use the Computer Assisted Recognition of Denial and Skepticism (CARDS) machine learning model to detect climate misinformation in 5 million climate tweets. We find over half ...
    6 days ago
  • Excerpting “Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies.”

    In the late 2000s-early 2010s I was researching and writing a book titled “Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Chile, New Zealand and Portugal.” The book was a cross-regional Small-N qualitative comparison of the security strategies and postures of three small … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Hating for the Wrong Reasons: Of Rings of Power, Orcs and Evil

    A few months ago, my fellow countryman, HelloFutureMe, put out a giant YouTube video, dissecting what went wrong with the first season of Rings of Power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ6FRUO0ui0&t=8376s). It’s an exceptionally good video, and though it spans some two and a half hours, it is well worth your time. But ...
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: “Least cost” to who?

    On Friday the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment released their submission on National's second Emissions Reduction Plan, ripping the shit out of it as a massive gamble based on wishful thinking. One of the specific issues he focused on was National's idea of "least cost" emissions reduction, pointing out that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Israeli Lives Matter

    There is no monopoly on common senseOn either side of the political fenceWe share the same biology, regardless of ideologyBelieve me when I say to youI hope the Russians love their children tooLyrics: Sting. Read more ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Luxon Cries

    Over the weekend, I found myself rather irritably reading up about the Treaty of Waitangi. “Do I need to do this?” It’s not my jurisdiction. In any other world, would this be something I choose to do?My answer - no.The Waitangi Tribunal, headed by some of our best legal minds, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Just one Wellington home being consented for every 10 in Auckland

    A decade of under-building is coming home to roost in Wellington. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday September 2:Wellington’s leaders are wringing their hands over an exodus of skilled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Container trucks on local streets: why take the risk?

    This is a guest post by Charmaine Vaughan, who came to transport advocacy via her local Residents Association and a comms role at Bike Auckland. Her enthusiasm to make local streets safer for all is shared by her son Dylan Vaughan, a budding “urban nerd” who provided much of the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    6 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35

    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, August 25, 2024 thru Sat, August 31, 2024. Story of the week After another crammed week of climate news including updates on climate tipping points, increasing threats from rising ...
    7 days ago
  • An Uncanny Valley of Improvement: A Review and Analysis of The Rings of Power, Episodes 1-3 (Season ...

    And thus we come to the second instalment of Amazon’s Rings of Power. The first season, in 2022, was underwhelming, even for someone like myself, who is by nature inclined to approach Tolkien adaptations with charity. The writing was poor, the plot made no sense on its own terms, and ...
    7 days ago
  • Alcohol debris and Crocodile Tears

    I write to you this morning from scenes of carnage. Around the floor lie young men who only hours earlier were full of life, and cocktails, and now lie silent. Read more ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • When Do We Look Away?

    Hi,The first time I saw something that made me recoil on the internet was a visit to Rotten.com. The clue was in the name — but the internet was a new thing to me in the 90s, and no-one really knew what the hell was going on. But somehow I ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • The decades just fly by

    You turn your back for a moment and a city can completely transform itself. It was, oh, just the other day I was tripping up to Kuala Lumpur every few months to teach workshops and luxuriate in the tropical warmth and fill my face with Char Kway Teow.It has to ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • 2024 Reading Summary: August

    Completed reads for August: Aesop’s Fables (collection), by Aesop Berserk: Volume XXV (manga), by Kentaro Miura Benighted, by J.B. Priestly Berserk: Volume XXVI (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXVII (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXVIII (manga), by Kentaro Miura Berserk: Volume XXIX (manga), by Kentaro Miura ...
    1 week ago
  • Is recent global warming part of a natural cycle?

    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with John Mason. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is recent global warming part ...
    1 week ago
  • White Noise

    Now here we standWith our hearts in our handsSqueezing out the liesAll that I hearIs a message, unclearWhat else is there to decide?All that I'm hearing from youIs White NoiseLyrics: Christopher John CheneyIs the tide turning?Have we reached the high point of the racist hate and lies from Hobson’s Pledge, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The Death Of “Big Norm” – Exactly 50 Years Ago Today.

    Norman KirkPrime Minister of New Zealand 1972-1974Born: 6 January 1923 - Died: 31 August 1974Of the working-class, by the working-class, for the working-class.Video courtesy of YouTubeThese elements were posted on Bowalley Road on Saturday, 31 August 2024. ...
    1 week ago
  • Claims and Counter-Claims.

    Whose Foreshore? Whose Seabed? When the Marine and Coastal Area Act was originally passed back in 2011, fears about the coastline becoming off-limits to Pakeha were routinely allayed by National Party politicians pointing out that the tests imposed were so stringent  that only a modest percentage of claims (the then treaty ...
    1 week ago
  • Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • The Principles of the Treaty

    Hardly anyone says what are ‘the principles of the treaty’. The courts’ interpretation restrain the New Zealand Government. While they about protecting a particular community, those restraints apply equally to all community in a liberal democracy – including a single person.Treaty principles were introduced into the governance of New Zealand ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • The Only Other Reliable Vehicle.

    An Elite Leader Awaiting Rotation? Hipkins’ give-National-nothing-to-aim-at strategy will only succeed if the Coalition becomes as unpopular in three years as the British Tories became in fourteen.THE SHAPE OF CHRIS HIPKINS’ THINKING on Labour’s optimum pathway to re-election is emerging steadily. At the core of his strategy is Hipkins’ view ...
    1 week ago
  • A Big F U to this Right Wing Government

    Open to all - deep thanks to those who support and subscribe.One of the things that has got me interested recently is updates about Māori wards.In April, Stuff’s Karanama Ruru reported that ~ 2/3 of our 78 councils had adopted Māori wards in NZ.That meant that under the Coalition repeal ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: James Shaw’s legacy keeps paying off

    One of the central planks of the previous Labour-Green government's emissions reduction policy was GIDI (Government Investment in Decarbonising Industry). This was basically using ETS revenue to pay polluters to clean up production, reducing emissions while protecting jobs. Corporate welfare, but it got the job done, and was often a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Gravity

    Oh twice as much ain't twice as goodAnd can't sustain like one half couldIt's wanting moreThat's gonna send me to my kneesSong: John MayerSome ups and downs from the last week of August ‘24. The good and bad, happy and sad, funny and mad, heroes and cads. The week that ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Ditch the climate double speak and get real

    Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:The Government announced changes to the Fast-Track Approvals Bill on Sunday, backing off from the contentious proposal to give ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Hoon around the week to August 30

    The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts and talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest science of changing sea temperatures and which emissions policies actually work; on the latest from Ukraine, Gaza and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • This Govt’s infrastructure strategy depends on capital gains taxes & new road taxes

    Billions of dollars in value uplift was identified around the Transmission Gully project, but that was captured 100% by landowners and not shared to pay for the project. Now National is saying value capture should be used for similar projects. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/ Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 30-August-2024

    Kia ora and welcome to the end of another week. Here’s our regular Friday roundup of things that caught our eye, in the realm of cities and transport. If you enjoy these roundups, feel free to join our growing ranks of supporters by making a recurring donation to keep the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Table Talk: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.

    That’s the sort of constitutional reform he favours: conceived in secret; revolutionary in intent; implemented incrementally without fanfare; and under no circumstances to be placed before the electorate for democratic ratification.TO SAY IT WAS RAINING would have understated seriously the meteorological conditions. Simply put, it was pissing down. One of ...
    1 week ago
  • Big Norm and Chris Hipkins

    It’s 50 years ago today that “Big Norm” Kirk died of a heart attack in Wellington’s Home of Compassion. Home of Compassion. Although he was Prime Minister for only 623 days, he has an iconic place in New Zealand history, particularly Labour history. When Labour leaders like Jacinda Ardern recite ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35 2024

    Open access notables Arctic glacier snowline altitudes rise 150 m over the last 4 decades, Larocca et al., The Cryosphere: We mapped the snowline (SL) on a subset of 269 land-terminating glaciers above 60° N latitude in the latest available summer, clear-sky Landsat satellite image between 1984 and 2022. The mean SLA was extracted ...
    1 week ago
  • Unravelling the String of State: New Zealand Sovereignty and the Treaty of Waitangi

    Oh dear. Sometimes people just need to prod the sleeping dog. We currently have a parliamentary dispute over the nature of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi, as signed between the British Crown and New Zealand Maori: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/526451/sovereignty-debate-split-on-party-lines Specifically, the National Government takes the traditional view that Maori ceded sovereignty ...
    1 week ago

  • Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations

    A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report.  “It will have the mandate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Passport wait times back on-track

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New appointments to the FMA board

    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • District Court judges appointed

    Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand

    Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender

    New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease

    Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Improving access to finance for Kiwis

    5 September 2024  The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.  “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia

    As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer

    Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations.   “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • More choice and competition in building products

    A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul

    On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • International tourism continuing to bounce back

    Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency

    The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.  “That is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape

    The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government backs women in horticulture

    “The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says.  “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout

    The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003

    Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants.  “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New priorities to protect future of conservation

    Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti

    A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand

    The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Delivering priority connections for the West Coast

    A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington

    A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato

    A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki

    A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland

    A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland

    A record $991 million for transport investment in Northland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s connections and support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that every transport dollar is spent wisely on the projects and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Top of the South to benefit from reliable transport infrastructure

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