Open mike 03/12/2024

14 comments on “Open mike 03/12/2024 ”

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1. gsays 1

   3 December 2024 at 6:33 am

   I posted this last night, but it bears repeating.

   Please give support (a toot, perhaps) to the nurses that are going on strike tomorrow.

   Striking to save one of the few mechanisms that show when they are understaffed- CCDM. Care Capacity Demand Management.

   Striking because of the insult of an offer they received – up to 1% in April.

   Reply
   • Tony Parker 1.1

     3 December 2024 at 7:25 am

     Almost as insulting as the Support Staff in schools offer of 0% for most with some (those at the top of their step and those at the bottom) getting 1% each year for the next 3 years. The Ministry has advised that they should view their annual salary progression steps as your ‘pay rise’. Every other claim was rejected.

     Reply
     • gsays 1.1.1

       3 December 2024 at 9:28 am

       My hunch is most support workers aren't members if the union.

       Sounds like a good opportunity to get organized. It's easier to insult individuals than a group.

       In the past, E Tu has managed to get a one off $750 payment for unionised caretakers after negotiations.

       Reply
2. Georgecom 2

   3 December 2024 at 7:49 am

   Nice to see some fighting taking place in charter school land. Charter school lover and magnate alwyn poole had 4 applications turned down. He thinks seymour isnt up to it and should resign. Lol. Alwyn gets all excited when David announces a party and then get angry when he isnt invited.

   Reply
   • bwaghorn 2.1

     3 December 2024 at 10:40 am

     He probably didn't donate enough the the coc parties, a healthy donation is how you grease the wheels with those lot

     Reply
3. thinker 3

   3 December 2024 at 8:02 am

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/535469/new-poll-delivers-hung-parliament-bad-news-for-christopher-luxon-as-preferred-pm

   I opened this item from yesterday. The slight lead that Hipkins has over Luxon is based on the favour ability scores. In the middle is a 'not sure' group who are much larger for Hopkins than Luxon. In other words, looking at the unfavorable scores, a huge amount more dislike Luxon than Hipkins.

   Now, the other very important takeaway from this article is WHY people have turned away from the government – why the honeymoon is well and truly over, as the article says. It's apparently because of the approach taken with the treaty bill/race relations in general.

   Luxon, the great strategist and negotiator, signed his government to six months of said treaty bill being at the forefront of it's activities. Given the importance that the public place on race relations by this government, any good news will have to compete with the spectre of the pending select committee outcome.

   That's not to say that the treaty select committee activity will be headlines every day for six months, but Luxon's nailed his colours to a very unpopular mast and can't get them down for at least six months. More, if the summer break for politicians is added to the life of the select committee (my guess).

   I don't think Luxon would make a great chess player…

   Anytime the left wants to have a dig at the government, it just needs to find something newsworthy about the select committee and the government approach to race relations in general.

   Reply
   • Dennis Frank 3.1

     3 December 2024 at 8:38 am

     Dunno if chess is the right game analogy. Lux presumed a rebound in the economy, which may be delayed further yet. I agree that allowing Seymour to forment racism hasn't worked out well. I'm not sure if Seymour is being disingenuous when he tells everyone he just wants them to think about Treaty principles. I suspect he's sufficiently simple-minded to actually believe it.

     So punters see the sideshow as evading the ongoing failure of neoliberalism, except they lack the intellect to become conscious of that, so their seeing is tacit. They just keep recycling the stance of awaiting an economic recovery, as if faith & hope can make the thing work again. God willing, it may, but the mass psychology involved is driven by a casino play rather than chess.

     Reply
     • Drowsy M. Kram 3.1.1

       3 December 2024 at 9:33 am

       Nicky Hager: Beware the smooth talker with a forked tongue
       David Seymour and Act know exactly what they’re doing.
       …
       Act billboards say End Division by Race, but it is actually
       more like Defend Division by Wealth.

       I'm not sure if Seymour is being disingenuous when he tells everyone he just wants them to think about Treaty principles. I suspect he's sufficiently simple-minded to actually believe it.

       Such suspicions may play into Seymour's hands – he'll be two weeks away from becoming our deputy PM when the select committee reports on 14 May 2025.

       Let’s not play into Seymour’s hands
       The message against the coalition Treaty Principles Bill should be simple: the Treaty protects all New Zealanders from corporate exploitation

       As noted by the editorial writer Rupert O’Brien, “The Treaty principles have proved a significant roadblock to both corporatisation and privatisation in the past and present a clear threat to any plans of future development of public assets to the private sector. This effect is likely one of the key, although unstated, reasons for the push to return Te Tiriti to its erstwhile status as a simple nullity.”

       I suggest this is the message we should be hammering home in Oppositional arguments to the bill. As part of the messaging, we should make clear the ties that Seymour and his backers have to corporate interests, both domestic and international and their plans to appropriate and exploit natural and public resources for private enrichment.
       …
       This bill is about the people (tangata whenua and tangata tiriti) vs corporate profits.

       Reply
       • Kay 3.1.1.1

         3 December 2024 at 9:42 am

         Although such suspicions may play into Seymour's hands – he'll be two weeks away from becoming our deputy PM

         Oh, for Winston throw a hissy fit and refuse to give up the role, threatening to walk away from the CoC if he doesn't retain it…

         Reply
         • thinker 3.1.1.1.1

           3 December 2024 at 10:53 am

           Normally, you would think it would be better to be Deputy PM going into the 2026 election campaign, but Seymour gets that slot.

           So, how does Peters get heard, when the other two have the job titles? He'll have to shout down the others ability to govern, to promote himself as the natural alternative to ACT.

           That wasn't such an issue when the 3 parties were in opposition, not so helpful when you're Luxon and trying to show what a good leader you are. "I'm they're leader, which way did they go?"

           Reply
   • Bearded Git 3.2

     3 December 2024 at 9:54 am

     Nat 34 ACT 8 NZF 6 Total 48%

     Lab 31Gre 13 TPM 6 Total 50%

     The poll is good news for the Left-it would leave them in power; there would not be a "hung parliament".

     This is because the commentary is wrong where it says:

     "Assuming all seats won on election night are held, and using the Electoral Commission's seat calculator, these results would deliver an overhang in Parliament with both Te Pāti Māori and National winning more electorate seats than their party vote entitlement."

     In terms of the Nats, under this poll there they would inevitably lose a few electorate seats, so there will be no overhang.

     In terms of TPM, they would win 7 seats with 6%. They will probably win all 7 Maori seats so again there is no overhang.

     Reply
   • observer 3.3

     3 December 2024 at 11:15 am

     The best thing about the polls is that Luxon has to face the media and talk about them. That's quite entertaining (bluster, bluster, bluster …).

     His go-to defence for low ratings before he became PM was "well, people are still getting to know me".

     They've got to know you now. How's that working out for you, Chris?

     Reply
4. Dennis Frank 4

   3 December 2024 at 8:56 am

   Shimmering in the air in front of us is a well-hung social construct:

   A grinding recession and racial tensions have ended National’s honeymoon with voters, who would deliver a hung Parliament if an election was held today, a new poll shows. The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll shows National slipping four points since the October 2023 election.

   Field work was done last week, in the aftermath of a 45,000-strong hīkoi outside Parliament against a controversial bill seeking to reinterpret the Treaty of Waitangi, and data that showed the economy continues to soften as unemployment bites. Freshwater Strategy director and pollster Mike Turner – who has polled for Boris Johnson, Scott Morrison, Jeremy Corbyn, Liz Truss and The Australian Financial Review – said: “These shifts are in line with other contemporary polls and indicates the National honeymoon period with voters is well and truly over. Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,150 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 26-27 November 2024. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters. https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360507840/new-poll-delivers-hung-parliament-bad-news-christopher-luxon-preferred-pm

   So the stats are up to the political poll standard, and the simulation of an electoral outcome is authoritative on that basis. Parliament seems well-hung, but only in prospect. In systems theory, such a mirage is known as "the adjacent possible" and Google's AI Overview makes it concise:

   The adjacent possible is a theory that describes the range of possibilities that exist at any given moment in time:

   The gizmo helpfully illuminates a tetrad of interdisciplinary dimensions; biology, innovation, creativity, technology. As a mental algorithm in mass psychology, it presents us with a set of likelihoods, which our imagining turns into scenarios. So the social construct the media present here is a hypothetical derived from stats as the most likely future path from where we are in reality. Such mass hallucinations are influential.

   Reply
5. tWig 5

   3 December 2024 at 11:44 am

   Maritime accident experts question Manawanui 'human error' finding

   Stuff: 'A UK captain and maritime accident investigator said "mistakes made in the moment were almost certainly not the sole cause of the sinking. Human error was not “causative” – and instead, it pointed to wider systemic issues that likely resulted in the sinking." '

   Once a staff H&S rep, I know from best practice and from experience that blame culture does nothing to improve H&S attitudes and behaviour. In fact, such culture drives people to hide errors and skimp on reporting any issues.

   'Aussie maritime safety consultant and captain Ravi Nijjer said…“mode awareness” problems had been a feature of maritime disasters for decades, and were the result of a poor understanding of “human factors” in accidents…"You can't just blame the human error. In today's world, it's not really acceptable…You put different people in the same situation, they'll make the same error,”.

   Instead of a court martial process, Nijjer said the navy needed to take the approach seen in the aviation industry, where a focus on the limitations of humans, particularly the fallibility of memory, had meant the development of training and systems to remove the risk of known errors.'

   To be fair, this is only the first part of the inquiry, looking at individual responsibilities within the framework of Navy expectations. There is a pt2 to come that will look at Navy organisational systems (which should include autopilot systems installation and training).

   So Pt1 of the inquiry can only be seen in relation to Pt2. Then we hopefully will see the full picture, with senior NDF people under scrutiny for their decisions.

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