Northland’s ghost jobs

Written By: - Date published: 9:24 am, March 20th, 2015 - 42 comments
Categories: accountability, by-election, employment, jobs, national - Tags: , , ,

One of National’s big claims in the buy election was that they had created 7500 new jobs in Northland. The claim featured prominently on National’s buy election page – as preserved by Google:
osborne-jobs

That’s the electorate candidate clearly claiming jobs created in the electorate. Lies lies lies.

As Winston Peters pointed out, the claim always looked dodgy, because unemployment in Northland had fallen by only 100. Eventually the truth came out:

Northland jobs figures always regional – Joyce

…Mr Joyce said not all the new jobs to which he had referred were in the Northland electorate. “We’re unable to a breakdown sub-regionally and obviously some will be in Whangarei but then there’s also people who live in the Northland electorate that work in Whangarei and vice-versa. So we’re talking about the region economically as a whole.”
…
New Zealand First leader and candidate, Winston Peters, said National had been misleading about job creation in the electorate and it was clear many of the jobs would have been in Whangarei.

Joyce’s evasions are just more keyesque semantic games – the fact is that the claim has now vanished from the current version of their buy election page.

So, Ghost jobs once again. And that real reduction of 100 unemployed? Overtaken by events on Wednesday. Here’s Duncan Garner:

NATIONAL’S CYNICAL AND DESPERATE BID FOR NORTHLAND

National is fighting for its political life in Northland. They are desperate and they’ve pulled out the chequebook. … And so the bribes are coming thick and fast. That’s how desperate National is.
…
The 10 one lane bridge upgrades is simply cynical politics that only highlights how desperate National is. That promise has backfired. Even National MPs privately admit that.

And now, today more bad news.

150 forest contractors in the region have lost their jobs at Harvest Pro. This is devastating news. This will hurt.

If National told fewer lies and worked harder on regional development they wouldn’t be in this mess.

42 comments on “Northland’s ghost jobs ”

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  1. Sable 1
    20 March 2015 at 9:36 am

    No surprises really, just business as usual for the dirty Nats.

  2. DH 2
    20 March 2015 at 9:56 am

    Armstrong gave a breakdown in the Herald here;

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11419459

    It says 3500 of the 7500 were managers and apparently no-one thought to check their figures.

    How can nearly half of new jobs be management, has every worker up there got their own personal manager?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 2.1
      20 March 2015 at 10:13 am

      3500 new managers equals 28,000 new workers. 🙄

    • ghostwhowalksnz 2.2
      20 March 2015 at 5:42 pm

      I went to Stats NZ website to look up the numbers for the ‘household labour market survey that this was based on.

      Interestly this survey is discontinued beginning 2015, so it must not be that ‘good’

      back to their stats for Northland Region

      For 2011 Sept Quarter shows 69, 600 employed

      For 2013 Sept quarter shows 69, 200 employes

      For this period we have a drop of 400 employess

      Also consider the sampling error could be around 9.7 ( could 9000??)

      For comparison Auckland region has 740,000 employed at 2013 quarter

      So we are expected to believe after being stable or slightly dipping from 2011 to 2013

      there is a JUMP of around 10% in the Sept Quarter 2014 ? ( the 7500 extra employees, most of whom were managers !!!?

  3. fisiani 3
    20 March 2015 at 10:13 am

    There have been 7500 jobs created in the Northland region in 2014. Can you point to the National candidate claiming there have been 7,500 jobs created merely in the electorate of Northland? You cannot.

    “That’s the electorate candidate clearly claiming jobs created in the electorate. Lies lies lies.”
    Eh…. No it’s clearly not. Northland is a region of New Zealand. It has had 7,500 new jobs in 2014. You cannot pull the wool over my eyes. Busted again.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 3.1
      20 March 2015 at 10:14 am

      3500 of them are new managers. Oh happy day!

      Keep believing Fisi.

    • Ovid 3.2
      20 March 2015 at 10:26 am

      Northland ranks 62nd out of 70 electorates for the number of people in full time employment. Median income, at $22,000 is 61st out of 70 electorates (NZ’s median income as a whole is $28,500). The electorate has fallen behind and National’s policies aren’t working for it.

    • Lanthanide 3.3
      20 March 2015 at 10:33 am

      “There have been 7500 jobs created in the Northland region in 2014. Can you point to the National candidate claiming there have been 7,500 jobs created merely in the electorate of Northland? You cannot.”

      Yes, so National is deliberately using confusing language to make people think they said A when they really said B.

      You’re just fine with this, of course.

    • KJT 3.4
      20 March 2015 at 10:38 am

      Does that count all the people sacked every 89 days, as soon as the WINZ subsidy runs out, from the fast food joints.

    • Sans Cle 3.5
      20 March 2015 at 10:46 am

      @ Fisiani
      Perhaps a matter of semantics….but Osborne (or Joyce as campaign manager) should at least know the boundaries of the electorate he is running for….. From above ” Mark Osborne working hard for National: between 11 and 28 March, Northland will vote for a new MP to represent the Northland region in Parliament”

      Northland region…..really?
      Is that intentional misrepresentation or just sloppiness?

      See how we (as ALL New Zealanders, including National party supporters) can believe very little that is published by the Nationsl Party and have to fact check everything? Fact checking is becoming tedious and a monumental waste of time.
      It is not good for democracy, social cohesion and nation building to have a government that creates so much mistrust.

    • jenny kirk 3.6
      20 March 2015 at 11:09 am

      I can point to the National candidate claiming there were 7500 new jobs in the Northland electorate, Fisiani. This is what he said to a candidates meeting in Kaikohe which I attended. And guess what ! The 130 + audience laughed at him. Literally laughed and guffawed. It was very funny observing this.

    • KJT 3.8
      20 March 2015 at 6:24 pm

      The household Labour force survey, which was more accurate, by the way than WINZ numbers which tend to double count, if they are accurate at all, said a dip of 400 jobs in a year, before National discontinued it, along with many other embarrassing statistical series.

      I wonder why?

  4. ghostwhowalksnz 4
    20 March 2015 at 10:36 am

    As for Osbourne being a ‘small business owner’

    Thats another joke. hes a career Council bureaucrat. Its his wife who runs a small beauty salon and as Osbourne is a CA he does the books.

    Doing accounts for a few hours a month doesnt been you are ‘running a small business’

    They trying very very hard to hide the fact hes a council bureaucrat and for the poorly run Far North Council too boot

    • Skinny 4.1
      20 March 2015 at 10:59 am

      +1
      Yes a fact pointed out to me by a group of howling farmers spewing the cow cocky never got the nod. I laughed when one bemoaned ” they choose useless Osbourne the fat cat bureaucrat mate of Sabin…fuck em I’m voting Peters not that patsy.”

    • greywarshark 4.2
      20 March 2015 at 2:02 pm

      ghost
      If you would like to name a few things that the Far North Council have shown incompetence in I would be interested. I have been watching the Far North, having connections with it and so know a bit about it. Why has the Far North Council not been able to get better roads for the Far North for instance, and other things you know of?

      • ghostwhowalksnz 4.2.1
        20 March 2015 at 5:52 pm

        They were notorious for not getting their rates struck on time, so they had to send out rates bills based on last years rates and then half way through the year finally get their rates sorted and send out new bills.

        It was a real mess

        • greywarshark 4.2.1.1
          20 March 2015 at 8:19 pm

          ghost
          That sort of thing tends to make people grouchy. Perhaps the Council has always been between a rock and a hard place. A biggish poor area needing lots, but without swathes of money coming in. and every improvement to allow and encourage growth is hard won and then they have to find funds for infrastructure for it. Probably a lack of cpaital investment and regional well-planned aid from Central govt. Is that a fair summary?

  5. greywarshark 5
    20 March 2015 at 10:46 am

    Picked up on your little quip ‘buy election’! You are sharp early in the day.! Or a Feudian slip?

  6. Clemgeopin 6
    20 March 2015 at 11:16 am

    But one thing is clear : During this bye-election bribe period alone, scores of Government Cabinet Ministers, as well as heaps and heaps of National party MPs, advisers and sycophants have been fully employed in Northland, slogging like weighty-pork-barrel-carrying-fat-flying-pigs, working away almost 24/7, to beat an old man that the Prime Minister has proclaimed to have zero chance of winning! And what is even more cool is that these privileged worthy limousine driving workers are happily being silently subsidised by us, the admirable kind nation wide tax payers.

    That is at least 500 jobs in just under a month! Unemployment? What unemployment! That would be 7,500+500=8,000 ‘NEW’ jobs, as per the superb story teller, the honourable honest Steve Joyce!

    28th of March. Can’t wait!…8 more days to go! Go Osborne! Go National! Go, go go!

  7. ghostwhowalksnz 7
    20 March 2015 at 11:56 am

    Cant see how Osborne/Joyce will stay under the election spending limit.

    The taxpayers are forking out for ministerial visits, but Osborne has to show ALL advertsing costs including leaflets and hoardings.

    Plus there is no ‘cost sharing’ with the partys nationwide campaign as its not a general election.

    Joyce has form for evading spending limits as when he illegally used the GST money for TV ads during Don Brashs run.

    Could we have a court petition to force him out because of exceeding the limit.
    Winnie would know all ablout that as its happened to him in the past

  8. Phil Tate 8
    20 March 2015 at 12:03 pm

    Apparently we’re all wrong to talk about 7500 jobs. I asked Stats (via tweet), if they could shed light on the quality of these jobs, rather than raw numbers. Their response;

    “7,500 is number of people employed, not the number of jobs. Main industries contributing to increase are Healthcare & social assist, up 2,600 people, Construction up 2,300 Retail trade & accommodation up 2,300.”

    In response to a follow-up q I posed about the quality (e.g. FT vs 0hrs), they noted that;

    “6,600 were in full-time employment, usually working 30 hours or more per week”.

    So this could relate to 6600 people (88%) holding down multiple jobs that give them more than 30 hrs a week. This may be the 90% figure referenced in the Herald article, but it seems politicians are playing fast and loose with definitions (unsurprising).

    Apparently the kind of detail that would clarify this question is not available via Stats website but can be sought through emailed request.

    • greywarshark 8.1
      20 March 2015 at 12:42 pm

      Thanks for the employment figures Phil.
      It seems that we need easily identified categories when talking about employment.
      As far as hours are concerned –
      #1 for person in one job for 39-40 hours per week (ie historical full-time week)
      #2 for person in one job for 30-40 hours per week
      #3 for person in one job for 40-50 hours per week
      #4 for person in one job for 50+ hours per week
      #5 for person in one job for 20-30 hours per week
      #6 for person in one job for 5-20 hours per week
      #7 for person in one job for 1-5 hours per week

      Then the same hours for workers with multiple jobs noting how may jobs, ie

      #1M(?) for person doing multiple jobs (number stated) for 39-40 hours per week
      and so on down.

      All these figures represent important aspects that we need to understand about employment as the figures we regularly see are just handy for indicating broad trends but with not enough details on what’s happening and how people are doing.

      Also I would like similar detailed figures for volunteer workers. And both volunteer and paid workers would have a code for the sector of enterprise they were working in.
      That would give us something to chew on with some fibre. I wonder if detailed breakdowns as I consider necessary above, are available from Stats? I don’t find my way through to my desired outcome without considerable effort and some swear words which don’t act as open sesames but I use them in hope.

  9. Alfonso Peres 9
    20 March 2015 at 1:05 pm

    All these lies from National yet the Labour candidate/party has so little credibility with the people of Northland the leader of that party has asked the voters to support an old racist conservative.

    Winning!

    • ropata 9.1
      20 March 2015 at 2:07 pm

      i suppose you would vote Sabin or Lundy or any random crook as long as he wore a blue tie?
      i am glad not everyone is a mindless cretin like you

  10. fisiani 10
    20 March 2015 at 1:18 pm

    Some of the jobs where in Whangarei I hear the winge. Where is Whangerei??? That’s right, It’s in NORTHLAND. 7,500 jobs in 2014 in Northland is the truth. Read it and weep.

    • ropata:rorschach 10.1
      20 March 2015 at 1:53 pm

      Whangarei is not in the northland electorate and you know it, yet you persist in boasting about these ghost jobs bro.
      Auckland is in the North Island, should we count those jobs too?

      • fisiani 10.1.1
        20 March 2015 at 2:29 pm

        No one is claiming that Whangarei is in the Northland electorate. Read the original post. Whangarei is in the Northland region. in case you do not have access to a map Auckland is not in Northland region.
        The entire post is claiming that truth is a lie. How desperate are you? Prime numbers not adding up.

        • peter h 10.1.1.1
          20 March 2015 at 3:00 pm

          So why, have they pulled it of their Bi election page. THAT WHAT DOES NOT ADD UP

        • McFlock 10.1.1.2
          20 March 2015 at 3:40 pm

          So, just to be clear, your lot are advertising 7500 ghost jobs to the Northland electorate when you actually mean those jobs are shared with another electorate of about the same size.

  11. NZJester 11
    20 March 2015 at 3:27 pm

    So was the line “from the current version of their buy election page” an accidental misspelling, or a deliberate dig at Nationals tactics of tying to buy Northland with pork?

  12. fisiani 12
    20 March 2015 at 3:45 pm

    7,500 real jobs.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1
      20 March 2015 at 4:13 pm

      Including 3500 managers! Astonishing. No, wait…

    • Lanthanide 12.2
      20 March 2015 at 4:25 pm

      How many are 0-hours?

    • adam 12.3
      21 March 2015 at 12:30 am

      At this point fisiani is trying on an old propaganda trick or two.

      1. The bigger the lie, more chance people will believe it

      2. Repeat the lie often enough, and the media will report it as truth

      Problem for you fisiani – is your hubris methodology, and the fact we all see through you cheap propaganda tricks.

  13. Brewer 13
    20 March 2015 at 4:08 pm

    Maybe 1800 technicians have been employed expanding buildings and facilities for 3500 new WINZ case managers. Full time jobs until March 29 with possible extension through November 2017.

  14. jenny kirk 14
    20 March 2015 at 5:48 pm

    “7,500 is number of people employed, not the number of jobs. Main industries contributing to increase are Healthcare & social assist, up 2,600 people, Construction up 2,300 Retail trade & accommodation up 2,300.” from Phil Tate’s post at 8 above.

    I’m wondering if quite a few of the construction jobs are happening out at Marsden Point (a part of the Whangarei electorate), and whether quite a few of the 2600 people employed in healthcare/social assist are also in Whangarei where a new cancer wing has been opened recently, and where the Northland DHB is always advertising vacant positions.

    I note also that the Stats people say “7500 are EMPLOYED, not the number of jobs”

    There’s a difference. Could be quite a few vacancies have been unfilled for quite a long time, and now in the last year with people returning home from Oz, those vacancies are being filled.

    And I wouldn’t mind betting they’re mostly in Whangarei. The little townships throughout the Northland electorate are not showing much visible sign of any increased local income.

  15. Stuart Munro 15
    23 March 2015 at 11:15 am

    Employment figures need to have a version of the academic EFTs – equivalent full-time students. This will constrain Joyce & ‘Obspawn’s ability to use fictitious job numbers to validate their non-performance.