The numbers suggest that Trump's support is pretty firm around the 42-45% mark. Good news is that the more he gets into legal trouble, the more that number becomes a ceiling rather than a floor.
Something that isn't mentioned very often amongst all these polls showing support for trump at alarming (to many) levels amongst Republicans..is that neither Republicans nor democrats decide american elections..
Those who pick the president are the third leg..the independents..
From memory registered Republicans are about 25% of voters…
(So trump's support is actually 40+% of 25% of actual voters..meh..!)
And he had his share of support from those independents when elected…but for some time now trump's support amongst independents has tanked…
So (to me) the idea of trump getting the republican nomination..is just another meh..!..and will guarantee a democrat+independents victory..
And all these media stories about trump's support are essentially alarmist bullshit-clickbait if used as a marker to him getting the job again.
(nb:..the above derives from my general knowledge/memories from studying the american political system..and I am just trying to tell those possibly fretting over those alarmist poll-squealings from the media…and the prospect of the orange clown getting another go…to just go meh..!..)
I thought Biden was an excellent candidate last time from everyone of either party who put their names forward. Repairing Trump's damage required someone with vast institutional knowledge, and Biden was the best person for that job in my view. Decades in the Senate and 8 years as VP is not exactly a common CV. Given the difficulties in Congress that are usually underappreciated by most, he's done about as much as anyone was likely to.
That said, the system is so different compared to here, you can't really compare them fairly. Conservative Christians are much bigger part of the electoral base than here, and the Republican Party decided to welcome them in decades ago. The country is huge and there are more powers and politics at city, county and state level, so the state parties are a lot more important than the regions are in NZ. Both major US parties have independent state parties, and often state politics means that US party is a pretty broad church with a lot more overlap than you would think from a presidential campaign.
If Democrats want to be electable in places like Utah or Texas, for example, they have to be closer to the Republican Party in those areas which means pretty conservative politics at the national level. In somewhere like Vermont where Bernie Sanders is one of their Senators, they have a Republican governor, but to get elected, he has to be closer to the local Democratic Party which means pretty liberal politics at the national level.
Ideally someone else could pick it up, but it's nearly unheard of for a current president to not be renominated if they put their name forward. https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-presidents-primary-challenges/ has the 5 occasions in the 234 years of presidencies – the most recent is Chester A Arthur in 1884. The only elected president not to be renominated after seeking reelection was Franklin Pierce in 1856 – the other 4 were Vice-Presidents who replaced presidents who had died during office.
What does it say about the GOP and it's rump base that the only candidate they can muster is a superannuiated sex offender and insurrectionist?
I read at salon.com that this ruling – and Trump's other upcoming legal problems – may act as a bizarre incentive to keep him in the presidential race, since the DOJ will always go softly softly on any presidential candidate.
Biden's unfavourability rating is almost entirely driven by concerns over his age, he moves like a very old man and he makes very old man mistakes when talking. As long as his campaign can assure voters he is up to the job he'll easily defeat Trump.
Luxon has just ruled out working with the Maori Party on ZB.
Whatever anyone says about the decision, I don't think there is any doubt it is a politically astute move.
Given that Labour is not really in a position where it can do the same, there is a fairly clear choice for voters now. Especially since there is quite a furore over co-governance at the moment.
Don't know about "astute". Blind Freddy could see that it's the best thing to say – because irritation with TMP and Maori more generally is a core characteristic of your base. And also present at lower intensities outside your base.
Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office. Luxon would most likely warble away about circumstances bring different back then – at which point a decent interviewer would nail him to the floor by asking "so if circumstances change you might work with them?' Then the vacuous, prattling burbler would cut to his prepared script about "wasteful spending" as a way of escape – and a decent interviewer would cut him short. But hey, journalists, who needs real ones?
Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office.
I guess you have to take the politics of each situation in its context. I think what Key did was a forward thinking move at the time. He didn't actually need TMP when elected. But could see that having them inside the tent could be useful in future elections where he might need their support.
In this case, I have my doubts that TMP would go with National anyway even if that option was available. So, I don't think there is too much downside for National in ruling them out. And, the politics of the situation are that Labour really can't afford to do the same. So, I think TMP has become a bit of a ball and chain for Labour now.
It will be interesting to see if National will rule NZ First out as well. This could really mess with voter's heads if they have to consider National/Act versus a possible Labour/Greens/TMP/NZ First coalition.
And the answer to that question is "If the circumstances change, of course I might change with them. If TMP's leadership and policies were to change, then there is a chance to talk with them. But under the current circumstances – we are ruling them out."
I think TMP is a lot more radical than it was back in the Key times as well.
I think in the end this will be bad for them. Because, it will end up making them politically untouchable so long as there is wide spread resistance amongst voters to the co-governance concept.
So, if National wins this time around, I think Labour will have to rule out TMP in future elections due to a coalition involving TMP being seen as politically toxic for centre voters.
So, they may well end up having a presence in parliament, but never being in the position to achieve anything for their cause.
It will be interesting to see if National rules out NZ First as well. NZ First have already ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, then there isn't much point in a protest vote to NZ First. Especially since National has already stolen NZ First's thunder by ruling out TMP.
Not much choice really, TMP base left them before because they supported National too much, to the degree that TMP lost all their MPs. Politically, TMP aren't really in a position to support National on much other than case-by-case legislation.
That is why I think ruling NZ First out is also a good idea. As I said, NZ First has ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, there isn't any point voting for them.
Oh well, maybe the cholesterol overload will get to Mr Hoggard before he does too much damage! Bacon & eggs for breakfast, T-bone & chips for lunch, Roasted home kill beast for dinner…
Fed Farmers and their members have long been the filthiest of the dirty filthy tories when it comes down to it–profiting most of all from stolen and dubiously acquired land. They are in denial of post colonial fallout as they pour nitrates into the nation’s waterways via animal excretions from over fertilised industrial dairying operations.
For a Fed Farmers person to go ACT shows the desperation, the profitability crisis–plus they need cheap migrant labour and cruel live animal exporting and mud bog “winter farming” to keep their rate of profit up. Farmers crisis is a capitalist crisis.
It would be great to see the progressive farmer and horticulture groups coalesce together more often. Federated Farmers don't represent all farmers, and I sneakily suspect they don't represent a majority of them.
But we won't find that out until more progressive producers are prepared to poke their head above the parapet to face the next version of Howl of a Protest.
Fed Farmers is being outflanked on the right by Groundswell, which poses huge problems for the historic alliance between farmers and urban business that is the foundation of the National party.
The self-radicalisation of the right means there is a real possibility of ACT/Groundswell vying to replace National/Fed Farmers as the majoritry right wing political rural/urban alliance.
We have already seen chaos in Auckland resulting from climate change. And we can see the Nat-ACT boys intend to do nothing about emissions but whistle in the dark and wait for technology to turn up that will allow their farming & business backers to carry on exactly as they are – plus (maybe) some piss-weak concessions to adaptation.
When we see those things, it's completely clear who the real coalition of chaos is.
Well, the right don't like compromise or community, and see that as communism, so no real surprise that they and you? don't like listening to differing points of view.
They describe, by creating the "chaos" meme, any MMP coalition of 'other' groups, which are not Nats or Act.
Luxon thinks we only have one vote apparently, when clearly under MMP we have two.
There is a disconnect from community showing and a whiff of ‘my way’.imo.
My partner says that there are growers and farmers that are more 21st century and pro environment but they tend to be smaller producers, and some of them do get covered on the venerable “Country Calendar” these days. I have met a number in the Far North, which is a smallish, long geographic area when we do local markets so not so many baddies perhaps up here. But mid North down…
Not the first Fed worthy to have a go with ACT. Don Nicolson was ACT candidate in Clutha Southland in 2011 and 2014. He was #3 on ACT list in 2011 and #5 in 2014.
In both elections Nicolson's personal vote far exceeded ACT's party vote in the electorate.
OK it's a very different ACT party now but I think this illustrates that coming from a Fed Farmers presidency doesn't automatically translate to general election success.
Doubtful Hoggard could be as barking as Nicolson. But ya never know…
09:11, Jun 30 2011
Powerful people are manipulating us for their own ends, Don Nicolson believes. And the only way to defeat them is to allow free enterprise to have free rein.
The retiring president of Federated Farmers is convinced New Zealand is a victim of international job-creation schemes.
"There are senior people who absolutely know what they're doing," he says. "They've created industries by building complexity into everything. Every time they write something down – when it goes from the head to the paper – that's when we're lost."
Remember, tankies, a falling out between thieves delivered the USSR as an accidental ally to the West. Stalin had happily allied with Hitler to over run and divvy up large parts of Eastern Europe and provided fuel and raw materials for Hitler's invasions of Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the fuel to bomb London.
Anti Sovietism remains the territory of vacillators and cowards. Much of the world would be have been “eating Bratwurst for breakfast” if not for the Russian people and their allies of WWII.
I'm sure tens of millions of Eastern Europeans were grateful to endure the controlling oppression, forced migration, and ethnic/cultural erasure imposed on them by their post-war colonisers.
You cannot understand why Victory Day is the most significant secular holiday in Russia without getting a sense of just how much the Soviet Union lost in the Nazi-Soviet War.
And the Ukrainians suffered more than most as they were living in the area that much of the fighting took place in and which was occupied for a couple of years by the Nazis.
Hitler started off by attacking Russia. I don't think he was thinking of attacking the British and French until Chamberlain declared war. The pact with Russia came about because he realized he would have deal with Western Europe first. Stalin probably went along with it because the respite gave him a chance sort out his own defenses. He probably guessed that Hitler would probably renege.
Theinvasion of Poland(1 September – 6 October 1939) was a joint attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany, the Slovak Republic, and the Soviet Union; which marked the beginning of World War II.
Great news from Bakhmut, the Ulrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has apparently countrer-attacked and driven the Russians back 2.6km on a 3km front, a big advance in the context of the fighting there.
I mentioned the unit because it is a very interesting and a very powerful one. Formed from Azov units it is basically a fully mechanised reinforced brigade of three infantry and one tank battalion plus one each of an artillery, drone, and combat engineer battalion.
Twitter video shows close tank/infantry coooperation in a combined arms assault, which indicates the unit has benefited from western training. There are heaps and heaps of dead Russians in the imagery. Just lately a lot of video and still imagery showing very large numbers of Russian KIA have been showing up online, perhaps indicating the Ukrainians are not only inflicting very heavy losses on the Russian forces but defeating them as well and seizing/retaining control of the battle zone.
If one well trained and equipped brigade can rout the Wagner forces so thoroughly in a local counter-attack, that has got to be an encouraging sign.
Read something awhile ago about a NATO peer to peer based estimate that Poots needs 1900 troops /kilometre to hold a fortified front against mechanised and tank divisions that can choose to attack anywhere along the 800 kilometre front.
The Russian have built multiple lines of defense in the occupied regions along the expected axis of any Ukrainian offensive. These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefileds, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers – especially Russian airpower, which the Ukrainians have no answer – to intervene.
The issue for the Russians is manpower. To effectively defend against an attack that the Ukrainians are looking like putting together requires sufficient manpower in an area of the frontlines of 30 km of around 50 to 90 thousand troops. They can do this in upward of 90 to 100 km of the front. Unfortunately for them they need to do so for 500 km unless they pick exactly the spot the Ukrainians will focus upon.
" These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefields, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers"
That sounds rather like the French intentions when they built the Maginot line back before WW 2. How did that work out?
Nothing like the Maginot line, a closer analogy would be the field works built by the Soviets at Kursk or possibly the Hindenburg line in WW1. The difference with Kursk is the Soviets deployed 1,900,000 men over a 260km front, and the Hindenburg line was 140km long and manned by 20 divisions, around 350-400,000 men.
Yes, I saw that. Some rather graphic footage. But, good to see the success.
I have thought for awhile that Bakhmut would be a good place to launch a counter offensive for several reasons:
Firstly, the Russians are on attack, so won't tend to be as well dug in.
Secondly, there is a good chance for Ukraine to do a pincer movement by attacking from either side of the flanks, and effectively encircling a lot of Russian and Wagner soldiers.
Update: this Ukrainian attack saw the combat debut of the Bradley IFV. At least a pair of them were involved and the destroyed at least four BMPs with ease. The BMP is completely outclassed by the Bradley.
Australian doctors in private practice may come under pressure to cease involvement in medicalised gender change of minors following a landmark insurance decision that stresses the significant risk of litigation.
“In response to the high risk of claims arising from irreversible treatments provided to those who medically and surgically transition as children and adolescents, [medical indemnity insurer] MDA National is restricting cover for practitioners in private practice,” the insurer says in an email to members with this exposure.
No payment
The MDA National email to doctors seeing gender dysphoric youth says: “[From July 1, we] will not cover you or make a payment when the claim against you arises in any way out of your assessment that a patient under the age of 18 years is suitable for gender transition.”
The insurer, which has 54,000 health professional members, also says it will no longer cover doctors if they face a claim after “initiating prescribing of gender affirming hormones for any patient under the age of 18 years.
The risks to the insurer are completely different to any medical risks to the people treated by private physicians. The insurer’s decision was purely commercial and protecting the business, if that’s what you mean with “objectively”.
They are socialising the losses/risks to state-funded clinics and hospitals. It is purely a commercial decision. In Oregon, they went the other way, as per the article.
well, yes, obviously the insurance company's motivation is commercial, but the basis for that decision is complex and important social and medical issues. There's an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the overmedicalisation of teens and children. Likewise with climate.
In Oregon the state is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures. In Australia the insurer is withdrawing cover for surgeons if they are involved in claims from surgery that leaves detrans people with permanent disability (sued or prosecuted, I'm unclear from the article). Two different kinds of insurance.
The former is ideological against evidence and safe practice. Good to see detransition surgery covered, but it's pretty fucked up to enforce a questionable system and then pay for remedial surgery to try and mitigate the entirely predictable mistakes and damage. My guess is the state is overriding the insurance sector's commercial motivations.
The latter is the insurance company having watched what is happening with both detrans legal cases internationally, as well as research.
I think that both Molly and you are conflating different types of risks involved in medical transition for minors. The insurer's decision is based on the risk of legal liability for potential claims arising from unhappy or harmed patients who may sue for malpractice or negligence. This risk is influenced by the strength of evidence for the safety and efficacy of the treatments, the quality of informed consent obtained from the patients and their parents, and the availability of alternative options for addressing gender dysphoria. The insurer's decision is not based on the risk of medical harm to the patients themselves, which is a separate issue that should be evaluated by qualified health professionals on a case-by-case basis.
You also said that Oregon is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures, but this is not entirely correct. The State of Oregon is requiring insurers to cover gender-affirming treatments that are deemed medically necessary by a health care provider, which may include cosmetic services or revisions to prior treatments. This does not mean that insurers have to cover any procedure that a patient requests, but rather that they have to follow the professional judgment of the provider. This is different from Australia, where the insurer is withdrawing cover for doctors who assess or initiate gender transition for patients under 18, regardless of their professional judgment or the hospital setting. In effect, the Australian insurer is removing the ability of doctors to act on sound clinical judgement.
Yes, I agree with you that there is an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the over-medicalisation of teens and children, but I also think that there is a danger in relying on insurance companies to determine the standard of care for complex and controversial medical issues. Insurance companies are not neutral judges of scientific evidence or ethical principles; they are profit-driven entities that may have ulterior motives or conflicts of interest. They may also be influenced by political or social pressures, such as transphobic backlash or litigation threats. It seems to me that this might be another cynical ploy in yet another culture war (or is it just one big one?), which is why some appear to be rejoicing at this decision. Only more independent research and better guidelines for health professionals and patients is going to lead to better options for treatment, which includes psychological treatment.
We've seen this with earthquake cover in Wellington, where properties are unable to get cover, if they are not up to Govt standards. It's an issue with apartments in particular (the complication of strata title, as well as costs being beyond the ability of some residents to pay).
We're starting to see it with climate risk insurance.
And, IMO, the sooner the better. Wealthy people can strong-arm the council with constant legal challenges to get to build what they want to, where they want to. They have no leverage over insurers. If they don't find the risk acceptable, they won't touch it with a barge pole.
Fair enough. Sensible…..enforces, hopefully, a period of what I call 'watchful waiting' until the person is 18 & over. The rush to transition and also the 'contagion' whereby groups of younger ones find a need to transition may abate by that stage with the move to new friends, moving on, time…….
To me it doesn't matter how a slow down occurs, whether by sensible society moves or by a withdrawing of insurance cover as long as the current madness is slowed.
Quote from the article
‘A physician who follows the gender clinic controversy told GCN he believed “this whole treatment area [of medicalised gender change for minors] has gone ahead without adequate evidence of, firstly, efficacy, and, secondly, safety’.
There is good dicussion in the article about the concept that this withdrawal of cover may force the consideration of requests to a multi group of specialists in a hospital setting. This can often include psychiatric help which has been lacking up until now.
Jordan Peterson who has not been my flavour of the month, has really risen in my estimation with his interviews drawing on his professional knowledge of the mental health and consent aspects.
The insurer is simply cutting its business risks it’s exposed to, it says so in the article. Anyway:
“We consider it appropriate that the assessment and initial prescribing for patients transitioning under the age of 18 years occurs with the support and management of a multi-disciplinary team in a hospital setting.”
[…]
If MDA National stands firm against any transgender activist backlash, and the remaining medical indemnity funds adopt similar carve-outs, the effect would be to concentrate the legal risk in state-funded children’s hospital gender clinics.
[…]
There is no good Australian data on the extent of medical transition of minors in the private health sector, but specialist gender clinics in public children’s hospitals have long waiting lists, and trans rights activists have campaigned to mainstream hormonal interventions through local family doctors and hospitals.
Your hopeful wish for 'watchful waiting' might be granted, especially when other insurers follow suit.
Yes the business is cutting its risks and you could say that this is because gender affirmation by chemicals designed to treat prostate cancer etcplus cross hormones, or 'heroic' ((meaning anything but) surgery as penises are fashioned out of forearms, made into vaginas, unnecessary hysterectomies and breast removals are done) is a risky business without much of a scientific or medical backing behind it.
The company would have thin grounds on which to support a member who may be taken to court.
To me it does not matter where the stopping comes from….having insurers cut back on costs for claiming and meeting litigation costs cases & the consequent restricting of access is as good a way as any.
There is no good Australian data on the extent of medical transition of minors in the private health sector,
Actually there is a lack of data, full stop, worldwide let alone 'good' data. An example is in Sweden which has pulled back on hormonal interventions…
Following a comprehensive review of evidence, the NBHW concluded that the evidence base for hormonal interventions for gender-dysphoric youth is of low quality, and that hormonal treatments may carry risks.
…
In light of above limitations in the evidence base, the ongoing identity formation in youth, and in view of the fact that gender transition has pervasive and lifelong consequences, the NBHW has concluded that, at present, the risks of hormonal interventions for gender dysphoric youth outweigh the potential benefits.
Teachers grew particularly alarmed early this year when word spread that Ken Witt, the new superintendent, did not plan to reapply for grants that covered the salaries of counselors and social workers.
At Gateway Elementary School in March, Witt told staff members he prioritized academic achievement, not students’ emotions. “We are not the department of health and human services,” he said, as teachers angrily objected, according to two recordings of the meeting made by staff members and shared with NBC News.
Someone in the meeting asked if taxpayers would get a say in these changes, and Witt said that they already did — when they elected the school board.
Not surprising the Bible makes an appearance in that particular little corner of looneyville. The surprise is the district superintendent is Ken Witt. 'Frank' would've suited him better then he officially could have been 'F Witt.'
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On a very wet Friday, we hope you have somewhere nice and warm and dry to sit and catch up on our roundup of some of this week’s top stories in transport and urbanism. The header image shows Northcote Intermediate Students strolling across the Te Ara Awataha Greenway Bridge in ...
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I'm gonna try real goodSwear that I'm gonna try from now on and for the rest of my lifeI'm gonna power on, I'm gonna enjoy the highsAnd the lows will come and goAnd may your dreamsAnd may your dreamsAnd may your dreams never dieSongwriters: Ben Reed.These are Stranger Days than ...
With the execution of global reciprocal tariffs, US President Donald Trump has issued his ‘declaration of economic independence for America’. The immediate direct effect on the Australian economy will likely be small, with more risk ...
The StrategistBy Jacqueline Gibson, Nerida King and Ned Talbot
AUKUS governments began 25 years ago trying to draw in a greater range of possible defence suppliers beyond the traditional big contractors. It is an important objective, and some progress has been made, but governments ...
I approach fresh Trump news reluctantly. It never holds the remotest promise of pleasure. I had the very, very least of expectations for his Rumble in the Jungle, his Thriller in Manila, his Liberation Day.God May 1945 is becoming the bitterest of jokes isn’t it?Whatever. Liberation Day he declared it ...
Beyond trade and tariff turmoil, Donald Trump pushes at the three core elements of Australia’s international policy: the US alliance, the region and multilateralism. What Kevin Rudd called the ‘three fundamental pillars’ are the heart ...
So, having broken its promise to the nation, and dumped 85% of submissions on the Treaty Principles Bill in the trash, National's stooges on the Justice Committee have decided to end their "consideration" of the bill, and report back a full month early: Labour says the Justice Select Committee ...
The 2024 Independent Intelligence Review offers a mature and sophisticated understanding of workforce challenges facing Australia’s National Intelligence Community (NIC). It provides a thoughtful roadmap for modernising that workforce and enhancing cross-agency and cross-sector collaboration. ...
OPINION AND ANALYSIS:Chief Ombudsman Peter Boshier’s comments singling out Health NZ for “acting contrary to the law” couldn’t be clearer. If you find my work of value, do consider subscribing and/or supporting me. Thank you.Health NZ has been acting a law unto itself. That includes putting its management under extraordinary ...
Southeast Asia’s three most populous countries are tightening their security relationships, evidently in response to China’s aggression in the South China Sea. This is most obvious in increased cooperation between the coast guards of the ...
In the late 1970s Australian sport underwent institutional innovation propelling it to new heights. Today, Australia must urgently adapt to a contested and confronting strategic environment. Contributing to this, a new ASPI research project will ...
In short this morning in our political economy:The Nelson Hospital waiting list crisis just gets worse, including compelling interviews with an over-worked surgeon who is leaving, and a patient who discovered after 19 months of waiting for a referral that her bowel and ovaries were fused together with scar tissue ...
Plainly, the claims being tossed around in the media last year that the new terminal envisaged by Auckland International Airport was a gold-plated “Taj Mahal” extravagance were false. With one notable exception, the Commerce Commission’s comprehensive investigation has ended up endorsing every other aspect of the airport’s building programme (and ...
Movements clustered around the Right, and Far Right as well, are rising globally. Despite the recent defeats we’ve seen in the last day or so with the win of a Democrat-backed challenger, Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, over her Republican counterpart, Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, in the battle for ...
In February 2025, John Cook gave two webinars for republicEN explaining the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. 20 February 2025: republicEN webinar part 1 - BUST or TRUST? The scientific consensus on climate change In the first webinar, Cook explained the history of the 20-year scientific consensus on climate change. How do ...
After three decades of record-breaking growth, at about the same time as Xi Jinping rose to power in 2012, China’s economy started the long decline to its current state of stagnation. The Chinese Communist Party ...
The Pike River Coal mine was a ticking time bomb.Ventilation systems designed to prevent methane buildup were incomplete or neglected.Gas detectors that might warn of danger were absent or broken.Rock bolting was skipped, old tunnels left unsealed, communication systems failed during emergencies.Employees and engineers kept warning management about the … ...
Regional hegemons come in different shapes and sizes. Australia needs to think about what kind of hegemon China would be, and become, should it succeed in displacing the United States in Asia. It’s time to ...
RNZ has a story this morning about the expansion of solar farms in Aotearoa, driven by today's ground-breaking ceremony at the Tauhei solar farm in Te Aroha: From starting out as a tiny player in the electricity system, solar power generated more electricity than coal and gas combined for ...
After the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, and almost a year before the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, US President George H W Bush proclaimed a ‘new world order’. Now, just two months ...
Warning: Some images may be distressing. Thank you for those who support my work. It means a lot.A shopfront in Australia shows Liberal leader Peter Dutton and mining magnate Gina Rinehart depicted with Nazi imageryUS Government Seeks Death Penalty for Luigi MangioneMangione was publicly walked in front of media in ...
Aged care workers rallying against potential roster changes say Bupa, which runs retirement homes across the country, needs to focus on care instead of money. More than half of New Zealand workers wish they had chosen a different career according to a new survey. Consumers are likely to see a ...
The scurrilous attacks on Benjamin Doyle, a list Green MP, over his supposed inappropriate behaviour towards children has dominated headlines and social media this past week, led by frothing Rightwing agitators clutching their pearls and fanning the flames of moral panic over pedophiles and and perverts. Winston Peter decided that ...
Twilight Time Lighthouse Cuba, Wigan Street, Wellington, Sunday 6 April, 5:30pm for 6pm start. Twilight Time looks at the life and work of Desmond Ball, (1947-2016), a barefooted academic from ‘down under’ who was hailed by Jimmy Carter as “the man who saved the world”, as he proved the fallacy ...
The landedAnd the wealthyAnd the piousAnd the healthyAnd the straight onesAnd the pale onesAnd we only mean the male ones!If you're all of the above, then you're ok!As we build a new tomorrow here today!Lyrics Glenn Slater and Allan Menken.Ah, Democracy - can you smell it?It's presently a sulphurous odour, ...
US President Donald Trump’s unconventional methods of conducting international relations will compel the next federal government to reassess whether the United States’ presence in the region and its security assurances provide a reliable basis for ...
Things seem to be at a pretty low ebb in and around the Reserve Bank. There was, in particular, the mysterious, sudden, and as-yet unexplained resignation of the Governor (we’ve had four Governors since the Bank was given its operational autonomy 35 years ago, and only two have completed their ...
Long story short:PMChristopher Luxon said in January his Government was ‘going for growth’ and he wanted New Zealanders to develop a ‘culture of yes.’ Yet his own Government is constantly saying no, or not yet, to anchor investments that would unleash real private business investment and GDP growth. ...
Long story short:PMChristopher Luxon said in January his Government was ‘going for growth’ and he wanted New Zealanders to develop a ‘culture of yes.’ Yet his own Government is constantly saying no, or not yet, to anchor investments that would unleash real private business investment and GDP growth. ...
For decades, Britain and Australia had much the same process for regulating media handling of defence secrets. It was the D-notice system, under which media would be asked not to publish. The two countries diverged ...
For decades, Britain and Australia had much the same process for regulating media handling of defence secrets. It was the D-notice system, under which media would be asked not to publish. The two countries diverged ...
This post by Nicolas Reid was originally published on Linked in. It is republished here with permission.In this article, I make a not-entirely-serious case for ripping out Spaghetti Junction in Auckland, replacing it with a motorway tunnel, and redeveloping new city streets and neighbourhoods above it instead. What’s ...
This post by Nicolas Reid was originally published on Linked in. It is republished here with permission.In this article, I make a not-entirely-serious case for ripping out Spaghetti Junction in Auckland, replacing it with a motorway tunnel, and redeveloping new city streets and neighbourhoods above it instead. What’s ...
In short this morning in our political economy:The Nelson Hospital crisis revealed by 1News’Jessica Roden dominates the political agenda today. Yet again, population growth wasn’t planned for, or funded.Kāinga Ora is planning up to 900 house sales, including new ones, Jonathan Milne reports for Newsroom.One of New Zealand’s biggest ...
In short this morning in our political economy:The Nelson Hospital crisis revealed by 1News’Jessica Roden dominates the political agenda today. Yet again, population growth wasn’t planned for, or funded.Kāinga Ora is planning up to 900 house sales, including new ones, Jonathan Milne reports for Newsroom.One of New Zealand’s biggest ...
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues unabated. Neither side is in a position to achieve its stated objectives through military force. But now there is significant diplomatic activity as well. Ukraine has agreed to ...
Today, the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill has passed its third and final reading, but there is one more stage before it becomes law. The Governor-General must give their ‘Royal assent’ for any bill to become legally enforceable. This means that, even if a bill gets voted ...
Abortion care at Whakatāne Hospital has been quietly shelved, with patients told they will likely have to travel more than an hour to Tauranga to get the treatment they need. ...
Thousands of New Zealanders’ submissions are missing from the official parliamentary record because the National-dominated Justice Select Committee has rushed work on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Today’s announcement of 10 percent tariffs for New Zealand goods entering the United States is disappointing for exporters and consumers alike, with the long-lasting impact on prices and inflation still unknown. ...
The National Government’s choices have contributed to a slow-down in the building sector, as thousands of people have lost their jobs in construction. ...
Willie Apiata’s decision to hand over his Victoria Cross to the Minister for Veterans is a powerful and selfless act, made on behalf of all those who have served our country. ...
The Privileges Committee has denied fundamental rights to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Rawiri Waititi and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, breaching their own standing orders, breaching principles of natural justice, and highlighting systemic prejudice and discrimination within our parliamentary processes. The three MPs were summoned to the privileges committee following their performance of a haka ...
April 1 used to be a day when workers could count on a pay rise with stronger support for those doing it tough, but that’s not the case under this Government. ...
Winston Peters is shopping for smaller ferries after Nicola Willis torpedoed the original deal, which would have delivered new rail enabled ferries next year. ...
The Government should work with other countries to press the Myanmar military regime to stop its bombing campaign especially while the country recovers from the devastating earthquake. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Government to scrap proposed changes to Early Childhood Care, after attending a petition calling for the Government to ‘Put tamariki at the heart of decisions about ECE’. ...
New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill today that will remove the power of MPs conscience votes and ensure mandatory national referendums are held before any conscience issues are passed into law. “We are giving democracy and power back to the people”, says New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters. ...
Welcome to members of the diplomatic corp, fellow members of parliament, the fourth estate, foreign affairs experts, trade tragics, ladies and gentlemen. ...
In recent weeks, disturbing instances of state-sanctioned violence against Māori have shed light on the systemic racism permeating our institutions. An 11-year-old autistic Māori child was forcibly medicated at the Henry Bennett Centre, a 15-year-old had his jaw broken by police in Napier, kaumātua Dean Wickliffe went on a hunger ...
Confidence in the job market has continued to drop to its lowest level in five years as more New Zealanders feel uncertain about finding work, keeping their jobs, and getting decent pay, according to the latest Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index. ...
The Greens are calling on the Government to follow through on their vague promises of environmental protection in their Resource Management Act (RMA) reform. ...
“Make New Zealand First Again” Ladies and gentlemen, First of all, thank you for being here today. We know your lives are busy and you are working harder and longer than you ever have, and there are many calls on your time, so thank you for the chance to speak ...
Hundreds more Palestinians have died in recent days as Israel’s assault on Gaza continues and humanitarian aid, including food and medicine, is blocked. ...
National is looking to cut hundreds of jobs at New Zealand’s Defence Force, while at the same time it talks up plans to increase focus and spending in Defence. ...
It’s been revealed that the Government is secretly trying to bring back a ‘one-size fits all’ standardised test – a decision that has shocked school principals. ...
The Green Party is calling for the compassionate release of Dean Wickliffe, a 77-year-old kaumātua on hunger strike at the Spring Hill Corrections Facility, after visiting him at the prison. ...
The Green Party is calling on Government MPs to support Chlöe Swarbrick’s Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence and illegal actions in Palestine, following another day of appalling violence against civilians in Gaza. ...
The Government’s new planning legislation to replace the Resource Management Act will make it easier to get things done while protecting the environment, say Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop and Under-Secretary Simon Court. “The RMA is broken and everyone knows it. It makes it too hard to build ...
Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay has today launched a public consultation on New Zealand and India’s negotiations of a formal comprehensive Free Trade Agreement. “Negotiations are getting underway, and the Public’s views will better inform us in the early parts of this important negotiation,” Mr McClay says. We are ...
More than 900 thousand superannuitants and almost five thousand veterans are among the New Zealanders set to receive a significant financial boost from next week, an uplift Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says will help support them through cost-of-living challenges. “I am pleased to confirm that from 1 ...
Progressing a holistic strategy to unlock the potential of New Zealand’s geothermal resources, possibly in applications beyond energy generation, is at the centre of discussions with mana whenua at a hui in Rotorua today, Resources and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is in the early stages ...
New annual data has exposed the staggering cost of delays previously hidden in the building consent system, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I directed Building Consent Authorities to begin providing quarterly data last year to improve transparency, following repeated complaints from tradespeople waiting far longer than the statutory ...
Increases in water charges for Auckland consumers this year will be halved under the Watercare Charter which has now been passed into law, Local Government Minister Simon Watts and Auckland Minister Simeon Brown say. The charter is part of the financial arrangement for Watercare developed last year by Auckland Council ...
There is wide public support for the Government’s work to strengthen New Zealand’s biosecurity protections, says Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard. “The Ministry for Primary Industries recently completed public consultation on proposed amendments to the Biosecurity Act and the submissions show that people understand the importance of having a strong biosecurity ...
A new independent review function will enable individuals and organisations to seek an expert independent review of specified civil aviation regulatory decisions made by, or on behalf of, the Director of Civil Aviation, Acting Transport Minister James Meager has announced today. “Today we are making it easier and more affordable ...
The Government will invest in an enhanced overnight urgent care service for the Napier community as part of our focus on ensuring access to timely, quality healthcare, Health Minister Simeon Brown has today confirmed. “I am delighted that a solution has been found to ensure Napier residents will continue to ...
Health Minister Simeon Brown and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey attended a sod turning today to officially mark the start of construction on a new mental health facility at Hillmorton Campus. “This represents a significant step in modernising mental health services in Canterbury,” Mr Brown says. “Improving health infrastructure is ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has welcomed confirmation the economy has turned the corner. Stats NZ reported today that gross domestic product grew 0.7 per cent in the three months to December following falls in the June and September quarters. “We know many families and businesses are still suffering the after-effects ...
The sealing of a 12-kilometre stretch of State Highway 43 (SH43) through the Tangarakau Gorge – one of the last remaining sections of unsealed state highway in the country – has been completed this week as part of a wider programme of work aimed at improving the safety and resilience ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters says relations between New Zealand and the United States are on a strong footing, as he concludes a week-long visit to New York and Washington DC today. “We came to the United States to ask the new Administration what it wants from ...
Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee has welcomed changes to international anti-money laundering standards which closely align with the Government’s reforms. “The Financial Action Taskforce (FATF) last month adopted revised standards for tackling money laundering and the financing of terrorism to allow for simplified regulatory measures for businesses, organisations and sectors ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour says he welcomes Medsafe’s decision to approve an electronic controlled drug register for use in New Zealand pharmacies, allowing pharmacies to replace their physical paper-based register. “The register, developed by Kiwi brand Toniq Limited, is the first of its kind to be approved in New ...
The Coalition Government’s drive for regional economic growth through the $1.2 billion Regional Infrastructure Fund is on track with more than $550 million in funding so far committed to key infrastructure projects, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. “To date, the Regional Infrastructure Fund (RIF) has received more than 250 ...
[Comments following the bilateral meeting with United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio; United States State Department, Washington D.C.] * We’re very pleased with our meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio this afternoon. * We came here to listen to the new Administration and to be clear about what ...
The intersection of State Highway 2 (SH2) and Wainui Road in the Eastern Bay of Plenty will be made safer and more efficient for vehicles and freight with the construction of a new and long-awaited roundabout, says Transport Minister Chris Bishop. “The current intersection of SH2 and Wainui Road is ...
The Ocean Race will return to the City of Sails in 2027 following the Government’s decision to invest up to $4 million from the Major Events Fund into the international event, Auckland Minister Simeon Brown says. “New Zealand is a proud sailing nation, and Auckland is well-known internationally as the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Amid the chaos of the tariff crisis and the dark clouds internationally, there is a potential silver lining for Australian mortgage holders. Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Monday pointed out that the markets were expecting ...
Three billion dollars has been wiped off the value of New Zealand's share market as the rout of global financial markets finally caught up with the local market. ...
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone One thing October 7 did accomplish was getting Israel and its allies to show the world their true face. Getting them to stand before all of humanity to say, “If you resist us, we’ll kill your ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Hartigan, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney Financial markets around the world have been slammed by the Trump adminstration’s sweeping tariffs on its trading partners, and China’s swift retaliation. Share markets have posted their biggest declines since the COVID pandemic ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Percy, Professor of International Relations, The University of Queensland Australia faces crisis-level workforce shortfalls in security and defence. Recruiting more people to the defence force is now an urgent matter of national security. So, comments – such as those recently made ...
RNZ Pacific Autonomous Bougainville Government President Ishmael Toroama has condemned the circulation of an artificial intelligence (AI)-generated video depicting a physical confrontation between him and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape. The clip, first shared on Facebook last week, is generated from the above picture of Toroama and Marape ...
"We need to continue speaking out against the government about this. Ka whawhai tonu tātou. We all benefit as New Zealanders when our indigenous people do well – nobody loses, because we all win,” Dr Will Flavell says. ...
This Defence Capability Plan will ensure that desperately needed public services here in Aotearoa are starved of resources and primed for privatisation, while US weapons companies drain our treasury and the US military sets us up to service them ...
Three billion dollars has been wiped off the value of New Zealand's share market as the rout of global financial markets finally caught up with the local market. ...
Spokesperson for The Sensible Sentencing Trust Louise Parsons says: “We were happy to make the image changes, but find it telling that they are trying to have our billboards taken down when they simply state what their MPs advocate for - the ‘radical abolition ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rohan Best, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, Macquarie University NOWRA photography/Shutterstock Over the weekend, Labor promised to subsidise home batteries by 30%. This would save about A$4,000 per household up front for an average battery. The scheme has a goal of ...
The Government today announced a $12 billion dollar investment in defence capability over the next four years. But at the same time NZDF is planning to slash 374 roles from the civilian workforce, coming on top of cuts late last year which saw 144 civilian ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra James, Research Fellow, Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University News feeds have been flooded with reactions to Adolescence, Netflix’s newest viral hit. Released in March, the limited series racked up over 66 million views in just ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Young Australians will shape the upcoming federal election. For the first time, Gen Z and Millennials are the dominant voter bloc, outnumbering Baby Boomers. But over the past couple of years, we’ve heard stories from around ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne Two men were arrested for allegedly bringing loaded firearms into the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) during Thursday’s AFL match between Collingwood and Carlton. The incident didn’t ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitie Kuempel, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University As climate change wreaks havoc with the world’s oceans, future production of fish, crustaceans and other aquatic organisms is under threat. Our new research shows how this disturbance will play out for ...
Pouārahi, Ivy Harper, said the Government and Te Puni Kōkiri had consistently overlooked clear research and data. The latest evaluation, completed by Ihi Research, was particularly compelling, she said. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland @logansfewd via Instagram “Sometimes you need to eat an entire cucumber.” So begins a series of viral videos by TikTok “cucumber guy” Logan Moffitt, who has raked in ...
The event will also feature speeches from workers and a panel of experts including Saunoamaali’i Dr Karanina Sumeo, Shamubeel Eaqub, Lyndy McIntyre and Ed Miller. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rod McNaughton, Professor of Entrepreneurship, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images When retail executives start swearing during earnings calls, something is clearly amiss. That’s what happened recently when the CEO of United States-based luxury furniture retailer Restoration Hardware ...
The Spinoff’s resident White Lotus geeks guess who’ll cark it in season three’s finale. (Legal disclaimer: Contains spoilers for the first seven episodes.)After eight weeks of analysing the theme song, drooling over the scenery and wondering how twisted the storylines can get, season three of The White Lotus concludes ...
The cost of unchecked influence The New Zealand public will gain many benefits from a fairer, transparent public policy making process - like a greater recognition of what the public values and more trust in government decision makers. ...
The most reliably brutal burn is to call someone average. Why? This article was first published on Madeleine Holden’s self-titled Substack. I have a painful confession: I’m responsible for not just one but two of the most viral anti-male slogans of the 2010s. I coined “dick is abundant and low value” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brian D Earp, Associate Director, Yale-Hastings Program in Ethics and Health Policy, University of Oxford Cybermagician / Shutterstock “I’m really not sure what to do anymore. I don’t have anyone I can talk to,” types a lonely user to an AI ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aruna Sathanapally, Grattan Institute The 2025 federal election coincides with a period of profound global uncertainty, as the Trump administration wreaks havoc on the free trade system and longstanding alliances. The events of recent months have underscored how, at each election, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jialing Lin, Research fellow, International Centre for Future Health Systems, UNSW Sydney Rose Marinelli/Shutterstock MyMedicare is a scheme that encourages patients to register with a regular GP practice to improve their health. But few patients have enrolled. Since its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Leihy, Ecologist, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Visitors to Australia are often shocked at having to declare an apple or wooden item under our biosecurity policies. Biosecurity policies are used to keep out pest species and diseases. But they’re expensive ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamilla Rosdahl, Senior Lecturer, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock Being labelled a “nice guy” was once considered a form of flattery. Today, however, anyone privy to the world of dating and romance will know this isn’t necessarily a compliment. The term ...
Now that Trump has been found by a jury to be guilty of sexual assault, will Biden look any more attractive as a candidate?
Bidens polls are so so bad, can there be any upside or is MAGA contingent largely immovable?
The numbers suggest that Trump's support is pretty firm around the 42-45% mark. Good news is that the more he gets into legal trouble, the more that number becomes a ceiling rather than a floor.
Something that isn't mentioned very often amongst all these polls showing support for trump at alarming (to many) levels amongst Republicans..is that neither Republicans nor democrats decide american elections..
Those who pick the president are the third leg..the independents..
From memory registered Republicans are about 25% of voters…
(So trump's support is actually 40+% of 25% of actual voters..meh..!)
And he had his share of support from those independents when elected…but for some time now trump's support amongst independents has tanked…
So (to me) the idea of trump getting the republican nomination..is just another meh..!..and will guarantee a democrat+independents victory..
And all these media stories about trump's support are essentially alarmist bullshit-clickbait if used as a marker to him getting the job again.
(nb:..the above derives from my general knowledge/memories from studying the american political system..and I am just trying to tell those possibly fretting over those alarmist poll-squealings from the media…and the prospect of the orange clown getting another go…to just go meh..!..)
I am actually more alarmed by de santis…and would rather trump than that piece of work..
I just can't get my head around US politics. Given the population of the US, is Trump and Biden really the best they can find to lead their country?
And Trump looks like he is going to run for the Republicans again even though most polls suggest he will lose. It just doesn't make sense.
I would rank any of our leaders from either party over the last 20 years as far superior to those who the US have put up in recent times..
I thought Biden was an excellent candidate last time from everyone of either party who put their names forward. Repairing Trump's damage required someone with vast institutional knowledge, and Biden was the best person for that job in my view. Decades in the Senate and 8 years as VP is not exactly a common CV. Given the difficulties in Congress that are usually underappreciated by most, he's done about as much as anyone was likely to.
That said, the system is so different compared to here, you can't really compare them fairly. Conservative Christians are much bigger part of the electoral base than here, and the Republican Party decided to welcome them in decades ago. The country is huge and there are more powers and politics at city, county and state level, so the state parties are a lot more important than the regions are in NZ. Both major US parties have independent state parties, and often state politics means that US party is a pretty broad church with a lot more overlap than you would think from a presidential campaign.
If Democrats want to be electable in places like Utah or Texas, for example, they have to be closer to the Republican Party in those areas which means pretty conservative politics at the national level. In somewhere like Vermont where Bernie Sanders is one of their Senators, they have a Republican governor, but to get elected, he has to be closer to the local Democratic Party which means pretty liberal politics at the national level.
Biden, maybe…. But again? He is struggling now with what appears to be the onset of dementia. How will he be at the end of another term?
Ideally someone else could pick it up, but it's nearly unheard of for a current president to not be renominated if they put their name forward. https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-presidents-primary-challenges/ has the 5 occasions in the 234 years of presidencies – the most recent is Chester A Arthur in 1884. The only elected president not to be renominated after seeking reelection was Franklin Pierce in 1856 – the other 4 were Vice-Presidents who replaced presidents who had died during office.
As long as he remembers he is running, I guess.
Biden speaks at White House Correspondents' Dinner Apr 30 2023
Hardly senile. Start from about 6.30, the earlier part is about detained journalists. Well worth the watch.
Sorry, the link got stuffed up somehow. Biden speaks at WH Correspondents' dinner.
I feel you get a good measure of Biden as he works the crowd.
Immovable. Trump can do what he likes and the Ginni Thomas brigade will support him.
What does it say about the GOP and it's rump base that the only candidate they can muster is a superannuiated sex offender and insurrectionist?
I read at salon.com that this ruling – and Trump's other upcoming legal problems – may act as a bizarre incentive to keep him in the presidential race, since the DOJ will always go softly softly on any presidential candidate.
Biden's unfavourability rating is almost entirely driven by concerns over his age, he moves like a very old man and he makes very old man mistakes when talking. As long as his campaign can assure voters he is up to the job he'll easily defeat Trump.
Then roll on AOC for a tilt?
What are your thoughts on Robert F. Kennedy Jr?
Evidence that not even Camelot can escape the Hapsburg jaw turning up eventually.
Heh…!
Perfect, ha ha apart from the fact that he is a mad anti vaxxer and member of the so-called Disinformation Dozen.
https://counterhate.com/research/the-disinformation-dozen/
Who knows what other stuff he supports.
The jaw may not have 'Hapsburged' but the mind is not on a par with either JFK or RJK.
His supporters will be
He didn't do it, and if he did do it, it was her fault, and what about Hunter Biden's laptop?
Luxon has just ruled out working with the Maori Party on ZB.
Whatever anyone says about the decision, I don't think there is any doubt it is a politically astute move.
Given that Labour is not really in a position where it can do the same, there is a fairly clear choice for voters now. Especially since there is quite a furore over co-governance at the moment.
The turnout number will be of interest…I suspect it will be particularly low
Don't know about "astute". Blind Freddy could see that it's the best thing to say – because irritation with TMP and Maori more generally is a core characteristic of your base. And also present at lower intensities outside your base.
Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office. Luxon would most likely warble away about circumstances bring different back then – at which point a decent interviewer would nail him to the floor by asking "so if circumstances change you might work with them?' Then the vacuous, prattling burbler would cut to his prepared script about "wasteful spending" as a way of escape – and a decent interviewer would cut him short. But hey, journalists, who needs real ones?
I guess you have to take the politics of each situation in its context. I think what Key did was a forward thinking move at the time. He didn't actually need TMP when elected. But could see that having them inside the tent could be useful in future elections where he might need their support.
In this case, I have my doubts that TMP would go with National anyway even if that option was available. So, I don't think there is too much downside for National in ruling them out. And, the politics of the situation are that Labour really can't afford to do the same. So, I think TMP has become a bit of a ball and chain for Labour now.
It will be interesting to see if National will rule NZ First out as well. This could really mess with voter's heads if they have to consider National/Act versus a possible Labour/Greens/TMP/NZ First coalition.
Unfortunately I think it's more than likely the tpm will gift the election to nact. They're coming across as pretty radical
And the answer to that question is "If the circumstances change, of course I might change with them. If TMP's leadership and policies were to change, then there is a chance to talk with them. But under the current circumstances – we are ruling them out."
Simples.
Which allows follow-up questions – "Which leaders and policies do you object to" etc. etc. However it ends, you get a decent interview.
I think TMP is a lot more radical than it was back in the Key times as well.
I think in the end this will be bad for them. Because, it will end up making them politically untouchable so long as there is wide spread resistance amongst voters to the co-governance concept.
So, if National wins this time around, I think Labour will have to rule out TMP in future elections due to a coalition involving TMP being seen as politically toxic for centre voters.
So, they may well end up having a presence in parliament, but never being in the position to achieve anything for their cause.
It will be interesting to see if National rules out NZ First as well. NZ First have already ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, then there isn't much point in a protest vote to NZ First. Especially since National has already stolen NZ First's thunder by ruling out TMP.
Not much choice really, TMP base left them before because they supported National too much, to the degree that TMP lost all their MPs. Politically, TMP aren't really in a position to support National on much other than case-by-case legislation.
How strange for Luxon to be so decisive. Maybe there was no fence available for him to sit on?
Pretty slack for a man with potentially 21 boundries.
I just hope NZF gets 4.9 %-all right wing votes wasted because Peters has made it plain he will go with Luxon.
That is why I think ruling NZ First out is also a good idea. As I said, NZ First has ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, there isn't any point voting for them.
Fed Farmers go ACT…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/300873696/from-fed-farmers-to-act-party-andrew-hoggard-goes-into-politics
Oh well, maybe the cholesterol overload will get to Mr Hoggard before he does too much damage! Bacon & eggs for breakfast, T-bone & chips for lunch, Roasted home kill beast for dinner…
Fed Farmers and their members have long been the filthiest of the dirty filthy tories when it comes down to it–profiting most of all from stolen and dubiously acquired land. They are in denial of post colonial fallout as they pour nitrates into the nation’s waterways via animal excretions from over fertilised industrial dairying operations.
For a Fed Farmers person to go ACT shows the desperation, the profitability crisis–plus they need cheap migrant labour and cruel live animal exporting and mud bog “winter farming” to keep their rate of profit up. Farmers crisis is a capitalist crisis.
It would be great to see the progressive farmer and horticulture groups coalesce together more often. Federated Farmers don't represent all farmers, and I sneakily suspect they don't represent a majority of them.
But we won't find that out until more progressive producers are prepared to poke their head above the parapet to face the next version of Howl of a Protest.
Fed Farmers is being outflanked on the right by Groundswell, which poses huge problems for the historic alliance between farmers and urban business that is the foundation of the National party.
The self-radicalisation of the right means there is a real possibility of ACT/Groundswell vying to replace National/Fed Farmers as the majoritry right wing political rural/urban alliance.
How bleak is that?
Not nearly as bleak as the coalition of chaos mustering on the left.
Thats right, because as they like to constantly remind us, the right always prefers the jackboot of Fascism to the messiness of democracy.
We have already seen chaos in Auckland resulting from climate change. And we can see the Nat-ACT boys intend to do nothing about emissions but whistle in the dark and wait for technology to turn up that will allow their farming & business backers to carry on exactly as they are – plus (maybe) some piss-weak concessions to adaptation.
When we see those things, it's completely clear who the real coalition of chaos is.
Well, the right don't like compromise or community, and see that as communism, so no real surprise that they and you? don't like listening to differing points of view.
They describe, by creating the "chaos" meme, any MMP coalition of 'other' groups, which are not Nats or Act.
Luxon thinks we only have one vote apparently, when clearly under MMP we have two.
There is a disconnect from community showing and a whiff of ‘my way’.imo.
My partner says that there are growers and farmers that are more 21st century and pro environment but they tend to be smaller producers, and some of them do get covered on the venerable “Country Calendar” these days. I have met a number in the Far North, which is a smallish, long geographic area when we do local markets so not so many baddies perhaps up here. But mid North down…
Not the first Fed worthy to have a go with ACT. Don Nicolson was ACT candidate in Clutha Southland in 2011 and 2014. He was #3 on ACT list in 2011 and #5 in 2014.
At an electorate level Nicolson got 796 votes, Tat Loo (Lab) got 5207, Bill cleaned up at 21,327. The same happened in 2014 with Todd Barclay as Nat candidate.
In both elections Nicolson's personal vote far exceeded ACT's party vote in the electorate.
OK it's a very different ACT party now but I think this illustrates that coming from a Fed Farmers presidency doesn't automatically translate to general election success.
Doubtful Hoggard could be as barking as Nicolson. But ya never know…
09:11, Jun 30 2011
Powerful people are manipulating us for their own ends, Don Nicolson believes. And the only way to defeat them is to allow free enterprise to have free rein.
The retiring president of Federated Farmers is convinced New Zealand is a victim of international job-creation schemes.
"There are senior people who absolutely know what they're doing," he says. "They've created industries by building complexity into everything. Every time they write something down – when it goes from the head to the paper – that's when we're lost."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/5211126/Free-enterprise-cooks-up-a-tasty-stew
Tat loo, wonder where he's at now, ??
Remember, tankies, a falling out between thieves delivered the USSR as an accidental ally to the West. Stalin had happily allied with Hitler to over run and divvy up large parts of Eastern Europe and provided fuel and raw materials for Hitler's invasions of Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the fuel to bomb London.
Anton Shekhovtsov ✚
@A_SHEKH0VTS0V
“Victory day” in Russia, celebrating the Soviet occupation of half of Europe
https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1655823472533045249
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F90c165b4-1438-11eb-bca5-e85774a5f3b9.jpg?crop=3825%2C2152%2C141%2C258
Anti Sovietism remains the territory of vacillators and cowards. Much of the world would be have been “eating Bratwurst for breakfast” if not for the Russian people and their allies of WWII.
I'm sure tens of millions of Eastern Europeans were grateful to endure the controlling oppression, forced migration, and ethnic/cultural erasure imposed on them by their post-war colonisers.
.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523688487265787906.html
It's a bit of a bastard when things don't work out quite the way you thought they would, eh.
And the Ukrainians suffered more than most as they were living in the area that much of the fighting took place in and which was occupied for a couple of years by the Nazis.
Stalin genocided 5 million Ukrainians in the early 1930s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
Not that they thank the US that provided Russia with vast amounts of equipment including over 11000 planes and 6000 tanks.
And for all that ant-Nazi talk from Russia, the Russians were very cosy with the Nazis at the start of the war.
When you mention allies of the Russian people do you mean Ukrainians?
Hitler started off by attacking Russia. I don't think he was thinking of attacking the British and French until Chamberlain declared war. The pact with Russia came about because he realized he would have deal with Western Europe first. Stalin probably went along with it because the respite gave him a chance sort out his own defenses. He probably guessed that Hitler would probably renege.
Hitler started off by attacking Russia.
You should do a little reading, friend.
The invasion of Poland (1 September – 6 October 1939) was a joint attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany, the Slovak Republic, and the Soviet Union; which marked the beginning of World War II.
Great news from Bakhmut, the Ulrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has apparently countrer-attacked and driven the Russians back 2.6km on a 3km front, a big advance in the context of the fighting there.
I mentioned the unit because it is a very interesting and a very powerful one. Formed from Azov units it is basically a fully mechanised reinforced brigade of three infantry and one tank battalion plus one each of an artillery, drone, and combat engineer battalion.
Twitter video shows close tank/infantry coooperation in a combined arms assault, which indicates the unit has benefited from western training. There are heaps and heaps of dead Russians in the imagery. Just lately a lot of video and still imagery showing very large numbers of Russian KIA have been showing up online, perhaps indicating the Ukrainians are not only inflicting very heavy losses on the Russian forces but defeating them as well and seizing/retaining control of the battle zone.
If one well trained and equipped brigade can rout the Wagner forces so thoroughly in a local counter-attack, that has got to be an encouraging sign.
US Imperialist and NATO backed…
Great news from Bakhmut indeed, and given UA has been conservative in releasing information, potentially even better news than it seems
Read something awhile ago about a NATO peer to peer based estimate that Poots needs 1900 troops /kilometre to hold a fortified front against mechanised and tank divisions that can choose to attack anywhere along the 800 kilometre front.
The Russian have built multiple lines of defense in the occupied regions along the expected axis of any Ukrainian offensive. These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefileds, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers – especially Russian airpower, which the Ukrainians have no answer – to intervene.
The outcome is not certain at all.
The issue for the Russians is manpower. To effectively defend against an attack that the Ukrainians are looking like putting together requires sufficient manpower in an area of the frontlines of 30 km of around 50 to 90 thousand troops. They can do this in upward of 90 to 100 km of the front. Unfortunately for them they need to do so for 500 km unless they pick exactly the spot the Ukrainians will focus upon.
I thought Ukraine should ask the Finnish if they could enter Russia via Karelia – encircle St Petersburg – and then negotiate.
Well, the Fins did oblige NATO with another 1,340 kilometers of border to encircle Russia…
" These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefields, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers"
That sounds rather like the French intentions when they built the Maginot line back before WW 2. How did that work out?
Nothing like the Maginot line, a closer analogy would be the field works built by the Soviets at Kursk or possibly the Hindenburg line in WW1. The difference with Kursk is the Soviets deployed 1,900,000 men over a 260km front, and the Hindenburg line was 140km long and manned by 20 divisions, around 350-400,000 men.
Yes, I saw that. Some rather graphic footage. But, good to see the success.
I have thought for awhile that Bakhmut would be a good place to launch a counter offensive for several reasons:
Firstly, the Russians are on attack, so won't tend to be as well dug in.
Secondly, there is a good chance for Ukraine to do a pincer movement by attacking from either side of the flanks, and effectively encircling a lot of Russian and Wagner soldiers.
Update: this Ukrainian attack saw the combat debut of the Bradley IFV. At least a pair of them were involved and the destroyed at least four BMPs with ease. The BMP is completely outclassed by the Bradley.
Even if the medical establishment refrain from to doing so, eventually the insurance companies will objectively assess risk:
https://genderclinicnews.substack.com/p/exposed
The risks to the insurer are completely different to any medical risks to the people treated by private physicians. The insurer’s decision was purely commercial and protecting the business, if that’s what you mean with “objectively”.
kind of like with climate change. The insurance companies see the writing on the wall before the general public or the professions/industries.
They are socialising the losses/risks to state-funded clinics and hospitals. It is purely a commercial decision. In Oregon, they went the other way, as per the article.
well, yes, obviously the insurance company's motivation is commercial, but the basis for that decision is complex and important social and medical issues. There's an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the overmedicalisation of teens and children. Likewise with climate.
In Oregon the state is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures. In Australia the insurer is withdrawing cover for surgeons if they are involved in claims from surgery that leaves detrans people with permanent disability (sued or prosecuted, I'm unclear from the article). Two different kinds of insurance.
The former is ideological against evidence and safe practice. Good to see detransition surgery covered, but it's pretty fucked up to enforce a questionable system and then pay for remedial surgery to try and mitigate the entirely predictable mistakes and damage. My guess is the state is overriding the insurance sector's commercial motivations.
The latter is the insurance company having watched what is happening with both detrans legal cases internationally, as well as research.
I think that both Molly and you are conflating different types of risks involved in medical transition for minors. The insurer's decision is based on the risk of legal liability for potential claims arising from unhappy or harmed patients who may sue for malpractice or negligence. This risk is influenced by the strength of evidence for the safety and efficacy of the treatments, the quality of informed consent obtained from the patients and their parents, and the availability of alternative options for addressing gender dysphoria. The insurer's decision is not based on the risk of medical harm to the patients themselves, which is a separate issue that should be evaluated by qualified health professionals on a case-by-case basis.
You also said that Oregon is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures, but this is not entirely correct. The State of Oregon is requiring insurers to cover gender-affirming treatments that are deemed medically necessary by a health care provider, which may include cosmetic services or revisions to prior treatments. This does not mean that insurers have to cover any procedure that a patient requests, but rather that they have to follow the professional judgment of the provider. This is different from Australia, where the insurer is withdrawing cover for doctors who assess or initiate gender transition for patients under 18, regardless of their professional judgment or the hospital setting. In effect, the Australian insurer is removing the ability of doctors to act on sound clinical judgement.
Yes, I agree with you that there is an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the over-medicalisation of teens and children, but I also think that there is a danger in relying on insurance companies to determine the standard of care for complex and controversial medical issues. Insurance companies are not neutral judges of scientific evidence or ethical principles; they are profit-driven entities that may have ulterior motives or conflicts of interest. They may also be influenced by political or social pressures, such as transphobic backlash or litigation threats. It seems to me that this might be another cynical ploy in yet another culture war (or is it just one big one?), which is why some appear to be rejoicing at this decision. Only more independent research and better guidelines for health professionals and patients is going to lead to better options for treatment, which includes psychological treatment.
We've seen this with earthquake cover in Wellington, where properties are unable to get cover, if they are not up to Govt standards. It's an issue with apartments in particular (the complication of strata title, as well as costs being beyond the ability of some residents to pay).
We're starting to see it with climate risk insurance.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/131169361/owners-of-floodprone-homes-will-pay-more-for-insurance
And, IMO, the sooner the better. Wealthy people can strong-arm the council with constant legal challenges to get to build what they want to, where they want to. They have no leverage over insurers. If they don't find the risk acceptable, they won't touch it with a barge pole.
Fair enough. Sensible…..enforces, hopefully, a period of what I call 'watchful waiting' until the person is 18 & over. The rush to transition and also the 'contagion' whereby groups of younger ones find a need to transition may abate by that stage with the move to new friends, moving on, time…….
To me it doesn't matter how a slow down occurs, whether by sensible society moves or by a withdrawing of insurance cover as long as the current madness is slowed.
Quote from the article
‘A physician who follows the gender clinic controversy told GCN he believed “this whole treatment area [of medicalised gender change for minors] has gone ahead without adequate evidence of, firstly, efficacy, and, secondly, safety’.
There is good dicussion in the article about the concept that this withdrawal of cover may force the consideration of requests to a multi group of specialists in a hospital setting. This can often include psychiatric help which has been lacking up until now.
Jordan Peterson who has not been my flavour of the month, has really risen in my estimation with his interviews drawing on his professional knowledge of the mental health and consent aspects.
The insurer is simply cutting its business risks it’s exposed to, it says so in the article. Anyway:
Your hopeful wish for 'watchful waiting' might be granted, especially when other insurers follow suit.
Yes the business is cutting its risks and you could say that this is because gender affirmation by chemicals designed to treat prostate cancer etcplus cross hormones, or 'heroic' ((meaning anything but) surgery as penises are fashioned out of forearms, made into vaginas, unnecessary hysterectomies and breast removals are done) is a risky business without much of a scientific or medical backing behind it.
The company would have thin grounds on which to support a member who may be taken to court.
To me it does not matter where the stopping comes from….having insurers cut back on costs for claiming and meeting litigation costs cases & the consequent restricting of access is as good a way as any.
Actually there is a lack of data, full stop, worldwide let alone 'good' data. An example is in Sweden which has pulled back on hormonal interventions…
https://segm.org/segm-summary-sweden-prioritizes-therapy-curbs-hormones-for-gender-dysphoric-youth
…
I think Finland & France have too.
I'm no fan of Greenwald but this is damn tough.
Awe Glenn taku arohanui kia koe me to whanau i tenei pouritanga. Kia kaha, kia maia, kia manawanui.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/david-miranda-brazilian-congressman-and-husband-of-glenn-greenwald-dies-at-37-after-9-month-icu-battle/ar-AA1aWV84
When RWNJ's take over.
Teachers grew particularly alarmed early this year when word spread that Ken Witt, the new superintendent, did not plan to reapply for grants that covered the salaries of counselors and social workers.
At Gateway Elementary School in March, Witt told staff members he prioritized academic achievement, not students’ emotions. “We are not the department of health and human services,” he said, as teachers angrily objected, according to two recordings of the meeting made by staff members and shared with NBC News.
Someone in the meeting asked if taxpayers would get a say in these changes, and Witt said that they already did — when they elected the school board.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/woodland-park-colorado-school-board-conservatives-rcna83311
Wow!
Not surprising the Bible makes an appearance in that particular little corner of looneyville. The surprise is the district superintendent is Ken Witt. 'Frank' would've suited him better then he officially could have been 'F Witt.'
(Board meetings go on line. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R5eyqjK0po)