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6:00 am, April 8th, 2011 - 115 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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From the pen of Brian Rudman
Another prominent mainstream columnist attacks the decision won, by the police from the courts, for those they arrested in the “Terror Raids” to be tried without a jury.
Strongly criticising this decision, Rudman makes a case that a jury trial is a strong part of our democratic system.
Urewera decision fans the flame
As well as condemning this decision as an attack on democracy, like previous Herald commentator Fran O’Sullivan, Rudman, also harshly condemns the secrecy surrounding the decision.
“The justice system, by compounding the atmosphere of secrecy and intrigue that has dogged this case for nearly four years, has now made a rod for its own back. Whatever the reality, the courts now risk being seen as part of this whole sorry saga.”
In making his case that jury trials are part of the democratic system, Rudman’s inference is that – for the judiciary and the police to dispense with a jury trial, – is for these institutions, to attack our democracy.
“the lamp that shows that freedom lives” and “the bulwark of liberty.”
What it says Jenny is that in NZ too much power is concentrated in too few hands.
Recall the most major judicial consitutional change in recent decades, the dumping of the Privy Council in favour of a NZ Supreme Court was carried out by Clark in an executive fashion on only a tiny tiny Parliamentary majority.
And that stunk even more. Still does. Quite the shameful thing that was…. too much power in too few hands. The problem.
Dumping the Privy Council is in no way the same as dropping jury trials as the functions of the Privy Council is still maintained through the Supreme Court. Dropping jury trials drops the functions as well and the functions of the jury is holding the justice system to account.
Understood, but my point was about the concentration of power in NZ’s democracy. It is too highly concentrated and Clark’s Privy Council dumping is one of the biggest and worst examples. It should not have been attended to in that way. She abused the power that was concentrated in her hands.
It was the same power that all governments in NZ have and was democratic as far as our systems go – NACT could now drop the Supreme Court and put the Privy Council back.
And, to be honest, I’ve never understood why people were so upset about dumping the Privy Council and replacing it with the Supreme Court. Going to England to get our legal wrangles seen to was past it’s use by date.
‘
BBC news: Jury system in the dock.
Bryce Edwards has suggested a return to the old left/right divide, and it looks like Labour is trying to frame their campaign around that approach. How smart a strategy is it? Is the divide anything like it was last century? There are some staunch supporters both left and right, but I suspect the middle is far more prominent now, something like this:
The bulge in the middle political spectrum.
Can trying to portray the campaign this year as a battle between the workers and the rich pricks try and drag enough from the centre to take ideological sides? Or has the country outgrown that with too much mix and overlap?
(RobC, I think these are interesting questions worth pondering, I’m not trying to fudgily make a point)
might just come down to how much the voter has become more selfless or selflish in his/her approach to the world – traditional left/right ne ce pas.
LOL OK I’ll play nice
I haven’t seen anything from Labour to suggest what their campaign will be, not that I would expect to at this point in time. The campaign is only going to be 4 weeks thanks to RWC.
I don’t quite view it as such. I think the point is an election for the first time in at least a decade, closer to 2, will be fought under dark economic clouds and thus the economy will (or should) be the dominant issue.
I’d also suggest the middle appears to be bulging because the economic pinch is being felt by more and more people.
I hope the election is not fought along class-lines – that is destructive; I hope it’s fought by looking forward and what the plans and fixes are. Wait and see I guess.
The middle ground is as much a delusion as hard right-wing – reality has a radical left bias.
Maybe that’s how you see reality, but you’re not everyone, and arguably you’re not very realistic.
There’s only one way to see reality and that’s by taking account of what’s actually there and happening – anything else is delusion.
Yes. And the reality is class war being waged by the rich against the rest of us – whether the liberal middle class want to acknowledge it or not.
You are right that the rich are waging class war against the rest of us. Marx saw this as a continuum, that the very nature of relations to production dictated this. Whatever else Marx got wrong I cant fault him on this. Maybe the difference is that the rich are now engaged in an accelerated grab for more based upon there being known limits to what there is to grab. They have sold the liberal middle classes (who in reality are merely proleterians behind PC screens) the idea of limitless growth and the ability to aspire. How sad are these creatures?
You don’t seem to understand rampant capitalism/consumerism. Coke and Pepsi aren’t joined in a conspiracy to make all of the poor die of sugar poisoning. They are competing with each other to make the biggest profits. There’s just a bit of collateral damage, but the market (population) is still growing so it doesn’t really matter.
It’s closer to “some of them” versus “some of them” rather than them versus you. You are just a potential sucker in their battles. But you have choice whether to buy their poison or not.
PeteG, agree there is no conspiracy, that would indicate covert activity. Its out in the open, it is as I point out above one of the things the great heretic Marx noted about the nature of the beast: go read his work on relation to production and you might get the picture.
Adam Smith disagrees with you and so do I. You will probably find that the CEOs of Pepsi and Coke are good friends and that the companies support the same lobbyist groups/think tanks.
Go read the two links I gave you yesterday for even more info.
So says Schrodinger’s cat.
HS ad PG, some reality…Brent Crude overnight US$122.81.
Yep, compounding tough financial times.
I agree RobC, the economy. Who voters think can deal best with an already struggling economy that is continuing to be hit. At the moment National seem to be barely managing to deal with each successive economy bomb, and all Labour seem able to manage is negative. The official campaign may not start until November, but the jostling has already begun.
The jostling started months ago. A few campaign billboards started going up for months ago.
The 3 month campaign period is a outright mockery of reality….
I have a suspicion that the electorate will be wondering who will lead them back to the happy motoring to strip mall consumer utopia. Both major parties will foster this delusory goal, which means that failure to deliver is gauranteed. Unfortunately, due to the experiential psyche and expectations of the electorate “bad” news, such as managed contraction are not electable (at least not until such time as the reality of our energy and resource position is blindingly obvious to everybody).
It’s true there is a large group of workers who have been convinced that they’re “in the middle” economically and socially.
Tradespeople have been convinced that they’re really businesspeople and now identify with the concerns of “business” even though most are still just selling their labour to make a living.
Most people objectively still earn shit wages in this country by any measure. More and more of our wealth is concentrated in fewer hands every year.
The left/right divide – or more accurately the capital/labour divide – hasn’t gone anywhere, but too many people on the “labour” side of it are pretending they’re on the “capital” side.
Absolutely felix, and many of them have been viciously sucker punched.
I saw an item about Karl Marx who figured out that you can control a slave much better by convincing him he is an employee. Never a truer phrase IMHO.
[lprent: fixed the quote. ]
Thanks Lynn
A strange claim – some tradespeople are employees, some are sole traders, some are employers. Those who run as a business don’t just sell their labour, they need capital to cover things like vehicles, tools, materials and stock, and to cover cashflow fluctuations. Some of them employ and have to deal with running payrolls. They have to deal with GST, and annual tax returns. It’s very different than banking a weekly wage, there is a lot of extra work involved. It’s possible to make a lot more money but it’s much riskier.
I’m sure that tradespeople, whether sole, employ or are employed, make up their own minds about how they vote and don’t accept some pigeon hole someone else tries to assign to them.
Yep. Agree.
I’ve always seen ‘right versus left’ as largely about ‘those with substantial power’ versus ‘those without any significant power’. That divide isn’t going to be magicked away anytime soon.
Different vehicles have been used over the ages to accumulate and protect the means of accruing, projecting and securing power – today it’s generally a kind of crony capitalism, which often extends its reach into the political arena (which remains largely a front for the exercise of these power games – often just between different branches of ‘power’ rather than between those largely with and those largely without power).
It’s funny, but I’ve often heard it argued by some on the right (ideologically on the right rather than in terms of actual power) that it’s ok that wealth concentrates because everyone can try to become wealthy (with enough hard work, etc.).
For me, that’s always begged the question of the rightness of having power (i.e., wealth) concentrated at all. Frankly, even if concentrated power regularly circulated throughout the population I still wouldn’t support a system that concentrated it. Concentrated power – whoever wields it and no matter how briefly they wield it – is a weapon to inflict suffering on others in pursuit of advantage.
One of the usual means to repulse the occasional threat voiced from ‘below’ to dissipate concentrated power in a structural way, is some discursive efforts to divide and conquer. E.g., ‘Don’t let YOUR taxes get spent on THOSE wasters.’ Or, more directedly, ‘You’re a hard working self-employed, sole trader who needs the government off their back; not like those dumb factory types who couldn’t help themselves if their lives depended on it and so they always look to the unions and Labour to spoon feed them – support me in undermining unions and then they’ll have to get off their backsides!’
It’s sad, divisive stuff but it seems to appeal to a good proportion of the population – most of whom are on the ‘labour’ side of the divide, as you say.
In a kind of way, this reminds me of a public lecture, Hollywood Left and Right: how movie stars changed American politics (Steven J. Ross) I went to this week: ie the righties seem more obssessed with getting political power.
Ross claimed that the main differnce between political activities of left and right wing (in US terms) stars is this: the Republicans like Ronald Regan, aim for political power; the democrats/lefties, like Harry Belafonte & Jane Fonda (probably George Clooney too), aim to campaign and raise awareness on issues.
Another interesting point I got from the lecture, related to the need for a background in political activities before going for political office: Ross presented about 6 categories of political stars: eg image, as with Charlton Heston, who developed a certain kind of image in his films that he carried over into his political activities. Arnold swartzenegger was categorised as a celebrity politician: he did mostly celebrity type public appearances, like appearing on Opra, Leno etc, and not doing the conventional serious political interviews/appearances. But Arnie didn’t do the hard political yards before going for office, unlike Regan who built up a knowledge & expertise in the politics over decades. Consequently, Arnie’s political life was short, based on this superficial celebrity thing. He wasn’t up to the political job. Remind you of anyone?
Is that why everyone here and in Labour circles are so relaxed about Goff’s lack of traction and the possible outcomes in November?
Ah, more misdirection and distraction from a RWNJ. No one here is relaxed about the upcoming election and several have criticised Goff’s leadership.
I’m most definitely concerned about Goff’s lack of traction in the election arena. This concern however is trumped by my disgust at Key’s cynical manipulation of the populace with his obfuscation and obtuseness – I don’t think Mensa will be looking to add him to their circle any time soon. It’s no crime to not know everything but for the stuff you do need to know at least make an effort to be informed. Key doesn’t strike me as someone who could be bothered with doing some in-depth reading on important topics, but rather would prefer to have the juicy bits presented to him in bullet point form along with some distracting slogans thrown in for good measure.
Key like a lot of “middlers” always waits to see which way the wind’s blowing before he commits and the commmital is to what he perceives will benefit him most in the popularity stakes from Joe Public or will fatten the coffers of his mates. Goff may indeed be gauche but he seems a lot more authentic than Key.
With the demise of public service television, The Beatson interviews on Stratos (freeview) are well worth watching. They are low key, face-to-face, serious and informative interviews. Lately it’s been with politicians, and this morning I’m watching the interview with Len Brown. Brown is talking about having a vision of in integrated transport – this means integrating roads and public transport. He claims to have a good relationship with the NZ government on this.
He also claims that he will fulfill his election promise on keeping rates reasonable (he set a fairly specific percentage target), thinks Auckland business is on the cusp of being really good (a boom kind of thing), and is aiming for the city to be a green leader in the Pacific. He generally aims to sound like he works well with Key’s government, and refuses to be critical of Hydeney. And he’s talking about growth, green tourism, the screen industry in the west of Auckland, innovation, growth around Auckland CBD/AUT. He wants to take the politics out of Auckland’s growth & development, with cross party support.
Auckland’s housing crisis: 25, 000 people arrived from Christchurch recently. Major build job needed. Affordability eg Transformation Project – Tamaki & GI (Geln Innes) communities – he is aiming for afforable home ownership, housing for elderly, affordable rents, working with NGOs that deal with people with housing/income problems.
Wants to maintain rural, food-producing land around Auckland. However, in some semi-rural provincial hubs there’s room for some controlled, minimal development: green-field sites. Plus more compact high rise city, faster transport etc.
Asset-base: he has pledged not to sell airport shares or privatise water-ways. Some property is available for strategic sales. But ended by saying, however, that New Zealanders are extremely averse to selling the family silver.
So it seems to me, while Brown subscribes to some Green and left principles of an inclusive and supportive society, without great wealth gaps, he also seems to be following the old neoliberal policy of growth, albeit tempered by some focus on sustainability.
Brothers and sisters welcome to the latest episode of Crony Capitalism.
It seems that the Government was warned by officials against allowing Mediaworks time to pay their broadcasting licences. But a personal approach by Brent Impey to his old mate Stephen Joyce persuaded the government to do otherwise.
Joyce has made much of the fact that the effective interest rate for the “loan” is over 11% but it appears the “loan” is unsecured. If Mediaworks fail the Government may lose millions.
And for the next thrilling episode of Crony Capitalism tune in next week where no doubt the Government will bend over backwards to help out another corporate mate in preference to helping out the many ordinary Kiwis who are finding things really tough right now.
This is what happens when the country allows these economically incompetent nincompoops run the country.
VTBO!
Which would raise the question of why corporates and a few rich individuals spend millions every year lobbying the government.
Tui?
Related:
TVNZ7 to close as govt confirms no more funding
Govt lends MediaWorks $43m against advice (2:04)
direct from the tvnz website – unintended maybe
public spending bad, private loan good?
Never mind the opposition movement will hold them to account.
http://psa.org.nz/nicetohave.asp
Cryptome has more images of the Fukishima Daiichi nuclear plant.
I have been hearing all day on the BBC about the 7.1 “aftershock” – and just heard on 3 News that two people have died, 100s are injured and that the aftershock has caused more damage to the nuclear plant.
Spy lets you listen in on social media.
From Future West (the progressive ticket for Auckland Council):
And maybe also increased provision for taking bicycles on public transport.
Two way light rail straight down the middle of the present motorway from whenuapai to Britomart (tunnelled for the city part of course). Tunnel under the Te Atatu, Lincoln and Royal Rd over-passes for subway stations.
Talking about Britomart:
Ironic that a train station is being used as the back drop in a car commercial.
Carol, upheaval is right – it’s going to be a frightening decade especially for parents of young children.
Don’t know if you’ve seen the doco ‘The Power of Community”:
and this scary rations list for Cubans during the Special Period:
http://www.newint.org/features/1998/05/05/slim/
I have nothing but total respect for Cubans and how they clubbed together – I don’t know that western nations will respond in any manner approaching the fortitude shown by these wonderful people.
From the land of the free.
We asked voters on this poll whether they think interracial marriage should be legal or illegal- 46% of Mississippi Republicans said it should be illegal to just 40% who think it should be legal.
Division and conquest still alive and well I see.
In 20 years, the US is going to be a very different place. Probably it will result in more and more pockets and enclaves of white people versus “the rest”, which may make the racial situation worse.
“Whites are on the verge of becoming a minority of newborn babies in the United States.
Official census figures show that non-white births, including Hispanics, constituted 48 per cent of children born in America between July 2008 and 2009, up from 46 per cent two years before.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1285856/White-newborn-babies-set-minority-U-S-year.html
captcha: consist
American Support for Free Market
Well, it seems even the USians are starting to wake up to reality.
Thanks for the link. Yep, but they’re definitely only “starting” to wake up. I may be misreading the survey results, but seems the total percentage of Americans who trust the free market system has still only dropped from 80% to 74% between 2002 and 2011. Those tent cities are going to have get a bit bigger yet.
Interesting column by Shoeshine in this weeks nbr for them what can steal a glance at it.
All about the what did he know and why did he do it surrounding Blinglish, treasury and SCF.
Something I didn’t know:
Feb 2010 Treas approves a transaction where Southbury handed its two good assets (Sales Corp and NZ Heliciopters) to SCF.
Southbury thus has fuck all assets left with which to service its already existing loans from SCF ($77Mill worth)
SCF, OTOH gets to book $152.5 mill in new equity. treas has disclosed that this deal, which they approved for some reason (as did the trustee), was of zero benefit to SCF.
But lo and behold, the ‘new equity’ meant SCF could maintain it’s credit rating with S&P.
Which meant, taddaaaa… SCF could join the extended retail deposit guarantee scheme on April 1st.
Serendipitous eh what?
Bloody good that such questions are being asked left right and centre, so to speak. They need asking and asking and asking. The smell has always been there over SCF and the guarantee. If it is as everyone suspects then the government should be struck out by the Governor-General.
Corruption and fraud of the absolute highest order.
edit: and further, how the fuck does SCF retain any sort of credit rating in 2010 when John Key says he knew in November 2008 that it was going to go bust. Answer Key, answer.
Yeah. Nbr also sez that billy boy is being a bit shy about some of the paper work and that the ombudsman is having a wee think about whether or not it needs to tell him off and make him talk to the class about what he has done. they also hint that most of the dodgy stuff, if it exists, will will be pr and comms related, so we may not get to see it.
I see jami lee jimbob got up in the house and mouthed off like a tea party klingon yesterday.
well keys ‘turn’ will be over in November and we will really see if this national party has any principles then or just a rabble hanging on keys coat tails.
and dont forget that a ‘turn’ is money making cant for getting a commision off every transaction.
His turn will be over? Who is going to replace him? Fill Gap the Goof? Hilarious, thanks for the laff!
In which Simon Jenkins notes that Nick Clegg, all things considered, is being a bit of a fucking sook.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/apr/07/nick-clegg-arm-candy-punchbag
I read part of Clegg’s interview – it was so woe-filled I couldn’t finish it. Simon Jenkins has done an excellent job here
Following up PBs post yesterday about Mr Ryan’s budget chicanery and it seems Ryan is a Randite who requires his staff to read ‘the book’ .
And he continues the war on the poor by getting two thirds of his budget savings from cuts to programmes for low income citizens.
$2.17 trillion in reductions from Medicaid and related health care.
$350 billion in cuts in mandatory programs serving low-income Americans (other than Medicaid).
$400 billion in cuts in low-income discretionary programs.
Read it and weep.
.The Idaho bill’s House sponsor, state Rep. Brent Crane, R-Nampa, told legislators that the “hand of the Almighty” was at work. “His ways are higher than our ways,” Crane said. “He has the ability to take difficult, tragic, horrific circumstances and then turn them into wonderful examples.”
Rodney “perk busted” Hide has upset North Shore’s elderly. To quote:
Rodney I think you are stuffed in November. I really hope so …
So Mickey, are you bringing that to light because you are scared your free busrides will be taken away?
I do not qualify for a gold card Sean and will not do so for quite a while.
I was particularly struck by the hypocricy of Hide and the response of many who were willing to say it the way they saw it. And the fact it came from the North Shore where Act should do reasonably well.
I also think the Gold card was/is a good idea. It gives elderly the chance to get out and enjoy life. It is really cheap and a Government would be a fool to change it.
” And the fact it came from the North Shore where Act should do reasonably well.”
Why’s that ?
It’s just mean. When I travel on the trains in off-peak times, there are many odler people on the trains. Usually there’s still seats available for others. Also, there’s probably some older people who would otherwise be at home twiddling their thumbs and starting to feel low because they can’t get out places. The gold card probably helps with the mental and physical well being of the elderly, resulting in savings in other areas of public service budgets.
It’s funny (no, it really is) that even though I don’t qualify yet, bus drivers keep assuming I do, and either offering me a free fare without even asking to see my card, or asking me to produce it.
(It’s also terribly depressing! 😀 )
However, yes, the Gold card is a great idea! Not all olds are well off so they need such help…
I half agree – I think Rodney and Act may be stuffed in November, but I think that’s a shame, we need diversity in parliament, and a strong Act is as important as a strong Green party. The problem is the current one is a hard Act to follow.
You mean we need mysogonists, climate change deniers and the stealers of babies’ identities also represented in Parliament?
If that’s what the people want.
I wouldn’t encourage those myself, neither would I support too many deniers of free enterprise and stealers of too much tax, but we need to let a broad range of voters choose a broad range of MPs.
Do you prefer the single party state sort of thing?
Glad to see you have come around since yesterday’s marathon ‘why doesn’t the opposition just shut up and agree with the government more and stop making such a fuss’ session.
Once again a total misrepresentation of what I’ve said. I’d rather see them more actively contribute to government rather than concentrating on spoiling and grizzling. That’s quite different, but you may be to fixated on supporting the status quo that you don’t recognise it.
Not much of a misrepresentation at all actually.
I asked you time and time again what you meant and it always came down to the opposition just agreeing to be sensible and to stop opposing for trivial reasons and just let the government govern.
Empty pissing in the wind that, if it means anything at all, means that an opposition should stop making such a fuss and agree with the government more.
You explicitly said, in fact, that parliament should be more like a party caucus.
If that isn’t advocating a one party state, what is it advocating?
If it isn’t advocating that opposition parties set aside their differences with the government for the sake of parliamentary unity, then what is it advocating?
So in the hope that you might care to flesh out whatever it is you are trying to say:
What does this:
I’d rather see them more actively contribute to government rather than concentrating on spoiling and grizzling.
mean in practice?
How can the opposition contribute more to government? Should they do things they don’t agree with? Perhaps the government should ignore their own mandate and accept opposition ideas that they don’t agree with. With that be better, or worse? Why?
You still don’t seem to have addressed my point that the problem you fixate on stems directly from the fact that people don’t agree with each other about what the best thing to do actually is.
They really truly don’t agree, and that’s ok, but it means there is a conflict. Which gets resolved through politics.
If the politics upset you, then the solution is to either have a one party state, (abolishing the politics), or to somehow get everyone to agree with each other about everything. Which seems like a tall order at first glance. But as I noted yesterday, there is an awful lot of stuff that gets done with cross party support. This happens where there is a consensus about what to do. So what we have, is actually what you want, but you are too fixated on how distasteful you find the areas of conflict that you don’t recognise it. The areas of consensus were once areas of dispute. Disputes that got resolved, quite possibly temporarily, through political conflict.
Shorter version:
It’s a feature, not a bug.
Brilliantly said! Like a clinical dissection.
That’s what frequently happens within a caucus, it’s hardly a revolutionary idea. It will be rare that everyone agrees on everything, democracies work on majority decisions.
The opposition parties already do contribute, via select committees, and joint policies (like S59 and the AMI support measure, both almost unanimous). Much of the ideological huffing and puffing in public is just a farcical charade – but that’s what the public mostly sees.
Why are politicians regarded so poorly by the public? It’s how they appear, they’re often arrogant, and often pathetic negative nit pickers.
Shorter version – the antagonistic negative approach is a feature of politics that bugs a lot of voters a hell of a lot.
So you think they should put aside their differences with the government for the sake of parliamentary unity?
Treating parliamnet like a caucus is a revolutionary idea. Moving the deliberations behind closed doors and having parliamentarians commit to no public squabbling once a decision has been reached? This essentially abolishes parliament as we know it.
How is this not a one party state type of system?
You claim that the conflict bugs a lot of the voters, and yet they keep voting for it. I suspect that a lot of voters are bugged by the fact that many people disagree with them about what should be done.
But there is very little support for putting aside the differences for the sake of parliamentary unity.
If there was such support, Dunne would be PM. But he’s not. He’s a laughing stock.
We may need diversity in parliament but certainly not the insanity of Act.
Inside Glenn Becks head.
Friday fun:
Before clicking on the poll, guess the numbers …
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4862606/Political-briefs-Friday-April-8
Surprised?
OMG!
NZ First still in second place, while John Key soils his underwear.
Will Labour and the Greens back Winston for PM? 🙂
WHy is Labour blue and National red?
WHy is Labour blue…
Sad, due to an inability to get any traction?
…and National red?
Embarassed, due to a lack of substance?
Glorious pics.
http://triggerpit.com/2011/03/10/spacewalks-blue-sky-32-pics/
They are indeed.
Saw these today too:
http://www.howtobearetronaut.com/2011/03/stanley-kubricks-chicago-1949/
Shots from a Kubrick photojournalist assignment on Chicago.
Some livejournal favourites.
http://proidysvit.livejournal.com/
http://community.livejournal.com/vintagephoto/
http://community.livejournal.com/adski_kafeteri/?skip=10
Meanwhile, a “proper” poll demonstrates (as usual) that what excites a tiny handful of politico-pundits … is ignored by real voters:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4653/
Poll taken during salacious saturation coverage of Darren Hughes story. Media turned on. Public switched off.
We (Labour) lost 1% but the nats lost 1.5%. Interesting …
Margin of error?
Winston on the comeback
The government confidence is the only change not in the margin of error. It’s down 8.5 points. That trend has been slow but steady in a downwards direction and won’t be changing soonish.
National should be worried on that score alone. None of their possible partners is polling enough and if National sheds votes, as it is likely to do during the campaign (see pre-2008), then it is unlikely to shed them to its possible partners (a resurgent ACT?). At the moment, those partners (ACT, UF, MP) are not polling well.
Given that they will be looking to get a parliamentary majority that will provide enough stability not to crack under the pressure of the measures they clearly want to introduce in the second term, their strategic options are very few:
1. Chance it all on getting over 50% themselves. Pretty risky on present polling.
2. Take out NZF again – by hook or by crook – and hope the votes they would have lost to NZF either stay or go somewhere ‘benign’ (UF? ACT?? – I don’t think so. They’ll either stay or way or vote Labour, maybe Greens).
3. Key reneges on the promise not to go with NZF, ‘for the sake of the country that so clearly showed that National is the most popular party, blah, blah, blah’
4. Key ‘bows out’ post-election and some new leader goes with NZF ‘for the sake of the country that so clearly showed that National is the most popular party, blah, blah, blah’.
3 and 4 have the advantage of sticking it to MMP in the process – but too late to affect the vote unless the options are flown as kites/warnings during the campaign.
Then again, the ‘Opposition parties’ have their own conundrums – any ‘coalition’ they can put together to get a parliamentary majority – if National can’t stitch it together – would, itself, be pretty small and unstable on these sorts of numbers. The only way to make that more stable is for a lot more voters who currently say they would vote National to switch and vote Labour, Greens or NZF.
Now, which of the ‘Opposition parties’ would they be most likely to jump to? The Greens have been positioning themselves as more ‘centrist’. Labour has been ambivalent about going more ‘working class’ and also going centrist – which is a hard sell. NZF goes populist/working class conservative.
I have some choice things I want to say in relation to this but they are not printable and I will bide my time 👿
Yeah CV, I can’t work out where Labour is going. I was looking at the Greens but then read they’re putting together a policy position where they could support National after the election???? Tell me it is’t so – what is a person to do when they really, really don’t want this government to continue? Where is a viable alternative if even the Greens are willing to prop-up a government so clearly outside of their values?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4847046/Green-paper-canvasses-softer-stance-on-National
The Greens are being smart – they can achieve more when they are in power than supporting something that is going down in a screaming gay (pardon the pun) heap out of principle.
“they can achieve more when they are in power” Yeah, that’s what the Maori Party thought too. That turned in to a principled stance, not.
It seems that the Greens are determined to lose their voters 🙁
I’d be very surprised if Key reneged on no coalition with NZF. I also doubt the electorate will let National go it alone, there is a tendency to limit power.
Seven months is a long time in politics.
Considering that he rarely tells the truth and his promises aren’t worth the paper they’re written on what makes you say that?
Personally DTB I think that it is awesome that PeteG has maintained his lovely innocence even after getting involved in politics.
Good stuff as always there marsh-wiggle.
“The bright side of it is… that if we break our necks getting down the cliff, then we’re safe from being drowned in the river.”
On the rather pretentiously titled “New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating” it pays to look at the question. It’s not only not really about the government, it’s biased towards a positive answer.
“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Or as my dear old grandma would have it;
All right mate? or fucked, actually?
Marsh-wiggle it is.
I was reading ‘The Silver Chair’ to my five year old daughter when I made my first comment on The Standard. (Notice PG’s pivotal act that broke the enchantment of the queen/serpent – and his motivation. I liked the cut of his jib, so to speak.)
Good point about the wording – the difference between “heading in the right direction” and “seriously heading in the wrong direction” let’s the fence-sitters continue to support the ‘direction’ happening at the moment.
Fucking (and I very rarely use the word, never mind italicised) very seriously good point Pascal.
Along with the recent results of the usual on-line polls (normally heavily weighted rightward due to readershop demographics etc) and my own experience of a recent phone poll, indicates a heavy rightward bias on standard polls – nevermind prevalence of cellys, average 70% refusal rate etc, consider;
The “poll-effect” is impossible to measure, but
Righties revel in and dominate poll-taking
From which, and commonsense, we may extrapolate that probably,
Poll results influence polls.
Which influence votes.
Heavily.
Anyone can conduct and publish a poll.
I’ll contribute to any soc. graduate with a phone and time
And invite The Standard to publish the results
Prepare for the SM Onslaught
An articulate article by Dr Jon Johansson about the way the MSM is already leaning in favour of SM and the BS that will be spun by it’s proponents.
Just saw an item on 3 News about the increase in the incidence of rheumatic fever. I just want to say, however, that I hope viewers are not misled, as some were by the coverage of meningococcal disease * some years back.
The coverage and a Shortland Street sub-plot aside, people of all races can get rheumatic fever. My aunt died young in England of heart disease caused by it, and when I was hit by a car when I was 11, I was in a ward with a Pakeha girl who was suffering all the sequelae … including severe valve damage to her heart. White parents and Indians, get your kids’ sore throats checked as well!
* there was at least one case of a white mother who nearly lost her daughter because TV coverage had convinced her that only Maori got meningococcal disease.
Saw that item too but one of the things that concerns me these days is that many doctors are so anti antibiotics that they could be placing patients at risk.
At my daughter’s school a couple of years ago scarlet fever was going around and I thought she had the symptons according to the flyer that came home so took her to the doctor. I thought the examination was cursory to say the least and antibiotics were only prescribed because the doctor said “well she hasn’t had any in over a year” and with me persisting and hauling out the flyer from the school. I will not see this doctor again and thank heavens we now have an excellent GP who started in January.
Not being a fan of antibiotics as they make me feel drunk there is a definite place for them particularly where they can save a child a lifetime of misery or heart damage. Even better would be that all kids could go to the doctor free up to the age of twelve years so that parents wouldn’t hesitate to get potentially serious problems investigated and treated.
Many NZ doctors still do not expect 3rd world diseases or diseases from the 1930’s and 1940’s to occur in 21st century NZ.
So IT’S not that they have bad judgement, often they simply start off with a “low index of suspicion” which means that they can figure out what is happening a bit late and then they think to themselves “oh shit, maybe its xyz which I had ruled out earlier as a possibility”
CV, they need to get rid of the low index of suspicion as they could render some poor beggar dead and if they think that third world diseases cannot occur I have to ask where have they been the last twenty years? OK, I have to give some wiggle room to those recently graduated but the scary thing for me is, have these people never picked up a history book about general history and medical history in particular? I find the lack of curiosity in many people astounding as I believe it’s curiosity that makes a person intelligent.
Most people cannot be good at eveything but if it’s your field then yes I think you should bone up on things. Sometimes I catch an episode of House and enjoy the exhaustive efforts the characters put into diagnosing a patient’s malady but this is tempered with the realisiation that the treatment is funded from a bloated insurance system.
Also for many people the cost of going to the doctor once is painful enough and if the problem hasn’t been dealt with then they may not return until some irreversible damage has occurred because of the cost. It would be cold comfort to a patient to hear a doctor admit (haha) that they didn’t get it right in the first place and one could understand a patient holding the doctor in comtempt.
Yeah House is pretty damn good.
But what me and some friends figured out years ago is that the brilliant creativity and logic that House embodies as a practitioner is what most medical doctors dream of being. But are not.
I agree Deb.
I see this as another side of discrimination – however much improving population health outcomes for all means doubling effort to reach Maori and Pacific peoples, this is only because M&P are over-represented in deprived areas. It turns into a sort of shorthand of ‘Maori and Pacific need to take action, be provided with information’, or whatever, when clearly rheumatic fever and meningitis are diseases associated with poverty and over-crowding. Irrespective of ethnicity. This outlook stigmatises Maori and Pacific (thereby increasing racism) and ignores other deprived groups (causing resentment).
No-one seems to want to say poor people, who are living with more than x number of kids in a small area need to be vigilant because these diseases can spread easily – and if you think this is a problem in your household your trip to the doctor is free, whatever time or day of the week.
Much easier to stigmatise some groups that admit to widespread poverty. It’s harder to ‘blame’ poverty and poor health on the system if you can isolate groups by ethnicity, religion etc, etc.
You’re right, Rosy… it’s true that these diseases are much more likely in conditions of over-crowding and poverty. I am so thankful that my sons have now grown up and are no longer at school, because all through their school days, I was completely paranoid about meningococcal disease. Doctors need to stay alert, and not have pre-conceptions, however. The first victim of meningococcal disease that I knew (I was a friend of his uncle) was a white student in his late teens, who had the bad luck to share a drink with a carrier. Kids swap drinks, and it’s very difficult to convince a 9 year old that merely being friendly could be highly dangerous!
In about 2004, I read the very sad story of an Indian woman in her 20s, who had meningococcal disease. Her sister took to a private A&E clinic, where the duty doctor evidently thought ‘well dressed non-Polynesian adult” and sent her home with painkillers. She was dead the next day!
People who are not poor can be unlucky, and they depend on doctors not being stuck on stereotypes. I get very hot about misdiagnoses. My mother suffered through decades of tranquilisers for ‘housewives’ neurosis’ – which is what the doctor actually said to her (!) when she actually had polymyositis (related to MS). Granted it was incurable then, but had the doctor not been such a plonker faced with a woman in her 40s bringing up 4 kids, she wouldn’t have spent so long feeling that she was a malingerer!
Deb
Fuck John Key.
SCF depositors? No problem, here’s $1.2 billion
AMI? De nada, have a $500+ million credit facility
IHC disability care workers, 78% female, low-paid and been through three court cases? Sorry, no money, get fucked.
The shear hypocrisy is astounding. Not in that John Key and National are hypocrites, that’s to be expected, but the fact that they’re being so damned open about it: The country has got no money, oops, better prop another of our mates crumbling businesses with taxpayer dollars.
Labour and the Greens are in on that one too (AMI), are they also propping up their mates? Of course they are, 80,000 policy holders in Christchurch.
Maybe AMI should be nationalised? Whatever did happen to Government Life? Oh, that’s right – ‘Tower’, which now wants to buy AMI.
Doesn’t mean that I agree with it though does it?
Not my point. The difference is Labour have already stated they would honour the decisions of three courts, decisions made in the context of current legislation. National on the other hand continue to refute the legitimacy of those decisions while at the same time chucking money at “unfortunate” depositors and policyholders.