Written By:
lprent - Date published:
9:14 am, July 14th, 2020 - 98 comments
Categories: Amy Adams, Judith Collins, national, same old national, Simon Bridges -
Tags:
I realise that National probably won’t appreciate my advice. However I actually would like to have a viable competent opposition. I don’t even want an election to be as much of a pushover as this one is likely to be. If I was a stalwart National supporter or a member of their caucus, I’d be pushing for Amy Adams.
She has stood for the leadership previously, and was heading into retirement before the elevation of the more centrist Todd Muller. So she has already faced the daunting prospect of that position. She was a very competent minister, who actually garnered respect from wide swaths of the political community. She is about the best prospect for a consensus candidate. She would be the best candidate to appeal for votes in the swinging voters as well.
This is unlike Judith Collins whose ministerial posts have been most noticeable for politically poor decisions that catered to a minority of bigoted vindictive National supporters – and distaste in the wider community. Her very name seems to cause intercine warfare inside the National caucus and amongst National party members. I’m sure that her biography won’t have helped matters much. For a political junkie, her biography is as interesting for what she doesn’t mention.
Apart from that, I can only think of Simon Bridges as a viable candidate. I suspect that would not be a particularly happy caucus that made that decision. However until covid-19 came along and revealed that he was tone-deaf to the public mood.
Of course expecting the misogynists inside National to realistically consider a female leader again is probably asking a bit much.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Simeon Brown – your moment may have come!
Who?
Nicki Kaye has been appointed as interim Leader.
Listening to the dead voice of Mitchell would kill him as a leader.
Collins never seemed to be rattled no matter what the problem was. Is she what a sagging Party needs?
It's a damn shame Jian Yang scarpered when he did.
More talent than any dozen of the others, but there is the problem of who he was working for. The same might be said of Key.
Well the last female PM for National, Dame Shipley wasn't exactly an overwhelming experience.
Also, she wasn't voted in by an election, it was coo, Bolger was similar to Muller in many ways, not really Leadership material for the National Party.
Adams is still an attack dog though, and that often suits Nat supporters.
I don't think it matters much who they throw in, the damage has been done, it's a big hole to climb out of
Yeah, but even after the election, it'd be useful to have an effective opposition to do their role. Having someone competent to do it would be a big plus.
Could they stomach having a leader that just brought them through a humiliating election loss? Surely everyone with enough functioning neurons to make a synapse thinks whoever goes in now will be just a seatwarmer, then they can regroup and choose the real new leader after the election.
Come to think of it, it might be a good way to rid themselves of someone that's so delusional to think they could actually win this if only he were the chosen leader. Better that than tainting any potential real leader with the big black spot of an ugly loss to start their tenure with.
Labour did that after 1996 with Clark. On the other hand Moore didn't in 1993
It really depends on the reason for the defeat. In 1996 it was the choice of having residual perceived Rogernome or Clark.
I'd admit that you'd have to look back a long way for National. They're somewhat feral about failure.
On the other hand, I can't think of a better reason than the one that Adams or whoever would have.
Wasn't that supposed to be Muller?
Everyone already knew that they were going to lose but Muller turned out worse than anyone expected.
Agreed, but they need someone not tainted by the last few years of Bridges style of politics, someone the general public will endorse for the very reasons you describe, not an easy task, that's why Muller was pulled out of the hat.
But his conscience got the better of him, he had to live with himself, I think he believed he had a chance to win on good policy and nature, not something the National Party are renowned for.
Bolger was similar to Muller in many ways, not really Leadership material for the National Party.
Sure, the guy that was PM for 8 years wasn't 'leadership material'. FFS.
Yep, but the Nat supporters that I new at that time had been Screaming for someone with a back bone.
When Shipley finally rolled Bolger, the same people said "I know we needed a new leader, but Shipley is a bulldog"
Bolger was kept for the second term as he had survived the election, not because he represented what many Nat supporters believed in. The writing had been on the wall for some time before Shipley claimed victory.
Shipley's tenuure was very short, but she managed to do significant damage to NZ, more retirees left NZ permanently during her reign that anytime previously, or since, the other point that not many are familiar with is that Shipley was Directly responsible for the problems we have today of KIWIs in Australia, the lack of any Rights was a direct result of Shipley's actions.
It was John Howard who introduced the sanctions on Kiwis in 2000
I agree with your post. I hail from round her way; and though I am unashamedly very left of centre, I too believe we need a viable, effective opposition. Amy is well respected in her electorate, is a hard worker for her constituents, and can string a few sentences together (note to prospective coup leaders in National; that actually is a skill you need to lead a party and a country).
Plus she has some principles. I dont agree with almost anything she stands for, but at least she stands for something.
Nothing will change because the next National leader will make the same photocopied speech as any other ("great party … team … Ardern weak … shambolic … blah blah). So nobody will listen, except their shrinking cheer squad.
I would be amazed and delighted if the next leader starts by saying –
"We get it. We've really screwed up. Including me. Sorry. Sure, we are still right-wing politicians, that's why we're Nats, but there are smart ways to do this job, and we've been stupid and arrogant and destructive and all our problems are self-inflicted. And they didn't start with Todd."
If they had any awareness at all they'd realize that would win support. But, no.
Do leopards change their spots?
Certainly agree with your analysis, but I just think the National MPs can't see they've done something wrong, it's the whole internal culture.
How do you go about changing that in a meaningful way?
I think at least some MPs have some awareness of it – in private. But the default public position is saying "All good! Strong team! United caucus!" etc.
They think it is weakness to acknowledge any failings publicly. So they just make the credibility gap between them and the voters even wider.
I mean, most of the caucus lied about supporting Bridges. Then they didn’t.
"They think it is weakness to acknowledge any failings publicly. So they just make the credibility gap between them and the voters even wider."
A real LEADER would acknowledge the failings, make a public announcement as to how they intend to remedy it and attempt to change the culture of Negative politics for the good of the country and the Party.
I'm not going to hold my breath.
.
Cometh the Hour
Cometh the Man
https://twitter.com/swordfish7774/status/1281377883873669121
Smiddy's the kind of hard-drinkin’ no-nonsense Maverick who gets the job done by cutting corners and bucking authority … and if those namby-pamby desk-sucking pen-pushers on the 9th floor of the Beehive don't like it then, Mister, they can just about swivel like a pig on this mid-digit ! Smiddy won’t be chained down.
Who’s the Oppo MP who doesn’t give a frick
He’s a love machine to all the chicks ?
Smiddy ?
Damn right !!!
.
Who’s the cat that won’t cop out when there is danger all about ?
Smiddy ?
Right on, Motherfucker !!!
Shaft!
Surely you meant Shafted?
ROFL !!!!
I can dig it 🙂
Adams a safe pair of hands? She'll have to spray tankloads of that sticky stuff sportspeople spray on their hands and arms so they don't drop the ball, or club or axe.
what with all that slime.
Good thesis. My suggestion: Adams- Kaye.
Nice post, and IMHO lprent makes a good point about mysogynist support for National. A woman in the leader and deputy leader positions might be a step too far for some Nat supporters with more 'traditional' beliefs, including the "She's a pretty communist" brigade. It's an unprecented first for any major political party in NZ, and if enough Nats sadly see it as a sign of 'weakness' then party strategists (who will be polling frantically) may be reluctant to promote such a combo (e.g. Adams-Kaye) this election.
Only someone who truly has the party's interests, as opposed to their own interests, at heart would be prepared to do the top job now.
I agree. The Nat Caucus can only shuffle the candidates who will step up to the plank. Internal division is rife with distrust of their own making. The party needs to heal and repair itself but they’re likely to go for status quo because they don’t have the balls to do anything that’s considered radical. It might take three terms to come to terms with that.
In the most recent OneNews poll, Muller was at 13% for preferred PM. Decent start.
Simon Bridges was 0.4%. Amy Adams 0.2%. Yes, the decimal point is not a typo.
https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/what-we-do/1-news-poll/
The stuff about the minute 0.2% leadership poll for Adam is irrelevant. Doesn't mean by October she's going to be or not be PM but if Adams is named as leader tomorrow morning her leadership numbers would rocket up to 8 to 12%.
Not irrelevant.
John Key and Jacinda Ardern both featured prominently in preferred PM ratings before becoming leaders of their parties.
e.g. Ardern level with leader Little in 2017.
Sure, Adams would obviously rate higher if she becomes leader. So would any new National leader. But none have any groundswell of support, except (occasionally) Collins.
I would love the slogan for any Nat hopeful to be
'I am standing for a war on sleaze and an end to dirty tricks'
But that will never happen. It seems to be endemic in that party.
Sigh
Isn't that what the Trump did?
And has he, in any way, drained the swamp since?
Trump is drowning in his own swamp.
Nah, assign them all to the tip and bury the lot, no one needs these shits in our lives in any shape or form.
Jim Bolger on RNZ this morning gave a good speech for National – he acknowledged the good response to Covid, and moved straight on to financing the next stage, in effect arguing for higher tax for high earners as he clearly saw that as difficult for the coalition, but avoiding any other policy as that would highlight that National has no such policies.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018754854/jim-bolger-on-the-resignation-of-todd-muller
Please add the link yourself, next time. Thank you so much.
I'm tempted to go for the dark horse candidate. Nats love soldiers. Too old-school? Could be. But has that solidity that appeals to conservatives.
Wouldn't succeed as leader due to lack of track record in parliamentary performance & low media profile. But amidst a pack of bad options, could be the least bad. Always the possibility he adapts to the top job and becomes comfortable in it.
His test would be to seem reasonable to centrists. To do that requires the ability to reframe issues from a partisan Nat stance to a non-partisan view. I'm inclined to suspect he can do that. Just a hunch.
From the perspective of their caucus, it's down to if he bridges the liberal/conservative divide – we'd need a Nat insider view to inform us on that crucial point.
A good soldier keeps his powder dry..
National need someone with experience who can
steady the ship,stop the ship sinking,refloat the ship, salvage the ruins.This is made for Collins. She may have even set this up. The hard right Nats and those who love her style will be pleased. However she comes with baggage. Buyer beware.
Collins will know it's not her time yet. She'll wait this one out.
Hi Chris I bet two reckons to your one. lol lol
Does that mean I lose?
Yes Seems so…..but Brownlie? So more black ops.
Time for the National Party to split between decent conservatives and the unethical right, between those who are truly 'national', and those seeking the advancement only of themselves and their ilk.
I'm afraid that the split that I have advocated for the right, to have a rural conservative and an urban liberal brace of parties, would not meet the ethical standards that they need to embrace.
I suggest that post election National splits into its founding coalition parties, to adopt their former labels, Reform and United. Then the reformers could get on with re-establishing ethical political practice and reclaim their party, and the rest can practice their peculiar sense of unity based on mutual aggrandisement.
Then conservative voters might take the opportunity to show the troughers the door to oblivion, and NZ might get an effective and honourable opposition.
Possible Replacements for Todd Muller
No. 1: AMY ADAMS
Positives:
(1) She seems pleasant and has a nice smile. People would say, “Yes, it’s the Nasty Party, but that Amy Adams has a nice smile. She seems nice.”
Negatives:
(1) Even for the National Party, she’s an intellectual lightweight. Notoriously she once said, with a straight face, that private profit-takers should run social welfare, which was, she blithered, “beyond the meagre resources of the government.”
(2) She even made a dog’s breakfast of the lowly Communications and IT portfolio; her own brother in law condemned her manipulation at the hands of the telecommunications companies.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/8061486/Brother-in-law-slams-ministers-frequency-plans
(3) She was there, a pleasant-seeming, smiling dummy, throughout the scandal of the Key regime’s filthy politics. She didn’t so much as utter a word of dissent or disapproval.
For some
unbiasedopinion-free facts on Amy Adams: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Adams_(politician)Those National Party wikipedia authors are opinion-free and 100 per cent reliable?
And it’s a grim and undeniable fact that she called the resources of government “meagre.” And it’s also a fact that she did not utter a word of disapproval as the scandal of that brutal smear and defamation campaign was being run out of the Prime Minister’s office.
But by all means pretend she’s not an airhead.
It’s all so relative; you’re an airhead, I’m an airhead, we all are airheads. Does it make you feel
superiorbetter callingwomenothers airheads? In my perspective, your opinion is light as snowflake whirling gently down the light breeze of irrelevance towards the hard-frozen ground of oblivion.100 points if in your next comeback you can fit in 'wank stain on the duvet of life'
Ooooooh, Mr Al1en, you are awful. But I like you.
“Does it make you feel
superiorbetter callingwomenothers airheads?”I listed three reasons why she qualifies as an intellectual lightweight and a person lacking in moral fortitude. I supplied evidence to back up each of those reasons. You can pretend that my providing that evidence constitutes something "light as snowflake, etc." if you like, but something more serious and substantial would serve you better, I think.
Your reckons are like an empty bucket in deep space bombarded by cosmic radiation. Amy Adams has achieved more in politics than you have and ever will and whether you agree with her politically or ideologically is irrelevant. But feel free to call her airhead and dummy and I feel free to point out to you that you’re mostly playing the woman instead of the ball. Of course, Amy Adams is an easy target here because she’s a Nat MP.
Can you do some proper analysis of her pros & cons as a possible Nat Leader? I think it is beyond your intellectual capabilities and you may need to hire a bulldozer to move that enormous ego of yours out of the way but you could prove me wrong. Your comment @ 17 read like a misogynistic rant by somebody who’s prematurely run out of Viagra.
Amy Adams has achieved more in politics than you have….
?
Could you provide an example of one of those "achievements"? Thanks in anticipation.
After that, could you justify your contention that my comment @ 17 "read like a misogynistic rant"? Again, thanks in anticipation.
Quite a few bills passed with her listed as "member in charge".
Whereas you write angry letters and frequently-inaccurate recollections of radio shows.
I've found some of Morrissey's rough transcripts of radio shows amusing – they're just in a different category to real politics.
Dear old McFlock, trying his best. Good to see a trier trying.
Quite a few bills passed….
Nothing of substance. Can you recall her ever saying anything memorable, in the House or elsewhere? The only thing I've heard her say, other than anodyne vacuous comments about various issues, is her utterly vapid assertion that the social welfare system should be handed over to private companies because it was “beyond the meagre resources of the government.”
Whereas you write angry letters…
Witty letters, you mean. That's why Kim Hill almost always reads out anything I send in. Although, speaking of anger, she almost choked on bile a few years ago when I pointed out to her that the singer Bobby Brown was, for all his crimes, a far better human being than Bill Clinton. That was anger, my friend. Learn to tell the difference.
and frequently-inaccurate recollections of radio shows.
That tired and unfair criticism has been invalid for several years now; as you and any other follower of the Breen oeuvre will know perfectly well, I have pretty much abandoned my old technique of rush transcripts from hasty transcripts by pencil or pen and replaced it with verbatim transcripts.
lol.
Check out the link. Many of the bills are decribed as "substantive amendments" lol
But ok. According to you, none of the hundreds or parliamentary records were of any substance. I'm sure your "witty" letters will be recorded in history for far longer than Hansard.
I'm sure your "witty" letters will be recorded in history for far longer than Hansard.
You can be sure of that, my friend: this writer's epistolary wars with (to name just a few) Brian Edwards, Michael Laws and Ms Kerre ohoWmad will still be amusing people long after the dreary speeches of undistinguished MPs are forgotten.
I also understand that some people read Charles Pooter's diary to this day.
Ouch. Now THAT was mean, man.
Already have. I gave you clear hints re. your put-downs of Amy Adams and you may want to re-read your own comment @ 17. I’ve also provided you with a Wiki link in which you can find info on Amy Adams’ 12-year career in politics. You could take study leave and come back when you have intellectually digested it all. Don’t choke on the heavy bits. To avoid any distraction, you may want to leave your keyboard alone for a while because I don’t think you’re any good at multi-tasking and you seem to be scouring the internet for male torsos. This is TS not TikTok.
you seem to be scouring the internet for male torsos
Love it! Keep it up, Incognito—you're the best when you put your mind to it.
You embody two quite different meanings of “funny” with a slight predisposition to one side.
Good on you, Incognito. Must dash now, sadly. I bid you a fond good evening.
http://gif-free.com/uploads/posts/2018-02/1519648251_kissing-rabbits.gif
Had a role in housing twice… well well.. that is problematic.
Under Adams and Bennett, it was a role in something more accurately called "unhousing." How many thousand state houses did Adams and her cronies sell?
Nice analysis of Adams there Morrissey, of course and like clockwork the usual band of liberal tools display their complete lack of humour with their unprovoked attacks.
Whom do you call a “liberal tool”? Are you another lazy stickler for bumper stickers and lachrymatory labels to show off your imaginary virtues to your puerile peers?
I don't think "liberal" is quite the word to use for their behaviour here, Adrian. And, to be fair, their attacks were due to my provoking them by pointing out that someone they had invested time in praising—for whatever hard-to-fathom strategic reason—was in fact nothing more than a shallow and flawed National Party team player. The bizarre accusation of misogyny is of course risible, and carries as much weight as our friend Andre’s recent claim that John Pilger, Glenn Greenwald and Jeremy Scahill are “useful idiots.”
You don’t know the difference between an observation and praise. The only praise in this deplorable thread is your self-praise together with your over-inflated view of self-importance, e.g. @ 7:18 PM. Your idiosyncratic put-downs of others, usually because of an alleged defect in their intellect with a bit of sexism thrown in when it suits you or because of websites or journalists they read in the present or in the past, are starting to wear very thin with me. Just saying.
Yeah, ATM, National and competent simply don't go together and that won't change no matter who they put up as leader. There's too many of them who are there simply for their own aggrandisement and the rorting of the public for their own well being and that of their funders.
Personally I think they should put up Brownlee or Smith. Let the deadwood prove their value by leading in this crisis, or retire gracefully into obscurity and let National rebuild a bit of credibility with the public.
From his talk of intelligence it seems Brownlee is involved in or committed to the black ops style of campaign, that draws invidious comparisons when Labour is led by the likes of an Ardern.
I don't of course expect them to do anything of the sort – they will plaster over their self-inflicted wounds and pretend their is no rot beneath the new facade. They will lose the election and squander the opportunity for reflection another term in opposition gives them. They will offer no informed critique of coalition policy or performance and voters will be obliged to wonder for what we are paying these vestigial members.
Gordon Campbell is onto it: http://werewolf.co.nz/2020/07/gordon-campbell-on-the-todd-muller-resignation/
Similarlylyly, it could be said that framing either suits the circumstance or doesn't, and the public have noticed that the Nats got that wrong. Under both recent leaders.
So the Nat caucus tonight is likely to seem like a flock of sheep rotating in the middle of the room bleating, each one thinking "I can't hear any sheepdog barking. How long is this gonna go on?" As long as it takes for one of the sheep to morph into a sheepdog.
But will the chosen dog know the gate to the electorate was the wrong one?? 🤔
Quite so. Then poor old Gordon drives straight off the rails:
It rather boggles the mind that he could so misread these two political contexts. Sure, we could blame the warping effect of life in the leftist bubble, but it seems an insufficient cause to produce such an effect.
"Poor old Gordon" may be driving "straight off the rails", but at least his thesis is clear.
I found "Similarlylyly" pretty encouraging!
Here's a reasonable response from RNZ to the affair.
Peter Wilson I think
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/421181/national-party-leadership-who-gets-the-hospital-pass
I don't want Amy Adams because when you Google her to find out the lastest Nat blunder, you get the movie star (who I actually like, she's been in some very good films).
But whoever the roulette wheel lands on, could they please just make it the last one? It's hard to get work done and the price of popcorn is rising.
Something is not adding up.
Muller spent time in the PMs office under Bulger. Muller has spent two terms in and around parliament. The stress and pressure would not be new to him.
Clearly, it is a thankless job being leader of the opposition. Rogue Boag can't have helped.
Seeing him get caught in a lie the other night on tele, obviously made him uncomfortble.
My reckons say that there is something behind the scenes that hasn't come out yet, and that is what has made his position untenable. He is too decent to tolerate the dodgy shenanagins his fellow politicians get up to.
Absolutely agree. There's more to this, am not sure what, but there's more.
Edit…. muller isn’t immune to dirty politics. After all he sneaked around for months rallying nat MP’s behind simon’s back before rolling him.
And he's thick with Hooton. Says it all, really.
Will Hooton be angling for his old RNZ 'From the left and from the right' gig?
Well, RNZ wouldn't care. They let him stay after Hager's book came out to comment on a debacle that he himself was in the thick of. They should've called it 'Hooton on Hooton'.
Agreed Cinny. I think the same. More to come indeed.
"She says the most important thing right now is Mr Muller's welfare."
Nikki Kaye.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/421155/live-blog-todd-muller-resigns-as-national-party-leader
Really? National voters across the land think, "…the most important thing right now is Mr Muller's welfare."
With an election looming?
The Voice of Reason – Sarah Dowie
"Outgoing National MP Sarah Dowie says the party's leadership coup in May was a mistake and Simon Bridges should've remained as leader."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/421155/live-blog-todd-muller-resigns-as-national-party-leader
"Gerry Brownlee wouldn't say who he is supporting to take over the top job.
The MP for Ilam says he respects Muller's reasons for stepping down.
He says the situation the party has found itself in isn't very pleasant. "
"Isn't very pleasant"
He has a light touch, their Gerry.
More Possible Replacements for Todd Muller
No. 2: Gerry Brownlee….
https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/9/x/p/1/x/image.gallery.galleryLandscape.600×400.1a1l14.png/1458000279581.jpg
No. 3: "Honest" Todd Barclay…
http://www.newshub.co.nz/dam/form-uploaded-images/todd-barclay-newshub-1120.jpg
No. 4: Dr Nick….
https://resources.stuff.co.nz/content/dam/images/1/l/f/i/z/s/image.related.StuffLandscapeSixteenByNine.620×349.1lfi0o.png/1504501119377.jpg
"“I’m feeling very sorry for Todd Muller actually, he’s been a delight to work for,” Collins said."
A "delight"?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300056749/todd-muller-resignation-judith-collins-nikki-kaye-and-simon-bridges-wont-rule-out-runs-at-national-leader
"Honest Todd Barclay" – "Page not found" – that's very good, Morrisey!
AmyAdams is not the next Nat leader…she offers nothing more than Muller potentially offered….my pick is Judith, assuming she will take the job at this time…which may be her last chance
.
Collins is pretty consistently the most popular Nat after the Party Leader … as controversial as she is, she's probably their best bet … would quickly stem the free-flowing desertion to ACT … & if she goes full-on anti-Woke Culture Wars in the Election Campaign – and manages it in a shrewd Wedge Politics manner (informed by a close reading of public opinion) – she might just galvanise & polarise enough voters to avoid the humiliating defeat they're probably otherwise hurtling towards at breakneck speed.(although – starved of Polling data – we're currently only making informed guesses at the moment).
The counter-argument, of course, is that this misreads the current zeitgeist – the bulk of voters full of gratitude to the Govt for their COVID-19 response & imbued with an associated sense of national unity … but it might just be the only way to win back a segment of Nat-to-Lab deserters, albeit nowhere near enough for anything approaching victory.
They need a colourful combative polariser (in the Muldoon mould) as a circuit-breaker. Anyone else will be seen as dull as dishwater. We’re talking, after all, about shoring-up National’s core support rather than aiming for victory.
The real question is whether she will put herself forward for an almost certain defeat….as said it may be her last opportunity but she may not want the loss…but it would look ok on the CV
What was Bill English muttering after the last election, something about a 'moral mandate' to govern?
[Fixed the same error in user name again]
[Fixed the same error in user name again]
No Lynn
National does not need a weak, insipid, generic, bland moderate who will lead them further down the weak, cucked, labour-lite path of SJW-appeasement that John Key set them on 12 years ago.
At this point National needs a leader with balls, who will horrify the permanently offended wet left. OMG DID SHE just say that?!? She can't say that!! Wait…. can she say that??
Look, I really don’t mind if National refuses the center and goes the way fo the Nutbar Party (formally known as Act). That just leaves more room for Labour and the Greens, and possibly even NZF to occupy.
The problem for nutbar political parties is that they find it extremely hard to drag enough voters their way to actually win a fair election.
And it's Crusher. Game on. 😎
Maureen Pugh?