No Right Turn: The only way is Winston
Written By:
- Date published:
4:02 pm, September 25th, 2017 - 45 comments
Categories: election 2017, MMP, nz first, winston peters -
Tags: #isitoveryet?, coalition deals
Idiot/Savant at No Right Turn writes:
____________________________________________________________________________________
So, the election happened. And rather than seeing the stunning Jacindamania victory we were hoping for, instead we’re left with an uncomfortable situation for everyone. National has clearly lost its mandate: their vote dropped, despite sucking up the 4% bigot vote from the Conservatives, and their coalition partners were eliminated. But Labour hasn’t won one either, even in combination with the Greens. While the special votes will probably shift a few seats around, that overall outcome won’t change. The Greens have already said that they won’t support National, and despite the verbage from pundits desperate to make word-count, they’re not going to change their mind (hint: its in the name. They’re Greens, so supporting dolphin-murdering, river-poisoning, National-Park-mining environmental vandals is off the table, even if you ignore the commitment to social justice). So its basicly a question of who Winston decides to support.
If he supports National in a Black-Blue government, its pretty much a re-run of 1996: tough on crime, shitting on immigrants and beneficiaries. No more privatisation, and no increase in the pension age, but it will also mean broadly the status quo with added nastiness. Especially to Maori. Winston wants to eliminate the Maori seats, and English has refused to rule it out. Which tells us that the big difference between English and John Key is that English is a racist, just like Don Brash.
If he supports Labour, then things get messier, because it will also need to involve the Greens. There’s significant common ground there over housing, worker’s rights and economic justice, but also significant differences around climate change and fresh water. While a Red-Black-Green “Kenya” or “Afghan” coalition with all three parties in Cabinet is possible, the differences (and Winston’s hostility to the Greens) may mean that one party sits out and simply provides confidence and supply. And TBH, given how government with Winston usually goes, I think the Greens should take that option: demand one big concession for confidence and supply, but promise nothing else, and effectively sit on the cross-benches to keep Winston honest. They’d lose the ability to push the government in a greener direction, but TBH I think the extra power to veto stuff is more important – and more likely to appeal to their supporters. Being in Cabinet with Winston when he shits on immigrants and refugees is probably not a place the Greens want to be.
Regardless, I expect whatever government which emerges to be unstable. Winston will throw a tantrum and walk out, or he’ll want to retire to a corrupt sinecure appointment in London or Washington. And if he goes left, there’s the added danger of National encouraging waka-jumpers. On current numbers, they only need to bribe two junior NZFirst MPs with Ministerial salaries to have a majority, and as we’ve seen from 1997, they’re not above that. Its not going to be a comfortable term. But it will probably be an exciting one.
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It seems to me this is part of the interregnum: when the social order is changing, over 50% of the voters want change of some sort; but there’s no full consensus as to the kind of change; the old order is breaking down but the new way forward is not really known.
It’s possible that the new way forward will be forged in the negotiations between parties and/or the way inter-party relationships develop over the next 3 years.
And it WILL be a bumpy ride.
Gramski nailed it, and you nailed it by referring to Gramski.
🙂
You say Gramski, I say Gramschi.
My thought. Is Wayne Eaglson a “head that had to roll”???? (Winnie’s super?)
Interesting… but surely there are plenty more where he came from? Maybe Collins… she has leaking history and Bill wont mind cos he must know her knife is heading to his back. She could defect to ACT. She would sit comfortably over there….
She already has , … its just that its been by proxy for the last few years…
Sneaky…
Now it appears the Speaker is gone.
Joyce will not be in the negotiations for the Nats.
Boy, nothing will stand in Bill’s way!!!
No , … and in true tradition of the flallegrant’s ,… we will see Bill offering penance to Winston for the leak on super, apology’s for Keys rejection of Peters and NZ First , and sundry other incidents.
If ever there was an arselicker,… this one must surely win first prize.
To think NZ politics has sunken so low…
Wild Katipo,
Yeah it makes me puck when I see Billl English ‘Groveling’ to Winston for forgiveness!!!
Talk about a hollow man eh!!!!!!
Bill English = full of nothing.
Could argue that like an auction NZ First might have more power if there are 2 bidders in the running. If Labour shows little interest then NZ First wont get as many concessions which will cause a more fractious and destructive relationship with National and will give Labour more chance of teaming up with NZ First & Greens to curb Nationals Neo Lib tendencies.
Has this been established already, or is it just something that people assume happened?
I wonder if the Conservative vote went to NZ first, and this masked a larger than thought shift from NZ 1st to Labour.
I can’t see the logic of people voting National in 2011, Conservative in 2014 and the National in 2017. I mean, I can’t see the logic of people voting National at all, but you get what I mean …
Could also mean that people simply stayed home this time around.
Well , the truth is that there is still , a sizable portion of the population that reject certain aspects of the progressive movement. Its because of their belief systems , ie ; conservative Christians who view the rampant far right wing neo liberalism of National as not having a social conscience… which is in conflict with the other tenets of their faith ,…
So now the Conservatives are no more or diminished,… but that vote has to go some-wheres,… it will go , begrudgingly ,.. to the next in line ,.. the Nats.
English and co know this so they see it as less diffusion. And welcome that result. Doesn’t mean that the conservative element among Christianity is happy with it though …
And lets not FORGET ,- 77% of NZ First membership want a coalition with Labour , – not National… so there’s another place for those conservative Christians to go…and many among those conservative Christians are against globalism / neo liberalism ,… so,.. they find a comfortable nationalistic home in NZ First.
Is there a source for that claim?
I ran it through Google and it popped up on the Daily Blog, posted by yourself back in July. Where did you get it from, and how do you know things have not changed since?
EDIT – Found it. https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/winstons-choice-77-of-his-voters-prefer-labour-led
Bit hopeful. No mention of it being a Lab-NZ1st-Green coalition, which might have queered the result. Also the ‘Don’t knows’ are not included, which apparently is enough to invalidate a poll. Or at least it was a fortnight ago …
My guess 2% of youth and ‘alternate middle class, liberal, male neoliberal vote’, sucked up by TOP. More left than right votes went south to TOP.
We keep saying “who Winston decides to go with”.
No.
Let us decide!
We can make our price so high that we can FORCE Winston to go with the Tories.
Who wants him? And who wants this term in Government?
Let those people stand there for three years holding the tray of shit they have created.
A ridiculous bunch of clowns, well known for their failures and lies, desperately trying to be dignified. Bitten in the arse constantly by the dreaded Winston, while they whirl around searching for an idea.
Meanwhile, as a much larger opposition, with a leader who commands both respect and media interest, we hone our policies and practices to make 2020 the sort of reforming tide that carries another great Labour government to a proper incumbency.
In one fell swoop we can wipe the floor with both the Tories and old Winston.
Two birds with one stone!
It’s the long game.
It is also not that simple. Winston needs a big party as much as they need him. If everyone tells him to get stuffed he is Not in Govt. He can only wag the dog so much. We know Bill and Steven’s threshold is pretty low. They will do whatever they need to remain on the big salaries to reward the big donors. Labour? It has been a long time out of power, where is their threshold? And Winston must know that to get in govt with Labour he also needs Greens.
So maybe we can all start framing it differently. It is not a scrum or other pointless sporting analogy. It is negotiation. Not just with other parties but to remain credible with respective memberships. That must take time. We should want it to take time so we can trust the process and, hopefully, thought that went in.
Nats have the inside running I think cos they and many of their voters have shown that power trumps integrity and trust… so they expect to have some of what they voted for trashed
Ardern has drawn a line over a referendum for Maori electorates – she says it’s not on the table in negotiations with NZF. She says they fought hard for the Maori seats, making some promises to Maori they intend to keep.
A point mihirangi Forbes made was not to under estimate the influence of maori/whanau in negotiations.
Kelvin Davis and Peters are cousins, willow jean prime and Winston had a good contest, shane jones, Nanaia Mahuta..
What an opportunity for a power block of maori in the north….
Of course you’re right tracey, it’s not that simple. But you’ll appreciate that I’m writing as a Labour fan not a professional politician.
I’ll support whatever they decide is best.
It’s just that I’m very proud of what my chosen party has achieved in these last short weeks. Our new leader increased the Labour vote by only a few points less than Micky Savage did in 1935. That ain’t hay. Well not to me anyway.
I’m hoping they make all the right moves so that they’re in a position to really sweep this place in 2020.
If that means a three way arrangement in Government, then that’s their decision, made on the basis of their superior knowledge.
Mine is merely an amateur suggestion.
100000% tracey, you are truly correct.
Winston wants his legacy, so the Party (NZ First) to carry on when he does eventually retire, which does mainly consists of lots of poor retirees needs to be there to speak for them.
None of the big Parties talks abouut serving the interests of the seniors so when make talks about pushing NZF into the dying carcass of the National Party which is now a liability that will kill NZF as it has UF,Act, Maori party.
All the talk makes even me as a lowering once middle class 73yr old, just a little troubled in my senior years.
We as not the rich set toiled paid our taxes for over 55yrs and now are ignored???? At least Winston treats us with some respect.
I do not own a home, and still have debts to pay, andnot in good health so please dont cobble me with the false narative of being a ‘rich babyboomer’.
“And who wants this term in Government”.
Every single politician in the house except, just possibly. Seymour. Even then it is only because he is a realist and accepts he has to be sacrificed for Winston.
They all want it because they are all firm followers of the dictum that –
“”Your worst day in government is 100 times better than your best day in opposition. In government you get to achieve things and get things done”
12 years is too much for the veterans of the Labour Party.
Meanwhile, considering your statement about “with a leader who commands both respect and media interest”.
I think the interest will continue. I am not so sure about the respect. She never made any impact in the House, did she? She has to make her mark there and so far she has failed. You can only go so far on a diet of selfies with students. Ardern really will have to settle down and concentrate on getting some knowledge of policy formation. Her buggering around with the “tax policy” during the campaign has to go.
Let me see – aging politician contrives love auction between political factions – what could possibly go wrong?
“shitting on immigrants”? What do you mean? Approximately 75% of new migrants voted National according to surveys. The left needs to wake up to the fact that colonisation began in 1840 and continues today in the form of NZ’s large scale immigration policy. The only people being shat on are the indigenous people of Aotearoa.
Hence National’s Immigration Scheme 26% of Aucklanders now of Asian Ethinicity ?
Big money
Blue dragons.
Kauri – do you want more people shitting on you or less? Have a look at what happens to indigenous people in India and China. Want people voting for that?
I still don’t understand how Winston lost Northland he hasn’t done anything wrong and Labour & National have neglected the place for 30-40 years ?
He wants to get North Port up and running and he wants to sort out the rail network to Whangarei and beyond, I truely don’t understand why voters would stray back to National unless it is a tribal thing ?
People are tribal.
Hongi Ika
Educated guess it would have been due to possible rumour lies from National?
Pension scandal dropped Winston votes – who knows what dirty social media campaign the day before against him in Northland was running.
Also no strategy. Labour helped him in by-election. Opposition need to collaborate more.
Bill English calling Winston Peters a maverick ‘not very smart’, NZ First leader says…
‘Bill English says Winston Peters has always performed a “maverick role” in politics – a description Peters has labelled unwise.
The National Party leader made the comment to Radio New Zealand’s Guyon Espiner this morning as he discussed the state of coalition talks with New Zealand First.
English said he had known Peters since 1990. Their relationship had swung between “combative” and “sociable” but he respected Peters for his “maverick role” in Parliament.
“That’s always been a bit of his brand.”
Speaking in Whangarei to 1 News, Peters – who is set to begin negotiations with English over a potential coalition government – said the comment “[wasn’t] a very smart thing to say”.’
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11926394
English is not very smart, he has lived in the closet at the Reserve Bank and warmed his chair in the Beehive, no real life practical experience.
Whereas Winston shares a vague similarity with these magnificent creatures…
Look Into the Eyes of a Wolf – YouTube
you tube▶ 0:35
This is what happens when a wild wolf approaches a pet dog – YouTube
Video for This is what happens when a wild wolf approaches a pet dog▶ 4:43
He did not get the moniker ‘ The Silver Fox ‘ by accident.
And as for the mutts who make up the National party ?
The wolf , may ,… just may , … decide to condescend to their level,… then again ,… he may not.
Are we mixing our metaphors, or our hirsute creatures, at least?
A (silver) fox is a leisurely beast you find warming itself on your shed in your estate allotment in London… they are timid, retiring, and fearful of people.
A wolf is quite a different beast…
Yes , and that’s just the problem ,… Peters is not ,… a shy timid retiring type afraid of people. And as far as National is concerned?… he’s going to tear them apart.
+1 Hongi Ika – popping wife Mary on the ‘new, inexperienced’ lifeline alternative board not a sign of intelligence – troughing was probably not a good move prior to the election, but who can blame him when all his mates are hoovering up public money grants?
Bill English got Winston ejected out of parliament in 1992.
When this little shit storm broke in 2012, guess who stepped up to offer help and challenged other leaders to do the same?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10785474
” Speaker Lockwood Smith has defended a decision not to grant special funding for deaf MP Mojo Mathers’ parliamentary note-taker, saying he does not have the authority to approve it.
The Green Party reacted with outrage today after Ms Mathers was told she would have to fund her note-taker from her MP support budget, or that the party would have to fund it.
The note-taker provides Ms Mathers with an instant transcript of what is being said in the House, and the MP said that without it she could not participate in Parliament.
The cost of the staff to take notes was estimated to be $20,000-$30,000 a year.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters offered to contribute funding from his parliamentary leaders’ budget for Ms Mathers to take part in Parliament, and he has challenged other leaders to do the same.
“It is unthinkable that the Parliamentary Service insists on a working environment free from discrimination on the basis of disability, yet a deaf MP is refused funding to enable her to do her job,” Mr Peters said.”
For all his less endearing features, Peters has a profound sense of justice and fairness.
Same for many of the other NZF MPs.
Closer to the left, methinks.
Mehopes.
Peters ranks up there along with the likes of Blood and Guts Patton.
Love him or hate him , the mans got balls.
Wild Katipo,
Winston at 72 is still a very inspiring man and is now needed more than ever with the ratpack of Government backstabbers, horse and rumour traders.
Parliament is where Winston will exel this term believe it mate.
The opposition knows this to that is why they are deserately trying to cobble Winston onto National who will implode within a year from now.
People don’t realise that Winston has a heart and a sense of fairness. You might not agree with him all the time. But he’s first in at Pike River too.
Quite frankly I think poor Mojo should have been higher on the Green list than Chloe. Chloe should have been at 11% of party votes, so she would have to increase the Green votes and work for her place.
Winston on obscene dairy boss pay…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11926495
“Shareholders need to be reminded that their payout of $6.52 per kilogram of milksolids this season, is well under what they got in real terms for the final two seasons before Mr Spierings came onto the management scene.”
+1 – with only 1 million in CEO salary the extra 7 million could have been used to fence off the rivers or for Fonterra to pay for it’s own white elephant irrigation schemes.
No Right Turn always my first stop for insightful political commentary. Yes there are hurdles but as is rightly pointed out its up to Labour and the Greens to be accommodating. I have concerns about Labour in particular myself. In my opinion they don;t have much of a rep for playing well with others.