The numbers suggest that Trump's support is pretty firm around the 42-45% mark. Good news is that the more he gets into legal trouble, the more that number becomes a ceiling rather than a floor.
Something that isn't mentioned very often amongst all these polls showing support for trump at alarming (to many) levels amongst Republicans..is that neither Republicans nor democrats decide american elections..
Those who pick the president are the third leg..the independents..
From memory registered Republicans are about 25% of voters…
(So trump's support is actually 40+% of 25% of actual voters..meh..!)
And he had his share of support from those independents when elected…but for some time now trump's support amongst independents has tanked…
So (to me) the idea of trump getting the republican nomination..is just another meh..!..and will guarantee a democrat+independents victory..
And all these media stories about trump's support are essentially alarmist bullshit-clickbait if used as a marker to him getting the job again.
(nb:..the above derives from my general knowledge/memories from studying the american political system..and I am just trying to tell those possibly fretting over those alarmist poll-squealings from the media…and the prospect of the orange clown getting another go…to just go meh..!..)
I thought Biden was an excellent candidate last time from everyone of either party who put their names forward. Repairing Trump's damage required someone with vast institutional knowledge, and Biden was the best person for that job in my view. Decades in the Senate and 8 years as VP is not exactly a common CV. Given the difficulties in Congress that are usually underappreciated by most, he's done about as much as anyone was likely to.
That said, the system is so different compared to here, you can't really compare them fairly. Conservative Christians are much bigger part of the electoral base than here, and the Republican Party decided to welcome them in decades ago. The country is huge and there are more powers and politics at city, county and state level, so the state parties are a lot more important than the regions are in NZ. Both major US parties have independent state parties, and often state politics means that US party is a pretty broad church with a lot more overlap than you would think from a presidential campaign.
If Democrats want to be electable in places like Utah or Texas, for example, they have to be closer to the Republican Party in those areas which means pretty conservative politics at the national level. In somewhere like Vermont where Bernie Sanders is one of their Senators, they have a Republican governor, but to get elected, he has to be closer to the local Democratic Party which means pretty liberal politics at the national level.
Ideally someone else could pick it up, but it's nearly unheard of for a current president to not be renominated if they put their name forward. https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-presidents-primary-challenges/ has the 5 occasions in the 234 years of presidencies – the most recent is Chester A Arthur in 1884. The only elected president not to be renominated after seeking reelection was Franklin Pierce in 1856 – the other 4 were Vice-Presidents who replaced presidents who had died during office.
What does it say about the GOP and it's rump base that the only candidate they can muster is a superannuiated sex offender and insurrectionist?
I read at salon.com that this ruling – and Trump's other upcoming legal problems – may act as a bizarre incentive to keep him in the presidential race, since the DOJ will always go softly softly on any presidential candidate.
Biden's unfavourability rating is almost entirely driven by concerns over his age, he moves like a very old man and he makes very old man mistakes when talking. As long as his campaign can assure voters he is up to the job he'll easily defeat Trump.
Luxon has just ruled out working with the Maori Party on ZB.
Whatever anyone says about the decision, I don't think there is any doubt it is a politically astute move.
Given that Labour is not really in a position where it can do the same, there is a fairly clear choice for voters now. Especially since there is quite a furore over co-governance at the moment.
Don't know about "astute". Blind Freddy could see that it's the best thing to say – because irritation with TMP and Maori more generally is a core characteristic of your base. And also present at lower intensities outside your base.
Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office. Luxon would most likely warble away about circumstances bring different back then – at which point a decent interviewer would nail him to the floor by asking "so if circumstances change you might work with them?' Then the vacuous, prattling burbler would cut to his prepared script about "wasteful spending" as a way of escape – and a decent interviewer would cut him short. But hey, journalists, who needs real ones?
Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office.
I guess you have to take the politics of each situation in its context. I think what Key did was a forward thinking move at the time. He didn't actually need TMP when elected. But could see that having them inside the tent could be useful in future elections where he might need their support.
In this case, I have my doubts that TMP would go with National anyway even if that option was available. So, I don't think there is too much downside for National in ruling them out. And, the politics of the situation are that Labour really can't afford to do the same. So, I think TMP has become a bit of a ball and chain for Labour now.
It will be interesting to see if National will rule NZ First out as well. This could really mess with voter's heads if they have to consider National/Act versus a possible Labour/Greens/TMP/NZ First coalition.
And the answer to that question is "If the circumstances change, of course I might change with them. If TMP's leadership and policies were to change, then there is a chance to talk with them. But under the current circumstances – we are ruling them out."
I think TMP is a lot more radical than it was back in the Key times as well.
I think in the end this will be bad for them. Because, it will end up making them politically untouchable so long as there is wide spread resistance amongst voters to the co-governance concept.
So, if National wins this time around, I think Labour will have to rule out TMP in future elections due to a coalition involving TMP being seen as politically toxic for centre voters.
So, they may well end up having a presence in parliament, but never being in the position to achieve anything for their cause.
It will be interesting to see if National rules out NZ First as well. NZ First have already ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, then there isn't much point in a protest vote to NZ First. Especially since National has already stolen NZ First's thunder by ruling out TMP.
Not much choice really, TMP base left them before because they supported National too much, to the degree that TMP lost all their MPs. Politically, TMP aren't really in a position to support National on much other than case-by-case legislation.
That is why I think ruling NZ First out is also a good idea. As I said, NZ First has ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, there isn't any point voting for them.
Oh well, maybe the cholesterol overload will get to Mr Hoggard before he does too much damage! Bacon & eggs for breakfast, T-bone & chips for lunch, Roasted home kill beast for dinner…
Fed Farmers and their members have long been the filthiest of the dirty filthy tories when it comes down to it–profiting most of all from stolen and dubiously acquired land. They are in denial of post colonial fallout as they pour nitrates into the nation’s waterways via animal excretions from over fertilised industrial dairying operations.
For a Fed Farmers person to go ACT shows the desperation, the profitability crisis–plus they need cheap migrant labour and cruel live animal exporting and mud bog “winter farming” to keep their rate of profit up. Farmers crisis is a capitalist crisis.
It would be great to see the progressive farmer and horticulture groups coalesce together more often. Federated Farmers don't represent all farmers, and I sneakily suspect they don't represent a majority of them.
But we won't find that out until more progressive producers are prepared to poke their head above the parapet to face the next version of Howl of a Protest.
Fed Farmers is being outflanked on the right by Groundswell, which poses huge problems for the historic alliance between farmers and urban business that is the foundation of the National party.
The self-radicalisation of the right means there is a real possibility of ACT/Groundswell vying to replace National/Fed Farmers as the majoritry right wing political rural/urban alliance.
We have already seen chaos in Auckland resulting from climate change. And we can see the Nat-ACT boys intend to do nothing about emissions but whistle in the dark and wait for technology to turn up that will allow their farming & business backers to carry on exactly as they are – plus (maybe) some piss-weak concessions to adaptation.
When we see those things, it's completely clear who the real coalition of chaos is.
Well, the right don't like compromise or community, and see that as communism, so no real surprise that they and you? don't like listening to differing points of view.
They describe, by creating the "chaos" meme, any MMP coalition of 'other' groups, which are not Nats or Act.
Luxon thinks we only have one vote apparently, when clearly under MMP we have two.
There is a disconnect from community showing and a whiff of ‘my way’.imo.
My partner says that there are growers and farmers that are more 21st century and pro environment but they tend to be smaller producers, and some of them do get covered on the venerable “Country Calendar” these days. I have met a number in the Far North, which is a smallish, long geographic area when we do local markets so not so many baddies perhaps up here. But mid North down…
Not the first Fed worthy to have a go with ACT. Don Nicolson was ACT candidate in Clutha Southland in 2011 and 2014. He was #3 on ACT list in 2011 and #5 in 2014.
In both elections Nicolson's personal vote far exceeded ACT's party vote in the electorate.
OK it's a very different ACT party now but I think this illustrates that coming from a Fed Farmers presidency doesn't automatically translate to general election success.
Doubtful Hoggard could be as barking as Nicolson. But ya never know…
09:11, Jun 30 2011
Powerful people are manipulating us for their own ends, Don Nicolson believes. And the only way to defeat them is to allow free enterprise to have free rein.
The retiring president of Federated Farmers is convinced New Zealand is a victim of international job-creation schemes.
"There are senior people who absolutely know what they're doing," he says. "They've created industries by building complexity into everything. Every time they write something down – when it goes from the head to the paper – that's when we're lost."
Remember, tankies, a falling out between thieves delivered the USSR as an accidental ally to the West. Stalin had happily allied with Hitler to over run and divvy up large parts of Eastern Europe and provided fuel and raw materials for Hitler's invasions of Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the fuel to bomb London.
Anti Sovietism remains the territory of vacillators and cowards. Much of the world would be have been “eating Bratwurst for breakfast” if not for the Russian people and their allies of WWII.
I'm sure tens of millions of Eastern Europeans were grateful to endure the controlling oppression, forced migration, and ethnic/cultural erasure imposed on them by their post-war colonisers.
You cannot understand why Victory Day is the most significant secular holiday in Russia without getting a sense of just how much the Soviet Union lost in the Nazi-Soviet War.
And the Ukrainians suffered more than most as they were living in the area that much of the fighting took place in and which was occupied for a couple of years by the Nazis.
Hitler started off by attacking Russia. I don't think he was thinking of attacking the British and French until Chamberlain declared war. The pact with Russia came about because he realized he would have deal with Western Europe first. Stalin probably went along with it because the respite gave him a chance sort out his own defenses. He probably guessed that Hitler would probably renege.
Theinvasion of Poland(1 September – 6 October 1939) was a joint attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany, the Slovak Republic, and the Soviet Union; which marked the beginning of World War II.
Great news from Bakhmut, the Ulrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has apparently countrer-attacked and driven the Russians back 2.6km on a 3km front, a big advance in the context of the fighting there.
I mentioned the unit because it is a very interesting and a very powerful one. Formed from Azov units it is basically a fully mechanised reinforced brigade of three infantry and one tank battalion plus one each of an artillery, drone, and combat engineer battalion.
Twitter video shows close tank/infantry coooperation in a combined arms assault, which indicates the unit has benefited from western training. There are heaps and heaps of dead Russians in the imagery. Just lately a lot of video and still imagery showing very large numbers of Russian KIA have been showing up online, perhaps indicating the Ukrainians are not only inflicting very heavy losses on the Russian forces but defeating them as well and seizing/retaining control of the battle zone.
If one well trained and equipped brigade can rout the Wagner forces so thoroughly in a local counter-attack, that has got to be an encouraging sign.
Read something awhile ago about a NATO peer to peer based estimate that Poots needs 1900 troops /kilometre to hold a fortified front against mechanised and tank divisions that can choose to attack anywhere along the 800 kilometre front.
The Russian have built multiple lines of defense in the occupied regions along the expected axis of any Ukrainian offensive. These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefileds, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers – especially Russian airpower, which the Ukrainians have no answer – to intervene.
The issue for the Russians is manpower. To effectively defend against an attack that the Ukrainians are looking like putting together requires sufficient manpower in an area of the frontlines of 30 km of around 50 to 90 thousand troops. They can do this in upward of 90 to 100 km of the front. Unfortunately for them they need to do so for 500 km unless they pick exactly the spot the Ukrainians will focus upon.
" These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefields, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers"
That sounds rather like the French intentions when they built the Maginot line back before WW 2. How did that work out?
Nothing like the Maginot line, a closer analogy would be the field works built by the Soviets at Kursk or possibly the Hindenburg line in WW1. The difference with Kursk is the Soviets deployed 1,900,000 men over a 260km front, and the Hindenburg line was 140km long and manned by 20 divisions, around 350-400,000 men.
Yes, I saw that. Some rather graphic footage. But, good to see the success.
I have thought for awhile that Bakhmut would be a good place to launch a counter offensive for several reasons:
Firstly, the Russians are on attack, so won't tend to be as well dug in.
Secondly, there is a good chance for Ukraine to do a pincer movement by attacking from either side of the flanks, and effectively encircling a lot of Russian and Wagner soldiers.
Update: this Ukrainian attack saw the combat debut of the Bradley IFV. At least a pair of them were involved and the destroyed at least four BMPs with ease. The BMP is completely outclassed by the Bradley.
Australian doctors in private practice may come under pressure to cease involvement in medicalised gender change of minors following a landmark insurance decision that stresses the significant risk of litigation.
“In response to the high risk of claims arising from irreversible treatments provided to those who medically and surgically transition as children and adolescents, [medical indemnity insurer] MDA National is restricting cover for practitioners in private practice,” the insurer says in an email to members with this exposure.
No payment
The MDA National email to doctors seeing gender dysphoric youth says: “[From July 1, we] will not cover you or make a payment when the claim against you arises in any way out of your assessment that a patient under the age of 18 years is suitable for gender transition.”
The insurer, which has 54,000 health professional members, also says it will no longer cover doctors if they face a claim after “initiating prescribing of gender affirming hormones for any patient under the age of 18 years.
The risks to the insurer are completely different to any medical risks to the people treated by private physicians. The insurer’s decision was purely commercial and protecting the business, if that’s what you mean with “objectively”.
They are socialising the losses/risks to state-funded clinics and hospitals. It is purely a commercial decision. In Oregon, they went the other way, as per the article.
well, yes, obviously the insurance company's motivation is commercial, but the basis for that decision is complex and important social and medical issues. There's an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the overmedicalisation of teens and children. Likewise with climate.
In Oregon the state is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures. In Australia the insurer is withdrawing cover for surgeons if they are involved in claims from surgery that leaves detrans people with permanent disability (sued or prosecuted, I'm unclear from the article). Two different kinds of insurance.
The former is ideological against evidence and safe practice. Good to see detransition surgery covered, but it's pretty fucked up to enforce a questionable system and then pay for remedial surgery to try and mitigate the entirely predictable mistakes and damage. My guess is the state is overriding the insurance sector's commercial motivations.
The latter is the insurance company having watched what is happening with both detrans legal cases internationally, as well as research.
I think that both Molly and you are conflating different types of risks involved in medical transition for minors. The insurer's decision is based on the risk of legal liability for potential claims arising from unhappy or harmed patients who may sue for malpractice or negligence. This risk is influenced by the strength of evidence for the safety and efficacy of the treatments, the quality of informed consent obtained from the patients and their parents, and the availability of alternative options for addressing gender dysphoria. The insurer's decision is not based on the risk of medical harm to the patients themselves, which is a separate issue that should be evaluated by qualified health professionals on a case-by-case basis.
You also said that Oregon is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures, but this is not entirely correct. The State of Oregon is requiring insurers to cover gender-affirming treatments that are deemed medically necessary by a health care provider, which may include cosmetic services or revisions to prior treatments. This does not mean that insurers have to cover any procedure that a patient requests, but rather that they have to follow the professional judgment of the provider. This is different from Australia, where the insurer is withdrawing cover for doctors who assess or initiate gender transition for patients under 18, regardless of their professional judgment or the hospital setting. In effect, the Australian insurer is removing the ability of doctors to act on sound clinical judgement.
Yes, I agree with you that there is an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the over-medicalisation of teens and children, but I also think that there is a danger in relying on insurance companies to determine the standard of care for complex and controversial medical issues. Insurance companies are not neutral judges of scientific evidence or ethical principles; they are profit-driven entities that may have ulterior motives or conflicts of interest. They may also be influenced by political or social pressures, such as transphobic backlash or litigation threats. It seems to me that this might be another cynical ploy in yet another culture war (or is it just one big one?), which is why some appear to be rejoicing at this decision. Only more independent research and better guidelines for health professionals and patients is going to lead to better options for treatment, which includes psychological treatment.
We've seen this with earthquake cover in Wellington, where properties are unable to get cover, if they are not up to Govt standards. It's an issue with apartments in particular (the complication of strata title, as well as costs being beyond the ability of some residents to pay).
We're starting to see it with climate risk insurance.
And, IMO, the sooner the better. Wealthy people can strong-arm the council with constant legal challenges to get to build what they want to, where they want to. They have no leverage over insurers. If they don't find the risk acceptable, they won't touch it with a barge pole.
Fair enough. Sensible…..enforces, hopefully, a period of what I call 'watchful waiting' until the person is 18 & over. The rush to transition and also the 'contagion' whereby groups of younger ones find a need to transition may abate by that stage with the move to new friends, moving on, time…….
To me it doesn't matter how a slow down occurs, whether by sensible society moves or by a withdrawing of insurance cover as long as the current madness is slowed.
Quote from the article
‘A physician who follows the gender clinic controversy told GCN he believed “this whole treatment area [of medicalised gender change for minors] has gone ahead without adequate evidence of, firstly, efficacy, and, secondly, safety’.
There is good dicussion in the article about the concept that this withdrawal of cover may force the consideration of requests to a multi group of specialists in a hospital setting. This can often include psychiatric help which has been lacking up until now.
Jordan Peterson who has not been my flavour of the month, has really risen in my estimation with his interviews drawing on his professional knowledge of the mental health and consent aspects.
The insurer is simply cutting its business risks it’s exposed to, it says so in the article. Anyway:
“We consider it appropriate that the assessment and initial prescribing for patients transitioning under the age of 18 years occurs with the support and management of a multi-disciplinary team in a hospital setting.”
[…]
If MDA National stands firm against any transgender activist backlash, and the remaining medical indemnity funds adopt similar carve-outs, the effect would be to concentrate the legal risk in state-funded children’s hospital gender clinics.
[…]
There is no good Australian data on the extent of medical transition of minors in the private health sector, but specialist gender clinics in public children’s hospitals have long waiting lists, and trans rights activists have campaigned to mainstream hormonal interventions through local family doctors and hospitals.
Your hopeful wish for 'watchful waiting' might be granted, especially when other insurers follow suit.
Yes the business is cutting its risks and you could say that this is because gender affirmation by chemicals designed to treat prostate cancer etcplus cross hormones, or 'heroic' ((meaning anything but) surgery as penises are fashioned out of forearms, made into vaginas, unnecessary hysterectomies and breast removals are done) is a risky business without much of a scientific or medical backing behind it.
The company would have thin grounds on which to support a member who may be taken to court.
To me it does not matter where the stopping comes from….having insurers cut back on costs for claiming and meeting litigation costs cases & the consequent restricting of access is as good a way as any.
There is no good Australian data on the extent of medical transition of minors in the private health sector,
Actually there is a lack of data, full stop, worldwide let alone 'good' data. An example is in Sweden which has pulled back on hormonal interventions…
Following a comprehensive review of evidence, the NBHW concluded that the evidence base for hormonal interventions for gender-dysphoric youth is of low quality, and that hormonal treatments may carry risks.
…
In light of above limitations in the evidence base, the ongoing identity formation in youth, and in view of the fact that gender transition has pervasive and lifelong consequences, the NBHW has concluded that, at present, the risks of hormonal interventions for gender dysphoric youth outweigh the potential benefits.
Teachers grew particularly alarmed early this year when word spread that Ken Witt, the new superintendent, did not plan to reapply for grants that covered the salaries of counselors and social workers.
At Gateway Elementary School in March, Witt told staff members he prioritized academic achievement, not students’ emotions. “We are not the department of health and human services,” he said, as teachers angrily objected, according to two recordings of the meeting made by staff members and shared with NBC News.
Someone in the meeting asked if taxpayers would get a say in these changes, and Witt said that they already did — when they elected the school board.
Not surprising the Bible makes an appearance in that particular little corner of looneyville. The surprise is the district superintendent is Ken Witt. 'Frank' would've suited him better then he officially could have been 'F Witt.'
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So, having teased it last week, Andrew Little has announced he will run for mayor of Wellington. On RNZ, he's saying its all about services - "fixing the pipes, making public transport cheaper, investing in parks, swimming pools and libraries, and developing more housing". Meanwhile, to the readers of the ...
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?W.B. Yeats, The Second Coming, 1921ALL OVER THE WORLD, devout Christians will be reaching for their bibles, reading and re-reading Revelation 13:16-17. For the benefit of all you non-Christians out there, these are the verses describing ...
Give me what I want, what I really, really want: And what India really wants from New Zealand isn’t butter or cheese, but a radical relaxation of the rules controlling Indian immigration.WHAT DOES INDIA WANT from New Zealand? Not our dairy products, that’s for sure, it’s got plenty of those. ...
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
Yesterday, 5,500 senior doctors across Aotearoa New Zealand voted overwhelmingly to strike for a day.This is the first time in New Zealand ASMS members have taken strike action for 24 hours.They are asking the government tofund them and account for resource shortfalls.Vacancies are critical - 45-50% in some regions.The ...
For years and years and years, David Seymour and his posse of deluded neoliberals have been preaching their “tough on crime” gospel to voters. Harsher sentences! More police! Lock ‘em up! Throw away the key. But when it comes to their own, namely former Act Party president Tim Jago, a ...
Judith Collins is a seasoned master at political hypocrisy. As New Zealand’s Defence Minister, she's recently been banging the war drum, announcing a jaw-dropping $12 billion boost to the defence budget over the next four years, all while the coalition of chaos cries poor over housing, health, and education.Apparently, there’s ...
I’m on the London Overground watching what the phones people are holding are doing to their faces: The man-bun guy who could not be less impressed by what he's seeing but cannot stop reading; the woman who's impatient for a response; the one who’s frowning; the one who’s puzzled; the ...
You don't have no prescriptionYou don't have to take no pillsYou don't have no prescriptionAnd baby don't have to take no pillsIf you come to see meDoctor Brown will cure your ills.Songwriters: Waymon Glasco.Dr Luxon. Image: David and Grok.First, they came for the Bottom FeedersAnd I did not speak outBecause ...
The Health Minister says the striking doctors already “well remunerated,” and are “walking away from” and “hurting” their patients. File photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from our political economy on Wednesday, April 16:Simeon Brown has attacked1 doctors striking for more than a 1.5% pay rise as already “well remunerated,” even ...
The time is ripe for Australia and South Korea to strengthen cooperation in space, through embarking on joint projects and initiatives that offer practical outcomes for both countries. This is the finding of a new ...
Hi,When Trump raised tariffs against China to 145%, he destined many small businesses to annihilation. The Daily podcast captured the mass chaos by zooming in and talking to one person, Beth Benike, a small-business owner who will likely lose her home very soon.She pointed out that no, she wasn’t surprised ...
National’s handling of inflation and the cost-of-living crisis is an utter shambles and a gutless betrayal of every Kiwi scraping by. The Coalition of Chaos Ministers strut around preaching about how effective their policies are, but really all they're doing is perpetuating a cruel and sick joke of undelivered promises, ...
Most people wouldn't have heard of a little worm like Rhys Williams, a so-called businessman and former NZ First member, who has recently been unmasked as the venomous troll behind a relentless online campaign targeting Green Party MP Benjamin Doyle.According to reports, Williams has been slinging mud at Doyle under ...
Illustration credit: Jonathan McHugh (New Statesman)The other day, a subscriber said they were unsubscribing because they needed “some good news”.I empathised. Don’t we all.I skimmed a NZME article about the impacts of tariffs this morning with analysis from Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr. Kerr, their Chief Economist, suggested another recession is the ...
Let’s assume, as prudence demands we assume, that the United States will not at any predictable time go back to being its old, reliable self. This means its allies must be prepared indefinitely to lean ...
Over the last three rather tumultuous US trade policy weeks, I’ve read these four books. I started with Irwin (whose book had sat on my pile for years, consulted from time to time but not read) in a week of lots of flights and hanging around airports/hotels, and then one ...
Indonesia could do without an increase in military spending that the Ministry of Defence is proposing. The country has more pressing issues, including public welfare and human rights. Moreover, the transparency and accountability to justify ...
Former Hutt City councillor Chris Milne has slithered back into the spotlight, not as a principled dissenter, but as a vindictive puppeteer of digital venom. The revelations from a recent court case paint a damning portrait of a man whose departure from Hutt City Council in 2022 was merely the ...
That's the conclusion of a report into security risks against Green MP Benjamin Doyle, in the wake of Winston Peters' waging a homophobic hate-campaign against them: GRC’s report said a “hostility network” of politicians, commentators, conspiracy theorists, alternative media outlets and those opposed to the rainbow community had produced ...
That's the conclusion of a report into security risks against Green MP Benjamin Doyle, in the wake of Winston Peters' waging a homophobic hate-campaign against them: GRC’s report said a “hostility network” of politicians, commentators, conspiracy theorists, alternative media outlets and those opposed to the rainbow community had produced ...
National Party MP Hamish Campbell’s ties to the secretive Two By Twos "church" raises serious questions that are not being answered. This shadowy group, currently being investigated by the FBI for numerous cases of child abuse, hides behind a facade of faith while Campbell dodges scrutiny, claiming it’s a “private ...
National Party MP Hamish Campbell’s ties to the secretive Two By Twos "church" raises serious questions that are not being answered. This shadowy group, currently being investigated by the FBI for numerous cases of child abuse, hides behind a facade of faith while Campbell dodges scrutiny, claiming it’s a “private ...
The economy is not doing what it was supposed to when PM Christopher Luxon said in January it was ‘going for growth.’ Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāLong stories short from our political economy on Tuesday, April 15:New Zealand’s economic recovery is stalling, according to business surveys, retail spending and ...
This is a guest post by Lewis Creed, managing editor of the University of Auckland student publication Craccum, which is currently running a campaign for a safer Symonds Street in the wake of a horrific recent crash.The post has two parts: 1) Craccum’s original call for safety (6 ...
NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff has published an opinion piece which makes the case for a different approach to economic development, as proposed in the CTU’s Aotearoa Reimagined programme. The number of people studying to become teachers has jumped after several years of low enrolment. The coalition has directed Health New ...
The growth of China’s AI industry gives it great influence over emerging technologies. That creates security risks for countries using those technologies. So, Australia must foster its own domestic AI industry to protect its interests. ...
Unfortunately we have another National Party government in power at the moment, and as a consequence, another economic dumpster fire taking hold. Inflation’s hurting Kiwis, and instead of providing relief, National is fiddling while wallets burn.Prime Minister Chris Luxon's response is a tired remix of tax cuts for the rich ...
Girls who are boys who like boys to be girlsWho do boys like they're girls, who do girls like they're boysAlways should be someone you really loveSongwriters: Damon Albarn / Graham Leslie Coxon / Alexander Rowntree David / Alexander James Steven.Last month, I wrote about the Birds and Bees being ...
Australia needs to reevaluate its security priorities and establish a more dynamic regulatory framework for cybersecurity. To advance in this area, it can learn from Britain’s Cyber Security and Resilience Bill, which presents a compelling ...
Deputy PM Winston Peters likes nothing more than to portray himself as the only wise old head while everyone else is losing theirs. Yet this time, his “old master” routine isn’t working. What global trade is experiencing is more than the usual swings and roundabouts of market sentiment. President Donald ...
President Trump’s hopes of ending the war in Ukraine seemed more driven by ego than realistic analysis. Professor Vladimir Brovkin’s latest video above highlights the internal conflicts within the USA, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine, which are currently hindering peace talks and clarity. Brovkin pointed out major contradictions within ...
In the cesspool that is often New Zealand’s online political discourse, few figures wield their influence as destructively as Ani O’Brien. Masquerading as a champion of free speech and women’s rights, O’Brien’s campaigns are a masterclass in bad faith, built on a foundation of lies, selective outrage, and a knack ...
The international challenge confronting Australia today is unparalleled, at least since the 1940s. It requires what the late Brendan Sargeant, a defence analyst, called strategic imagination. We need more than shrewd economic manoeuvring and a ...
This year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) will take place as a fully hybrid conference in both Vienna and online from April 27 to May 2. This year, I'll join the event on site in Vienna for the full week and I've already picked several sessions I plan ...
Here’s a book that looks not in at China but out from China. David Daokui Li’s China’s World View: Demystifying China to Prevent Global Conflict is a refreshing offering in that Li is very much ...
The New Zealand National Party has long mastered the art of crafting messaging that resonates with a large number of desperate, often white middle-class, voters. From their 2023 campaign mantra of “getting our country back on track” to promises of economic revival, safer streets, and better education, their rhetoric paints ...
A global contest of ideas is underway, and democracy as an ideal is at stake. Democracies must respond by lifting support for public service media with an international footprint. With the recent decision by the ...
It is almost six weeks since the shock announcement early on the afternoon of Wednesday 5 March that the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Adrian Orr, was resigning effective 31 March, and that in fact he had already left and an acting Governor was already in place. Orr had been ...
The PSA surveyed more than 900 of its members, with 55 percent of respondents saying AI is used at their place of work, despite most workers not being in trained in how to use the technology safely. Figures to be released on Thursday are expected to show inflation has risen ...
After stonewalling requests for information on boot camps, the Government has now offered up a blog post right before Easter weekend rather than provide clarity on the pilot. ...
More people could be harmed if Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey does not guarantee to protect patients and workers as the Police withdraw from supporting mental health call outs. ...
The Green Party recognises the extension of visa allowances for our Pacific whānau as a step in the right direction but continues to call for a Pacific Visa Waiver. ...
The Government yesterday released its annual child poverty statistics, and by its own admission, more tamariki across Aotearoa are now living in material hardship. ...
Today, Te Pāti Māori join the motu in celebration as the Treaty Principles Bill is voted down at its second reading. “From the beginning, this Bill was never welcome in this House,” said Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader, Rawiri Waititi. “Our response to the first reading was one of protest: protesting ...
The Green Party is proud to have voted down the Coalition Government’s Treaty Principles Bill, an archaic piece of legislation that sought to attack the nation’s founding agreement. ...
A Member’s Bill in the name of Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter which aims to stop coal mining, the Crown Minerals (Prohibition of Mining) Amendment Bill, has been pulled from Parliament’s ‘biscuit tin’ today. ...
Labour MP Kieran McAnulty’s Members Bill to make the law simpler and fairer for businesses operating on Easter, Anzac and Christmas Days has passed its first reading after a conscience vote in Parliament. ...
Nicola Willis continues to sit on her hands amid a global economic crisis, leaving the Reserve Bank to act for New Zealanders who are worried about their jobs, mortgages, and KiwiSaver. ...
Today, the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill has passed its third and final reading, but there is one more stage before it becomes law. The Governor-General must give their ‘Royal assent’ for any bill to become legally enforceable. This means that, even if a bill gets voted ...
Abortion care at Whakatāne Hospital has been quietly shelved, with patients told they will likely have to travel more than an hour to Tauranga to get the treatment they need. ...
Thousands of New Zealanders’ submissions are missing from the official parliamentary record because the National-dominated Justice Select Committee has rushed work on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Today’s announcement of 10 percent tariffs for New Zealand goods entering the United States is disappointing for exporters and consumers alike, with the long-lasting impact on prices and inflation still unknown. ...
The National Government’s choices have contributed to a slow-down in the building sector, as thousands of people have lost their jobs in construction. ...
Willie Apiata’s decision to hand over his Victoria Cross to the Minister for Veterans is a powerful and selfless act, made on behalf of all those who have served our country. ...
The Privileges Committee has denied fundamental rights to Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Rawiri Waititi and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, breaching their own standing orders, breaching principles of natural justice, and highlighting systemic prejudice and discrimination within our parliamentary processes. The three MPs were summoned to the privileges committee following their performance of a haka ...
April 1 used to be a day when workers could count on a pay rise with stronger support for those doing it tough, but that’s not the case under this Government. ...
Winston Peters is shopping for smaller ferries after Nicola Willis torpedoed the original deal, which would have delivered new rail enabled ferries next year. ...
The Government should work with other countries to press the Myanmar military regime to stop its bombing campaign especially while the country recovers from the devastating earthquake. ...
Last year, 20,000 observations of Christchurch species were made during the annual City Nature Challenge, a way for anyone to get involved in biodiversity. It’s back again this month. Even in suburbia, even on grey autumn weekends, there is biodiversity. You just need the time to look for it: to ...
Asia Pacific Report Peaceful protesters in Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest city Auckland held an Easter prayer vigil honouring Palestinian political prisoners and the sacrifice of thousands of innocent lives as relentless Israeli bombing of displaced Gazans in tents killed at least 92 people in two days. Organisers of the rally ...
ANALYSIS:By Ben Bohane This week Cambodia marks the 50th anniversary of the fall of Phnom Penh to the murderous Khmer Rouge, and Vietnam celebrates the fall of Saigon to North Vietnamese forces in April 1975. They are being commemorated very differently; after all, there’s nothing to celebrate in Cambodia. ...
By Gujari Singh in Washington The Trump administration has issued a new executive order opening up vast swathes of protected ocean to commercial exploitation, including areas within the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument. It allows commercial fishing in areas long considered off-limits due to their ecological significance — despite ...
New Zealand commemoration lead John McLeod said a small team, including members of the NZDF and the NZ Embassy, assisted in the covering up of remains that were exposed. ...
This Bill is a great opportunity to improve our system of government across all levels. Let’s make sure we get it right and give the public a say on a simple and enduring solution. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Nicholls, Senior Research Associate in Media and Communications, University of Sydney Tech giant Google has just suffered another legal blow in the United States, losing a landmark antitrust case. This follows on from the company’s loss in a similar case last ...
Paddy GowerAmanda Luxon. I mean what can you say. Easter is a good time to publish my latest reckons at Stuff because without exaggeration or making too much of things, Amanda Luxon walks among us like Jesus but probably with better shoes.Jesus healed. How good is that? It’s really good, ...
How can an afternoon be long when it starts at one o’clock and finishes at half past three? Beauden thought about that as he stood at the back of the classroom and looked through the large window to the upper grounds where his colleague Monty Spiers was taking a phys ed ...
Alex Casey delves into the enduring success of The Artist’s Way, a self-help book beloved by everyone from retirees to famous rappers. On the video call, my mum is gesticulating so wildly while recounting all her recent creative endeavours that she knocks her cup of tea over a work-in-progress jigsaw ...
Feijoa scholar Kate Evans reviews the dish everybody raves about at Metro’s 2024 restaurant of the year, Forest. People have been telling me I need to try the deep-fried feijoa dessert at Forest for about three years now. I’m embarrassed it took me this long, but it takes a lot ...
Chef, author and reality television judge Colin Fassnidge takes us through his life in television. Colin Fassnidge is a huge television fan. He watches every blockbuster TV series the moment it drops and scores every single show on his Instagram account. It’s a habit that recently caught the attention of ...
Why are shops on Parnell Road allowed to open on Easter Sunday? It’s all thanks to an obsolete rule from the 1970s that’s been ‘frozen in time’.Originally published in 2023.Under our current trading laws, most stores are required to stay closed on Good Friday and Easter Sunday (along ...
Yael Shochat, chef-owner of Auckland restaurant Ima Cuisine, shares the recipe for her hot cross buns – regularly voted among the best in the city.Originally published in 2019.HOT CROSS BUNSMakes 12You may use equal weights of pre-ground spices, but you’ll get a much better flavour if ...
Gràinne Moss knows she can’t tackle the final leg of one of the world’s toughest swimming challenges alone.In her quest to complete the Oceans Seven marathon challenge, 38 years after she began, she’s enlisted the help of two remarkable women – one barely out of her teens, and the other ...
By Susana Leiataua, RNZ National presenter There are calls for greater transparency about what the HMNZS Manawanui was doing before it sank in Samoa last October — including whether the New Zealand warship was performing specific security for King Charles and Queen Camilla. The Manawanui grounded on the reef off ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers ...
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 18, 2025. Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but they’re barely ahead in FreshwaterSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Sunrise on the Reaping by Suzanne Collins (Scholastic, $30) Haymitch’s Hunger Games. 2 Careless People: A ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Labor increased their lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put them ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers the ...
A new poem by Tusiata Avia. How to make a terrorist First make a whistling sound which is the sound of a bomb just before it lands on a house. Then make an exploding sound which is the sound of the bomb which kills a father, decapitates a mother, roasts ...
The top-rated Scrabble players in the country go head-to-head this Easter weekend. Watch games live from 9.30am on the stream below.How does it all work?The Masters is different to most Scrabble tournaments in that it’s invitational, open only to the top-rated players in the country. The ...
Books editor Claire Mabey appraises all the Austen-adapted films from 1990 onwards to separate the delightful from the duds.For the purists, read our ranking of Jane Austen’s novels here.It is a truth universally acknowledged that not everything is created equal. Since 1990 there have been 12 attempts to ...
To arrive through the heavy red door of Margot in Newtown is to be invited to the best dinner party in town, hosted by the best friends you haven’t yet made. Table Service is a column about food and hospitality in Wellington, written by Nick Iles.Hospitality is a term ...
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NONFICTION1 No Words for This by Ali Mau (HarperCollins, $39.99)A free copy of the author’s new memoir was up for grabs in last week’s giveaway contest. Readers were asked to share their feelings about Mau, a former broadcaster and one of the most powerful figures in the New Zealand #metoo ...
Analysis: The announcement last week that Colossal Biosciences in the USA had “de-extincted” the dire wolf, which was last seen 13,000 years ago, was reported worldwide.The three wolf pups generated equal parts fascination and widespread scientific criticism. But is this actually de-extinction, and what are the implications for the potential ...
We recommend the best – and longest – television series to watch this holiday weekend. As the Easter holiday weekend descends and the weather turns a little grim, many of us will turn to the trusty old television for comfort and entertainment. If you’re lucky, you’ll have some time over ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gode Bola, Lecturer in Hydrology, University of Kinshasa The April 2025 flooding disaster in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, wasn’t just about intense rainfall. It was a symptom of recent land use change which has occurred rapidly in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Peter Dutton, now seriously on the back foot, has made an extraordinarily big “aspirational” commitment at the back end of this campaign. He says he wants to see a move to indexing personal income ...
Essay by Keith Rankin. Operation Gomorrah may have been the most cynical event of World War Two (WW2). Not only did the name fully convey the intent of the war crimes about to be committed, it, also represented the single biggest 24-hour murder toll for the European war that I ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Tietz, Senior Lecturer in Industrial Design, UNSW Sydney A New South Wales Senate inquiry into public toilets is underway, looking into the provision, design and maintenance of public toilets across the state. Whenever I mention this inquiry, however, everyone nervously ...
Shrinking budgets and job insecurity means there are fewer opportunities for young journalists, and that’s bad news, especially in regional Australia, reports 360infoANALYSIS:By Jee Young Lee of the University of Canberra Australia risks losing a generation of young journalists, particularly in the regions where they face the closure ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tessa Charles, Accelerator Physicist, Monash University An artist’s impression of the tunnel of the proposed Future Circular Collider.CERN The Large Hadron Collider has been responsible for astounding advances in physics: the discovery of the elusive, long-sought Higgs boson as well as ...
Now that Trump has been found by a jury to be guilty of sexual assault, will Biden look any more attractive as a candidate?
Bidens polls are so so bad, can there be any upside or is MAGA contingent largely immovable?
The numbers suggest that Trump's support is pretty firm around the 42-45% mark. Good news is that the more he gets into legal trouble, the more that number becomes a ceiling rather than a floor.
Something that isn't mentioned very often amongst all these polls showing support for trump at alarming (to many) levels amongst Republicans..is that neither Republicans nor democrats decide american elections..
Those who pick the president are the third leg..the independents..
From memory registered Republicans are about 25% of voters…
(So trump's support is actually 40+% of 25% of actual voters..meh..!)
And he had his share of support from those independents when elected…but for some time now trump's support amongst independents has tanked…
So (to me) the idea of trump getting the republican nomination..is just another meh..!..and will guarantee a democrat+independents victory..
And all these media stories about trump's support are essentially alarmist bullshit-clickbait if used as a marker to him getting the job again.
(nb:..the above derives from my general knowledge/memories from studying the american political system..and I am just trying to tell those possibly fretting over those alarmist poll-squealings from the media…and the prospect of the orange clown getting another go…to just go meh..!..)
I am actually more alarmed by de santis…and would rather trump than that piece of work..
I just can't get my head around US politics. Given the population of the US, is Trump and Biden really the best they can find to lead their country?
And Trump looks like he is going to run for the Republicans again even though most polls suggest he will lose. It just doesn't make sense.
I would rank any of our leaders from either party over the last 20 years as far superior to those who the US have put up in recent times..
I thought Biden was an excellent candidate last time from everyone of either party who put their names forward. Repairing Trump's damage required someone with vast institutional knowledge, and Biden was the best person for that job in my view. Decades in the Senate and 8 years as VP is not exactly a common CV. Given the difficulties in Congress that are usually underappreciated by most, he's done about as much as anyone was likely to.
That said, the system is so different compared to here, you can't really compare them fairly. Conservative Christians are much bigger part of the electoral base than here, and the Republican Party decided to welcome them in decades ago. The country is huge and there are more powers and politics at city, county and state level, so the state parties are a lot more important than the regions are in NZ. Both major US parties have independent state parties, and often state politics means that US party is a pretty broad church with a lot more overlap than you would think from a presidential campaign.
If Democrats want to be electable in places like Utah or Texas, for example, they have to be closer to the Republican Party in those areas which means pretty conservative politics at the national level. In somewhere like Vermont where Bernie Sanders is one of their Senators, they have a Republican governor, but to get elected, he has to be closer to the local Democratic Party which means pretty liberal politics at the national level.
Biden, maybe…. But again? He is struggling now with what appears to be the onset of dementia. How will he be at the end of another term?
Ideally someone else could pick it up, but it's nearly unheard of for a current president to not be renominated if they put their name forward. https://time.com/5682760/incumbent-presidents-primary-challenges/ has the 5 occasions in the 234 years of presidencies – the most recent is Chester A Arthur in 1884. The only elected president not to be renominated after seeking reelection was Franklin Pierce in 1856 – the other 4 were Vice-Presidents who replaced presidents who had died during office.
As long as he remembers he is running, I guess.
Biden speaks at White House Correspondents' Dinner Apr 30 2023
Hardly senile. Start from about 6.30, the earlier part is about detained journalists. Well worth the watch.
Sorry, the link got stuffed up somehow. Biden speaks at WH Correspondents' dinner.
I feel you get a good measure of Biden as he works the crowd.
Immovable. Trump can do what he likes and the Ginni Thomas brigade will support him.
What does it say about the GOP and it's rump base that the only candidate they can muster is a superannuiated sex offender and insurrectionist?
I read at salon.com that this ruling – and Trump's other upcoming legal problems – may act as a bizarre incentive to keep him in the presidential race, since the DOJ will always go softly softly on any presidential candidate.
Biden's unfavourability rating is almost entirely driven by concerns over his age, he moves like a very old man and he makes very old man mistakes when talking. As long as his campaign can assure voters he is up to the job he'll easily defeat Trump.
Then roll on AOC for a tilt?
What are your thoughts on Robert F. Kennedy Jr?
Evidence that not even Camelot can escape the Hapsburg jaw turning up eventually.
Heh…!
Perfect, ha ha apart from the fact that he is a mad anti vaxxer and member of the so-called Disinformation Dozen.
https://counterhate.com/research/the-disinformation-dozen/
Who knows what other stuff he supports.
The jaw may not have 'Hapsburged' but the mind is not on a par with either JFK or RJK.
His supporters will be
He didn't do it, and if he did do it, it was her fault, and what about Hunter Biden's laptop?
Luxon has just ruled out working with the Maori Party on ZB.
Whatever anyone says about the decision, I don't think there is any doubt it is a politically astute move.
Given that Labour is not really in a position where it can do the same, there is a fairly clear choice for voters now. Especially since there is quite a furore over co-governance at the moment.
The turnout number will be of interest…I suspect it will be particularly low
Don't know about "astute". Blind Freddy could see that it's the best thing to say – because irritation with TMP and Maori more generally is a core characteristic of your base. And also present at lower intensities outside your base.
Haven't heard anybody ask Luxon if John Key was therefore wrong to work with TMP during his term in office. Luxon would most likely warble away about circumstances bring different back then – at which point a decent interviewer would nail him to the floor by asking "so if circumstances change you might work with them?' Then the vacuous, prattling burbler would cut to his prepared script about "wasteful spending" as a way of escape – and a decent interviewer would cut him short. But hey, journalists, who needs real ones?
I guess you have to take the politics of each situation in its context. I think what Key did was a forward thinking move at the time. He didn't actually need TMP when elected. But could see that having them inside the tent could be useful in future elections where he might need their support.
In this case, I have my doubts that TMP would go with National anyway even if that option was available. So, I don't think there is too much downside for National in ruling them out. And, the politics of the situation are that Labour really can't afford to do the same. So, I think TMP has become a bit of a ball and chain for Labour now.
It will be interesting to see if National will rule NZ First out as well. This could really mess with voter's heads if they have to consider National/Act versus a possible Labour/Greens/TMP/NZ First coalition.
Unfortunately I think it's more than likely the tpm will gift the election to nact. They're coming across as pretty radical
And the answer to that question is "If the circumstances change, of course I might change with them. If TMP's leadership and policies were to change, then there is a chance to talk with them. But under the current circumstances – we are ruling them out."
Simples.
Which allows follow-up questions – "Which leaders and policies do you object to" etc. etc. However it ends, you get a decent interview.
I think TMP is a lot more radical than it was back in the Key times as well.
I think in the end this will be bad for them. Because, it will end up making them politically untouchable so long as there is wide spread resistance amongst voters to the co-governance concept.
So, if National wins this time around, I think Labour will have to rule out TMP in future elections due to a coalition involving TMP being seen as politically toxic for centre voters.
So, they may well end up having a presence in parliament, but never being in the position to achieve anything for their cause.
It will be interesting to see if National rules out NZ First as well. NZ First have already ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, then there isn't much point in a protest vote to NZ First. Especially since National has already stolen NZ First's thunder by ruling out TMP.
Not much choice really, TMP base left them before because they supported National too much, to the degree that TMP lost all their MPs. Politically, TMP aren't really in a position to support National on much other than case-by-case legislation.
How strange for Luxon to be so decisive. Maybe there was no fence available for him to sit on?
Pretty slack for a man with potentially 21 boundries.
I just hope NZF gets 4.9 %-all right wing votes wasted because Peters has made it plain he will go with Luxon.
That is why I think ruling NZ First out is also a good idea. As I said, NZ First has ruled out Labour. So, if National rules out NZ First, there isn't any point voting for them.
Fed Farmers go ACT…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/300873696/from-fed-farmers-to-act-party-andrew-hoggard-goes-into-politics
Oh well, maybe the cholesterol overload will get to Mr Hoggard before he does too much damage! Bacon & eggs for breakfast, T-bone & chips for lunch, Roasted home kill beast for dinner…
Fed Farmers and their members have long been the filthiest of the dirty filthy tories when it comes down to it–profiting most of all from stolen and dubiously acquired land. They are in denial of post colonial fallout as they pour nitrates into the nation’s waterways via animal excretions from over fertilised industrial dairying operations.
For a Fed Farmers person to go ACT shows the desperation, the profitability crisis–plus they need cheap migrant labour and cruel live animal exporting and mud bog “winter farming” to keep their rate of profit up. Farmers crisis is a capitalist crisis.
It would be great to see the progressive farmer and horticulture groups coalesce together more often. Federated Farmers don't represent all farmers, and I sneakily suspect they don't represent a majority of them.
But we won't find that out until more progressive producers are prepared to poke their head above the parapet to face the next version of Howl of a Protest.
Fed Farmers is being outflanked on the right by Groundswell, which poses huge problems for the historic alliance between farmers and urban business that is the foundation of the National party.
The self-radicalisation of the right means there is a real possibility of ACT/Groundswell vying to replace National/Fed Farmers as the majoritry right wing political rural/urban alliance.
How bleak is that?
Not nearly as bleak as the coalition of chaos mustering on the left.
Thats right, because as they like to constantly remind us, the right always prefers the jackboot of Fascism to the messiness of democracy.
We have already seen chaos in Auckland resulting from climate change. And we can see the Nat-ACT boys intend to do nothing about emissions but whistle in the dark and wait for technology to turn up that will allow their farming & business backers to carry on exactly as they are – plus (maybe) some piss-weak concessions to adaptation.
When we see those things, it's completely clear who the real coalition of chaos is.
Well, the right don't like compromise or community, and see that as communism, so no real surprise that they and you? don't like listening to differing points of view.
They describe, by creating the "chaos" meme, any MMP coalition of 'other' groups, which are not Nats or Act.
Luxon thinks we only have one vote apparently, when clearly under MMP we have two.
There is a disconnect from community showing and a whiff of ‘my way’.imo.
My partner says that there are growers and farmers that are more 21st century and pro environment but they tend to be smaller producers, and some of them do get covered on the venerable “Country Calendar” these days. I have met a number in the Far North, which is a smallish, long geographic area when we do local markets so not so many baddies perhaps up here. But mid North down…
Not the first Fed worthy to have a go with ACT. Don Nicolson was ACT candidate in Clutha Southland in 2011 and 2014. He was #3 on ACT list in 2011 and #5 in 2014.
At an electorate level Nicolson got 796 votes, Tat Loo (Lab) got 5207, Bill cleaned up at 21,327. The same happened in 2014 with Todd Barclay as Nat candidate.
In both elections Nicolson's personal vote far exceeded ACT's party vote in the electorate.
OK it's a very different ACT party now but I think this illustrates that coming from a Fed Farmers presidency doesn't automatically translate to general election success.
Doubtful Hoggard could be as barking as Nicolson. But ya never know…
09:11, Jun 30 2011
Powerful people are manipulating us for their own ends, Don Nicolson believes. And the only way to defeat them is to allow free enterprise to have free rein.
The retiring president of Federated Farmers is convinced New Zealand is a victim of international job-creation schemes.
"There are senior people who absolutely know what they're doing," he says. "They've created industries by building complexity into everything. Every time they write something down – when it goes from the head to the paper – that's when we're lost."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/5211126/Free-enterprise-cooks-up-a-tasty-stew
Tat loo, wonder where he's at now, ??
Remember, tankies, a falling out between thieves delivered the USSR as an accidental ally to the West. Stalin had happily allied with Hitler to over run and divvy up large parts of Eastern Europe and provided fuel and raw materials for Hitler's invasions of Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, and the fuel to bomb London.
Anton Shekhovtsov ✚
@A_SHEKH0VTS0V
“Victory day” in Russia, celebrating the Soviet occupation of half of Europe
https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1655823472533045249
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F90c165b4-1438-11eb-bca5-e85774a5f3b9.jpg?crop=3825%2C2152%2C141%2C258
Anti Sovietism remains the territory of vacillators and cowards. Much of the world would be have been “eating Bratwurst for breakfast” if not for the Russian people and their allies of WWII.
I'm sure tens of millions of Eastern Europeans were grateful to endure the controlling oppression, forced migration, and ethnic/cultural erasure imposed on them by their post-war colonisers.
.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523688487265787906.html
It's a bit of a bastard when things don't work out quite the way you thought they would, eh.
And the Ukrainians suffered more than most as they were living in the area that much of the fighting took place in and which was occupied for a couple of years by the Nazis.
Stalin genocided 5 million Ukrainians in the early 1930s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
Not that they thank the US that provided Russia with vast amounts of equipment including over 11000 planes and 6000 tanks.
And for all that ant-Nazi talk from Russia, the Russians were very cosy with the Nazis at the start of the war.
When you mention allies of the Russian people do you mean Ukrainians?
Hitler started off by attacking Russia. I don't think he was thinking of attacking the British and French until Chamberlain declared war. The pact with Russia came about because he realized he would have deal with Western Europe first. Stalin probably went along with it because the respite gave him a chance sort out his own defenses. He probably guessed that Hitler would probably renege.
Hitler started off by attacking Russia.
You should do a little reading, friend.
The invasion of Poland (1 September – 6 October 1939) was a joint attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany, the Slovak Republic, and the Soviet Union; which marked the beginning of World War II.
Great news from Bakhmut, the Ulrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has apparently countrer-attacked and driven the Russians back 2.6km on a 3km front, a big advance in the context of the fighting there.
I mentioned the unit because it is a very interesting and a very powerful one. Formed from Azov units it is basically a fully mechanised reinforced brigade of three infantry and one tank battalion plus one each of an artillery, drone, and combat engineer battalion.
Twitter video shows close tank/infantry coooperation in a combined arms assault, which indicates the unit has benefited from western training. There are heaps and heaps of dead Russians in the imagery. Just lately a lot of video and still imagery showing very large numbers of Russian KIA have been showing up online, perhaps indicating the Ukrainians are not only inflicting very heavy losses on the Russian forces but defeating them as well and seizing/retaining control of the battle zone.
If one well trained and equipped brigade can rout the Wagner forces so thoroughly in a local counter-attack, that has got to be an encouraging sign.
US Imperialist and NATO backed…
Great news from Bakhmut indeed, and given UA has been conservative in releasing information, potentially even better news than it seems
Read something awhile ago about a NATO peer to peer based estimate that Poots needs 1900 troops /kilometre to hold a fortified front against mechanised and tank divisions that can choose to attack anywhere along the 800 kilometre front.
The Russian have built multiple lines of defense in the occupied regions along the expected axis of any Ukrainian offensive. These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefileds, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers – especially Russian airpower, which the Ukrainians have no answer – to intervene.
The outcome is not certain at all.
The issue for the Russians is manpower. To effectively defend against an attack that the Ukrainians are looking like putting together requires sufficient manpower in an area of the frontlines of 30 km of around 50 to 90 thousand troops. They can do this in upward of 90 to 100 km of the front. Unfortunately for them they need to do so for 500 km unless they pick exactly the spot the Ukrainians will focus upon.
I thought Ukraine should ask the Finnish if they could enter Russia via Karelia – encircle St Petersburg – and then negotiate.
Well, the Fins did oblige NATO with another 1,340 kilometers of border to encircle Russia…
" These lines are very formidable, consisting of minefields, strongpoints, anti-tank ditches, dragons teeth, and extensive earthworks. They don't need to be well manned, just have enough men to act as a speed bump to buy time for mobile reserves and force multipliers"
That sounds rather like the French intentions when they built the Maginot line back before WW 2. How did that work out?
Nothing like the Maginot line, a closer analogy would be the field works built by the Soviets at Kursk or possibly the Hindenburg line in WW1. The difference with Kursk is the Soviets deployed 1,900,000 men over a 260km front, and the Hindenburg line was 140km long and manned by 20 divisions, around 350-400,000 men.
Yes, I saw that. Some rather graphic footage. But, good to see the success.
I have thought for awhile that Bakhmut would be a good place to launch a counter offensive for several reasons:
Firstly, the Russians are on attack, so won't tend to be as well dug in.
Secondly, there is a good chance for Ukraine to do a pincer movement by attacking from either side of the flanks, and effectively encircling a lot of Russian and Wagner soldiers.
Update: this Ukrainian attack saw the combat debut of the Bradley IFV. At least a pair of them were involved and the destroyed at least four BMPs with ease. The BMP is completely outclassed by the Bradley.
Even if the medical establishment refrain from to doing so, eventually the insurance companies will objectively assess risk:
https://genderclinicnews.substack.com/p/exposed
The risks to the insurer are completely different to any medical risks to the people treated by private physicians. The insurer’s decision was purely commercial and protecting the business, if that’s what you mean with “objectively”.
kind of like with climate change. The insurance companies see the writing on the wall before the general public or the professions/industries.
They are socialising the losses/risks to state-funded clinics and hospitals. It is purely a commercial decision. In Oregon, they went the other way, as per the article.
well, yes, obviously the insurance company's motivation is commercial, but the basis for that decision is complex and important social and medical issues. There's an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the overmedicalisation of teens and children. Likewise with climate.
In Oregon the state is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures. In Australia the insurer is withdrawing cover for surgeons if they are involved in claims from surgery that leaves detrans people with permanent disability (sued or prosecuted, I'm unclear from the article). Two different kinds of insurance.
The former is ideological against evidence and safe practice. Good to see detransition surgery covered, but it's pretty fucked up to enforce a questionable system and then pay for remedial surgery to try and mitigate the entirely predictable mistakes and damage. My guess is the state is overriding the insurance sector's commercial motivations.
The latter is the insurance company having watched what is happening with both detrans legal cases internationally, as well as research.
I think that both Molly and you are conflating different types of risks involved in medical transition for minors. The insurer's decision is based on the risk of legal liability for potential claims arising from unhappy or harmed patients who may sue for malpractice or negligence. This risk is influenced by the strength of evidence for the safety and efficacy of the treatments, the quality of informed consent obtained from the patients and their parents, and the availability of alternative options for addressing gender dysphoria. The insurer's decision is not based on the risk of medical harm to the patients themselves, which is a separate issue that should be evaluated by qualified health professionals on a case-by-case basis.
You also said that Oregon is forcing insurers to provide cover for medical procedures, but this is not entirely correct. The State of Oregon is requiring insurers to cover gender-affirming treatments that are deemed medically necessary by a health care provider, which may include cosmetic services or revisions to prior treatments. This does not mean that insurers have to cover any procedure that a patient requests, but rather that they have to follow the professional judgment of the provider. This is different from Australia, where the insurer is withdrawing cover for doctors who assess or initiate gender transition for patients under 18, regardless of their professional judgment or the hospital setting. In effect, the Australian insurer is removing the ability of doctors to act on sound clinical judgement.
Yes, I agree with you that there is an irony in insurance companies reigning in the excesses of neoliberalism and the over-medicalisation of teens and children, but I also think that there is a danger in relying on insurance companies to determine the standard of care for complex and controversial medical issues. Insurance companies are not neutral judges of scientific evidence or ethical principles; they are profit-driven entities that may have ulterior motives or conflicts of interest. They may also be influenced by political or social pressures, such as transphobic backlash or litigation threats. It seems to me that this might be another cynical ploy in yet another culture war (or is it just one big one?), which is why some appear to be rejoicing at this decision. Only more independent research and better guidelines for health professionals and patients is going to lead to better options for treatment, which includes psychological treatment.
We've seen this with earthquake cover in Wellington, where properties are unable to get cover, if they are not up to Govt standards. It's an issue with apartments in particular (the complication of strata title, as well as costs being beyond the ability of some residents to pay).
We're starting to see it with climate risk insurance.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/131169361/owners-of-floodprone-homes-will-pay-more-for-insurance
And, IMO, the sooner the better. Wealthy people can strong-arm the council with constant legal challenges to get to build what they want to, where they want to. They have no leverage over insurers. If they don't find the risk acceptable, they won't touch it with a barge pole.
Fair enough. Sensible…..enforces, hopefully, a period of what I call 'watchful waiting' until the person is 18 & over. The rush to transition and also the 'contagion' whereby groups of younger ones find a need to transition may abate by that stage with the move to new friends, moving on, time…….
To me it doesn't matter how a slow down occurs, whether by sensible society moves or by a withdrawing of insurance cover as long as the current madness is slowed.
Quote from the article
‘A physician who follows the gender clinic controversy told GCN he believed “this whole treatment area [of medicalised gender change for minors] has gone ahead without adequate evidence of, firstly, efficacy, and, secondly, safety’.
There is good dicussion in the article about the concept that this withdrawal of cover may force the consideration of requests to a multi group of specialists in a hospital setting. This can often include psychiatric help which has been lacking up until now.
Jordan Peterson who has not been my flavour of the month, has really risen in my estimation with his interviews drawing on his professional knowledge of the mental health and consent aspects.
The insurer is simply cutting its business risks it’s exposed to, it says so in the article. Anyway:
Your hopeful wish for 'watchful waiting' might be granted, especially when other insurers follow suit.
Yes the business is cutting its risks and you could say that this is because gender affirmation by chemicals designed to treat prostate cancer etcplus cross hormones, or 'heroic' ((meaning anything but) surgery as penises are fashioned out of forearms, made into vaginas, unnecessary hysterectomies and breast removals are done) is a risky business without much of a scientific or medical backing behind it.
The company would have thin grounds on which to support a member who may be taken to court.
To me it does not matter where the stopping comes from….having insurers cut back on costs for claiming and meeting litigation costs cases & the consequent restricting of access is as good a way as any.
Actually there is a lack of data, full stop, worldwide let alone 'good' data. An example is in Sweden which has pulled back on hormonal interventions…
https://segm.org/segm-summary-sweden-prioritizes-therapy-curbs-hormones-for-gender-dysphoric-youth
…
I think Finland & France have too.
I'm no fan of Greenwald but this is damn tough.
Awe Glenn taku arohanui kia koe me to whanau i tenei pouritanga. Kia kaha, kia maia, kia manawanui.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/david-miranda-brazilian-congressman-and-husband-of-glenn-greenwald-dies-at-37-after-9-month-icu-battle/ar-AA1aWV84
When RWNJ's take over.
Teachers grew particularly alarmed early this year when word spread that Ken Witt, the new superintendent, did not plan to reapply for grants that covered the salaries of counselors and social workers.
At Gateway Elementary School in March, Witt told staff members he prioritized academic achievement, not students’ emotions. “We are not the department of health and human services,” he said, as teachers angrily objected, according to two recordings of the meeting made by staff members and shared with NBC News.
Someone in the meeting asked if taxpayers would get a say in these changes, and Witt said that they already did — when they elected the school board.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/woodland-park-colorado-school-board-conservatives-rcna83311
Wow!
Not surprising the Bible makes an appearance in that particular little corner of looneyville. The surprise is the district superintendent is Ken Witt. 'Frank' would've suited him better then he officially could have been 'F Witt.'
(Board meetings go on line. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R5eyqjK0po)